01.simulation Concepts - Rev2.houts

Chapt.
1 -- Handout 1
Prof. Luis E. Herrera 01.Simulation_concepts Slide 1
Chapter 1
What is
Simulation?
Last revision January, 2014
What is Simulation?
A simulation: imitation of the operation of a real-world
process or systemover time:
Involves generation of an artificial history of a system.
Observes that history and draws inferences about system
characteristics.
Can be used as:
Analysis tool for predicting the effect of changes to existing systems.
Design tool to predict performance of new systems.
Many real-world systems are very complex that cannot be
solved mathematically.
Hence, numerical, computer-based simulation can be used to imitate the
systembehavior.
When to use Simulation?
Simulation can be used for the purposes of:
Study and experiment with internal interactions of a complex system.
Observe the effect of systemalterations on model behavior.
Gain knowledge about the systemthrough design of simulation model.
Use as a pedagogical device to reinforce analytic solution
methodologies, also to verify analytic solutions.
Experiment with new designs or policies before implementation.
Determine machine requirements through simulating different
capabilities.
For training and learning.
Show animation.
Model complex system.
When to use Simulation? (Contd)
Simulation can be used for the purposes of:
Explore new policies or procedures without disrupting ongoing
operations of the real system.
Test new hardware or physical systems without committing to
acquisition.
Test hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur.
Study speed-up or slow-down of the phenomena under investigation.
Study interactions of variables, and their importance to system
performance.
Performbottleneck analysis.
Understand how the systemoperates.
Test what if questions.
When NOT to use Simulation?
Simulation should not be used when:
Problemcan be solved by common sense.
Problemcan be solved analytically.
If it is easier to performdirect experiments.
If the costs exceed the savings.
If the resources or time to performsimulation studies are not available.
If no data, not even estimates, is available.
If there is not enough time or personnel to verify/validate the model.
If managers have unreasonable expectations: overestimate the power of
simulation.
If systembehavior is too complex or cannot be defined.
When NOT to use Simulation? (Contd)
Disadvantages:
Model building requires special training.
Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and
expensive.
Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical solution is possible
(or even preferable).
Chapt. 1 -- Handout 2
When NOT to use Simulation? (Contd)
Disadvantages (contd):
Dont get exact answers, only approximations, estimates
Also true of many other modern methods
Can bound errors by machine roundoff
Get randomoutput (RIRO) fromstochastic simulations
Statistical design, analysis of simulation experiments
Exploit: noise control, replicability, sequential sampling, variance-
reduction techniques
Catch: standard statistical methods seldomwork
Areas of application
The applications of simulation are vast.
The Winter Simulation Conference (www.wintersim.org): an excellent
way to learn more about the latest in simulation applications and theory.
Some areas of applications:
Manufacturing
Logistics, supply chain, and distribution.
Transportation modes and traffic.
Healthcare.
Construction engineering and project management.
Military.
Business process simulation.
Popularity of Simulation
Has been consistently ranked as the most useful, popular
tool in broader area of operations research / management
science
1978: M.S. graduates of CWRU O.R. Department after graduation
1. Statistical analysis
2. Forecasting
3. Systems Analysis
4. Information systems
5. Simulation
1979: Survey 137 large firms, which methods used?
1. Statistical analysis (93%used it)
2. Simulation (84%)
3. Followed by LP, PERT/CPM, inventory theory, NLP,
Popularity of Simulation (contd.)
1980: (A)IIE O.R. division members
First in utility and interest simulation
First in familiarity LP(simulation was second)
1983, 1989, 1993: Longitudinal study of corporate practice
1. Statistical analysis
2. Simulation
1989: Survey of surveys
Heavy use of simulation consistently reported
Since these surveys, hardware/software have improved,
making simulation even more attractive
Historical impediment to simulation computer speed
Using Computers to Simulate
General-purpose languages (C, C++, C#, Java, Matlab,
FORTRAN, others)
Tedious, low-level, error-prone
But, almost complete flexibility
Support packages for general-purpose languages
Subroutines for list processing, bookkeeping, time advance
Widely distributed, widely modified
Spreadsheets
Usually static models (only verysimple dynamic models)
Financial scenarios, distribution sampling, SQC
Examples in Kelton, Chapter 2 (one static, one dynamic)
Add-ins are available (@RISK, Crystal Ball)
Using Computers to Simulate (contd.)
Simulation languages
GPSS, SLX, SIMAN (on which Arena is based, included in Arena)
Popular, some still in use
Learning curve for features, effective use, syntax
Using Computers to Simulate (contd.)
High-level simulators
Very easy, graphical interface
Domain-restricted (manufacturing, communications)
Limited flexibility model validity?
Arena
Promodel
Simul8
Flexsim
Extend
Systems and System Environment
A systemis a group of objects joined together in some
regular interaction or interdependence to accomplish some
purpose.
e.g., a production system: machines, component parts & workers
operate jointly along an assembly line to produce vehicle.
Affected by changes occurring outside the system.
Systemenvironment: outside the system, defining the
boundary between systemand it environment is important.
Target systems in a simulation study: actual or planned
STEPS OF A SIMULATION
STUDY
Prof. Luis E. Herrera Topic 1 What Is Simulation?
Steps in a Sim. Study
Four phases:
Problemformulation, andsetting
objectiveandoverall design(step1to
2).
Modelingbuildinganddatacollection
(step3to 7)
Runningof themodel (step8to 10).
Implementation(step11to 12).
Aniterativeprocess.
Example of a Simulation Study
Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)
MODELS
25
Model of a System
Studies of systems are often accomplished with a model of a
system.
A model: a representation of a systemfor the purpose of
studying the system.
A simplification of the system.
Study model instead of real systemusually much easier, faster,
cheaper, safer
Should be sufficiently detailed to permit valid conclusions to be drawn
about the real system.
Model validity(any kind of model not just simulation)
Care in building to mimic reality faithfully
Level of detail
Get same conclusions frommodel as you would fromsystem
Should contain only the components that are relevant to the study.
Types of Models
Types of Models
Physical (iconic) models
Tabletop material-handling models
Mock-ups of fast-food restaurants
Flight simulators
Logical (mathematical) models
Approximations, assumptions about systems operation
Often represented via computer programin appropriate software
Exercise programto try things, get results, learn about model behavior
Mathematical model: uses symbolic notation and mathematical
equations to represent a system.
Simulationis a type of mathematical model.
Logical Models
If model is simple enough, use traditional mathematical
analysis get exact results, lots of insight into model
Queueing theory
Differential equations
Linear programming
But complex systems can seldombe validlyrepresented by
simple analytic model
Danger of over-simplifying assumptions model validity?
Type III error working on the wrong problem
Often, complex systemrequires complex model, analytical
methods dont apply what to do?
Simulation Models
Static vs. Dynamic
Does time have a role in model?
Continuous-change vs. Discrete-change
Can state change continuously, or only at discrete points in time?
Discrete example: the number of jobs in queue changes when a new job
arrives or when service is completed for another
Continuous example: the head of water behind a dam
Deterministic vs. Stochastic
Is everything for sure or is there uncertainty?
Most operational models:
Dynamic, Discrete-change, Stochastic
Components of a Simulation System
An entity: an object of interest in the system, e.g., computing
jobs in queue.
An attribute: a property of an entity, e.g., priority class, or vector
of resource requirements.
An activity: represents a time period of a specified length, e.g.
job receiving service.
The state of a system: collection of variablesnecessary to
describe the system at any time, relative to the objectives of the
study, e.g. the number of busy servers, the number of jobs in
queue.
An event: an instantaneous occurrence that may change the
system state, can be endogenous or exogenous, e.g. a new job
arrival, or service time completion
Components of a Simulation System
System Entities Attributes Activities Events StateVariables
Banking - Customers
- Policemen
- Checkingaccount balance
- Customer'sVIPstatus
- MakingDeposits
- Withdrawal
- Arrival
- Departure
- Number of busytellers
- Number of customers
waiting
RapidRail - Riders
- Salesmen
- Origin
- Destination
- Traveling
- Eating
- Arrival at astation
- Arrival at destination
- Number of riderswaitingat
eachstation
- Number of ridersintransit
Production - Products
- Sub-assys
- Arrival time
- Priorityof service
- Routing
- Weldingstation
- Machining
- Inspection
- Arrival of product
- Machinebreakdown
- Shift change
- Statusof machines: busy,
idle, or down
- Number of partsinsystem
Communication- Messages - Length
- Destination
- Transmitting
- Verifying
- Transmission
complete
- Machinebreakdown
- Shift change
- Statusof machines: busy,
idle, or down
- Number of messages
waitingfor transmission

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