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Ha Fund Investor
A mutual fund newsletter published monthly by Harloff Inc., 26106 Tallwood Drive, N. Olmsted, Oh 44070
phone 440-871-7278, www.harloffcapital.com. Copyright © Harloff Inc. 2009, Vol. 11, Year 16 November 2009
Our last buy signal for both the S&P500 and NDX100
was on March 20, 2009, a good call. The market
continues to show strength. Our HVI indicators show us
that the bull is still alive and well. For the year, the
S&P500 and NDX indexes are up 23.60and 52.34%
respectively. The average of our three portfolios is up
55.9% YTD.
Contents page Our HCM resistance and support chart of the S&P500
index on page 2 illustrates that the market remains in an
Portfolio Performance.....................................1 uptrend.
Market Timing: SP500, Bonds, Gold...............1
Executive Summary.........................................1 Our analysis indicates that: precious metals,
HVI Rank: Asset Class, Sector, World ...........2 commodities, Latin America, Emerging markets, and
Model Portfolios.............................................2 technology are promising. Promising region/country
Featured Graphs.............................................2 funds are: Emerging Markets, US, England and
Recent PortfolioTransactions...........................3 Germany. These funds and indexes suggest that the
HVI Rank: Funds & Indexes .....................4-5 Emerging Markets, as producers of commodities, are
Portfolio Performance, YTD, % thriving to feed growth in China and India. The US dollar
Ave of three portfolios (-11.54% 2008)....... 55.89 continues to be a sell as the US pays its debt in fiat
Dynamic Frontier portf. ( -3.20% 2008)........ 53.84 dollars. There is a lot of rhetoric in Congress to hold the
No-Load Agg Gr portf. ( -0.45% 2008)........ 51.06 Fed to a strong dollar policy, but it is Treasury’s job to
Rydex portfolio...............(-30.97% 2008)........ 62.77 hold up the dollar.
S&P500 index.2009......(-38.49% 2008)........ 23.60
NDX100 index.2009.....(-41.89% 2008)..........52.34 Our absolute momentum (HVI) comparison for the style
box on page 2 indicates that large cap beats small cap
Market Timing, long term gain,%
stocks. We have recently become aware of institutional
S&P500: 11/20/09 1091.38 42.01 style box analysis. We believe our style box analysis
last signal(e): buy 03/20/09 768.54 responds faster than institutional analysis. Our sector line
NDX100: 11/20/09 1764.39 48.62 up this month is gold, pharmaceutical, and commodities.
last signal(e): buy 03/20/09 1187.18
Gold, XAU: 11/20/09 184.28 23.26 We continue to have buys on S&P500, NDX, gold/
precious metals. We have a new sell on bond yields (i.e.
last signal(e): buy 07/24/09 149.50
we are long bonds); see the left column on page 1.
US10 yr bnd yield %: 11/20/09 3.36 -1.82
Because the markets can turn quickly, be ready. May
last yield signal(e): sell 11/17/09 3.30 the market be with you! (November 20, 2009)
c:\backtest\exprtd2,exprtd3,trade,stock32,stock6
Our newsletter performance disclosure is on page 3.
The Intelligent Fund Investor, page 1
Table 1, HVI Rank for Asset Classes, US Sector Indexes, and World Indexes
The Harloff Value Index, HVI, is a proprietary forcasting index developed by Dr. Harloff. The money market value is zero. High positive numbers
are desirable and negative numbers are not. The HVI is presented for a wide variety of mutual funds and market indexes for both domestic and
international markets. With this one index, the financial markets of the world can be ranked and compared. The investment strategy employed is to
stay invested in high HVI funds. In addition, we also employ dynamic asset allocation to assist us in decisions to be in equity or money market funds.
The HVI is computed for about 125 mutual funds and indexes, which are ranked and sorted according to their asset allocation class. The ranking number
on the left of the table on p4 and p5 indicates the fund or index position without regard to asset class. The mutual fund list, selected for analysis, is
dynamic and changes with time.
3 Newsletter Portfolios: These portfolios may differ from managed account portfolios.
Dynamic Frontier , Ticker % No-load, Aggressive, Ticker % Rydex Portfolio, Ticker %
Profunds U Pharma, PHPIX 34 ProFnds U PrecMtl, PMPIX 34 Rydex Prec Metal, RYPMX 34
Rydex Long Dow, RYCVX 33 Profunds U Pharma, PHPIX 33 Rydex Velocity 100, RYVYX 33
Direx Comm Bull, DXCLX 33 ProFnds Basic Mtl, BMPIX 33 Rydex Lng Dow, RYCVX 33
1050
950
$
$
850
support
resistance
750
HCM
650
12/18/2008 2/26/2009 5/7/2009 7/16/2009 9/24/2009 12/3/2009
Harloff’s The Intelligent Fund Investor is published monthly by Harloff Inc. It is supplied free to clients with managed accounts over $50K. The
subscription rate is $279. per year by U.S. mail. Rates for fax, electronic, and outside of U.S. delivery are higher. Refunds are not available. All
impersonal advice is for the sole and exclusive use of individual subscribers. This material is copyright protected. Any reproduction, except in
case of brief quotations with appropriate credits, is forbidden without prior written consent of Harloff Inc. Use of this information to manage
investments for others is forbidden. Past performance does not assure future performance. Price data purchased from Investors FastTrack. This
information is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Harloff Capital Management, its employees and clients may hold positions in these
funds. For information or comment, please contact Dr. Harloff at 26106 Tallwood Drive, N. Olmsted, Oh 44070 or phone 440-871-7278.
Rydex Portfolio
RYVYX 34 07/27/09 08/24/09 66.60 69.35 0 4.13 47.17
RYAZX 33 07/27/09 08/24/09 21.53 24.35 0 13.10 53.53
RYCVX 33 07/27/09 08/24/09 13.33 14.58 0 9.38 58.29
RYZAX 34 08/24/09 09/28/09 65.14 70.86 0 8.78 63.01
RYAZX 33 08/24/09 09/28/09 24.81 26.76 0 7.86 67.24
RYHRX 33 08/24/09 09/28/09 19.87 21.52 0 8.30 71.82
RYZAX 34 09/28/09 10/26/09 70.86 69.04 0 -2.57 70.32
RYAZX 33 09/28/09 10/26/09 26.76 24.09 0 -9.98 64.71
RYHRX 33 09/28/09 10/26/09 21.52 20.62 0 -4.18 62.44
RYVIX 34 10/26/09 11/20/09 42.72 40.42 0 -5.38 59.47
RYVYX 33 10/26/09 11/20/09 78.61 79.94 0 1.69 60.36
RYTNX 33 10/26/09 11/20/09 20.22 21.14 0 4.55 62.77
Disclosure: Money market interest not considered. The newsletter (NL) is published monthly and does not report any money manager’s actual results.
NL portfolio results are not to imply, or a reader should not infer from them, anything about the editor’s investment competence or about future
investment results. Per Ohio Administrative Code 1301:6-3-44(A)(1), disclosures include: material market or economic conditions are portrayed monthly
by indicating S&P500 and NDX100 index results with the NL portfolio results on page 1; NL results are not managed and do not reflect the deduction of
any advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid; the reinvestment of dividends
and other earnings are accounted for in the NL transactions listed in Table 2 and on page 1, however the S&P500 and NDX100 indexes on page 1 do not
reflect dividends and other earnings and an investor may not directly invest in these two indexes; the potential for profit has the potential for loss;
individual funds, indexes, investments, and NL results all have different volatility; NL portfolio contains investments that are selected with a view
towards capital appreciation; NL results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might
have had on the editor’s decision-making if the NL editor were actually managing clients’ money; it is possible that conditions, objectives, or investment
strategies of the NL portfolio may have changed materially during the time portrayed and it is impossible to determine the effect of any such changes on
the results portrayed; any of the securities contained in, or the investment strategies followed with respect to the NL portfolios may not relate to the
type of advisory services offered by the editor, e.g. the NL may include some types of securities that the editor may no longer select for its clients;
editor’s actual clients may have had materially different investments and investment results from the NL. Values in this newsletter are believed to be
correct, but are not guaranteed.
The terms in the Table 3 are defined here. The fund objective is obj, the proprietary Harloff Value Index is HVI, the % change in HVI from
the previous week is %chg, the net asset value is nav, the 4 and 13 week % change in price (adjusted for dividends) are 4wk and 13w respec-
tively, risk is the standard deviation of the fund divided by same for S&P500, the rsk adj is proprietary, HVI and 13w are divided by risk, risk
levels are low, medium or high, and b/s gives current buy or sell based on a different proprietary indicator.
GOOD NEWS
Harloff Managed Account Service,
was noted in the MoniResearch Newsletter of
Jan/Feb 2000, “Harloff Managed Account Service
has turned in the highest one-year performance
figure we have ever recorded--- 168.56% in 1999
for their Aggressive Growth program”. Past
performance does not insure furture returns.
First Class
Harloff’s The Intelligent Fund Investor
26106 Tallwood Drive
North Olmsted, Oh 44070