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The weekly briefing | 9 June 2014

Political and security risk updates


Africa: Hundreds killed in village raids as Boko Haram tigtens grip on norteast
!igeria"
Americas: #orty$fourt general assem%ly of te Organisation of &merican 'tates
reveals gro(ing dissension"
Asia and Pacific: Pilippine intelligence suggests )ina as %egun reclaiming
contested land in 'out )ina 'ea"
Europe: *+ leaders treaten ,ussia (it additional sanctions follo(ing Brussels
meeting"
Middle East: -iolence flares in Houti re%ellion in nortern .emen"
Polar regions: ,ussia/s ,osneft promises 0400 %illion of &rctic investments"
&frica
Hundreds killed in village raids as oko Haram tightens grip on northeast
!igeria
& coordinated attack %y te 1'$designated terrorist organisation Boko Haram killed
appro2imately 300 people in Borno state4 !igeria4 on 3 June" &rmed men dressed in
military fatigues attacked te villages of 5an6ara4 &gapal(a and &tagara in te local
government area of *(o7a4 targeting residents4 setting fire to omes and forcing
surviving villagers to flee into te *(o7a Hills and neig%ouring )ameroon" 8e area
remains under insurgent control despite a temporary (itdra(al of re%el forces
follo(ing retaliatory air strikes %y te !igerian military on 4 June" & furter attack
took place 104 kilometres nort(est of *(o7a on 9 June in te to(n of Bardari4 on
te outskirts of :aiduguri4 resulting in 49 fatalities"
Bot te fre;uency and letality of Boko Haram operations ave increased
dramatically over recent monts4 demonstrating te gro(ing capacity of te
insurgency to conduct armed operations in te norteast of !igeria" #urtermore4
President *oodluck Jonatan/s reluctance to deploy ground forces against Boko
Haram due to significant operational risks is symptomatic of te gro(ing control
Boko Haram olds over te remote norteast of te country" <it raids conducted
%y te !igerian military on several ma6or ne(spaper distri%ution outlets in te
capital city of &%u6a on + June4 it is also clear tat te !igerian government is
scram%ling to respond to gro(ing internal criticism regarding te mismanagement
of te conflict"
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8e Boko Haram insurgency as generated an estimated 124000 casualties since its formation %y
:oammed .usef in 2002" 8e !igerian government is e2periencing gro(ing political pressure %ot at
ome and a%road due to a perceived ina%ility to effectively suppress insurgent activities4 despite
increased support from several <estern countries" <it Boko Haram tigtening its grip on norteast
!igeria4 and follo(ing te igly salient international media coverage of te a%duction of more tan 200
scoolgirls %y te group in &pril 20144 Jonatan is under increasing pressure to respond effectively
against te gro(ing and increasingly (ell organised insurgency"
#ther developments
A $nited !ations report has disputed claims of genocide in the %entral African &epublic '%A&()
instead listing evidence that both sides in the conflict have committed war crimes and crimes against
humanity* 8e commission of in;uiry=s preliminary report4 (ic emerged on 9 June4 appears to
contradict an earlier 1! uman rigts report (arning of etnic cleansing occurring in te confrontation
%et(een te predominantly )ristian anti$Balaka and :uslim '>l>ka armed groups" &ccording to te
latest report4 te displacement of :uslim civilians sould %e treated as a umanitarian emergency4 not as
a ;uestion of etnic cleansing" !eig%ouring countries4 especially )ad4 ave also come under increasing
scrutiny for aiding te accused groups4 raising concerns over te internationalisation of te sectarian
conflict"
Malian authorities arrested a group accused of plotting against President +brahim oubacar ,eita on
- .une* 8e group is tougt to ave %een led %y ?ieutenant :oamed Ouattara4 an army officer in an
elite unit considered close to disposed leader &madou 8oumani 8oure" :ali=s army is dealing (it
declining popular support follo(ing an em%arrassing defeat %y 8uareg separatists in te re%el strongold
of @idal last mont4 (en 1! and #renc peacekeepers refused to intervene" An a %id to consolidate te
support of te :alian armed force4 te @eita government announced te introduction of compulsory
national service for men and (omen on 9 June"
More than /00 inmates escaped from ukavu prison in the eastern 1emocratic &epublic of %ongo
'1&%( on 2 .une resulting in si2 reported fatalities and te recapture 39 escapees" <it an estimated
14900 prisoners in te prison at te time of te incident4 it is possi%le tat many more could ave escaped"
8e inmates managed to open te prison doors after sei7ing (eapons from te guards" Bscapes are
common in te 5,) as prisons are often overcro(ded and mismanaged"
#n the radar
The $! 3ecurity %ouncil is to receive a long4awaited briefing on 5ibya by Tarek Mitri) ead of
te 1! 'upport :ission in ?i%ya C1!':A?D4 on 9 June4 to %e follo(ed %y consultations"
The $! stabilisation mission in Mali 'M+!$3MA( is due to publish its report on 10 June"
The !ew Patriotic Party '!PP( plan to rally in ,usami) 6hana) on 10 June against government
policies"
$3 President arack #bama is e7pected to announce the first $3 ambassador to 3omalia) to
%e %ased in !airo%i4 @enya4 follo(ing t(o decades of civil (ar"
A $! report on strategy in the 3ahel region is due to be published this week*

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&mericas
8orty4fourth general assembly of the #rganisation of American 3tates reveals growing dissension
8e 44t general assem%ly of te Organisation of &merican 'tates CO&'D took place in Paraguay/s capital4
&sunciEn4 from 3 to 9 June" 8e O&' is a regional organisation composed of 34 mem%er states4 (ic
addresses matters of security4 (it its ead;uarters in <asington4 1nited 'tates" 8e general assem%ly
dre( to a close (it te signing of te &sunciEn 5eclaration4 a set of resolutions revolving around te
issues of development and social inclusion" 8e declaration esta%lised a commitment to eradicate unger
and poverty4 and com%at ine;ualities4 discrimination and social e2clusion" At also includes resolutions
aimed at improving e;ual access to ealt services4 and promoting an inclusive and ig$;uality
educational system" Ho(ever4 te O&' mem%er states remain igly divided over te political crisis in
-ene7uela4 te e2tent of te 6urisdiction of te Anter$&merican )ommission on Human ,igts CA)H,D4 and
te proposed inclusion of )u%a (itin te organisation" :ost of te disputes oppose 1'$led policy in ?atin
&merican states" An 20104 a group of 'out &merican leaders founded te )ommunity of ?atin &merican
and )ari%%ean 'tates C)B?&)D4 (ic is often perceived as a counter%alance to te O&'"
8ree ma6or resolutions (ere approved during te O&' general assem%ly" #irstly4 mem%er states ave
agreed tat )u%a (ill %e allo(ed to participate in ne2t year/s 'ummit of te &mericas4 (ic is to take
place in Panama" 8is represents an initial step in te admission of )u%a into te O&'4 from (ic it (as
e2pelled in 19F2 due to 1' pressure during te )old <ar" Only at te 39t general assem%ly4 in 20094 (as
te suspension revoked" 'econdly4 te organisation issued a 6oint$declaration regarding te #alklands
issue" 'peareaded %y &rgentine #oreign :inister H>ctor 8imerman4 and %acked %y Bra7il4 te declaration
calls for a return to %ilateral negotiations %et(een Britain and &rgentina" Historically4 &rgentina as used
te O&' as a platform to raise territorial claims on te #alkland Aslands" 8irdly4 a resolution (as approved
for a superficial reform of te A)H," 8e recent cange strengtens te commission/s capacity to old
sessions a(ay from its ead;uarters in <asington" O&' 'ecretary *eneral Jos> :iguel Ansul7a re6ected
te original motion4 from Bcuador4 (ic demanded te A)H, ead;uarters %e moved out of te 1nited
'tates" )ountries suc as Bcuador and -ene7uela are regular targets of criticism from te A)H,4 especially
(it regard to te issue of press freedom" &s a result4 %ot countries ave sougt to (eaken te
tri%unal/s pro(ess and make it su%sidiary to national 6urisdictions"
An recent years4 te 1nited 'tates as %ecome more rela2ed (it regards to its policies to(ards te )u%an
government4 (ic ave traditionally sougt to marginalise te communist country %ot economically and
politically" Ho(ever4 it remains unlikely tat )u%a (ill 6oin te O&' in te near future4 as te organisation/s
carter demands te democratic nature of all mem%er states" #urtermore4 as demonstrated %y te case
of te A)H,4 te O&' as proven particularly reluctant to implement reforms tat empo(er ?atin
&merican states at te e2pense of 1' interests and te institution/s autonomy" )onse;uently4 )B?&)
represents an increasingly potent counter%alance to te 1'$founded O&'"

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#ther developments
%olombia9s incumbent president) .uan Manuel 3antos) secured the support of the left4wing party
ahead of the runoff vote on 12 .une* )andidate )lara ?Epe7 of te left$(ing &lternative 5emocratic
Pole gave er support to 'antos/s candidacy on 4 June4 after collecting 19"2G of te vote at te first round
of te presidential election on 29 :ay" 8e announcement came one (eek after 'antos/s rival4 Oscar AvHn
Iuluaga4 formed an alliance (it rigt$(ing candidate :arta ?ucJa ,amJre7 of te )onservative Party" 8e
*reen Party eaded %y Bnri;ue PeKalosa4 (ic came fourt (it L"3G of te vote4 as not yet e2pressed
its preference for eiter candidate" 8e main callenge for te t(o contenders (ill %e to garner support
among te sare of te population tat did not vote in te first round of te elections"
3ubway workers have launched an open4ended strike in 3:o Paulo) ra;il9s economic capital) days
before the first <orld %up match* On 4 June4 te su%(ay (orkers union declared an open$ended strike
in order to demand a 12"2G (age ike" &s a result4 te transport system of te country/s most populated
city (as plunged into disarray" 'everal clases %et(een protestors and security forces ave also occurred"
8e 'Mo Paulo metro is te main link to te city/s <orld )up stadium4 and te strike could force organisers
to searc for last$minute transportation alternatives for tousands of fans" On 9 June4 a 6udge is e2pected
to (eig te legality of te strike" 8e 2014 <orld )up %egins on 12 June in 'Mo Paulo"
Anti4government marches were staged in Haiti9s capital) Port4au4Prince) on 2 .une* 8e demonstration
gatered te support of an estimate of 94000 people4 and triggered several clases (it police forces4 %ut
no serious in6uries (ere reported" 8e protestors demanded te resignation of President :icel :artelly4
(o tey accuse of corruption and mismanagement of te country/s economy" :artelly (as elected in
:ay 2011 (it FLG of te vote and strong support among te yout electorateN o(ever4 anti$
governmental protests ave gro(n increasingly common in recent monts amid criticism from te
opposition regarding te legitimacy of te electoral system" An an attempt to diffuse te crisis4 :artelly
as met (it several senators %ut failed to reac an agreement (it te potential ne( leaders of te
Provisional Blectoral )ouncil"
#n the radar
8A&% announced a unilateral ceasefire from = to /0 .une during )olom%ia/s presidential
election"
8ifth &+%3 summit to take place in 8ortale;a) ra;il) on 19 July"
8urther labour strikes e7pected in ra;il aead of te <orld cup"
Protests likely to intensify in >ene;uela9s main cities amid te ongoing political crisis"
Members of the Patriotic 8orce for the &espect of the %onstitution '8#PA&%( and the
Patriotic Movement of 1emocratic #pposition 'M#P#1( plan to stage further anti4
government demonstrations on 10 June in Port$au$Prince4 Haiti"

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&sia and Pacific
Philippine intelligence suggests %hina has begun reclaiming contested land in 3outh %hina 3ea
On + June4 potograpic intelligence depicted a )inese vessel using a %ackoe to engage in Oeartmoving
activities/" 8e action as %een seen %y Pilippine officials as an act of reclamation" 8e )inese sip as
allegedly %een gatering filling materials in contested reefs near te 'pratly Aslands in order to allo( for
te construction of airstrips on disputed islands" 8e vessel as also reportedly %een seen arvesting
endangered species4 specifically giant clams" & spokesman from te Pilippine defence department stated
tat te actions (ere trou%ling not only due to te current territorial dispute %ut also (it regard to
concerns over endangered species in te reefs"
An #e%ruary4 te Pilippine government reported it ad gatered similar intelligence tat te )inese (ere
conducting e2cavations in order to reclaim territory on *avin ,eef and )alderon ,eef" Pilippine
government officials ave also alleged tat )ina as reclaimed land on :alvar ,eef and :a%ini ,eef"
Barlier tis (eek4 an international tri%unal4 te Permanent )ourt of &r%itration in 8e Hague CP)&D4
imposed a si2$mont deadline on Bei6ing to present its case" An :arc4 te Pilippines filed an international
la(suit against )ina4 seeking te invalidation of )ina/s O!ine$5as ?ine/4 a istorical line of maritime
demarcation derived from ancient )inese maps" 8e )inese foreign ministry/s spokesman4 Hong ?ei4
stated on 9 June tat Bei6ing does not accept4 and (ill not participate in4 te Pilippines/s ar%itration
against )ina"
,ecently4 )ina as %een increasingly em%roiled in territorial disputes in te 'out and Bast )ina 'eas"
<ile :anila argues tat )ina/s !ine$5as ?ine violates te 1! )onvention on te ?a( of te 'ea
C1!)?O'D4 )ina maintains tat it discovered many of te contested islands and reefs over t(o millennia
ago" Andeed4 )ina/s operation of an oil rig in (aters disputed %y -ietnam sparked anti$)inese protests in
-ietnam4 (ic reportedly led to te deats of several )inese nationals last mont" 8is incident
illustrates te increasing risks associated (it Bei6ing/s assertions of sovereignty" &t te same time4 te
international community as %een particularly prudent over )ina/s recent actions" 8e 1nited 'tates as
reaffirmed its support for te Pilippines and assured Japan tat te 1'$Japan 5efence 8reaty includes
protection of te 5iaoyu C'enkakuD Aslands" &dditionally4 Japanese Prime :inister 'in7o &%e as recently
moved to e2pand 8okyo/s security role in te region" 8us4 as te international community %ecomes more
assertive against Bei6ing/s actions and as )ina ignores esta%lised international norms4 suc as
engagement (it conflict$resolution mecanisms like te P)&4 tensions are likely to intensify"
#ther developments
The !epalese army is e7pected to finalise a military assistance deal with +ndia* &t te 11t meeting of
te !epal$Andia Bilateral )onsultative *roup on 'ecurity Assues4 te Andian and !epalese foreign ministries
are e2pected to sign an arms deal tat is set to include te transfer of letal (eapons from Andia to !epal"
Andia as not made suc an agreement (it !epal in nearly nine years" ?ast year4 Andia %egan te limited
supply of non$letal supplies to !epal4 including armoured veicles and eavy and ligt military transport
veicles" Andia ad restricted military support to !epal follo(ing former @ing *yanendra 'a/s crackdo(n
on certain democratic freedoms in 2009" 8is year/s deal is e2pected to include over 2F4000 (eapons4
including rifles4 landmines4 detonators and oter forms of e2plosives" 8e deliveries are e2pected to %egin
reacing !epal (itin one (eek"
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+ndonesian officials order military and police forces to maintain neutrality in elections* On F June4
Andonesian media reported tat an individual purporting to %e a military non$commissioned officer (as
attempting to persuade residents to vote for te former military commander4 Pra%o(o 'u%ianto4 in a
mainly )inese and )ristian community in Jakarta" :em%ers of te police and military are proi%ited
from campaigning and voting in Andonesian elections" #riday/s incident follo(ed allegations tat mem%ers
of te military (ere coercing residents in central Jakarta to pledge teir votes to 'u%ianto" &dditional
reports ave alleged tat several political parties ad approaced mem%ers of te military to ask for teir
support in te upcoming election" Andonesia/s presidential elections (ill %e eld on 9 July"
!early ")000 people gathered in 3ingapore on @ .une to protest the management of 3ingapore9s
state4run pension system* 8ere is (idespread pu%lic discontent against te )entral Provident #und/s
C)P#D perceived ina%ility to meet te needs of lo(er$ and middle$income pensioners in 'ingapore"
,ecently4 one protester4 ,oy !gerng4 alleged tat Prime :inister ?ee Hsien ?oong ad misappropriated
)P# funds" 8e prime minister as since launced a defamation suit against !gerng" Prominent local
autor )aterine ?im pu%lised an open letter to ?ee regarding te protests4 citing tese demonstrations
as an indication tat 'ingaporean society is trou%led %y a Ocrisis of trust/4 (erein te people do not trust
teir government" 8e letter as garnered (idespread attention online" 8e prime minister/s office as
stated tat tey intend to revie( te pension system in te near future"
#n the radar
#fficials in the Philippines are e7pected to arrest and try three top officials on carges of
corruption and em%e77lement tis (eek"
!ew +ndian Prime Minister !arendra Modi will visit .apan in July"
Top officials from order 6uard angladesh) the country9s border security bureau) will hold
talks in urma tis (eek"
3outh ,orea and !ew Aealand will hold free trade discussions ne2t (eek"
5eaders of Thailand9s &ed 3hirt movement have announced that they will temporarily end
protest activity to reorganise*

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Burope
6@ leaders threaten &ussia with additional sanctions following russels meeting
#ollo(ing talks %et(een *+ leaders on 4 and 9 June in Brussels4 Belgium4 te *+ issued a (arning to
,ussia treatening furter sectorial sanctions if te @remlin continues to implement its current policies
to(ards 1kraine" 8e *+ countries reaffirmed tat teir governments (ould not accept ,ussia/s
anne2ation of )rimea in :arc and called for ,ussia to engage (it te ne( 1krainian president4 Petro
Porosenko4 and to e2ert :osco(/s influence to stop te flo( of armed insurgents over te ,ussian
%order into eastern 1kraine" *erman )ancellor &ngela :erkel said tat te *+ leaders ad unanimously
agreed te course of action re;uired to address te situation in 1kraine"
Bcoing is <estern partners/ comments4 1' President Barack O%ama criticised recent ,ussian actions as
aving furter desta%ilised eastern 1kraine and raised ;uestions regarding te legality of tese actions"
Ho(ever4 despite te stark (arnings of furter sanction impositions %y *+ mem%er states4 O%ama urged
is ,ussian counterpart4 -ladimir Putin4 to old direct talks (it Porosenko on o( to end te current
crisis4 asserting tat if te @remlin took appropriate action4 te 1nited 'tates and oter <estern countries
(ould %e (illing to re%uild teir relations (it ,ussia" An a positive sift to(ards political dialogue4
:osco( announced on 9 June tat te ,ussian am%assador to 1kraine (ould return to is post and
attended Porosenko/s inauguration" 8en on F June4 Porosenko and Putin met for te first time (en
(orld leaders gatered to mark te seventiet anniversary of te 5$5ay landings"
At is clear tat %y increasing te economic costs of continued ,ussian interference in eastern 1kraine4 *+
mem%er states aim to portray a political resolution as a significantly more attractive option for te ,ussian
#ederation" An con6unction (it te treat of (ide$ranging sanctions4 te 1nited 'tates4 in particular4 as
pledged 09 million in military aid to @iev4 in addition to te 01L million in general aid offered in early
:arc4 in order to furter %olster te pysical cost of ,ussian interference in eastern 1kraine" 8e
imposition of tese (ider$ranging sanctions (ill ultimately depend on :osco(/s (illingness to engage in
meaningful dialogue (it @ievN o(ever4 given te mounting costs of non$cooperation a political solution
to te 1krainian crisis is more likely"
#ther developments
Petro Poroshenko was inaugurated as president of $kraine on @ .une* Barlier4 during a visit to *ermany
on 9 June4 Porosenko announced tat @iev/s priorities (ere figting corruption4 6udicial reforms and
decentralisation of te country/s governance in line (it te Polis model of devolution" &t te 6oint press
conference4 te *erman )ancellor &ngela :erkel pledged to support 1kraine/s future economic
development and to %uild peaceful and safe living conditions for all 1krainian people"
#n 2 .une) the A;erbaiBani state oil company) 3ocar) resumed gas supplies to &ussia* 'ocar/s )BO4
,ovnag &%dullayev4 announced tat te daily flo( of gas from &7er%ai6an to ,ussia (ould fluctuate
%et(een 2 to 2"9 million cu%ic metres" 8e ,ussia gas company *a7prom signed a supplying agreement
(it 'ocar in Octo%er 20094 and e2tended te deal to a furter five years in 2012" Ho(ever4 &7er%ai6an
alted gas supplies to ,ussia on 13 January 2014 due to tecnical reasons" ,ecently4 &7er%ai6an as sougt
to diversify te countries it e2ports to4 (it te announcement of plans for a ne( 8rans$&driatic Pipeline
in colla%oration (it &l%ania" Ho(ever4 te country still depends on ,ussia as its main importer"
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#n - .une) the European %ommission announced that it has recommended that Albania be granted
candidate status for the European $nion* 8e )ommission said tat te Buropean 1nion recognised te
progress made %y te country4 and encouraged &l%ania to persevere (it furter reforms" At is e2pected
tat Buropean mem%ers (ill vote on te candidate status %y te end of June" &l%ania applied for te
candidate status in 2009N o(ever4 te Buropean 1nion ad previously %een un(illing to move for(ard
(it te application due to te country/s tense political situation and te lack of reforms regarding te
ig levels of corruption and crime and te comparatively (eak 6udicial system"
#n the radar
European $nion45eague of Arab 3tates ministerial meeting to be held in Athens) 6reece) on
10$11 June"
European Parliament budget committee meeting to discuss the draft European $nion budget
to %e presented on 11 June"
Prince 8elipe of 3pain will be crowned king on 1L June"
The European 1ialogue on +nternet 6overnance will be held in 3trasbourg) 8rance) on 12 June4
discussing B1 citi7ens= rigts to privacy and e2pression"
:iddle Bast
>iolence flares in Houthi rebellion in northern Demen
&t least 120 people (ere killed on 2 June in figting %et(een 'ia Houti re%els and government forces in
nortern Omran province4 .emen" 8e deputy governor of Omran province4 &med al$Bakry4 said tat 100
re%els and 20 soldiers ad %een killed during figting and air strikes on Houti positions" At is tougt tat
te clases erupted after military officials and mem%ers of te 'unni &l$Asla party attempted to remove
'ia Houti re%els from a strategic position near te provincial capital of Omran4 2L miles nort(est of
te capital4 'anaa" ,e%el figters and tri%al militia attacked telecommunications and a prison and set up
road%locks in retaliation" 8e .emeni army carried out airstrikes tat killed at least 19 figters on 3 June"
Bot Houti re%els and government forces agreed on a ceasefire on 4 June"
8e .emeni government as %een figting Houti re%els sporadically since 2004" Ho(ever4 mass protests
in 2011 ave left .emen in turmoil4 (it te military struggling to restore nation(ide control as it %attles
against al$Paeda in te &ra%ian Peninsula C&P&PD4 separatists in te sout and te Houti re%ellion in te
nort" 8e Houti are 'ia Iaidi4 a %ranc of te 'ia Amamiya of Aran" 8ey ave flourised follo(ing te
removal of former President &li &%dulla 'ale Q under (om tey (ere marginalised" 8ey ave
increased teir presence in te nort of te country into areas closer to 'anaa in recent monts4 launcing
operations against government allied 'unni tri%esmen" 8is coincides (it te proposal made earlier tis
year to split .emen into si2 autonomous regions"

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&ltoug te Houti re%els ave agreed a ceasefire (it government forces4 it is unlikely to last in te
medium term" 8e po(erful militias ave %een attempting to capture te Omran provincial capital for t(o
monts in order to increase teir influence in te nort aead of elections ne2t year" 8e .emeni
government accuses te Houti of %eing %acked %y Aran" Af te government fails to alt te Houti
e2pansion4 confrontation %et(een &P&P and Houti figters remains a strong possi%ility" 8is (ould
furter desta%ilise te country and reduce te a%ility of te government to contain any sectarian clases"
#ther developments
Egypt9s electoral commission confirmed on / .une that former army chief Abdel 8attah al43isi won
=?*=1E of the votes in the presidential election* 8e turnout (as 4+G of te country/s 94 million voters4
raising dou%ts regarding al$'isi/s a%ility to maintain popularity (ile tackling te faltering economy4 ig
poverty levels4 ig unemployment and rampant corruption in order to prevent any furter political crises"
&l$'isi played a key role in toppling te country/s first democratically$elected president4 :oammed :orsi4
last year" He introduced la(s tat severely restricted protests and cracked$do(n on supporters of te
:uslim Broterood"
#n " .une) 8atah and Hamas announced a new government of unity that will prepare the Palestinians
for elections for a new president and parliament* Palestinian President :amoud &%%as s(ore in te
ca%inet intended to reunite te <est Bank and *a7a 'trip follo(ing years of political and social division"
5espite Asraeli o%6ections and te presence of Hamas4 <asington as so(n a (illingness to (ork (it
te ne( unity government" 5iplomatic tensions %et(een te 1nited 'tates and Asrael (ill likely %ecome
more stretced"
3yria9s parliamentary speaker) Mohammed al45aham) announced on - .une that President ashar al4
Assad won the country9s presidential election after securing CC*@E of the votes* 8urnout (as placed
at +3"4+G %ut only took place in government$controlled areas" ,e%el$controlled areas in te nort and te
east (ere not included in te election" 8e presence of t(o oter candidates in te election marks te
first time tat any%ody outside of te &ssad family as %een allo(ed to take part in te process"
#n the radar
Afghanistan9s run off presidential election will take place on 1- .une*
5ebanon) without a president since "2 May) is e7pected to overcome political divisions to
elect a new president in the coming weeks*
3upporters of Egypt9s Muslim rotherhood face more mass trials this week*

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Polar regions
&ussia9s &osneft promises F-00 billion of Arctic investments
Agor 'ecin4 te ead of ma6ority$state$o(ned ,ussian oil ma6or ,osneft4 as promised tat is company
(ill invest 0400 %illion into energy$sector developments for ongoing and proposed pro6ects on ,ussia/s
&rctic self" 8e pledge came on 4 June during a meeting of te )ommission for Puestions of 'trategy for
te 5evelopment of te #uel$Bnergy )omple2 and Bcological Protection4 a top$level meeting %ringing
togeter pu%lic and private stakeolders in ,ussia/s vast energy industry" &s (ell as te leaders from %ot
state and privately$o(ned energy companies4 ,ussian President -ladimir Putin (as in attendance"
8e pledge of 0400 %illion of investments4 to %e made over a 20$year period4 (ill %e received in very
different (ays %y various stakeolders" On te one and4 te promised investments (ill %e (elcome ne(s
for te sareolders of %ot ,ussian companies and te international partners tey rely on for crucial
tecnology transfers (it relevant interests in &rctic oil and gas pro6ects" On te oter and4
environmental !*Os4 suc as *reenpeace4 (o last (eek staged t(o ma6or protest actions against drilling
on te &rctic self4 (ill vie( suc a dedication to furter risky development as a considera%le treat to
teir ecological goals in te region" *reenpeace (ill take little comfort from Putin/s assurances on 9 June
tat development in te &rctic (ill %e Otransparent/ and proceed (it close participation from !*OsN in a
tinly veiled reference to *reenpeace4 te ,ussian president/s statement (as ;ualified %y a proviso tat
!*Os tat Ouse environmental pro%lems only for speculation/ (ill not %e invited to cooperate"
!everteless4 neiter tose (o (ould (elcome nor tose (o (ould decry tis massive investment
currently ave muc immediate ground for eiter cele%ration or concern" 8e 4 June meeting (as
dominated over(elmingly %y discussions concerning te need to develop infrastructure in ,ussia/s #ar
Bast4 and te &rctic (as mentioned e2plicitly only t(o times in te (ole meeting" Andeed4 te focus on
te east of te country to te e2clusion of all else is likely to continue for many years to come4 as private
and state companies from across te gamut of oil and gas e2ploration4 e2traction4 refining and transport
(ill %e (orking ard to ensure te infrastructure and capacity is in place to make good on a series of vast
deals (it )ina4 suc as te recent 30$year *a7prom deal to supply Bei6ing (it ,ussian gas" *a7prom as
put several pro6ects in te Barents 'ea on old4 (ile ,osneft as several ma6or offsore licenses for
prospective fields in te area4 yet as not taken action to develop tem" <ile in te long term te uge
volumes of oil and gas involved in te deals (it )ina may put pressure on ,ussia to develop ne( fields
in te &rctic4 in te sort term te attention of companies in te ,ussian energy sector (ill %e primarily
focused on te task of delivering te infrastructure re;uired to meet to te commitments made to teir
)inese partners"
#ther 1evelopments
A day of mourning was held on " .une for at least 1? people presumed dead following a helicopter
crash on the ,ola Peninsula in the &ussian Arctic region of Murmansk* &mong te passengers %elieved
to ave died are a num%er of top$level officials for te region4 including te -ice *overnor of :urmansk
,egion 'ergey 'komorokov4 ,egional :inister of !atural ,esources and Bcology &leksey 'mirnov and is
deputy4 &leksander &lkimcikov" 8e cras is %elieved to ave %een te result of %ad (eater conditions4
and not any incompetence on te part of te cre( or tecnical faults in te elicopter4 (ic is said to
ave %een in good condition"
Open Briefing | 11
8inland9s prime minister has denied the need to launch an official investigation into the country9s
response to the incursion of its airspace by two &ussian Bets two weeks ago* 8e )entre Party/s
parliamentary delegation is calling for an official e2planation of (at it alleges is a failure of response4
noting tat accounts so far ave %een %ased on Otoo many contradictory and confusing statements/" 8ere
is a concern among some military officials tat ,ussia/s military e2ercises demonstrate a (orrying level of
%elligerence in te (ake of deteriorating relations %et(een te neig%ouring countries" <ile military
officials insist tat no mistakes (ere made4 te #innis 5efence #orces ave promised to improve teir
communication procedures in cases of future airspace violations"
The 6eneral 3ecretary of !AT#) Anders 8ogh &asmussen) has promised that in the future the
alliance will watch developments in the Arctic more closely* ,ussian ne(s agency &rctic$info reported
,asmussen/s statement on 2 June4 (ic (as delivered during a recent speec to te !&8O Parliamentary
&ssem%ly session in -ilnius4 ?ituania" 8e *eneral 'ecretary argued tat !&8O must keep a closer eye on
relations %et(een &rctic states4 (ic4 e alleges4 may %ecome more strained as a result of te
development of natural resources and sipping in te region"
#n the radar
The Yury Dolgoruky) the first of &ussia9s new fourth generation of nuclear deterrent
submarines) is set to be ready for combat missions by the end of .une*
The clean4up operation for the oil spill in the &aahe Archipelago in !orthern #strobothnia)
8inland) is set to finish this week) after an e2tension due to te greater tan estimated damage"

Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www*bradburys*co*uk

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Analysts: )ris &%%ott4 5erek )rystal4 ?aura Hartmann4 8ancrRde #euillade4 :atte( )ouillard4 )laudia
<agner4 5aniel 8aylor and Patrick 'e(ell"