Jurnal 1-6

Global Advanced Research Journal of Educational Research and Review (ISSN: 2315-5132) Vol. 1(10) pp.
219-225, December,
2012.Special Anniversary Review Issue
Available online http://garj.org/garjerr/index.htm
Copyright 2012 Global Advanced Research Journals

Review

The myth of children without parents: Best or worst
students?

Fabricio Zanzzi
1
* and Liliana Arias
2

1
Escuela Superior Politcnica del Litoral, Facultad de Economa y Negocios, Km 30,5 va Perimetral, Guayaquil,
Guayas, Ecuador
2
Universidad Estatal de Milagro, Investigadora rea Educacin, Km 1,5 va a Parr. Virgen de Ftima, Guayas, Ecuador

Accepted 10 December, 2012

It is surprising to hear about children without parents who are the best students in the classroom (Myth
1). On other occasions it is easy to hear about children without parents, who suffer integration problems
that do not allow them to be more successful in academic performance (Myth 2). We have considered as
causes of such parental absence: divorce, emigration, death, chronic diseases (including terminals),
prison and family neglect, in 21 between State and private schools. In this study we show empiric
evidence to confirm a normal curve in the academic performance of children who live in Milagro City,
Ecuador. So, -using hypothesis tests- we found, closely proportional, there are good students and bad
students in the groups of children with their fathers and mothers at their homes, and children without
their fathers and mothers at their homes, permanently. So, the myths are broken.

Keywords: Academic performance, absent parents.

INTRODUCTION

(This article contains our results of a research founded by
Universidad Estatal de Milagro and this publication is now
authorized by its academic authorities. FabricioZanzzi
and Liliana Arias gratefully acknowledge the translation of
Daniela Torres from Escuela Superior Politcnica del
Litoral. The authors also want to thank their universities
for its support) We often hear cases of standard bearers
or escorts (So each schools authority can call and
designate those who have obtained the highest grades
throughout their entire school life, among his group of
classmates), in public and private schools, religious or
non-religious schools secular, military or civilian, national
or international schools, who did not enjoy the constant

*Corresponding Author E-mail: pzanzzi@espol.edu.ec,
lariasg@unemi.edu.ec; Phone: 593 (04) 2853454
presence (The absence will be understood as permanent
when the distance situation of at least one of the parents
has been or is seen for a long term. Herewe use the
concept as itis at the Royal Academy of the Spanish
Language (2007)) of their parents, but lost them in the
course of their short lives. We also have heard of cases
about students with the same problem who have become
real threats to the welfare of society. So the question
arises: Will the schooled without parents are among the
best of society, or among the worst? The authors believe
that it is not a good idea to discriminate them or to think
of them as more prepared children for real life than other
infants their age, since both cases would be back sliding
on their negative involvement. Here is a simple statistical
analysis that highlights the lack of empirical evidence to
support either of the two statements.
This type of reasoning is derived from the logic that
suggests that while it is true that the parent is more

220 Glo. Adv. Res. J. Edu. Res. Rev.

interested in the care, protection and welfare of the child,
then if the parent would is absent his son would be
unprotected and, therefore could become a victim of child
sexual abuse, labor exploitation, malnutrition, feelings
related to low self-esteem, low student achievement
(Regarding to this topic, see a major study on the reality
of Bolivia, a developing country such as Ecuador, so it
could be a number of similarities in Mizala, Romaguera,
and Reinaga (page 24)), among other situations such as
physical and psychological violence, which makes an
adult keep some sort of resentment and rebel against the
established social system and, perhaps, try to attack the
social system . The authors of this study believe that this
could happen only in the short term, because when an
individual has reached maturity and becomes aware of
the difference between doing wrong or right, he could
discern and make the decision not to attack the social
system instituted, but inserted in it, and if he continues to
receive aggressions, he could decide to go to the state
justice system.
Remember that even if it were possible to maintain
constant all important variables that affect the child's
academic performance, and only did vary the permanent
presence of their parents (Onother social science,
economics, to study social processes it is used this
economic assumption called ceteris paribus with very
encouraging results. Here we try to use this investigative
tool), it may well be any of the following situations:

1. Student with permanent presence ofparents and
high academic performance.
2. Student with permanent presence of parents and
standard academic performance.
3. Student with permanent presence of parents and
low academic performance.
4. Student with no permanent presence of parents
and high academic performance.
and standard academic performance.
and low academic performance.

There will (Inan interesting review ofthe literature on
academic performance factors Ncher (pages 2 and 7)
visualizes the results (some how contradictory) of
different investigations of other authors.
It is not possible to find all the variables in social
studies, as seenin another valuable study recommended
in Vlez and Roa (2005: 31)) always be the suspicion
that something is happening, may be not because of the
important variables, but because of the endless amount
of details (It is not possible to find all the variables in
social studies, as seenin another valuable study
recommended in Vlezand Roa (2005: 31)) that turns the
study of this problem into a complex phenomenon
(Caldwell argues that "afundamental characteristic of

fields that study complex phenomenais that, typically,
only'explanations of the principle'or 'pattern predictions'
are possible in them". The dynamics of complex
phenomena is explained clearly and concisely, both
Caldwell (2004: 301-306), as Hayek (1952)) impossible to
be fully explained by an external observer and analyst or
researcher field whose key feature is that it will never be
possible to make quantitative predictions about him, but
his detailed study helps advance this understanding.
Some people even think the students without parents
work harder because they dont get immediate help from
them, so they assimilate real life faster than their
classmates and therefore they could find solutions to
problems that others do not even have imagined before
(Some people acknowledged more autonomy in their
children because of the absence of parents, according to
Mejia, W. (2008: 10)). This "advantage" would be
enhanced with the proper guidance of a teacher.
In contrast, other authors mention that without an adult
to guide, these children without parents would become a
problem for society as they make mistakes in their lives
that brings collective consequences, by which even the
educational system marginalize them and society
stigmatizes them as if they were "bad apples" (This
concern, in the Chilean reality, can be noted in the
scientific paper written by Saavedra, Erika (page7)),
which then have to be corrected through public
investment in the state.
Already in the field of teaching, not just few teachers
feel difficulties when they know that in their classroom will
be some students who do not have the permanent
presence of their parents in their homes, so the teachers
assume they will have no appropriate behavior with peers
and teachers, which is but a small lack of educational
knowledge about the recovery process of the students
who pass such trauma (Several countriesare developing
recovery educational programs for different affected
groups; this concernis reflected to the Peruvian reality in
Miranda, L. (2008: 21)).
The main causes of the continued absence of the
parents are: divorce, migration, death, chronic or terminal
diseases, prison, and the abandonment of the parent;
each with peculiarities that teachers should try to mitigate
through their orientation.

Brief explanation of the methodological treatment

As you can imagine, the permanent absence of the
parents is not the only reason to be considered for the
projection even only qualitatively of the academic
performance of the minor or to explain its past
performance. However and therefore, in this case was
considered necessary statistical verification of results
using the Hypothesis Testing Method of Difference

Zanzzi1 and Arias 221

Table 1. Did the best academic performance student not enjoy the presence of his parents?

School
The student lost at least one parent when he was in grade
Highest academic performance Lowest academic performance
17 of Septiembre None Before School
Abdn Caldern Before School 1st
Alborada 6th (It isrecommended not to use this data or this school
for any calculation since the 6th grade academic
involvement is not distinguishable in relation to the rest of
the school system because the yare only 7 degrees)
None
Antonio Jos de Sucre None None
Carlos Moreno Arias 2nd None
Divina Luz None None
Ebenezer None None
Eduardo Kingman None None
Eloy Velsquez 1st None
Eugenio Espejo Before School 3rd
Len de Febrs Cordero None None
Albert Einstein None 2nd
Liceo Cristiano None None
Miguel Valverde Before School None
Moderna None None
Paulino Milan 3rd None
Antonio Viteri Gamboa None Before School
San Antonio None Before School
San Jos None None
Simn Bolvar None None
Victoria Concha de Valdez None Before School

Source and elaboration: Zanzzi, Fabricio / Arias, Liliana.

Between Two Population Proportions (Mendenhall, 1990)
to determine whether the difference between the
proportion of school children without parents and the
proportion of the standard bearers without parents were
statistically significant or not. We alsouse some simple
statistical treatments that perhaps offer an enjoyable
reading.

Do the students without parents have more
possibilities than the students with parents to be
among the best students? Here is some evidence

To verify that the myth of the standard bearers (under
which many people believe that this designation usually
get many students without parents) is happening in a
particular city, it would be a good idea to confirm that the
proportion of standard bearers with absent parents is
bigger than the proportion of students that joy their
parents presence. Stated another way, if X% of the
students do not have the permanent presence of their
parents then it would be normal to expect that the same
X% of standard bearers students belonged to students
without parents. If the data is bigger for the standard
bearers, then it might become evident that hope is higher
for parentless students than for the students with their
parents presence.
For this study we used the data from Milagro (The Data
was obtained from a research program about the school's
academic recovery whose parents were absent
permanently funded by Milagro State University),
Ecuador, according to which 35% of school children
suffer from the permanent absence of at least one parent.
To obtain the amount of best students from each school,
we proceeded to execute the following calculation, and
the table below was obtained as result:
According to this table obtained, in 6 of these 20 cases
the best students intheir school ssuffer from the
permanent absence of at least one parent, reaching a
ratio of 0.3 or 30%, it means in 3 out of 10 cases the
student with the highest academic average goes through
this problem.
Then, it was considered necessary statistical
verification of the results using (Hereis what is
methodologically suggested in Fassio, A., Pascual, L.,
and Suarez, F. (2002: Chapter IV)) Hypothesis Testing
Method of Difference Between Two Population
Proportions (Mendenhall, 1990) to determine whether the


Table 2. We use a hypothesis testing procedure on the best grade students.

Graphic 1. Percentage of students in permanent absence of parents who are
on the 10 highest scores list from each school.
Note: must have at least 20 students, to consider the school in this statistic.
Source: raised primary data for this research.
Prepared by: Zanzzi, Fabrizio; Arias, Liliana.

difference between the share of students without parents
and the proportion of the standard bearers without
parents were statistically significant or not (Remember
that in this test the null hypothesis (H
0
) states that there is
NO difference between two population proportions at a
certain percentage level of significance. It is represented
as follows: H
0
: (p1 -p2) = 0, orH
0
: p1=p2. The alternative
hypothesis (H
A
) relatesthat there isdifference betweentwo
population proportions, in this case p1 and p2, to a
certain percentage level of significance. It is represented
as follows: H
A
: p1p2).
The following results (It shows the analysis of the
results obtained when = 0.10 and therefore a two-tailed
test Z= 1.645, and the confidence level that was
0.9(hence p
1
= p
2
=0.45)) were obtained.
As you can see, the difference was not relevant, so
there is no statistical evidence that the students without
parents might be more likely than those students with
parents, to be among the best.
That is confirmed by the following chart, where it is
clear that from the top 10 students (For this comparative
analysis 10 of best students were elected because the
number of acknowledgments is near to this, 9 (3 standard
bearers, three former escorts and three second escorts))
from each school, the proportion of students without
parents has a very divergent distribution ranging from
10% to 50%.
Finally, findinga relation between the variables
proportion of students with absent parents and the
average of 10 students with the highest scores, so that
the result agrees with the myth of the standard bearer, a
positive qualitative relation should be obtained; that


Graphic 2. Relation between the proportion of students in the absence of
parents and the average of the 10 students with the highest grades.

means the higher the ratio, the greater the average.
However, as seen in the chart below, after running the
respective regression, it confirms that although the linear
function is far from observations implying a very weak
relation, it is also true that it was not fulfilled in the
qualitative aspect; it was obtained as a function with a
negative slope. Hence, it may finally be interpreted; that
the greater the proportion of students without parents
among the top 10 best students, thelower the average of
the spoken group.
This will be followed by the theory verification for this
case with regard to students with lower averages.

Do students without parents have higher
probabilities than students with parents to be among
the worst students? Some evidence below:

Now we have to confirm whether the proportion of
students with absent parents and low grades is greater
than the proportion of all students with absent parents.
Ergo, if X% of the students do not have the permanent
presence of their parents, then it would be normal to
expect that the same X% of the worst students belonged
to students without parents. If the data is greater for the
latter, then it may become evident that expectation is
greater for parentless students than students with their
parents presence.
For this, again resorted to data of Milagro City,
Ecuador, according to which 35% of students suffer from
the permanent absence of at least one parent. On the
other hand, according to Table 1, we obtained in 7 of
those 21 cases, students with the lowest average of their
schools suffer the permanent absence of at least one
parent, reaching a rate of 0.3333 or 33.33%, i.e. 3.33 out
of 10 cases, or 10 out of 30 cases the student with the
lowest GPA goes through this problem.
Then the study turned again to the statistical
verification of the results using the method of hypothesis
testing difference between two population proportionsto
determine whether the difference between the proportion
of school children without parents and the proportion of
worst students without parents were statistically
significant (The assumptions and statistical information is
the same as was used before).
The following results were obtained:
As seen, this time the difference was not significant
either, so there is no statistical evidence that the students
without parents might be more likely than students with
their parents presence, to be among the worst.
That is confirmed also by the following graphic, where
you can notice that from 10 worst students (For this
comparative analysis 10 of best students were elected
because the number of acknowledgments is near to
vicinity, 9 (3 champions, three former escorts and three
second escorts)) at each school, the proportion of
students without parents has a very divergent ranging
that goes from 10% to 55%.
Finally, we sought to relate the variables proportion of
students with absent parents and the grade point average
of 10 students with the lowest scores, from what a
positive qualitative relation should be obtained, which
means that the higher the ratio the greater the average.
However, once again, it can be seen in the graphic below
that the linear function is far from the observations, which


Table 3. We use a hypothesis testing procedure on the worst students.

Graphic 3. Percentage of students with permanent absentee parents who are
on the list of the 10 lowest scores from each school.

Graphic 4. Relation between the proportion of students in the absence of
parents and the average of the 10 students with the lowest grades.
Prepared by: Zanzzi, Fabrizio; Arias, Liliana

means it is really weakand not fulfilled in the qualitative
aspect by having negative slope. From there you can
interpret: the greater the proportion of children without
parents among the 10 worst students, lower the average
of the student group but yet again, the relation is weak.

CONCLUSION

So do things and the results obtained, it would be worth
mentioning that a teacher should not expect that a
student without parents could succeed alone and have
acceptable academic performance or was predestined to
be the best or the worststudent (Remember that the
statements for thisconclusion were sustainable for
Milagro City), but should try to improvetheir situation
whether the need is known or not. Why? Because low
academic performance (grades) is only one of many
indicators that say that thechild is going through a
traumatic time in his life.
Similarly, to those students who do have parents at
home, theres no statistics that shows that they are
predestined to be in a better academic situation than their
academic partnerswho suffer the absence of their
parents. Why? Because there are also neglected parents
and unmotivated children, and in both cases may or may
not be that the student's academic performance is not the
best, because there is not one factor, but many who
depend on each case.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Caldwell B (2004). Hayeks challenge. Chicago: University of Chicago
Press.
Fassio A, Pascual L, Surez F (2002). Introduccin a la metodologa de
la investigacin aplicada al saber administrativo. Buenos Aires:
Ediciones cooperativas.
Galera L (2007). Nios con sus madres en prisin, retos educativos. I
Seminario Nacional sobre educacin en prisiones. El Salvador.
Hayek F (1952). The counter-revolution of science, studies on the
abuse of reason. (2nd Ed). Indianapolis: Liberty Fund Inc. 1979.
Meja W (2008) coordinador. La experiencia del modelo de contratacin
laboral temporal y circular de la unin de agricultores de Catalua en
Colombia, vista desde las comunidades de origen de los
trabajadores.Pereira, Colombia: Grupo de Investigaciones en
Movilidad Humana de la Red de Universidades Pblicas del Eje
Cafetero Alma Mter.
Mendenhall W (1990). Estadstica para administradores. (2nd Ed).
Ciudad de Mxico: Grupo Editorial Iberoamrica.
Miranda L (2008). Factores asociados al rendimiento escolar y sus
implicancias para la poltica educativa del Per. Artculo publicado en
Benavides, M. (2008) Ed. Anlisis de programas, procesos y
resultados educativos en el Per, contribuciones empricas para el
debate. Lima: GRADE.
Mizala A, Romaguera P, Reinaga T. Factores que inciden en el
rendimiento escolar en Bolivia. La Paz: FONDECYT.
Ncher V. Personalidad y rendimiento acadmico. Jornades de Foment
de la Investigaci de la Universitat Jaume I. Espaa.
Real Academia Espaola de la Lengua (2007). Diccionario Prctico del
Estudiante.Quito: Santillana Ediciones Generales.
Saavedra . Nios con rendimiento escolar normal en el sistema
educativo chileno, un concepto terico o una construccin social?
Revista Iberoamericana de Educacin, de la Organizacin de
Estados Iberoamericanos. ISSN: 1681-5653.
Vlez A, Roa C (2005). Factores asociados al rendimiento acadmico
en estudiantes de medicina. Revista Educacin Mdica. Bogot.
Zanzzi F (2008). Milagro socioeconmico en cifras. Milagro:
Universidad Estatal de Milagro.

Global Advanced Research Journal of Educational Research and Review (ISSN: 2315-5132) Vol. 1(10) pp. 226-230, December,
2012. Special Anniversary Review Issue

Full Length Research Paper

Conducive areas for gated communities and guarded
neighbourhoods on the basis of physical security
determined with the aid of GIS

Zurinah Tahir, Khadijah Hussin, Kamaruzaman Abd Rasid
3

1
Ph.D. candidate of Land Administration and Development, Department of Land Administration and Development,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
2
Ph.D. in Law (Department Law), Department of Land Administration and Development, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
3
Department of Land Administration and Development, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.


The concept of Gated Communities (GCs) and Guarded Neighbourhoods (GNs) that are surrounded by
walls and fences, and that are free of vandalism imparts the perception of security among the residents.
Hence, the element of security is very important in the planning of Gated Community and Guarded
Neighbourhood housing. However, the current scenario in the development of such neighbourhoods
indicates that there needs to be better planning and management of physical security such as security
fencing or guard posts. This research aims to discuss the criteria related to physical security features
present in the current Gated Community housing. Such information can serve as a basis for the
construction of spatial models and spatial analyses aided by GIS to indentify the most suitable areas
for Gated Community housing. The physical security information system that is being developed will be
very important to construction developers, homeowners, and especially to the planning department of
the local authorities. Information from such a mapping exercise will be simplified and shared by
multiple users, making it even more versatile in enhancing the management of housing development in
Gated Communities and Gated Neighbourhoods.

Keywords: Gated Community, Gated Neighbourhood, Physical security, Spatial analysis model, GIS, Suitability
Index

INTRODUCTION

Proper planning of housing development is important as
the development that takes place today might have
serious consequences in years to come. To ensure
properly planned housing development, especially those
that adopt the concept of Gated Communities, the
government requires the private sector to have in place a

*Corresponding author Email: tahirzurinah@yahoo.com
competent system of management. The burgeoning
developments in information technology today have
introduced numerous advances and applications that can
be adopted in community planning. In particular, the
applications brougt about by the Geographaphic
Information System (GIS) have changed the methods
and approaches in arriving at planning decisions. Gated
Community housing has become increasingly popular in
recent years. Such schemes are gradually being
extended to landed gated communities all over the
Zurinah et al 227

Sdfghjkl;ertyuo[]\wertusdfgjlrysdfhjldfgjkldfgjlfghjl;m,ghjklhjkl;hjkl;hjl;kl;hjkl;nm,.lbnm,.

Establish Analysis and Analytical Model
Analytical Technique
Integrasion of Analisis
Model and Analisis
Technique
Construct Datbase
Combination of
Technique and
Database
Study Analisis
Results
Data Requirement

-Data criteria for
physical security of
Gated Community
housing
Data Collection,
Software and
Hardware
Model Selection
(Model of Physical
Security of Gated
Community) and
appropriate
technical analysis
(Multi-Criteria
Analysis &
Weighted Linear
Combination)
Spatial Data
Software &
Supporting Systems
Result Evaluation
Stage 1: Establishment of
the Database
Stage 2: Analysis

Figure 1 Methodology of the study

Figure 2 Location plan of the Johor Bharu District

world, including the United States. This concept has
found its way to Europe, in such palces as Portugal,
Poland and Scandinavia (Derek, 2006). The concept of
the Gated Community is still relatively new in Malaysia
and there are few reliable statistics that reveal the actual
number of such communities in the country.
Nevertheless, the development of gated communities in
Malaysia in recent times is fast expanding, especially in
Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Johor Bahru and other locations
where property value is high (Ismar M.S. Usman, Nur
Akmal Goh Abdullah, Zuhairuse Md. Darus, Nik Lukman
Nik Ibrahim, Mazlan Mohd Tahir, Abdul Halim Ismail,
Azimin Samsul Tazilan, 2005). Nevertheless, there are
numerous gated communities that do not abide by the
local building codes and regulations. As a result of this,
problematic issues related to the physical planning of
Gated Community and Guarded Neighbourhoods have
surfaced frequently. For example, the inappropriate
location of guard posts, the setting up of unauthorized
physical barriers or the requirement for visitors to
surrender identification documents effectively deny entry
of these housing schemes to the public and even to
officials of local authorities who need to monitor such
development. Even the design and dimensions of fences
in Gated Communities and Gated Neighbourhoods and
the landscaping, especially at the perimeters of such
schemes, have frequently been done without regard to
the specified standards and specifications. Good
planning requires every decision to be made only after
considering relevant factors and sensitivities through
seeking the views of all interested parties (Mohd Sanusi,
2007). Hence, the security of Gated Communities and
Guarded Neighbourhoods requires prior careful study
and analysis to enure that the earmarked development
area meets with all the requirements of physical security.

METHODOLOGY

This study involves several levels of implementation
including data acquisition, data modeling and data
analysis. The various techniques adopted in this study
are shown in Figure 1. The GIS system, the primary
methodology used in this study, also involves the
construction of a database for spatial analysis. In the
analysis, two techniques are employed, viz. the Multi-
Criteria Analysis (MCA) and the Weighted Linear
Combination (WLC). They help ensure that Gate
Communities are highly secure from the aspect of
physical security.


Dfghjkl;dfghjklfghjkuiopfghjkllfghjkl;hklhl;ertyuiop[dfghjkl;hjkl;fghjkl;fghjkl;ghjkl
Analisis to determine suitable
locations for secure Gated
Community Housing

Generation of spatial criteria data
Determiantion of weightage for
each criterion using the PHA
technique
Normalisation of criteria scores
Determination and justification for
the score value of each criterion
Suitability Map
Combining the criteria maps
using the combination map
imprint technique of the Weighted
Linear Combination
GIS
Application

Multi-
Criteria
Analysis
(MCA)
Evaluation

Figure 3 Performing the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to determine the appropriate
locations for secure Gated Community housing

Experimental programmes

The model is developed using the GIS software that
involves the selection of appropriate criteria in planning
the most secure Gated Community housing. Studies to
identify appropriate criteria compatible with the concept of
the Safe Township need to be based on contemporary
principles and philosophy in accordance with the
guidelines set for the development of Gated Communities
and Guarded Neighbourhoods. Figure 2 depicts the
study area encompassing five housing estates in the
District of Johor Bharu, i.e. Taman Setia Indah, Bandar
Dato Onn, Taman Setia Tropika, Taman Seri Austin and
Taman Adda Heights. The focus of the study is the
analysis of the physical security criteria, namely housing
design, guardhouse construction, fencing and other
elements of physical security that govern the
development of a safe Gated Community and Guarded
Neighbourhood housing.

Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

Various criteria in the GIS raster model are evaluated
through decisions that integrate spatial data according to
their degree of importance. This procedure involves
analysing the results of relevant criteria maps to
determine the most secure locations for the development
of Gated Communities. The criteria maps are derived
from constraints maps or factor maps. The analysis is
aimed at evaluating the extent to which a Gated
Community meets the various criteria that are considered
vital in terms of physical security. This information is
important in designing elements of physical security to
enhance greater efficiency and rationality in the
development of Gated Community housing of the future.
The approach adopted for this analysis is the Multi-
Criteria Analysis (MCA). The Analytic Hierarchy Process
(AHP) will be used in performing the Multi-Criteria
Analysis (MCA). The technique is aimed at determining
the weightage for each criterion that is used together with
GIS. The AHP procedure will increase rationalization with
respect to a model or result that is adopted. The
accuracy of the MCA results has to be verified before it is
entered into the database of GIS attributes to generate
useful results for planning purposes. The selection of
appropriate criteria for Gated Communities is based on
the effect of each element on physical security. Nine
criteria have been considered for the purpose of
determining the most secure Gated Community housing
from the aspect of the best physical security, namely
I. CCTV System
II. Fencing
III. Guard Post
IV. Building Design
V. Entry and Exit Points
VI. Landscape Design and Planting
VII. Hierarchial System of Roads
VIII. Pedestrian Walkways
IX. Adequate Lighting at Night

Suitability Index Model

A Suitability Index Model will be devised to handle and
process primary data derived from the GIS system
function. Among these functions are the input functions,
explanations, outcomes, updates and outputs. The
Suitability Index Model will be constructed using the
Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE) in conjunction with the
Weighted Linear Combination. Figure 4 shows the
database component for forming the Suitability Index
Model to determine the most secure Gated Community
and Guarded Neighbourhood areas, based on the criteria
of physical security.
The Suitability Index to evaluate the suitability of
locations is established after taking into consideration the
map images related to 7 selected criteria as shown in
Figure 5. The analytical model will be formed
conceptually to reflect the final processes of the map
Zurinah et al 229

Input Data (Criteria)

Crime Rate
CCTV System
Fencing Design
Landscape Planning
Guard Post
Building Design
Entry and Exit Points
Lighting

Multi-
Criteria
Analysis
(MCA)

Gated
Community
Suitability Index
Model

Suitability Map
Step 1: Selected
Criteria
Step 3: Result
Step 2: Analytical
Techniquye

Figure 4 Suitability Index Model to Determine Suitable Locations for Gated Communities

factor maps and constraints maps.

Crime rate
System CCTV
Landscape Design
Guard Post
Design
Building Design
Entry and Exit
Points
Buffer
Lighting
Data layer

Change to grid
data (raster)
and data
classification

Map to determine the
most conducive area
for Gated
Community housing
Classification
Map overlay using
Weighted Linear
Combination
Interpolation
Classification

Buffer

Buffer

Buffer

Classification

Map overlay
(factor map and
constraints map)
Fencing Design
Buffer

Figure 5 Planning Model in Physical Security for the Development of Gated Community Housing

image. The analytical results from GIS pertaining to the
criteria are presented in the form of standardized factor
maps and constraints maps.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study will present an analysis of the
criteria for the elements of physical security that must be
considered for the development of Gated Communities
and Guarded Neighbourhoods. The proposed criteria
based on suitability models will help the local authorities
evaluate and monitor the development of gated and
guarded communities in Johor Bahru so that they do not
conflict with the principles and practices of contemporary
town planning. At the same time, the analysis will also
provide guidance for developers in the planning of
physical security in gated and guarded communities in
accordance with accepted guidelines and standards. The
location information system that will be developed should
be of tremendous help to developers and to property
buyers by providing access to information regarding
physical security measures of the Gated Community in
the form of maps. The mapping information system will
further facilitate development planning in the Malaysian
housing industry.
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Perceived Students Performance in Jordans Northern
Badia Region Affect By Village Distance from Central
City.

Majd Al-Homoud and Salem Al-Oun

School of Architecture and Built Environment. German-Jordanian University.P.O.Box 35247. Amman 11180, Jordan.
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. Al Al-Bayt University.P.O.Box 130040. Mafraq 25113, Jordan.


The conditions under which education systems contribute to economic and social development have.
Environmental positions of schools such as distance from urban centers, and personality and attitude
of students and teachers towards school affect students performance. This study was conducted
using field research involving interviews and surveys conducted with 229 administers located at three
directorates of the North Badia region. The subjects were selected using stratified random sampling.
Results indicated that education at Mafraq Governorate lacks quality and quantity of supply being
located away from urban centers. Village distance is not associated with any of the elementary grade
inputs. Further, village distance is associated with number of students at eleventh grade computer,
nursing, and vocational streams, and number of sections at eleventh grade literature stream. Finally, it
showed a strong and negative association with number of students at twelfth grade computer stream,
and positive association of number of students vocational stream, and a positive association with
number of sections of literature stream. Also, village distance is only associated with number of arts
teachers and school education levels, and negatively associated with teachers attitude and available
school services. Many schools are suffering from small number of students in geographically dispersed
villages. It is more appropriate to increase numbers of students to a range of 20-30 per section to
stimulate competition among students.

Keywords: students performance, village, distance, city, environment, higher education, impact, inputs,
outputs, market, Mafraq, Jordan

INTRODUCTION

Educational environment is the setting where interaction
between students and teachers takes place (Lackney,

*Corresponding author Email: brdp_salim@yahoo.com,
majdalhomoud@yahoo.com
1999). Interactions between environmental factors and
personal characteristics of students do exhibit significant
effects on the academic performance of students (Lewin,
1943). No systematic attempts have been made to link
the performance of schools and teachers to student
results, to put in place effective monitoring mechanisms,

Figure 1 Jordans map showing north badia region

or to make information about school performance
available to parents and students (Galal, 2008). Jordan
currently has average Net Enrollment Rate (NER) above
90 percent. Jordan experienced temporary setbacks in
enrollment rates before recovering and continuing their
paths of growth in 1995. As for secondary education,
Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) today for Jordan is 85
percent or more. Jordan constitutions also guarantee the
right of education for all, but no commitment is made that
education will be provided by the state for free (Galal,
2008). Gender parity was reached before full primary
enrollment; female students outnumber male students by
a significant margin. Jordan currently has the most equal
education distribution in the region. Averaging the scores
for the adult literacy rates and TIMSS indices, Jordan
score particularly high (Galal, 2008).

Importance and Significance of the Study

Statistics of 2004 show a lack of specialized teachers of
the various majors in the North Badia Region. In
addition, applied science majors are not established in
schools within the dispersed human settlements from the
major urban center, Mafraq City. The further settlements
are from the capital city of Amman, the less such majors
are offered to local communities. Whilst, such majors
qualify high school students to be accepted to applied
science majors at the university level such as agriculture,
arid land development, resources management,
engineering, architecture, nursery, and medicine that are
believed to be the most needed by the local market in
Mafraq Governerate. Being the first of its kind, this study
emphasizes the role of school location in providing
qualitative and competitive graduates to Mafraq market.
Goals of the study are to diagnosing the relevance of
inputs of the physical distance from urban centers to the
outputs of higher education that will make Mafraq
Governorate dependent on its own human resources.
Research Setting

Mafraq Governorate area is about 26435 Square
kilometers, which represents about 29.6% out of Jordans
total area, and the second largest governorate after
Maan, see Figure 1. Mafraq Governorate population
reached 239,000 and represents about 4.6% of Jordans
total population of 2001, of which 47.6% are females and
52.4% of which are males; 42% are less than 15 years
old compared to Jordans rate, which is 39%; and 33.1%
urbanite and 66.9% town residents. Population density is
about 9-11 per one square kilometers compared to the
rest of Jordan, which is 58 per square kilometer. One of
the major problems the governorate suffer from is the
disperse location of human settlements and of natural
resources, which make the provision of infrastructure and
services very costly. The governorate has four regions
that include (Department of Statistics, 2001): (1) Mafraq
center with 104,000 with 3 districts and 72 settlements of
which 25 increases over 1000 people; (2) Northwest
Badia and its center is al Al Al-Bayt University and have
three districts with 71,000 population and 42 settlements
eight of which increases over 1000 people; (3) Northeast
Badia have four districts with 51,000 population and 67
settlements with 10 settlements that have more than
1000 population; and (4) Ruwaished with population of
17,000 and twelve settlements, four of which is populated
with more than 1000 (Department of Statistics, 2002).
The latest statistics shows that Mafraq Governorate
have about 353 schools, of which 337 built by the
Ministry of Education, one by the Military, one by the
Ministry of Social Development, two by UNRWA, and
eight schools and three kindergartens by the private
sector. There are 60 schools that are partially or totally
rented, and 30 Schools has two day shifts. About 40% of
the schools (135 schools) have adjoined classrooms
(Department of Statistics, 2002).

Literature Review and Theory

Marketing Higher Education

A number of authors have recognized the increasingly
important role that marketing is playing in higher
education institutions' efforts to attract new students
(Carlson, 1992; Fisk and Allen, 1993; Murphy and
McGarritty, 1978; Wonders and Gyuere, 1991).
Marketing actually is linked to needs assessment, market
research, product development, pricing, or distribution
(Kotler & Fox, 1995; Murphy and McGarrity, 1978). The
common feature of all marketing definitions is the
satisfying of customer needs. In a higher education
context, many customers have been recognized; parents,
alumni, donors, the community at large, the government
and prospective employers, but the primary customer
remains the student (Conway et al., 1994; Robinson and
Long, 1987; Scott, 1999; Wallace, 1999).

Incentives and Accountability in Supply -Aligning
Incentives On The Supply Side

Improving the supply quality of schools include: (1)
Improving the physical quality of schools by increasing
pressure on the treasury to spend sufficiently on building
and maintaining schools and by delivering services that
are not an integral part of the education process. (2)
Aligning the incentives of teachers, bureaucrats, and
private sector education providers to produce good
quality education. For public schools, it requires
motivating teachers to teach effectively in the classroom
through performance based on financial and pecuniary
rewards, in addition to improving the training of teachers
(Galal, 2002).

Teaching Environment Effect on Student
performance

A study by Tam and Cheng (1995; 1994) conceptualized
quality of school teaching environment based upon a
multi-perspective approach. It measured the internal
social environment of the school organization and its
relations to performance of teachers and students. There
were six integrated school environment factors that
emerged to reflect the learning/teaching environment:
strength of leadership, staff frustration, positive
classroom climate, caring and support to students (a
combination of three environment variables: esprit,
intimacy, and student-centeredness), formalization, and
pupil control (pupil control ideology minus organizational
ideology) (Cheng, 1993; Ming, 1994; Ming & Cheong,
1995). Leadership behavior of the principal was
Majd and Salem 233

measured by the integration of the five aspects:
instructional (educational), structural (hierarchy of
authority, hindrance (difficulty and obstruction) as signs of
bureaucratization of a school, and participative decision),
human resource, political, and cultural (symbolic)
(Sergiovanni; 1984; Bush, 1986; Bolman & Deal, 1991;
Cheng, 1993). Additional factors included: school context
measured by age and size of the school; personal
characteristics of students measured by age and gender;
personal characteristics of teachers measured by
average teacher teaching experience, age of teacher,
and gender of teacher. Further, teacher performance
was measured by efficacy and time-use at the individual
level. Students' performance was measured by learning
efficacy (efficiency). Students competition was as a
function of affiliation and involvement, better social
relationship increases students' engagement in study
(Ming, 1994; Ming and Cheong, 1995).

Physical School Environment Effect on Students
Performance

School buildings are of critical importance to teaching
and learning environment (Lackney, 1999). Johnson
(1990) indicated that quality of the learning environment
affects teacher behavior and teacher attitudes towards
teaching continuity. The physical setting is an undeniably
integral part of the ecological context for learning, and
has a positive influence on the bottom-line indicators of
quality in education (Lackney, 1999).
Noise and Location of Schools: Studies concluded
there are significant increases in systolic and diastolic
blood pressure associated with schools being near noisy
urban streets (Evans, Kliewer, & Martin, 1991; Berglund
and Lindvall, 1986; Cohen et al., 1986). Noise may
decrease teaching time by forcing teachers to
continuously pause or by making it difficult for the student
and teacher to hear one another (Crook and Langdon,
1974). Noise negatively influence children's information
processing, personal control, and arousal level (Cohen
and Weinstein, 1981).
Building Condition, Building Life-Cycle, and Facility
Management: A study by Edwards (1991) found that
educational building conditions were hampering student
performance, and estimated that improved facilities could
lead to a 5.5% to 11% improvement on standardized
tests. Lackney (1996) indicated student academic
improve with physical comfort and classroom adaptability,
building life-cycle, and sustainable schools.
Schools Size: Small schools benefit students socially
and academically, while smaller school buildings
consume less energy. Additionally, small neighborhood
schools serve as community centers. The use of school
facilities can be shared with a variety of community
organizations fostering meaningful partnerships and


engagement, as well as, opportunities for children to walk
and bike as added health benefit (Lackney, 1999). On
average, research indicates that an effective size for an
elementary school is in the range of 300-400 students
and that 400-800 students is appropriate for a secondary
school (7-8) (Cotton, 1996). School size shows effect on
academic achievement (Burke, 1987; Haller et al., 1993;
Stockard and Mayberry, 1992; Walberg, 1992; Bates,
1993; Eberts et al., 1982; Eichenstein, 1994; Fowler,
1992; Summers and Wolfe, 1977; Eberts at al., 1982);
extracurricular participation (Barker and Gump, 1964;
Burke, 1987; Cawelti, 1993; Howley, 1996; Berlin and
Cienkus, 1989; Rutter, 1988; Schoggen and Schoggen,
1988; Stockard and Mayberry, 1992; Walberg, 1992);
attendance (Fowler, 1995; Gregory, 1992; Gregory and
Smith, 1987; Howley, 1994; Smith and DeYoung, 1988;
Walberg, 1992; Bates, 1993; McGanney et al., 1989;
Rutter, 1988); and college entry (Fowler, 1992; Jewell,
1989; Burke, 1987; Swanson, 1988).

Conceptual Framework

From the previous review the following framework can be
concluded:
Investment in education is translated into higher
economic growth and investment returns, improved
income equality, and lower poverty. However,
investment in education is challenged by globalization
and knowledge economy, economy, demographic
pressure, finance of education, pedagogical reforms, and
education and migration.
Education is a value chain that requires context
understanding.
Demand of the educational environment in the
value chain is reflected in indications like opportunities of
jobs and economic activities, training, and limitations of
demand.
Supply of the educational environment in the
value chain includes: capacity of quality and quantity of
supply, physical school entities, teaching-organizational,
in addition to personality issues of the teacher and the
student.

RESEARCH METHODS

Hypotheses of the Study

Based on the above reviewed background and the
assumption that Higher Education in Mafraq Governorate
lacks supply of applied sciences majors (such as
agriculture, engineering, architecture, nursery, medicine,
arid land development, and resources management) at
the local university level, it is hypothesized that:

The further schools are located from the central city
(Mafraq), the less they offer quality and quantity in the
educational environments, which impacts the outcomes
of higher education at the governorate level and as
follows:
School location (measured by village distance from the
central city of Mafraq) affects students competitiveness
and preparedness (perceived performance).
central city of Mafraq) affects capacity of quantity of
supply (students and teachers) of the teaching
environment.
central city of Mafraq) affects capacity of capacity of
teaching-organizational entity of the school environment
and of quality of supply.
The hypotheses of the study were investigated based
on field research using surveys. One leader for two
teams of eight assistants conducted the field research.

Field Research - Survey

Surveys were conducted by interviewing a sample of
schools administers from the four directorates in the
North Badia region (Mafraq center, Northwest Badia, and
Northeast Badia) representing the eighteen municipalities
that included a target population of all elementary and
secondary schools. Interviews took place inside the
school building in the municipal office for the whole
sample.

Sampling Technique

A stratified proportional random sample was
used.Stratification was for the eighteen municipalities.The
18 municipalities (covering about 100 villages) included:
(1) Greater Mafraq, (2) New Balama, (3) Zaatri and
Mansheyya, (4) Hausha; (5) Baseleyyah; (6) AsSarhan;
(7) Sabha and Dafyanah; (8) Safawi; (9) Umm Alquttayn
and Makeyftah; (10) Bani hashem; (11) New Rhab; (12)
Mansheyyat Bani Hasan; (13) New Deyr Alkahf; (14) New
Rweyshid: (15) AsSalhiyyah and Nayfah; (16) Alhusseyn
bin Abdullah; (17) Khaldeyyah; (18) New Umm Aljmal.
The total number of sample frame is 337 schools of
which 231 for elementary education, and 96 secondary, 8
vocational and academic, and two vocational. The
proportion is suggested to be about 60%-70% of the
schools distributed over the three directorates and
covering all the municipalities. So from each municipality
only two-thirds of the total available schools were
suggested to be interviewed from both female and male
elementary and secondary schools. Randomization used
the list of schools in each municipality which is
alphabetically ordered. Selection was assigned randomly
Majd and Salem 235

Table 1 frequencies distribution of major characteristics of interviewed municipals

Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Gender
Male 104 45.4 45.4
Female 125 54.6 100.0
Educational Level
Ph.D. 8 3.5 3.5
M.A./M.Sc. 40 17.5 21.0
Diploma 129 56.3 77.3
Bachelor 31 13.5 90.8
College 20 8.7 99.6
Other 1 .4 100.0
Training Workshops
Management 25 10.9 10.9
Pedagogy 6 2.6 13.5
Computer Skills 13 5.7 19.2
Specialized 1 .4 19.7
Other 2 .9 20.5
None 12 5.2 25.8
More than One 170 74.2 100.0
Years of Service
<5 Yrs 76 33.2 33.2
6-10 Yrs 57 24.9 58.1
11-15 Yrs 26 11.4 69.4
16-20 Yrs 29 12.7 82.1
21-15 Yrs 23 10.0 92.1
>25 Yrs 18 7.8 100.0
Place of Residence
Same Village/City 127 55.5 55.5
Another Village 93 40.6 96.1
Another City 9 3.9 100.0
Total 229 100.0 100.0

as every other school in the list until the proportion of 60-
70% of the schools is achieved from each of the female
and male elementary and secondary schools list. Final
sample proportion was 67.9% with a size of 229 schools
administers. Response rate was 67.3% in Mafraq center,
42.3% in Northeast Badia, and 51.5% in Northwest
Badia.

Questionnaire Instrument

The questionnaire included the following sections:
(1) Supply for manpower (human resources) capacity
Teaching Environment:
1.a. Capacity of supply at the schools level in terms of
quantity: (1) School capacity distribution across levels
of education, gender, and pass and fail; (2) Available
levels of study - distribution across gender and pass and
fail; (3) Available fields of study distribution across
gender, and pass and fail; (4) High school education
distribution across gender, fields of study, and pass and
fail; and (5) Available teachers distribution across
majors, gender, age, teaching experience, and teaching
efficacy and hours of teaching (time-use for teaching).
1.b. Capacity of supply at the schools level in terms of
quality: (1) Perception of available teaching pedagogy;
(2) Directing students to choose the track they may need
by providing qualified teacher who provides supervision
and guidance to students; and (3) Obstacles of
concentration at the Ministry of Education Level: financial,
specializations, incentives; (4) Evaluating the impact of
implemented development program provided by the
Ministry of Education and Ministry of Higher Educations
on the local community - limitations and vision.
(2) Supply of the educational environment in the value
chain includes the teaching-organizational and physical
entities, reflected in quality and quantity, in addition to
personality of the teacher and the student - School
Environment:
2.a. Teaching-organizational entity includes
understanding available human resources capacity in
terms of quantity: (1) Strength of leadership ((a)
instructional (educational) (teaching pedagogy), and (b)
structural (organizational: hierarchy of authority,
bureaucracy and hindrance (difficulty of authority), and
participation decisions); (2) staff frustration; (3) positive
classroom environment; (4) caring and support to
students (esprit, intimacy, and student-centeredness); (5)
formalization; and (6) students control (student control
ideology-organizational ideology).
2. b. Physical entity include understanding classroom
and school infrastructure and services: (1) Classroom
environment include: classroom size, classroom
arrangements, lighting, thermal conditions, and air

Table 2 distribution of the dichotomous sub-variables of schools physical entities

Frequency Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Classroom Environment
Classroom Additional Lighting Source
Yes 182 79.5 79.5
No 47 20.5 100.0
Classroom Heat Control
Yes 108 47.2 47.2
No 121 52.8 100.0
Classroom Cooling Control
Yes 60 26.2 26.2
No 169 73.8 99.6
Classroom Natural Ventilation
Yes 200 87.3 87.3
No 29 12.7 100.0
School Environment
Computer Labs
Yes 178 77.7 77.7
No 51 22.3 100.0
Science Labs
Yes 97 42.4 42.4
No 132 57.6 100.0
Art Studios
Yes 31 13.5 13.5
No 198 86.5 100.0
Library
Yes 115 50.2 50.2
No 114 49.8 100.0
Indoor Sports Facility
Yes 27 11.8 11.8
No 202 88.2 100.0
Outdoor Sports Facility
Yes 64 27.9 27.9
No 165 72.1 100.0
Food Facility
Yes 158 69.0 69.0
No 71 31.0 100.0
Praying Facility
Yes 55 24.0 24.0
No 174 76.0 100.0
School Fencing
Yes 150 65.5 65.5
No 79 34.5 100.0
School Gate
Yes 146 63.8 63.8
No 83 36.2 100.0
Rest Rooms
Yes 210 91.7 91.7
No 19 8.3 100.0
Total 229 100.0 100.0

quality; and (2) School environment include: school size,
noise location, building age.
2. c. Other Variables that may affect the teaching-
learning environment include: (1) student attitude
towards the school, student affiliation and involvement,
and students competition; (2) teacher attitude and
teacher performance; and (3) Availability of Services.
(3) Location of these sources from Central city in the
North Badia region.
(4) Student performance - Learning efficacy of
perceived qualitative performance or attainment test
scores of average annual in all subjects such as:
Science, Math, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Geology,
Computer Science, Arabic and English.

Majd and Salem 237

Figure 2 Distribution of students gender across sampled schools
(1 males, 2- females, 3- mixed gender)

Figure 3 Distribution of education level across sampled schools
(1 elementary, 2- secondary, 3- all levels)

Table 3 paired samples test - overall learning efficacy over village distance from mafraq city

Pair 1 Paired Differences T df Sig. (2-
tailed)
Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 95% Confidence Interval of the
Difference
Lower Upper
Perceived Students Performance Overall Learning
Efficacy - Village Distance from Mafraq City
-26.156 33.613 2.226 -30.543 -21.770 -11.750 227 .000

RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

Descriptive Statistics

Demographic Information of interviewed subjects:
Interviewed schools municipals were distributed over
Mafraq Governerate. Location of interviewed schools
from the center of the main city of Mafraq ranged from
the city itself to villages located 218 km away. The
average distance from Mafraq city of the sampled
schools was about 29 km. Interviewed subjects were
about 45% males and 55% females, see Table 1. Their
education level ranged from college to Ph.D. and
distributed as follows: Ph.D. (3.5%), Masters (17.5%),
Diploma (56.3%), Bachelor (13.5%), and College (8.7%),
see Table 1.
Training workshops that municipals received included
training in: management (10.9%), pedagogy (2.6%),
computer skills (5.7%), and specialized training (0.4%),
see Table 1. In terms of years of service for the
interviewed municipals: less than five years of service
(33.2%), 6-10 years (24.9%), 11-15 years (11.4%), 16-20
years (12.7%), 21-15 years 10%, and more than 25 years
(7.8%). About 50% of the subjects served 6-10 years,
see Table 1. More than half of the sample comes from
the same town they work at (55.5%); about 40.6% come
from other villages in the North Badia regions, and only
about 3.9% come from outside the North Badia Region,
see Table 1.

Table 4 paired samples statistics - overall learning efficacy over village distance from mafraq city

Pair 1 Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Perceived Students Performance Overall
Learning Efficacy
3.10 228 .670 .0444
Village Distance from Mafraq City 29.25 228 33.593 2.225

Table 5 anova elementary stage students input/capacity of quantity of supply over village distance from mafraq city

Variable Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.

1
st
Grade No. of Sections 43.880 47 .934 .633 .967
1
st
Grade No. of Students 19233.927 35 549.541 .786 .783
2
nd
2
nd
Grade No. of Students 19058.175 35 544.519 1.531 .060
3
rd
3
rd
4
th
4
th
5
th
5
th
6
th
6
th
7
th
7
th
8
th
8
th
9
th
9
th
10
th
10
th

Descriptive Statistics of School Environment: In terms
of services, about 77.7% of the schools have computer
labs, and only 42.4% have science labs, and 13.5% have
art studios, see Table 2. On the other side, about half the
sample have libraries (50.2%) school library, see Table 2.
Further, only 11.8% of the schools have indoor sports
facilities, and 27.9% have outdoor sports facilities, see
Table 2. In addition, about two-thirds (69%) have food
facility, and only 24% have praying facility, see Table 2.
About two-thirds (65.5%) have school fencing, and about
two-thirds (63.8%) have school gates, see Table 2. Most
of the schools (91.7) have rest rooms, see Table 2.
School size measured by students numbers ranged from
schools that have less than 50 students (6.2%) to schools
that have 500-757 students (3.2% of the sample).
However, 61.1% of the schools have less than 150
students, and the most occurring school size is 150-200
students (40.7%). School area ranged from 54-10000
square meters, with the most occurring area of 200-500
square meters (39.9%). About half the sample (48%) has
area of less than 500 square meters. Further, 79% of the
sample agreed on the schools being located in a quite
zone and away from noise. About half of the sample
(54.6%) agreed that their schools are well maintained.
Descriptive Statistics of Quantity of Educational Supply:
The distribution of gender across the sampled schools
was as follows: 41.05% males, 19.65% females, and
39.30% mixed genders, see Figure 2. The education
level across the sampled schools was as follows: about
57.64% of schools were elementary, 10.48% secondary,
and 31.88% have all levels, see Figure 3
Capacity of Teaching-Organizational Entity of the
Supply and Capacity of Quality of Education Supply at
the School Level and Other Variables
Capacity of Teaching-Organizational Entity of the
Supply: Instructional capacity was assessed with an
average of 4 and a tendency of strong agreement;
structural agreement was also with an average of 4.1 and
a tendency of strong agreement; staff frustration has a
tendency of disproval with an average of 2.6; positive
classroom environment has a slight tendency of approval
with an average of 3.7; caring and support for students
has a slight tendency of approval with an average of 4;
formalization has a tendency of strong agreement with an
average of 4.2; and students control has a strong
agreement with an average of 4.2.
Capacity of Quality of Education Supply at the School
Level: Perception of existing pedagogy has a slight
tendency of approval with an average of 3.8; directing
students to choose the right stream also received slight
approval with an average of 3.5; and obstacles by the
Ministry of Education concentration has a tendency of
agreement with an average of 4.0.
Other Variables: Included students attitude with a
tendency of slight agreement (M=3.8); teachers attitude
with a tendency of agreement (M=3.98); available school
Majd and Salem 239

Table 6 anova eleventh grade stage students input/capacity of quantity of supply over village distance from mafraq city


Scientific/11
th
Grade No. of Sections 11.406 47 .243 1.070 .368
Scientific/11
th
Literature/11
th
Literature/11
th
Computer/11
th
Computer/11
th
Nursing/11
th
Grade No. of Sections .984 47 .021 .965 .544
Nursing/11
th
Grade No. of Students 144.500 1 144.500 . .
Trade/11
th
Industrial/11
th
Agricultural/11
th
Management/11
th
Vocational/11
th
Grade No. of Sections .552 47 .012 .290 1.000
Vocational/11
th
Beauty/11
th

services has a slight agreement with M=3.4; and
perceived students performance has a tendency of slight
agreement M=3.1.
Education Outputs - Student performance - Learning
Efficacy of Perceived Qualitative Performance or
Attainment Test Scores of Average Annual in all Subjects
Overall perceived students performance averaged 3.1
with agreement. Meanwhile, perceived students
performances in all subjects were as follows:
Science ranged from 1-5 with M= 3.2.
Math ranged from 1-5 with M= 2.9.
Physics ranged from 1-5 with M= 2.7.
Chemistry ranged from 1-5 with M= 2.9.
Biology ranged from 1-5 with M= 3.1.
Geology ranged from 1-5 with M= 3.2.
Computer Science ranged from 1-5 with M= 3.4.
Arabic ranged from 1-5 with M= 3.7.
English ranged from 1-5 with M= 2.9.

Relationships with Village Distance from Mafraq City

In order to test the hypothesis that the further schools are
located from the central city (Mafraq), the less they offer
quality and quantity in the educational environments
physically and organizationally the following statistical
multi-level analysis of Badia Regions over overall
students performance, quantitative and qualitative inputs
of supply, as well as, teaching organization were carried
out.
Overall Perceived Performance over Village Distance -
Paired Test: Paired test for the perceived overall
students performance over village distance indicated
significant effect t = -11.75, see Table 3. Where
perceived students performance (overall learning
efficacy) has a mean of M = 3.10, and village distance
has a mean of M = 29.25.84, see Table 4.
Effect of Overall Perceived Performance by
Quantitative Inputs of Supply/Students over Village
Distance - ANOVA Test: Further analysis was carried out
to investigate the effect of village distance over capacity
of quantity of education supply of students using anova
test.
Quantitative Inputs of Elementary Stage Supply
(Number of Sections and Students) over Village
Distance: The test of effect of directorates of village
distance over capacity of quantity of education supply at
the elementary stage using anova test (Table 5),
indicated that numbers of students at the elementary
level are affected by village distance for grades of fourth
and fifth elementary grades.
Quantitative Inputs of Eleventh Grade Stage Supply
over Village Distance: The test of effect of village
distance over capacity of quantity of education Supply at
the eleventh grade stage using ANOVA test of variance
(Table 6) indicated that none of the inputs of eleventh
grade are significant.
Quantitative Inputs of Twelfth Grade Stage Supply over
Village Distance: The test of effect of village distance
over capacity of quantity of education supply at the
twelfth grade stage using ANOVA test of varaince (Table
7) indicated that none of the inputs of twelfth grade are
significant.
Effect of Overall Perceived Performance by
Quantitative Inputs of Supply/Teachers over Village
Distance - ANOVA Test: Further analysis was carried out
to investigate the effect of village distance over capacity
of quantity of education supply of teachers using ANOVA
test. The test of effect of village distance over capacity of
quantity of education supply of teachers using ANOVA
test (Table 8) indicated that numbers of languages
teachers is affected by village distance.
Effect of Overall Perceived Performance by Teaching-
Organization and Capacity of Quality of Supply and Other

Table 7 anova test twelfth grade stage students input/capacity of quantity of supply over village distance from mafraq city

Variable Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Scientific/12
th
Scientific/12
th
Literature/12
th
Literature/12
th
Computer/12
th
Computer/12
th
Nursing/12
th
Nursing/12
th
Trade/12
th
Industrial/12
th
Grade No. of Sections .000 47 .000 . .
Agricultural/12
th
Management/12
th
Vocational/12
th
Vocational/12
th
Beauty/12
th

Table 8 anova teachers input/capacity of quantity of supply over village distance from mafraq city


Religion Number of Teachers 32.331 47 .688 .737 .891
Arabic Number of Teachers 74.918 47 1.594 .732 .896
English Number of Teachers 50.122 47 1.066 .748 .879
Culture Number of Teachers 10.552 47 .225 .782 .839
Math Number of Teachers 42.597 47 .906 .608 .977
Science Number of Teachers 37.144 47 .790 .727 .900
Physics Number of Teachers 14.369 47 .306 .806 .806
Chemistry Number of Teachers 9.702 47 .206 .668 .948
Biology Number of Teachers 13.023 47 .277 1.014 .459
Geology Number of Teachers 7.513 47 .160 1.023 .442
Computer Number of Teachers 21.431 47 .456 .506 .996
Geography Number of Teachers 11.063 47 .235 .455 .999
History Number of Teachers 13.768 47 .293 .834 .765
Arts Number of Teachers 9.129 47 .194 .524 .995
Athleticss Number of Teachers 16.596 47 .353 .811 .798
Music Number of Teachers .769 47 .016 .580 .985
Languages Number of Teachers 144.521 47 3.075 1.442 .047

Variables over Village Distance - ANOVA Test: Further
analysis was carried out to investigate the effect of
perceived overall all performance over village distance by
teaching-organization and capacity of quality of education
supply and other variables using anova test. Results in
Table 9 showed a significant effect for structural entity
and formalization.
Regression Model for the Significant Attributes Effect of
Overall Students Performance over Village Distance: The
hypothesis that overall student performance is affected
by a set of attributes over village distance was reported
significant in Table 10.
Factors that contributed to the regression model in the
order of their strong effect are: Available School services,
structural entity, languages number of teachers, and third
grade number of students, see Table 11.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall perceived performance was affected differently by
village ditsance from Central City of Mafraq. Village
distance is not associated with any of the elementary
grade inputs.Further, village distance is associated with
number of students at eleventh grade computer, nursing,
and vocational streams; and with number of sections at
eleventh grade literature stream. The study showed a
strong and negative association with number of students
at twelfth grade computer stream; positive association of
number of students vocational stream; and a positive
association with number of sections of literature stream.
Also, village distance is only associated with number of
arts teachers and school education level, and negatively

Majd and Salem 241

Table 9 anova test - distribution of perceived students performance/overall learning efficacy over organizational entity, capacity of quality of supply and other variables over
village distance from mafraq city

Perceived Students Performance Overall Learning Efficacy 20.946 47 .446 .991 .497
Students Gender 34.306 47 .730 .884 .684
School Education Level 46.539 47 .990 1.219 .180
Instructional 8.622 47 .183 1.293 .119
Structural 17.336 47 .369 1.630 .012
Staff Frustration 49.581 47 1.055 1.324 .099
Positive Classroom Environment 28.144 47 .599 .999 .484
Caring & Support for Students 21.054 47 .448 1.044 .408
Formalization 16.773 47 .357 1.477 .037
Students Control 10.304 47 .219 1.171 .232
Perception of Existing Pedagogy 15.734 47 .335 .908 .643
Directing Students Track 49.821 47 1.060 1.132 .279
Obstacles of Ministry Concentration 23.509 47 .500 .835 .764
Students Attitude 13.408 47 .285 .990 .499
Teachers Attitude 17.018 47 .362 1.280 .129
Available School Services 25.586 47 .544 1.418 .055

Table 10 multivariate tests model - village distance from mafraq city over significant variables

Effect Wilks' Lambda Value F Hypothesis df Error df Sig.
Intercept .008 916.773 8.000 62.000 .000
Village Distance from Mafraq City .019 1.227 272.000 500.955 .026

Table 11 tests of between-subjects effects - village distance from mafraq city over significant variables

Source Dependent Variable Type III Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Corrected Model Structural 14.721
a
34 .433 1.787 .021
Staff Frustration 27.043
b
34 .795 .949 .557
Formalization 7.468
c
34 .220 .757 .812
Available School Services 21.219
d
34 .624 1.810 .019
2nd Grade No. of Students 15923.450
e
34 468.337 1.335 .154
3rd Grade No. of Students 13175.737
f
34 387.522 1.622 .045
4th Grade No. of Students 12945.420
g
34 380.748 1.326 .160
Languages Number of Teachers 116.355
h
34 3.422 1.755 .024
Intercept Structural 987.373 1 987.373 4075.525 .000
Staff Frustration 425.628 1 425.628 507.718 .000
Formalization 1061.689 1 1061.689 3658.131 .000
Available School Services 658.463 1 658.463 1910.145 .000
2nd Grade No. of Students 31726.732 1 31726.732 90.427 .000
3rd Grade No. of Students 24856.863 1 24856.863 104.053 .000
4th Grade No. of Students 21976.610 1 21976.610 76.560 .000
Languages Number of Teachers 43.110 1 43.110 22.111 .000
Total Structural 1794.194 104
Staff Frustration 798.234 104
Formalization 1876.361 104
Available School Services 1216.914 104
2nd Grade No. of Students 116327.000 104
3rd Grade No. of Students 89419.000 104
4th Grade No. of Students 87768.000 104
Languages Number of Teachers 298.000 104

associated with teachers attitude and available school
services.
In terms of capacity of quantity of education supply at
the elementary level effect on perceived overall
performance over village distance, results indicated that
numbers of students at the elementary level from of
fourth and fifth grades are affected by village distance. In
terms of capacity of quantity of education supply at the
eleventh and twelfth grade levels effect on perceived
overall performance over village distance, results


indicated that none of the eleventh and twelfth grade
level inputs are affected by village distance. In terms of
capacity of quantity of education supply of teachers
effect on perceived overall performance over village
distance, results indicated that only numbers of
languages teachers are affected.
In terms of teaching-organization and capacity of
quality of education supply and other variables effect on
perceived overall performance over village distance,
results indicated that structural entity and formalization
are affected by village distance which supports Evans et
al. (1991), Berglund and Lindvall (1986), and Cohen et al.
(1986). Overall student performance is affected by a set
of attributes over village distance was reported
significant. Factors that contributed to the regression
model in the order of their strong effect are: available
school services; structural entity; languages number of
teachers; and third grade number of students.
Inputs strength is characterized by the availability of all
streams; teachers specialties, capacity, skills, and
cooperation; small students numbers; and available
electronic pedagogy. However, input weaknesses:
dispersed school from residential settings.

RECOMMENDATIONS

It is fruitful to conceptualize social environment of a
school from a multiple perspective, including the
instructional, structural, human resource, political, and
cultural aspects, and to study its relations with the
performance of teachers and students.Policy makers
should not be mainly concerned about the inputs of
schooling (finance, curriculum, and student allocation),
but also they should pay attention to the internal process
of the school, such as instructional approaches, school
structure, etc. Major issues that should be considered by
education policy makers include:
Emphasis of joining schools together, as it seems
number of students as well as section are vital for output
and more so than number of teachers. Many schools are
suffering, especially in the Northeast Badia Region, from
small number of students in geographically dispersed
villages. It is healthier to increase numbers of students to
a range of 20-30 per section for completion among
students.
Number of teachers and their major seem to be
sufficient and more importantly are their attitude. This
suggests working more on enhancing the teachers
attitude, as their qualifications seem sufficient but they
lack inspiration and incentives and it seems to be a
worthwhile issue of investment by policy maker of higher
education.
Physical infrastructure that supports students activity
seems vital and affects students performance positively.

Therefore, it is worth to invest in sports and arts facilities,
and the like.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Funding for this research was provided by Deanship of
Scientific Research, German-Jordanian University,
Amman, Jordan, in 2008.

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2012.Special Anniversary Review Issue


Structural model of factors influencing consumers'
intention to use natural gas: an application of planned
behaviour theory

1
Tubagus Haryono,
2
Ujang Sumarwan,
3
Asep Saefuddin,
4
Hartoyo

1
Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
2
Department of Family and Consumer Sciences and Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural
University, Indonesia
3
Departement of Statistic, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
4
Department of Family and Consumer Sciences and Graduate School of Management and Business,
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia


Oil and Gas play very important role in Indonesian Economy as a source of domestic energy, feedstock
for national industry and source of government income. To support the government's plan, this study
need to formulate the strategy of the Gas City development in Indonesia by identifying the factors that
influence consumers perceptions, attitudes and intentions in using natural gas, which refers to the
model proposed by Icek Ajzen (1991) which is known as The Theory of Planned Behaviour. Based on
statistic examination toward parameter (Gamma) are able to conclude that there is a positive and
significant influence from attitude toward behaviour, power of controlling behaviour factor and
perceived risk toward the intention to use gas. In addition to, the demography factor is including a
significant factor in forming respondent decision for using natural gas. The respondent in higher
economic status, have more independent opinion (attitude toward behaviour, the consequence
evaluation, control beliefs, power of control behaviour) to determine using or not using natural gas. The
suggestion which come from government and most of user is turn out them to influence using the
natural gas. Likewise to the respondent in middle and low economic status but they still also have been
thinking about the perceived risk that might be come when using the gas.

Keywords: city gas, intention, Theory of Reasoned Action, Theory of Planned behaviour.

INTRODUCTION

Indonesian Law No. 22 year 2001 on Oil and Gas, said
that the implementation of oil and gas should be able to
ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of the availability
of oil and gas, both as a source of energy and as
industrial raw materials or as a source of state revenue.
Further in Presidential Regulation No.5 Year 2006 on

*Corresponding author Email: tbgs.haryono@yahoo.com
National Energy Policy is to be taken step-by-step use of
alternative energy as a substitute fuel in order to reduce
fuel subsidies, and including the use of natural gas.
Based on data sourced from the Directorate General of
Oil and Gas, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources,
in 2011, natural gas production averaged 8.43 BSCFD
(Billion Standard Cubic Feet per Day or billion standard
cubic feet per day). Of the total production, which is used
in the country at 41.2% or BSCFD of 3.47, while those
exported by 53% or by 4.47 BSCFD. While the rest of

5.8% or 0.49 BSCFD is loses. Portions export of natural
gas are still great, in addition due to the obligation to fulfil
contractual commitments that have been signed in the
past, also due to the export price of gas is much higher
than the price of gas to the domestic market, so the
producers prefer to export natural gas of the selling in the
country. Increased use of natural gas in addition will
reduce kerosene consumption, it will also reduce the
consumption of LPG, so the LPG which was originally
use to meet the needs of urban areas will be used as
additional allocations to meet the needs in areas that do
not have natural gas distribution network. The areas that
have the potential sources of natural gas supply, such as
Samarinda, Balikpapan, Tarakan, Bontang and shoves a
region which has a gas production field, or who skipped
transmission pipelines or areas that already have a
natural gas distribution pipelines need to be prioritized
town gas. Energy needs from day to day continues to
increase, but this condition is not offset by the availability
of energy resources, especially petroleum energy
sources (fuel), coal and natural gas. The main factors
that determine the level of demand for fuel, is economic
growth, population, fuel prices, and the pattern of energy
use in the past. Therefore, to ensure the security of
energy supply in the country and to support sustainable
development, the Government set a National Energy
Policy as a guide in the management of national energy.
The policy stipulated in Presidential Regulation. 5 year,
2006, on National Energy Policy. On the other hand we
are more gas reserves than oil reserves, but in fact the
use of petroleum has been widely spread throughout the
archipelago. While the use of gas, only spread to several
cities and provinces only. Therefore, the city government
communicate the formation of gas, which aims to improve
the utilization of gas for our country. Increased use of
natural gas in the country, besides aiming at providing
cheap energy and environment-friendly society, can also
reduce the financial burden of the state in subsidizing
energy, particularly oil. Providing for the needs of the
natural gas with natural gas selling prices are lower than
the fuel subsidy, it will encourage people to switch from
using natural gas to fuel subsidies. Fuel Subsidy burden
state finances have been so, especially in 2008, when
crude oil prices break the USD140/barrel. At that time,
the financial burden of the state to achieve energy
subsidies IRD 223 billion, consisting of a fuel subsidy by
the IRD 139.1 trillion and electricity subsidies for IRD
83.9 trillion. The realization of fuel subsidy (fuel) in 2011
based on sources from the Directorate General of Oil and
Gas Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
mentioned reach 165.2 trillion or IRD 127.4 per cent
above the target set in budget change 2011 of IRD 129.7
trillion. Increased use of natural gas with larger portions
and more widely in various areas in Indonesia is
expected to provide added value (added value) and a
greater increase in macroeconomic side. Through
integrated planning and analysis is expected to be
Tubagus et al 245

produced a draft strategic plan and in the development of
gas distribution pipeline infrastructure and facilities to
serve the household consumers and small customers in
various regions in Indonesia.

Research Objectives

This study aimed to identify the presence of the influence
of each of the latent exogenous variables, endogenous
latent variable, by means of statistical tests on the
parameters (Gamma) that can ultimately be one of the
corner stone Gas City development strategy formulation
in Indonesia. Intention model examined in this study
refers to the model of Theory of Plan Behaviour proposed
by Icek Ajzen (1991).

Novelty

Based on the facts uncovered, the novelty aspect of this
research is the application concepts of Theory of Planned
Behaviour in the program grow the town gas. This study
also proves the confidence to provide an immediate
effect in the control of behaviour to accept, but found a
correlation between the variables of trust with subjective
norms and attitudes on behaviour, as well as the
correlation between the variables attitude toward
behaviour with subjective norm.

Reasonable Behaviour Theory and the Theory of
Planned Behaviour

An important step in the history of the theory of attitude
has developed through the Theory of reasoned Action
and its successor, the Theory of Planned Behaviour
(Armitage and Conner, 2001). These theories are based
on the idea that the behaviour of jointly dependent on the
intention and behavioural control (Ajzen, 1971; 1991).
However, empirically, the operationalization of the theory
of reasoned attitudes (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975) states
that the link between behavioural intention and attitude
toward the behaviour. The intention is not only dependent
on the attitude, but also on subjective norms or perceived
social pressure given by others, such as parents and
good friends, to perform or not perform a behaviour.
The theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991) is a
continuation of the theory of reasoned attitude through
two variables controlling behaviour, i.e. the attitude
toward behaviour and subjective norm. Fishbein and
Ajzen joined forces to explore how to predict behaviours
and outcomes. They assume that individuals are usually
quite rational and systematic use of information made
available to them. One considers the implications of their
actions before they decide to engage or not engage in a
particular behaviour (Ajzen and Fishbein, 1980, p 5). The

theory of reasoned attitude is a theory that can predict
and understand the behaviour and outcomes through
attitude toward behaviour and subjective norm, this
framework is known as the Theory of Reason Action.
According Sumarwan (2011) theory of reasoned
attitude is the development of theories that emphasize
the attitude towards an attitude object, the theory linking
between the beliefs and attitudes of consumers with the
intention behaviour (Sumarwan, 2011). The theory of
reasoned attitudes began to become part of the social
sciences, Ajzen and other researchers realized that this
theory is not adequate and it has some limitations (Godin
and Kok, 1996).
The main difference between the theory and the theory
of reasoned behaviour attitude is the addition of a third
determinant of behavioural intention, perceived
behavioural control or perceived behavioural control.
Perceived behavioural control, are additional variables
that exist in the theory of planned behaviour. It is
assumed to have a direct impact on intention and
behaviour (Ajzen, 1991). Behavioural control refers to the
availability of the necessary opportunities and resources
such as time, money, and the cooperation of others, have
a direct impact on behaviour. Since this process is often
difficult to measure, perceived behavioural control is
usually used as an approach to controlling the actual
behaviour (Eagly and Chaiken, 1993). It is often assumed
that the two are correlated (Garling et al, 1998).
Perceived behavioural control is determined by two
factors that control beliefs or control beliefs and
perceived power or perceived power. Perceived
behavioural control suggests that motivation is influenced
by how difficult behaviours that are considered, as well as
perceptions of how individuals can succeed, or cannot do
activities. If someone holds strong control beliefs about
the factors that would facilitate the behaviour, then the
individual will have a major impact on perceived control
behaviour. Instead, the person will have a low perception
of control if he holds strong control beliefs that inhibit
behaviour. This perception may reflect past experience,
anticipating the upcoming situation, and attitudes
influence the norms that surround the individual
(Mackenzie and Jurs, 1993).

Trust as an element in Consumer Behaviour

According Simamora (2003) belief is a descriptive
thought that a person has about something, trust can be
knowledge, opinions or simply believes and this belief will
form the image of the product and brand.
Some journals that discussed the theory of planned
behaviour as developed by Mazzocchi et al (2004) put his
beliefs as an additional predictor of consumer behaviour.
Darby and Karni (1973) explains that even though the
trust is a certainty, but it is similar to the knowledge and
attention needs to be placed on the individual's perceived

risk in combination with certain patterns of behaviour.
Integration of perceived risk and trust within the
framework of the theory of planned behaviour were also
considered affected individual characteristics of different
generating new development model called SPARTA II.
SPARTA is an acronym for baseline variables suspected
to establish consumer behavioural intentions, namely wiki
norm or subjective norm, perceived behavioural control or
perceived behavioural control, attitude toward
behavioural or attitude toward the behaviour, perceived
risk or perceived risk, and alia or variable sub
demographics (Mazzocchi et al, 2004).
Confidence hypothesized effect on the perceived risk in
particular, which only directly affects consumer intentions.
In another study Pavlou and Chai (2002) explain that
trust is hypothesized as a faith that does not directly
affect attitudes and intentions through perceived
behavioural control, although the journal Pavlou and Chai
(2002) also investigated the involvement of culture in
influencing intentions.

Assessment Research Accomplished

Many researchers have contributed his thought in the
realm of theory of planned behaviour. Some of the
researchers like McKnight, Choudhury, Kacmar (2002),
Kim, Ferrin and Rao (2007) and Dierks (2007).
McKnight, Choudhury, Kacmar (2002) in his journal
entitled The Impact of Initial Consumer Trust on
Intentions to Transact with a Web Site: Faith
Development Model explains that the research conducted
to develop and test a model of consumer confidence in
online business (e-commerce vendors). Building trust is
the key to consumer sales of web-based, strong beliefs
influence consumer intentions to transact with a seller
over the web. Confidence allows consumers overcome
perceptions of uncertainty and risk, and link three critical
behaviours that follow; receive offers advice from the
seller, the seller circuitry sharing personal information,
and purchase run website seller. Confidence is defined
as a multi-dimensional with two interrelated components
called Belief in belief itself (perception of competence,
kindness and integrity of the seller) and the belief in the
intention-willingness to depend (a decision that remains
of the seller). Three factors are proposed to build
consumer confidence: certainty structural (consumer
perceptions of web security), owned by the seller's
reputation and perception of the quality of the website. In
this case the quality of the website and the reputation of
being a major factor for fostering consumer confidence to
overcome the negative perception of them. The study
also suggested that perceived risk negatively impact
online consumer intention to want to interact with web-
based sellers.
Kim, Ferrin and Rao (2007) in his journal entitled A
Trust-based consumer decision-making model in
Tubagus et al 247

electronic commerce: The Role of Trust, Perceived Risk,
And Their Antecedents explained that the purpose of the
research to develop a theory that explains the basic
process of decision-making by consumers when deciding
to buy from a particular website, and test the proposed
model using structural equation modelling the behaviour
of buying through the Internet by using data collected
through a web research, and consider the impact of these
models. Results showed that consumer confidence and
acceptable risk have a strong impact on the consumer to
make a purchase decision. The tendency of consumers
to trust the web reputation, concern for privacy and
security, the quality of information from the Internet and
corporate reputation has a strong effect on consumer
confidence in the Internet. Interestingly, the guarantee of
the three parties did not give a great effect on consumer
confidence.
Dierks (2007) in his journal entitled does trust influence
consumer behaviour Dierks explains that examines the
role of trust as a determinant of consumer behaviour in
Germany. The empirical analysis suggests that the
impact of belief on consumer behaviour at this time may
have been overlooked. Although there is the essential
element of trust is incorporated with a deeper
understanding of the behaviour of consumerism. The
results showed that trust plays an important role when
the product to the attention of the market.

Research Location and Time

Tarakan city is selected with an area 250.80 km
including the town close to the source of gas that consists
of 4 (four) District; West Tarakan, Middle Tarakan, East
Tarakan and north Tarakan. Interviews were conducted
on January 19 to March 31, 2012. While the data
processing began in April 2012 to complete.

Research design

Research was conducted by using descriptive survey
approach by distributing questionnaires to the public
(respondents) aged 20 to over 55 years. Respondents
were asked to fill out about preferences, personal factors,
socio-economic, educational, and factors related to the
use of natural gas as a fuel for household activities.

Research Methods

Study used the descriptive method approach through the
distribution of questionnaires to survey respondents aged
20 and over 55 years as many as 416 respondents. The
variables used are the people who use or do not use
natural gas as the dependent variable. While the
independent variables thought to affect consumer
intentions are perceived, the level of interest and
demographics (personal, socio-economic, educational).
Data processing is performed using AMOS 18 of SPSS
software through analysis approach SEM (Structural
Equation Modelling).

Sampling Techniques

Sampling technique used in this study was multistage
random sampling. Sampling started from the district till
the neighbourhood by using purposive sampling.
Research took a sample of 416 respondents aged 20 and
over 55 years was randomized in Tarakan City. Prior to
sampling, the study mapped the first sub-villages in two
sub categories, namely village fed by natural gas
pipelines, each taken 100 respondents / village
temporarily represent this in the Karang Balik Village and
Sebengkok Village.
While the village is not flowed gas pipelines
represented by region West Tarakan and Central
Tarakan and took 50 respondents each districts
randomly. In addition, the use of secondary data obtained
by the method of documentation or direct quotes from
various sources through library research (library
research). Studying and examining in the form of books,
journals, or papers with a view to obtaining the theories
and concepts related to the problem studied do the
research literature.
Figure 1 Sampling Technic
TARAKAN
CITY

District
Tarakan Barat
District
Tarakan Tengah
District
Tarakan Timur
District
Tarakan Utara
Sub Distict

Sebengkok

(sample: 103)
Sub Distict
KarangBalik

(sample: 113)
Sub Distict

KarangAnyar

(sample: 40)
Sub Distict

Karang Anyar
Pantai

Sub Distict

Karang Harapan

Kelurahan
Karang Rejo

(sample: 10)
Sub Distict

Kampung 1 Skip

Kelurahan
Pamusian

Sub Distict

Selumit

(sample: 14)
Kelurahan
Selumit Pantai

(sample: 36)
Sub Distict

Gunung Lingkas

(sample: 22)
Sub Distict

Lingkas Ujung

(sample: 28)
Sub Distict

Kampung 4

Sub Distict

Kampung 6

Sub Distict

Mamburungan

Sub Distict

Mamburungan
Timur

Sub Distict

Pantai Amal

Sub Distict

Juata Kerikil

(sample: 20)
Sub Distict

Juata Laut

Sub Distict

Juata Permai

(sample: 30)
Surveyed Sub Distict


Descriptive analysis

In data processing, a descriptive analysis is intended to
transform the raw data set into more concise information
that is easy to understand. Thus, the purpose of the
analysis is descriptive is to simplify the data into a form
that is more easily read and interpreted. Descriptive
analysis consists of two stages. The first stage is to
tabulate data on the respondents, and the second stage
is to interpret the data from the tabulation. The
descriptive analysis in this study is used to simplify the
demographic data, perceptions and consumer behaviour.

Research variables

Consumer Intentions consists of the intention to use and
not use natural gas. Measurement intention or interest of
consumers is done using a scale of measurement
interval. Variable to determine the consumer intention
consists of: consumer intention to use / not using natural
gas (behaviour intentions, Attitude Toward Behaviour:
According to Gagne and Briggs (1974) in Aiken, SC
(2002), attitude is an internal state (internal state) that
affect individual's choice of action to the object, person or
event, wiki norm: factors outside the individual that
contains a person's perception of whether others will
approve or disapprove of a behaviour that is displayed
(Baron and Byrne, 2000) or a person's perception of the
social pressure to display or not display the behaviour
(Ajzen, 2005), perceived control behaviour: perceptions
about the ease or difficulty to display the behaviour of use
/ continue to use natural gas. Demographics:
Demographics aimed to describe the grouping of
respondents into categories based on age, education
level, monthly income, and monthly expenses.

Method of Data Analysis

The method used in this study using SEM analysis
approach (Structural Equation Modelling / Structural
Equation Models. Reasons for using SEM analysis
techniques in this research involve the measurement and
analysis of the latent variables. Latent variables are
variables that are not measured directly but measured
through indicators where these indicators are measured
directly / asked directly to the respondent as an object of
research. In terms of SEM, the indicators that directly
measured from observations of objects are often referred
to as manifest variables or observed variables. Equation
model of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) allows
examining a set of relationships between one or more
independent variables and the dependent variable is
either continuous or discrete. Basically SEM is a
combination of factor analysis and path analysis.

Structural model so that a formula based on the model
and hypotheses are as follows:
1 = 1.1 . 1 + 2.1 . 2 + 2.1 . 2 + 3.1 . 3
2 = 3.2 . 3
3 = 3.3 . 3

While the similarities between the indicator variables
and the latent variables are as follows:
1 = 1.1 X1 + 2.1 X2
2 = 3.2 X3 + 4.2 X4
2 = 5.2 X5 + 6.2 X6
1 = 7.1 X7
Where:
1 = Attitude toward the behavior
2 = Subjective norm
3 = Confidence
1 = Intention
2 = perceived behavioural control
3 = perceived risk
X1 = Confidence behaviour
X2 = Evaluation of consequences
X3 = normative belief
X4 = motivation to comply with
X5 = power factor control
X6 = Confidence control
X7 = Demographics

Structural Model

In this study is a latent variable is the variable Attitude
Toward Behaviour, Subjective Norm, Perceived
Behavioural Control, Trust, Perceived Risk and Intention
to Use Natural Gas (Intention). Latent variable is
measured through indicators that can be directly
measured through scores on each object of research. In
the structural equation model (SEM) are two important
parts, namely: Measurement Model and Structural Model.
Hair et.al in the Imam Ghozali (2004) propose structural
equation modelling stage and into seven steps:
Development of model-based theory, the path diagram,
line diagram conversion into structural equation, selection
of input matrices and estimation techniques on the
proposed model, Assessing the structural model
identification, estimation model evaluation criteria
Goodness-of-fit, interpretation and modification / re
specification model. Basically, the seven steps are
systematic steps to test the fit between the hypothesized
model is based on the theoretical framework of the model
estimates are calculated based on data from the
measurement of the object of research. The degree of fit
between the hypothesized models with a model based on
sample data obtained indicated the suitability index
model (GFI / Goodness of Fit Index).
While the reliability of the measurement of latent
variables can be calculated from the estimated value of

Tubagus et al 249

the standardized loading factor Construct Reliability view
using the following formula
2
1
2
1 1
n
i
i
n n
i i
i i
C o n s t r u c t R e l i a b i l i t y

=
= =

=

+

Where,
= Loading factor
= measurement error = 1- 2
Limitation reliability coefficient used is the standard
coefficient of reliability of Guilford and Fruchter (1972)
where values: reliability coefficient> 0.9 otherwise very
reliable, 0.7 - 0.9 otherwise reliable, 0.4 - 0.7 otherwise
quite reliable, 0.2 - 0.4 otherwise less reliable, the
reliability coefficient <0.2 otherwise unreliable.
Based Output AMOS 18 program, the results of testing
the research model can be described in the following
chart:
Based on the structural model diagram above looks all
parameters have estimated p-value below 0.05, thus all
the parameters are expressed significant. But the value
of GFI above structural models is relatively low (0.734); in
the sense that it is possible to do re specification the
model in order to obtain a better structural models fit the
data.
Based on the modification index values AMOS output
results showed no significant correlation relationship
between the exogenous latent variables, namely: a
correlational relationship between the latent variables
Subjective Norms with confidence, correlational
relationships between latent variables Attitudes Toward
Behaviour with confidence, Correlational relationship
between latent variables Attitudes Towards Conduct by
Subjective Norms. Modification / re-specification of the
hypothetical model can be described as follows:
The model that has been in the re-specification of the
above has a value greater than 0.802 GFI GFI value of
the previous model. It shows the results of the model fit to
the data re specification more research. Furthermore,
these models serve as the best model to make the
interpretation of the relationship between variables.
Parameter (Gamma) represents the amount of
influence of each of the latent endogenous latent
exogenous, If the value of the parameter (Gamma)
equals 0 (zero) means there is no effect of these factors
on preference and if the parameter (Gamma) is not
equal to 0 (zero) means there is the influence of these
factors on preferences To test the hypothesis statistically
tested against the values of each parameter (Gamma).
The results of hypothesis testing on the value of the
gamma parameter indicate p-value less than 0.05 chance
of making mistakes.

Interpersonal Latent Variables

Based on the model already looks di re-specification
correlational relationship between exogenous latent
variables. The results of the statistical test for correlations
between parameters of latent exogenous variables
conclude that: There is a positive relationship between
latent variables Subjective Norms with Confidence, There
is a positive relationship between latent variables

Figure 2 Structural Equation Modelling

Figure 3 Modification Model

Table 1 The Direct and Indirect Variable Intention Of Using Natural Gas.

Table 2 Role of Demographic Factors against Latent Factors

A, B C1, C2, D, E
Attitudes toward behavioural Behavioural belief 79.0% 79.5%
Evaluation of consequences 91.7% 89.0%
Subjective norm Normative beliefs 71.8% 61.6%
Motivation comply 44.8% 66.6%
Controlling behaviour Confidence control 94.4% 85.9%
The power factor control 94.4% 85.1%
Confidence Confidence 83.3% 65.5%
Perceived Risks Perceived Risks 76.2% 63.5%

Table 3 Role of Motivation Factors Demographics Comply

A, B C1, C2, D, E
Prompts most people 61.9% 65.4%
Influence of parents / husband / wife 49.2% 64.2%
Advice from friends 49.2% 65.9%
Appeal of the Government 84.5% 74.6%
Prompts from TV, radio and magazines 47.6% 64.1%

Attitudes Toward Behaviour with Confidence, There is a
positive relationship between latent variables Attitudes
Toward Behaviour Subjective Norms. Based on the
output values obtained AMOS influence of each variable
on the variable Using Natural Gas Interests that are
shown in the table.
Based on the table above, we see that the variable
Attitude Toward Behaviour has the greatest influence on
Intentions Using Natural Gas that is equal to 0.634. While
the influence of Perceived Risk variable is equal to 0.185,
this variable has the smallest influence than other
variables. Variable belief though not directly affect
Intention Using Natural Gas, but remains an important
variable that affects the variables Intentions Using
Natural Gas as it can influence indirectly through a
variable power control and Risk Factors in feel, while
demographic factors in this case the level of socio-
economic effect on the intention of using natural gas
0.285.

Attitudes of Respondents by Demographics (The
Economic Status)

Demographics are a factor that has a significant role in
shaping one's intention in using natural gas.
Demographics are reviewed in this study is the economic
status of the respondent-level factors. Based on the role
of demographic factors (level of economic status) on the
factors that influence the intention shown in the table.
The table above shows the responses of the
respondents in answering agree or strongly agree to
each of the latent factors based on the level of economic
status of respondents. The level of economic status in
this study was divided into 6 categories such as A, B, C1,
C2, D, and E each have a different status levels i.e. from
high to low in order. Factor A has a higher level than B, B
is higher level than the C1 and so on up to the level of E.
How to measure each level of the economic status was
calculated by considering three measures, namely the
classification based on the observation of the surveyor,
the number of facilities or property owned and
expenditures each month. In this analysis created two
groups of respondents, the respondents who have a high
level of economic status (level A and B) and respondents
with high medium and low economic status (level C1, C2,
D and E).
In the table it can be seen that respondents in the high-
level economic status tend to have a degree of
independence or autonomy in determining the opinions or
decisions that are high by respondents at the middle and
lower economic status. The level of agreement among
Variable Effect of Intention Total Effect
Direct Indirect
Attitudes toward behavioural 0.6340 0.0000 0.6340
Subjective norm -0.4320 0.0000 -0.4320
Confidence 0.0000 0.0032 0.3320
Socioeconomic level 0.2850 0.0000 0.2850
The power factor 0.2020 0.0000 0.2020
Perceived Risks 0.1850 0.0000 0.1850

respondent on the high level of economic motivation
variable comply substantially lower (44.8%) compared
with the group of respondent medium and low economic
level (66.6%). On the other hand, the level of agreement
of respondents on the high level of economic factors
attitude toward the behaviour (behavioural beliefs (79%)
and evaluation of the consequences (91.7%) and
behavioural control (control beliefs (94.4%) and power
factor control (94.4%) appear higher than the group of
respondents in the middle and lower economic level. It is
clear that the respondents in the higher economic status
into account the personal opinions of attitude and
personality they have and come from the perception of
being digested through a process to determine the
respondents have confidence in the decision, in this case
whether to use natural gas or not.
As has been reviewed that respondents in the high
economic level are less likely to have the motivation to
follow the views of others in determining the decision to
use natural gas. This is supported from the facts on the
ground about the agreement of respondents was quite
low in receiving influence from parents / husband / wife
(49.2%), advice from friends (49.2%) and advice from TV,
radio and magazines (47.6%). Yet another interesting
fact is seen when a high economic level respondents
prefer to hear an appeal from the government (84.5%)
and the advice of most people (61.9%). This suggests
that this group of respondents will use the cognitive role
in making decisions, i.e., following the government's
appeal as a driver program or policy makers and decided
to digest the information that is circulating in the
community.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of statistical tests on the parameters
(Gamma) can be concluded that there is a positive and
significant effect of Attitudes Toward Behavioural latent
variables, latent variable Power Factor Control and
Perceived Risk of latent variables to latent variable
intention to use natural gas. But the attitude toward the
behaviour latent variables showed the greatest influence
in decision-making respondents in the use of natural gas.
In addition there is a positive and significant effect of the
latent variables to the latent variables Confidence Power
Factor Control, and a positive and significant effect of the
latent variables Belief latent variable Perceived Risk. But
found a negative and significant effect of the latent
variables to the latent variables subjective norm intention
using natural gas.
Demographic factors such as economic status, age,
gender, and level of education is also a significant factor
in influencing the decision to use the respondent or not
using natural gas. Respondents to the economic status of
the general attitude to own independence to make
decisions in the use of natural gas, while respondents in
Tubagus et al 251

the middle and lower economic status is still worrying the
risk that may occur when using natural gas. The appeal
of the government is still giving a big contribution in the
decision influencing respondents. Generally a young age
respondents is a negative response to the program, while
concerns still perceived by respondents with full-time
jobs. Male respondents also had the same concerns as
compared to female respondents. Level of education also
affects the attitudes of respondents, mainly related to the
low or the high gas prices and concerns about emerging
risks.

SUGGESTION

As for suggestions that are needed to follow up this study
are:
1. Deeper study in relation to the role of the
subjective factor of the norm of others in giving effect to
the public in relation to the use of natural gas or
Developing Gas City concept. It is necessary to increase
the positive perception and true to natural gas.
2. Indonesia has several regions that contain
natural gas such as Senkang, Bontang, Prabumulih and
several other cities; especially the character and
typography are different so it will be interesting to study
the same research.

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Quality assurance through student assessment in Open
and Distance Learning (ODL): Case study of The
Zimbabwe Open University (ZOU).

Ignatius Isaac Dambudzo

Zimbabwe Open University, PO Box MP1119, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe
Email: idambudzo@yahoo.co.uk


The assessment of students is one of the most important elements of any education system including
higher education (HE). A well designed testing system can spearhead educational improvement, while a
poor one can sabotage the most dedicated efforts to improve instructional quality. Testing can
therefore be used as a powerful and cost effective tool to improve educational quality. However, there
has been very little evaluation studies of the methods and effectiveness of the assessment methods
used. Informal reports by students and staff alike appear to suggest that there are variations in both
practices and principles on which assessments are based. They vary widely between faculties,
departments, individual courses within the same departments, and between individual members of the
academic staff within institutions. The report focuses on quality assurance through assessment. It
covers quality assurance in the wider sense of the Criteria 10: Student Assessment; and Area: 2.4
Student assessment practices framework as outlined by Zimbabwe Council for Higher Education
(ZIMCHE). The study identified key issues for quality assurance through assessment such as
comparability, consistency and accountability, the importance of transparency and the need to properly
involve staff and students in the assessment process. The study managed to come up with generic
assessment principles that might underpin quality assurance and different practices. In addition quality
assurance of credit transfer between institutions and even faculties, assessment of problem-based and
work-based learning and accreditation of prior learning also emerged. The report concluded that quality
assurance of assessment in HE and ODL in particular, was a critical issue that required close
monitoring and evaluation in order to continue to improve and ensure credibility of qualifications,
transparency and comparability and that regular monitoring should include all the stages of the
assessment process and involve students in order to take cognizance of their experience of learning
and assessment. It is hoped that the paper would stimulate debate on practical issues of assessment
and the ushering in of continuous improvement of both assessment and learning for quality products.
Future studies could focus on comparability of assessment practices between institutions to determine
and to share information and experiences on good practices for the benefit of both students and staff.

Keywords: assessment, accreditation, comparability, education, consistency, qualifications, quality assurance,
reliability.

INTRODUCTION

The assessment of students is one of the most important elements of any education system including higher


education (HE). A well designed testing system can
spearhead educational improvement, while a poor one
can sabotage the most dedicated efforts to improve
instructional quality. Testing can therefore be used as a
powerful and cost effective tool to improve educational
quality. However, there has been very little evaluation
studies of the methods and effectiveness of the
assessment methods used. Informal reports by students
and staff alike appear to suggest that there are variations
in both practices and principles on which assessments
are based. They vary widely between faculties,
departments, individual courses within the same
departments, and between individual members of the
academic staff within institutions. The report focuses on
quality assurance through assessment. It covers quality
assurance in the wider sense of the Criteria 10: Student
Assessment; and Area: 2.4 Student assessment
practices framework as outlined by Zimbabwe Council for
Higher Education (ZIMCHE). The study identified key
issues for quality assurance through assessment such as
comparability, consistency and accountability, the
importance of transparency and the need to properly
involve staff and students in the assessment process.
The study managed to come up with generic assessment
principles that might underpin quality assurance and
different practices. In addition quality assurance of credit
transfer between institutions and even faculties,
assessment of problem-based and work-based learning
and accreditation of prior learning also emerged. The
report concluded that quality assurance of assessment in
HE and ODL in particular, was a critical issue that
required close monitoring and evaluation in order to
continue to improve and ensure credibility of
qualifications, transparency and comparability, transfer
for which regular monitoring should include all the stages
of the assessment process and involve students in order
to take cognizance of their experience of learning and
assessment. It is hoped that the paper will stimulate
debate on practical issues of assessment and the
ushering in of continuous improvement of both
assessment, learning for quality products and the
possibility of evolving a Framework for Qualifications of
the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
area. Future studies could focus on comparability of
assessment practices between institutions to determine,
and to share information and experiences on good
practices for the benefit of both students and staff.
Universities in developing countries have followed their
counterparts in the developed world by adopting quality
assurance to improve quality of their activities. Though
conditions of its success are not present, it is
nevertheless important to pursue quality assurance
because it demonstrates how different activities are
related to one another to achieve the same

goal and how quality can be improved using an
integrated approach. Quality assurance provides
direction to the work of the traditional university
committee system. There is however the need to modify
it to suit local conditions. (Lim, 201). Mincer cited by Lim
(2001) argues that quality assurance as implemented in
the developed countries has not yielded the desired
results because of its concentration on processes than
results among other things. This has tended to divert
institutions from their core activities. In view of the
importance of assessment, ZIMCHE has provided
comprehensive guidelines for institutions to ensure
comparable standards in students assessment. The
beneficiaries of the guidelines are the students whose
qualifications would be recognized throughout the country
and the world as well. The guidelines cover the following:
Institutional capacity: Accreditation and
registration with ZIMCHE; appropriately qualified staff;
learning materials appropriate for the needs, knowledge
and experience of the students.
Programme provisions: Sufficient copies of
modules that cover the content of each course available
at the beginning of the semester.
Student assessment practices: internal and
external assessment complemented with internal and
external moderation. (ZIMCHE, 2009)

Literature Review

According to ZIMCHE (2009) assessment is an integral
part of the teaching and learning process and is used to
provide feedback to inform tutoring and learning and to
improve the curriculum. Learning achievements of
students are internally assessed and moderated by staffs
who supervise the programme and students are given
feedback. Procedures are in place and are strictly
followed to receive record, process and turn around
assignments within the time frame that allows students to
benefit from feedback before submitting further
assignments. Assessment can make or break all that
goes on in learning and teaching. The validity and
reliability of assessment are vital qualities that should be
fulfilled by any assessment process. Assessment is a
system hence no part should be faulty for effectiveness
and efficiency of the process. Assessment should be
designed to suit different programmes and countries as
well. It is however, important that principles under which
specific practices are designed, should be shared, fair
and that principles and practices are open to scrutiny
(transparent). These include externality in assessment,
frequency of students assessment, plagiarism, student
evaluation and feedback, distinguishing the roles
between supervisor (in research project) and assessors,

complaints handling, independent committees for
reviewing appeal cases against a mark and regular
feedback from employers. (Crozier and Vries, 2008).
Different institutions would have different arrangements
and so are departments. These may need to be brought
into line within the same institution. Ehlers (2009) in a
study focusing on understanding quality culture in
education argued that quality was about accreditation
and the process which enabled individuals to
continuously improve their educational practice. Atkins
(1993) in a study of assessment issues in HE pointed out
that any attempt to improve assessment involved focus
on individual lecturers, departments and institutional
managers. He went on to point out that separating
assessment of theory from assessment of competence,
capability and performance was a big challenge for all
those involved in assessment.
Crozier and Vries (2008) reported on the quality
assurance of student assessment in higher education at
the conclusion of an international working group
conference. They identified key priorities for quality
assurance of student assessment as follows:
Balance between comparability, consistency and
accountability.
Importance of transparency
Proper involvement of staff and students.
In addition principles underpinning quality assurance
evolved from the discussion. These included:
Quality assurance of credit transfer between
institutions
Assessment of problem-based and work-based
learning.
The views were echoed by Frantz (2010) in her
Outcomes Assessment Model when she said that
assessment policies needed to be faculty driven,
meaningful and an integral part of teaching and learning
which involved peer reviews.
The paper is a preliminary contribution to more
widespread discussion across the country (ZIMBABWE)
and SADC Region. It is hoped that the paper will
stimulate debate on the fundamentals and its quality
assurance, adding to greater confidence in a system of
comparable degrees in the country in line with ZIMCHE
aims and objectives and the SADC Qualifications
Framework.
Law (2010) in a study of quality assurance in post
secondary education which focused on student
experience based on literature review reported that a
study such as this shed light on how quality assurance
practices can be improved. Law used methodology which
reviewed some of the approaches to addressing quality
issue from students evaluations of teaching
effectiveness, students performance experiences and
total experiences, students satisfaction and service
Ignatius 255

quality. The results revealed that students surveys that
used self-reports inventories/questionnaires with
established reliabilities, validity and diagnostic power had
the potential to transform the external and internal
quality-monitoring mechanisms currently practised in post
secondary education thereby shift the focus of QA to
enhancement led view. It was therefore vital to examine
quality assurance strategies for students assessment
employed by the ZOU.

Purpose of the Study

Owing to the complexity of education and demands for
quality, comparability and accountability, customer and
stakeholder satisfaction, the paper sought to examine
assessment practices in the ZOU and how far they
complied with ZIMCHE specifications or guidelines as
quality benchmarks. It was hoped that such knowledge
would help promote quality in student assessment.

OBJECTIVES

To find out how ZOU as an ODL institution implemented
quality assurance through student assessment.
To identify how assessment quality can be upheld
through students assessment.
To demonstrate how the CIPP model can help
understanding of the concept of assessment as a
process.

Significance of the study

The outcome of the study would help improve data
collection instruments in order to tap into students
experiences for more valid and reliable assessment
practices. This would also make quality assurance
activities of educational institutions research informed,
and evidence based and enhancement led. (Law, 2010).
Results would also reveal the gap between expectations
and current practices thereby inform intervention
measures for improvement by individuals, departments
and faculties. Results would also indicate the extent to
which qualifications can be made comparable in the
country and initiate debate on a regional Qualifications
framework.
The drive towards quality assessment in ODL: ZIMCHE
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: Area 2.4 of the Criteria
for Accreditation of Open and Distance Learning,
ZIMCHE outlines specifications for student assessment
practices. These were meant to ensure that every
programme was using effective internal and external


assessment practices that included internal and external
moderation. These are summarised below.
Assessment to be integrated with teaching and
learning.
Used to provide feedback to inform tutoring and
learning to improve the curriculum.
Internal assessment of students learning
moderated by staff supervising the programme.
Students to be given feedback.
Procedures put in place and strictly adhered to
receive, record, process and return assignments in order
for students to benefit students before they submit the
next assignment.
Inclusion of internal/external assessment.
The final assessment should be assessed externally by
an appointed, qualified and experienced academic in the
area before the award is made. Qualifications of external
examiner should be at least at par with those being
examined e.g. External examiner for a Masters Degree
programme must have at least a Masters Degree.
External examiners must be approved by the Senate, and
changed regularly. (ZIMCHE, 2009).

External Moderation

Give external examiners enough information about their
work.
For final examination, external examiner should mark
fully 10% of the scripts and do random checks of at least
20%.
External examiners reports should be given to the
programme coordinator and department chairperson.
Problems should be discussed with lecturer(s).
Programme coordinator to monitor implementation of
agreed improvements. External examiner approves the
final mark lists.

Reliability of assessment

External examiner should make comments on validity of
assessment instruments, quality of students performance
and standards of students attainment, reliability of
marking process and compliance with institutional
arrangements.
Consistency between internal and external assessors is
always desirable.
One integrated assessment procedure for each
qualification or programme that is fit for purpose.
Recognition of prior learning following a reliable and
consistent procedure should be the norm.

Rigour and security

Regulations for dealing with breaches are in place. Such
information should be given to all students in full
emphasising rights and responsibilities.

Appeals procedures

Guidelines for marking, grading results, progression,
credit allocation should be very clear.

METHODOLOGY

This was a qualitative study in which document analysis
was the method. The following documents were
analysed: ZIMCHE CR1/3(Guidelines for Student
Assessment for Higher Education), Examiners reports for
may/June 2012 examinations for ZOU students in the
Department of Education Studies, Quality Assurance
Regional Reports and Faculty Procedures (faculty of Arts
and Education). Documents were analysed to obtain
information on procedures, assessment practices, quality
assurance observations practices and expectations and
students experiences of learning and assessment. Key
issues were identified and documented. Process
diagrams were drawn to demonstrate the detailed nature
of assessment procedures and their intricacies. Results
were presented to show what ZOU was doing and the
extent to which they complied with the regulatory
authoritys requirements. Examples of students
experiences of assessment from examiners reports were
highlighted to show the link between learning, teaching
and assessment. Key findings are presented in the
following paragraphs.

RESULTS

What is ZOU doing currently?

At the ZOU, student assessment assumes the Context
Input Process and Product Model (CIPP), (Stufflebeam,
1985). (See figure 1).
The systems approach enables interaction and avoids
implementation of activities individually, and improves
monitoring, measurement, control and greater
transparency. (Gabi, 2012).

Ignatius 257

Inputs

Quality Modules learning materials and sources
of data for item (questions) development.
Highly qualified and experienced academic staff
involved in the item development process.
Item developers are trained in setting,
moderation, marking, standardisation, grading and
accrediting of scripts, marking guides and results.
Students admitted following a well documented
admissions procedure ensuring appropriately qualified
students find their way into the university and appropriate
programme.
Tutorials managed by a team of dedicated and
trained tutors but results of student surveys on tutors
performance have not been circulated early enough to
determine their possible influence on students
performance in examinations.
Secure and quality printing press.
Strong room for storage
Invigilators who are well trained. Reports from
quality assurance confirm good practice.
Quality assured (internally and externally
moderated) examination question papers. This is being
done but reports lack in detail to provide guidance on
improvement on different aspects of assessment
Dedicated support staff
ICT services that process registration and results
Knowledgeable and experienced management
Evaluation reports prepared for every course and
programme at the end of every exam session. These are
not always distributed to the tutors as feedback for their
interaction with students.

Processes

Assessment involves several processes which translate
inputs into products for our customers. The processes
include (See Figure 2):
Curriculum Development: needs assessment is
carried out before introducing a programme to ensure
programmes offered met felt needs of the prospective
customers (students);
Development of Regulations to guide
implementation of the all programmes;
Identification and Recruitment of well qualified
module writers (knowledgeable and experienced in the
field) for each course;
Accreditation of programme regulations after
thorough scrutiny by Departmental and Faculty, Senate
Board meetings and ZIMCHE.
Development of Learning Materials (Modules) in
accordance with the Faculty Regulations.

Figure 1 the Assessment Process at ZOU
(Source: Ignatius Isaac Dambudzo, 2012)
INPUT
Regulations
Registration of
Students
Learning materials
Students
Course and Item
Developers
PROCESS
Course and Item
Development
Tuition
Exam Taking
Standardisation
Marking and
Moderation
Scaling and Grading
OUTPUT
Results
Certification
Accredited Graduates
Reports
Qualifications
Figure 2 (Source: Ignatius Isaac Dambudzo, 2012)


Quality Assurance of modules through content
reviewing, editing, and quality assurance by Quality
Assurance Unit and ZIMCHE.
Printing and Distribution of modules to all regions
for students.
Tutorials and Support of students by qualified
tutors. Their monitoring needed to be thorough for the
benefit of students.
Continuous Assessment (assignments, seminar
presentations and discussions) to prepare students for
summative assessment. Moderation of these varied from
Department to Department though faculty procedures
were quite explicit.
Student Advisory Services and monitoring of
progress to enhance success rate.
The above arrangements ensure that activities prior to
writing the examinations complied with ZIMCHE
requirements and promoted quality learning and
assessment. (ZIMCHE, 2009).

Examination Processes (See Figure 3)

Question Paper Development by experienced
and qualified personnel for every course/subject (Item
development, moderation, proof reading).
Storage and then Printing under security
Writing of Examinations under the supervision of
experienced and qualified invigilators.
Preparation of Marking Guides for every course
(assignments and examinations) for more objective
marking.
Moderation of marked scripts and scaling.
Grading of marks using a pre-determined scale
for comparability from year to year.
Quality Assurance (QA) of marks by
Departmental and Faculty Boards of Examiners.
Final Quality Assurance by the Senate and QA,
and ratification of results.
Publication and Distribution of results by Academic
Registry. This is an area that causes challenges
especially late publication and the lack of a system that
ensures distribution of results to individual students.
Appeals: After publication of results students not
satisfied with their results can appeal and this would be
considered.
Re-marking after appeals.
Consideration by Departmental, Faculty and
Senate Boards before Grading. (ZOU, 2012).
Certification, graduation and accreditation of
graduates for employment were the final processes.

DISCUSSION

Output

Feedback from students scripts: Performance, question
by question and overall reports provide evidence about
quality of question, popularity, relevance of topics and
how well a topic was taught or how well a module
articulated the concept apart from students preparation.
On the other hand above average performance could
reflect the opposite. Such information was vital in
preparing future candidates, modules and questions. This
is evidence from students feedback without resorting to
self-reports in the form of students surveys. In this study
students surveys could not be taken because it was
vacation time. It is however, important that students
surveys be conducted to supplement evidence from
scripts. Such evidence provided detailed information
about students learning, teaching and assessment
experiences. This would help future practices to improve
the quality of the assessment process, were consistent
with those of Crozier and de Vries (2008) and Frantz
(2010) on quality assurance and outcomes assessment
respectively. Examples from examiners about students

Figure 3 (Source: Ignatius Isaac Dambudzo, 2012)

experience of the assessment process are cited below:
Popular Question: A very popular question attempted
by all except one candidate. It was the highest scoring
question with marks ranging from 53% to 87%, one
examiner remarked in a report on one of the questions.
Unpopular Question: Very few candidates answered
the question. Those who did, scored low marks because
the module was unavailable, a few got the module at the
eleventh hour, an examiner commented citing possible
reason why the question was unpopular and performance
very low. The reason cited shows the link between
availability of learning materials and students
performance in this instance. Results agreed with Atkins
(1993); (ZOU, 2012) and ZIMCHE (2012) on the link
between teaching and learning in assessment.
Alternatively failure to answer questions could have
been due to poor tutorial experience or unclear modules
or the lack of modules in agreement with ZIMCHE (2009)
and Lim (2001). For example, an examiner cited
students failure to explain the role of water and roughage
in the body. The examiner expected this to be common
knowledge but it did not appear to be. Later poor
performance was attributed to the unavailability of the
relevant course module. Module 320 was not available
leading students using knowledge from life experience
rather than learning materials. This is an example where
the lack of learning resources can affect students
outcomes negatively hence the link between learning
materials and assessment affecting students
performance and quality of learning experience.
Alternatively, the question can just be difficult. For
example, a rather difficult question, most candidates
avoided the question.(ZOU, 2012).
Not only was question development and module
availability important for valid and reliable assessment
but quality of marking as well. While one marker marked
well, poor addition of marks cost students valuable
marks. Comments such as marked well but poor
addition marred the good work, were made (ZOU, 2012).
Thus, the way students experienced the examination
could be a vital source of feedback on the quality of
assessment even without carrying out student surveys as
reported by Ehlers (20090 and Croziers and de Vries
(2008). Such information can help improve assessment
for future tests. However, students surveys still need to
be conducted to obtain first hand information on students
experience of learning and assessment for more
customer focused interventions for improvement

CONCLUSION

From the above presentation it was clear that ZOU
followed a rigorous process of quality assurance for
Ignatius 259

students assessment. This begins with needs
assessment for proposed programmes, formulation of
regulations to guide assessment and the award of
qualifications, training of module writers and test
developers, use of internal and external moderators for
both question papers and scripts, accreditation of results
by various committees which ensures accountability and
comparability of qualifications. However, more needs to
be done to see if the programmes and qualifications were
comparable with those of conventional institutions to
enable free movement of students between institutions in
the country.
The processes followed by the ZOU were rigorous
enough to ensure quality assessment for credible results
and qualifications. Consequently ODL can boast quality
through assessment of its students.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The ZOU was following a rigorous procedure to ensure
quality assessment. There is need to monitor the
implementation of the laid down procedures for quality
assessment. Thorough planning is needed to ensure the
design of assessment instruments suited the purpose.
Role clarification for supervisors of projects though
implementation may not follow the laid down guidelines
all the time especially for small programmes with only
one tutor.
Committees considering appeal cases cannot always
be regarded as independent since they were the same
that considered the original results. Internal audit and
quality assurance assessors checked on these but sadly
they were not academic members hence their work may
not be very effective. Examiners reports could provide
useful feedback for future improvement of teaching,
learning and assessment hence they must be prepared
seriously and in detail.
Procedures for examinations were available. However,
it was not clear whether these were communicated to the
students all the time. Future studies can look at how best
to monitor implementation of the procedures for
effectiveness.
Further studies can focus on comparability of
qualifications between institutions in the country and ODL
in the SADC Region.
In addition it may be important to survey practices in
the SADC Region in order to learn from others and share
information. From such surveys it may be important to
consider a Regional Qualifications Framework to
enhance the concepts of comparability and credit
transfer. This would further enhance decisions on free
movement of students and personnel in the region to
support economic activities.


On the whole attention should be paid to the following
during any assessment exercise:
Assessment instruments are fit for purpose. What
assessment activities did the department/faculty
undertake? (Identify students outcomes addressed by
questions asked).
What did you discover about the quality of
learning and teaching and assessment in the
programme?
From the discoveries you made in the
assessment, what changes did you implement to
enhance the quality of teaching, learning and assessment
in the programme and course concerned?
Go through the rigorous cycle whenever
developing regulations, learning materials, assessment
instruments, marking and grading.
Reporting on the assessment that has just
passed and find out lessons to be learned for quality and
continuous improvement.
Ensure that qualifications were comparable and
transferable between institutions within the country and
the region.
Always remember that teaching and learning
were integrated in assessment.

REFERENCES

Atkins MJ (provide the names of the other authors) (1993). Assessment
Issues in Higher Education,in ERIC.
Crozier F and de Vries O (2008). Assessment Matters: Quality
Assurance of Student assessment in Higher Education, Report of an
International Working Group.
Ehlers UD (2009). Quality Assurance in Higher Education:
Understanding Quality Culture in Quality Assurance in Education, 17
(4): 343-363.
Frantz S (2010). An Outcomes Assessment Model: A Grassroots
Endeavour Leads to Widespread Faculty Buy-In, Highline
Community College.
Gabi B (2012).Internal Quality Auditing Course, Zimbabwe Open
University, ZQMS-PROC-8.3.
Lim D (2001) Quality Assurance in Higher Education: A study of
Developing countries. (LB2331 D44 2001)
Zimbabwe Council for Higher Education (2009). Guidelines for
Students Assessment Practices Framework.
Zimbabwe Open University (2012). Markers Reports, Department of
Education, Faculty of Arts.
Zimbabwe Open University (2012). Procedure for Control of Non-
Conforming Product, ZQMS-PROC-8.2.2.



Causes of low mathematics achievement in secondary
schools case study newly enrolled students at the
University of Bakht Alruda

Khalafalla Ahmed Mohamed Arabi

Professor of Econometrics, University of Bakht Erruda, Sudan
khalaf_arabi@yahoo.com. Mobile: (+249) 11811733, Fax (+249) 127156425, P.O.Box1311


This research aims to indentify factors that cause low achievement in mathematics in secondary
schools. Data was collected from three sources; newly enrolled Students at the Faculty of Economics
and Administrative Studies of University of Bakht Alruda, mathematics teachers and National
Curriculums Centre in Alduwaim Town. Logistic Regression was used to analyze the data. Teachers
pointed out that factors behind low achievement in mathematics are lack of basic elements of
mathematics; most of mathematics teachers have low work experience, in addition to their insufficient
number, Students showed that gender of mathematics teacher at the third grade of the secondary
school; substance of mathematics curriculum (doze), type of admission, the differences in the
mathematics curriculums between academic and technical schools and its importance for science,
literature, and technical specialization; and finally the number of time the student sat for the exam,
were the main factors. The National Centre views low achievement is a result of government policies of
which restructuring the general education and devote National Centres responsibilities to state and
local authorities.

Keywords: basics, achievement, training, gender, types of admission, policies

INTRODUCTION

The University of Bakht Erruda was established by a
presidential decree in 1996. It comprises faculties of
education, medicine, agriculture, economics and
administrative sciences, and community development.
Mathematics is an important subject taught in many
faculties but it was observed that many students perform
very low in mathematics. Mathematics achievement can
be considered as a measure of success in academic
progress. Despite the importance of mathematics it was
found that many students face difficulties in learning and
teachers suffer in making students understand the
subject. Many factors affect the process of achievement
of which are the substance of the taught subject, set of
drills, teaching methods, and personal characteristics of
the teachers. These factors should be considered
carefully. The salient proof of low mathematics
achievement in Sudan is the adjustments process made
on raw scores of Mathematics in the Sudanese certificate
where the square root of actual scores is taken and
multiplied by 10, for instance 80 was actually 64, 40 was
16 and so on. Another proof was that the ratio of those
obtained less than 40 per cent in Linear Algebra,
Calculus and Descriptive Statistics of the first year
student at the faculty of Economics and Administrative
Sciences increased from 37 per cent to 80 per cent
during the last five years. This drew the attentions; the
quick remedy was to let student attend intensive course
of what they studied in the secondary education. Two

tests were carried before and after the intensive course.
The results showed under achievement in basic
mathematics in the before test where only 36 percent
passed the test. Despite slight improvement in the after
course they still failed to demonstrate any ability to
perform well even in the basic mathematical operations,
This raises many questions concerning the roots of the
problem weather they are the curriculum, types of
admission, state monitoring and evaluation, supervision,
basic education, teachers or else. The aim of this
research is to identify the causes of low mathematics
achievement of newly enrolled students who just
completed the secondary school. The identification will be
according students, teacher and official points of view.

METHODOLOGY

Data is collected by questionnaire from three sources i.e.
newly enrolled students at the Faculty of Economics and
Administrative Sciences of University of Bakht Erruda,
and mathematics teachers and interview of the head of
Mathematics Department at the National Curriculums
Centre in Duwaim town. The samples were composed of
all 358 newly enrolled students, and 45 mathematics
teachers. The student questionnaire contained 13
questions about age, gender, type of school and
specialization, degree of mathematics obtained in the
Sudanese Certificate, state, type of admission, the
importance of mathematics, and sufficiency of taught
mathematics. The teachers questionnaire included
socioeconomic information, training, and appropriateness
of mathematics curriculum, availability mathematics
books, school environment, and causes of low
achievement. Paired pilot sample of 20 students and 5
teachers received questionnaires twice. The
questionnaires were reviewed by specialists. The
reliability was high and the correlation coefficient of the
paired sample was 0.93. Kruskal-Wallis, 2Sample t, and
Binary Logistic Regression were used. In Binary Logistic
Regression models, the dependent variable - y- may take
on only two values. The dependent variable might be a
dummy variable representing the occurrence of an event,
or a choice between two alternatives such as presence or
absence. A simple linear regression of on x is not
appropriate, since among other things, the implied model
of the conditional mean places inappropriate restrictions
on the residuals of the model. Furthermore, the fitted
value of y from a simple linear regression is not restricted
to lie between zero and one. A model with one or more
predictors is fit using an iterative-reweighted least
squares algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood
estimates of the parameters.
Binary logistic regression has also been used to
classify observations into one of two categories, and it
may give fewer classification errors than discriminant
analysis for some cases (Draper 1989).

Literature Review

Education Matters (2004) Forty-one countries, including
Canada and all 30 OECD countries, participated in the
Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)
in 2003. The primary focus of PISA 2003 was on the
mathematics domain, with a secondary focus on reading,
science and problem-solving. Science Results of that
assessment, which became available in December 2004,
showed that Canadian 15-year-olds continue to perform
very well in an international context.
Munzire (2009) measured the efficiency of strategy of
solving mathematic problems in teaching numbers for
pupils and its impact on promoting the skills of brain
calculation. She used independent sample t test. She
fixed some factors as social and economic level by taking
deterministic sample. She found significant differences
between the control and experimental groups in the
Sultanate of Oman.
Alkarsh (2009) studied the third grade of secondary
education by dividing them into three categories
according to cumulative average. He found significant
difference in the achievement of learning geometry
among the three group due to lack of concern, time spent
in learning, objects used in teaching, intensive review,
and the role of the teacher.
Fifteen Arab countries including Qatar joined the tests
Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), the
results of which were released by the International
Association for the Evaluation of Educational
Achievement in (December 2008).TIMSS is one of the
worlds most influential global assessments of student
achievement in math and science. The report shows that
Qatars average proficiencies in mathematics and
science rank among the lowest of participating countries.
A majority of Qatars students are classified at proficiency
level one (lowest level). At the Eighth Grade level, higher
levels of parental education and the presence of books,
computers and Internet access in the home were
associated with higher mathematics and science
achievements. Achievement was highest among
students who attended schools that reported few
attendance problems, few shortages or inadequate
resources. There was a positive association between
achievement and students perception of being safe in
school. At both the Fourth and Eighth Grade levels,
achievement was highest when principals and teachers
had a positive view of the school climate, including high
levels of teacher job satisfaction, high expectations for
student achievement and parental support.
Veli (2008) examined how geometric concepts are
presented in the Turkish elementary mathematics
curriculum and the textbooks in terms of sizes and
orientations. He showed that the presentation of the
geometric shapes and concepts in both curriculum and
textbooks was not systematically handled. It seems that a
more systematic approach could be applied in designing
Arabi 263

Table 1 Percentage of Students got less 40 Scores

Subject 6 / 2004 8 / 2005 5 / 2005 12 / 2006 12 / 2007 3 / 2008 8 / 2008 3 / 2009
Linear Algebra 51 64 67 72
Calculus 37 80 100 71
Descriptive Statistics 69 70 68

Table 2 Two Sample t for Decrease from Teacher Point of View

Standard Error Standard Deviation Mean Total Type of School
0.11 0.426 1.214 14 Academic
0.24 0.548 1.400 5 Technical

95% CI for mu (0) - mu (1): (-2.86; 0.66)
T-Test mu (0) = mu (1) (vs not =): T = -0.69 P = 0.52 DF = 5

Table 3 Two Sample t for Reasons

Standard Value Standard Deviation Mean Total Type of School
0.12 0.439 1.769 13 Academic
0.20 0.447 1.200 5 Technical

95% CI for mu (0) - mu (1): (-2.86; 0.66)
T-Test mu (0) = mu (1) (vs not =): T = -2.43 P = 0.045 DF = 7

Table 4 Kruskal-Wallis Test on Low Achievement

Standard Value Mean Ranks Median Total Number Type of School
0.66 10.3 1.000 17 Public
-0.66 7.5 1.000 2 Private

H = 0.44 DF = 1 P = 0.507
H = 0.76 DF = 1 P = 0.384 (adjusted for ties)

the activities for geometry learning. Implications for
mathematics education, curriculum design, and textbook
writing were discussed.
Saudi Arabia Participation in tests Trends in
Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS 2007) showed
that parents educational level, owning of computer,
homework, self confidence, class size, safety feeling
affect students achievement in mathematics.
Alhirbawi (2004) studies the effect of teaching methods
on the fourth grade and their attitudes toward
mathematics. She divided the sample into three groups
and used One Way Analysis of Variance and Dunkan to
find significant difference between the third group and the
two other groups.
Faiz (2003) compared two groups of students based on
the use of conventional methods and computer in the
fourth grade of basic education in learning mathematics.
He found significant difference between the two groups
so he recommended the use of computers.
Aldosarry (2002) evaluated mathematic curriculum to
identify the reasons of low achievements. They proved a
significant low achievement among first grade students of
the secondary education due to number of subjects,
intensity, psychological changes, less memorization, and
wrong perception about the difficulty of mathematics and
lack of parents follow-up.
Murad (2004) drew a sample of 367 female students
from the first grade of secondary education in Mecca of
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 45 mathematics teachers, and
education guidance. She recommended true intent, hard
working, and preparation of the suff in sufficient time,
appropriateness of questions, collective work and positive
participation in decision making.
Farouq (2000) investigated the readability of the fifth
grade mathematics textbook in Jordan. The study
concluded that the level of the readability was generally
very low and it increases when the number of the omitted
words decreases. The researchers concluded that there
were significant differences between the three tests C1,
C2, C3 in the students achievement in the test itself.
They also concluded that there were significant
differences between the males and females in the
students achievement in the test itself.
Seple (1978) used to and analysis of variance was
used to compare over achiever, achiever and low
achiever in mathematics of a sample of 246 of 11 and 12
year old children. It was hypothesized that the measure
of mathematics specific anxiety would differentiate the
under achiever group from the other two groups strongly
than the measure of general test of anxiety. The results
confirmed the hypothesis.
Despite the importance of mathematics it is considered
a burden to students and teachers. Factors that can have
impact on achievement are lack of students to basic
elements of mathematics, lack of concern; mathematics
is not a necessity, lack of training, methods of teaching,

and the preference of memorization to understanding
(Alkarsh 2009).
The current government declared in 1990 set of
policies to revolutionize the education by restructuring the
general education by merging the elementary education
(six years) and general secondary (three years) to be
basic education of (8 years) followed by three years in
secondary education and then increased the number
admitted to universities by establishing Public
Universities at each of the 25 states. Before 1990 the
National Curriculum Centre (NCC) was responsible of
producing curriculum to general education, training of
teachers, follow-up of setting curriculums, and providing
guidance services. After 1990 the NCC was responsible
only for the production of curriculums of general
education, the role of monitoring and evaluation was
transferred to the states, and the teacher training to
localities. Mathematics in basic education is divided into
three circles: (first third grade), (fourth sixth grade),
(seventh and eighth grade). Another major change
(Mahamood 2009) was to designate one teacher for first
circle pupils aiming to be engaged with them the whole
day and change the mode of teaching according to
attitudes of pupils i.e. to teach sometimes, send the
pupils to the playground, and develop art skills and so on.
Those teachers should have special training. But the
actual practice was that those teachers concentrated on
teaching and nothing else. The designation of one
teacher for three consecutive years and many teachers
leave psychological effects on the pupils besides the
possibility of error accumulation.

Empirical Evidence

Equality of achievement in mathematics in Academic and
Technical Schools is accepted since P is greater than
0.05.
The null hypothesis of equality between Achievement
of Academic School means and Private is rejected. The
main causes of low achievement in mathematics from
teacher point of view are lack of basics of mathematics in
the basic education.
The null hypothesis of equality of achievement
decrease of private and public schools is accepted.

Binary Logistic Regression from Teachers Point of
View

Link Function: Logit
Response Information
Variable Value Count
Decrease 2 5 (Event)
1 14
Total 19
The number 1 means there is a low achievement in mathematics 2
means none.

The null hypothesis that the estimated coefficient of
Teachers number (Teacher), work experience
(Experience) and the constant are drawn from population
with zero coefficients is rejected.
Log-Likelihood = -6.276
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 9.348; DF = 2; P-
Value = 0.009

The null hypothesis that all estimated coefficients are
drawn form a population with zero coefficients is rejected.

Binary Logistic Regression from Student Point of
View

The estimated coefficients of the explanatory variables:
specialization of students (classify), type of admission i.e.
general, state, private (type),; gender of teacher in the
third grade (third), sufficiency of mathematics (doze) ,
number of time sat for Exam (number), and the constant
are significantly different from zero. The odd ration of all
estimated coefficients are greater than 1 except the type
of admission which indicate that the low level of
admission (general) is related to the highest level of
those got high scores in mathematics (dependent
variables),
Log-Likelihood = -194.846
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 32.190; DF = 5; P-
Value = 0.000
The null hypothesis above is rejected since the P-Value
is less than 0.05.

DISCUSSION

Lack of differences among all types of schools in terms of
existence of low achievement in mathematic, i.e. between
public and private schools on the one hand, and the
academic and technical schools on the other hand
indicate that there are real causes behind this matter.
The most significant causes of low achievement as is
viewed by teachers are that: students lack basic
elements of mathematics since the basic education;
insufficient number of mathematics teachers due to
attraction of qualified mathematic teacher by the schools
in the capital and big cities where private schools can pay
more than the public and failure of local authorities to
employ sufficient number of teachers; low work
experience of mathematic teachers. Since the odd ratio
showed in the results above is greater than one this
means that whenever the number of teachers becomes
low, a decrease in achievement is more likely. The
negative relationship between work experience and low
achievement is acceptable which means an increase in
Arabi 265

Logistic Regression Table
Odds 95% CI
Predictor Coef StDev Z P Ratio Lower Upper
Constant -5.877 3.363 -1.75 0.081
Teacher 8.647 5.005 1.73 0.084 5690.99 0.31 1.04E+08
Experience -0.8764 0.5338 -1.64 0.101 0.42 0.15 1.19

Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method Chi-Square DF P
Pearson 2.825 8 0.945
Deviance 3.188 8 0.922
Hosmer-Lemeshow 2.825 8 0.945

All tests proof the goodness of fit since the probabilities attached are less than 0.05.

Measures of Association
(Between the Response Variable and Predicted Probabilities)
Pairs Number Percent Summary Measures
Concordant 61 87.1% Somers' D 0.80
Discordant 5 7.1% Goodman-Kruskal Gamma 0.85
Ties 4 5.7% Kendall's Tau-a 0.33
Total 70 100.0%

87.1 is the percentage of concordant pairs response variable and predicted probabilities.

Link Function: Logit

Response Information

Variable Value Count
degree1 1 109 (Event)
0 225
Total 334
334 cases were used
24 cases contained missing values
The number 0 indicates low achievement (less than 40 scores), and 1 (40 and above).

Logistic Regression Table
Odds 95% CI
Predictor Coef StDev Z P Ratio Lower Upper
Constant -2.3240 0.8828 -2.63 0.008
Classify 0.7775 0.3583 2.17 0.030 2.18 1.08 4.39
Type -0.6480 0.1705 -3.80 0.000 0.52 0.37 0.73
Third 0.5167 0.2414 2.14 0.032 1.68 1.04 2.69
Doze 0.5147 0.2861 1.80 0.072 1.67 0.95 2.93
Number 0.3446 0.1930 1.79 0.074 1.41 0.97 2.06

Goodness-of-Fit Tests

Method Chi-Square DF P
Pearson 59.048 63 0.618
Deviance 69.708 63 0.262
Hosmer-Lemeshow 8.938 6 0.177

All tests assure the goodness of fit since the attached probability is less than 0.05.

work experience leads to a decrease in low achievement.
Causes from students point of view are: different
course contents in academic and technical schools which
in turn treat mathematics as unessential subject; state
admission that offers allowance of 5% to secondary
school students from the same state of the university
which to some extent discourage them to study hard;
gender of mathematics teacher specifically at the third
grade affects very much achievement since the records
show that number of female teachers absentees is larger

Measures of Association

(Between the Response Variable and Predicted Probabilities)
Pairs Number Percent Summary Measures
Concordant 15924 64.9% Somers' D 0.35
Discordant 7218 29.4% Goodman-Kruskal Gamma 0.38
Ties 1383 5.6% Kendall's Tau-a 0.16
Total 24525 100.0%

The ratio of concordant pair is 64.9 per cent.

than that of males; incompletion mathematics curriculum;
substance (doze) of mathematics taught to student in
basic (primary) and secondary schools is relatively low;
lack of paying attention to solving drills and home works;
and finally the number of time sitting for the exams
makes the difference. The odd ratios are greater than
one except for type of school which means that whenever
the number of teachers becomes low, a decrease in
achievement is more likely. The negative relationship
between type of school and low achievement is
reasonable which means low achievement is more of
students in private admission followed state admission
and less in the general.
The official point of view represented by the NCC is
that the adopted policies towards revolutionizing and
restructuring general education resulted in a loss of one
year; teachers of intermediate schools were given the
chance to teach at the Secondary level without proper
training; in addition to the failure of local and state
authorities to handle well in the newly assigned
responsibilities. Despite fewer Changes in mathematics
curriculums in primary and basic education, insufficient
teachers training, and disparity between the setting of
curriculum and monitoring and evaluation led to low
achievement.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The aim of this research was to identify the causes of low
achievement in mathematics in General education. A
sample of 357 of newly enrolled students at the Faculty of
Economics and Administrative Sciences of the Bakht
Erruda University was drawn besides 45 mathematics
teachers. The main causes of low achievement from the
specialists point of view were low number of teacher and
lack of experience since the qualified teachers are
attracted by the private schools in the capital town. The
causes from the students point of view were insufficient
doze due to incomplete curriculum, lack of interest in
solving drills, differences in teaching between pubic and
private schools, gender of mathematic teachers female
teachers have special circumstances, and the number of
time sitting for Sudanese Certificate. It is recommended
to recruit sufficient numbers of teachers, intensify
training, reunify the processes of curriculum setting,
teachers training, and monitoring and evaluation under
the authority of NCC, eliminate the differences between
public, and private schools in one hand and academic
and technical education on the other hand, encourage
students to follow appropriate ways of studying, concern
more about curriculum completion and solving the
attached drills, and to ensure the importance of
mathematics in all types of schools.

REFERENCES

Aldossari Mubarak Abdalhadi and Aletaibi AA (2002). Weakness of
Mathematic Achievement of the First Grade of Secondary Education
East Zone KSA (in Arabic)
Alhirbawi Khawala Mustafa Ali (2004). The Effect of Learning Methods
on Achievement of Secondary Education Students and their Attitudes
toward Mathematics Unpublished PhD University of Bagdad
Alkarsh Ahmed Muhammad (1999). Studies on Curriculum and
Teaching Methods Mathematics Entrance to Prosperity Egyptian
Society of Curriculum and Teaching Methods Faculty of Education
Ain Sham University (in Arabic)
Almunzire (2009). Effect of Problem Solving in Teaching Mathematics
on Development of Skill of First Grade Pupils, Sultanate of Oman
Arab Centre for Research and Studies (in Arabic)
Draper NR and Smith H (1981). Applied Regression Analysis, Second
Edition, John Wiley and Sons, Inc
Faiz Noor (2003). The Impact of Computer in Teaching Mathematics
on Achievement of the Basic Education Fourth Grade of Elain UAE
Unpublished MSc University of Alfashir Sudan (in Arabic)
Farouq Almeqdadi and Mr. Ali Al-Zubi (2000). The Readability of the
Fifth Grade Mathematics Textbooks in Jordan
International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement
in (December 2008) Qatar
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (2007). Participation on International Tests
Public Administration for Education Jeddah (in Arabic)
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Participation in International Tests (2007).
General Directorate of Education Jeddah Province
Mahmood Abdalla (2009). Head Department of Mathematics National
Curriculum Centre (in Arabic)
Muhammad Nivithan Ibrahim (1426h).The impact of the Persons
Opinion of himself on Academic Achievement (in Arabic)
Murad Basma (2004). Decrease of Mathematics Achievement Level of
First Grade of the Secondary Education Faculty of Education Mecca
Unpublished MSc (in Arabic)
Philip Nagy (1996). International Comparisons of Student Achievement
in Mathematics and Science: A Canadian Perspective CANADIAN
JOURNAL OF EDUCATION, 21(4): 396413
Seple AC and Keeling B (1978). Types of Anxiety and Under
Achievement in Mathematics University of New Zealand Heldref
Publication

Arabi 267

Appendix

View Point of Teachers

Dependent Variable: DECREASE
Method: ML - Binary Probit
Date: 02/04/10 Time: 09:19
Sample: 1 19
Included observations: 19
Convergence achieved after 6 iterations
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
EXPERIENCE 0.527328 0.311557 1.692554 0.0905
TEACHER 5.218340 2.948940 1.769565 0.0768
C -6.864750 4.106277 -1.671770 0.0946
Mean dependent var 0.736842 S.D. dependent var 0.452414
S.E. of regression 0.369473 Akaike info criterion 0.966431
Sum squared resid 2.184166 Schwarz criterion 1.115553
Log likelihood -6.181091 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.991668
Restr. log likelihood -10.95035 Avg. log likelihood -0.325321
LR statistic (2 df) 9.538515 McFadden R-squared 0.435535
Probability(LR stat) 0.008487
Obs with Dep=0 5 Total obs 19
Obs with Dep=1 14
H-L Statistic: 1.8866 Prob. Chi-Sq(8) 0.9843
Andrews Statistic: 8.6129 Prob. Chi-Sq(10) 0.5692

Dependent Variable: DECREASE
Date: 02/04/10 Time: 09:19
Sample: 1 19
Prediction Evaluation (success cutoff C = 0.5)
Estimated Equation Constant Probability
Dep=0 Dep=1 Total Dep=0 Dep=1 Total
P(Dep=1)<=C 3 2 5 0 0 0
P(Dep=1)>C 2 12 14 5 14 19
Total 5 14 19 5 14 19
Correct 3 12 15 0 14 14
% Correct 60.00 85.71 78.95 0.00 100.00 73.68
% Incorrect 40.00 14.29 21.05 100.00 0.00 26.32
Total Gain* 60.00 -14.29 5.26
Percent Gain** 60.00 NA 20.00
E(# of Dep=0) 2.87 2.04 4.91 1.32 3.68 5.00
E(# of Dep=1) 2.13 11.96 14.09 3.68 10.32 14.00
Total 5.00 14.00 19.00 5.00 14.00 19.00
Correct 2.87 11.96 14.83 1.32 10.32 11.63
% Correct 57.32 85.42 78.03 26.32 73.68 61.22
% Incorrect 42.68 14.58 21.97 73.68 26.32 38.78
Total Gain* 31.01 11.74 16.81
Percent Gain** 42.08 44.61 43.34
*Change in "% Correct" from default (constant probability) specification
**Percent of incorrect (default) prediction corrected by equation


View Point of Students

Dependent Variable: RR
Date: 02/04/10 Time: 09:22
Sample: 1 358
Excluded observations: 24
Convergence achieved after 4 iterations
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
DOZE 0.322339 0.172952 1.863743 0.0624
THIRD 0.314331 0.143100 2.196580 0.0281
CLASSIFICATION 0.489739 0.216108 2.266183 0.0234
TYPE -0.380553 0.099489 -3.825067 0.0001
C -1.111313 0.496224 -2.239539 0.0251
Mean dependent var 0.326347 S.D. dependent var 0.469580
S.E. of regression 0.452913 Akaike info criterion 1.205553
Sum squared resid 67.48772 Schwarz criterion 1.262606
Log likelihood -196.3274 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.228301
Restr. log likelihood -210.9416 Avg. log likelihood -0.587807
LR statistic (4 df) 29.22840 McFadden R-squared 0.069281
Probability(LR stat) 7.03E-06
Obs with Dep=0 225 Total obs 334
Obs with Dep=1 109
H-L Statistic: 10.7701 Prob. Chi-Sq(8) 0.2151
Andrews Statistic: 12.1238 Prob. Chi-Sq(10) 0.2769

Dependent Variable: RR
Date: 02/04/10 Time: 09:22
Sample: 1 358
Excluded observations: 24
Prediction Evaluation (success cutoff C = 0.5)
P(Dep=1)<=C 211 88 299 225 109 334
P(Dep=1)>C 14 21 35 0 0 0
Total 225 109 334 225 109 334
Correct 211 21 232 225 0 225
% Correct 93.78 19.27 69.46 100.00 0.00 67.37
% Incorrect 6.22 80.73 30.54 0.00 100.00 32.63
Total Gain* -6.22 19.27 2.10
Percent Gain** NA 19.27 6.42
E(# of Dep=0) 157.65 67.35 225.00 151.57 73.43 225.00
E(# of Dep=1) 67.35 41.65 109.00 73.43 35.57 109.00
Total 225.00 109.00 334.00 225.00 109.00 334.00
Correct 157.65 41.65 199.29 151.57 35.57 187.14
% Correct 70.06 38.21 59.67 67.37 32.63 56.03
% Incorrect 29.94 61.79 40.33 32.63 67.37 43.97
Total Gain* 2.70 5.57 3.64
Percent Gain** 8.27 8.27 8.27
*Change in "% Correct" from default (constant probability) specification
**Percent of incorrect (default) prediction corrected by equation

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