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- Untitled
- Survival Analysis for Epidemiologic
- Material Usage_Quantity Variance
- MF_15
- Quantitative Tools in Business_2
- Assignment 3
- 74
- chap_8A.ppt
- 106494785 05 Forecasting the Air Traffic for North East Indian Cities
- kerapuhan cntik
- Chapter 02 W3 L1 L2 Descriptive Statistics 2015 UTP C4.pdf
- tmp82B8
- FRM 2017 Part I - Quicksheet
- Nickel Deposit
- problems in probability mit
- Variance.docx
- The Effect of Bank Consolidation on Bank Credit Risk Reduction
- Math9 S16 Lec1 Basics
- Elements of Statistics - STAT 111 Z1 - Course Syllabus or Other Course-Related Document
- Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Fisher, Ronald a. 2000

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Learning Objectives

1.

Understand the difference between how probabilities are computed for discrete and continuous

random variables.

2.

Know how to compute probability values for a continuous uniform probability distribution and be

able to compute the expected value and variance for such a distribution.

3.

Be able to compute probabilities using a normal probability distribution. Understand the role of the

standard normal distribution in this process.

4.

5.

6.

Understand the relationship between the Poisson and exponential probability distributions.

Solutions:

6-1

Chapter 6

1.

a.

f (x)

3

2

1

x

.50

2.

1.0

1.5

2.0

b.

P(x = 1.25) = 0. The probability of any single point is zero since the area under the curve above

any single point is zero.

c.

d.

a.

f (x)

.15

.10

.05

x

0

3.

10

b.

c.

d.

E ( x) =

e.

Var( x) =

20

10 + 20

= 15

2

(20 10) 2

= 8.33

12

a.

6-2

30

40

f (x)

3 / 20

1 / 10

1 / 20

x

110

120

130

Minutes

4.

b.

c.

d.

E ( x) =

120 + 140

= 130 minutes

2

a.

f (x)

1.5

1.0

.5

x

0

5.

b.

c.

P(x .30)

d.

a.

= 1 (.30) = .30

1

for 284.7 x 310.6

f ( x) = 25.9

0 elsewhere

b.

P(x < 290) = .0386(290 - 284.7) = .2046

c.

d.

e.

P(x 290) = .0386(310.6 - 290) = .7952

6-3

140

Chapter 6

6.

a.

b.

c.

1 44 2 4 43 1 44 2 4 43

.005(8) = .04 .64 = .08(8)

Therefore, the probability is .04 + .64 = .68

7.

a.

The probability your competitor will bid lower than you, and you get the bid, is .40.

b.

c.

d.

The probability of getting the property with a bid of $13,000 is

P(10,000 x < 13,000) = 3000 (1 / 5000) = .60.

The probability of not getting the property with a bid of $13,000 is .40.

The profit you will make if you get the property with a bid of $13,000 is $3000 = $16,000 13,000. So your expected profit with a bid of $13,000 is

EP ($13,000) = .6 ($3000) + .4 (0) = $1800.

If you bid $15,000 the probability of getting the bid is 1, but the profit if you do get the bid is only

$1000 = $16,000 - 15,000. So your expected profit with a bid of $15,000 is

EP ($15,000) = 1 ($1000) + 0 (0) = $1,000.

8.

= 10

70

9.

80

90

100

a.

=5

6-4

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

b.

.6826 since 45 and 55 are within plus or minus 1 standard deviation from the mean of 50.

c.

.9544 since 40 and 60 are within plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean of 50.

10.

-3

a.

.3413

b.

.4332

c.

.4772

d.

.4938

11. a.

.3413

b.

.4332

c.

.4772

d.

.4938

e.

.4987

12. a.

.2967

b.

.4418

c.

d.

e.

.3849 + .5000 = .8849

f.

13. a.

b.

c.

14. a.

-2

-1

+1

+2

+3

from the table of areas for the standard

normal probability distribution. See

Table 1 in Appendix B.

Using the table of areas for the standard normal probability distribution, the area of .4750

corresponds to z = 1.96.

6-5

Chapter 6

b.

c.

Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .1314 = .3686. This provides z = 1.12.

d.

Look in the table for an area of .6700 - .5000 = .1700. This provides z = .44.

15. a.

Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .2119 = .2881. Since the value we are seeking is below the

mean, the z value must be negative. Thus, for an area of .2881, z = -.80.

b.

c.

d.

e.

Look in the table for an area of .1915. Since the value we are seeking is below the mean, the z

value must be negative. Thus, z = -.50.

16. a.

Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .0100 = .4900. The area value in the table closest to .4900

provides the value z = 2.33.

b.

Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .0250 = .4750. This corresponds to z = 1.96.

c.

Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .0500 = .4500. Since .4500 is exactly halfway between .

4495 (z = 1.64) and .4505 (z = 1.65), we select z = 1.645. However, z = 1.64 or z = 1.65 are

also acceptable answers.

d.

Look in the table for an area of .5000 - .1000 = .4000. The area value in the table closest to .4000

provides the value z = 1.28.

17.

= 527, = 160

a.

z=

700 527

= 1.08

160

b.

z=

100 527

= 2.67

160

c.

At 450, z =

450 527

= .48

160

P(450 < x < 700) = P(-.48 < z < 1.08) = .8599 - .3156 = .5443

d.

z=

300 527

= 1.42

160

6-6

= 30 and = 8.2

18.

a.

At x = 40, z =

40 30

= 1.22

8.2

P(x 40) = 1 - .8888 = .1112

b.

At x = 20, z =

20 30

= 1.22

8.2

P(x 20) = 1 - .8888 = .1112

c.

A z-value of 1.28 cuts off an area of approximately 10% in the upper tail.

x = 30 + 8.2(1.28) = 40.50

A stock price of $40.50 or higher will put a company in the top 10%

We have = 156.76 and = 138.01

19.

a.

Z =

416 156.76

1.88

138.01

P(x > 5.0) = P(z > 1.88) = 1 - P(z < 1.88) = 1 - .9699 = .0301

The rainfall exceeds 416 mm in 3.01% of the Februarys.

b.

Z =

70 156.76

.63

138.01

P(x < 3.0) = P(z < -.63) = P(z > .63) = 1 - P(z < .63) = 1 - .7357 = .2643

The rainfall is less than 70 mm in 26.43% of the Februarys.

c.

z = 1.28 cuts off approximately .10 in the upper tail of a normal distribution.

x = 156.76 + 1.28(138.01) = 333.413

If it rains 333.413 mm or more, February will be classified as extremely wet.

20.

a.

At x = 10,

z=

10 15.3

= 1.35

3.94

So, P(x < 10) = .0885

6-7

Chapter 6

b.

At x = 20,

z=

20 15.3

=1.19

3.94

So, P(x > 20) = .1170

11.7% of people logged on over 20 hours.

c.

A z-value of .84 cuts off an area of approximately .20 in the upper tail.

x = 15.3 + .84 (3.94) = 18.61

A person must spend 18.61 or more hours logged on to be classified a heavy user.

21.

From the normal probability tables, a z-value of 2.05 cuts off an area of approximately .02 in the

upper tail of the distribution.

x = + z = 100 + 2.05(15) = 130.75

A score of 131 or better should qualify a person for membership in Mensa.

6-8

Use = 441.84 and = 90

22.

a.

At 400

z=

400 441.84

.46

90

At 500

z=

500 441.84

.65

90

P(-.46 z < 0) = .1772

P(400 z 500) = .1772 + .2422 = .4194

The probability a worker earns between $400 and $500 is .4194.

b.

Must find the z-value that cuts off an area of .20 in the upper tail. Using the normal tables, we find

z = .84 cuts off approximately .20 in the upper tail.

So, x = + z = 441.84 + .84(90) = 517.44

Weekly earnings of $517.44 or above will put a production worker in the top 20%.

c.

At 250, z =

250 441.84

2.13

90

The probability a randomly selected production worker earns less than $250 per week is .0166.

23. a.

b.

z=

60 80

= 2 Area to left is .5000 - .4772 = .0228

10

At x = 60

z=

60 80

= 2

10

z=

75 80

= .5

10

At x = 75

c.

z=

90 80

=1

10

(60) (.1587) = 9.522

We would expect 9.522 students to be unable to complete the exam in time.

6-9

Chapter 6

24. a.

x =

s=

xi

= 902.75

n

( xi x ) 2

= 114.185

n 1

b.

At 800

z=

800 902.75

.90

114.185

The probability trading volume will be less than 800 million shares is .1841

c.

At 1000

z=

1000 902.75

.85

114.185

The probability trading volume will exceed 1 billion shares is .1977

d.

x = + z = 902.75 + 1.645(114.185) = 1,090.584

They should issue a press release any time share volume exceeds 1,091 million.

= 442.54, = 65

25.

a.

z=

400 442.54

= .65

65

b.

z=

300 442.54

= 2.19

65

c.

At x = 500, z =

500 442.54

= .88

65

P(400 < x < 500) = P(-.65 < z < .88) = .8106 - .2578 = .5528

26. a.

= np = 100(.20) = 20

6 - 10

2 = np (1 - p) = 100(.20) (.80) = 16

= 16 = 4

b.

c.

P (23.5 x 24.5)

z=

24.5 20

= +1.13

4

Area = .3708

z=

23.5 20

= +.88

4

Area = .3106

d.

P (17.5 x 22.5)

z=

17.5 20

= .63

4

Area = .2357

z=

22.5 20

= +.63

4

Area = .2357

e.

P (x 15.5)

z=

15.5 20

= 1.13

4

Area = .3708

27. a.

= np = 200(.60) = 120

2 = np (1 - p) = 200(.60) (.40) = 48

= 48 = 6.93

b.

c.

P (99.5 x 110.5)

z=

99.5 120

= 2.96

6.93

Area = .4985

z=

110 120

= 1.37

6.93

Area = .4147

6 - 11

Chapter 6

d.

P ( x 129.5)

z=

129.5 120

= +1.37 Area = .4147

6.93

e.

compute

P (x 130) = f (130) + f (131) + f (132) + f (133) + ...

28. a.

In answering this part, we assume it is not known how many Democrats and Republicans are in the

group.

= np = 250(.47) = 117.5

2 = np(1-p) = 250(.47)(.53) = 62.275

= 62.275 = 7.89

Half the group is 125 people. We want to find P(x 124.5).

At x = 124.5, z =

124.5 117.5

= .89

7.89

So, P(x 124.5) = .1867

We estimate a probability of .1867 that at least half the group is in favor of the proposal.

b.

For Democrats: np = 100(.29) = 29

Expected number in favor = 96 + 29 = 125

c.

It's a toss up. We expect just as many in favor of the proposal as opposed.

= 4.7410 = 2.18

c.

At x = 6.5,

z=

6.5 4.99

= .69

2.18

6 - 12

At x = 5.5,

z=

5.5 4.99

= .23

2.18

P(5.5 x 6.5) = .7549 - .5910 = .1639

Our estimate of the probability is .1639.

d.

At x = 3.5,

z=

3.5 4.99

= .68

2.18

So, P(x 3.5) = .7518

Our estimate of the probability that at least 4 are unemployed is .7518.

30. a.

= np = (800)(0.41) = 328

= np(1 p) = (800)(0.41)(0.59) = 13.9111

I would expect 328 to agree that Microsoft is a monopoly.

b.

At x = 300.5

z=

300.5 328

= 1.98

13.9111

The probability that 300 or fewer agree that Microsoft is a monopoly is 0.0239.

c.

= 13.9111 as in part a.

Find P(x > 450.5)

At x = 450.5

z=

450.5 472

= 1.55

13.9111

6 - 13

Chapter 6

The probability that there are over 450 that do not agree Microsoft is a monopoly.

31. a.

= np = 120(.75) = 90

= np(1 p) = (120)(.75)(.25) = 4.74

The probability at least half the rooms are occupied is the normal probability: P(x 59.5).

At x = 59.5

z=

59.5 90

= 6.43

4.74

b.

At x = 99.5

99.5 90

= 2.00

4.74

z=

c.

At x = 80.5

z=

80.5 90

= 2.00

4.74

32. a.

b.

c.

d.

P(4 x 6) = P(x 6) - P(x 4) = .5276 - .3935 = .1341

33. a.

P ( x x0 ) = 1 e x0 / 3

b.

c.

d.

e.

6 - 14

34. a.

b.

c.

P(x > 30) = 1 - P(x 30) = 1 - (1 - e-30/20 ) = e-30/20 = .2231

P(10 x 30) = P(x 30) - P(x 10)

= (1 - e-30/20 ) - (1 - e-10/20 ) = e-10/20 - e-30/20

= .6065 - .2231 = .3834

35. a.

f(x)

.09

.08

.07

.06

.05

.04

.03

.02

.01

x

6

12

18

b.

c.

d.

24

= 1 - (1 - e-30/12)

= .0821

36. a.

b.

c.

37. a.

50 hours

P(x 25) = 1 - e-25/50 = 1 - .6065 = .3935

P(x 100) = 1 - (1 - e-100/50)

= .1353

P(x < 2) = 1 - e-2/2.78 = .5130

b.

c.

This may seem surprising since the mean is 2.78 minutes. But, for the exponential distribution, the

probability of a value greater than the mean is significantly less than the probability of a value less

than the mean.

6 - 15

Chapter 6

38. a.

If the average number of transactions per year follows the Poisson distribution, the time between

transactions follows the exponential distribution. So,

1

of a year

30

and

1

1

=

= 30

1/ 30

b.

1

1

12

12

The probability of no transaction during January is the same as the probability of no transaction

during any month: .0821

c.

1

30 / 24

P x

= 1 .2865 = .7135

= 1 e

24

39. a.

1

for 200 x 225

f ( x) = 25

0 elsewhere

b.

c.

d.

If she waits, her expected sale price will be $2,500 higher than if she sells it back to her company

now. However, there is a 0.40 probability that she will get less. Its a close call. But, the expected

value approach to decision making would suggest she should wait.

6 - 16

40. a.

For a normal distribution, the mean and the median are equal.

= 63,000

b.

Find the z-score that cuts off 10% in the lower tail.

z-score = -1.28

Solving for x,

1.28 = x 63,000

15,000

x = 63,000 - 1.28 (15000) = 43,800

The lower 10% of mortgage debt is $43,800 or less.

c.

At x = 80,000

z=

= 1.13

15, 000

d.

z-score = 1.645. Solve for x.

1.645 =

x 63, 000

15, 000

The upper 5% of mortgage debt is in excess of $87,675.

41. a.

= 1 - P(9.85 x 10.15)

P(defect)

Expected number of defects = 1000(.3174) = 317.4

b.

= 1 - P(-3 z 3) = 1 - .9974 = .0026

Expected number of defects = 1000(.0026) = 2.6

c.

Reducing the process standard deviation causes a substantial reduction in the number of defects.

= 80,734

42.

a.

So,

6 - 17

Chapter 6

1.645 =

=

c.

75,422 80,734

75,422 80,734

= 3,229

1.645

At 80,400

z=

80,400 80,734

= .10

3,229

z=

78,410 80,734

= .72

3,229

At 78,410

P (80,400 < x < 78,410) = P (-.72 < z < -.10) = .2642 - .0398 = .2244

c.

x = 80,734 + 1.88 (3,229) = 86,804.52

The households with the highest 3% of expenditures spent more than NT$86,804.

= 10,000

43.

a.

= 1500

At x = 12,000

12, 000 10, 000

= 1.33 Area to left is .9082

1500

P(x > 12,000) = 1.0000 - .9082 = .0918

z=

b.

At .95

z = 1.645 =

x 10, 000

1500

95%

10,000

12,468 tubes should be produced.

6 - 18

0.05

12,468

44. a.

At x = 200

z=

200 150

= 2 Area = .4772

25

b.

45. a.

= 200 - 150 = $50

Find P(80,000 x 150,000)

At x = 150,000

z=

= 0.78

30, 000

z=

= 1.56

30, 000

At x = 80,000

P(80,000 x 150,000) = 0.7823 - 0.0594 = 0.7229

b.

At x = 50,000

z=

= 2.56

30, 000

c.

z-score = 1.645. Solve for x.

1.645 =

x 126, 681

30, 000

= 176,031

The probability is 0.95 that the number of lost jobs will not exceed 176,031.

46. a.

At 400,

6 - 19

Chapter 6

z=

400 450

= .500

100

Area to left is .3085

At 500,

z=

500 450

= +.500

100

Area to left is .6915

38.3% will score between 400 and 500.

b.

At 630,

z=

630 450

= 1.80

100

c.

At 480,

z=

480 450

= .30

100

Area to left is .6179

47. a.

At 75,000

z=

1.14

7, 000

P(x > 75,000) = P(z > 1.14) = 1 - P(z 1.14) = 1 - .8729 = .1271

The probability of a woman receiving a salary in excess of $75,000 is .1271

b.

At 75,000

z=

1.36

7, 000

P(x > 75,000) = P(z > 1.36) = 1 - P(z 1.36) = 1 - .9131 = .0869

The probability of a man receiving a salary in excess of $75,000 is .0869

c.

At x = 50,000

z=

2.43

7, 000

P(x < 50,000) = P(z < -2.43) = 1 - P(z < 2.43) = 1 - .9925 = .0075

The probability of a woman receiving a salary below $50,000 is very small: .0075

d.

The answer to this is the male copywriter salary that cuts off an area of .01 in the upper tail of the

distribution for male copywriters.

Use z = 2.33

6 - 20

A woman who makes $81,810 or more will earn more than 99% of her male counterparts.

= .6

48.

At 2%

z = -2.05

z=

x = 18

2.05 =

18

.6

0.02

=19.23

18

49.

a.

= np = 50 (.75) = 37.5

= np (1 p ) = 50(.75)(.25) = 3.06

At x = 42.5

z=

x 42.5 37.5

=

= 1.63

3.06

Probability of an A grade = .5000 - .4484 = .0516 or 5.16% will obtain an A grade.

b.

At x = 34.5

z=

34.5 37.5

= .98

3.06

At x = 39.5

z=

39.5 37.5

= .65

3.06

or 57.87% will obtain a C grade.

6 - 21

Chapter 6

c.

At x = 29.5

29.5 37.5

= 2.61

3.06

z=

or 99.55%of the students who have done their homework and attended lectures will pass the

examination.

d.

= np = 50 (.25) = 12.5

= np (1 p ) = 50(.25)(.75) = 3.06

At x = 29.5

z=

29.5 12.5

= 5.55

3.06

P(z 5.55) 0

Thus, essentially no one who simply guesses will pass the examination.

50. a.

= np = (240)(0.49) = 117.6

Expected number of wins is 117.6

Expected number of

The player should expect to lose $240.

b.

To lose $1000, the player must lose 20 more hands than he wins. With 240 hands in 4 hours, the

player must win 110 or less in order to lose $1000. Use normal approximation to binomial.

= np = (240)(0.49) = 117.6

= 240(.49)(.51) = 7.7444

Find P(x 110.5)

At x = 110.5

z=

110.5 117.6

= .92

7.7444

The probability he will lose $1000 or more is 0.1788.

c.

Find P(x 120.5)

At x = 120.5

6 - 22

z=

120.5 117.6

= .37

7.7444

The probability that the player will win is 0.3557. The odds are clearly in the houses favor.

d.

To lose $1500, the player must lose 30 hands more than he wins. This means he wins 105 or fewer

hands.

Find P(x 105.5)

At x = 105.5

z=

105.5 117.6

= 1.56

7.7444

The probability the player will go broke is 0.0594.

51. a.

b.

Therefore P(15 x 45) = .7135 - .3408 = .3727

c.

= 1 - (1 - e-60/36) = .1889

52. a.

b.

f(x) = 7e-7x

c.

d.

12 seconds is .2 minutes

P(x > .2) = 1 - P(x < .2) = 1- [1- e-7(.2)] = e-1.4 = .2466

53. a.

b.

1

e x / 24.7 .0405e .0405 x

24.7

P(x < 30) = 1 - e-.0405(30) = 1 - .2967 = .7033

P(x < 10) = 1 - e-.0405(10) = 1 - .6670 = .3330

P(10 < x < 30) = .7033 - .3330 = .3703

c.

P(x > 30) = P(x 30) = 1 - P(x < 30) = 1 - .7033 = .2967

6 - 23

Chapter 6

54. a.

b.

1

= 0.5 therefore = 2 minutes = mean time between telephone calls

P(x .5) = 1 - e-.5/2 = 1 - .7788 = .2212

c.

d.

6 - 24

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