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Risk Assessment and Forecast
Mumbai







Risk Overview

Mumbai, the capital city of Maharashtra and the financial capital of India (as termed by the media in
India), came into international spotlight recently due to the terror attacks in November 2008. Though
Mumbai has been known for long for challenges it faces in controlling terrorism and the underworld
mafia, the 2008 attacks changed the face of previous attacks. This richest city in India and one of the top
global centers of financial flow underwent noteworthy changes in its infrastructure to combat terrorism
after the attacks. While the attacks made the Indian Government and the Maharashtra state government to
implement firmer anti-terror tactics, Mumbai continues to face a high risk of terrorist attacks. The risk
overview is further increased by growing crime incidents in the city along with natural challenges such as
floods, high tides, etc. Mumbai sits on the west coast of India, bounded by the Arabian Sea. This
geographical location makes it vulnerable to sea-borne natural challenges.
Picture 1: Location of Mumbai in India (Source: Maps of India)
The Mumbai metropolitan city is made up of Mumbai City District and Mumbai Suburban District. The
city area is also known as the island city and Mumbai remains in India since long as one of the primary
CONTENTS PAGE
Risk Overview 1
Major Issues 2
MNCs and Expatriates 3
Mitigation Measures 4
Forecasting 5
Precautions 6
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centers of the entertainment industry in India (popularly known as Bollywood or the Indian Hindi film
industry). As the most populous city in India, it also faces several challenges of urban lifestyle.
Major Issues
Terrorism continues to remain the topmost risk for the city of Mumbai, owing to its economic and
financial significance in the Indian landscape. According to Indian intelligence sources, though there may
be an overlap between terrorist and mafia activities, threat from Islamic fundamentalists (believed to be
based in Pakistan) is considered to be highest. A brief outline of the major terrorist incidents in the city is
given below:
Year Suspect Incident
July 2011 Indian Mujahideen,
Mafia( Underworld)
Three bomb explosions at different locations, causing 26
deaths and 131 persons injured.
November 2008 Lashkar-e-Toiba Gun firing, bombings and hostage-taking caused 164 deaths
(including 10 attackers). Injured 300 persons.
July 2006 Lashkar-e-Toiba,
Students Islamic
Movement of India.
Seven bomb blasts in local trains at seven locations cause
209 deaths and injure more than 700 people.
August 2003 Lashkar-e-Toiba Twin car bombings cause 52 deaths and injured 160 people.

Climatic conditions and heavy rains pose a major risk to business operations in Mumbai, as the city gets
flooded and becomes inaccessible for travel. The city is considered vulnerable to rising sea levels and
storms due to climatic changes which are considered a business risk by the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD).
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The Mumbai floods of July 2005 caused more than 1000 deaths
and caused an approximate business loss of US$100 million. Functioning of banks, ATMs and stock
exchanges were mostly suspended owing to flooding in the city. Airports were shut down temporarily and
more than 700 flights were affected. The floods also damaged nearly 4000 taxis (taxis are used widely for
local transport by corporate employees), 50 local trains ( known as the lifeline of sub-urban Mumbai) and
35000 autorickshaws ( three-wheeler public vehicles). Heavy downpours continue to hamper the normal
functioning of the city of Mumbai till date.
Picture 2: A view of high tides in Mumbai
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1
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/Climate+change+puts+Mumbai+at+risk+says+OECD/1/73866.html. The India Today cites in December 2009
about the OECD researching on the relationship between climate change and Mumbais socio-economic challenges of economic growth and
high population. Pricewaterhouse Coopers puts Mumbai at top with highest GDP in South Asia in 2008.
2
Source: Deccan Herald, http://www.deccanherald.com/images/editor_images/mumbai-evening-july24.jpg
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Though Mumbai is considered a safer city for women as compared to Delhi, media sources have
criticized the city for its increasing crime rate. According to the latest release of the National Crime
Records Bureau, 2010, Mumbai has the highest incidence of cyber crime (41 out of 150 cases) of IT cases
reported under IPC sections which makes it account for 27.3 percent in India. The state of Maharashtra
also reported high number of crime cases with 208168 as compared to Delhi (51292) and Karnataka
(142322).
MNCs and Expatriates
Mumbai remains the first choice for foreign nationals, expatriates and MNCs due to its metropolitan
outlook and the strong presence of the financial sector of the country. Most major financial and banking
companies and institutions in the country have their head offices in the city. The city is also a major
tourist destination in the country.
The Mumbai terror attacks in 2008 changed the general perception of terrorist incidents in the country.
The incident combined a series of coordinated attacks by suspected Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists on both
public places and high-profile targets like the Taj Hotel. The places that were attacked are Chhatrapati
Shivaji Terminus (a UNESCO World Heritage Site railway terminal), Leopold Caf ( a popular bar and
caf), the Taj Hotel, the Oberoi Trident Hotel, Nariman House( a Jewish center), besides two bomb
explosions in taxis. Among the nearly 166 victims, 28 foreign nationals were killed in the attacks. Though
the exact number of people killed and injured remains disputed in government and media records, the
table below list the number of casualties and injured according to their nationality.

Source: Wikipedia (This table is compiled from various sources)

Americans
British
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The Mumbai terror attacks also made large MNCs rethink their corporate security plans. Since the
terrorists entered the Indian territory via the Arabian Sea, according to discreet sources, most companies
have started to review their vulnerability if their offices are located in sea-facing business complexes.
MNCs also remain a constant target of verbal attack from the activists of the Hindu nationalist local party,
Shiv Sena, and its rival split formation Maharashtra Navnirman Sena( MNS). Clashes frequently occur
between the two rival parties, leading to police action on the city streets. The activists of both the political
parties are critical of the influence of Western culture on the local youths and involve in vandalism in
public places on Valentines Day. In November 2009, Shiv Sena activists attacked the offices of two
national TV channel networks for criticism of their supreme leader by the channels. Shiv Sena activists
also call for frequent bandhs (closures) in the city as a protest strategy on their political agenda.
Mitigation Measures
In the subsequent years to the Mumbai terror attacks, the federal government in India and the Maharashtra
state government initiated firmer anti-terror measures. The Indian Government emphasized on the
development of the anti-terror infrastructure and claimed to have increased homeland security allocation
by 25 percent in the annual budget 2009-2010. The Ministry of Home Affairs (responsible for Indias
internal security primarily) drew up a budget of USD 4.3 billion for the year 2009-10.
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A special police
commando force, known as Force One, operational of coastal police stations and up gradation /addition of
police resources were some of the important developments.
Apart from terrorism, the Mumbai Police is also becoming active in addressing crime incidents. In spite
of criticism of the media on police efficiency to combat crime, the recent data of NCRB challenge the
claims of media to an extent. According to this centralized data, the crime rate in Mumbai city was
comparatively lower than those in other cities in India.
Source: NCRB, 2010.

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http://www.security-risks.com/security-issues-south-asia/military-contracts/a-year-after-2611-capacity-building-
review-435.html
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According to government sources, vigilance regarding corruption and money laundering has also
increased in the recent years. A 2001 study conducted by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a reputed
security think tank in India, on organized crime in Mumbai highlights the complex functioning and
sources of income of the Mumbai underworld. However, over the decade, security sources argue that the
influence of the underworld has relatively declined in Mumbai.
Mumbai continues to face challenges from heavy rains and new disaster control measures have been
taken by the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai. The Monsoon Disaster Management Plan has
trained 60 new officers in flood rescue operations, consisting both firemen and officials.
Forecasting
The corporate sector in Mumbai believes that in spite of the genuine efforts taken by the government, the
vulnerability and probability of the city to terrorist attacks remain high. However, most of them agree that
the consequences of any future terrorist incident may not be as wide as in 2008 due to faster mitigation
resources in hand.
Consular services of the British High Commission (the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, FCO, of the
UK Government) and the US Embassy continue to offer travel warnings from time to time. British and
American citizens are frequently advised on terrorism and crime in the city ahead of any public festivals
(festive seasons are soft targets to terrorist attacks due to likelihood of high number of casualties). Most
foreign governments advise their citizens to contact consulates for immediate distress relief.
Picture3: Screenshot of FCO
Extensive physical damage due to climatic conditions is less likely to occur on MNC material and human
assets in the near future. This is because natural calamities and meteorological warnings are closely
followed by corporate security departments in most MNCs. Besides getting informed by government
sources, companies are also opening up their information sharing among themselves in the face of
common natural hazards. Most executives are given the option to work remotely wherever climatic
conditions deteriorate.

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In regard to local tensions, the government takes reporting of public disturbances promptly. Most security
heads of MNCs maintain good relationships with law enforcement and police authorities for speedy
grievance redressal. The Mumbai Police in the recent times have successfully controlled sabotage
activities of Shiv Sena activists and have controlled rioting tendencies. Though verbal attack on
reputation of MNCs may continue, physical harm to company employees and material may not be easily
possible.
Picture 4: A Shiv Sena activist controlled by police during a clash (Source: Outlook)
Precautions
Foreign nationals are advised to undertake pre-travel orientation either privately or through professional
help before undertaking any travel to Mumbai. For long duration of stay in the city, registration with the
consulate of the home country may be beneficial as consular services have high standards.
Consulate/Embassy Contact Number(Emergency) Address
US Consulate General (91-22) 2363-3611 American Consulate General C-
49, G-Block, Bandra Kurla
Complex, Bandra East, Mumbai
400051(New address from 21
Nov, 2011).
British Deputy High Commission
+91 (0)11 2419 2100, (91) (22)
66502222, +91 (0)22 6650 2222


Naman Chambers,
C/32 G Block Bandra Kurla
Complex,
Bandra (East) Mumbai 400 051
Australia Consulate General +91 22 6116 7100
Australia No: +61 2 6261 3305
or 1300 555 135
Australian Consulate General
36, Maker Chambers VI, 220,
Nariman Point
Mumbai-400021
Consulate General of Canada 91 (22) 6749-4444, 91 (11) 4178-
2000
6th Floor, Fort House, 221 Dr.
D.N. Road, Mumbai, 400 001,
India

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The quality of government-run emergency services is moderate in quality and can prove useful for first-
aid and emergency purposes. The city also has some of the best private hospitals in the country. The
police also attend crime against foreign nationals on priority and senior police officials are accessible.
Most senior officials have good working knowledge of English.
Incident/Service Contact Number Notes
Accident 102 Centralised Emergency Number
Breach Candy Hospital,
Bhulabhai Desai Road

+91 22 23672888, 23671888,
23667788
Private Hospital
Lilawati Hospital , Bandra
Reclamation
Bandra (West)
Mumbai 400050
+91 22 26751000, 26568000 Private Hospital
Fire Brigade 101 Centralised Emergency Number

Police Control Room 100
Senior Police Officials-Contact http://www.mumbaipolice.org/aboutus/telephone.htm
Essential Police Numbers http://www.mumbaipolice.org/imp_telnfax.htm












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