Scenario 4

By Sergeant Major Richard A. Russo

With Major Nicholas Melin, Command Sergeant Major Daniel Hendrex, Mr. Michael
Bailey, Lieutenant Colonel Robert Dixon, and Colonel Marc Harris
What happens to the U.S. Army when its superior strength and technological
advantages are gone? What if, institutionally it doesn't even realize it's at risk? When do the
Army's strengths actually become weaknesses allowing David, a perceived underdog, to defeat
Goliath with simple low cost tactics? How do you see the world through David's eyes? How do
you shift the Army from preparing to confront "expectations" at the expense of preparing for
the reality of surprise?
The Army is traditionally shaped to confront what is expected and then must spend
blood and treasure reinventing itself on the fly to deal with a new, unforeseen reality. It plans
for the future through scenario development by examining likely threats from plausible
adversaries. Subject matter experts from different disciplines develop a narrative supported by
current intelligence; examining a potential adversary's capability, intent, and historic precedent.
What results is a story that is believable because it might happen and something like it has
happened before. All of which is perfectly reasonable. Except
1) The environment is changing in a way (and at a pace) that is unprecedented; 2) the
Army is preparing for the past and not the future; and 3) in doing so theyre not planning for
surprise - which makes us vulnerable to it. While the U.S. Army has conducted significant
operations in urban environments, something happens to Army doctrinal approaches when a
city gets really, really big. Specifically we are talking about megacities such as Karachi, Lagos,
Bangkok, and New York City (and many others). These are becoming epicenters for human
existence and will become unavoidable when threats migrate to them.
Conducting any kind of military operation, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief,
Counter-Anything (Narcotics, Insurgency, WMD, or Terrorism), or Lethal Operations, becomes
exponentially harder within the confines of a city. Many will point to over a decade of lessons
from operating within Baghdad and other historical vignettes as examples of how we already
know how to operate in cities. Baghdad has 6 million people. What happens when the city is
400% larger? What about a city that will have roughly the same population as the entire
country of Afghanistan? In a megacity the scale and density are daunting. The advantage of our
military is lost within the confines of a megacity.
Ultimately, we are looking to challenge some deeply held beliefs in this article and
assumptions about asymmetry and what it means to operate in the cities of tomorrow. This

requires a vastly different adversary. As Max Brooks, author of World War Z, stated to the Navy
War College; "Zombies are a great metaphor for the threats we will be facing, or the threats we
are facing right now". Scenario 4 is a metaphor. A metaphor designed to force our Army to see
the world through David's eyes.

































Traditionally, the urban environment
has been one of the most difficult areas
to operate in for military forces. Cities
present a multitude of challenges for an
approaching military force; not the least
of which is the structural and population
density in these areas tight streets,
masses of noncombatants, underground
passages, and high rise buildings all
contribute to a complex house of cards
that doesnt respond well to tank traffic.
Background : This is a thought experiment. No
preparations for this kind of mission are currently being
made and none of this actually happened. The story
follows the response from a U.S. Army Brigade in New
York City after a botched first contact with
extraterrestrials that crash landed in Central Park. The
scenario offers military planners a complex problem set
in difficult circumstances. They want our help, and we
want to give it, but our lack of foresight leads to
inadvertent conflict in a city of over ten million people,
with a technologically superior foe that can degrade our
capabilities. The intent is to test assumptions: the U.S.
Army is the most advanced fighting force on the planet, what happens when it suddenly isnt
or cant rely on the technology its become dependent
upon. The Army must be prepared to face surprise,
adapt, and do so in a way that outpaces out
adversaries.

Introduction: 2nd Brigade of the 10th Mountain
Division was in the final stages supporting cleanup.
Their commander knew it would take months, years likely, to restore the infrastructure the
Cephalopods damaged during the preceding seven month conflict. So long as they could keep
the pack animals properly fed and watered, the debris removal would progress on schedule.
Weather had been a concern; the loss of the local power grid combined with the toxic side
effects of the Cephalopod's molting had compromised the sewer system. It had taken weeks to
figure out why so many people had developed cobalt blood poisoning from indirect exposure,
and even longer to dislodge the Cephalopod's discarded
husks from the city's subterranean drainage systems.
The desalination dirigibles had been able to gravity feed
enough water from littoral water ways outside the
fifteen kilometer blackout zone - without them the
entire decontamination operation wouldn't have been
possible.

Ironically the entire initial contact debacle might
have been avoided if media had not been allowed at the
landing site. The desire to have the entire event
televised led to massive live media coverage. Under
Why Cephalopods? Simple: it
removes arguments about what a made
up adversary would be capable of or what
their intentions would be. Using a real
country or group can lead to analytical
arguments about what bad guy X can do
or wants to do. These discussions are
healthy, but they mire exercises down in
debate and we end up learning nothing
about ourselves. Picking something were
dramatically unprepared for can give us a
different perspective on our weaknesses,
where were assuming risk, and whats
driving those assumptions break it and
see what broke and why.

While weve learned to become
more culturally aware in the last few
decades, we still havent cracked the code
on how to do that fast. How do we make
an impression when it really matters?


normal circumstances this wouldn't have been an issue, but the contact team hadn't
anticipated the Cephalopod's extreme sensitivity to light. As the contact team approached and
the camera teams ran to the ramp of the Cephalopod's
vessel things were going smoothlyuntil the lights
went on. Observers had no idea why the Cephalopods
began to vibrate, change color, and collapse. When the
Cephalopod's lashed out at the contact party with their
nematocysts everyone assumed it was an attack rather
than self defense. As the Cephalopods retreated into
their vessel the surrounding military cordon moved in
to secure the large cylindrical landing craft which had
settled in Central Park. Shortly after, static
overwhelmed their radio communications. The New
York Army National Guard units, called in when the
aliens landed, reassessed the situation and began to
pull back.
Thats when
the big
damage came from the Cephalopod's plasma field and
the electromagnetic pulse it generated. The cylinder
also radiated directed plasma arcs which passed
through the reactive armor panels of the National
Guard's tanks
and infantry
fighting
vehicles. The
Soldiers inside who weren't vaporized on contact died
shortly thereafter from severe thermoelectric trauma.

The roughly 200 meter tall tube stood about
the same height as 65 story building and surged a
spherical pulse of barely visible plasma. The pulse
destroyed all electrical systems and transformer
infrastructure within a fifteen kilometer radius.
Subsequent pulses radiated at random intervals
completely denying approaches by air and engagement
with precision munitions. The cordon limped back
beyond line of sight from the cylinder and
While were arguably one of the
most technically sophisticated Armies in
human history in some cases technology
and our reliance on it could be our
Achilles heel. Its what weve come to
call the technology paradox: we develop
cutting edge technological approaches
and bad guys just side step them with low
tech trade craft. We also have to ask
ourselves what happens when the lights
go out and we cant bring our
technological edge to bear. The most
advanced sensors in the world do you no
good when you cant turn them on.
The Army has arithmetic it uses to
estimate how many Soldiers it would
need to conduct certain types of
operations. Those numbers fly right out
the window when you try to apply them
to a sky scraper holding 60,000 people.
Add to that stairs--lots and lots of stairs.
Any fireman will tell you; your boots start
to get pretty heavy somewhere between
floor 15 and 25. The other side of that
coin is what to do with the 59,900
occupants who arent part of the
problem? How do you engage discreetly
in a dramatically complex and
interconnected environment without
making more, bigger problems?

As we look to grow a new group of
Army cyber warriors were learning more
about how to grow new types of talent
in the force. Sometimes, who we need
might not be wearing a uniform, so how
do we identify and attract the right kinds
of talent for specialty jobs? Can we
leverage nontraditional career paths for
certain experts?

reestablished the perimeter. After several hours the Cephalopods began to move into the
subterranean systems of the city under cover of darkness. Radio communications outside the
blackout zone were intermittently interrupted by pulses of static further complicating military
approaches.

Response: The Division Commander, sent to
reinforce the initial contact, had to deal with
subsequent containment efforts and while
simultaneously executing a massive noncombatant
evacuation exercise (NEO). A monumental task, given
that he had no electrical power, military airlift, night
vision systems, motor vehicles of any kind, or radio
communications. The surface streets in the black out
zone were uncontested, though anything which
approached the cylinder was struck with plasma. Pack animals were used to help clear dead
vehicles and debris from surface streets. For the first time since the civil war coopers, farriers,
and blacksmiths were conscripted with warrants of
commission to maintain the federalized livestock.
Evacuating the 1.6 million residents of Manhattan
was further complicated by the massive influx of two
million additional people who thronged to the city to
see the arrival first-hand.

The majority of the fighting was underground.
Working dogs (mostly terrier breeds) became
essential to clearing operations since the
Cephalopods could alter their surface complexion
and blend with the wet stone surfaces of the citys
sewer and subterranean systems. Additionally the exothermic metabolism of the Cephalopods
was virtually undetectable by orbital and high altitude
sensors. The Cephalopods were able to control and
retain freedom of maneuver throughout large portions
of subterranean Manhattan through near ambushes.
The Cephalopod's nematocysts were able to penetrate
through Kevlar fabric and inject their targets with a
necrotic toxin though they seemed unable to penetrate
ballistic plate or hard armor. The Cephalopods were
able to function without environmental suits by
Underground fortifications are some
of the oldest ways to protect things and
thwart bad guys, yet the way we operate
underground hasnt changed all that
much. A scenario like North Korea could
expose large formations to massive
underground fortifications. Are we
prepared?
One of the things the U.S. military
has become extraordinarily adept at is
target acquisition finding bad guys.
Whether it be down the sights of rifle or
through the camera lens of a drone we
have the ability to see threats from a
great distance and engage them with
deadly force. We plan around having this
advantage. So what happens when that
goes away?
With cell phones and web enabled
devices reaching market saturation we
should expect an environment dense with
electronic signal traffic. How will we sift
through the airwaves of tomorrow to
identify and locate threats? How can we
stay ahead of the electronic tradecraft
and increasing sophistication of nations,
groups, and individuals all while
protecting the privacy of U.S. persons?

shedding and re-growing their bioengineered epidermal layer when it became saturated with
carbon dioxide. Flame and incendiary weapons proved
particularly effective in the confines of subterranean
Manhattan and especially since the gelatinous
structure of the Cephalopods reduced the hydrostatic
shock effect from firearms. Impacts from the botched
initial contact were, understandably, global. There was
immediate international backlash against the United
States, based on the failure of the U.S forces to protect
the United Nations delegation, many of whom were
killed or injured during the initial contact. Additionally,
the global economy and international system were still
reeling from the realization that humans were not the
only intelligent life in the universe, as well as the
destruction of the New York Stock Exchange.

Eventually, National Security Agency analysts realized that the static pulses, that
disrupted radio frequency communications, were actually rhythmic attempts by the
Cephalopods to communicate. These discoveries led to concerted communication efforts and
an eventual cease-fire. It became known that the Cephalopods ship had been damaged by
cosmic debris and they had actually forced to land. They possessed the technology to convert
water into a hydrogen based fuel and could have just taken water. Instead they sought our help
and permission - until we attacked them with our paparazzi-style heat rays. The plasma pulses
were a remote power grid which allowed the Cephalopods to power their water extraction
equipment. Following the cease-fire the Cephalopods
repaired their vessel and departed without further
incident or interaction.

Questions for readers

How does the Army conduct decisive operations
unilaterally against a technologically superior
force in high intensity, subterranean
environments without critical technologies in
extremely austere environments with
compromised infrastructure?
How does the Army react to new technologies
that make our current technological advantages
Our story line here ends with
fizzle and not a bang it is more
about asking the right questions
than providing a satisfying answer.
Soldiers of tomorrow will have to
do more with less. Is it enough to
rely on the lessons of the past to
prepare us for an uncertain future,
or do we need a healthy dose of
imagination to keep us from being
surprised?
Some could argue the last decade of
war was a study in asymmetry. But what
happens to the U.S. military when those
tables are turned? Are we culturally able
to change our mindset? Are we agile
enough as an institution to adapt to
catastrophic change? How can we adapt
to get the most from the Army of
tomorrow, and how can we do it a pace
faster than our potential adversaries. Its
a study in military Darwinism.

(e.g., precision fires, motor transport, radio communication, aviation) obsolete?
How can the Army rapidly gain understanding (language, customs, and beliefs) to support
operations with unfamiliar cultures?
How does the Army rapid expand obscure skill sets in the force to respond to emerging
technical challenges?
How does the Army conduct large scale noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) in a
megacity while in contact with a hostile force?
How can the Army decontaminate massive amounts of water and equipment, quickly, with
little power?










The authors are Fellows in the Chief of Staff of the Armys Strategic Studies Group. This
work was done as part of a one year fellowship at the SSG, during which Fellows seek to
provide the Chief of Staff of the Army with independent, innovative and unconstrained
ideas about future Army challenges. This team was tasked with exploring the complexities
of megacities in the deep future, and developing ways to help the Army prepare for this
emerging environment. Sergeant Major Richard Russo is an Intelligence Analyst, Major
Nicholas Melin and Lieutenant Colonel Robert Dixon are members of the Army Corps of
Engineers, Command Sergeant Major Daniel Hendrex is a cavalryman, Mr. Michael Bailey is
an Army Civilian Microbiologist, Colonel Marc Harris is a Signal Officer.
This article reflects the personal views of the authors and not necessarily those of the
Department of Defense or the Department of the Army.