1NC Security K

Food security rhetoric exacerbates hunger and causes resource grabs

Shepherd 12 -- PhD candidate within the Food Security in Asia research programme funded by the MacArthur Foundation
at the Centre for Internationa Security Studies! "ni#ersity of Sydney! participating in the Food Security and Food So#ereignty in
the Midde $ast research programme at the Center for Internationa and %egiona Studies! &eorgetown "ni#ersity Schoo of Foreign
Ser#ice in 'atar ()en*amin! +,-,./0.! 12hin3ing criticay about food security!1 Security Diaogue 45(56! Sage6
A conse7uence of casting food security as an a#aiabiity probem is that actors use food-security anguage to
egitimi8e competition o#er increasingy scarce food -production resources 9 2he underying
impication is that controing or hoarding of resources must be good : howe#er! contro and
hoarding by some in#ariaby impies exclusion and deprivation for others9 Food-security anguage
has become widey empoyed as a way of pursuing particuar agendas and egitimi8ing particuar
actions! especiay those of powerfu actors! but at the e;pense of others9 Food-security anguage is
used to egitimi8e the securing of rights o#er agricutura and s (Ashareef! .//<: Peopes %epubic of China!
.//-6! which one African schoars described as a dubious way to so#e the food security conundrum in $thiopia! noting that it
seems parado;ica that one of the most #unerabe countries in the word is handing o#er #ast and and water resources to foreign
in#estors to hep food security efforts of their home countries9. It is used by transnationa agribusiness
corporations in the egitimi8ation of their profit-generating acti#ities (ArcherDaniesMidand! ./0/:
Cargi! ./0/: Monsanto! ./0/6! which range from the corporati8ation and amagamation of farmands = sometimes pushing
sma- and medium-si8ed andhoders off their farms = to the pursuit of re#enues from patented inputs that ha#e
been argued to be detrimenta to poor farmers in de#eoping countries (>ot-&imine8! ./00: Pate! .//?: Shi#a! .//.! .//@! .//?69
It is used to *ustify the pursuit of specuati#e profit by weathy in#estors ($merging Asset Management!
./0/69 It is aso used in the pursuit of poitica agendas = for e;ampe! in concert with the subsidi8ing of eectoray
sensiti#e rura constituencies ("SDA! ./0/: Phipott! .//+6 or! contrariy! pro#iding an argument for the reduction of trade barriers
in the 7uest for greater access to foreign mar3ets9 For e;ampe! the officia Austraian food-security poicy position is that de#eoping
countries must reduce trade barriers in preference to supporting oca food producers95 2his pri#ieges Austraias ma*or agricutura
e;porters o#er the agrarian poor in the de#eoping countries9 In such ways! the current paradigm of food security is used to pri#iege
the interests of certain actors! often at the e;pense of others! incuding those at ris3 from the inabiity to access ade7uate food9 2he
commandeering of food-security anguage heps e;pain the contradiction that! whie it is ostensiby about hunger
(achie#ing sufficient food for a peope at a times6! food security has instead become a game for powerfu
actors competing for ad#antage (profit or scarce resources such as agricutura and6 in a n increasingy
resource-constrained word 9 Ane response to this has been the idea of food so#ereignty! promugated by grassroots
organi8ations such as Ba Cia Campesina! which argues that peope shoud ha#e the right to ta3e contro of their own choices o#er
food and its pro#enance9 Food so#ereignty has been put forward as a centra eement of attempts to frame food as a new human and
i#eihood security chaenge (Spring! .//<D 4?069 A core strength of the concept is its emphasis on the democrati8ation and
ocai8ation of food-producing resources and distribution of production! howe#er a substantia wea3ness is that the concept is
e7uay open to usurpation by powerfu payers in the goba food regime9 &o#ernments are now starting to use food-so#ereignty
anguage to egitimi8e their efforts to secure contro o#er food suppies and food-producing resources9 In recent meetings with the
author! for e;ampe! poicyma3ers from se#era &uf Cooperation Counci member-states referred to food so#ereignty as the
rationae behind their respecti#e go#ernments efforts to pursue certain food-security strategies94 Strategies to address the
probem of hunger shoud discourage this 3ind of co-opting and instead attempt to chaenge such
actors to engage in the process of tac3ing the fundamental issues 9 Moreo#er! gi#en the rise of neo-
Mathusian fears! the inabiity of e;isting food-security strategies to address hunger shoud prompt a
search for aternati#es9 Indeed! e#en if the insecurity of hunger had been ade7uatey addressed in the
past! that woud not mean that the same strategies woud continue to be ade7uate for a high-
popuation future9@ Commentators are aready fagging stress and potentia confict as a resut of increasingy tight goba food
suppies (IISS! ./0069 It is a reasonabe premise that if the word cannot o#ercome the probem of widespread hunger when there is
surpus production capacity! then finding soutions wi become increasingy fraught as constraints become tighter! the desire to
resort to competiti#e securing of food resources increases and ris3s of #ioent confict o#er food resources intensify9
Environmental apocalypticism causes ecoauthoritarianism and mass violence
against those deemed environmental threats also causes political apathy
!hich turns case
"uell # Frederic3Ecutura critic on the en#ironmenta crisis and a Professor of $ngish at 'ueens Coege and the author of fi#e
boo3s! From Apocalypse To Way of Life, pages 0-@-0-+
Boo3ed at criticay! then! crisis discourse thus suffers from a number of iabiities9 First! it seems
to ha#e become a poitica iabiity amost as much as an asset9 It cas up a fierce and
effecti#e opposition with its predictions: worse! its more specific predictions are a too
#unerabe to refutation by e#ents9 It aso e;poses en#ironmentaists to being caed grim
doomsters and antiife Puritan e;tremists9 Further! concern with crisis has a too often
tempted peope to try to find a F total solution G to the probems in#o#edE a phrase that! as
an astute anayst of the imitations of crisis discourse! Hohn )arry! puts it! is a too
reminiscent of the 2hird %eichs infamous F final solution 9G@@ A tota crisis of societyE
en#ironmenta crisis at its gra#estE threatens to transate despair into inhumanist
authoritarianism: more often! howe#er! it heps 3eep merey dysfunctiona authority in pace9 It thus eads! )arry
suggests! to the beief that ony eite - and e;pert-ed soutions are possibe 9@+ At the same time it
depoitici8es peope! inducing them to accept their impotence as indi#iduas: this is something that has made many
peope today fee! ironicay and,or passi#ey! that since it ma3es no difference at a what any indi#idua
does on his or her own ! one might as we go aong with it9 Iet another pitfa for the fu and sustained eaboration of
en#ironmenta crisis is! though east discussed! perhaps the most deepy ironic9 A probem with deep cutura and psychoogica
as we as socia effects! it is embodied in a startingy simpe propositionD the worse one fees en#ironmenta
crisis is! the more one is tempted to turn ones bac3 on the en#ironment9 2his means!
preeminenty! turning ones bac3 on FnatureGEon traditions of nature feeing! traditions of 3nowedge about
nature (ones that range from organic farming techni7ues to the different departments of ecoogica science6! and traditions
of nature-based acti#ism9 If nature is thoroughy wrec3ed these days! peope need to dein3
from nature and i#e in postnatureEa concusion that! as the ne;t chapter shows! many in "9S9 society drew at the
end of the mienium9 $;porations of how deepy FnatureG has been wounded and how intensey
#unerabe to and dependent on human actions it is can thus ead! ironicay! to further indifference to nature-
based en#ironmenta issues! not greater concern with them 9 )ut what 7uic3y becomes e#ident to any
refecti#e consideration of the difficuties of crisis discourse is that a of these iabiities are in fact bound
tighty up with one specific notion of en#ironmenta crisisEwith 0<+/s- and 0<?/s-stye en#ironmenta
apocaypticism9 $;cessi#e concern about them does not recogni8e that crisis discourse as a whoe has significanty
changed since the 0<?/s9 2hey remain inducements to oo3 away from serious refection on en#ironmenta crisis ony if one
does not e;pore how en#ironmenta crisis has turned of ate from apocaypse to dweing pace9 2he apocayptic mode
had a number of prominent features D it was preoccupied with running out and running into was: with scarcity
and with the imminent rupture of imits: with actions that promised and temporay predicted imminent
tota metdown: and with (often! though not aways6 the need for immediate F total solution 9G
$hus doomsterism !as its reigning mode % ecoauthoritarianism was a gra#e
temptation : and as crisis was eaborated to show more and more se#ere deformations of nature! temptation
increased to refute it! or gi#e up! or e#en cut off ties to ceary termina Fnature9G
&ater scarcity scenario planning creates a selffulfilling prophecy and reactionary
militari'ation(ensures violent reactions that turn the case and cause
global !ars(only the alt solves the root cause
)uslits 11 )ayy &usits Poitica Science Department "ni#ersity of Jestern Antario F2he Jar on JaterD Internationa Jater
SecurityG February .-! ./00httpD,,centreforforeignpoicystudies9da9ca,pdf,gradsymp00,&usits9pdf
2he word is facing a water crisis! but there is sti much that can be done to address the probems causing the emergency9 First!
1 securiti8ation1 of the water crisis can become a sef-fufiing prophecy if it is not approached
from a hoistic #iewpoint that ta3es into consideration ecoogica! human and state water security needs9 If
academics and poicyma3ers continue to debate o#er whether the 1water wars1 scenario wi
e#er come true! states may ta3e this as a cue to securiti8e and miitari8e their water resources !
and this wi certainy ead to poitica and e#en #ioent confict 9 >owe#er! if instead poicyma3ers and
go#ernment eadership use a hoistic and dipomatic approach to address ecoogica and human water needs sustainaby!
internationa water security can be achie#ed9 Jhether this approach is branded a 1post-security1 or 1en#ironmenta security1
paradigm! the ultimate goal ies in changing poicy and practice to address the root causes of
water scarcity ! and thus ensure water a#aiabiity for en#ironmenta and anthropogenic
purposes9
Framing climate change in terms of security legitimi'es preemptive military
doctrines to *contain+ anticipated threats !hile foreclosing attention to the
institutional drivers of environmental degradation re,ecting the
militari'ation of !arming is a prere-uisite to forging effective political
responses to ecological destruction.
)ilbert 12 K$miy! Director of the Canadian Studies Program in the &raduate Program in
&eography at the "ni#ersity of 2oronto! ACM$D An Internationa $-Hourna for Critica
&eographies! 00(06! F2he Miitari8ation of Cimate Change!G p9 0-0/L
Cimate change has been identified as a top miitary concern9 Je shoud be worried9 In his acceptance
speech for the Mobe Peace Pri8e in December .//<! "S President )arac3 Abama stressed the importance of cimate change to nationa security! and the miitarys growing
interest in the issue9. 2hen! on February 0! ./0/ the "S Pentagon reeased its 'uadrennia Defence %e#iew ('D%6 that incudes! for the first time e#er! cimate change as a
miitary concern959 2he 'D% is a powerfu document that shapes the miitarys operating principes and budgets for the ne;t four years9 2he ./0/ 'D% argues that miitary roes
and missions on the battefied wi need to be reformuated to address changing en#ironmenta conditions9 Cimate change is presented as a
threat mutipier that wi prope food and water scarcity! en#ironmenta degradation! po#erty!
the spread of disease! and mass migration9 $ach of these coud contribute to faied state
scenarios which wi demand miitary inter#ention9 In an earier report of high-ran3ing admiras and generas at the Center for Ma#a
Anayses! upon which the 'D% buids! this threat mutipier effect and faied state scenario is aso directy in3ed to future acts of e;tremism and terrorism (CMA! .//?: see
aso CMA! .//<: Norb et a! .//<: Jarner and Singer! .//<: Parthemore and %ogers! ./0/69 Jhie the "S miitarys interest in cimate change has escaated! it is not aone9 In
.//?! the Austraian Defence Force produced a 0. page study! Cimate Change! the $n#ironment! %esources and Confict that proposed a new roe for the miitary in resource
protection! eg tac3ing iega fishing as fish stoc3s reocate due to the changing cimate9 2wo years ater! a Department of Defence white paper identified cimate change as a
threat mutipier! especiay in the fragie states of its neighbouring South Pacific isands (Austraian &o#ernment! .//<69 In the "N! the DCDC &oba Strategic 2rends
Programme .//?-./5+ reportEissued from within the Ministry of Defence (MoD6 and considered to be a source document for nationa defence poicyEhas asserted a future
roe for miitary engagement in cimate change-reated scenarios around humanitarian and disaster reief! and for protecting oi and gas resources in insecure areas (see aso
MoD! ./0/69 2he DCDC report e#en indicated that inter#ention in outer space might be re7uired so as to mitigate the effects of cimate change! or to harness cimatoogica
features in the support of miitary or strategic ad#antage (MoD .//+D +@69 Ather go#ernments discussing miitari8ation incude &ermany! France! and perhaps aso! secrety!
India and China (Mabey .//?D <69 Miitary e;perts from across Africa! Asia! $urope! Batin America and the "S ha#e issued a *oint statement warning of the impending security
impact of cimate change94 2here was e#en a specia session on FCimate change and the miitaryG organi8ed by the )roo3ings Institution! Chatham >ouse! and the Institute for
$n#ironmenta Security at the CAP0@ meetings in Copenhagen in December .//<9@ Jhat to ma3e of this growing miitary interest in cimate changeO 2here is a ongstanding
iterature that addresses the in3ing of en#ironment and security discourses (eg Na3onen! 0<<4: Deudney! 0<<<: >omer-Di;on! 0<<<: )arnett! .//0! .//+: Daby! .//.! .//<:
Da#is! .//?69 Athough cautionary in their approach! many of these authors suggest that in3ing the two concepts ma3es it possibe to open up 7uestions around both security
and the en#ironment9 %agnhid Mordas and Mis Petter &editsch! for e;ampe! broaden the security debate to address human security! which ta3es account of matters reating to
issues such as migration! disease! food security (Mordas and &editsch! .//?69 Athers argue that hi#ing cimate change to nationa security discourses may ga#ani8e more pubic
interest (Daby! .//<6Esomething that has been attempted with the Nerry-&raham-Bieberman cimate bi in the "S9 )ut whie the iterature on security and en#ironment raises
some important 7uestions! I want to probemati8e both the way that security is being constituted through the miitary! and the concept of the en#ironment that is being
mobii8ed! by paying particuar attention to how miitari8ation is unfoding in the "S9 First! the miitarys interest in cimate change resurrects a
narro! concept of security9 Athough the ./0/ 'D% recogni8es impending concerns associated with human security (eg migration! disease and
food security6! it modes the anticipated confict through a traditiona state-to-state war scenario!
refracted through a neo-Mathusian confict o#er resources (Daby! .//<: >omer-Di;on! 0<<<69 %esource confict
and other cimate change impacts are mapped onto aready #unerabe paces in Sub Saharan
Africa! the Midde $ast! and South and Southeast Asia ()roder! .//<: CMA! .//?: Podesta and Agden! .//?-/-: Jer8 and
Mano#e! .//<6! where! it is argued! they wi act as threat mutipiers that wi escaate into faied
state scenarios9 2his perpetuates a mode whereby the enemy to the nation is esewhere! and
that en#ironmenta threats are something that foreigners do to Americans or to American territory! not as a
resut of domestic poicies ($c3ersey .//<D -?69 In this #ein! the CIA has estabished a Center on Cimate Change and Mationa Security to coect foreign
inteigence on the nationa security impact of en#ironmenta change in other parts of the word9+ 2he bifurcation of domestic security and
e;terna threat reinforces a fiction of territorial and nationalist integrity ! and wor3s
against thin3ing about cimate change as a goba probem with a need for goba responsibiity
and goba soutions (Daby .//<D @/: Deudney 0<<<D 0-<69? Moreo#er! the mode of e;terna threats coheres easiy with
the competitive frame that has been estabished between China and the "S! as they #ie not
ony for economic ascendency and resource-ac7uisition! but aso for energy security and
en#ironmenta poicies and initiati#es9- In this #ein! 2homas Freidman has proposed a miitant green nationaism! something aong the ines of a
triumphaist &reen Mew Dea that wi recapture "S goba hegemony (Friedman! .//<69< Achie#ing this resut re7uires! howe#er! more poitica agreement across "S
Democrats and %epubicans! and it is precisey here that reframing cimate change as a miitary issue seems to be an effecti#e strategy for cross-partisan agreement90/ )ut what
are the costs when miitari8ation becomes necessary to egitimi8e cimate change actionO 2he upshot is that the miitary is aso legitimi'ed ! to the
detriment of forma and informa poitics 9 In a secretive and hierarchical military
frame!or/ there is imited scope for pubic participation or egisati#e debate ("M$P .//?D 4/569 Miitaries
are about the maintenance of eite power ()arnett .//0D .@69 Issues regarding socia *ustice are disregarded in fa#our of
nationa ob*ecti#es! whie the #unerabiities institutionai8ed through cimate change are
perpetuated ()arnett! .//+69 2his is particuary apparent #is-a-#is en#ironmenta refugees! which the Intergo#ernmenta Pane on Cimate Change estimates wi
swe to 0@/ miion by ./@/ (%eu#eny! .//?69 Miitarism encourages the use of force against foreigners! with
barriers erected to exclude those who bear the immediate impact of cimate change ! e#en though they are
usuay the east responsibe for cimate change9 As Pau Smith notes! Aperation Sea Signa! which the "S depoyed in 0<<4 to dea with @/!/// refugees from >aiti and Cuba!
offers an instructi#e e;ampe of how the miitary addresses refugees! most of whom were hed at &uantanamo )ay whie their cases were processed (Smith! .//?69 2he
responses to human tragedy in >aiti and >urricane Natrina! when miitary priorities too3 hod
o#er the immediate needs of the raciai8ed! impo#erished #ictims! spea3s to the dangers of
concocting security threats so that abandonment is prioriti'ed over assistance (&irou;! .//+:
>award! ./0/69 2his is part of a worrisome trend of the rise of an aid-miitary compe; and miitary encroachment on ci#iian-sponsored de#eopment (>artmann ./0/D
.4/69 Finay! the miitarys approach to cimate change does not end itsef to addressing fundamenta
socia structures that perpetuate en#ironmenta degradationD oi dependency! oi cooniaism! and the deepening internationa
fragmentation of rich and poor9 2he conditions that entrench insecurity are thus left unchallenged 9 %ather!
attention is directed to ong term defensi#e panning and ris3 scenarios around potentia
disaster outcomes with the miitary presented as the ony! or simpy the best and most capabe!
institution for deaing with the scope of the ad#ersity ('D% ./0/D -+69 Since %obert Napans poemic 2he Coming Anarchy! much
of the iterature in#o3es simiar disaster scenarios (Napan! 0<<4! see aso .//-: Schwart8 and %anda! .//5: Campbe et a! .//?: Dwyer! .//-69 Security
e;ercises are used to mode these disasters: eg a .//- e;ercise at the Mationa Defense "ni#ersity in Jashington that anticipated that refugees
escaping fooding in )angadesh woud ead to reigious and poitica confict at the Indian border (Jer8 and Mano#e! .//<69 &orst possible
outcomes are thus anticipated! and they these become the basis for actions in the present (de &oede
.//-D 0@<69 As Meinda Cooper writes #is-a-#is the worst-case security scenarios of the Schwart8 and %anda report! It recommends that we inter#ene in the conditions of
emergence of the future before it gets a chance to befa us: that we ma3e an attempt to uneash transformati#e e#ents on a biospheric scae before we get dragged away by
natures own acts of emergence (Cooper .//+D 0.+69 Coopers argument introduces my second concern regarding the miitari8ation of cimate changeD the ways that the
en#ironment is being mobii8ed9 As noted abo#e! the focus on resource wars casts the en#ironment as a hostie power
($c3ersey .//<D -?69 Ar! scarcity and degradation are *naturalised0+ whie institutiona causes are
obscured (>artmann ./0/D .5@69 $ither way! nature is an e;ternaity to be managed as the resurrection of the concept of the commons
in these debates affirms (see Posen! .//569 Ad#ocacy groups and go#ernment representati#es ai3e are using the commons to inform their perspecti#es on cimate change
security9 Abraham Denmar3 and Hames Mu#enon e;picity deineate the concepts egacy to &arrett >ardins contro#ersia piece! 2he tragedy of the commons! and his
argument that Freedom in a commons brings ruins to a (Denmar3 and Mu#enon ./0/D ?--69 %ather than pri#ati8ation! the contemporary #ersion of
the poemic posits that miitary force is necessary to pre#ent the misuse and abuse of na#igabe
passageways9 In a web artice entited 2he Contested Commons that is in3ed to the 'D%./0/! "ndersecretary of Defense for Poicy of the "nited States Michee
Fournoy and Shawn )rimey suggest that since JJII! "S grand strategy has centered on creating and sustaining an internationa system that faciitates commerce! tra#e! and
thus the spread of Jestern #aues incuding indi#idua freedom! democracy! and iberty900 2his uncontested access to and stabiity within the goba commons of air! sea! space
and cyberspace has ony been possibe because of "S miitary power9 As the emergent mutipoar word chaenges its hegemony! they argue! it is in the "Ss interest to shore up
its miitary and defend the goba commons! in partnership with its aies (see aso Denmar3 and Mu#enon! ./0/690. 2he miitary buid-up in the Arctic! where states are
*oc3eying o#er access to pre#iousy unna#igabe passageways and resources! is hed out as an e;ampe of how emergent resource conficts are ta3ing shape! but aso the need for
a coordinated "S approach to protect its interests (Carmen et a! ./0/: Pas3a! .//?69 2he discourse around the commons reinforces the idea that the en#ironment is to be
controed and managed9 2his is e7uay the case with respect to how the militari'ation of climate change is aso reshaping
domestic poitics and society9 Catherine But8 refects that As or more important than the efficacy of a mode of warfare999 has been the form of ife it has
encouraged inside the nation waging it (But8 .//.D ?.?69 >er own critica wor3 on miitarism e;amines the socia formations that are organi8ed around the miitary! eg the
raciai8ed and gender abour economies of suburban "S formed around the production of nucear weapons9 $n#ironmenta reations need aso be ta3en into considerationD they
are constituted through the miitary which is charged with bringing nature under controD to mode it! to manage it and to ma3e it predictabe in the name of security! abeit an
anthropocentric security that is ony understood in human terms ()arnett .//0D +@: emphasis in the origina69 2hat the "S miitary is increasingy
becoming a site and source for new green technoogies is *ust one such manifestation of the
orchestration of life for military purposes ! and is suggesti#e of the probematic deepening
and e;tension of the miitary-industria-academic-scientific compe;9 2he 'D% sets out the compe; web of
coaborations that wi tac3e cimate changeD the DoD wi partner with academia! other "9S9 agencies! and internationa partners to research! de#eop! test! and e#auate new
sustainabe energy technoogies ('D% ./0/D -?69 Miitary inno#ations such as &PS! radar and the Internet are offered as comparabe e;ampes of transformati#e technoogica
inno#ation that ha#e had immense socia benefit (Jarner and Singer .//<D +69 2his pro#ides a rationai8ation for the miions of
doars that are being siphoned into the miitary so that it can be at the frontines of de#eoping
aternati#e energy pro*ects9 For e;ampe! the argest e;isting soar pane pro*ect in the "S is at the Meis Air Force )ase! Me#ada! where ?/!/// soar
panes are spread out across 04/ acres to generate 04 megawatts (about 4@ miion NJh6 a year905 A P. biion agreement signed in .//< between DoD and Irwin $nergy
Security Partners wi ma3e Fort IrwinEthe armys argest training camp ocated in Caifornias Mo*a#e DesertE energy independent by ./..! with a @//MJ soar pro*ect on .0
s7uare mies904 Qero-energy homes are being buit on "S miitary bases90@ A pro*ect is underway to introduce 4!/// eectric cars into the armed forces to create one of the
argest such feets in the word (Pew ./0/D 0569 2he first hybrid Ma#y #esse! a Jasp cass amphibious assaut ship! is aready on the water (%osentha! ./0/69 In Ira7! the 2actica
&arbage to $nergy %efinery (or tiger6 is con#erting garbage to biofue to power generators90+ In >emand Pro#ince! Afghanistan! soar panes are being used on tents! for
recharging computers and other e7uipment (%osentha! ./0/69 2he Defense Ad#anced %esearch Pro*ects Agency (DA%PA6Ethe research and de#eopment office of the miitary
in change of technoogica ad#ancementEis de#eoping aternati#e fue sources! from products such as agae and rapeseed that are ess carbon-intensi#e90? 2he ob*ecti#e of
biofues de#eopment is to ma3e miitary transport more sustainabe! i3e the &reat &reen Feet of aircraft carriers and support ships that is in de#eopment for ./0+
(Shachtman! ./0/69 It is not that this greening of the miitary is unwarranted! or that these technoogica
de#eopments are not desirabe9 If there is to be a miitary at a! it might as we be more sustainabe9 As it is! the "S miitary is the words singe
argest energy consumerEit consumes more than any other pri#ate or pubic institution! and more than 0// nations (Jarner and Singer .//<D 0: see aso Deoitte! .//<:
Sanders! .//<69 2his comprises /9-R of tota "S energy! and about ?-R of go#ernment energy useEroughy 5<@!/// barres of oi a day! e7ui#aent to a of &reece (Jarner and
Singer .//<D .69 Its operations abroad are e7uay rapacious9 In the first-e#er energy audit in a war 8one it was re#eaed that "S marines in Afghanistan used -//!/// gaons of
fue each day90- Figures from Ira7 show that between .//5 and .//? the war generated 040 miion metric tons of carbon dio;ide e7ui#aentEmore than 05< countries (%eisch
and Nret8mann .//-D 469 2here is thus a cear case for reducing the miitarys damaging impact on the andscape9 2he 7uestion that the greening of
the miitary sidesteps! howe#er! is whether there shoud indeed be a miitary at a9 Moreo#er! e#en if
the miitary persists! shoud it be where cimate change inno#ations are ocatedO Shoud pubic funds be directed into the
miitary to fight cimate changeO In a speech on energy security in March! ./0/! President Abama auded the P.9? biion aready spent that year by
the DoD on energy efficiency measures90< 2his in#estment is being used to support seect miitary partnerships! with a strong emphasis on pri#ati8ation9 2he soar pane pro*ect
at Meis Air Force )ase Me#ada! mentioned abo#e! is a pri#atey financed and owned initiati#e by MMA %enewabes! with e7uity in#estments from Citi and Astate9./ 2he
panes wi be owned by the financiers: Meis wi ease the and! and purchase the power9 2he Fort Irwin pro*ect agreed to in Actober .//< operates aong simiar ines! and is a
partnership with the Car3 $nergy &roup and Acciona Soar Power9.0 2he 8ero-energy homes being instaed in Nentuc3y are a pubic-pri#ate partnership between the "S Army
and Actus Bend Bease9.. "ni#ersities are aso compicitD the 2actica &arbage to $nergy %efinery at the Cictory )ase Camp in )aghdad! for e;ampe! has been de#eoped in
con*unction with Purdue "ni#ersity9.5 Jhen en#ironmenta issues are fitered through the miitary! howe#er! ess
money is a#aiabe for inno#ation in other sectors! uness they are wor3ing in partnership with
the miitary9 Miitary in#estment in green initiati#es! for e;ampe! is not i3ey to de#eop inno#ations around pubic transport! but rather focus on the 3ind of
transportation re7uired for miitary needs! which wi then become a#aiabe to consumersEmuch as Sports "tiity Cehices (S"Cs6 are an offshoot of four-whee dri#e miitary
#ehices9 Moreo#er! a militarydriven agenda contributes to a more protectionist approach around
technoogica inno#ation that is e;acerbated aongside an une#en andscape of in#estment ("M$P
.//?D 4/469.4 2he priorities around cimate change are thus s3ewed by the miitary 9 As President Abama affirmed in
his March ./0/ speech! the primary nationa interest is reay with energy independence! not energy reduction9.@ At the same time that he was appauding the greening of the
miitary! the President announced the e;pansion of offshore oi and gas e;poration! incuding in the )ay of Me;ico9 (2his e;pansion was ater suspended in wa3e of the )P
Deepwater >ori8on disaster! before being resumed96 2he miitary has aso presented a case for mitigating the reiance on (foreign6 oi and de#eoping renewabe energy! which
has more to do with the impact on miitary personne in the fied than with ecoogica principes9 In the ast fi#e years! fue consumption at "S forward operating bases in confict
8ones has increased from @/ miion gaons to @// miion gaons a year (Deoitte .//<D 0@69 2his creates a dangerous situation for the ong tai of con#oys that are needed to
suppy these bases (Pew ./0/D ?69 Some reports indicate that more than three 7uarters of "S casuaties in war 8ones are the resut of suppy #ehices that ha#e been targeted by
impro#ised e;posi#e de#ices (I$Ds6! and con#oys ha#e been identified by Commandant &enera Hames Conway as one of his most pressing probems reated to ris3 of
casuaties (Deoitte .//<D 0@: see aso CMA! .//<69 Shachtman (./0/6 reports that in Ira7! In one month! 44 truc3s and ../!/// gaons of fue were ost9 2his is a probem
that the 'D% ta3es e;picity on board9 Jhereas cimate change is presented as a threat mutipier! energy
efficiency is described as a force mutipier! because it increases the range and endurance of forces in the fied and can reduce the number of
combat forces di#erted to protect energy suppy ines! which are #unerabe to both asymmetric and con#entiona attac3s and disruptions ('D% ./0/D -?69 2he reduction of
casuaties is thus propeing much of the impetus for renewabe energy! e#en though it is couched in cimate change rhetoric (see aso Jarner and Singer .//<D .: Deoitte .//<D
.?69 Motaby! there is no mention! across any of the poicy documents that ha#e appeared! about the
de#astating en#ironmenta impact of war upon the andscapes where it ta3es pace! and the need
to pre#ent or e#en mitigate this destruction9 )ac3 at home! miitary personne returning from war are being enroed as cimate warriors9
During the .//< eection campaign Abama announced a &reen Cets Initiati#e that woud pro#ide green training and *obs in the pri#ate sector for the -5?!/// #ets of Ira7 and
Afghanistan9 Jhie this e;act initiati#e has not been introduced! the go#ernment has promoted &reen $nergy Hobs through its Ceterans Jor3force In#estment Program and
through the American %eco#ery and %ein#estment Act9.+ 2his is a reconfiguration! and pri#ati8ation! of the ci#iian-miitary pact of crade-to-gra#e pro#ision of socia wefare
(see But8 .//.D ?5/69 2o this end! programs ha#e begun popping up across the "S9 2he &reen Coar Cets is a non-profit organi8ation in 2e;as that heps retrain and res3i #ets
for the green economy9.? 2he organi8ation Ceterans &reen Hobs! in partnership with se#era educationa institutions and organi8ations such as Jamart! Jhoe Foods! and the
Sierra Cub! pro#ides #ets of four states with training opportunities for the green economy9 Jhat differentiates their program! they argue! is that their 3eystone course &reen
0/0! ma3es e;picit the in3s between green programs and nationa security9 .- Ceterans are aso ta3ing on a more acti#ist roe to promote the shift to renewabe energy9 A group
of "S Cets! sponsored by Aperation Free (whose mission is to secure America with cean energy6! tra#eed to Copenhagen to discuss the nationa security dimensions of cimate
change (and groups ha#e aso tra#eed across the "S to #isit Senate Affices! and to the Jhite >ouse69.< Domestic programs for #ets! and resource and research in#estments for
greening the miitary point to some fundamenta ways that domestic socia formations are being reorgani8ed in support of
the militari'ation of climate change 9 2his is part of miitarisms typica doube mo#eD on the
one hand! war is pro*ected as being o#er there whie the second mo#e saturates our daiy i#es
with war-ness (Ferguson .//<D 4?-69 Domestic measures to address energy security are put forward as
cacuabe! rationa and e#en compassionate measures! whie the foreign threat is presented as
non-state! eusi#e! and undeterminedEand hence coherent with much of the discourse around
diffuse new wars and terrorist threats (Nador! .//+69 At the same time! there is aso greater
con#ergence between the inside and the outside! and between the en#ironment and the miitary
in the ways that the discourses are mobii8ed and mapped out (Cooper! .//+69 Indeed! as Mi33e Cedby %asmussen notes!
there is a coherence between preemptive military doctrines and precautionary
en#ironmenta strategiesD both are based upon a rationae for urgent action based on anticipated
future disaster scenarios (%asmussen .//+D 0.469 Motaby! howe#er! it is ony when en#ironmenta issues are harnessed to security caims that the
precautionary approach gains traction9 >i#ing cimate change to nationa security ensures that en#ironmenta issues wi garner more attention! as is argued by many of the
e;perts on the en#ironment and security noted abo#e9 )ut as I ha#e sought to iustrate in this paper! instead of opening up 7uestions
regarding security or the en#ironment! these are foreclosed by a miitary approach 9 It reduces
the concept of security to a nationalist0 defensive strategy modeed on future disaster
scenarios of resource confict9 Moreo#er! it perpetuates an externali'ed concept of nature
that is to be commanded and controed! with no rea sense of ecoogica prioriti8ation9 %ather!
energy security emerges as the primary focus for inno#ation and in#estment to combat
geopoitica concerns around the reiance on foreign oi and the threat to miitary personne in
the fied9 At the same time! increased spending on the miitary is egitimi8ed as it becomes a
source of green initiati#es9 Jhere does this ea#e poitics! and more precisey! as Meinda Cooper as3s! Jhat becomes of an anti-war poitics when the
sphere of miitary action infitrates the grey areas of e#eryday ife! contaminating our 7uaity of ife at the most eementa e#eO (Cooper .//+D 0.<69 If we support cimate
change initiati#es! are we then pro-miitaryO If we are anti-miitary! do we *eopardi8e cimate change actionO As the miitari8ation of cimate
change unfods! it is this interpenetration that needs to be disrupted ! both with respect to
martia approaches to the en#ironment! and with respect to the troubing attempts to use the
mobii8ation of cimate change to re-morai8e war and the miitary9
$his technological enframing ma/es !arming strategically even more dangerous
and cro!ds out more pressing environmental movements
Crist *1 = Ass9 Prof9 Sci S 2ech in Society T C2 ($ieen! 2eos 040! Jinter! )eyond the Cimate Crisis6
Jhie the dangers of cimate change are rea! I argue that there are even greater dangers in
representing it as the most urgent probem we face9 Framing cimate change in such a manner
deser#es to be chaenged for two reasonsD it encourages the restriction of proposed soutions to the technica
ream! by powerfuy insinuating that the needed approaches are those that directy address the probem: and it detracts
attention from the panets ecoogica predicament as a whoe ! by #irtue of caiming the imeight for
the one issue that trumps a others9 Identifying cimate change as the biggest threat to ci#ii8ation! and ushering it into
center stage as the highest priority probem! has bostered the proiferation of technica proposas that address the specific chaenge9
2he race is on for figuring out what technoogies! or portfoio thereof! wi so#e Fthe probem9G Jhether the ca is for
re#i#ing nucear power! boosting the instaation of wind turbines! using a #ariety of renewabe energy sources!
increasing the efficiency of fossi-fue use! de#eoping carbon-se7uestering technoogies! or pacing mirrors in space to defect the
suns rays! the narrow character of such proposas is e#identD confront the probem of greenhouse
gas emissions by technoogicay phasing them out! superseding them! capturing them! or mitigating their heating
effects9 In his 2he %e#enge of &aia! for e;ampe! Bo#eoc3 briefy mentions the need to face cimate change by Fchanging our whoe
stye of i#ing9G0+ )ut the thrust of this wor3! what readers and poicy-ma3ers come away with! is his repeated and strident ca for
in#esting in nucear energy as! in his words! Fthe one ifeine we can use immediatey9G0? In the poicy ream! the first step toward the
technoogica fi; for goba warming is often identified with impementing the Nyoto protoco9 )ioogist 2im Fannery agitates for the
treaty! comparing the need for its successfu endorsement to that of the Montrea protoco that phased out the o8one-depeting
CFCs9 F2he Montrea protoco!G he submits! Fmar3s a signa moment in human societa de#eopment! representing the first e#er
#ictory by humanity o#er a goba poution probem9G0- >e hopes for a simiar #ictory for the goba cimate-change probem9 Iet
the deepening reai8ation of the threat of cimate change! #irtuay in the wa3e of stratospheric o8one depetion! aso suggests that
deaing with goba probems treaty-by-treaty is no soution to the panets predicament9 Hust as the ris3s of unanticipated o8one
depetion ha#e been foowed by the dangers of a ong underappreciated cimate crisis! so it woud be naU#e not to anticipate another
(perhaps e#en entirey unforeseeabe6 catastrophe arising after the (hoped-for6 resoution of the abo#e two9 Furthermore! if
greenhouse gases were restricted successfuy by means of technoogica shifts and inno#ations! the root cause of the
ecoogica crisis as a whoe woud remain unaddressed9 2he destructi#e patterns of production! trade!
e;traction! and-use! waste proiferation! and consumption! couped with popuation growth! woud go
unchaenged! continuing to run down the integrity! beauty! and bioogica richness of the $arth9 Industria-consumer
ci#ii8ation has entrenched a form of ife that admits #irtuay no imits to its e;pansi#eness within! and percei#ed entitement to! the
entire panet90< )ut 7uestioning this ci#ii8ation is by and arge sidestepped in cimate-change discourse! with its singe-minded
7uest for a goba-warming techno-fi;9./ Instead of confronting the forms of socia organi8ation that are causing the cimate crisisE
among numerous other catastrophesEcimate-change iterature often focuses on how goba warming is endangering the cuprit!
and agoni8es o#er what technoogica means can sa#e it from impending tipping points9.0 2he dominant frame of cimate change
funnes cogniti#e and pragmatic wor3 toward specificay addressing goba warming! whie muting a host of e7uay monumenta
issues9 Cimate change ooms so huge on the en#ironmenta and poitica agenda today that it has contributed to
downpaying other facets of the ecoogica crisis D mass e;tinction of species! the de#astation of the oceans by
industria fishing! continued od-growth deforestation ! topsoi osses and desertification !
endocrine disruption! incessant de#eopment ! and so on ! are made to appear secondary and more
forgi#ing by comparison with Fdangerous anthropogenic interferenceG with the cimate system9
In what foows! I wi focus specificay on how cimate-change discourse encourages the continued marginai8ation of the
biodi#ersity crisisEa crisis that has been sobery described as a hoocaust!.. and which despite decades of scientific and
en#ironmentaist peas remains a #irtua non-topic in society! the mass media! and humanistic and other academic iteratures9
Se#era wor3s on cimate change (though by no means a6 e;tensi#ey e;amine the conse7uences of goba warming for biodi#ersity!
.5 but rarey is it mentioned that biodepetion predates dangerous greenhouse-gas buidup by decades! centuries! or onger! and wi
not be stopped by a technoogica resoution of goba warming9 Cimate change is poised to e;acerbate species and ecosystem osses
Eindeed! is doing so aready9 )ut whie technoogicay preempting the worst of cimate change may
temporarily a#ert some of those osses! such a resoution of the cimate 7uandary wi not put an end toEwi
barely addressEthe ongoing destruction of ife on $arth9
$he 12C+s 3rthodox 45+s atomistic approach to global problems ma/es extinction
inevitable
2hmed 12 Dr9 Mafee8 Mosadde7 Ahmed is $;ecuti#e Director of the Institute for Poicy %esearch and De#eopment (IP%D6! an
independent thin3 tan3 focused on the study of #ioent confict! he has taught at the Department of Internationa %eations!
"ni#ersity of Susse; 12he internationa reations of crisis and the crisis of internationa reationsD from the securitisation of scarcity
to the miitarisation of society1 &oba Change! Peace S Security Coume .5! Issue 5! ./00 2ayor Francis 59 From securitisation to
miitarisation 590 Compicity
2his anaysis thus cas for a broader approach to en#ironmenta security based on retrie#ing the manner in which poitica
actors construct discourses of 6scarcity6 in response to ecological0 energy and economic
crises (critica security studies6 in the conte;t of the historicay-specific socio-poitica and
geopoitica reations of domination by which their power is constituted! and which are often
implicated in the acceleration of these very crises (historica socioogy and historica materiaism69
Instead! both reaist and ibera orthodo; I% approaches focus on different aspects of interstate beha#iour!
confictua and cooperati#e respecti#ey! but each ac3s the capacity to grasp that the unsustainabe tra*ectory of state and inter-state
beha#iour is ony e;picabe in the conte;t of a wider goba system concurrenty o#er-e;poiting the biophysica en#ironment in
which it is embedded9 2hey are! in other words! unabe to address the reationship of the inter-state system
itsef to the biophysica en#ironment as a 3ey anaytica category for understanding the
acceeration of goba crises9 2hey simutaneousy therefore cannot recognise the embeddedness of the economy in society
and the concomitant poiticay-constituted nature of economics9 >ence! they negect the profound irrationaity of
coecti#e state beha#iour! which systematicay erodes this reationship! globalising
insecurity on a massive scale in the very process of see/ing security9-@ In Co;Vs words!
because positi#ist I% theory 6does not -uestion the present order Kit insteadL has the effect
of egitimising and reifying itV9-+ 3rthodox 45 sanitises globallydestructive collective
interstate behaviour as a norma function of instrumenta reason -thus rationalising !hat
are clearly deeply irrational collective human actions that threaten to permanenty
erode state power and security by destroying the very conditions of human existence9 Indeed! the
pre#aence of orthodo; I% as a body of discipinary beiefs! norms and prescriptions organicay con*oined with actua poicy-ma3ing
in the internationa system highights the e;tent to which both realism and liberalism are ideologically
implicated in the acceleration of global systemic crises . )y the same to3en! the
incapacity to recognise and critically interrogate how prevailing social0 political and
economic structures are dri#ing goba crisis acceeration has ed to the proliferation of
symptomled solutions focused on the e;pansion of state,regime miitary-poitica power
rather than any attempt to transform root structural causes 9-- It is in this conte;t that! as the
prospects for meaningfu reform through inter-state cooperation appear increasingy nuified
under the pressure of actors with a #ested interest in sustaining pre#aiing geopoitica and economic structures! states ha#e
resorted progressi#ey more to militarised responses designed to protect the concurrent structure of the
internationa system from dangerous new threats9 In effect! the faiure of orthodo; approaches to accurately
diagnose global crises0 directy accentuates a tendency to 6securitise6 them - and this!
ironicay! fues the proliferation of violent conflict and miitarisation responsibe for magnified goba
insecurity9 VSecuritisationV refers to a 6speech act6 - an act of abeing - whereby poitica authorities
identify particuar issues or incidents as an e;istentia threat which! because of their e;treme nature! *ustify going
beyond the norma security measures that are within the rue of aw9 It thus egitimises resort to specia e;tra-ega powers9 )y
abeing issues a matter of VsecurityV! therefore! states are abe to mo#e them outside the remit of democratic
decision-ma3ing and into the ream of emergency powers! all in the name of survival itself9
Far from representing a mere aberration from democratic state practice! this discoses a deeper VduaV structure of
the state in its institutionaisation of the capacity to mobiise e;traordinary e;tra-ega miitary-
poice measures in purported response to an e;istentia danger9 2he probem in the conte;t of
goba ecoogica! economic and energy crises is that such e#es of emergency mobiisation and
miitarisation ha#e no positi#e impact on the #ery goba crises generating Vnew security
chaengesV! and are thus entirey disproportionate9</ 2ll that remains to examine is on the 6surface6
of the internationa system (geopoitica competition! the baance of power! internationa regimes! gobaisation and so on6!
phenomena which are disocated from their structura causes by way of being unabe to
recognise the biophysicay-embedded and poiticay-constituted socia reations of which they
are comprised9 2he conse7uence is that orthodo; I% has no means of responding to goba
systemic crises other than to reduce them to their symptoms . Indeed! orthodo; I% theory
has argey responded to goba systemic crises not !ith ne! theory0 but !ith the
expanded application of existing theory to 6ne! security challenges6 such as Vow-
intensityV intra-state conficts: ine-uality and poverty : environmental degradation :
internationa crimina acti#ities incuding drugs and arms traffic3ing: proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction: and internationa terrorism 9<0 Athough the ma*ority of such Vnew security
chaengesV are non-miitary in origin - whether their referents are states or indi#iduas - the inade7uacy of systemic
theoretica framewor3s to diagnose them means they are primariy examined through the
lenses of militarypolitical po!er .<. In other words! the escaation of goba ecoogica!
energy and economic crises is recognised not as e#idence that the current organisation of the
goba poitica economy is fundamentay unsustainabe! re7uiring urgent transformation! but as
#indicating the necessity for states to radicaise the e;ertion of their miitary-poitica capacities
to maintain e;isting power structures! to /eep the lid on9<5 &oba crises are thus #iewed as ampifying
factors that coud mobiise the popuar wi in ways that chaenge e;isting poitica and economic structures! which it is presumed
(gi#en that state power itsef is constituted by these structures6 deser#e protection9 2his *ustifies the stateVs adoption of e;tra-ega
measures outside the norma sphere of democratic poitics9 In the conte;t of goba crisis impacts! this counter-democratic trend-
ine can resut in a growing propensity to probematise potentiay recacitrant popuations -
rationalising violence toward them as a contro mechanism9 Conse7uenty! for the most part! the poicy
impications of orthodo; I% approaches in#o#e a redundant conceptuaisation of goba
systemic crises purey as potentia 6threatmultipliers6 of traditional security issues such as
6political instability around the word! the collapse of governments and the creation of terrorist
safe havens69 Cimate change wi ser#e to ampify the threat of internationa terrorism! particuary in regions with arge
popuations and scarce resources9 2he "S Army! for instance! depicts cimate change as a Vstress-
mutipierV that wi Ve;acerbate tensionsV and Vcompicate American foreign poicyV: whie the $" percei#es it as a
Vthreat-mutipier which e;acerbates e;isting trends! tensions and instabiityV9<@ In practice! this generates an excessive
preoccupation not !ith the causes of goba crisis acceeration and how to ameiorate them through structura
transformation! but !ith their purportedly inevitable impacts ! and how to prepare for them
by controing probematic popuations9 Parado;icay! this 6securitisation6 of global crises does
not render us safer9 Instead! by necessitating more violence ! whie inhibiting preventive
action! it guarantees greater insecurity 9 2hus! a recent "S Department of Defense report e;pores the future
of internationa confict up to ./@/9 It warns of Vresource competition induced by growing popuations and e;panding economiesV!
particuary due to a pro*ected Vyouth bugeV in the South! which Vwi consume e#er increasing amounts of food! water and energyV9
2his wi prompt a Vreturn to traditiona security threats posed by emerging near-peers as we compete gobay for depeting natura
resources and o#erseas mar3etsV9 Finay! cimate change wi VcompoundV these stressors by generating humanitarian crises!
popuation migrations and other compe; emergencies9<+ A simiar study by the "S Hoint Forces Command draws attention to the
danger of goba energy depetion through to ./5/9 Jarning of the dangerous #unerabiities the growing energy crisis presents! the
report concudes that 2he impications for future confict are ominous9<? Ance again! the sub*ect turns to demographicsD In tota!
the word wi add appro;imatey +/ miion peope each year and reach a tota of - biion by the ./5/s! <@ per cent accruing to
de#eoping countries! whie popuations in de#eoped countries sow or decine9 %egions such as the Midde $ast and Sub-Saharan
Africa! where the youth buge wi reach o#er @/R of the popuation! wi possess fewer inhibitions about engaging in confict9<- 2he
assumption is that regions which happen to be both energy-rich and Musim-ma*ority wi aso be sites of #ioent confict due to their
rapidy growing popuations9 A )ritish Ministry of Defence report concurs with this assessment! highighting an ine#itabe youth
buge by ./5@! with some -? per cent of a peope under the age of .@ inhabiting de#eoping countries9 In particuar! the Midde
$ast popuation wi increase by 05. per cent and sub-Saharan Africa by -0 per cent9 &rowing resentment due to endemic
unempoyment wi be channeed through poitica miitancy! incuding radica poitica Isam whose concept of "mma! the goba
Isamic community! and resistance to capitaism may ie uneasiy in an internationa system based on nation-states and goba
mar3et forces9 More strangey! predicting an intensifying goba di#ide between a super-rich eite! the midde casses and an urban
under-cass! the report warnsD 2he words midde casses might unite! using access to 3nowedge! resources and s3is to shape
transnationa processes in their own cass interest9<< 2hus! the securitisation of goba crisis eads not ony to the
problematisation of particular religious and ethnic groups in foreign regions of geopoitica
interest! but potentiay e;tends this probematisation to any social group which might chaenge
pre#aiing goba poitica economic structures across racia! nationa and cass ines9 2he pre#ious e;ampes iustrate how
secur-itisation paradoxically generates insecurity by reifying a process of
militari'ation against socia groups that are constructed as e;terna to the pre#aiing geopoitica
and economic order9 In other words! the interna reductionism! fragmentation and
compartmentaisation that pagues orthodo; theory and poicy reproduces precisey these characteristics by
e;ternaising goba crises from one another! externalising states from one another! e;ternaising the inter-state system
from its biophysica en#ironment! and e;ternaising new socia groups as dangerous VoutsidersW9 >ence! a simpe discursi#e
anaysis of state miitarisation and the construction of new 1outsiderW identities is insufficient to
understand the causa dynamics dri#ing the process of VAtherisationV9 As Doug Sto3es points out! the
Jestern state preoccupation with the ongoing miitary strugge against internationa terrorism
re#eas an underying 6discursive complex 1! where representations about terrorism and
non-Jestern popuations are premised on Vthe construction of star3 boundariesW that Voperate to
e;cude and incudeW9 Iet these e;cusionary discourses are Vintimatey bound up with poitica
and economic processesV! such as strategic interests in proliferating military bases in the
7iddle East! economic interests in contro of oil! and the wider poitica goa of 6maintaining
2merican hegemony W by dominating a resourcerich region critical for global
capitalism.188 )ut e#en this does not go far enough! for arguaby the construction of certain hegemonic
discourses is mutuay constituted by these geopoitica! strategic and economic interests E
e;cusionary discourses are poiticay constituted9 Mew conceptua de#eopments in genocide studies throw
further ight on this in terms of the concrete socio-poitica dynamics of securitisation processes9 It is now widey recognised! for
instance! that the distinguishing criterion of genocide is not the pre-e;istence of primordia groups! one of which destroys the other
on the basis of a preeminence in bureaucratic miitary-poitica power9 %ather! genocide is the intentiona attempt to destroy a
particuar socia group that has been sociay constructed as different9 As >inton obser#es! genocides precisey constitute a process of
VotheringW in which an imagined community becomes reshaped so that pre#iousy VincudedW groups become Videoogicay recastV
and dehumanised as threatening and dangerous outsiders! be it aong ethnic! reigious! poitica or economic ines E e#entuay
legitimising their annihilation 90/. In other words! genocida #ioence is inherenty rooted in
a prior and ongoing ideoogica process! whereby e;cusionary group categories are inno#ated!
constructed and VAtherisedV in accordance with a specific socio-poitica programme9 2he #ery process of
identifying and cassifying particuar groups as outside the boundaries of an imagined community of VincusionW! *ustifying
e;cupatory #ioence toward them! is itsef a poitica act without which genocide woud be impossibe90 5 2his recas Bem3inVs
recognition that the intention to destroy a group is integray connected with a wider socio-poitica
pro*ect - or coonia pro*ect E designed to perpetuate the poitica! economic! cutura and ideoogica
reations of the perpetrators in the pace of that of the #ictims! by interrupting or eradicating
their means of socia reproduction9 3nly by interrogating the dynamic and origins of this
programme to unco#er the socia reations from which that programme deri#es can the
emergence of genocidal intent become e;picabe 9 )uiding on this insight! Semein demonstrates that the
process of e;cusionary socia group construction in#ariaby deri#es from poitica processes emerging from deep-seated
sociopoitica crises that undermine the pre#aiing framewor3 of ci#i order and socia norms: and which can! for one socia group! be
seemingy reso#ed by pro*ecting an;ieties onto a new VoutsiderV group deemed to be somehow responsibe for crisis conditions9 It is
in this conte;t that #arious forms of mass violence ! which may or may not e#entuay
culminate in actual genocide ! can become legitimised as contributing to the
resolution of crises 90/@
9ote neg to re,ect the 12C+s enframing(only this accesses a healthy middle ground
that reevaluates problematisation
Cheeseman : "ruce ;< (&raeme Cheeseman! Snr9 Becturer T Mew South Jaes! and %obert )ruce! 0<<+! Discourses
of Danger S Dread Frontiers! p9 @-<6
2his goa is pursued in ways which are sti uncon#entiona in the inteectua miieu of internationa reations in Austraia! e#en
though they are gaining infuence wordwide as traditiona modes of theory and practice are rendered inade7uate by goba trends
that defy comprehension! et aone poicy9 2he inabiity to gi#e meaning to goba changes refects party the
encosed! eitist word of profession security anaysts and bureaucratic e;perts! where entry is
gained by earning and accepting to spea3 a particuar! e;cusionary anguage9 2he contributors to
this boo3 are famiiar with the discourse! but accord no pri#ieged pace to its 3nowedge form
as reaity in debates on defense and security9 Indeed! they beie#e that debate wi be furthered ony
through a ong o#erdue critica re-e#auating of eite perspecti#es9 Puraistic! democraticay-
oriented perspecti#es on Austraias identity are both re7uired and essentia if Austraias thin3ing on
defense and security is to be in#igorated 9 2his is not a con#entiona poicy boo3: nor shoud it be!
in the sense of offer ing poicy-ma3ers and their academic counterparts sets of neat aternati#e
soutions! in famiiar anguage and format! to probems they pose9 2his e;pectation is itsef a considerabe
part of the probem to be anay8ed9 It is! howe#er! a boo3 about poicy! one that 7uestions how probems are framed by
poicy-ma3ers9 It chaenges the proposition that irreducibe bodies of rea 3nowedge on defense
and security e;ist independenty of their conte;t in the word! and it demonstrates how security
poicy is articuated authoritati#ey by the eite 3eepers of that 3nowedge! e;perts trained to
recogni8e enduring! uni#ersa wisdom9 A others! from this perspecti#e! must accept such wisdom to
remain outside of the e;pert domain! tainted by their inabiity to compy with the rightness of
the officia ine9 )ut it is precisey the officia ine! or at the east its image of the word ! that needs to be
probematised9 If the critic responds directy to the demand for poicy aternati#es ! without addressing
this image! he or she is tacity endorsing it 9 )efore engaging in the poicy debate the critics need to reframe the basic terms
of reference tradition of democratic diaogue9 More immediatey! it ignores post-se#enteenth century democratic
traditions which insist that a good society must ha#e within it some way of criticay assess ing its
3nowedge and the decisions based upon that 3nowedge which impact upon citi8ens of such a
society9 2his is a tradition with a sighty different connotation in contemporary ibera democracies! which during the Cod Jar!
were procaimed different and superior to the totaitarian enemy precisey because they were institutiona chec3s and baances upon
power9 In short! one of the ma*or differences between open societies and their (cosed6 counterparts
behind the Iron Curtain was that the former encouraged the critica testing of the 3nowedge
and decisions of the powerfu and assessing them against ibera democratic principes9 2he atter
toerated criticism ony on rare and imited occasions9 For some! this represented the triumph of rationa-scientific methods of
in7uiry and techni7ues of fasification9 For others! especiay since positi#ism and rationaism ha#e ost much of their aure! it
means that for society to become open and ibera! sectors of the popuation must be independent of the state and free to 7uestion its
3nowedge and power9 Ane must be abe to say why to power and procaim no to power9 2hough we do not e;pect this position to
be accepted by e#ery reader! contributors to this boo3 beie#e that critica diaogue is ong o#erdue in Austraia and needs to be
istened to9 For a its ibera democratic trappings! Austraias security community continues to in#o3e cosed
monoogica narrati#es on defense and security9 2his boo3 aso 7uestions the distinctions between poicy practice
and academic theory that informs con#entiona accounts of Austraian security9 Ane of its ma*or concerns! particuary in chapters 0
and .! is to iustrate how theory is integra to the practice of security anaysis and poicy prescription9 2he boo3 aso cas on
poicy-ma3ers! academics and students of defense and security to thin3 criticay about what
they are reading! writing and saying: to begin to as3! of their wor3 and study! difficut and
searching 7uestions raised in other discipines: to recogni8e! no matter how uncomfortabe it
fees! that what is in#o#ed in theory and practice is not the abiity to identify a repacement for
faied modes! but a reai8ation that terms and concepts = state so#ereignty! baance of power!
security! and so on = are contested and probematic! and that the word is indeterminate! aways
becoming what is written about it9 Critica anaysis which shows how particuar 3inds of
theoretica presumptions can effecti#ey e;cude #ita areas of poitica ife from anaysis has
direct practica impications for poicyma3ers! academics and citi8ens who face the daunting
tas3 of steering Austraia through some potentiay choppy internationa waters o#er the ne;t
few years9 2here is aso much interest in the chapters for those strugging to gi#e meaning to a word where so much that has ong
been ta3en for granted now demands imaginati#e! incisi#e reappraisa9 2he contributors! too! ha#e strugged to find meaning! often
despairing at the terribe human costs of internationa #ioence9 2his is why readers wi find no singe! fuy
formed panacea for the words is in genera! or Austraias security in particuar9 2here are none9 $#er
chapter! howe#er in its own way! offers something more than is found in orthodo; iterature! often by e;posing rituaistic Cod Jar
defense and security mind-sets that are dressed up as new thin3ing9 Chapters ? and <! for e;ampe! present aternati#e ways of
engaging in security and defense practice9 Athers (chapters 5! 4! @! +! and -6 see3 to aert poicyma3ers! academics and students to
aternati#e theoretica possibiities that might better ser#e an Austraian community pursuing security and prosperity in an
uncertain word9 A chapters confront the poicy community and its counterparts in the academy
with a deep awareness of the inteectua and materia constraints imposed by dominant
traditions of reaism! but they a#oid dismissi#e and e;cusionary terms which often in the past
characteri8ed e;changes between poicy-ma3ers and their critics9 2his is because! as noted earier!
attention needs to be paid to the words and the thought process of those being critici8ed9 A cose
reading of this 3ind draws attention to underying assumptions! showing they need to be
recogni8ed and 7uestioned9 A sense of doubt (in pace of confident certainty6 is a necessary preude to a
genuine search for aternati#e poicies9 First comes an awareness of the need for new
perspecti#es! then specific poices may foow9 As Him &eorge argues in the foowing chapter! we need to oo3 not
as much at contending poicies as they are made for us but chaenging the discursi#e process which gi#es
Kfa#ored interpretations of FreaityGL their meaning and which direct KAustraiasL poicy,anaytica,
miitary responses9 2his process is not restricted to the sma! officia defense and security estabishment hudded around the
"S-Austraian Jar Memoria in Canberra9 It aso encompasses much of Austraias academic defense and security community
ocated primariy though not e;cusi#ey within the Austraian Mationa "ni#ersity and the "ni#ersity Coege of the "ni#ersity of
Mew South Jaes9 2hese discursi#e processes are e;amined in detai in subse7uent chapters as authors attempt to ma3e sense of a
poitics of e;cusion and cosure which e;ercises discipinary power o#er Austraias security community9 2hey aso 7uestion the
discourse of regiona security! security cooperation! peace3eeping and aiance poitics that are centra to Austraias officia and
academic security agenda in the 0<</s9 2his is seen as an important tas3 especiay when ! as it re#eaed! the
discipines of I nternationa % eations and Strategic Studies are under chaenge from critica and
theoretica debates ranging across the socia sciences and humanities: debates that are nowhere
to be found in Austraian defense and security studies9 2he chapters graphicay iustrate how Austraias pubic poicies
on defense and security are informed! underpinned! and9 2his boo3! then! refects and underines the importance of
Antonio &ramsci and $dward Saids critica inteectuas9 2he demand! tacit or otherwise! that the poicy
ma3ers frame of reference be accepted as the ony basis for discussion and anaysis ignores a three thousand year od
tradition commony associated with Socrates and purportedy integra to the Jestern egitimi8ed by a narrowy-based
inteectua enterprise which draws strength from contested concepts of reaism and iberaism!
which in turn see3 egitimacy through poicy-ma3ing processes9 Contributors as3 whether Austraias poicy-
ma3ers and their academic ad#isers are unaware of broader inteectua debates9 Ar resistant to them! or choose not to understand
them! and whyO 2o summari8eD a centra concern of this boo3 is to democrati8e the defense and security theory,practice process in
Austraia so that restrictions on debate can be understood and resisted9 2his is a crucia enterprise in a n anaytica,
poicy en#ironment dominated by particuary rigid #ariants of reaism which ha#e become so
powerfu and unrefecti#e that they are no onger recogni8ed simpy as particuar ways of
constituting the word! but as descriptions of the rea-as reaity itsef 9 2he conse7uences of this (sienced6
theory-as-practice may be #iewed e#ery day in the poignant! distressing monuments to anaytica,poicy metooism at the Austraian
(Imperia6 Jar Memoria in Canberra and the many other monuments to young Austraians in towns and cities around the country9
2hese are the fesh and bood instaments of an insurance poicy strategy which! tragicay!
remains integra to Austraian reaism! despite caims of a new mature independent identity in the 0<</s9 2his is what
unfortunatey! continues to be at sta3e in the potentiay deady debates o#er defense and security
re#eaed in this boo39 For this reason aone! it shoud be regarded as a positi#e and constructi#e
contribution to debate by those who are the targets of its criticisms9
"eginning discussions at the intellectual level is more productive(causes better
social change !hich their engagement can+t access(this is empirically
proven
"ilgin 8= Assistant Prof of Internationa %eations at )i3ent "ni#ersity! %$&IAMAB S$C"%I2I IM 2>$ MIDDB$ $AS2 A
C%I2ICAB P$%SP$C2IC$! p@4-
2he point is that a broader security agenda re7uires students of security to oo3 at agents other than
the state! such as socia mo#ements ! nongo#ernmenta organisations (M&As6 and indi#iduas! instead
of restricting their anaysis to the states agency 9 2his is essentia not ony because states are not aways
abe (or wiing6 to fufi their side of the bargain in pro#iding for their citi8ens security! as noted abo#e! but
aso because there aready are agents other than states = be it socia mo#ements or inteectuas =
who are stri#ing to pro#ide for the differing needs of peopes (themse#es and others69 2his is not
meant to deny the saience of the roes states pay in the ream of security: on the contrary! they remain
significant actors with crucia roes to pay9.@ %ather! the argument is that the states dominant
position as an actor we endowed to pro#ide (certain dimensions of6 security does not *ustify pri#ieging its
agency9 Furthermore! broadening the security agenda without attempting a reconceptuaisation of
agency woud resut in faing bac3 upon the agency of the state in meeting non-miitary threats9 2he probem
with resorting to the agency of the state in meeting non-miitary threats is that states may not be the most suitabe
actors to cope with them9 In other words! the state being the most 7uaified actor in coping with some 3inds of threats
does not necessariy mean it is competent (or wiing6 enough to cope with a9 2his is why students of critica
approaches aim to re-conceptuaise agency and practice 9 Critica approaches #iew non-state
actors! in particuar! socia mo#ements and inteectuas! as potentia agents for change (Co; 0<-0!
0<<<: Ja3er 0<</b: >offman 0<<5: Jyn Hones 0<<@a! 0<<<69 2his echoes feminist approaches that ha#e emphasised the roe of
womens agency and maintained that women must act in the pro#ision of their own security if they are to ma3e a change in a
word where their security needs and concerns are marginaised (2ic3ner 0<<?: aso see Sy#ester 0<<469 2his is not
necessariy wishfu thin3ing on the part of a few academics: on the contrary! practice indicates that
peopes (as indi#iduas and socia groups6 ha#e ta3en certain aspects of their own and others security
into their own hands (Marsh 0<<@D 05/=@: 2urner 0<<-69 2hree successfu e;ampes from the Cod Jar
era = the Nestl> boycott 0 the antiapartheid campaign for South 2frica and the
campaign against nuclear missile deployments in Europe = are often #iewed as
ha#ing inspired the socia mo#ements of the post-Cod Jar era (Bope8 et a9 0<<?D .5/=0: Marsh 0<<@69
Christine Sy#ester (0<<46 has aso pointed to the e;ampes of the &reenham Common Peace
Camp in )ritain (0<-/=-<6 and womens producer cooperati#es in >arare! Qimbabwe (0<--=</6 to
show how women ha#e inter#ened to enhance their own and others security9 2hese are e;ceent
e;ampes of how a broader conception of security needs to be couped with a broader conception
of agency9 It shoud be noted here that the ca of critica approaches for oo3ing at the agency of non-state actors shoud not
be #iewed as aocating tas3s to preconcei#ed agents9 %ather! critica approaches aim to empower nonstate
actors (who may or may not be aware of their own potentia to ma3e a change6 to constitute themse#es as agents
of security to meet this broadened agenda9 Mor shoud it be ta3en to suggest that a non-state actors practices
are emancipatory9 2hen! paying more attention to the agency of non-state actors wi enabe
students of security to see how! in the absence of interest at the go#ernmenta e#e (as is the case with
the Midde $ast6! non-state actors coud imagine! create and nurture community-buiding pro*ects
and coud hep in getting state-e#e actors interested in the formation of a security community9 It shoud!
howe#er! be noted that not a non-state actors are community-minded = *ust as not a go#ernments are sceptica of the #irtues
of community buiding9 Indeed! oo3ing at the agency of nonstate actors is aso usefu because it enabes one to see how non-
state actors coud sta community-buiding pro*ects9 In the Midde $ast! womens mo#ements and networ3s
ha#e been cooperating across borders from the beginning of the Intifada onwards9 Jomens
agency! howe#er! is often eft unnoticed! because! as Simona Sharoni (0<<+6 has argued! the eyes of security
anaysts are often focused on the state as the primary security agent9 >owe#er! the Intifada was mar3ed
by Paestinian and Israei-Hewish womens adoption of non-8erosum! non-miitary practices that 7uestioned and chaenged the
boundaries of their poitica communities as they dared to e;pore new forms of poitica communities (Mi3hai-Ashrawi 0<<@:
Sharoni 0<<@69 Such acti#ities incuded organising a conference entited &i#e Peace a Chance = Jomen Spea3 Aut in )russes
in May 0<-<9 2he first of its 3ind! the conference brought together about @/ Israei and Paestinian women from the Jest )an3
and &a8a Strip together with PBA representati#es to discuss the Israei=Paestinian confict9 2he foow-up e#ent too3 pace in
Herusaem in December 0<-< where representati#es of the Paestinian Jomens Jor3ing Committees and the Israei Jomen
and Peace Coaition organised a womens day for peace which! Sharoni noted! cuminated in a march of +!/// women from
Jest to $ast Herusaem under the banner FJomen &o For PeaceG (Sharoni 0<<+D 0/?69 Aside from such e#ents that
were designed to aert pubic opinion of the unacceptabiity of the Israe,Paestine impasse as
we as finding aternati#e ways of peacema3ing! women aso undertoo3 direct action to
ae#iate the condition of Paestinians whose predicament had been worsening since the
beginning of the Intifada (Mi3hai-Ashrawi 0<<@69 In this process! they were aided by their Jestern $uropean
counterparts who pro#ided financia! institutiona as we as mora support9 In sum! womens agency heped ma3e
the Intifada possibe on the part of the Paestinian women! whist their Israei- Hewish counterparts heped
enhance its impact by way of 7uestioning the mora boundaries of the Israei state9 $he
4ntifada is also exemplary of ho! nonstate actors could initiate processes of
resistance that might later be ta/en up by policyma/ers 9 2he Intifada began in 0<-?
as a spontaneous grassroots reaction to the Israei occupation and too3 the PBA eadership (aong with others6 by
surprise9 It was ony some wee3s into the Intifada that the PBA eadership embraced it and put its
materia resources into furthering the cause! which was ma3ing occupation as difficut as possibe for the Israei go#ernment9
Athough not much came out of the Intifada in terms of an agree- ment with Israe on issues of concern for the peope i#ing in
the occupied territories! the process generated a momentum that cuminated in 0<-- with the PBAs
denouncement of terrorism9 2he change in the PBAs poicies! in turn! enabed the 0<<5 Aso Accords!
which was aso initiated by non-state actors! in this case inteectuas (Sharoni 0<<+69 2he point here is that
it has been a combination of top-down and bottom-up poitics that has been at the heart of
poitica change! be it the 0<-< re#outions in $astern $urope! or Intifada in
Israe,Paestine9 $mphasising the roes some non-state actors! notaby womens networ3s! ha#e payed as agents of
security is not to suggest that a non-state agents practices are non-8ero-sum and,or non-#ioent9 For instance! there are the
cases of Isamist mo#ements such as FIS (the Isamic Sa#ation Front6 in Ageria and >amas in the Accupied 2erritories that
ha#e resorted! o#er the years! to #ioent practices as a part of their strategies that were designed to capture the state mechanism9
>owe#er! athough they may constitute threats to security in the Midde $ast in #iew of their #ioent practices! what needs to be
remembered is that both FIS and >amas function as pro#iders for security for some peopes in the Midde $ast = those who are
often negected by their own states ($sposito 0<<@D 0+.=-569 In other words! some Isamist mo#ements do not ony offer a sense
of identity! but aso propose aternati#e practices and pro#ide tangibe economic! socia and mora support to their members9
>owe#er! the treatment women recei#e under the mastery of such Isamist mo#ements ser#es to remind us that there ceary are
probems in#o#ed in an unthin3ing reiance on non-go#ernmenta actors as agents for peace and security or an uncritica
adoption of their agendas9 Midde $astern history is repete with e;ampes of non-state actors resorting to #ioence and,or
adopting 8ero-sum practices in the attempt to capture state power9 In fact! it is often such #ioent practices of nonstate actors
(that is! terrorism or assassination of poitica eaders6 that are mentioned in security anayses9 Me#ertheess! the fact that
not a non-state actors are fit to ta3e up the roe of ser#ing as agents of emancipatory change
shoud not ead one to downpay the significant wor3 some ha#e done in the past! and coud
do in the future9 After a! not a states ser#e as pro#iders of security: yet Security Studies
continues to rey on their agency9 2hen! in order to be abe to fufi the roe aocated to them by critica approaches!
non-state actors shoud be encouraged to mo#e away from traditiona forms of resistance that
are based on e;cusionist identities! that soey aim to capture state power or that adopt 8ero-
sum thin3ing and practices9 Arguaby! this is a tas3 for inteectuas to fufi9 2his is not to suggest that
inteectuas shoud direct or instruct non-state actors9 As Jyn Hones (0<<<D 0+.6 has noted! the reationship between
inteectuas and socia mo#ements is based on reciprocity9 $he 1;?8s+ peace movements 0
for instance0 are good examples of intellectuals getting involved !ith social
movements in bringing about change = in this case! the end of the Cod Jar (&atung 0<<@: Nador 0<<?69
2he reationship between inteectuas and peace mo#ements in $urope was a mutuay
interacti#e one in that the inteectuas encouraged and ed whist drawing strength from
these mo#ements9 $mphasising the mutuay interacti#e reationship between inteectuas
and socia mo#ements shoud not be ta3en to suggest that to ma3e a change! inteectuas
shoud get directy in#o#ed in poitica action9 2hey coud aso inter#ene to pro#ide a criti7ue
of the e;isting situation! what future outcomes may resut if necessary action is not ta3en at present! and by pointing to
potentia for change immanent in word poitics9 Students of security coud hep create the poitica space that woud enabe the
emergence of a &orbache#! by presenting such criti7ue9 It shoud! howe#er! be emphasised that such thin3ing shoud be
anchored in the potentia immanent in word poitics9 In other words! inteectuas shoud be
informed by the practices of socia mo#ements themse#es (as was the case in $urope in the 0<-/s69 2he
hope is that non-state actors such as socia mo#ements and inteectuas (who may or may not be
aware of their potentia to ma3e a change6 may constitute themse#es as agents when presented with an
aternati#e reading of their situation9 Basty! inteectuas coud ma3e a change e#en if they imit
their practices to thin3ing ! writing and sef-refection 9 During the Cod Jar #ery few security
anaysts were conscious and open about the impact their thin3ing and writing coud ma3e9 %ichard
Jyn Hones cites the e;ampe of $dward M9 Buttwa3 as one such e;ception who admitted that strategy is not a neutra pursuit
and its ony purpose is to strengthen ones own side in the contention of nations (cited in Jyn Hones 0<<<D 0@/69 Sti! such
e;picit ac3nowedgement of the poitica dimension of strategic thin3ing was rare during the Cod
Jar9 An the contrary! students of Internationa %eations in genera and Security Studies in
particuar ha#e been characterised by imited or no sef-refection as to the potentia impact
their research coud ma3e on the sub*ect of research (Jyn Hones 0<<<D 04-=@/69 2o go bac3 to the argument
made abo#e about the roe of the inteectua as an agent of security and the mutuay constituti#e reationship between theory
and practice! students of critica approaches to security coud function as agents of security by
way of refecting upon the practica impications of their own thin3ing and writing9 Sef-
refection becomes crucia when the reationship between theory and practice is
conceptuaised as one of mutua constitution9 State-centric approaches to security do not simpy refect a
reaity out there but hep reinforce statism 9 Athough it may be true that the conse7uences of these
schoary acti#ities are sometimes unintended! there ne#ertheess shoud be a sense of
sefrefection on the part of schoars upon the potentia conse7uences of their research and
teaching9 2he point here is that critica approaches that show an awareness of the sociay
constructed character of reaity need not stop short of refecting upon the constituti#e
reationship between theory and practice when they themse#es are theorising about security9 Atherwise!
they run the ris3 of constituting threats to the future (NubX3o#X 0<<-D 0<5=./069
1NC 4nherency
Status -uo solves
@ope' 1A1A1B (Ascar! Batin 2imes! 1Mew Iear ./04D 4 %easons Immigration %eform Ji Pass In ./04!1
httpD,,www9atintimes9com,new-year-./04-4-reasons-immigration-reform-wi-pass-./04-040??-6
Immigration reform is set to be the 3ey issue of ./049 Foowing Mitt %omneyVs disma performance among Batino #oters in the ./0.
eection! both sides of the &o#ernment wo3e up to the necessity for comprehensi#e reform on immigration9 Indeed! in his State of
the "nion address in February! President Abama decared that F the time has come to pass comprehensi#e
immigration reform9G Iet with the >ouse di#ided o#er Abamacare and the budget crisis! the &o#ernment Shutdown et
immigration reform die9 ./04 wi change thatD and here are 4 %easons Jhy9 09 %epubican SupportD A fundamenta ac3 of
support from the &AP has aways been one of the ma*or obstaces for passing comprehensi#e reform
egisation! and indeed this seemed to be the case this year after the )i passed by the Senate was struc3 down by Congress9
>owe#er! more and more &AP members are reai8ing the significance of the Batino #ote and
understanding that passing comprehensi#e immigration reform is the most significant way of securing
support from Batino #oters 9 A Huy po from Batino Decisions found that immigration reform was the most important
issue facing the Batino community for +/ percent of those sur#eyed9 2he po aso found that ?/ percent of those 7uestioned were
dissatisfied with the *ob %epubicans were doing on the issue9 2he sur#ey aso found the 5< percent woud be more i3ey to support a
%epubican congressiona candidate if immigration reform was passed with %epubican eadership9 %epubican candidates ha#e
become aware of the significance of immigration reform for the party9 $#en in traditionay conser#ati#e %epubican stronghods i3e
2e;as! candidates are turning towards immigration reform9 According to %epubican strategist and CMM en $spaYo
commentator Huan >ernande8! 1it aso woudnt surprise me if after the primary! the candidates mo#e
to the center and support reform9 For %epubicans to stay in eadership in 2e;as! we must propery address
immigration9G 2he March ./04 primaries wi be a 3ey moment in determining how reform progressesD %epubican Strategist Hohn
Feehery suggests! F2he timing on this is #ery important9 Jhat was stupid to do becomes smart to do a itte bit ater in the year9G
Ance the primaries are o#er! &AP members wi ha#e the chance to impement reform egisation
without fear of chaenges from the right9 .9 Begai8ation A#er Citi8enshipD Jhie the Senates ./05 immigration reform bi was
struc3 down by Congress! &AP party members ha#e indicated that they wi support egisation which
fa#ors egai8ation of undocumented immigrants o#er a path to citi8enship9 Meanwhie! a recent sur#ey from Pew
%esearch >ispanic 2rends Pro*ect demonstrated that @@ percent of >ispanic aduts beie#e that egai8ing immigrants and remo#ing
the fear of deportation is more important than a pathway to citi8enship (athough citi8enship is sti important to -< percent of
Batinos sur#eyed96 As C)S suggests! FMumbers i3e these coud gi#e e#erage to awma3ers who are interested in ma3ing some
reforms to the ega immigration system! but not necessariy offering any 3ind of citi8enship9G If >ouse %epubicans offered
egai8ation egisation for the undocumented community! this coud put pressure on the President to
compromise9 And whie this 3ind of reform woud not be as comprehensi#e as the Senates bi! a bipartisan agreement woud be
a significant achie#ement towards accompishing reform9 59 Acti#ism Steps "pD ./05 saw one of the biggest surges in grassroots
acti#ism from immigration supporters! and poitica eaders started to isten9 2he hunger stri3e outside the Jhite >ouse was a
particuary significant demonstration and drew #isits of soidarity from a number of eaders from both sides of Congress! incuding
the President and First Bady9 Immigration reform acti#ists ha#e promised 1we wi be bac3 in ./0491
Indeed! ./04 promises to be a year of e#en greater acti#ism9 Acti#ist $iseo Medina has pedged that immigrant
ad#ocacy groups woud #isit Fas many congressiona districts as possibeG in ./04 to ensure further support9 Protests! raies and
marchers are i3ey to increase in ./04! putting greater pressure on Congress to pass legislation9
Such #isua! #oca protests wi be 3ey in ensuring comprehensi#e reform9 49 BeadershipD As immigration reform comes to the fore!
party eaders wi step up in ./04 to ensure change is achie#ed9 Jhie President Abama has made cear his support for
comprehensi#e reform! >ouse Spea3er Hohn )oehner pre#iousy stated that he had Fno intentionG of negotiating with the
Senate on their comprehensi#e immigration bi9 >owe#er! towards the end of ./05! it seemed that %epresentati#e )oehner was
changing his tune9 In Mo#ember! President Abama re#eaed that Fthe good news is! *ust this past wee3 Spea3er )oehner said that he
is Fhopefu we can ma3e progressG on immigration reform9G As if to pro#e the point! )oehner has recenty hired top
aide %ebecca 2aent to wor3 on immigration reform 9 &ith bipartisan leadership firmly
focused on immigration reform and party members on both sides reai8ing the poitica importance of the issue!
comprehensive legislation is one thing !e can be sure of in 281B .
1NC 2griculture
No farm labor shortage !ages are decreasing !hile profits are increasing
CN"C 12 (FJhat the In#isibe Farm Babor Shortage Is %eay AboutG 00,.<! pg onine at httpD,,www9cnbc9com,id,@//0+@<.6
Despite the absoute ac3 of e#idence of anything approaching a farm-abor shortage! compaints
about this in#isibe menace continue to ma3e headines9 >ereVs how a recent piece from the Jashington bureau of
&annett beginsD Farmers from Ari8ona to Mew Ior3 are strugging to find enough peope to har#est their crops this season! a
shortage they bame on state and federa aws designed to crac3 down on the migrant abor that ma3es up the bu3 of the nationVs
seasona farmwor3ers9 1Je see shortages in a parts of the country!1 said Nristi )oswe! director of congressiona reations for the
American Farm )ureau9 1Farmers are strugging with fewer bodies out there to har#est the crop9 2heyVre definitey stressed91
Farmers with abor-intensi#e crops or i#estoc3! incuding fruit! #egetabes! nuts! Christmas trees and dairy cows say they are being
hit especiay hard9 1JeV#e got neighbors iteray competing against each other *ust to ha#e enough of a wor3force to har#est their
crops!1 )oswe said9 >ea#en forefendZ Meighbors 1iteray competing against each other91 ItVs practicay a ci#i war9 2he fact is that
there is no data whatsoe#er to support the aeged farm abor crisis9 2he atest data! issued from the Department of Agricuture on
Mo#ember .?! shows that abor e;penses on farms ha#e increased *ust /9? percent o#er the past year9
Costs for hired abor ! those who wor3 on the farm ong-term! are up *ust /9@ percent 9 Costs for
contract abor! the har#est-time pic3ers! are up *ust 09@ percent9 In other words! abor costs are we- beow the e#e of
genera price infation9 In fact! farm abor costs are sti beow where they were in .//- on a nomina basis9 In rea
terms! abor costs are faing for farmers9 2his doesnVt mean a is we for the farmer9 2here are genuine chaenges
and for the first time in years! farm profits seem set to fa this year9 2he Department of Agricuture is pro*ecting
farm re#enue to come in at a record P44-9@ biion ! which is a 49+ percent gain o#er ast year 9
)ut e;penses are rising for farms9 2he big increases in e;penses are the cost of feed (up P0.9. biion! or 05 percent6!
seed (up P.90 biion! or 009< percent6! fertii8er (up P09+ biion! or +95 percent6! and pesticides (up P090 biion! or < percent69
2hese increases dwarf the P.// miion increase in abor costs spread across the nation9 If there
were a abor shortage! weVd see the price of farm abor rising rapidy9 Je *ust donVt see thatE
indicating that there is no shortage at a 9 2here is! instead! a consist cry from the farm obby for
poicy ma3ers to adopt poicies aimed at owering abor costs9 &annet reports! for e;ampe! that 1the
American Farm )ureau and other farm groups are wor3ing on a pan to present to the new Congress that woud aow more migrant
aborers to wor3 egay on "9S9 farms91 2hatVs what a this noise is reay aboutD enacting poicies to crush aready ow farm wages by
aowing farmers to import more foreign wor3ers9
Can+t solve 7exican ag competitiveness !hich pulls !or/ers out of the CS
CS not /ey countries li/e China0 4ndia0 Da/istan0 and regions li/e the 7iddle East
and South 2merica are also /ey also means status -uo solves food
shortages
Food insecurity doesn+t cause conflict no correlation and alt causes
7ax!ell 12 Danie Ma;we! %esearch Director for Food Security and Compe; $mergencies: Professor: MA>A Director9 05-04
S$P2$M)$% ./0.9 FFood Security and Its Impications for Poitica StabiityD A >umanitarian Perspecti#e9G
httpD,,www9fao9org,fieadmin,tempates,cfs[high[e#e[forum,documents,FS-Impications-Poitica[Stabiity-Ma;we9pdf
Se#era potentia concusions emerge from this discussion9 First! the causa reationship between food security
and poitica stabiity in humanitarian emergencies is compe; and difficut to generai8e that is to say that food
insecurity can be caused by confict,poitica instabiity! and poitica instabiity can be caused by food
insecurity9 Miitari8ed confict an e;treme form of poitica instabiity has ceary been a ma*or dri#er of humanitarian emergencies!
particuary since the end of the cod war! with high e#es of food insecurity a common conse7uence of these emergencies9 >owe#er!
at the same time! many of the oca dri#ers of confict ha#e been reated to contro o#er and and other natura resources! which are
utimatey in3ed to peope s i#eihoods and therefore to their food security (Aino#i! >emrich! S %usso! .//-69 In most of these
emergencies! it isn t reay possibe to specify the independent and dependent #ariabes in the
reationship9 2he reationship can be understood in any gi#en conte;t! but it is circuar and iterati#e! not inear9 And! it shoud
aso be noted! that there isn t aways any particuary demonstrabe reationship between the two9
Substantia e#es of food insecurity can e;ist without there being any dri#er reated to poitica
instabiity! and without necessariy causing ma*or poitica instabiity 9 >ence! a certain amount of caution
is *ustified regarding any genera theory of the in3 between the two9 Second! there are some common dri#ers of both
poitica instabiity and food insecurity9 Cimate change is at east party impicated for both in the Darfur
confict! for e;ampeD as rainfa patterns changed! nomadic came herders had to migrate farther and farther southwards to find dry
season gra8ing and water! which brought them increasingy into confict with other ethnic and i#eihoods groups and made the ac3
of a designated homeand or Dar for the nomadic groups more e#ident (Ioung et a9! .//@69 Meedess to say! the Darfur confict was
7uic3y poitici8ed by other actors predominanty the ruing party in Nhartoum for their own purposes! so it woud be wrong to
bame the Darfur crisis predominanty on cimate change9 Me#ertheess! it i3ey payed a crucia underying roe9 Increasing
fre7uency of drought and cimate #ariabiity is e7uay impicated in food security crises esewhere9 It seems uni3ey that
there wi be any change in the foreseeabe future in a number of dri#ers of food insecurityD the #oatiity of short-term
weather impacts and medium-term cimate change impacts! the #oatiity of goba and oca food prices! or the number of
ocai8ed conficts (ripe for manipuation the way Darfur or Somaia were69 In other words! the number of ocai8ed
food security crises is uni3ey to decrease 9 2his has ma*or impications for both humanitarian preparedness and
response and for poicy ma3ers worried more broady about the impications for poitica stabiity! notwithstanding the caution
raised abo#e about generai8ing the reationship between food insecurity and poitica stabiity9 2he socia protection responses
roed out on a nationa scae in $thiopia! and pioted in a number of other countries ha#e certainy made progress in pro#iding a
safety net but the *ury is sti out on whether such programs actuay offer a broady accessibe adder out of po#erty and chronic food
insecurity9 It is i3ey that substantiay more resources wi be re7uired to achie#e the atter ob*ecti#e at
scae! and the infrastructure and capacity needed for impementation are i3ey inade7uate in the
most affected countries9
Cribb concedes several alt causes and the aff doesn+t solve other actors
"ittmann 18 KMar3! 2imes Apinion coumnist! the ead food writer for 2he 2imes Maga8ine! and a coumnist for the 2imes
Dining section! %e#iew of The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can do to Avoid it! August .4! FSeeing a 2ime
(Soon6 Jhen Je A )e Dieting!G httpD,,www9nytimes9com,./0/,/-,.@,boo3s,.@boo39htmL
If there is a way out of the morass! rationaity and fairness wi be its basis! and here Mr9 Cribb is impassioned! e#en inspiring9 >e
woud ha#e society mandate food and waste composting (waste shoud not be wasted6: eiminate
subsidies to the biggest agricuture companies: and finance research for new technoogy9 ()ig Food! he
beie#es! shoud be compeed to contribute to this9 )ra#o96 >e proposes subsidi8ing sma farms for their
stewardship of the earth! and paying them fairer prices for production : ta;ing food to refect its
true costs to the en#ironment : reguating practices that counter sustainabiity and rewarding
those that promote it: and educating the pubic about the true costs of food9 FAn entire year of
primary schooingG shoud be de#oted to the importance of growing and eating food! he suggests9
Few e;perts without #ested interests in corporate agricuture woud disagree with any of this! though little progress is
being made . Indi#iduas! howe#er! can ma3e hepfu changes more 7uic3y9 Dietary change is primary! and can be as simpe
as eating a saad instead of a cheeseburger and an appe instead of a bag of chips9 Jaste ess food9 Compost9 &arden! e#en if (or
especiay if6 you i#e in a city9 Choose sustainabe food! incuding fish9 And so on9 None of these practices !ill
matter much unless they+re adopted !orld!ide . F$#en if Morth America ns and
$urope ans ha#ed their meat and dairy consumption !G Mr9 Cribb writes! Fthe sa#ing coud be
competey swamped by the demand from si; hundred miion newy affuent Indian and
Chinese consumers9G Iet Mr9 Cribb is not hopeess: he predicts that we e#entuay Funoc3 new insights capabe of ma3ing
profound gains in food production and sustainabiity on a par with those of the &reen %e#oution9G )ut finding a sustainabe
farming system is Fperhaps the greatest chaenge e#er faced in the ten thousand years since
agricuture began!G he writes9 If the chaenge is not met! were going to be reading scarier boo3s than this one9
8? food shoc/s disprove the impact to food prices and the E2rab SpringF disproves
nuclear or even global escalation
1NC 7echani'ation
Conventional ag is sustainable(1<8 year long study proves
Anthony $re!avas! ./8B9 PhD in )iochemistry from the "ni#ersity Coege of Bondon! Professor of pant physioogy and
moecuar bioogy at the Institute of Ce and Moecuar )ioogy! "ni#ersity of $dinburgh9 FA critica assessment of organic farming-
and-food assertions with particuar respect to the "N and the potentia en#ironmenta benefits of no-ti agricuture!G Crop
Protection Co .5! p?@?-?-0! PDF atD
httpD,,www9bioogy9ed9ac9u3,research,institutes,pant,pages,staff[pages,2[2rewa#as[staffpage9htm9
2 he )roadba3 e;periment has now asted 0+/ years being started in 0-45 by Bawes and &ibert ()roadba3!
.//.: %asmussen et a9! 0<<-69 In two sections of this e;periment! winter wheat has been grown
continuousy on and either gi#en ony manure (5@ tonnes,ha6 or ony minera fertiisers9 2his far-
sighted e;periment! sti of direct ree#ance to sustainabe agricuture concerns! has shown that the yieds from
the two treatments ha#e remained identica for 0+/ years9 Iieds ha#e changed in parae in the two sections
with the introduction of new winter wheat #arieties! herbicides! fungicides and a the constanty impro#ing agronomies that are now
part of farming9 It is 7uite cear from these data that! within the con\nes of the e;periment! con#entiona
agricuture using mineras is sustainabe: 0+/ years is ong enough9 2he soi carbon content has
increased in the manure-ony treatment by more than two-fod but this has not enabed a higher
yied to be obtained (Hohnston! 0<<069 2he soi carbon content has increased in the mineras- ony treatment by about ./R!
the resut of ea#ing root materia in the soi9 Jhether such e7ui#aence in yieds o#er 0+/ years woud be obtained with other crops
is not 3nown but the e;periment ma3es the critica point: that soube minera-ony treatments do
not damage the soi from the point of #iew of the crop pant 9 >owe#er no current farmer in the
"N woud use a system without rotation and therefore this aspect of the )roadba3 e;periment
does not now accuratey mimic either con#entiona or organic farming9 Pests are better deat
with by rotating crop use9 Furthermore identica yieds between the manure-ony and minera-
ony section were obtained by using #ery arge amounts of manure (5@ tonnes,ha69 )ut the
conse7uence was that nitrate run-off from the manured section was much higher than the
minera-ony section9 2he 7uestion of sustainabiity was aso e;amined with other ong-term @/-
year e;periments at Joburn and Sa;mundham which commenced in the 0<th century and is described in detai by
Hohnston (0<<06 and by %usse and Coec3er (0<5+69 2hese e;perimenta set-ups used either singe continuous winter wheat or the
Morfo3 four course rotation9 )ut simiar resuts were obtained : use of minera sats-ony compared to
manure-ony did not diminish yied in reati#e terms9
4ndustrial ag is /ey to maintain high yields(this prevents billions of deaths0
massive species extinctions0 and massive methane !arming from organic
co!s
Dennis 29 2very! +,0+,8?9 Director of the >udson InstituteVs Center for &oba Food Issues9 FJi the &reens Sacrifice 2heir
Awn FSacred CowsGOG Canada Free Press! httpD,,www9hudson9org,inde;9cfmOfuseaction]pubication[detaisSid]@+459
Arganics are not the answerD Jired notes that organic farms yied ess food per acre9 Actuay! the organic yieds
are ony about haf as high as con#entiona because the !orld has an urgent shortage of
manure9 So a- organic farming woud gi#e up haf the current word food output! threaten ing
h unger for billions and extinction for species !hose !ild forests get cleared to
plant more lo!yield crops9 Additionay! organic steers are on pasture much onger! burping
up t!ice as much methane per pound as a feedot steer! according to the "Ms FAA Eand
needing three times as much of the words scarce and9
$urn(rate of species loss is at alltime lo! because of industrial ag
Dennis 2very! -,.-,./8#9 M9S9 Agricutura $conomics! 2he "ni#ersity of Jisconsin-Madison! Director of the >udson
InstituteVs Center for &oba Food Issues9 FSpecies $;tinction %ate Bowest in @// Iears!G >udson Institute!
httpD,,www9hudson9org,inde;9cfmOfuseaction]pubication[detaisSid]5/.09
2he word is osing wid species ony haf as rapidy as a hundred years ago! and the rate of
e;tinctions is now the owest in fi#e hundred years9 Moreo#er! man3ind now has enough 3nowedge
of high-yied farming! and forest and widife management that we shoudnVt ha#e to suffer massi#e wid
species osses in the future9 2his is the good news according to Dr9 Mar3 Coins! a top e;pert at the "M $n#ironmenta
Program9 2he number of e;tinctions (twenty6 among birds! mammas and fish in the ast third of the twentieth
century was ony haf as great as in the e;tinctions (forty6 in the ast third of the nineteenth and no
greater than the rate of e;tinctions in the si;teenth century! according to the "M$PVs recenty pubished Jord
Atas of )iodi#ersity9 2he Atas totas +?@ 3nown wid species ost in the ast 4// years! though the count of -5 mammas and 0.-
fish and birds gone fore#er is more accurate than the estimate of e;tinct pants and insects9 2he bad news is that the rate of 3nown
species e;tinctions is sti one- to two-hundred times as high as woud be e;pected with no humans on the panet9 Dr9 Coins!
Director of "M$PVs Jord Conser#ation Monitoring Center in $ngand! says! 1Je 3now enough about the wordVs
species and eco-systems to ensure that the wordVs biodi#ersity is managed effecti#ey9 &i#e nature
haf a chance and it wi ta3e care of itsef91 2he Atas says there is e#idence that popuations of some species
targeted for reco#ery are indeed reco#ering 1significanty91 Dr9 CoinsV optimism is supported by the fact that
most of the big mamma species (and some fightess birds6 that ha#e gone e;tinct were 3ied off by prehistoric man hunting with
arrows and spears9 Many more e;tinct species ost their habitat to the e;pansion of primiti#e farming
o#er the ast se#era thousand years9 2he biggest reason for the ower e;tinction rate in the
twentieth century is undoubtedy the &reen %e#oution of the 0<+/s9 >igh-yied seeds and
fertii8ers roughy triped crop yieds on much of the wordVs best and9 As a resut! humans are
farming ony a itte more and today than they did a hundred years ago! e#en though human numbers
ha#e increased from 09+ biion to +95 biion9 More of the ogged forests are being repanted with trees instead
of being panted to ow-yied crops9
No !etland biodiversity shenanigans
Singer and 2very 1 KFred! President of the Science and $n#ironmenta Poicy Pro*ect and
Distinguished %esearch Professor T &eorge Mason! Prof9 $meritus $n#ironmenta Science T
"CA and First Director of the Mationa Jeather Sateite Ser#ice! and Dennis! Director of &oba
Food Issues T >udson Institute! F"nstoppabe &oba JarmingD $#ery 0!@// Iears!G p9 0+/-
0+0L
A continued sow rise in sea e#es is probaby the biggest probem for humans i3ey to arise from a moderate goba warming9 Si;
inches per century is sow! but if it continues for the ne;t fi#e hundred years! say! it woud cause significant coasta changes9 Sti!
this is a smaer probem than the aarmists ha#e caimed9 2he word woudnVt ose its wetands due to rising sea
e#es9 2he wetands and their species woud simpy mo#e sighty upsope! as they ha#e so many times in
the past9 2he amount of and in#o#ed woud be tri#ia9 2he rea impact woud be on man-made
structures! which woud ha#e to be abandoned or mo#ed inand9 $#en here! the probem is not great9 >ow many
buidings near coasts are buit with the e;pectation that they wi ast 0// years! .// years! or e#en
ongerO If we are wise! we wi a#oid encouraging new buiding and de#eopment in ow-ying coasta pains9 2ougher 8oning for ow-
ying areas and tougher buiding codes for areas within reach of storm surges ma3e sense! whether or not sea e#es are rising9 2he
massi#e probems inficted by >urricane Natrina on the city of Mew Areans and the communities of the &uf Coast in .//@
underscore that point! and remind us that norma hurricane ris3s are ampified as our cities grow and our peope see3 waterfronts
on which to i#e and pay9 At the #ery east! America shoud stop encouraging high-ris3 waterside buiding through go#ernment-
financed food insurance9 Hohn Christy! Aabama state cimatoogist! recenty testified before CongressD Ane of my duties in the office
of the State Cimatoogist is to inform de#eopers and industries of the potentia cimate ris3s and rewards in Aabama9 I am #ery
fran3 in pointing out the dangers of beachfront property aong the &uf Coast9 A sea e#e rise of + in9 o#er 0// years! or
e#en @/ years! is miniscue compared with the storm surge of a powerfu hurricane i3e Fredric3 or Camie9
Coasta areas threatened today wi be threatened in the future9 2he sea e#e rise! which wi continue! wi be #ery sow
and thus gi#e decades of opportunity for adaptation! if one is abe to sur#i#e the storms9 2he main point I stress!
to state and oca agencies as we as industries! is that they in#est today in infrastructure that can withstand the se#ere weather
e#ents that we 3now are going to continue9 2hese in#estments incude e;tending foodway easements! impro#ement in storm water
drainage systems and a#oiding hurricane-prone coasta de#eopment! among other actions91 555 More than one obser#er has
decared that we woud ha#e to 1buid a di3e around )angadesh1 to pre#ent higher sea e#es from destroying that owying country
and drowning miions of peope9 Actuay! buiding a di3e around )angadesh may not be a bad idea anyway9 2he probem is
not sea e#es per se! but the storm surges from huge tropica cycones that ha#e hit the country e#ery three to four years
in recent decades9 )angadesh has buit a arge number of 1typhoon towers1 that aow the popuation to cimb abo#e the foods with
the beongings they can carry9 >owe#er! the foods of sat water often stay for wee3s! spreading disease! poisoning sois! hating
economic acti#ity! and inficting massi#e amounts of physica damage on buidings! roads! bridges! and water systems9 A di3e woud
be e;pensi#e! and it woud ha#e to be done with great sensiti#ity to the coasta wetands! but perhaps it wi need to be done9 Jhat
about ow-ying isandsO As pre#iousy noted! the 2u#auans do not appear to be threatened by rising sea e#es9 )ut if they were!
emigration does not present insurmountabe probems! since there are ony about 00!/// 2u#auans9 And! the 2u#auans might e#en
prefer it9 2he point here is that we i#e on a panet where the cimate has been changing constanty for the past biion years9 2here
wi aways be an ebb and fow between and and water! and their interface wi be rich with competing
organisms9 Je e;pect a continued abundance of the coras! coasta forests! and horseshoe crabsEnot
to mention sand feas! biting fies! mos7uitoes! and beach combers9
Scarcity encourages cooperation that !ill spillover to other issues
Gammoud 11EMA in Internationa Affairs T Bebanese American "ni#ersity K%ayan Amine >ammoud! Jater Scarcity As A
Jindow of Apportunity For A Peacefu Settement In 2he Midde $ast! A thesis Submitted in partia fufiment of the re7uirements
for the degree of Master of Arts in Internationa Affairs! Bebanese American "ni#ersity! Hanuary ./00L
Jhie water war scenarios in the Midde $ast are by a means #iabe and egitimate! not ony based on past e;periences but aso on
the basis of the current hardiner positions of the different parties! other perspecti#es may aso be possibe9 Despite the history of
#ioence in the region o#er the past century! it is e#ident that these manifestations ha#e not brought us any coser to reso#ing the
water dispute! and it is uni3ey that future wars wi carry any of the conficting parties to a fina and permanent cooperation9
Additionay! uni3e other eements of confict! water emerges as the only ma,or factor that
accords no respect or consideration to the poitica ! strategic! miitary or geographic characteristics or
interests of the in#o#ed parties9 Mot ony does the issue of water impose its presence and reaities on the
poitica and strategic agendas of the nations in the region! but it is aso! more often than not the ony issue
with which poitica eaders cannot practice the game of patience or the adopt a of F wait-and-see G9 Syria! for
e;ampe! has adopted a posture of patience for o#er three decades in its negotiations with Israe! and Israe maintained a simiar
position during its occupation of South Bebanon for o#er two decades: but whie 7uestions pertaining to territory
and borders can wait for as ong as poiticians find an interest in paying the waiting game!
!ater imposes its o!n rules9
Se#ere water shortages cannot and do not wait ! especiay in times of se#ere droughts that may ast for years9
Additionay! the deterioration of water 7uaity! a probem facing a nations in the region! is aso another serious issue
that can ony be reso#ed through measures ta3en in coordination by the different conficting payers
that share water sources and pathways (Nhaifa! .//0: Priscoi S Jof! .//<69 Poitica payers in the region
may be con#inced for ideoogica or other reasons that they may be abe to win water conficts in
the ong term! but se#ere water issues often ha#e their own schedue and are uni3ey to offer
haw3ish poitica eaders and war-oriented ideoogists the eeway they hope to ha#e to reso#e the
confict by #ioent means9 "timatey! peaceful alternatives must be considered 9
It is out of these considerations that the perspecti#e and rationae of this dissertation e#o#ed9 Jhie the confict in the Midde $ast
may be among the most compicated on the internationa e#e! Aytemi8 (.//06 points out that 4/R of the word
popuation share internationa ri#ers and basins and that on #arious occasions! enemies ha#e had
to pursue aternati#e peaceful solutions as the ony #iabe means possibe to dea with their water
needs and pressures9 2his has e#en been the case among some nations that ha#e fought mutipe wars
o#er historic! reigious and ideoogica causes as is the case in the 7id dle East and other parts of the
word! such as Da/istan ! )angadesh and 4ndia 9
2he main aim of this paper is not to e;pore the potentia soutions for water crisis soutions in the Midde $ast9 %ather!
the main ob*ecti#e is to e;pore the possibiity of utii8ing the probems and issues associated with water resources! as a
potentia !indo! of opportunity to bring the conficting parties in the Midde $ast together toward a
peacefu resoution9 2his approach differs from pre#ious approaches to the Midde $ast confict in at east two ways9
First of a! it does not assume that the 7uestion of water is a residua issue that wi be reso#ed aong with the bigger cooperation
pac3age o#er and and borders9 %ather! it hods that the confict o#er water and the nature of the water crisis can be used
as a means to set the conficting payers in a mode of cooperation and coordination that wi hep them
address their shared water needs peacefuy and that may set the groundwor3 for a !ider
peaceful resolution in the ong term9
Secondy! this approach assumes that the water crisis in the Midde $ast represents a window of opportunity
because of the #ery nature of water itsef9 2o eaborate! the issues of a water crisis are pressuring!
o#erwheming and immediate by their nature 9 In other words! this is an issue that offers
ideologists and politicians very little freedom to e;ercise poitica patience and
procrastination ! especiay when considering the magnitude and e;tent of the effects of water shortages and of
thedeterioration of water 7uaity on the economic and socia interests of their constituencies9 Pg9 4-+
Failure ris/s !orld !ar 444
Sterling 11EMA in $uropean Studies KBord Stering )S9 in Poi Sci and >istory6! F2he )atte for SyriaD >ow Jord Jar III
Ji )egin!G )efore ItVs Mews! Jednesday! August ..! ./0. .5D@/! pg9 httpD,,tinyur9com,d-nn8ugL
As the aiance of MA2A! Israe and the conser#ati#e &uf Cooperati#e Counci (monarchies continue with their reentess
dri#e to destroy the generay popuar (with the Syrian peope6 go#ernment of Syria and using the coming a-out batte
in Syria as a bac/door to a regional !ar with Iran and Bebanon! &a8a and Paestine ! other
Ma*or Powers ha#e grown increasingy concerned 9 %ussia! China and members of the Coecti#e Security
2reaty Argani8ation (CS2A6 and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Argani8ation (SCA6 ha#e made cear their
opposition to any further gobaist,MA2A,Qionist aggression in the Morth Africa-Midde $ast-Southwest Asia arena9 In fact
both %ussia and China ha#e emphasi8ed that their Cita Mationa Interests are in#o#ed in Syria
and Iran and ha#e warned of the dangers of nuclear !ar and of a $hird &orld &ar beginning if the
Jest continues with its aggressi#e operations9 Mucear armed Pa3istan is drifting towards a war state with the "nited States as it
continues to refuse to aow MA2A resuppy to the Afghan Jar through Pa3istan territory and increasingy ob*ects to the use of
armed American drone aircraft against targets in Pa3istan9
2he horrific Fase Fag massacres that the MA2A! Israei and &CC trained,e7uipped,ed foreign mercenaries ha#e committed in
Syria! against unarmed ci#iians incuding arge numbers of women and chidren! are designed to foo segments of the western
popuation into supporting yet another war9 2hey do not! howe#er! foo the eaders of the #arious a;is powers that are coaescing
around the SCA and CS2A in opposition to further miitary aggression against Syria and Iran9 2hese nations are carefuy watching
the depoyment of commando assets in and near Syria and Iran! the buidup of na#a! air and and forces in the Midde $ast! and the
de#eoping Fase Marrati#e that the gobaist,Qionist mainstream news media are putting out concerning the FnecessityG of Fdoing
something to sa#e the Syrian ci#iians from the Assad go#ernmentG9
2he issue of armed inter#ention was a 3ey matter at the SCA Summit Hune +th and ?th in )ei*ing9 7assive military
intervention by 5ussia and China is being panned for if the MA2A,Israei,&CC aiance crosses
the ine with a miitary inter#ention against the Syrian! Iranian! and Bebanese nations9 2his miitary inter#ention has
a most profound danger of not ony in#o#ing w eapons-of- m ass- d estruction but of beginning the
2hird Jord JarZ
%ussia is acti#ey preparing a significant number of its best ground forces for a rapid
inter#ention in Syria9 2hese forces incude the 0@th Di#ision! the ?+th Airborne Di#ision! and )ac3 Sea Spet8na8 forces
(in369 Additionay! the %ussian Air Force in the South Miitary District has been rearmed with the atest fighter aircraft and
heicopters for combat with American,Israei,MA2A air forces9 %ussian Army forces in Armenia ha#e been
strengthened and additiona attac3 and assaut heicopters added and the famiies of its officers ha#e been e#acuated bac3 to
%ussia (in369 According to %ussian reports! the %ussians e;pect to dri#e through &eorgia into friendy Armenia to in3 up with
Iranian forces northwest of 2ehran9
2he %ussians wi see/ to establish their dominance in the Caucasus and Caspian
states and to finay secure miitary faciities on the Persian &uf and &uf of Aman9 2hey are
apt to be supported by a arge number of Chinese ground troops and fighter aircraft depoying
through aied Pa3istan into Iran9
2he %ussian and Chinese armed forces wi come prepared for fu M)C (nuclear0 biological
and chemical 6 war fare: t actica n ucear w eapons are apt to be a#aiabe to senior commanders
but re7uiring Moscows and )ei*ings authori8ation prior to use9 A;is forces amost certainy wi be supported by the deady S-5//
Air Defense System and the %ussian forces may aso use the e#en more ad#anced S-4// Air Defense System9 2op of the ine Su3hoi
fighter aircraft and AJACS type aircraft wi be depoyed9 Ma#a engagements may ta3e pace in the "lac / Sea
and 7editerranean Sea between the %ussian Ma#y and MA2A na#ies! with additiona na#a
cashes in the Caspian Sea 9
Israei and MA2A forces may see3 to do an end run around any %ussian,Chinese,CSA-CS2A counter-inter#ention by
a 7uic3 coup de main utii8ing rapid commando attac3 s on 3ey Syrian and Iranian eadership
targets and missie,air attac3s on guided missie aunch sites in Syria! Iran! Bebanon! and &a8a-
Paestine9 2his wi not pre#ent %ussian and Chinese forces from entering the war but may
trigger a massi#e Iranian and Syrian use of 2dvanced "iological !eapons against the MA2A
homeands in $urope and Morth America and against Israe and certain &CC states (in369
2he Jord at arge has entered the most dangerous time in >uman >istory as e#ents continue to unfod in
the Midde $ast and enter their cima; phase9
No !arming historical data disproves the climate change hypothesis and
statistical analysis disproves the predictive capability of climate models
you can+t beat this card
Fyfe et al 1# KHohn! %esearch Scientist with the Canadian Centre for Cimate Modeing! with Mathan &iett! %esearch Scientist
with the Canadian Centre for Cimate Modeing! and Francis Qwiers! Biteray wrote the boo3 on Cimate Statistics! Director of the
Pacific Cimate Impacts Consortium and Ad*unct Professor in the Dept9 of Mathematics and Statistics of the "ni#ersity of Cictoria!
September! FA#erestimated &oba Jarming A#er the Past ./ Iears!G Nature! Co9 5! p9 ?+?-<L A&
&oba mean surface temperature o#er the past ./ years (0<<5=./0.6 rose at a rate of /904 ^ /9/+ _C
per decade (<@R confidence inter#a609 2his rate of warming is significantly slo!er than that
simulated by the cimate models participating in Phase @ of the Couped Mode Intercomparison Pro*ect (CMIP@69 2o
iustrate this! we considered trends in goba mean surface temperature computed from 111
simulations of the cimate by 5? CMIP@ modes (see Suppementary Information69 2hese modes generay
simuate natura #ariabiity E incuding that associated with the $ MiYo=Southern Asciation and e;posi#e #ocanic
eruptions E as we as estimate the combined response of cimate to changes in greenhouse gas
concentrations! aeroso abundance (of suphate! bac3 carbon and organic carbon! for e;ampe6! o8one
concentrations (tropospheric and stratospheric6! and use (for e;ampe! deforestation6 and soar #ariabiity9 )y
a#eraging simuated temperatures ony at ocations where corresponding obser#ations e;ist! we find an a#erage
simuated rise in goba mean surface temperature of /95/ ^ /9/. _C per decade (using <@R confidence
inter#as on the mode a#erage69 2he obser#ed rate of warming gi#en abo#e is less than half of this
simulated rate ! and ony a few simuations pro#ide warming trends within the range of
obser#ationa uncertainty (Fig9 0a69 2he inconsistency between obser#ed and simuated goba warming is e#en
more stri3ing for temperature trends computed o#er the past fifteen years (0<<-=./0.69 For this period! the
obser#ed trend of /9/@ ^ /9/- _C per decade is more than four times smaer than the a#erage
simuated trend of /9.0 ^ /9/5 _C per decade (Fig9 0b69 It is worth noting that the obser#ed trend o#er this period E not
significanty different from 8ero E suggests a temporary *hiatus+ in global !arming .=49 2he di#ergence
between obser#ed and CMIP@- simuated goba warming begins in the eary 0<</s! as can be seen when comparing obser#ed and
simuated running trends from 0<?/=./0. (Fig9 .a and .b for ./-year and 0@-year running trends! respecti#ey69 2he e#idence!
therefore! indicates that the current generation of cimate modes (when run as a group! with the CMIP@
prescribed forcings6 do not reproduce the obser#ed goba warming o#er the past ./ years! or the
sowdown in goba warming o#er the past fifteen years9 2his interpretation is supported by
statistical tests of the nu hypothesis that the obser#ed and mode mean trends are e7ua! assuming that eitherD (06 the
modes are e;changeabe with each other (that is! the truth pus error #iew6: or (.6 the modes are e;changeabe with each other and
with the obser#ations (see Suppementary Information69 Differences between obser#ed and simuated ./-year trends ha#e p #aues
(Suppementary Information6 that drop to cose to 8ero by 0<<5=./0. under assumption (06 and to /9/4 under assumption (.6 (Fig9
.c69 >ere we note that the smaer the p #aue is! the stronger the e#idence against the nu hypothesis9 An this basis! the rarity of the
0<<5=./0. trend difference under assumption (06 is ob#ious9 "nder assumption (.6! this impies that such an inconsistency is ony
e;pected to occur by chance once in @// years! if ./-year periods are considered statisticay independent9 Simiar resuts appy to
trends for 0<<-=./0. (Fig9 .d69 In concusion! we re*ect the nu hypothesis that the obser#ed and mode mean trends are e7ua at
the 0/R e#e9 Ane possibe e;panation for the discrepancy is that forced and interna #ariation might
combine differenty in obser#ations than in modes9 For e;ampe! the forced trends in models
are modulated up and down by simuated se7uences of $MSA e#ents! which are not expected to
coincide !ith the observed se-uence of such e#ents9 For this reason the moderating infuence on
goba warming that arises from the decay of the 0<<- $ MiYo e#ent does not occur in the modes at that time9
2hus we empoy here an estabished techni7ue to estimate the impact of $MSA on goba mean temperature! and to
incorporate the effects of dynamicay induced atmospheric #ariabiity and ma*or e;posi#e #ocanic eruptions
@!+9 Athough these three natura #ariations account for some differences between simuated and obser#ed goba
warming! these differences do not substanti#ey change our concusion that observed and
simulated global !arming are not in agreement o#er the past two decades (Fig9 569 Another
source of interna cimate #ariabiity that may contribute to the inconsistency is the Atantic mutidecada osciation? (AMA69
>owe#er! this is difficut to assess as the obser#ed and simuated #ariations in goba temperature that are associated with the
AMA seem to be dominated by a arge and concurrent signa of presumed anthropogenic origin (Suppementary Fig9 S069 It is worth
noting that in any case the AMA has not dri#en cooing o#er the past ./ years9 Another possibe dri#er of the
difference between obser#ed and simuated goba warming is increasing stratospheric aeroso concentrations9 %esuts from
se#era independent datasets show that stratospheric aerosol abundance has increased since
the ate 0<</s! owing to a series of comparati#ey sma tropica #ocanic eruptions- 9 Athough none of the CMIP@
simuations ta3e this into account! two independent sets of mode simuations estimate that
increasing stratospheric aerosos ha#e had a surface cooing impact of about 8.81 HC per decade
since 0<<-!<9 If the CMIP@ modes had accounted for increasing stratospheric aeroso! and had responded with the same surface
cooing impact! the simuations and obser#ations woud be in coser agreement9 Ather factors that contribute to the
discrepancy coud incude a missing decrease in stratospheric !ater vapour 0/ (whose
processes are not we represented in current cimate modes6! errors in aerosol forcing in the CMIP@ modes! a
bias in the prescribed solar irradiance trend ! the possibiity that the transient cimate
sensiti#ity of the CMIP@ modes coud be on a#erage too high 00!0. or a possible unusual episode of
interna cimate #ariabiity not considered abo#e 05!049 "timatey the causes of this inconsistency wi ony be understood
after carefu comparison of simuated interna cimate #ariabiity and cimate mode forcings with obser#ations from the past two
decades! and by waiting to see how goba temperature responds o#er the coming decades9