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R "n !''? 8 !''( annual report BATA was not disclosed the pension fund 8
pro+ident fund lia,ilit% separatel%.
(olicy of .*#* Shoe Company =.anglade"h> ,td. for (rovident -und
$ompan% contri,utes to pro+ident fund according to the emplo%ee7s pa% scale 8
grade of the emplo%ee.
An emplo%ee is eligi,le to get the ,enefit of pro+ident fund when heMshe work with
BATA at least > %ears. "f an emplo%ee lea+es the 6o, after passing > %ears with
?1 9 1 a g e
BATA than BATA will gi+e the actual pro+ident fund sa+ings. "f an emplo%ee lea+es
the 6o, after passing # %ears with BATA than BATA will gi+e the dou,le amount of
the sa+ings of pro+ident fund.
Thus the lia,ilit% recorded for pro+ident fund in three wa%sF these are-
Ser+ice duration - first > %ears . 3o lia,ilit%
Ser+ice duration - > to # %ears . Actual amount of pro+ident fund sa+ings
Ser+ice duration - # %earsS . &ou,le amount of actual pro+ident fund sa+ings
'. /evenue *naly"i"
:e+enues are economic resources earned during a time period. ;irms earn
re+enues from a +ariet% of different sources. 4anufacturers of consumer goods earn
re+enues from sales of their products to distri,utors and to consumers.
?! 9 1 a g e
:e+enue recognition occurs when two critical uncertainties are resol+ed- the product
or ser+ice has ,een pro+ided, and cash collection is reasona,l% likel%. 4anagement
t%picall% has the ,est information on these uncertainties.
Bata ha+e some pro+ision of &ou,t full &e,t in Account :ecei+a,les. "n !''# the
amount was !1,#?9,AAA TL and in !''A it was 1A,1',##> TL and in !''9 it was
1,?#,A#' TL.
3ow the effect of ,ad de,t on current ratio 8 :OA is shown in ,elow ta,le-
Affect on /O*
!''# !''A !''9
2ith pro+ision for
dou,t full de,t
1?.?!I 1#.9AI 1.('I
2ithout pro+ision
for dou,t full de,t
1?.!AI 1#.9I 1.?'I
Affect on Current /atio
!''# !''A !''9
2ith pro+ision for
dou,t full de,t
1.?! 1.?( 1.?#
2ithout pro+ision
for dou,t full de,t
1.?? 1.?# 1.?A
'.' A8pen"e *naly"i"
&epreciation #echni$ue!
The% are following two different depreciation methods for their two different plants.
?> 9 1 a g e
Tongi 1lant- :educing Balance 4ethod
&hamrai 1lant- Straight =ine 4ethod
But the% are not disclosing their asset differentl% for their two plants.
Amployee #raining (rogram
;rom the annual report of !''9 we find out that the% trained ((( emplo%ees in !''A*
!''9. Among them some of the emplo%ees were trained at international le+el. The%
incurred an e<pense against it. The% also ha+e certain ,enefit out of those
emplo%ees. But it is difficult to show the ,enefit in ,alance sheet whether it is BATA7s
asset or emplo%ee7s asset.
Chapter )
(ro"pective *naly"i"
2ith the different factors positi+el% contri,ute to the growth of the stock price of Bata
Shoe $ompan% DBangladeshE ltd, we ha+e anal%zed the trend of different +aria,les
from the fi+e %ear financial statement and detected the growth or reduction of e+er%
?? 9 1 a g e
item. After that we ha+e selected few components which show a growing trend and
positi+el% contri,ute to the growth of Stock 1rice.
!'1'*!'11 !'11*!'1! !'1!*!'1>
A+g. Crowth rateDfor
>%earsE
Sales
:e+enue
1(.'I D1(.>'IE D!?.('IE
3et
"ncome
>.?1I D?.?IE D#IE
The sustaina,le growth rate of sales for !''9 is calculated as g
s
P *'.''9?>I, using
following e)uation-
2here,
T P:atio of total assets to sales
p =3et profit margin on sales
d =di+idend pa%out ratio
& P Total &e,t
5 P 5)uit%
Another growth to ,e considered is the growth rate of Bangladesh C&1. "t is as
follow-
Qear !''( !'' !''# !''A !''9
C&1 growth
rate DIE
?.9 .? . .> ?.9
"n the long run it will ,e sustain as ?I we can assume. So another scenario anal%sis
is done ,% using ?I growth rate.
Ero9th /ate! Scenario5 1
Scenario*1, is assuming the growth rate of 9.1>I as a+erage growth of last >%ears
sales.
Assuming 9.1>I growth rate, it has ,een found that the compan% has e<cess fund,
which can ,e financed distri,uted to pa%off long term de,t and reduce the o,ligations
?( 9 1 a g e
1 1 2 1 1 2 2
1 1 2 1 1 2
E
D
d p T
E
D
d p
g
s
+
+
=
of interest e<penses. The pro6ection sa%s that assuming 9.1>I growth rate, after (
%ears in !'1? 51S of the compan% would ,e ('.A( as well as considering constant
1M5 ratio as constant factor, in %ear !'1? share price would ,e B&T A1#.#1.
The total scenario is illustrated on the ne<t page.
Ero9th /ate! Scenario5 2
Scenario*!, is assuming the growth rate of 1A.(>I as a+erage growth of last >%ears
net income.
Assuming 1A.(>I growth rate, it has ,een found that the compan% re)uired
additional fund to run to sustain the ,usiness in these growth rate. The pro6ection
? 9 1 a g e
sa%s that assuming 1A.(>I growth rate, after ( %ears in !'1? 51S of the compan%
would ,e #.A as well as considering constant 1M5 ratio as constant factor, in %ear
!'1? share price would ,e B&T 1!>.'1.
The total scenario is illustrated on the ne<t page.
Ero9th /ate! Scenario5
Scenario*>, is assuming the growth rate of 1(.!#I as sustaina,le growth rate.
Assuming 1(.!#I growth rate, it has ,een found that the compan% has some e<cess
fund, which can ,e financed distri,uted to pa%off long term de,t and reduce the
o,ligations of interest e<penses. The pro6ection sa%s that assuming 1(.!#I growth
rate, after ( %ears in !'1? 51S of the compan% would ,e .A( as well as
?# 9 1 a g e
considering constant 1M5 ratio as constant factor, in %ear !'1? share price would ,e
B&T 1'#(.1>.
The total scenario is illustrated on the ne<t page.
Ero9th /ate! Scenario5 '
Scenario*?, is assuming the growth rate of ?I as long*term a+g. C&1 growth rate.
Assuming ?I growth rate, it has ,een found that the compan% has huge e<cess
fund, which can ,e financed distri,uted to pa%off long term de,t and reduce the
o,ligations of interest e<penses. The pro6ection sa%s that assuming ?I growth rate,
?A 9 1 a g e
after ( %ears in !'1? 51S of the compan% would ,e >9.9# as well as considering
constant 1M5 ratio as constant factor, in %ear !'1? share price would ,e B&T ?!.#.
The total scenario is illustrated on the ne<t page.
-uture Mar0et (rice (rojection in &ifferent Ero9th /ate
Qear !''9 !'1' !'11 !'1! !'1> !'1?
A+g Sales growth D9.1>IE (!A.> (#>.(> !9.1# A.1 #?9.> A1#.#1
A+g 3et "ncome growth
D1A.(>IE
(!A.> !.19 #?!.!> A#9.# 1'?!.#A 1!>.'1
Sustaina,le growth D1(.!#IE (!A.> 'A.9# #'1.9 A'9.1(( 9>!.#1 1'#(.1>
C&1 growth D?IE (!A.> (?9.?> (#1.?1 (9?.!# 1A.'? ?!.#
?9 9 1 a g e
Chich gro9th rate a""umption i" more appropriateG
Bangladesh current C&1 growth rate is ?.9I D%ear !''9E, and considering longer
period a+erage C&1 growth rate it comes down to around ?I. As an assumption of
?I growth for ne<t ( %ears would ,e most appropriate. $onsidering recent world
wide recession economic condition 8 concern of sa+ing world en+ironment, it would
,e +er% optimistic to assume higher growth rate for future for a footwear compan%.
(lug 1ariable"
The pro forma statements from the a,o+e section indicate the firm will ha+e e<cess
fund if it will grow at all options as all growth rates are lower than the sustaina,le
growth rate of 1(.!#I. The compan% can decrease its de,ts ,% the e<tra fund, thus
will decrease the de,t e)uit% ratio. As the compan% decided to maintain a constant
retention rate, it ends up with e<tra fund at the end of the %ear. "n the current
recession of econom%, it will ,e risk% to do an% new in+estment. So, the compan%
(' 9 1 a g e
;igure (*1- 1ro6ection of ;uture Share 1rice at &ifferent Crowth :ate
can pa% off its de,t which will gi+e an encouraging signal to the shareholders. The
ta,le ,elow lists the change is capital structure of the compan%.
The assumptions are made in preparing the pro forma income statement and
,alance sheet 8 pro6ecting future share price.
3 "nitiall% all assets, including fi<ed assets, accounts pa%a,le +ar% directl% with
sales.
3 =ong term de,t and common stock won7t +ar% with sales as management
decision is to keep a constant long term de,t and common stock.
3 As the compan% decided to maintain a constant retention rate, the compan%
will pa% di+idend e+er% %ear at the same rate.
Scenario *naly"i"
"n this case stud%, the growth rate of ?I has ,een selected as the constant growth
rate and the pro forma statement has ,een generated ,ased on this growth rate. ;or
scenario anal%sis, ,oth optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are ,eing considered.
2e ha+e taken the ?I growth rate in normal situation. "f we want to ,e optimistic
enough to predict that the econom% will ha+e a high growth and the compan% will
also a,le to grow at I to AI. On the other hand, the situation can also ,e worse
enough to ha+e a growth lower than the normal and the compan% ma% face a growth
of !I or e+en *'I. After anal%zing the scenario of different situation we can sa% that
the pro6ected growth rate is appropriate for the compan% which will help the compan%
to operate in the market e+en if the situation is worse. "t gi+es a positi+e indication
towards the compan% and increases the shareholders confidence to in+est in the
compan%7s share.
The optimistic 8 pessimistic scenario is illustrated on the ne<t page.
Chapter +
-inding" & Conclu"ion
BATA Shoe $ompan% DBangladeshE =td. is in this ,usiness since 19!. $urrent
market priceMshare of BATA is B&T (!A.>F on the other hand compan%7s ,ook +alue
is onl% B&T A1.91, which means market price is more than .?( times higher than
the ,ook +alueF and it tells as there is some positi+e information in compan%7s
(1 9 1 a g e
financial performance which leads the 4*B @alue .?(. Based on market price if we
re*construct the ,alance sheet, we are ha+e to introduce TCoodwill7 as intangi,le
asset, for BATA the +alue of goodwill comes B&T ?'.9' Billion, this goodwill
,asicall% shows the confidence of the shareholders 8 in+estors on BATA ,acked ,%
some positi+e news.
Time series 8 $ross functional anal%sis also pro+ide some good information. O+er
the %ears &SO is decreasing. BATA is doing e<cellent which reflects ,etter credit
polic% of the compan%. :egarding the operating %ear !''(*!''9 &e,t ratio is
decreasing for BATA, e<cept the %ear !''#. 4ore or less it is remaining same .On
the other hand the ri+al is pla%ing opposite role. But declining de,t ratio is good news
for compan% ,ecause lower the de,t ratio, the greater the cushion against creditor7s
losses in the e+ent of li)uidation. T"5 ratio is much ,etter than the industr% ri+al
A15G. Because Ape< has huge loan and the% ha+e to pa% huge interest on that
loan. On the other hand BATA has a minimal loan o,ligation which results in a lower
interest rate and ,etter T"5 ratio. This significantl% increases the market reputation of
BATA.
1rofit 4argin of BATA has a highl% increasing trend as well as significantl% ,etter
than competitor. "t is happening due to ,oth increase in sales re+enue as well as well
maintained lower selling 8 distri,ution e<pense. As BATA has ,etter profit margin,
asset management ratio 8 de,t ratio, o,+iousl% :eturn on Asset D:OAE 8 :eturn on
5)uit% D:O5E would ,e ,etter in ,oth time series 8 cross section anal%sis.
Based on strategic anal%sis of footwear industr%, there is a scope of product
differentiation and also cost leadership. So with the o,6ecti+e of ma<imizing profit
BATA has gone for cost control approach. "n the ;inancial anal%sis we found that
BATA is ha+ing higher amount of sales with the tight administrati+e e<pense, ha+ing
cost control on distri,ution 8 transportation e<pense the compan% is achie+ing higher
net income. 2ith the strateg% of increasing efficienc% le+el of distri,ution channel the
compan% can achie+e the higher profit margin.
"n pro6ecting ?I growth rate, it has ,een found that the compan% has huge e<cess
fund, which can ,e financed distri,uted to pa%off long term de,t and reduce the
o,ligations of interest e<penses. The pro6ection sa%s that assuming ?I growth rate,
(! 9 1 a g e
after ( %ears in !'1? 51S of the compan% would ,e >9.9# as well as considering
constant 1M5 ratio as constant factor, in %ear !'1? share price would ,e B&T ?!.#.
"nitiall% we assumed man% growth +aria,les, ,ut the growth rate assumption is more
appropriateF considering current world wide economic condition, Bangladesh7s
long term a+erage C&1 growth rate of ?I as an assumption would ,e most
appropriate, as it would ,e +er% optimistic to assume higher growth rate. As
well as, considering the increasing concern of sa+ing world en+ironment, it
would ,e +er% optimistic to assume higher growth rate for future for a footwear
compan%.
/eferences
Annual :eports D!''(*!''9E of Bata Shoe $ompan% DBangladeshE =td.
Annual :eports D!''(*!''9E of Ape< adelchi ;ootwear =imited.
;undamentals of ;inancial 4anagement ,% James. C. Van Horne,
John M. Wachowc!, Jr
(> 9 1 a g e
Business Anal%sis 8 @aluation Nsing ;inancial Statements ,% "alep#, Healy,
Bernard
(? 9 1 a g e