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Published: September 20, 2013
Off the Charts: World Population Could Peak by 2055
The United Nations population division this summer released its 2012 population forecasts,
predicting that there are likely to be 10.9 billion people in the world by 2100, up from 6.9
billion in 2010 (and about 7.2 billion now.) That figure is 1.8 billion more than the U.N.s
forecast of four years earlier. But Sanjeev Sanyal, the global strategist for Deutsche Bank, says
the U.N. is underestimating how much fertility rates will decline, and says the 2100 figure is
likely to be 8 billion, down from a 2055 peak of 8.9 billion.

2100
FORECASTS
2055
2010
ACTUAL
2100
FORECASTS
Years of U.N. forecasts:
U.N. FORECASTS
DEUTSCHE BANK
FORECAST
2012
2010
2008
10.854 bil.
(+57%)
10.125 bil.
(+46%)
9.031 bil.
(+31%)
8.026 bil.
(+16%)
U.N.
FORECAST
OF 2012
1.086 bil.
DEUTSCHE BANK
FORECAST
WORLD POPULATION FORECASTS
%
+10
+20
+30
+40
+50
+60
70 mil.
79 mil.
63 mil.
FRANCE
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
+30
+20
+10
189 mil.
195 mil.
195 mil.
BRAZIL
+30
+20
+10
71 mil.
77 mil.
62 mil.
BRITAIN
+30
+20
+10
84 mil.
85 mil.
127 mil.
JAPAN
10
20
30
40
102 mil.
107 mil.
144 mil.
RUSSIA
10
20
30
40
57 mil.
66 mil.
83 mil.
GERMANY
10
20
30
40
1.448 bil.
1.547 bil.
1.206 bil.
INDIA
+40
+30
+20
+10
10
20
30
40
402 mil.
462 mil.
312 mil.
UNITED
STATES
+40
+30
+20
+10
10
20
30
40
1.026 bil.
2010
ACTUAL
6.916 bil.
1.360 bil.
CHINA
+40
+30
+20
+10
10
20
30
40
Sources: United Nations Population Division, Deutsche Bank
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