TO: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, American Action Forum
FROM: Jon McHenry, Whit Ayres, and Dan Judy
DATE: June 12, 2014
RE: National Survey of Republican Primary Voters Regarding Immigration Reform
Overview This survey of Republican primary voters, conducted June 2-5, 2014 for the think tank the American Action Forum, shows strong support for a potential step-by-step approach to immigration reform that includes several key elements: border enforcement; E-verify; and earned legal status that emphasizes paying a fine and back taxes, learning English, proof of employment, and waiting at the back of the line to apply for citizenship until after everyone who is currently in line to legally enter gets in. That includes support among frequent talk radio listeners (17 percent of the sample who listen to conservative talk radio daily or almost daily) and strong Tea Party supporters (26 percent of the sample).
With those elements included, primary voters will support legal status for undocumented immigrants, including provisions for young undocumented people to gain permanent legal status after meeting specified criteria such as serving in the military, high-skill visas for immigrants with advanced degrees in science, technology, engineering or math, and a temporary worker program with a required return home.
Views of Changing the Immigration System 1. Republican primary voters support earned legal status These voters support earned legal status like a worker permit, but does not provide full citizenship by a 56 to 36 percent margin overall.
2. but narrowly oppose earned citizenship. By a 48 to 44 percent margin, primary voters oppose earned citizenship.
3. Despite initial hesitation, Republican primary voters support the Senate bill by an overwhelming margin when it is described to them. When asked, Based on what you remember about it, would you say you generally support or oppose the immigration reform bill that was passed by the United States Senate last summer? 41 percent say they dont know or cant remember, 44 percent oppose it, and 15 percent support it.
National Survey of Republican Primary Voters Regarding Immigration Page 2 When the bill is described, including four key components strengthening border security, employer verification, an earned approach to legal status including paying fines and taxes, learning English, and waiting at the back of the line, and tying legal immigration to the economy primary voters support the bill by a 75 to 21 percent margin. Included in that level of support is a 72 to 25 percent margin among frequent talk-radio listeners and a 70 to 25 percent margin among those who strongly support the Tea Party.
Potential Plan Elements 1. Not surprisingly, the restrictive elements tested draw high levels of support from Republican primary voters. The restrictive elements those that focus on requirements before allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for legal status and the conditions that these immigrants must meet in order to remain in the United States draw overwhelming support. Based on these results and previous research, the key elements are:
Securing the border. These voters support a potential element that prevent[s] any changes to legal status for undocumented immigrants until the U.S. Border Patrol certifies that at least 90 percent of illegal border crossers are apprehended, and 100 percent of the border is under surveillance, with a system in place to track immigrants who enter and exit the country by a 78 to 18 percent margin.
Requiring employers to use E-Verify. Primary voters support requir[ing] employers to use E-Verify to make sure all employees are legal, and require any company that employs illegal immigrants to pay a large fine by an 87 to 10 percent margin.
Significant conditions for legal status. By an 87 to 10 percent margin, these voters support requir[ing] undocumented immigrants to submit to and pass a background check, be fingerprinted, pay taxes, pay a fine, and prove gainful employment in order to stay in the United States.
2. All of the tested elements regarding legal status draw majority support. The elements allowing undocumented immigrants to stay legally in the United States all receive majority support. The key elements in this section are:
Creating a temporary worker plan with a return home. By a 78 to 20 percent margin, primary voters support set[ting] up a temporary worker program where people would come to America legally for a limited time to work in areas like agriculture, after which they would be required to return to their home countries. These workers would be allowed to return for the work season each year.
Allow young undocumented immigrants to have permanent legal status after meeting conditions. These voters support allow[ing] young undocumented people who have no criminal record to be eligible for permanent resident status immediately after their honorable discharge from service in the U.S. military by a 77 to 19 percent margin and support allow[ing] young undocumented people who have no criminal record to be eligible for permanent resident status immediately after graduating from college by a 60 to 36 percent margin.
National Survey of Republican Primary Voters Regarding Immigration Page 3 Allocate more high-skill visas. Primary voters support allocat[ing] more high-skill visas to foreigners who have earned a Masters degree or higher in the fields of science, technology, engineering, or math by a 74 to 23 percent margin.
Support for a Step-by-Step Plan 1. Nearly four in five Republican primary voters support a potential step-by-step immigration plan. After hearing the potential elements, respondents were asked:
The House of Representatives could vote this summer on step-by-step immigration reform bills that increased border security, strengthened the E-Verify program so employers can quickly identify illegal job applicants, implemented a visa tracking system to know who is in the country, and allowed illegal immigrants to earn temporary legal status if they passed a criminal background check, learned English, paid a fine, and paid back taxes. In general, would you support or oppose that immigration reform plan?
Voters overall support that plan by a 78 to 19 percent margin, including 72 to 23 percent among the frequent talk-radio listeners and 70 to 28 percent among strong Tea Party supporters.
2. A majority of primary voters says they would still vote for a candidate with whom they disagree on immigration. These voters say they would still vote for a candidate with whom they disagree on immigration if they agree on most other issues by a 55 to 29 percent margin, including a 60 to 25 percent margin among supporters of a potential House plan and a 41 to 44 percent margin among opponents of a potential House plan. Interestingly, 20 percent of the electorate is House plan supporters who would not support someone with whom they disagree on immigration (25 percent of 78 percent who support the plan) while just 8 percent are opponents who would not support someone with whom they disagree on immigration (44 percent of 19 percent who oppose the plan).
Methodology This analysis represents the findings of a national survey of 1000 past Republican primary voters. Interviews were conducted by telephone June 2-5, 2014, using live interviewers and a listed sample including both cellular and landline telephones. The margin of error is 3.10% at a 95% level of confidence, with a higher margin of error for subgroups.