Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Understand the difference between how probabilities are computed for discrete and continuous
random variables.
2.
Know how to compute probability values for a continuous uniform probability distribution and be
able to compute the expected value and variance for such a distribution.
3.
Be able to compute probabilities using a normal probability distribution. Understand the role of the
standard normal distribution in this process.
4.
5.
6.
Understand the relationship between the Poisson and exponential probability distributions.
Solutions:
6-1
Chapter 6
1.
a.
f (x)
3
2
1
x
.50
2.
1.0
1.5
2.0
b.
P(x = 1.25) = 0. The probability of any single point is zero since the area under the curve above
any single point is zero.
c.
d.
a.
f (x)
.15
.10
.05
x
0
3.
10
b.
c.
d.
E ( x) =
e.
Var( x) =
20
10 + 20
= 15
2
(20 10) 2
= 8.33
12
a.
6-2
30
40
f (x)
3 / 20
1 / 10
1 / 20
x
110
120
130
Minutes
4.
b.
c.
d.
E ( x) =
120 + 140
= 130 minutes
2
a.
f (x)
1.5
1.0
.5
x
0
5.
b.
c.
P(x .30)
d.
a.
= 1 (.30) = .30
1
for 284.7 x 310.6
f ( x) = 25.9
0 elsewhere
b.
c.
d.
e.
6-3
140
Chapter 6
6.
a.
b.
c.
7.
a.
b.
c.
d.
8.
= 10
70
9.
80
90
100
a.
=5
6-4
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
b.
.6826 since 45 and 55 are within plus or minus 1 standard deviation from the mean of 50.
c.
.9544 since 40 and 60 are within plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean of 50.
10.
-3
a.
.3413
b.
.4332
c.
.4772
d.
.4938
11. a.
.3413
b.
.4332
c.
.4772
d.
.4938
e.
.4987
12. a.
.2967
b.
.4418
c.
d.
e.
f.
13. a.
b.
c.
14. a.
-2
-1
+1
+2
+3
Using the table of areas for the standard normal probability distribution, the area of .4750
corresponds to z = 1.96.
6-5
Chapter 6
b.
c.
Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .1314 = .3686. This provides z = 1.12.
d.
Look in the table for an area of .6700 - .5000 = .1700. This provides z = .44.
15. a.
Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .2119 = .2881. Since the value we are seeking is below the
mean, the z value must be negative. Thus, for an area of .2881, z = -.80.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Look in the table for an area of .1915. Since the value we are seeking is below the mean, the z
value must be negative. Thus, z = -.50.
16. a.
Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .0100 = .4900. The area value in the table closest to .4900
provides the value z = 2.33.
b.
Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .0250 = .4750. This corresponds to z = 1.96.
c.
Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .0500 = .4500. Since .4500 is exactly halfway between .
4495 (z = 1.64) and .4505 (z = 1.65), we select z = 1.645. However, z = 1.64 or z = 1.65 are
also acceptable answers.
d.
Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .1000 = .4000. The area value in the table closest to .4000
provides the value z = 1.28.
17.
= 527, = 160
a.
z=
700 527
= 1.08
160
z=
100 527
= 2.67
160
450 527
= .48
160
P(450 < x < 700) = P(-.48 < z < 1.08) = .8599 - .3156 = .5443
d.
z=
300 527
= 1.42
160
6-6
= 30 and = 8.2
18.
a.
At x = 40, z =
40 30
= 1.22
8.2
At x = 20, z =
20 30
= 1.22
8.2
A z-value of 1.28 cuts off an area of approximately 10% in the upper tail.
x = 30 + 8.2(1.28) = 40.50
A stock price of $40.50 or higher will put a company in the top 10%
We have = 156.76 and = 138.01
19.
a.
Z =
416 156.76
1.88
138.01
P(x > 5.0) = P(z > 1.88) = 1 - P(z < 1.88) = 1 - .9699 = .0301
The rainfall exceeds 416 mm in 3.01% of the Februarys.
b.
Z =
70 156.76
.63
138.01
P(x < 3.0) = P(z < -.63) = P(z > .63) = 1 - P(z < .63) = 1 - .7357 = .2643
The rainfall is less than 70 mm in 26.43% of the Februarys.
c.
z = 1.28 cuts off approximately .10 in the upper tail of a normal distribution.
x = 156.76 + 1.28(138.01) = 333.413
If it rains 333.413 mm or more, February will be classified as extremely wet.
20.
a.
At x = 10,
z=
10 15.3
= 1.35
3.94
6-7
Chapter 6
At x = 20,
z=
20 15.3
=1.19
3.94
A z-value of .84 cuts off an area of approximately .20 in the upper tail.
x = 15.3 + .84 (3.94) = 18.61
A person must spend 18.61 or more hours logged on to be classified a heavy user.
21.
From the normal probability tables, a z-value of 2.05 cuts off an area of approximately .02 in the
upper tail of the distribution.
x = + z = 100 + 2.05(15) = 130.75
A score of 131 or better should qualify a person for membership in Mensa.
6-8
22.
a.
At 400
z=
400 441.84
.46
90
At 500
z=
500 441.84
.65
90
Must find the z-value that cuts off an area of .20 in the upper tail. Using the normal tables, we find
z = .84 cuts off approximately .20 in the upper tail.
So, x = + z = 441.84 + .84(90) = 517.44
Weekly earnings of $517.44 or above will put a production worker in the top 20%.
c.
At 250, z =
250 441.84
2.13
90
z=
60 80
= 2 Area to left is .5000 - .4772 = .0228
10
At x = 60
z=
60 80
= 2
10
z=
75 80
= .5
10
At x = 75
z=
90 80
=1
10
6-9
Chapter 6
24. a.
x =
s=
xi
= 902.75
n
( xi x ) 2
= 114.185
n 1
800 902.75
.90
114.185
At 1000
z=
1000 902.75
.85
114.185
= 442.54, = 65
25.
a.
z=
400 442.54
= .65
65
z=
300 442.54
= 2.19
65
500 442.54
= .88
65
P(400 < x < 500) = P(-.65 < z < .88) = .8106 - .2578 = .5528
26. a.
= np = 100(.20) = 20
6 - 10
2 = np (1 - p) = 100(.20) (.80) = 16
= 16 = 4
b.
c.
P (23.5 x 24.5)
z=
24.5 20
= +1.13
4
Area = .3708
z=
23.5 20
= +.88
4
Area = .3106
P (17.5 x 22.5)
z=
17.5 20
= .63
4
Area = .2357
z=
22.5 20
= +.63
4
Area = .2357
P (x 15.5)
z=
15.5 20
= 1.13
4
Area = .3708
= np = 200(.60) = 120
2 = np (1 - p) = 200(.60) (.40) = 48
= 48 = 6.93
b.
c.
P (99.5 x 110.5)
z=
99.5 120
= 2.96
6.93
Area = .4985
z=
110 120
= 1.37
6.93
Area = .4147
6 - 11
Chapter 6
d.
P ( x 129.5)
z=
129.5 120
= +1.37 Area = .4147
6.93
28. a.
In answering this part, we assume it is not known how many Democrats and Republicans are in the
group.
= np = 250(.47) = 117.5
2 = np(1-p) = 250(.47)(.53) = 62.275
= 62.275 = 7.89
Half the group is 125 people. We want to find P(x 124.5).
At x = 124.5, z =
124.5 117.5
= .89
7.89
c.
It's a toss up. We expect just as many in favor of the proposal as opposed.
z=
6.5 4.99
= .69
2.18
6 - 12
At x = 5.5,
z=
5.5 4.99
= .23
2.18
z=
3.5 4.99
= .68
2.18
= np = (800)(0.41) = 328
= np(1 p) = (800)(0.41)(0.59) = 13.9111
I would expect 328 to agree that Microsoft is a monopoly.
b.
300.5 328
= 1.98
13.9111
c.
= 13.9111 as in part a.
Find P(x > 450.5)
At x = 450.5
z=
450.5 472
= 1.55
13.9111
6 - 13
Chapter 6
= np = 120(.75) = 90
= np(1 p) = (120)(.75)(.25) = 4.74
The probability at least half the rooms are occupied is the normal probability: P(x 59.5).
At x = 59.5
z=
59.5 90
= 6.43
4.74
b.
z=
80.5 90
= 2.00
4.74
b.
c.
d.
33. a.
P ( x x0 ) = 1 e x0 / 3
b.
c.
d.
e.
6 - 14
34. a.
b.
c.
35. a.
f(x)
.09
.08
.07
.06
.05
.04
.03
.02
.01
x
6
12
18
b.
c.
d.
24
= 1 - (1 - e-30/12)
= .0821
36. a.
b.
c.
37. a.
50 hours
P(x 25) = 1 - e-25/50 = 1 - .6065 = .3935
P(x 100) = 1 - (1 - e-100/50)
= .1353
P(x < 2) = 1 - e-2/2.78 = .5130
b.
c.
6 - 15
Chapter 6
38. a.
If the average number of transactions per year follows the Poisson distribution, the time between
transactions follows the exponential distribution. So,
1
of a year
30
and
1
1
=
= 30
1/ 30
The probability of no transaction during January is the same as the probability of no transaction
during any month: .0821
c.
30 / 24
P x
= 1 .2865 = .7135
= 1 e
24
39. a.
f ( x) = 25
0 elsewhere
b.
c.
d.
6 - 16
40. a.
For a normal distribution, the mean and the median are equal.
= 63,000
b.
Find the z-score that cuts off 10% in the lower tail.
z-score = -1.28
Solving for x,
1.28 = x 63,000
15,000
x = 63,000 - 1.28 (15000) = 43,800
The lower 10% of mortgage debt is $43,800 or less.
c.
x 63, 000
15, 000
= 1 - P(9.85 x 10.15)
P(defect)
c.
Reducing the process standard deviation causes a substantial reduction in the number of defects.
= 80,734
42.
a.
6 - 17
Chapter 6
1.645 =
=
c.
75,422 80,734
75,422 80,734
= 3,229
1.645
At 80,400
z=
80,400 80,734
= .10
3,229
z=
78,410 80,734
= .72
3,229
At 78,410
P (80,400 < x < 78,410) = P (-.72 < z < -.10) = .2642 - .0398 = .2244
c.
= 10,000
43.
a.
= 1500
At x = 12,000
12, 000 10, 000
= 1.33 Area to left is .9082
1500
P(x > 12,000) = 1.0000 - .9082 = .0918
z=
b.
At .95
z = 1.645 =
x 10, 000
1500
95%
10,000
12,468 tubes should be produced.
6 - 18
0.05
12,468
44. a.
At x = 200
z=
200 150
= 2 Area = .4772
25
45. a.
z=
x 126, 681
30, 000
46. a.
At 400,
6 - 19
Chapter 6
z=
400 450
= .500
100
Area to left is .3085
At 500,
z=
500 450
= +.500
100
Area to left is .6915
At 630,
z=
630 450
= 1.80
100
At 480,
z=
480 450
= .30
100
Area to left is .6179
At 75,000
z=
P(x > 75,000) = P(z > 1.14) = 1 - P(z 1.14) = 1 - .8729 = .1271
The probability of a woman receiving a salary in excess of $75,000 is .1271
b.
At 75,000
z=
P(x > 75,000) = P(z > 1.36) = 1 - P(z 1.36) = 1 - .9131 = .0869
The probability of a man receiving a salary in excess of $75,000 is .0869
c.
At x = 50,000
z=
P(x < 50,000) = P(z < -2.43) = 1 - P(z < 2.43) = 1 - .9925 = .0075
The probability of a woman receiving a salary below $50,000 is very small: .0075
d.
The answer to this is the male copywriter salary that cuts off an area of .01 in the upper tail of the
distribution for male copywriters.
Use z = 2.33
6 - 20
= .6
48.
At 2%
z = -2.05
z=
x = 18
2.05 =
18
.6
0.02
=19.23
18
= np = 50 (.75) = 37.5
= np (1 p ) = 50(.75)(.25) = 3.06
At x = 42.5
z=
x 42.5 37.5
=
= 1.63
3.06
At x = 34.5
z=
34.5 37.5
= .98
3.06
At x = 39.5
z=
39.5 37.5
= .65
3.06
6 - 21
Chapter 6
c.
At x = 29.5
29.5 37.5
= 2.61
3.06
z=
= np = 50 (.25) = 12.5
= np (1 p ) = 50(.25)(.75) = 3.06
At x = 29.5
z=
29.5 12.5
= 5.55
3.06
P(z 5.55) 0
Thus, essentially no one who simply guesses will pass the examination.
50. a.
= np = (240)(0.49) = 117.6
Expected number of wins is 117.6
Expected number of
To lose $1000, the player must lose 20 more hands than he wins. With 240 hands in 4 hours, the
player must win 110 or less in order to lose $1000. Use normal approximation to binomial.
= np = (240)(0.49) = 117.6
= 240(.49)(.51) = 7.7444
Find P(x 110.5)
At x = 110.5
z=
110.5 117.6
= .92
7.7444
6 - 22
z=
120.5 117.6
= .37
7.7444
To lose $1500, the player must lose 30 hands more than he wins. This means he wins 105 or fewer
hands.
Find P(x 105.5)
At x = 105.5
z=
105.5 117.6
= 1.56
7.7444
b.
c.
52. a.
b.
f(x) = 7e-7x
c.
d.
12 seconds is .2 minutes
P(x > .2) = 1 - P(x < .2) = 1- [1- e-7(.2)] = e-1.4 = .2466
53. a.
b.
1
e x / 24.7 .0405e .0405 x
24.7
P(x < 30) = 1 - e-.0405(30) = 1 - .2967 = .7033
P(x < 10) = 1 - e-.0405(10) = 1 - .6670 = .3330
P(10 < x < 30) = .7033 - .3330 = .3703
c.
6 - 23
Chapter 6
54. a.
b.
1
= 0.5 therefore = 2 minutes = mean time between telephone calls
c.
d.
6 - 24