PAST IS NO PREDICTOR OF FUTURE

Like a triangle whose three angles are inextricabl interlinke!" so are the three #erio!s
o$ ti%e&#resent" #ast an! $'t're&closel inter(connecte!) E*ents an! e*ent'alities"
ca'ses an! conse+'ences take #lace in the context or a%bit o$ ti%e an! s#ace" #eo#le
an! #laces) It %a be a nor%al or nat'ral acti*it to si$t cha$$ $ro% grain" b't in case
o$ ti%e" #ast an! $'t're" the exercise %a not #ro*e $r'it$'l beca'se #ast is no
#re!ictor o$ $'t're as we #res'%e or 'n!erstan! it to be)
Since no o#inion or concl'sion is $inal in nat're an! n'ance" it is e+'all tr'e that #ast
is not the %irror that alwas re$lects the $'t're co'rse o$ e*ents" as so%e historians"
sociologists or e*en scientists wo'l! like 's to belie*e) Each age 'n$ol!s certain
'n$oreseen er'#tions o$ national" regional or e*en global !i%ensions" that %akes all
o'r calc'lations base! on #ast go aw$'ll awr)
,aking #re!ictions abo't $'t're is a risk b'siness) E*en an ast'te astrologer co'ches
his -so(calle!. #re!ictions in a bag($'ll o$ -i$s an! b'ts.) I$ h'%an intelligence an!
int'ition $ail to #re!ict in exact ter%s the $'t're co'rse o$ ha##enings in an in!i*i!'al.s
li$e" how can an entit like -#ast. %ake acc'rate or in$allible $orebo!ings abo't $'t're
that is alwas shro'!e! in 'ncertainties) Since the role o$ the #ast as a #re!ictor o$
$'t're cannot be r'le! o't o'trightl" it is alwas #r'!ent to take #re!ictions with a
#inch o$ salt) /hen nat'ral cala%ities strike so%e #art o$ a co'ntr or region" there
%a ha*e been no in!ications or warnings in the #ast) The occ'rrence o$ earth+'akes"
their intensit" ti%ing an! location can sel!o% be #re!icte! e*en tho'gh we %a ha*e
a #lethora o$ recor!s" analses an! other scienti$ic !etails abo't the%)
The wa societies are 'n!ergoing trans$or%ations at neck(break s#ee! is" howe*er" a
reb'ttal o$ the assertion that #ast alwas $oretells s'ch *arie! choices an! *isible
changes in social %ores an! %o!es o$ li$e an! li*ing) In the best or worst o$ ti%es"
#ast stan!s $or %e%ories" so'r an! sweet" an! $'t're $or ho#es an! a%big'ities" with
the #resent acting as catalst or bri!ge)
The worl! o*er the %a0orit hol!s the o#inion that #ast is no soothsaer) 1a! it been
so it wo'l! ha*e #re!icte! the !isintegration o$ the So*iet Union an! the s'bse+'ent
!e*elo#%ents a$$ecting both the !e*elo#e! as well as the !e*elo#ing nations) No
!o'bt" so%e broa! hints o$ changes to co%e are alwas #resent in the laers o$ the
#ast" b't no !e$inite sha#e o$ things to e%erge in $'t're is e*er #ossible to $orecast)
The +'estion that stares in the $ace o$ each generation is2 Does the #ast #re!ict the
$'t're3 The answer %a be both 4es an! No) Since all the three #erio!s o$ ti%e chase
one another" there is e*er reason to agree 5with +'ite a $ew reser*ations" o$ co'rse6
with the ass'%#tion that e*ents o$ the #ast ha*e a bearing on !e*elo#%ents in $'t're)
Des#ite o'r clai% an! con*iction that science an! technolog ha*e nearl con+'ere!
an! controlle! the $orces o$ nat're" there still re%ains the ele%ent o$ s'r#rise an!
shock that ti%e !eli*ers when we least ex#ect it) The 'n$ol!ing o$ so%e 'n$oreseen
e*ents in $'t're '#hol!s the arg'%ent that -#ast is no #re!ictor o$ $'t're.)
There is alwas so%e loose link between #ast an! $'t're b't to in*est the #ast with
the #owers o$ #re!iction is like %isrea!ing the signi$icance o$ #ast *i7(a(*i7 its
relationshi# with $'t're)
,an a ti%e" i$ not alwas" #ast #ro*es to be the $orer'nner or #rec'rsor
o$ $'t're) That the Leag'e o$ Nations 5a$ter the /orl! /ar I6 was !oo%e! to !ie was
a#tl&rather acc'ratel&#re!icte! b the #ast thro'gh its knowle!geable #ersons an!
cre!ible critics) The #re!iction ca%e tr'e an! th's #ast ac+'ire! the
!istinction o$ being a #re!ictor o$ $'t're" tho'gh $or a brie$ #erio! onl) It goes
to the cre!it o$ #ast that it contains eno'gh e*i!ence to hel# write an! inter#ret
histor in an 'nbiase! %anner) In or!er to 0'!ge e*ents in the right #ers#ecti*e" #ast
is a reliable g'i!e to take correcti*e" ste#s" i$ nee! be" to #re#are the roa!%a# $or
$'t're #lanning an! #rogra%%ing) Thro'gh the warnings e%anating $ro% #ast" the
conto'rs o$ $'t're can be set right) Altho'gh we resist the atte%#t 5with so'n! reason6
to label #ast as the #re!ictor o$ $'t're" et we can learn a $ew 'se$'l lessons $ro% the
#ast an! a!0'st o'r %ental antennas $or the $'t're)
There goes a saing that -histor re#eats itsel$." so%eti%es as a $arce an! so%eti%es
as a !ark trage!) /hen reason iel!s to rhetoric an! !iscretion !iscar!s !isco'rse or
!isc'ssion" $ollies o*erwhel% an! gi*e 'n!eser*e! cre!ence to the belie$ that #ast
re#eats or #re!icts) In $act" the genesis o$ $'t're ha##enings" like the o'tbreak o$ an
ar%e! con$lict" so%e e#i!e%ic" !ro'ght or $loo!s" an! si%ilar sit'ation" lies
so%ewhere between #ast an! #resent) I$ $'t're too is a$$ecte! b the lengthening
sha!ows o$ #ast acts o$ co%%ission an! o%ission" no one can hel# co%ing to the
concl'sion that #ast !oes sha#e an! shar#en the e*ents in $'t're)
It har!l %atters" tho'gh" whether we call -#ast. the #re!ictor o$ -$'t're. or not" the
$'t're sha#e o$ things is generall cast in the wo%b o$ #ast)