T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION TO RISK MANAGEMENT......................................................................... 3 WHY DO PROJECTS FAIL? ............................................................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER 2. BENEFITS OF RISK ASSESSMENT....................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 3. FEATURE COMPARISON LIST................................................................................................ 7 CHAPTER 4. PERTMASTERS PLANNING TOOLS................................................................................... 10 4.1
CREATING A PROJECT PLAN ........................................................................................................................... 10 4.2
DELIVERABLES OF WORK (WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE) .................................................................... 12 4.3
PREPARING THE ACTIVITY LIST .................................................................................................................... 13 4.4
3 I N T R O D U C T I O N T O R I S K M A N A G E M E N T Why do projects fail? implistically, a project fails when it over-runs, over-spends or under-performs. In other words, it fails when the plan is not met. There are only two reasons why the plan is not met: The plan is too optimistic - an over-optimistic plan is very common, and can arise out of shoe-horning and cramming in order to meet pre-determined targets. Under-bidding, scale- to-fit, and political spin are also common causes. Things happen, that means the plan is exceeded - scope creep, insufficient resources, unanticipated work and events are some causes of this. Parallelism in projects further exaggerates optimism in estimates, because parallel tasks compound risk. This phenomenon is called merge bias or nodal bias. It is especially present when the project is deliberately scheduled with minimal float (a common planning technique). Even when there is no significant optimism, or significant parallelism to compound it, the most likely outcome of the project is rarely the scenario based on the most likely estimates. Using the most likely estimates in a plan usually gives a projected outcome that has a very low level of confidence. This project will be delayed if either one of these parallel tasks are delayed. The more parallelism there is, the more ways the project can slip. A more realistic plan is one that recognizes uncertainty and risk. It simply needs to express estimates as ranges: As well as the deterministic (single-point) estimate, use ranges (two- or three-point estimates) to express uncertainty and risk Use the best knowledge available to the team. Reflect lack of knowledge with wide ranges. You can give these range-estimates on any element of the project, including durations, costs, resource rates, resource allocations, and even calendars. You can also add specific risk events. Chapter 1 S
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The projected outcomes also become ranges when parameters in a project have ranges (two or three-point estimates, with some specific risk events),. For example the project finish date is no longer a single date, but is now a range, with a confidence level too!!
5 BE N E F I T S O F R I S K A S S E S S M E N T Project contingency can make or break a project. Having too much contingency is uncompetitive; having too little contingency increases the chance of failure. Risk assessment (allowing uncertainty on estimates) gives confidences on outcome targets, allowing contingency to be set with a preferred level of risk. Ultimately risk assessment helps you bid, negotiate and win the contract at the price. Contingency is often set at task level it is common to add some contingency to every estimate. It may even be a fixed amount 10% for example. However, it is much better to set contingency at project level instead in other words, use the ranges on the task estimates to understand what contingency should be set for the project as a whole. Setting contingency at project level reflects the reality that some tasks may be delayed while others may not, or may even be early: it could rain anywhere, but its unlikely to rain everywhere and we dont know where it will rain. Considering project cost and schedule together is also rare often cost and schedules are separate disciplines within the team. A risk assessment workshop can bring the disciplines together. These are all compelling reasons to use risk assessment on a project. It allows contracts to be negotiated, bids to be submitted at the right price, and sensitivity to be understood (as discussed in the previous section). Risk response (mitigation) strategies can be expressed too !!
Where we are now where we can be Cost of getting there Chapter 2
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Understanding the effects of risk assessment on finish dates of a Project: The proposed risk response appears to save around two months on the whole project.
Understanding the effects of risk assessment on Cost of a Project: Cost-benefit analysis can be used to compare response strategies and understand how effectively the money would be spent. When the cost of implementing the response is included in the comparison, it can show the net effect of the response on the project cost. The response can then be judged in terms of whether its net effect is to increase cost, and whether that increase can be justified by the time it saves.
7 FE A T U R E C O M P A R I S O N L I S T While both of PERTMASTERs tools can be used too identify, assess, & build mitigation plans, the RISK EXPERT MODULE provides greater scope for an in depth risk analysis & resource and cost modeling. The following table should make your vision clear...
Pertmaster Risk Expert
Pertmaster Project Risk
1 Monte Carlo Analysis
2 Latin Hypercube Analysis
Quantitative Risk Analysis 3 Optional fixed seed point
Qualitative Risk Analysis 11 Generation of Risk Event Plans from risk register
12 Alternate scenario modeling
13 XLS integration
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8 Primavera 14 P3 Project Planner
15 SureTrak
16 Enterprise (including P3e/c, TeamPlay, IT Project Manager)
17 Primavera Contractor
18 Pertmaster data pushed back into the Primavera schedule
19 Support for Primavera Java API v3.51, v4, v4.1 and v5
20 Load Multiple projects into the same file
Integration 21 Save projects as P3 files
22 Project Management integrated menu
Microsoft 23 MS Project 200x (MPD, MPP)
24 MS Project Server (EPM)
Conquest Welcom 25 Open Plan
26 WelcomRisk
Safran (Safran Project & Safran Planner)
Generic Risk Import/Export
27 Net present value
Cost Modeling 28 Internal rate of return
29 Probabilistic cash flow
Resource Modeling 30 Hierarchical resources
31 Resource uncertainty
9 32 Estimate uncertainty
33 Task existence
Risk Types 34 Probabilistic branching
35 Conditional branching
36 Fixed cost uncertainty
37 Variable cost uncertainty
38 Resource uncertainty
39 Weather modeling
40 Duration quick risk
41 Resource quick risk
Risk Utilities 42 Task lag quick risk
43 Risk Correlation
44 Schedule sanity check
45 Templated Quick Risk
46 Risk Histogram
47 Tornado Graph
48 Duration sensitivity
49 Schedule sensitivity
Risk Reporting 50 Criticality
51 Cruciality
52 Cost sensitivity
53 Compare plans 54 Critical path report 55 Compare pre and post-mitigated plans 56 Risk trend report 57 Probabilistic date reporting
58 Edit/creation of VBA macros
VBA Interface 59 Execution of pre-created macros
60 Customizable macro menu
10 PE R T M A S T E R s P L A N N I N G T O O L S 4.1 Creating a project plan Let as presume our project plan is to be prepared from the beginning. So we start from square one by first building a project plan.
Note: If you already have a project plan ready (using other planning tools) we can import that too! And get started; however let us learn how to build project plans using PERTMASTERs tools. Lessons on importing a pre-build plan from other planning tools are covered in the latter part of this manual.
Our assignment now is to initiate a project. This project will be identified as Office Building Addition. Our first aim would be to make a detailed plan of this project so that we can identify all small & big risks in the next step
Exercise 1:
1. Click on File / New
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11 2. Select Pertmaster Plan. Click Open
3. Fill in the details of the Project
4. Click OK
12 4.2 Deliverables of Work (Work Breakdown Structure)
Now that we have initiated the Office building Addition project, we need to split this into possible deliverables i.e. we need to define the Work Breakdown Structure.
Exercise 2: Create the Work Breakdown Structure as given in the Table below. You may follow instructions from your tutor.
Office Building Addition Design & Engineering Structure Foundation Mechanical Electrical Systems Elevators
13 4.3 Preparing the Activity List Exercise 3: Add the following Activities in the respective WBS already created earlier.
Name (Activity ID) Description Remaining Duration (days) Activity Type OBA 0000 Office Building Addition summary OBA 0010 Design and Engineering summary OBA 0020 Start Office Building Addition Project 0 start milestone OBA 0030 Design Building Addition 23 normal OBA 0040 Review and Approve Designs 9 normal OBA 0050 Review Technical Data for Heat Pump 13 normal OBA 0060 Foundation summary OBA 0070 Begin Building Construction 0 start milestone OBA 0080 Site Preparation 18 normal OBA 0090 Excavation 10 normal OBA 0100 Install Underground Water Lines 5 normal OBA 0110 Install Underground Electric Conduit 5 normal OBA 0120 Form/ Pour Concrete Footings 10 normal OBA 0130 Concrete Foundation Walls 10 normal OBA 0140 Form and Pour Slab 5 normal
OBA 0150 Backfill and Compact Walls 2 normal
14 OBA 0160 Foundation Phase Complete 0 finish milestone OBA 0170 Structure summary OBA 0180 Erect Structural Frame 20 normal OBA 0190 Begin Structural Phase 0 start milestone OBA 0200 Floor Decking 14 normal OBA 0210 Concrete First Floor 15 normal OBA 0220 Erect Stairwell and Elevator Walls 10 normal OBA 0230 Concrete Basement Slab 10 normal OBA 0240 Concrete Second Floor 15 normal OBA 0250 Structure Complete 0 finish milestone OBA 0260 Mechanical/ Electrical Systems summary OBA 0270 Rough- In Phase Begins 0 start milestone OBA 0280 Rough In Complete 0 finish milestone OBA 0290 Elevator summary OBA 0300 Install Elevator Rails and Equipment 1 normal OBA 0310 Install Elevator Cab and Finishes 2 normal OBA 0320 Plumbing and Electrical summary OBA 0330 Set Mechanical and Electrical Equipment 15 normal
OBA 0340 Rough- In Plumbing/ Piping 1 normal
15 OBA 0350 Install Wiring and Cable 15 normal OBA 0360 Connect Equipment 1 normal OBA 0370 Exterior Finishes summary OBA 0380 Close- In Phase Begins 0 start milestone OBA 0390 Building Enclosed 0 finish milestone OBA 0400 Brick summary OBA 0410 Assemble Brick Samples 0 start milestone OBA 0420 Review and Approve Brick Samples 10 normal OBA 0430 Prepare and Solicit Bids for Brick Exterior 3 normal OBA 0440 Review Bids for Brick 3 normal OBA 0450 Award Contract for Brick 1 normal OBA 0460 Deliver Brick 1 normal OBA 0470 Brick Exterior Walls 7 normal OBA 0480 Roof summary OBA 0490 Insulation and Built- up Roofing 10 normal OBA 0500 Doors and Windows summary OBA 0510 Install Door and Window Frames 1 normal OBA 0520 Install Exterior Doors and Windows 2 normal OBA 0530 Interior Finishes summary
16 OBA 0540 Drywall in Offices 15 normal OBA 0550 Touch- up and Clean- up 1 normal OBA 0560 Finishes Complete 0 finish milestone OBA 0570 Punch List 2 Normal OBA 0580 Building Addition Complete 0 Finish milestone
4.4 Activity Relationships Our list of Activities is ready however there seems to be no logic to this plan. Let us define relationships between activities which will give the network its logic.
Name (Activity ID) Description Predecessors Relationship Lag (Days) OBA 0000 Office Building Addition OBA 0010 Design and Engineering OBA 0020 Start Office Building Addition Project
OBA 0030 Design Building Addition OBA 0020 FS 0 OBA 0040 Review and Approve Designs OBA 0030 FS 0 OBA 0050 Review Technical Data for Heat Pump OBA 0040 FS 0 OBA 0060 Foundation OBA 0070 Begin Building Construction OBA 0040 FS 0 OBA 0080 Site Preparation OBA 0070 SS 0
17 OBA 0090 Excavation OBA 0080 FS 0 OBA 0100 Install Underground Water Lines OBA 0090 FS 0 OBA 0110 Install Underground Electric Conduit OBA 0090 FS 0 OBA 0110 FS 0 OBA 0120 Form/ Pour Concrete Footings OBA 0100 FS 0 OBA 0130 Concrete Foundation Walls OBA 0120 FS 0 OBA 0140 Form and Pour Slab OBA 0130 FS 0 OBA 0150 Backfill and Compact Walls OBA 0140 FS 0 OBA 0160 Foundation Phase Complete OBA 0150 FS 0 OBA 0170 Structure OBA 0180 Erect Structural Frame OBA 0150 FS 0 OBA 0190 Begin Structural Phase OBA 0180 FS 0 OBA 0200 Floor Decking OBA 0180 FS 0 OBA 0210 Concrete First Floor OBA 0200 FS 0 OBA 0220 Erect Stairwell and Elevator Walls OBA 0210 FS 0 OBA 0230 Concrete Basement Slab OBA 0210 FS 0 OBA 0240 Concrete Second Floor OBA 0210 FS 0 OBA 0240 FS 0 OBA 0230 FS 0 OBA 0250 Structure Complete OBA 0220 FS 0 OBA 0260 Mechanical/ Electrical Systems
18 OBA 0270 Rough- In Phase Begins OBA 0330 FS 0 OBA 0050 FS 0 OBA 0390 FS 0 OBA 0270 FS 0 OBA 0330 FS 0 OBA 0300 FS 0 OBA 0280 Rough In Complete OBA 0360 FS 0 OBA 0290 Elevator OBA 0220 FS 0 OBA 0300 Install Elevator Rails and Equipment OBA 0270 FS 0 OBA 0390 FS 0 OBA 0310 Install Elevator Cab and Finishes OBA 0280 FS 0 OBA 0320 Plumbing and Electrical OBA 0330 Set Mechanical and Electrical Equipment OBA 0210 SS 7 OBA 0340 Rough- In Plumbing/ Piping OBA 0330 FS 4 OBA 0390 FS 0 OBA 0350 Install Wiring and Cable OBA 0340 SS 5 OBA 0050 FS 0 OBA 0390 FS 0 OBA 0330 FS 0 OBA 0360 Connect Equipment OBA 0350 FS 0 OBA 0370 Exterior Finishes OBA 0380 Close- In Phase Begins OBA 0470 FS 0 OBA 0490 FS 0 OBA 0390 Building Enclosed OBA 0520 FS 0 OBA 0400 Brick OBA 0410 Assemble Brick Samples OBA 0040 FS 0 OBA 0420 Review and Approve Brick Samples OBA 0410 FS 0
19 OBA 0430 Prepare and Solicit Bids for Brick Exterior OBA 0420 FS 0 OBA 0440 Review Bids for Brick OBA 0430 FS 0 OBA 0450 Award Contract for Brick OBA 0440 FS 0 OBA 0460 Deliver Brick OBA 0450 FS 0 OBA 0460 FS 0 OBA 0470 Brick Exterior Walls OBA 0250 FS 0 OBA 0480 Roof OBA 0470 FS 0 OBA 0490 Insulation and Built- up Roofing OBA 0520 FF 0 OBA 0500 Doors and Windows OBA 0510 Install Door and Window Frames OBA 0470 SS 5 OBA 0520 Install Exterior Doors and Windows OBA 0510 FS 0 OBA 0530 Interior Finishes OBA 0390 FS 0 OBA 0540 Drywall in Offices OBA 0280 FS 0 OBA 0040 FS 0 OBA 0540 SS 7 OBA 0550 Touch- up and Clean- up OBA 0310 FS 0 OBA 0560 Finishes Complete OBA 0550 FS 0 OBA 0570 Punch List OBA 0560 FS 0 OBA 0570 FS 0 OBA 0580 Building Addition Complete OBA 0540 FS 0
20 4.5 Creating a calendar for work 1. Click on Plan.
2. Click on Calendars.
3. Click on New.
4. Enter Calendar name.
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5. Customize the working days as required. You may follow instructions from your tutor.
22 4.6 Resource Definition Let us define some resources for our case study.
1. Click on Plan.
2. Click on Resources.
3. Create the following resources.
23 4.7 Resource Assignments Assign the resources as given in the following table: Name (Activity ID) Description Resource Units OBA 0030 Design Building Addition CIVENG 1 OBA 0080 Site Preparation LABOURER CRANE 10 1 OBA 0090 Excavation LABOURER CRANE 10 1 OBA 0120 Form/ Pour Concrete Footings CEMENT LABOURER 200 5 OBA 0150 Backfill and Compact Walls CEMENT LABOURER 100 5 OBA 0220 Concrete First Floor CRANE LABOURER CEMENT 1 7 150 OBA 0230 Concrete Basement Slab CEMENT LABOURER 150 5 OBA 0240 Concrete Second Floor CEMENT LABOURER 125 5 OBA 0470 Brick Exterior Walls LABOURER BRICKS 5 1000
24 PE R T M A S T E R s R I S K A N A L Y S I S T O O L S Now once our project plan is ready let us start identifying risks & continue further analysis.
5.1 Duration Risk Add the following Duration Risks. Name (Activity ID) Description Distribution type Minimum Most Likely Maximum OBA 0030 Design Building Addition Triangle 18d 23d 25d OBA 0040 Review and Approve Designs Triangle 9d 9d 13d OBA 0050 Review Technical Data for Heat Pump Triangle 13d 13d 17d OBA 0080 Site Preparation Trigen 16d(15) 18d 25d(90) OBA 0090 Excavation Trigen 9d(10) 10d 15d(75) OBA 0120 Form/ Pour Concrete Footings BetaPert 8d 10d 14d OBA 0130 Concrete Foundation Walls Triangle 8d 10d 13d OBA 0200 Floor Decking Triangle 13d 14d 18d OBA 0210 Concrete First Floor Triangle 12d 15d 20d
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25 C u m u l a t i v e
F r e q u e n c y H i t s 0 22 44 66 88 110 Distribution (start of interval) 28/Mar/08 15:00 11/Apr/08 16:30 26/Apr/0809:30 10/May/08 11:00 5% 07/Apr/0811:30 10% 09/Apr/0812:00 15% 10/Apr/0814:30 20% 12/Apr/0809:30 25% 12/Apr/0816:30 30% 14/Apr/0816:00 35% 15/Apr/0815:30 40% 16/Apr/0814:30 45% 17/Apr/0814:30 50% 18/Apr/0812:30 55% 19/Apr/0811:00 60% 21/Apr/0809:30 65% 22/Apr/0809:30 70% 22/Apr/0817:30 75% 23/Apr/0817:00 80% 24/Apr/0816:30 85% 26/Apr/0809:30 90% 28/Apr/0812:30 95% 30/Apr/0813:00 100% 10/May/08 12:30 Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 200 iterations (variation <0.1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 277 iterations (variation <0.1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: 28/Mar/08 15:30 Maximum: 10/May/08 12:30 Mean: 18/Apr/08 15:00 MaxHits: 122 Std Deviation: 124.7 Selected Confidence 60%: 21/Apr/08 09:30 Deterministic Finish: 09/Apr/08 15:30 Probability 12% Office Building Addition Entire Plan : Finish Date KLG SYSTEL LIMITED You may now run the Risk Analysis!! Your Risk Histogram should look similar to the one shown below.
5.2 Task Resource Risk The cost of certain resources are not always known quantities, hence risk distribution of such resources needs to be modeled. 1. Click on Risk
26 2. Click on Risk On for sub resource
Sometimes the quantity of a material resource required may be uncertain. We need to model such cases too!
27 5.3 Task Existence Risk Imagine a situation wherein there are 75 % chances that during excavation ground water may be found.
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Rules for Task Existence: 1. If the Keep Links to other tasks option is selected and the task does not exist then its duration is set to zero & any resource requirements are set to zero. The effect of its duration & resources on the project is therefore removed. 2. If the Remove Links to other tasks option is selected and the task does not exist then it is ignored Ignoring a task removes the task & all preceding & succeeding links. (This may arouse a situation wherein there may be open ends in project in a particular iteration).
29 5.4 Probabilistic Branching Probabilistic branching allows you to model the risk of outcomes occurring in a project. It is used when the outcomes are exclusive, i.e. only one of the many outcomes occurs Imagine a situation wherein there are chances that archaeological remains may be found while excavating. In such case the following probable outcomes are probable: a. Archaeological remains found that needs expert removal (50% chance; duration= 10d; cost= Rs 5000) b. Archaeological remains found which do not need expert removal (50% chance; duration= 0d; cost= Rs. 0) Now we need to modify the existing plan as shown below.
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Rules for Probabilistic branching: 1. Succeeding tasks can have a probability of 100%. 2. When there are two or more succeeding tasks with less than 100% probability, all of those probabilities must add up to 100%. 3. If there is only one task with a probability less than 100%, then it can have any probability. 4. A task that has more than one predecessor has to have a probability of 100% (such tasks are shown with an * mark on the Risks-Probabilistic Branch tab.
31 5.5 Probabilistic Links Probabilistic links allow you to model the probability of a link between two tasks existing or not existing. Select the task Structure Complete. Add the probabilistic link risk to its predecessors as shown below.
Rules for Probabilistic Links: 1. Preceding links can have a probability of 100%. 2. When there are two or more preceding links with less than 100% probability, all of those probabilities must add up to 100%. (If one happens the others dont) 3. If there is only one link with a probability less than 100%, then it can have any probability
32 RE P O R T S 6.1 Risk Histograms
Click on Risk/ Histogram View.
Chapter 6
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You can view the histograms for various parameters of the project or even selected tasks, viz., Durations, Start Dates, Finish Dates, Float, Cost, etc.
34 6.2 Tornado Graphs Tornado graphs ar used to display & rank Sensitivity, Schedule Sensivity Index, Criticality & Cruciality values.
35 26/Mar/08 15:00 03/Apr/08 16:00 11/Apr/08 17:00 20/Apr/08 09:30 28/Apr/08 10:30 Entire Plan Finish Rs634,632 Rs661,373 Rs688,113 Rs714,854 Rs741,595 Rs768,336 Rs795,077 Rs821,817 Rs848,558 Rs875,299 E n t i r e
P l a n
C o s t Office Building Addition Scatter Plot KLG SYSTEL LIMITED Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Correlation Pearson's 72.1% Spearman's 71.7% 6.3 Scatter Plot The scatter plot shows the relationship between two outputs of a risk analysis. Each point on the scatter plot represents two values for one iteration of the risk analysis. The total number of points is equal to the number of iterations that were run in the risk analysis. The example below shows the relationship between the time and cost of the plan. In this example it shows that the time to finish the plan is correlated to the cost of the plan (i.e. as the time to complete the project increases so does the cost). The level of correlation between the inputs is indicated by the Pearson's and Spearman's correlation indices shown to the right of the report.
36 6.4 Schedule Check Report
37
6.5 Summary Risk Reports
Click on Reports/ Summary Risk Report
38 UT I L I T I E S 7.1 Importing Pre build Plans Click on File/ Import Plan
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39
Select the source file format
40 7.2 Exporting Pertmaster plans
The plan to be exported should be open. Click on File/ Export Plan
41 Select the destination & format for the output file.
42 RI S K R E G I S T E R Open the Risk register & add the following risks to the register Chapter 8
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In the Mitigation Tab, add the following mitigation plan & post mitigation scoring for the risk Board Approvals Delayed.
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Click on the waterfall chart tab. This will show the risk score plotted against time.
Click on the Quantitative Tab. Click on the Pre-Mitigated tab. Click on the Risk View Tab. Select the risk Board Approval Delayed. In the right hand pane select the task OBA 0040. The risk is now mapped to the task.
Clicking on the quantified tab will allow you to edit the grayed parameters. You may also build Pre- Mitigated & Post Mitigated plans. Follow instructions from your tutor.