Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flow Measures

in Satluj River Basin in India

Mohammed Sharif
1
,
Donald Burn
2
, and Azhar Hussain
3

1. Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo,
Waterloo, ON, Canada
2. Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi,
India
3. Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi,
India
ABSTRACT
A major impact of climate change is likely on the frequency and magnitude of
extreme flow events. Hydrological systems have traditionally been designed on the
assumption that the available flow records for a location reflect stationary climatic
conditions. In view of the recent climate change, the assumption of stationarity in the
flow records cannot be justified. Design of hydrological systems is, therefore, likely
to be more reliable if the impacts of potential climate change on extreme events are
considered. This paper investigates trends in extreme flow measures for a set of
streamflow gauging stations in Satluj River Basin in India. Linkages of extreme flow
measures with large scale climate indices have also been identified. The analysis
includes an exploration of the types of trends that may occur in an extreme flow
record, which include changes in the timing of extreme events, and changes in the
extreme event magnitudes. Several extreme flow measures including the high flow
and low flow magnitudes and their dates of occurrence have been analyzed for the
detection of trends using Mann-Kendall non parametric test. The results reveal more
trends than would be expected to occur by chance for various measures of extreme
flow characteristics. The data has been found to exhibit changes in both the
magnitude and the timing of extreme flow events. Analysis of extreme flow
measures presented herein is likely to lend credibility to recent climate change
modeling efforts, and would help detect climate change impacts on hydrological
regime.
Keywords: Climate change, extreme flow, India, Satluj, trend, Mann-Kendall
46 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010:
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INTRODUCTION
Climate change is anticipated to have significant impacts on many aspects of the
natural environment, including the water resources. A major impact of climate
change is likely on the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, including floods
and droughts (IPCC, 2007). Most operational decisions for water resources
infrastructure are dependent on both the timing and magnitude of flows, and
therefore climate change impact assessment must consider both these
characteristics. Traditionally, water resource systems have been designed on the
assumption that the available flow records for a location reflect stationary climatic
conditions. In view of the recent climate change, the assumption of stationarity in the
flow records cannot be justified. Consequently, past flow records cannot be directly
used to quantify design risks associated with the occurrence of extreme events, both
high flow and low flow, in the future. Design of hydrological systems is, therefore,
likely to be more reliable if the factors causing changes in extreme events are
considered.
In developing countries like India, climate change represent an additional stress on
ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous
pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development.
With its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long densely populated and low-
lying coastline, and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base,
India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. There are several
indications that climate change is indeed taking place in India. The recent droughts
in northern India and unprecedented floods in parts of Southern India are seen as a
manifestation of ongoing climate change in India. Cheerapunji is the rainiest place
on the globe but recently it saw a drought-like situation. Badhmer in Rajasthan, one
of the driest places in India recorded the highest ever rainfall in the year 2009.
Recent droughts in northern India are an indication of what changes in the patterns
of monsoon could do to the countrys agriculture in the coming years.
A better understanding of the nature of hydrologic variability due to climate changes
is needed to advance the ability to predict extreme flows. Large scale climate
indices are considered as an important source of inter-annual variability in weather
and climate with a periodicity of 27 years. Large scale climate indices such as El-
Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) capture
the anomalous states of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface atmospheric
pressure. The persistence of these climate signals and their tele-connections to land
surface hydrologic response can provide valuable indicators of impacts on
streamflows on a local scale. Advances in understanding the tele-connections of sea
surface temperature (SST) and persistent or predictable climate anomalies to the
land surface have provided opportunities for improving predictability of runoff in
some regions [e.g., Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999; Garen,1998].
Studies have been carried out to investigate linkages between climate indices and
precipitation (Dettinger et al. 1998). Both daily precipitation amounts and
precipitation frequencies have been found to be affected by ENSO events
(Woolhiser et al. 1993; Gershunov and Barnett 1998). Regions with large
contribution to precipitation from snowmelt are particularly susceptible to
temperature changes. The Himalayan water system is greatly dependent on snow
storage and therefore susceptible to global warming (Singh and Bengtsson 2005;
Arora et al. 2008). A major impact of increased temperatures in the region is likely
47 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010:
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on the streamflow behaviour in the region. Therefore, analysis of streamflow rather
precipitation and temperature series is likely to be more meaningful. Streamflow
series have the advantage over pure precipitation series that the complex variability
of precipitation, evapo-transpiration, vegetation cover, topography and other
physical characteristics of the region are reflected in the streamflow records.
Analysis of streamflow records is likely to lend credibility to recent climate change
modelling efforts, and would help detect climate change impacts on the hydrological
regime.
The primary objective of the present paper is to investigate trends in extreme flow
measures for a set of streamflow gauging stations in Satluj River Basin in India. The
four extreme flow measures considered are: 1. High flow magnitude (HFM), 2. High
flow timings (HFT), 3. Low flow magnitude (LFM), and 4. Low flow timings (LFT).
Linkages of extreme flow measures with large scale climate indices such as El-Nino
Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic
Oscillation Index have also been identified. The intent behind the research
presented herein is to advance the understanding of the linkages that exist between
large scale climate indices and extreme flow measures. The aim of the present
research is to assist water resource systems planners and designers in formulating
strategies to counteract the impacts of climate change.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Several studies have been carried out in various regions of the world to investigate
trends in hydro-meteorological variables with a view detect impacts of climate
change. Lindstrom and Bergstrom (2004) analyzed time series of annual runoff
volumes and annual as well as seasonal flood peaks in Sweden. Novonty and
Stefan (2007) examined stream flow records from 36 gauging stations in five major
river basins of Minnesota, USA for trend and correlations using Mann-Kendal test
and moving averages method. It was concluded that threat of flooding has
increased due to rainfall events than due to snow melt. Burns et al., (2007) analyzed
recent climate trends and its implications for water resources in the Catskill region of
USA using 9 temperature, 12 precipitation and 8 stream gauge sites. Mann Kendal
test was used for trend detection and Sen slope method (Gibbons, 1994) was used
for the determination of magnitude of change. Results clearly indicated a broad
general pattern of warming air temperatures, and increased precipitation, stream
runoff, and potential evapotranspiration in the region. Andrea and Depetris (2007)
present an overview of discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American
rivers draining the southern Atlantic seaboard.
Hua et al. (2007) analysed temporal trends of annual and seasonal precipitation and
temperature in the Hanjiang basin in China using Mann-Kendall and linear
regression techniques. It was observed that temperature has a significant upward
trend but precipitation has no trend. Analysis of temporal trends of runoff in
Danjiangkou reservoir basin indicated an increasing trend. Zhang et al. (2006)
investigated trends in water levels and streamflow in Yangtze river basin in China.
Singh et al. (2008) analysed temperature records of nine river basins in northwest
and central India using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Results of analysis
revealed that 7 of 9 basins have a warming trend. A brief overview of techniques
used for trend detection has been presented by Kundzewicz and Robson (2004).
48 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010:
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Several studies have examined trends and patterns in measures of the timing of
runoff for a catchment. Burn (1994) and Westmacott and Burn (1997) investigated
changes in the date of occurrence of the spring snowmelt peak streamflow. Cayan
et al. (2001) estimated the onset of spring runoff by defining a pulse day. Zhang et
al. (2001) and Burn et al. (2004a) defined the date of the onset of spring runoff using
an automated approach based on current and previous streamflow values. Zhang et
al. (2001), Hodgkins et al. (2003), and Hodgkins and Dudley (2006) used the centre
of volume date to define the timing of runoff. Stewart et al. (2005) used three
measures to examine changes in streamflow timing in snowmelt dominated
watersheds in western North America.
CLIMATE INDICES
Six climate indices have been examined in this study to identify linkages with
extreme flow measures. The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the best
known climate signals for which teleconnections have been found with a variety of
hydrological variables including precipitation (Kahya and Dracup, 1993) and
streamflows. (Cayan et al., 1999). The ENSO is an important source of inter-annual
variability in weather and climate with a periodicity of 27 years. Garen (1998)
evaluated the use of the ENSO as a primary variable in streamflow forecasting using
statistical methods. Hamlet and Lettenmaier (1999) devised a method to incorporate
the ENSO in streamflow forecasting for the Columbia river.
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) (Mantua et al., 1997) is a pattern of Pacific
climate variability that shifts phases on at least inter-decadal time scale, usually
about 20 to 30 years. The PDO has been shown to have strong connections with
hydrological variables, particularly in the Pacific Northwest (Hamlet and Lettenmaier,
1999; Neal et al., 2002). The PDO alternates between warm and cool phases every
2030 years. For parts of North America, warm phases are generally associated
with warmer and drier winters while cool phases are associated with cooler and
wetter winters. PDO has been shown to be a predictor for Columbia River
streamflow by Hamlet and Lattenmaier (2002).
The Arctic oscillation (AO) is the dominant pattern of non-seasonal sea-level
pressure variations north of 20
0
N latitude, and it is characterized by pressure
anomalies of one sign in the Arctic with the opposite anomalies centered about 37-
45
0
N. Derry and Wood (2004) found a relationship between the AO and river
discharge for rivers draining into Hudson Bay. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
is the normalized difference in surface pressure between a station in the Azores and
a station in Iceland. The NAO has been found to be related to changes in
temperature and precipitation in North America (Lin and Derome, 1998; Hurrell et
al., 2003). The North Pacific (NP) index provides a measure of the strength of the
Aleutian low during the winter period. The NP was found by Lins (1997) to be related
to streamflow variability in the western United States. The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) describes a cyclic variation in large-scale atmospheric flow and
ocean currents in the north Atlantic Ocean and is derived from sea surface
temperature anomalies. The AMO has been found to be correlated with predictable
patterns of rainfall across the United States (Enfield et al., 2001). Values for the
climate indices were obtained from sources listed in Maurer et al. (2004).
49 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010:
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METHODOLOGY
The first step in the methodology employed here is to create four data sets of
extreme flow measures described earlier. The first and the second data set
consisted of high flow event magnitudes and their corresponding date of occurrence,
respectively. The high flow events have been computed by extracting the maximum
flow value for each year of the analysis period. The corresponding date of
occurrence of the high flow event is extracted for each year for each station to
create the second data set. The third and the fourth data set comprised of the low
flow events and their date of occurrences respectively. For the extraction of low flow
events, a water year with start date of July 1 has been defined. This was necessary
to minimize the splitting of low flows across years. The same start point for a water
year for both the low flow magnitude and the timing measure was adopted. To
create the third date set, the minimum flow values were extracted from the historical
data set. The fourth data set was created by extracting the data indicating the time-
step on which the low flow event occurred in each year.
A composite analysis approach (Hoerling et al., 1997; von Storch and Zwiers, 1999)
was used to identify linkages between extreme flow measures and climate indices.
The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various
climate indices from the data record spanning 1957 to 2007. The procedure involves
examining high and low values for the climate indices separately since climate
signals can exhibit a strong connection in one phase but a weak connection in the
opposite phase (Hoerling et al., 1997; Maurer et al.,2004). Following Maurer et al.
(2004), the 10 largest and 10 smallest values for each climate index were
determined and the timing measures for each station were examined for the years
associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 lowest
values. In cases where a flow measure does not follow normal distribution, some
loss of power for the t-test may occur. Therefore, a resampling approach was
applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly
from the complete series mean. The resampling approach involves random
sampling, without replacement, of 10 values of an extreme flow measure from the
historical data. This procedure was repeated 1000 times to create a distribution for
the average of subsamples of 10 values from the complete sample. The average of
the each random subsample was then compared with the average of the actual
subsample computed using the composite analysis. The number of random
subsamples that had an average value more extreme than the actual subsample
was determined and used to compute the probability levels associated with the
observed subsample.
STUDY AREA AND DATA
The study area for this research is Satluj River Basin located in the Himalyan
mountain ranges in India. The Satluj is a major river of the Indus system, which
originates from Mansarover lake in Tibet. It enters India near Shipkila at an elevation
of about 2530 m and continues to flow in Himachal Pradesh through Wangtoo and
Kian before reaching Bhakra Dam. The principal tributaries of the Satluj are the Spiti
Kashming, Baspa, Bhabha, Nogli, Korpan, Nauti, Sholding, Seer, Bharari, Ali and
Ghamber khad. The fall of Satluj from its source to the planes of India is very
uniform .The elevation of the bed is about 4570 meter near Lake Mansarover, 2530
meter near Shipkila, 915 meter near Rampur, 460 meter near Bilaspur and 350
meter near Bhakra Dam site. The topographical setting and availability of abundant
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water provides enormous potential for hydropower production in the basin. The total
catchment area of Satluj river upto Kol dam site is 53770 Km
2
of which 16870 km
2

lies in India. Over 90% of the catchment lies above elevation 1525 m, and as a
result majority of precipitation is snowfall. Below this elevation, rainfall is
predominant. The permanent snow line is at elevation of 4500 m, above which there
are many glaciers and snowfields.
Streamflow observations may be influenced by regulations and diversions upstream
of a station. Therefore, it is important that stations with natural flow conditions are
considered in the analysis. Being a mountainous basin, the gauging stations are
sparsely located. Streamflow data is available at two sites: Kol and Rampur for the
period 19662000. Precipitation and temperature data is available at several
raingauge stations in the basin. Two gauging stations having a nominal record
length of 35 years are analyzed for trends and linkages with climate indices.

Figure 1 Geographical Location of Satluj River Basin in India

TREND ANALYSIS
Many parametric and non-parametric methods have been applied for detection of
trends (Kundzewicz & Robson, 2004; Zhang et al., 2006). Parametric tests are more
powerful than the non-parametric ones, but the assumption regarding the normality
of data must be satisfied. Hydro-meteorological time series are often characterized
by data that is not normally distributed, and therefore nonparametric tests are
considered more robust compared to their parametric counterparts (Hess et al.
2001). One of the most widely used non-parametric tests for detecting a trend in the
hydro-meteorological time series is the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall,
1975). A major advantage of Mann-Kendall test is that it allows missing data and
can tolerate outliers. Several researchers have employed Mann-Kendall test to
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identify trends in the hydro-meteorological variables due to climate change (Burn,
1994; Douglas et al., 2000; Yue et al., 2002; Burn et al., 2004b; Aziz & Burn 2006;
Chen et al., 2007; Burns et al., 2007; Singh et al., 2008; Burn, 2008).
Mann Kendall test is a ranked based approach that consists of comparing each
value of the time series with the remaining in a sequential order. The statistic S is
the sum of all the counting as given in Equation (1) (Hirsch et al., 1982)
S = Sgn(x
j
n
j=k+1
n-1
k=1
-x
k
)
Where
(1)
Sgn(x
j
- x
k
) = _
1 if ( x
j
-x
k
) > u
u if ( x
j
- x
k
) = u
-1 if ( x
j
- x
k
) < u
_

(2)
and x
j
and x
k
are the sequential data values, n is the length of the data set. A
positive value of S indicates an upward and a negative value indicates a downward
trend. For samples greater than 10, the test is conducted using normal distribution
(Helsel & Hirsch, 1992) with the mean and variance as follows.
E|S]=0 (3)
vai(S) =
1
18
_n(n - 1)(2n + S) - t
p
q
p=1
(t
p
- 1)(2t
p
+ S)_

(4)
where, t
p
is the number of data points in the p
th
tied group and q is the number of
tied groups in the data set. The standardized test statistic (Z
mk
) is calculated by
Z
mk
=
l
l
l
l
l
l
S - 1
vai(S)
if S > u
S +1
vai(S)
if S < u
u if S = u
1
1
1
1
1
1

(5)
where the value of Z
mk
is the Mann- Kendall test statistics that follows standard
normal distribution with mean of zero and variance of one. Thus, in a two sided test
for trend, the null hypothesis H
o
is accepted if Z
1-/2
Z
mk
Z
1-/2
, where is the
significance level that indicates the trend strength.

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APPLICATION AND RESULTS
The Mann-Kendall test was applied to four data sets comprising of HFM, HFT, LFM,
and LFT separately. Table 1 provides a summary of the results from the trend
analysis. Shown in Table 1 are the values of standardized Z- statistics for the
Rampur and Kol station. Apparent from Table 1 is the presence of more trends than
can be expected to occur by chance for the HFM, HFT, and LFM for the Rampur
station. Results that are statistically significant are shown in bold. It can be seen
from the Z statistics that HFM and HFT exhibit significant decreasing trends while
LFM exhibits a significant increasing trend. In both the cases, the level of
significance is less than 5% as the value of the Z statistics obtained from Mann-
Kendall test is less than -1.96. The LFM exhibits an increasing trend with a
significance level of 5% as the value of Z statistics obtained from Mann-Kendall test
is greater than 1.96. The only extreme flow measure that does not demonstrate a
significant trend is the LFT measure. The LFT, however, exhibits a decreasing trend
but it is statistically insignificant. For the Kol site, both the HFM and the HFT exhibit
decreasing trends but they are not statistically significant. The trends exhibited by
LFM and LFT are increasing in nature but statistically insignificant. The nature of the
results presented in Table 1 clearly indicate that the magnitude of high flow events is
on the decline and such events are occurring earlier (decreasing trends in HFT).
There is some evidence to suggest a shift in timing of low flow event towards earlier
events, as can be seen from the results of LFT in Table 1. Also, the results indicate
later occurrence of low flow events at Rampur.
Table 1 Standardized Z statistics obtained from Trend Analysis

Extreme Flow Measure Rampur Kol
HFM -2.87 -0.21
HFT -1.78 -0.55
LFM 2.22 1.15
LFT -0.60 1.05
Note: Entries in bold indicate significant results
To explore further the trend characteristics of the data, those extreme flow
measures that exhibit significant trends are plotted in Figures 2 through Figure 5. In
each case, a linear trend line has been fitted to the data and a linear regression
equation has been obtained and shown in the Figure. It can be seen from Figure 2
and Figure 3 that the HFM and HFT exhibit decreasing trends. The trend line in
Figure 4 shows that the trend for LFM is increasing. As expected, the results of
regression analysis matches with those of trend analysis conducted using Mann-
Kendall test. For Kol, none of the extreme measures showed significant trend and
therefore regression analysis has not been carried out.
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Figure 2 High flow magnitude versus year


Figure 3 High flow timings versus year


Figure 4 Low flow magnitude versus year
y = -5.4858x + 12259
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
H
F
M


(
c
u
m
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c
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Year
y = -0.0123x + 30.303
0
2
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6
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12
14
16
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
H
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T
Year
y = 0.4033x - 720.85
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
L
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(
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)
Year
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One of the objectives of the present research is to investigate whether the trends
observed from Table 1 are a result of teleconnections with large scale climate
indices. A composite analysis for the six climate indices and the four extreme flow
measures was carried to determine whether linkages exist between extreme flow
measures and climate indices. Table 2 and Table 3 summarizes the results of
composite analysis for both the sites. Table 2 shows the impact of positive phase
and Table 3 shows the impact of negative phase on the extreme flow measures. It
can be seen from table 2 that none of the climate indices except the ENSO were
found to have an impact on HFM in the positive phase. The HFT is not at all
impacted by any climate index in the positive phase. From Table 3 it can be seen
that the negative phase of PDO, AO, and NAO has more of an impact on the HFM
than does the positive phase. The number of extreme flow measures impacted by
the climate indices is 8 while those impacted by positive phase is 6. The low flow
timing measure has been impacted by the positive phase of PDO at both the sites.
The ENSO appears to be influencing the HFM and LFT at Kol only. There appears
to be a greater influence of climate indices on Kol than on Rampur although the
number of measures exhibiting trends is more at Rampur than Kol. For example,
HFT has shown a strong decreasing trend at Rampur but it is impacted by the
negative phase of PDO only, and not impacted by any of the other climate indices in
positive phase.

Table 2 Extreme flow measures influenced by positive phase of climate indices
Extreme Flow
Measure
Climate Indices
PDO AO NAO NP AMO ENSO
HFM K
HFT
LFM R
LFT R, K K K

Table 3 Extreme flow measures influenced by negative phase of climate indices
Extreme Flow
Measure
Climate Indices
PDO AO NAO NP AMO ENSO
HFM R, K K K
HFT K
LFM K
LFT R R
Note: R denotes Rampur and K denotes Kol

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DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
Analysis of the trend results clearly indicate that changes are occurring in the flood
regime for the sites examined, both in terms of the flood magnitudes (generally
decreasing) and the timing of flood events (generally occurring earlier). The
direction of trend is same for both the sites for all four measures except for LFT
which shows a decreasing trend at Rampur and an increasing trend at Kol. Changes
are occurring in the low flow regime as well with a weak indication of a decrease in
LFT (earlier occurrence of low flow events) at Rampur, and a weak indication of
increase (later occurrence of low flow events) at Kol. Both the sites showed
increases in LFM with strong trend at Rampur and a weak trend at Kol. While there
are many stations where there is a relationship between an extreme flow measure
and one of the large scale climatic indices examined, the results revealed that the
climate indices can only partially explain the observed trend behaviour. The impact
of large scale climate indices on extreme flow measures is quite complicated and
need further investigation with larger number of sites.
Trend analysis of four extreme flow measures have been carried out at two sites in
Satluj River basin in India. Results have revealed generally decreasing trends in
high flow magnitudes for both the sites. The trends are statistically significant for
Rampur and statistically insignificant for Kol. The trends in high flow timing measure
clearly indicate earlier occurrence of high flow events for both sites. Trends
exhibited by low flow events indicate that the magnitude of low flow events have
been increasing. No statistically significant trend in the occurrence of low flow
events was observed for either of the sites. In all cases, the results of Mann-Kendall
test are in close agreement with the results of linear regression analysis. Results of
composite analysis have revealed that the presence of trend cannot be attributed to
the impacts of climate indices. A more rigorous analysis is required to confirm or
deny the presence of linkages between extreme flow measures and climate indices.
However, the methodology presented here allows for detection of such linkages.
Analysis of extreme flow measures presented herein is likely to lend credibility to
recent climate change modeling efforts in India, and would help detect climate
change impacts on hydrological regime.

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