ASSIGNMENT-III

INFLATION: CPI USED TO SET INLATION TARGET

Introduction:
Inflation means the general level of prices is going up. Economists measure inflation regularly to know an
economy's state. Inflation changes the ratio of money towards goods or services; more money is needed to get the
same amount of a good or service, or the same amount of money will get a lower amount of a good or service.
Consequently, inflation also reflects
Inflation occurs due to an imbalance between demand buys fewer goods and services.It has its worst impact on
consumers. igh
Causes of Infation
!emand"#ull inflation
$he !emand"#ull inflation theory can be said simply as %too much money chasing too few goods.% In other words,
if the will of buying goods is growing faster than amount of goods that have been made, then prices will go up.
$his most likely happens in economies that are growing fast. &henever a product is bought or sold beyond its real
price for its worth, then Inflation of money occurs.
Cost"#ush inflation
$he Cost"#ush inflation theory says that when the cost of making goods 'which are paid by the company( go up,
they have to make prices higher to still make profit out of selling that very product. $he higher costs of making
goods can include things like workers wages, ta)es to be paid to the government or bigger costs of getting raw
materials from other countries.
!istor" and Current Status
For 2009, Indian inflation stood at 11.49%. According to the Economic Survey Report for 2009-10, economic
growth decelerated to 6,7% in 2008-09 from 9% in 2007-08.
Indias 2009-10 Economic Survey Report suggested a high double-digit increase in food inflation, with signs of
inflation spreading to various other sectors as well. The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, however,
expressed his optimism in March 2010 about an imminent easing of Indian wholesale price index-based inflation,
on the back of falling oil and food prices.
On March 19, 2010, the Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark reverse repurchase rate to 3.5% percent, after
this rate touched record lows of 3.25%. The repurchase rate was raised to 5% from 4.75% as well, in an attempt to
curb inflation.
In its Annual Monetary Policy Statement, RBI had said the firming up of global commodity prices poses upside
risks to inflation. The central banks industrial outlook survey shows companies are increasingly regaining their
pricing power in many sectors, and as the recovery gains momentum, the demand pressures are expected to
accenture.
*n +ay ,-, ./,0 1eserve 2ank of India, 3overner, !r.1aghuram 1a4an was talking to reporters after the 12I5s
board meeting updated that,6 Interest rate is the best tool for 1eserve 2ank to control inflation5, he said the 7best
tool5 available with the central bank to control price rise was interest rate and adding that the government too had
tools such as increasing agricultural production and improving supply.
82oth need to work together and will work together. &e were e)pecting some increase in the C#I number because
of the seasonal effects from vegetable prices, but it came more than anticipated by the consensus forecast. &e will
study them in greater detail. &hat does it suggest is that inflation is high as far as food prices go,6 he added.
owever, he said the core inflation had been coming down but though 7very very gently5. 1etail or consumer price
inde) 'C#I( inflation rose to a three"month high of 9.-: per cent in ;pril. !r. 1a4an e)uded confidence that retail
inflation would come down to < per cent by +arch, ./,<. 8&e are very comfortable with the fact that we can
achieve what the =r4it #atel committee suggested of 9 per cent inflation at the end of the year and < per cent at the
end of ne)t year.6
$he &#I based inflation has eased to -.. per cent, while the retail inflation was still high at 9.-: per cent in ;pril.
Infation fi#ures $ertainin# to %&'(
$his involves inflation based on the C#I 'consumer price inde)( and the IC# 'harmonised consumer price
inde)( . $he C#I is often considered a country5s most important inflation figure.
Inflation development during ./,>
; graph and a table with additional information about the development of inflation during ./,> can be found
below. &hen you select a country and a type of inflation in the selection bo), the page will automatically change
and show the development of the inflation figure which you have selected in ./,>.
C)art CPI India %&'(
?ource @3lobal rates.com',../<.,0(
Ta*e CPI India %&'(
+onths in ./,> inflation 'yearly basis(
Aanuary ,,.<,< B
Cebruary ,../</ B
+arch ,,.00> B
;pril ,/..00 B
+ay ,/.<9/ B
Aune ,,./-9 B
Auly ,/.90: B
;ugust ,/.D09 B
?eptember ,/.<:9 B
*ctober ,,./</ B
Eovember ,,.0<9 B
!ecember :.,>. B

+ain drivers of food and non"food inflation in C#I new series















?ource@ +inistry of Cinance F+id"Gear Economic ;nalysis'./,>"./,0(H
IMPACT OF INFLATION ON INDIA+S ECONOMIC DE,ELOPMENT
$he Indian economy recovered in the second quarter 'I.( of ./,>",0 recording a growth of 0.9 per cent. $his
follows a growth rate of 0.0 per cent in the first quarter 'I,( of the current financial yearJ the lowest in ,<
quarters. &hile the 3overnment delivered on the announced fiscal targets in ./,.",>, current account deficit
'C;!( continued to remain elevated in I, of ./,>",0 and in tandem with market misperception of an imminence
of the rollback of quantitative easing in =?, assumed a serious dimension with the sharp depreciation of the rupee.
$he 3overnment put in place a series of measures and there has been a significant let"up in the challenges on the
trade and balance of payments front, particularly in the I. ./,>",0. !omestic impediments like elevated levels of
food and retail inflation, high input costs and pressure on profit margins and infrastructural bottlenecks continued,
with the 3overnment addressing them through appropriate calibration of fiscal policy, administrative measures
and institutional mechanisms like Cabinet Committee on Investment to fast track pro4ects.
$he recovery in growth, although weak, is e)pected to gather pace in the coming quarters. &hile there are some
concerns about renewed price pressure in *ctober ./,> and the services sector, the driver of growth, is still to pick
up, there are indications to the effect that these could be reversed going forward. $he analyses in various sections
of this chapter would provide the analytical basis for the above assessment. &ith recent improvements in growth
of some sectors, better performance of e)ports and measures taken by the 3overnment, the year ./,>",0 can be
e)pected to end with a growth of - per cent.
$he Indian economy weathered the global financial crisis rather well and quickly recovered from the decline in
growth rate in .//9"/: to a healthy growth that averaged around : per cent annually in .//:",/ and ./,/",,.
owever, this recovery was short"lived and growth rate declined to <.. per cent in ./,,",. and -./ per cent in
./,.",>, on account of both domestic and e)ternal factors. !espite some recovery in the growth of agriculture and
industry sector, particularly in I. of the current financial year, the overall growth of the economy has been a
modest 0.< per cent in the first half of the year. $he growth rate of the economy improved from 0.0 per cent in I,
./,>" ,0 to 0.9 per cent in I.. Compared to I, ./,>",0, I. has evidenced a robust pick"up in the growth of the
agricultural sector and a gradual recovery in the industrial sector. $he growth in economic services also got
strengthened, while the community, social and personal services" a sector with substantial public sector presence "
e)hibited a significant fall in growth, pointing towards efforts at fiscal consolidation. $he demand side impetus to
growth is gradually gaining momentum with the strengthening of private consumption and investment and with
e)ports making an impressive turnaround in I. ./,>",0. $he confluence of these factors has resulted in a growth
of 0.< per cent during the first half ',( of ./,>",0, roughly the same level of 0.D per cent achieved during the
second half '.( of ./,.",>.
*n the e)ternal front, the crisis of .//9, the subsequent sovereign debt crisis and the recession in the Euro"area
had moderated the average growth rate of the global economy to less than > per cent over the period .//9"./,. as
compared to - per cent during .//0".//D. !ata from I+C indicate that several emerging market economies
including China and India quickly rebounded to high growth in the aftermath of the crisis. In fact, in terms of
market price 3!#, India5s growth e)ceeded that of China in ./,/. ;part from emerging economies, advanced
economies also e)perienced significant recovery in ./,/ with both the =? and the Euro"area registered distinctly
higher growth rates. ; series of subsequent events, including the uncertainty surrounding Euro"area sovereign debt
crisis, hampered sustained economic recovery in advanced economies with adverse consequences for growth and
challenges for macroeconomic management in emerging market economies. &ith the intensification of the
sovereign debt crisis, the decline in real 3!# growth rates starting ./,, has been witnessed across advanced and
emerging market economies. Economic growth has again started looking up in advanced economies, especially in
the =?, alleviating the e)ternal constraint on India5s recovery to some e)tent.
$he slowdown in real 3!# growth in India during ./,,",. and ./,.",> is the trends in similar emerging
economies. $he downturn has been more pronounced in the Indian case, owing to domestic and structural factors.
$he growth of real 3!# has generally shown a declining trend since the first quarter of ./,,",.. ;n upward
movement in some of the quarters in between raised the hope for a turnaround that was belied .Corresponding to
this, the industrial sector witnessed a long, steep decline. $he service sector also witnessed growth moderation,
which has been gradual and less steep than the industrial sector, and its growth remained more or less constant
during I> ./,.",> to I, ./,>",0. ;s panel , of Cigure ,., shows, the declining trend in 3!# growth has
reversed in I. ./,>",0, on the back of higher growth in agriculture and industry vis"K"vis I, ./,>",0.
*LE1LIE& *C $E EC*E*+G
















?ource@ +inistry of Cinance F+id"Gear Economic ;nalysis'./,>"./,0(H
Re-edia Measures to Contro Infation:
;ccording to $rading Economics on the benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 9 percent. Interest
1ate in India averaged <.<0 #ercent from ./// until ./,0, reaching an all time high of ,0.-/ #ercent in ;ugust of
./// and a record low of 0..- #ercent in ;pril of .//:. Interest 1ate in India is reported by the 1eserve 2ank of
India.
$he +inistry of Cinance and the 12I '1eserve 2ank of India( always strive to control inflation. $hey control
inflation by directly affecting the demand pull inflation by changing the amount of liquidity circulating in the
economy. $he 12I can change the liquidity by its various tools viM. C11, 2ank"1ate '1E#* and 1everse"1E#*(,
?N1, etc.
C11 'Cash 1eserve 1atio( is the proportion of amount which each commercial bank 'like ?2I, ICICI, etc.( has to
maintain in the form of hard cash. ;ll commercial banks accept deposits from individuals and lend it to borrowers
at a higher interest rate. $he difference between the interest rate which they collect from borrowers and which they
pay to their depositors is their profit. Eaturally, each bank will try to lend all the money they collect from
depositors. owever, banks can5t lend all the money they have. =nder law, each bank has to maintain a certain
proportion of cash as reserve. $his is known as C11. &hen 12I increases the C11, the bank5s lending power
decreases. Ness lending means less borrowing, this in turn means less money in the economy. Nast month, the 12I
increased the C11 from 9.D-B to :B to control inflation. ?N1 '?tatutory Niquidity 1atio( is also similar to C11.
2ut in case of ?N1, 3overnment"?ecurities need to be maintained by the commercial banks instead of cash.
In its .9th Aanuary ./,0 meeting, 1eserve 2ank of India decided to raise the policy repo rate by .- bps to 9
percent to handle currency pressure and curb persistently high inflation.
2ank"1ate is basically the interest rate at which the Central 2ank borrows from the other scheduled commercial
banks. $his rate is directly linked to the interest rates charged in turn by all the commercial banks to its customers.
;ll these other interest rates on ome"loans, #ersonal"loans, etc. also increase with the increase in bank"rate.
$hus, by raising the 2ank"1ate and in turn all other Interest 1ates, the 12I makes borrowing money from banks a
very costly affair. #eople are thus discouraged to borrow more money and total amount of liquidity decreases in
the economy. Nast month, the 12I increased the 2ank 1ate from 9.-B to :.-B. $his was an increase of -/ basis"
points '/.-B( to control inflation.
$he above mentioned measures viM. C11, ?N1, 2ank"1ate are called +onetary #olicy tools. ;part from these,
there are certain Ciscal #olicy tools which the 3overnment can use. *ne recent e)ample of fiscal tool is the recent
ban placed on the e)port of 2asmati rice by the Cinance +inister. 2y banning the e)port of rice, the supply of rice
will increase in the home country relative to its demand. $his will naturally bring down the price of rice which is a
ma4or component of &#I. $he price"rise in 2asmati rice is an e)ample of !emand"pull inflation because demand
has increased relative to supply. ;lthough, it could be said that demand for rice is not related to liquidity but is
inelastic 'where demand is autonomous and not related to increase in price or income(.
$he rise in interest rates initially makes life difficult for people who have taken loans on floating interest rates, it is
a required step to bring down inflation which is a larger evil. It might also be noted that 12I, by making the policy
changes can control only one type of inflation i.e. demand"pull inflation. It cannot affect the other type of inflation
i.e. cost"push inflation which is caused by rise in prices of raw"materials and other factors of production. $hat is
why the rate of inflation is increasing continuously since last si) months although the 12I is trying to control it. In
fact, only the cost"push component of inflation is rising which consists of increase in prices of steel, cement,
petroleum, etc. ?ome of these factors are produced in our country and others are imported. 2ut the prices of none
of them can be controlled by the government.
.une (rd/ %&'0 -eetin#/ Reser1e 2an3 of India eft t)e re$o rate at 4 $ercent/ *ut cut t)e a-ount of
#o1ern-ent *onds *an3s -ust )od 5it) t)e centra *an3 - t)e statutor" i6uidit" ratio - *" 7& *$s to %%87
$ercent/ ai-in# to increase *an3 credit8
$he cut in statutory liquidity ratio will take effect from the fortnight beginning Aune ,0, ./,0. $he central bank
also decided to reduce the liquidity provided under the e)port credit refinance facility from -/ per cent of eligible
e)port credit outstanding to >. per cent with immediate effect. #olicymakers introduced a special term repo
facility of /..- per cent of net demand and time liabilities to compensate fully for the reduction in access to
liquidity under the EC1 with immediate effect.
In +arch and ;pril, C#I headline inflation has risen on the back of a sharp increase in food prices. ?ome of this
price pressure will continue into +ay, but it is largely seasonal. +oreover, C#I inflation e)cluding food and fuel
has been edging down. $he risks to the central forecast of 9 per cent C#I inflation by Aanuary ./,- remain broadly
balanced. =pside risks in the form of a sub"normalOdelayed monsoon on account of possible El Eino effects, geo"
political tensions and their impact on fuel prices, and uncertainties surrounding the setting of administered prices
appear at this stage to be balanced by the possibility of stronger 3overnment action on food supply and better
fiscal consolidation as well as the pass through of recent e)change rate appreciation. ;ccordingly, at this 4uncture,
it is appropriate to leave the policy rate unchanged, and to allow the disinflationary effects of rate increases
undertaken during ?eptember ./,>"Aanuary ./,0 to mitigate inflationary pressures in the economy.
$he 1eserve 2ank remains committed to keeping the economy on a disinflationary course, taking C#I inflation to
9 per cent by Aanuary ./,- and < per cent by Aanuary ./,<. If the economy stays on this course, further policy
tightening will not be warranted. *n the other hand, if disinflation, ad4usting for base effects, is faster than
currently anticipated, it will provide headroom for an easing of the policy stance.
In pursuance of the !r. =r4it 1. #atel Committee5s recommendation to move away from sector"specific refinance
towards a more generaliMed provision of system liquidity without preferential access to any particular sector or
entity, the 1eserve 2ank has decided to limit access to e)port credit refinance while compensating fully with a
commensurate e)pansion of the market5s access to liquidity through a special term repo facility from the 1eserve
2ank 'equivalent to /..- per cent of E!$N(. $his should improve access to liquidity from the 1eserve 2ank for
the system as a whole without the procedural formalities relating to documentary evidence, authoriMation and
verification associated with the EC1. $his should also improve the transmission of policy impulses across the
interest rate spectrum and engender efficiency in cashOtreasury management.
;s the economy recovers, investment demand and the need for credit will pick up. $o the e)tent that this
contributes eventually to supply, it is important that banks have the room to finance it. ; reduction in the required
?N1 will give banks more freedom to e)pand credit to the non"3overnment sector. owever, the 1eserve 2ank is
also cogniMant of the significant on"going financing needs of the 3overnment. $herefore, the ?N1 is reduced by
/.-/ per cent of E!$N, with any further change dependent on the likely path of fiscal consolidation.
CPI s)oud *e used to set infation tar#et: R2I $ane
Inflation based on Consumer #rice Inde) 'C#I(
; 1eserve 2ank of India '12I( panel on $uesday recommended that monetary policy be set by a committee and
that consumer price inde) 'C#I( inflation be used to set an inflation target, eventually of 0 percent.
$he panel's report also said it should be made clear that managing inflation is the central bank's primary ob4ective.
$he recommendations of the panel, which was established by 12I 3ov. 1aghuram 1a4an when he took office in
early ?eptember, are widely e)pected to be adopted by the Indian central bank.
=nder current 12I practice, the power to make policy decisions is held solely by the governor. $he 12I, unlike
many central banks, has long used wholesale price inde) '&#I( inflation as its primary guage.
1eserve 2ank of India '12I( 3overnor 1aghuram 1a4an today hiked repo rate" the rate at which the central bank
lends short term money to banks" for the second time in as many months, citing inflationary concerns.
; 1eserve 2ank of India '12I( panel on $uesday recommended that monetary policy be set by a committee and
that consumer price inde) 'C#I( inflation be used to set an inflation target, eventually of 0 percent.$he panel's
report also said it should be made clear that managing inflation is the central bank's primary ob4ective.$he
recommendations of the panel, which was established by 12I 3overnor 1aghuram 1a4an when he took office in
early ?eptember, are widely e)pected to be adopted by the Indian central bank.=nder current 12I practice, the
power to make policy decisions is held solely by the governor. $he 12I, unlike many central banks, has long used
wholesale price inde) '&#I( inflation as its primary guage
!ere are
,. 1epo or short"term lending rate hiked by /..- per cent to D.D- per cent
.. +arginal standing facility '+?C( rate or overnight lending rate cut by /..- per cent to 9.D- per cent
>. 3rowth forecast for the current fiscal slashed to - per cent from -.D per cent earlier
0. Cash reserve ratio 'C11(" the portion of a bank's deposit that it must mandatorily park with 12I, unchanged
at 0 per cent. $he minimum daily maintenance of the C11 has been reduced from :: per cent of the
requirement to :- per cent effective from the fortnight beginning ?eptember .,. ./,>.
-. Cash provided to banks through term repo increased to /.-/ per cent of net demand and time liability from
/..- per cent earlier
<. !ifference between repo and +?C rate narrows to , per cent
D. &holesale inflation e)pected to be higher than current levels; warranting 'appropriate policy response'
9. 1etail inflation to remain around : per cent or even higher without policy action
:. $o closely monitor inflation risks while being mindful of the evolving growth dynamics
,/. Cood price pressures may ease with the arrival of summer crop harvest and seasonal moderation
Concusion:
Inflation is not harmful at all times. In fact only when there is a sustained increase above DB to 9B, there is cause
for worry. In fact a low level of inflation between .B and -B is a sign of prosperity. It is required for growth.
$hat5s because it gives the producer of goods and services a certain impetus to stay in the market. $his in turn
gives rise to growth, development and employment which is very much required. Inflation is also closely linked to
employment but that is the topic of discussion for another day.
1eference@
Economic NiberaliMation in India 'n.d.(, 1etrieved from
http@OOen.wikipedia.orgOwikiOEconomicPliberalisationPinPIndia
+id"Gear Economic ;nalysis'./,>",0( 1etrieved from
http@OOwww.finmin.nic.inOreportsO+G1./,>,0English.pdf
Inflation, 1etrieved from
http@OOen.wikipedia.orgOwikiOInflation
C#I should be used to set inflation target@ 12I panel'Aan. .,,./,0( 1etrieved from
http@OOin.reuters.comOarticleO./,0O/,O.,Oindia"rbi"monetarypolicy"inflation"idIE!EE;/Q/E../,0/,.,
12I will need to keep raising policy interest rate R I+C 1etrieved from
http@OOin.reuters.comOarticleO./,0O/.O.,Oindia"economy"policy"imf"idIE!EE;,A/CS./,0/..,