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Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.

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ken.mccarthy@cushwake.com
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JUNE 6, 2014
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
RESEARCH REPORT
WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE:
MAY EMPLOYMENT REPORT
THE GOOD NEWS IS IN THE DETAILS

129,000
130,000
131,000
132,000
133,000
134,000
135,000
136,000
137,000
138,000
139,000
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
(Thousands of Persons)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Jan'08-138,365
May'14-138,463
FOUR STRAIGHT MONTHS
Payroll employment in the U.S.
increased by 217,000 jobs in May,
almost exactly what was expected.
There was very little revision to the
preceding two months. As a result,
payrolls increased by more than 200,000 jobs per month
in each of the past four months, the longest monthly
streak with 200,000 or more jobs added since 2000.
With this increase, payroll employment, the U.S. has
finally recovered from the recession. For the first time
since January 2008, employment is at a new all-time high.
Over the past four months, employment has increased at
an average of 231,000 jobs per month, an annual rate of
2.8 million jobs.
The growth in employment was broad based across
almost every major sector, with large increases in
professional and business services (+55,000); education
and health (+63,000) and leisure and hospitality
(+39,000).
One unusual decline was in the information sector,
where employment fell by 5,000 jobs. This decline was
entirely due to a 9,200 person decline in the motion
picture and broadcasting industry. Over the past year
employment in this industry has plunged by 15%.
Office-using employment (the sum of financial,
professional and business services and information)
increased by 53,000 jobs, continuing the healthy growth
that has characterized these sectors throughout the
recovery. In other CRE-related sectors, employment in
retail trade climbed 12,500 jobs and distribution-related
employment rose by 26,300 jobs.
Within the employment report, there were a lot of
positive nuggets of information suggesting that the
economy continues to get healthier. Sixty percent of
industries recorded an increase in employment in May
from April and 70% had more jobs today than six
months ago. Average hourly earnings were up 2.4% from
a year ago-not great, but a year ago at this time earnings
were up 1.9%-so wage growth is gradually improving,
which will raise incomes.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3% as
the labor force grew modestly. There were a couple of
the details from the household survey (from which the
unemployment rate is calculated) that point to a
healthier labor market.
The share of unemployed people who left their
job rose to 8.9%. It was at that level in June
2013, but prior to that this share last reached
these levels in October 2008. When people
voluntarily leave their job they are optimistic
about finding another or already have, so an
increase in job leavers suggests an improving
labor market.
June 6, 2014

The median number of weeks people have
remained unemployed fell to 14.6, the lowest
since late 2008, suggesting that people are finding
jobs more quickly.
The U-6 unemployment rate, which adds in
people who are working part time and those
who are discouraged, fell to 12.2%, the lowest
level since October 2008 when the financial
crisis hit with full force.
The combination of healthy, steady job growth along
with positive underlying details suggests that the
economy is now entering a new phase of growth. It is
still a bit early to get overly optimistic, but everything is
pointing toward healthier labor markets and stronger job
growth in the months ahead. This will lead to faster
income growth, rising household demand and a stronger
housing sector.
This outlook, if it comes through, means that the Federal
Reserve will continue to steadily taper its purchases of
long term securities in the months ahead and will begin
to set the stage for higher interest rates late this year
and in early 2015.
For the commercial real estate sector, the economic
fundamentals are getting better. Job growth will boost
demand for office space, income growth will boost retail
sales and rising consumer demand will lead to stronger
growth in manufacturing and distribution.
It all starts with jobs. With four months of healthy
growth now in place and the fundamentals looking
stronger, we are optimistic that the U.S. economy is on
pace to grow strongly through the balance of the year.


8.9%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Job Leavers as Percent of Unemployed
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

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