Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
=
t
p
K
The population in the future is then estimated from
P
t
= P
o
+ K
t
Where P
t
= the population at some time in the future
P
o
= the present population
t = the period of the projection
1.5.2 Geometric increase method
The hypothesis of geometric or uniform percentage growth assumes a rate of increase
which is proportional to population.
p k
d
d
t
p
' =
Integration of their equation yields
In
p
= In
Po
+ kt
This hypothesis is best tested by plotting recorded population growth on semi log paper.
If a straight line can be fitted to the data, the value of k can be determined from its slope.
Alternatively K may be estimated from recorded population using
t
In In
K
o
p p
= '
In which P and Po are recorded populations separated by a time interval t
1.5.3 Method of varying increment
POLY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Lecture Notes 2006 E.C Second semester By Hailay Z.
5
In this method, the per decade growth rate is not assumed to be constant as in the
arithmetic or geometric progression methods; but is progressively increasing or
decreasing, depending upon whether the average of the incremental increase in the past
data is positive or negative.
The population for a future decade is worked out by adding the mean arithmetic increase
(say x) to the last known population as in arithmetic increase method, to this is added the
average of the incremental increases y, once for the first decade, twice for the second
decade, thrice for the third decade and so on.
The method, thus, assumes that the growth rate in the first decade is @ (x+y), in the
second decade @ (x+2y) and in the n
th
decade @ (x+n.y). Thus the growth rate is
assumed to be varying.
As per the above discussion, we can mathematically write as:
P
1
=population after one decade from the present (i.e. last known census )
=P
o
+(x+1*y)
P
2
=Population after 2 decades
=P1+(x+2*y)
= P
o
+(2*x+3*y)
= P
o
+2*x+2*[2+1]/2[y]
Similarly, P
4
= P
3
+(x+4*y) = P
o
+4*x+10*y = P
o
+4*x+4*[4+1]/2[y]
P
n
= P
n-1
+(x+n*y) = P
o
+3*x+6*y = P
o
+n*x+n*[n+1]/2[y]
1.5.4 Logistic Method
The logistic curve used in modeling population trends has an S shape. The hypothesis of
logistic growth may be tested by plotting recorded population data on logistic paper on
which it will appear as a straight line if the hypothesis valid. In the short term, logistic
projection can be made based up on the equation.
t b
a
sat
P
p
+
+
=
l 1
where P
sate
= the situation population of the community a and b = are constants
P
sat
, a and b may be determined from three successive census populations and the
equations:
( )
( )
( )
o sat
s sat o
o
o sat
o
o o
sat
P P P
P P P
n b
P
P P
In a
P P P
P P P P P P
P
+
=
1
2
1 2
2
2
1 2 1
/
2
1
2
Where n = the time interval b/n successive census. Substitution of there values in if *
permits the estimation of population for any period t beyone the base year
corresponding to P
o
.