Statistics

Population variance =

()

Population standard deviation =
()

Sample variance =

( )

Sample standard deviation
( )

Probability distribution
1) Binomial distribution (Cumulative Binomial Probabilities Table)
- Applicable to discrete probability problems that have attributes
Binomial formula for a single term ()

()

(d=defective, p= fail,
q = pass)
2) Poisson (Cumulative Poisson Probabilities Table)
- A discrete probability distribution, applicable when n , p
Poisson distribution ()
()

3) Normal (Area in Tail of the normal distribution Table)
Normal distribution ()

Standardized Normal value =

Acceptance Sampling
Is the process of evaluating a portion of a product in a lot (population) for the
purpose of accepting and rejecting the entire lot as conforming or
nonconforming to specification
Application:
- When destructive inspection is carried out (eg. Tensile test)
- When 100% inspection is not possible (eg. Due to cost or time limitation
- When there are many similar units to be inspected
- When the producers quality is not available
- When automated inspection is not used
Advantages:
- More economical as fewer inspection and inspectors are involved
- Less handling damage during inspection
- Application to destructive testing
- Rejection of entire lots rather than the return of defectives, thereby provides
stringer motivation for improvement
Disadvantages:
- Risk of accepting bad lots and rejecting good lots
- More time and effort are needed for planning and documentation
- Less information about the product
- No assurance that the entire lot conforms to specifications
Types of sampling plan
1) Single sampling 2) Double sampling 3) Multiple sampling
Single Sampling Plan
The decision to accept or reject a lot is based on the results of inspecting one
sample taken from the lot
Double Sampling Plan
- A initial sampling is drawn, and a decision to accept, reject or take another
sample is based on the outcome of inspecting the first sample
- A second sample is taken if the results of the first are neither good nor very bad
N lot size, n sample size, c acceptance, r rejection
How formation of lots influence effectiveness of sampling plan?
- Lots should be homogeneous, which means the lot is produced by the same
machine, same operator, same input material and so on
- Lots should be as large as possible, a lower inspection cost results with larger
lot sizes
Operating Characteristic (OC) Curve for steeper curve, gradient , n , c
(1) Poisson distribution (Cumulative Poisson Probabilities Table)
Given value of N, n and c
a) Assume Po
b) Calculate nPo
c) Obtain probability of having more than c defectives (m = nPo) P(r>= c+1)
d) Compute the probability of acceptance Pa= 1-P
e) Repeat steps a-d until smooth curve is obtained
(2) Table on Construction of OC curves for single sampling plans technique
(Construction of OC Curves for single sampling plan Table)
Given value of N, n and c
a) Choose a value of Pa from the table
b) With value of Pa and c, find value of npo from table
c) Calculate po using po = (npo)/n
d) Repeat steps a to c with Pa = 1.0, 0.95, 0.75, 0.5, 0.25, 0.1 to obtain a smooth
curve
e) Plot Probability of Acceptance (Pa) against % Nonconforming (100po)
OC Curve Properties
1) Sample size as a fixed percentage of lot size (n = fixed % of N, c = fixed), higher
N results in lower Pa
2) Fixed sample size (N = varies, n = fixed, c = fixed), curves are very similar
3) Fixed lot size (N = fixed, n = varies, c = fixed), higher n results in lower Pa, slope
of curve becomes steeper and approaches a straight vertical line
4) Different acceptance number (N = fixed, n = fixed, c = varies), lower c results
in lower Pa, the curve becomes steeper
Note: sampling plan with c greater than zero can produce steeper curve, with
larger sample size which is more costly
Consumer-Producer Relationship
Producers risk (probability of rejecting a good lot)
Pa Probability of acceptance
AQL Acceptable Quality Level
Consumers risk (probability of acceptance of bad lot)
LQL Limiting Quality Level
LTPD Lot Tolerance Percent Defective
Sampling plan design for stipulated producers risk (Construction of OC Curves
for single sampling plan Table)
Pa = 1-
p1- = AQL/100
From table, given c and Pa, find np1-
Find n = np1-/p1-
From consumers viewpoint, larger c and n gives better protection, however the
sample size is greater which increases the inspection cost
Sampling plan design for stipulated consumers risk (Construction of OC Curves
for single sampling plan Table)
Pa =
p = LQL/100
From table, given c and Pa, find np
Find n = np/p
From producers viewpoint, larger c and n gives better protection, however the
sample size is greater which increases the inspection cost
Sampling plan design for stipulated producers and consumers risk (Derivation
of Single Sampling Plan Table)
a) Determine ratio of p/p(1-)=(LQL/100)/(AQL/100)
b) From table, determine p/p(1-) is between which 2 c values
c) Plans that exactly meet consumers stipulation of and LQL
d) Plans that exactly meet producers stipulation of and AQL
4 Plans on different conditions
Case 1: Based on the lowest sample size, select the sampling plan
Case 2: Based on the greatest sample size, select the sampling plan
Case 3: Plans exactly meet consumers stipulation and comes as close as possible
to producers stipulation ( , AQL)
Using c and n values from (c), and np(1-) from (d), calculate p(1-)=np(1-)/n
Compare both p(1-) values and choose the one closer to AQL/100.
Case 4: Plans exactly meets producers stipulation and comes as close as
possible to consumers stipulation (, LQL)
Using c and n values from (d), and np from (c), calculate p=np/n
Compare both p values and choose the one closer to LQL/100.
Rectification
Po Probability of defective,
No. of lots accepted = xPa
No. of lots rejected = x(1-Pa)
Total number = xPaN + x(1-Pa)(1-Po)
No of Defective = xPaNPo
Actual % Defective = No. of Defective/Total number x 100
Lot-by-lot AS for attributes
Three types of inspection: Normal (N), Tightened (T) and Reduced (R)
a) Determine the sample-size code with the lot size and the inspection level from
table (Sample-size Code Letters)
b) Determine the sampling plan with the appropriate table and AQL
c) Start with normal inspection and change to tightened or reduced based on
switching rules
Switching procedure
a) Normal to tightened,
Tightened inspection is instituted where 2 out of 5 consecutive lots or batches
have been rejected on original inspection
b) Tightened to normal,
When tightened inspection is in effect, normal inspection shall be reinstated
when 5 consecutive batches have been accepted on original inspection
In the event that 10 consecutive lots or batches remain on tightened inspection,
inspection under the provisions of this standard should be discontinued pending
action to improve the quality of submitted material
c) Normal to reduced (all conditions satisfied),
- 10 consecutive batches have been accepted on normal and original inspection
- Total no. of defectives in the 10 samples is equal to or less than the limit no
give in the table
- Production is at a steady rate
- Reduced inspection is considered desirable by the consumer.
d) Reduced to normal,
- A lot or batch is rejected
- Sampling terminates without either acceptance or rejection criteria met, the
batch is considered accepted but normal inspection is reinstated
- Production becomes irregular or delayed
- Other conditions warrant normal inspection to be reinstituted
Control Chart
Source of Variation
1) Equipment (tool wear, machine variation, workholding device positioning,
hydraulic & electrical fluctuations)->same machine helps to reduce variation
2) Material (raw material, supplier)->same supplier helps to reduce variation
3) Environment (temperature, light, radiation, particle size, pressure, humidity)-
>clean room helps to reduce variation
4) Operator (performs the operation, physical & emotional well-being, lack
training)-> automation helps to reduce variation
5) Inspection (faulty inspection equipment, incorrect use of quality standard,
incorrect reporting)-> minor variation as compared to the 4 other sources of
variations)
Types of causes of variation
1) Chance or common causes (in control stable and predictable)
- Natural & expected manner inevitable
- Stable over time & is predictable
- Inherent in the design
- Responsibility of people who designed the process management
2) Assignable or special causes (out-of-control beyond the expected natural
variation)
- Not stable over time & is not predictable
- From events outside of the process
- Best identified by the person responsible for running the process




Objectives of Control Chart
- To achieve quality improvement
- To determine the process capability -> True process capability can be achieved
only after substantial quality improvement
- Find and eliminate the assignable causes if unnatural pattern occurs
- To decide whether item(s) should be released to the next phase of the
sequence
- Common language for communication
Control Chart Techniques
1) Select the quality characteristic ( and R charts)
2) Choose the subgroup m (Given m, n)
3) Collect data (Given in exams)
4) Determine the trial centre line and control limits
a) Centre lines for and R charts

Average of the subgroup averages

Average of the ranges

b) Trial control limits for and R charts

and

can be found (American type Shewhart control charts (3 limits))

5) Find revised centre line and control limits (use new m)
Identify and eliminate subgroups outside control limit, go through (a) and (b)
again
Population Standard deviation

State of control
In-control process (producer and consumer would expect certain advantages)
- More uniform production
- reduced cost of inspection
- Operator performing satisfactory
- X and R charts used as statistical evidence of process control
Out-of-control process
- Effect of special causes of variation over time
- Impossible to predict future variation
- The causes must be found and corrected before a natural, stable process can
continue
Unnatural runs of variation:
-Divide the control chart into 6 equal zones (Zone C 1, Zone B 2, Zone A
3)
- 7 points in a row in zone C or beyond above/below centre line
- 6 points in a row steadily decreasing/increasing
- 2 out of 3 points in a row in same zone A
- 4 out of 5 points in a row in same zone B or beyond
- 9 out of 10 points in a row in both zone C
Out-of-control pattern
1. change/ jump in level
chart due to change in process setting, new operator, diff raw material, minor
failure of machine part.
R chart due to inexperienced operator, greater variation in incoming material
2. Trend/ steady change in level
chart due to deterioration of equipment, gradual change in temp, viscosity
breakdown in chemical process, build-up of chips in work-holing device
R chart due to improvement/ decrease in worker skill, gradual improvement of
material
3. Recurring cycles
chart due to seasonal effects of incoming material, recurring effects of temp,
periodic rotation of operators.
R chart due to operator fatigue, lubrication cycle.
4. 2 populations
chart due to large diff in material quality, 2/more machines used, large
differences in test method
R chart due to different workers, materials from different suppliers
5. Mistakes
Errors in calculation, measuring equipment out of calibration, errors in using test
equipment, taking samples from different populations
Process capability
Specifications

Scrapped or Reworked (Areas in Tail of the Normal Distribution Table to find z)

Process capability index Cp (process capability potential)

cp > 1, potential for meeting specifications
cp = 1, no allowance for error
cp < 1, no potential for meeting specifications
Actual capability index Cpk (actual process performance)

( ) ( )

cpk cp
Cpk < 1, product does not conform to specifications
Cpk 1, product does conform to specifications
ISO 9000 series are a set of international quality management standards and
guidelines
Benefits: - products and services consistently meeting customer requirements
- Greater customer satisfaction, more efficient processes, less scrap
and rework
- Better internal communications, Quality improvements are locked
into place
- Quality system provides framework for TQM and continuous
improvement
Design of Experiment (DOE)
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) for single factor experiments
1) Decide the factor to be investigated and the 2 factors
- number of levels a, replicates n
2) Carry out the experiments, obtain N (=an) observations

3) Calculate sum of squares (SS)

4) Determine degrees of freedom (DOF)
Total no of observation: N = an

( )
( )
5) Calculate mean square (MS)

( )

6) Calculate the test ratio Fo

( )(

)
7) Make conclusion
If

, conclude that the factor has no effect on the response

If

, conclude that the factor has significant effect on the response

Test for Individual Level Means
Least Significant Difference (LSD) is a useful tool to test the differences between
the individual level means. The basic requirement for a LSD test is that the F0 for
the overall ANOVA must be significant. If the F0 was not significant, no
comparisons between levels means are allowed. Simply declare that there are
no differences among the level means and stop. If F0 is significant, proceed to
make all pairwise comparison between individual means using a t test.
1) Calculate

and the

value obtained during ANOVA

2) Determine the DOF, ( )
3) Specify a type I error
4) Find control limits from t table based on and DOF
5) Make conclusion by comparing the calculated t value against control limits
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) for several factor experiments
1) Decide the factor to be investigated and the 3 factors
- number of levels a, b, replicates n
2) Carry out the experiments, obtain N (=abn) observations

3) Calculate sum of squares (SS)

4) Determine degrees of freedom (DOF)

( )( )

( )
5) Calculate mean square (MS)

( )( )

( )

6) Calculate the test ratio Fo

7) Make conclusion
If

, conclude that the factor has no effect on the response

If

, conclude that the factor has significant effect on the response

2
k
Experiments
Advantages
- can reduce the total no. of runs in an experiments for given no. of factors, more
factors can be considered at the same time
- useful to the screening experiments in the early stage when we are not certain
which factor may have significant effect on the response
- the formulae for calculating the sums of squares are much simpler than other
types
- can easily use a simple statistics effect to estimate the effect (or influence) of a
factor on the response
2
2
Design (N = 2
2
n = 4n)
Main effect

,() -

Main effect

,() -

Interaction

,() -

Effects are depend on
absolute values but
not signs
The Sum of Squares for a Contrast

( )

1) Establish the plus and minus signs table
2) Decide the contrast (

)
3) Calculate the sum of squares of the main effects and interactions from

4) Calculate the total sum of squares by the conventional formula

5) Calculate the sum of squares of error by subtraction

6) Complete the ANOVA
2
k
Design for k>= 3 Factors (General Formulae to Calculate effect and sum of
squares)

()

Single Replicate of 2
k
Design (Single replicate: n=1) ANOVA cannot be carried
out

( ) ( )

Advantages of Factorial Designs 2
k
- More efficient than one-factor-at-a-time experiments, on condition of some
degree of accuracy (efficiency= no of observation, N, accuracy = no of pairs of
observation, m)
- necessary to avoid misleading conclusions when interactions may be present
- Allows the effect of a factor to be estimated at several levels of other factors,
yielding conclusions that are valid over a range of experimental conditions
Fractional Experiments
Fractional factorial design allows us to conduct only a fraction (1/2, 1/4, 1/8,
and so on) of the complete set of 2
k
runs in order to save the no. of runs
Good fractional design: - important information for main effects is reserved;
- Insignificant information for high order interactions is
lost
Poor fractional design: - Important information for man effects is lost
- Insignificant information for high order interactions is
reserved
Design of a 2
k-1
One Half Fractional Experiment
A 2
k
design is called a 2
k-1
fractional factorial design. It reduces the no. of runs by
half, from 2
k
to 2
k-1

1) Decide the (k-1) basic factors
2) Work out the basic design in terms of the basic factors
3) Decide the alias of the last factor from the generator, which is the highest
order interaction
4) Replace the last factor for the alias in the basic design, the table for the2
k-1

design is completed
5) Entire aliases structure of the 2
k-1
design can be determined from the defining
relations
6) Carry out the actual experiments, ie take the observation
7) Evaluate the joints effect from the plus and minus signs table of the 2
k-1

design
8) Joints effects can be used as the estimates of the main effects
A 1/4 Fraction design is denoted as a 2
k-2
1) Decide the factors to be investigated and the ranges of values
2) Decide a fractional factorial design

3) Decide the generators (2 basic generators , 1 induced generator, total
generators = 3)
No. of aliases for an effect = number of generators
4) Determine the alias structure
5) Decide the basic factors and basic design
6) Decide the signs for the 2 end columns
7) Carry out the experiment and take the observations (response Cp)
8) Calculate the joint effects
9) Estimate the main effects
10) Decide the effective factors and project the 2
k-2
design
11) Calculate the totals of the runs
12) Calculate the contrasts, sums of squares, analysis of variance
13) Decide control limit

14) Decide the significance of the main effects and interaction
15) Conclusion
Reliability
It is defined as the probability that a system will perform its intended function
for a specific period of time under a given set of condition.
R=
( )( )

3 major methods to improve system reliability
1) Improve the reliabilities of the components
2) Adopt redundancy (parallel configuration)
3) Improve maintenance
System Life Cycle divided into 4 stages:
1) Definition & conceptual design 2) Detailed design and
development
3) Manufacture and construction 4) Operation

The Bathtub curve How can the effects of failures be limited?

Early Random Aging
Time Wearing Useful life Wearout
High; decreasing Low; constant High; increasing
Cause inherent defects,
substandard
material, violating
tolerances (QC),
missing parts,
damage in shipping
Random loads (such
as earthquake, power
surge, vibration, mech
impact, temp
fluctuation
Cumulative
effects, such as
corrosion and
fatigue
Action QC defects &
correction
Factor of safety;
capacity
Maintenance,
replace
Time Dependent Failure Rates
Exponential distribution Weibull distribution (2 parameters: m
& )
1) Simple
2) constant
3) Random failure

()
()

PDF, ()

Unreliability, ()

Reliability, ()

()

1) More complicated
2) is not constant
3) 3 types of failures

PDF, ()

Unreliability, ()
(

Reliability, ()
(

)
m = 1,

, constant, random failure

m < 1, decreasing, early failure
m > 1, increasing, aging failure
Demand Failure
Continuous failure mode,

[total time]
Demand failure mode,

[n= no of starting times]

Overall reliability,

System reliability
Series Parallel
Rs=R1R2R3... Rs= R1+R2- (R1R2)
m/N Configuration
N = total no. of components
m = min no. of components that must function for the system to operate
successfully
k = the no. of actually functional components
System function, when System fails, when
Binomial distribution
For N identical components (each has a reliability of R), the probability Q for a
case in which k components are functional and the rest (N-k) components are
failed is equal to

( )

and

is the no. of cases (combinations) of k out of N units

And the probability for all such cases is *+

( )

()
A m/N system is functional when
Two Formulae to calculate the reliability of a m/N system
1) m > N/2

* + (

( )

2) m < N/2

* +
(

( )

Redundancy in Complex Configurations
1) Series-parallel configuration (can be decomposed into series & parallel sub-
systems)
2) Linked configuration (cannot be simply decomposed into series or parallel
sub-systems)

is the system reliability, when the key component fails

is the system reliability when the key component functions

a) Decide the key component K that usually connects with many other
components
b) To calculate

, break all links to K

c) To calculate

, joint all links to k, short circuit bypassing some components

d)

Redundancy Allocation
- make less reliable component redundant
- Low level redundancy is more reliable
Markov Analysis (for dependent systems)
1) Determine states, Set up the transition diagram

2) Set transition equations, Solve equations, Evaluate system reliability

Reliability Testing
Non parametric Methods Parametric Methods
Ungrouped data used when
- Individual failure times are handled
- The number of data is small
Grouped data when
- Failure times processed in group
- The number of data is large
Exponential Methods
Weibull distribution
Parametric Methods
Fit the data into a theoretical distribution (exponential, Weibull, normal,
lognormal)
Advantages: - reveal the failure mechanisms
- more readily for mathematical analysis. In addition, only one or a
few
parameters have to be saved
What to do?
1) Check if a particular distribution can represent the data
2) Estimate the parameters for a selected distribution
Censor (incomplete test)
Test terminates before all components failed due to
1) Different types of failure or 2) Due to design or manufacture deadlines
Non-replacement

Replacement
Type I: test terminated at
specific time t
*


T =

i + (N-n) t
*
MTTF =

T= Nt*
Type II: test terminated
immediately after n
number of failures.
T =

i + (N-n) tn
MTTF =

T=Ntn
Four different cases of censors
1) Type I, without replacement 3) Type I, with replacement
2) Type II, without replacement 4) Type II, with replacement

n = no. of observed failures
N = total no. of components at the beginning

= time to failure of the ith failed components

T = total observed operational time of all components
Accelerated test
1) Compress-time test (for discrete demand modes) using system more
frequently
2) Advance stress test( for continuous failure modes) increased loads/ harsher
environmental conditions
Maintained system
Preventive maintenance: components are replaced/ adjusted before failures.
Increase system reliability
Repair Error
When ( )applies

() ,()( )-

( )
When applies

() ()

( )

Corrective maintenance: components are replaced/ adjusted after failures.
Increase system availability
Availability
MTTR =

= 1-

where v = repair rate, A= availability

A=
( )( )

( )
(

System Safety Analysis
1) Failure Mode & Effects Analysis (FMEA)
This method enumerates the potential failure modes of components and traces
through the characteristics & consequences of each failure mode on the system
as a whole. It is usually applied with the help of a table on which are listed he
failure modes of a components, the possible causes, the effects.
1. Severity (S): The assessment of the seriousness of the effect of the potential
failure mode to the next component, sub-system, system, or customer if it
occurs.
2. Occurrence (O): It is the chance that one of the specific causes will occur.
3. Detection (D): The measure of the ability to detect a potential cause
Risk Priority Number (RPN)
RPN = S X O X D
2) Event Trees Analysis
This method begins with the a specific initial component, & then follows the
possible progressions of the accidents according to success or failure of other
components

Probability of blackout = PiPv+Pi(1-Pv)Pg
3. Fault Trees Analysis
It is centered about determining the causes of an undesired event (top event) &
estimating its failure probability.