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Payroll employment in the u.s. Increased by 217,000 jobs in may, almost exactly what was expected. Over the past four months, employment has increased at an average of 231,000 jobs per month, an annual rate of 2. Million jobs. Employment growth was broad based across almost every major sector, with large increases in professional and business services, education and health.
Payroll employment in the u.s. Increased by 217,000 jobs in may, almost exactly what was expected. Over the past four months, employment has increased at an average of 231,000 jobs per month, an annual rate of 2. Million jobs. Employment growth was broad based across almost every major sector, with large increases in professional and business services, education and health.
Payroll employment in the u.s. Increased by 217,000 jobs in may, almost exactly what was expected. Over the past four months, employment has increased at an average of 231,000 jobs per month, an annual rate of 2. Million jobs. Employment growth was broad based across almost every major sector, with large increases in professional and business services, education and health.
New York, NY 10104 www.cushmanwakefield.com For more information, contact: Ken McCarthy, Chief Economist (212) 698 2502 ken.mccarthy@cushwake.com The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. 1
JUNE 6, 2014 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication RESEARCH REPORT WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE: MAY EMPLOYMENT REPORT THE GOOD NEWS IS IN THE DETAILS
129,000 130,000 131,000 132,000 133,000 134,000 135,000 136,000 137,000 138,000 139,000 Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Thousands of Persons) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan'08-138,365 May'14-138,463 FOUR STRAIGHT MONTHS Payroll employment in the U.S. increased by 217,000 jobs in May, almost exactly what was expected. There was very little revision to the preceding two months. As a result, payrolls increased by more than 200,000 jobs per month in each of the past four months, the longest monthly streak with 200,000 or more jobs added since 2000. With this increase, payroll employment, the U.S. has finally recovered from the recession. For the first time since January 2008, employment is at a new all-time high. Over the past four months, employment has increased at an average of 231,000 jobs per month, an annual rate of 2.8 million jobs. The growth in employment was broad based across almost every major sector, with large increases in professional and business services (+55,000); education and health (+63,000) and leisure and hospitality (+39,000). One unusual decline was in the information sector, where employment fell by 5,000 jobs. This decline was entirely due to a 9,200 person decline in the motion picture and broadcasting industry. Over the past year employment in this industry has plunged by 15%. Office-using employment (the sum of financial, professional and business services and information) increased by 53,000 jobs, continuing the healthy growth that has characterized these sectors throughout the recovery. In other CRE-related sectors, employment in retail trade climbed 12,500 jobs and distribution-related employment rose by 26,300 jobs. Within the employment report, there were a lot of positive nuggets of information suggesting that the economy continues to get healthier. Sixty percent of industries recorded an increase in employment in May from April and 70% had more jobs today than six months ago. Average hourly earnings were up 2.4% from a year ago-not great, but a year ago at this time earnings were up 1.9%-so wage growth is gradually improving, which will raise incomes. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3% as the labor force grew modestly. There were a couple of the details from the household survey (from which the unemployment rate is calculated) that point to a healthier labor market. The share of unemployed people who left their job rose to 8.9%. It was at that level in June 2013, but prior to that this share last reached these levels in October 2008. When people voluntarily leave their job they are optimistic about finding another or already have, so an increase in job leavers suggests an improving labor market. June 6, 2014
The median number of weeks people have remained unemployed fell to 14.6, the lowest since late 2008, suggesting that people are finding jobs more quickly. The U-6 unemployment rate, which adds in people who are working part time and those who are discouraged, fell to 12.2%, the lowest level since October 2008 when the financial crisis hit with full force. The combination of healthy, steady job growth along with positive underlying details suggests that the economy is now entering a new phase of growth. It is still a bit early to get overly optimistic, but everything is pointing toward healthier labor markets and stronger job growth in the months ahead. This will lead to faster income growth, rising household demand and a stronger housing sector. This outlook, if it comes through, means that the Federal Reserve will continue to steadily taper its purchases of long term securities in the months ahead and will begin to set the stage for higher interest rates late this year and in early 2015. For the commercial real estate sector, the economic fundamentals are getting better. Job growth will boost demand for office space, income growth will boost retail sales and rising consumer demand will lead to stronger growth in manufacturing and distribution. It all starts with jobs. With four months of healthy growth now in place and the fundamentals looking stronger, we are optimistic that the U.S. economy is on pace to grow strongly through the balance of the year.
8.9% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Job Leavers as Percent of Unemployed Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,