12/3/2014 Freak climate in North India may damage crops; fears of El Nino phenomenon rising - Economic Times

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-11/news/48118098_1_climate-change-climate-scientists-extreme-climate-events 1/3
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Freak climate in North India may
damage crops; fears of El Nino
phenomenon rising
Urmi Goswami & Madhvi Sal l y, ET Bureau Mar 11, 2014, 07.24AM IST
NEW DELHI: Snowfall in the middle of March; heavy
showers in the drying-up phase of the monsoon;
catastrophic floods before the rainy season; searing heat in
parts of south India extreme climate events seem to be
the norm in the past year, deepening concerns about
climate change.
The unusually cool and rainy weather currently prevailing in
the north is raising concerns about potato and sugar
production while mustard and wheat harvests, which were
earlier headed for a record, would be lower. To make
matters worse, the dreaded El Nino phenomenon, in which
changes in temperature in the Pacific Ocean disrupt global
weather patterns including Indian monsoon, seems more likely
than earlier forecasts.
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The bad news is that unusual weather conditions are casting a shadow on farm output and winter tourism in
snowy regions as the erratic weather changes are not predictable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change says the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events is rising.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, however, says it is difficult to link any single season or
event to climate change. "Hence, we are likely to see such events occurring more often and with greater
intensity due to climate change in the future," IPCC Chairman RK Pachauri told ET.
Ajit Tyagi, at the ministry of earth sciences, says such phenomena need to be studied. "While the current
weather events may be a part of the natural cycle, it is possible that these are being aggravated because of
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(The bad news i s that unusual )
12/3/2014 Freak climate in North India may damage crops; fears of El Nino phenomenon rising - Economic Times
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-11/news/48118098_1_climate-change-climate-scientists-extreme-climate-events 2/3
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climate change, which, as climate scientists have said with increasing certainty, is due to human activity."
So what can Indians expect next? To start with, "you will still have to take a hot water bath after Holi", said a
meteorologist, referring to the general expectation that summer sets in after the festival, and the current
forecasts of snow in the Himalayan states in the days ahead. "Rainfall will continue across north-west India
and gradually the temperature will increase by April-May," said DS Pai, director (long-range forecast), India
Meteorological Department.
"The winter coldwave this year is much colder than normal. Abnormal winter rainfall has covered Tamil Nadu,
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and other states," Pai said. Parts of Uttar Pradesh are still reporting
a minimum temperature of 8 degrees Celsius, the level usually seen in January or early February.
Ladakh andPoonch saw a deficit of over 60% in precipitation this season but snowfall was excessive in
Shimla, Kullu and Mandi, which is good news for apple orchards. However, other crops would suffer.
Harvests are being delayed by one or two weeks while parts of the crop have been damaged. Mustard crop
across nearly 25,000 hectare has been damaged by rain in Rajasthan and parts of Haryana. "We were
looking at a bumper crop of 8 million tonnes this year. Now, we should be closer to previous year's production
figure of 7.82 million tonnes," said Dhiraj Singh, director of the mustard and rapeseed research institute in
Rajasthan.
Farmers had tostall harvesting of chana across Maharashtra. "More than 1.08 lakh hectare under pulses has
been damaged in Maharashtra," said a pulses trader from Mumbai. Chana, which was selling 10% below the
minimum support price of Rs 3,100 per quintal a fortnight ago in mandis, has now crossed that level.
Last week, the Indian Sugar Mills Association scaled down its sugar production estimate to 23.8 million
tonnes, from 25 million tonnes, for this season. "Due consideration has been given to weather conditions
prevailing in the past several months, including heavy rainfall in certain parts of UP as well as availability of
water in Maharashtra and north Karnataka and scarcity of water in Tamil Nadu," it said.
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The wheat crop is expected to be 1-2 million tonnes less than previous estimates. Output is now expected to
be close to 93 million tonnes, despite higher area under cultivation. The crop has been sown over 31.5 million
hectare this year, compared with 29.82 million hectare last year.
Crops may suffer much more this summer if the El Nino phenomenon disrupts monsoon rains as it often, but
not always, does. The phenomenon is watched globally as it causes excess rain in some parts of the world
and droughts in others, including South Asia. The Australian weather office had issued an alert that some
climate models suggest El Nino will affect the weather this year, but it said forecasts made at this time of the
year are not very accurate.
Last month, the Japan Meteorological Agency said there was a 50% chance that an El Nino would set in this
summer. On Monday, the agency said the probability of the phenomenon had increased. (With inputs from
Shreya Jai in New Delhi and Jayashree Bhosale in Pune)
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12/3/2014 Freak climate in North India may damage crops; fears of El Nino phenomenon rising - Economic Times
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-11/news/48118098_1_climate-change-climate-scientists-extreme-climate-events 3/3
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Readers' opinions (70)
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12 Mar, 2014 09:08 AM
Sb Nalam (india)
weather to be dismissed away as freak....lot of hopes centre around a good monsoon...if not materialising.....let
us look for the expertise on el nino.....
12 Mar, 2014 03:50 AM
Niladrinath Mohanty (Bhubaneswar)
I have two hybrid mango trees. My emperical observation over the years is that when the flowering is more the
rainfall is goof and vice versa. Last year the flowering was profuse This year the mango flowering is scanty and I
fear less rainfall.
11 Mar, 2014 06:49 PM
DavidNutzuki (Toronto)
News editors must be clear on what the scientific consensus actually is; "climate change is real and is
happening and COULD lead to unstoppable warming." Never have they "believed" or agreed beyond; COULD be
a climate crisis so don't be so eager to "believe". Find us deniers one scientist anywhere that is as certain that
the end is near from their own crisis as they are saying evolution and comet hits are, as in; "inevitable" or
"eventual" or "proven". A consensus of "maybe" is a consensus of nothing. Deny that and be happy any crisis
was an exaggeration and stop telling children science "believes" as much as you do.
11 Mar, 2014 05:28 PM
Bumper (Kolkata)
Are these due to HAARP conspiracy??? Who knows! (Search HAARP in google).
11 Mar, 2014 07:06 PM
DavidNutzuki (Canada) replies to Bumper
Help an oil exec and a conservative are holding guns to my head and stuffing my pockets with
cash and telling me what to think and type...help!!
11 Mar, 2014 04:46 PM
rahim gautm (gurgaon)
our rulers dont know El Nino effect...its after effect...because only they are busy in ticket setting....
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