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Valuation multiples
A reading prepared by Pamela Peterson Drake
James Madison University
Table of Contents
Introduction........................................................................................................................................ 1
Understanding the use of multiples ...................................................................................................... 1
Identifying the comparables ................................................................................................................ 1
Choosing a multiple ............................................................................................................................. 2
Price-earnings ratio .......................................................................................................................... 3
Price-book ratio ............................................................................................................................... 4
Price-sales ratio ............................................................................................................................... 5
Price-cash flow ratio ........................................................................................................................ 6
PEG ratio ......................................................................................................................................... 6
Calculating the multiples .................................................................................................................. 7
Adjusting for differences in accounting ................................................................................................. 7
Applying the multiples ......................................................................................................................... 8
Issues multiples .................................................................................................................................. 8
To average or not to average?.......................................................................................................... 8
Problems with the denominator ........................................................................................................ 9
The Moldovsky effect ..................................................................................................................... 10
Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 12
For further information ...................................................................................................................... 12
Index ............................................................................................................................................... 12
1
Introduction
There are many approaches to valuing a company, a division, or any other business unit, including
discounted cash flows methods and valuation multiples. The discounted cash flow methods require
estimates of cash flows for a number of periods into the future, a discount rate that reflects the riskiness
of these cash flows, and either an assumption regarding the growth rate of cash flows into the future or
a terminal or horizon value of the business unit at some point in the future. The valuation multiples
require selection of a comparable or comparable businesses units and a multiple or set of multiples for
valuation, such as a price-earnings ratio. The focus of this reading is on the valuation multiples
approach.
Understanding the use of multiples
The process of valuation using multiples requires
the use of information on comparable firms, some
adjustments to improve comparability, and then the
application of the multiple derived from the
comparable firms to the subject firm, as shown in
Exhibit 1.
This process will lead to an estimate of value for a
company which is just that: an estimate. As you
can see in Exhibit 1, this process involves a great
deal of guess-work along the way, such that errors
in estimates are compounded. A prudent approach
is to use more than one multiple, evaluate the
sensitivity of the estimates to the choice of
comparables, and consider the amount of error that
is present in the estimates.
Identifying the comparables
To make comparisons, the analyst most likely will want to compare the firm with other firms. But
identifying the other firms in the same or similar lines of business presents a challenge. A system that has
been used for many years for classifying firms by lines of business is the Standard Industrial Classification
(SIC) system, which was developed by the Office of Management and Budget. However, starting in 1997,
another classification system, North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) replaces SIC codes
with a system that better represents the current lines of business. Using the NAICS, we can classify a
firm and then compare this firm with other of that class.
Classifying firms into industry groups is difficult because most firms have more than one line of business.
Most large corporations operate in several lines of business. Do we classify a firm into an industry by the
line of business that represents:
The most sales revenue generated?
The greatest investment in assets?
The greatest share of the firm's profits?
It is not clear which is the most appropriate method and a firm may be classified into different industries
by different financial services and analysts.
Exhibit 1 Valuation using multiples
Identify comparable firms and determine
values from market data
Adjust values for different accounting
methods
Calculate the multiple based on the
comparable firms base and values
Estimate the base of the multiple for the
subject business unit or company
Apply the multiple from the comparables
to the subject business unit or company
2
When identifying comparables, it is important to identify, if possible, companies that are most similar
according to a number of dimensions:
Line of business and, specifically, products
Asset size
Number of employees
Growth in revenues and earnings
Cash flow
Often, when we evaluate a company that is not publicly-traded, we are comparing a smaller company
with larger, publicly-traded companies. Therefore, it is often difficult to match up the subject company
with a similar-size company in terms of assets and number of employees. However, matching up on as
many factors as possible is useful, especially with respect to the line of business.
Consider the 2005 fiscal year data of a company that is the subject of a valuation:
Line of business Confectionary
Total assets $300 million
Book value of equity $200 million
Revenues $600 million
Earnings $90 million
Cash flow from operations $110 million
Growth in revenues 7% per year
Growth in earnings 9% per year
Number of employees 2,500
Now consider publicly-traded companies in the confectionary industry, using fiscal year 2005 values:
Hershey Tootsie Roll Wm. Wrigley
Total assets $4,295.2 million $813.7 million $4,460.2 million
Book value of shareholders equity $1,021.1 million $617.4 million $2,214.4 million
Revenues $4,836.0 million $487.7 million $4,159.3 million
Earnings $493.2 million $77.2 million $517.3 million
Cash flow from operations $461.8 million $82.5 million $757.6 million
Growth in revenues 5.5% 5.5% 9%
Growth in earnings 10% 6.50% 10%
Number of employees 40,523 1,950 43,555
Which firm is most comparable? Tootsie Roll is the smallest of the three possible comparables, but is it
the most comparable in other dimensions? Should we take an average of the three companies values in
some way? Should we restrict the comparables to U.S. companies, or should we expand the eligible
companies to include Lindt & Sprngli or Nestl?
While the choice of comparables is important, analysts will also examine the sensitivity of their valuation
to the choice of the comparable and develop a range of estimates based on alternative comparables.
Choosing a multiple
There are a large number of multiples that an analyst can apply in a valuation situation. These multiples
include the price-earnings ratio, the price-book ratio, and the price-sales ratio. In addition, we may want
to compare PEG ratios as well
3
Price-earnings ratio
The price-earnings ratio, also referred to as the PE or P/E ratio, is simply the ratio of the market
value of the stock to the earnings or net income:
Market value of equity
Market value-earnings ratio =
Net income
We can also restate the price-earnings ratio in the more familiar, but numerically equivalent, per-share
basis as the ratio of the price of a share of stock to the earnings per share:
Market price per share
Price-earnings ratio =
Earnings per share
But it really is not as simple as that:
Do we use earnings for the most recent four quarters of earnings? This is referred to as the
trailing PE.
Or do we use forecasted earnings? This is referred to as the leading PE.
The most important issue is that you are consistent. When you gather the information for the
comparables, you should make sure that the multiples are determined in the same manner and then
applied consistently to the subject company. For example, many analysts remove non-recurring items
from earnings before calculating this ratio so that we get a better picture of the underlying earnings of a
company. When using price-earnings ratios calculated from a third party, it is important to understand
how these ratios are calculated:
Before or after extraordinary earnings?
Leading or trailing earnings?
The price-earnings ratio is considered useful in valuation because earnings are a primary driver in a
companys value. In cases in which a company does not have positive earnings, however, the price-
earnings ratio cannot be used, and in cases in which a company has volatile earnings, the price-earnings
ratio as a multiple may not be very reliable.
We can relate the price-earnings ratio to fundamental factors using the familiar dividend valuation model:
4
0
t
Let
P = Price per share at time 0,
D = Dividend per share at the end of period t,
g = Expected growth rate of dividends, and
r = Required rate of return.
Starting with the dividend valuation m
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
odel,
D (1+g) D
P = =
r-g r-g
D
Recognizing that the dividend payout ratio is , where E is earnings per share, and
E
D
substituting E for D ,
E
D
E (1+g)
E
P = .
r-g
Dividing by earnings per share,
0
0
0
0
0
E ,
D
(1+g)
E
Dividend payout ratio (1+g) P
= = .
E
r-g r-g
We see from this that the price-earnings ratio is related to the dividend payout ratio and the
plowback ratio (which is the complement of the dividend payout ratio), expected growth, and the
required rate of return.
1
Price-book ratio
The price-book ratio, or price-to-book ratio, is the ratio of the market value of the equity to the
book value of equity:
2
Market value of equity
Market value-book ratio =
Book value of equity
We can also phrase this in terms on a per-share basis as the ratio of the market price per share of a
stock to the book value of equity per share:
Market price per share
Price-to-book ratio =
Book value of equity per share
This ratio is also known as the price-equity ratio.
The ratio captures the value that investors place on the companys equity. In cases in which a company
has negative earnings, and hence the price-earnings ratio is meaningless, the price-book ratio may be
used as long as equity is positive. However, because the book value of a companys assets will not often
1
The dividend payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. The plowback ratio, representing the proportion of
earnings reinvested into the firm, is one minus the dividend payout ratio.
2
The book value of equity in these ratios refers to common shareholders equity, which is total shareholders
equity less any preferred stock equity. Some analysts use only tangible book equity, which is the book value of
common equity less the book value of intangibles assets.
5
be equivalent to the true value of its assets, this ratio may not be very meaningful for some companies.
For example, pharmaceutical companies have many patents on drugs, the value of which is not reflected
in the book value of assets and, hence, the book value of equity.
For investors who use a strategy of value investing, this ratio is often used to identify firms: low price-
to-book stocks are typically viewed as under-priced value stocks. However, this may not be a correct
assessment because companies with financial problems often have low price-to-book ratios.
We can relate the price-book ratio to fundamental factors using the familiar dividend valuation model:
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
Starting with the dividend valuation model,
D (1+g) D
P = =
r-g r-g
D
Recognizing that the dividend payout ratio is , where E is earnings per share, and
E
D
substituting E for D ,
E
D
E (1+
E
P =
0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0
0
g)
.
r-g
Dividing by the book value of equity per share, B ,
E D D
(1+g) Return on equity (1+g)
B E E
P
= = .
B
r-g r-g
We see that the price-book ratio is related to the fundamentals of the return on equity (earnings
divided by the book value of equity), the plowback ratio, the expected growth rate, and the required rate
of return.
Price-sales ratio
The price-sales ratio, or price-to-sales ratio or PSR, is the ratio of the market value of the equity to
the companys revenues for the period:
Market value of equity
Market value-sales ratio =
Revenues
We can also phrase this in terms on a per-share basis as the ratio of the market price per share of a
stock to the sales per share:
Market price per share
Price-sales ratio =
Revenues per share
The price-sales ratio permits comparisons among companies without the issue of dealing with different
accounting methods. This ratio also allows comparisons among companies that generate losses, in which
the price-earnings ratio is not applicable. For example, if there is year for, say, airlines in which most or
all airlines generate losses, the price-sales ratio gives us an idea of the valuation that investors apply to
revenue generation. The price-sales ratio may not reflect valuation comparatively if companies have
different cost structures, however.
6
A variation on this ratio is to include the market value of debt along with the market value of equity in
the numerator. This allows more comparability among companies that have different capital structures.
We can relate the price-sales ratio to fundamental factors using the familiar dividend valuation model:
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
Starting with the dividend valuation model,
D (1+g) D
P = =
r-g r-g
D
Recognizing that the dividend payout ratio is , where E is earnings per share, and
E
D
substituting E for D ,
E
D
E (1+
E
P =
0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0
0
g)
.
r-g
Dividing by sales per share, S ,
E D D
(1+g) Net profit margin (1+g)
S E E
P
= = .
S
r-g r-g
We see through this decomposition of the value of a share that the price-sales ratio is related to the
fundamentals of the net profit margin (through the inverse of earnings divided by sales), the plowback
ratio, expected growth, and the required rate of return.
Price-cash flow ratio
The price-cash flow ratio, or price-to-cash flow ratio, is the ratio of the market value of the equity
to the companys cash flow for the period:
share per flow Cash
share per Price
flows Cash
equity of value Market
ratio flow cash - Price
There are several variants of the cash flow amount that is used. These variations include:
Simplified cash flow, which is earnings plus depreciation, amortization and depletion;
Cash flow from operations, from the statement of cash flows; and
Free cash flow, which is often calculated as cash flow from operations, less capital
expenditures, plus net borrowings.
PEG ratio
The PEG ratio is the ratio of the price-earnings ratio to the growth rate of earnings:
(expressed as a whole number)
PE ratio
PEG ratio =
Growth rate of earnings
7
The PEG ratio considers the companys expected growth directly by comparing the markets multiple
applied to earnings with the growth rate anticipated by the analyst. Effectively, this ratio is a comparison
of the markets assessment of the companys growth to that of the analyst. Though in most applications
the PEG ratio is calculated using anticipated growth, in valuation situations of a non-publicly-traded
company it may not be possible to estimate the future growth rate, but rather it may be possible to look
at the recent or historical growth rate of the companies.
The general belief is that if a companys price-earnings ratio is approximately equal to the companys
earnings growth rate hence a PEG ratio of 1.0 -- the stock is appropriately priced; if the PEG ratio is
lower than one, this implies that the stock is under-priced, whereas if the PEG ratio is greater than one,
this implies that the stock is over-priced.
Calculating the multiples
For publicly-traded stocks the data used in the multiples is easy to obtain from the financial statements
and financial websites. For 2005, the comparable companies have the following data and multiples:
Hershey Tootsie Roll Wm. Wrigley Average
Market price per share 3/31/2006* $52.23 $29.27 $64.00
Market price per share 12/31/2005* $55.25 $28.93 $66.49
Number of shares outstanding