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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management


RISK MANAGEMENT

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
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Definition
What is a risk?
An uncertain event or condition that, should it occur, has a
positive or negative effect on the projects objectives. (PMBOK 4th
Edition
To qualify an event as a risk it must
Be in the ftre!
Be n"ertain!
#enerate an impa"t! p$siti%e $r negati%e&
An e%ent 'hi"h has a(rea)* $""rre) $r 'hi"h 'i(( "ertain(* $""r is
n$t a risk +t a pr$+(em& ,$'e%er if it the $""rren"e is "ertain +t
the impa"t n"ertain it "an +e treate) as a risk&
An e%ent 'hi"h has a p$siti%e effe"t $n the pr$-e"t is an
o!!ortunity
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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
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Intro"u#tion
Why shoul" $e mana%e the risks?
Be"ase m$st $f the pr$-e"ts en) p 'ith a "elay
Be"ase m$st $f the pr$-e"ts en) p 'ith "$st $%errns
Be"ase management is anti#i!ation
Be"ase t$ manage a pr$-e"t is main(* t$ )ea( 'ith un#ertainties&
Be"ase risk .anagement means a(s$ he(p f$r making )e"isi$n!
'ith s#enario stu"y&

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
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Intro"u#tion
What are the o&'e#tives of risk analysis?
T$ minimi0e the "$nse1en"es $f a)%erse events an) ma2imi0e the
res(ts $f p$siti%e events
T$ imp(ement a"ti$n p(ans re)"ing the risk(s !ro&a&ility an" ) or
im!a#t
T$ assist pr$-e"t management f$r )e"isi$n taking
T$ assess the risks impa"t $n s"he)(e an) +)get
T$ e%a(ate pr$%isi$ns ne"essar* t$ "$mpensate the risks
$""rren"e
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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
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*nkno$s ) Risks
Kno$n
+,ontra#t
--asi# "ata
-.ro'e#t #onrol
referen#e tools
/
e
v
e
l

o
f

r
i
s
k
.ro%ress
Basi" )esign 4$n"epta( Fa+ri"ati$n Insta((ati$n
Start
0inish
The kno$le"%e in#reases
The risks "e#rease
The level an" the nature of the risks evoluate $ith the !ro%ress of the !ro'e#t1
4$mmissi$ning
Intro"u#tion

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2 5 I)entif* risks
6 5 .$nit$r an) 4$ntr$( Risks
3 5 P(an Risk Resp$nses
3 5 Perf$rm 7a(itati%e ana(*sis
Score risks
Rank risks
Define action
plans
Validate data
Create model
4 Perform Quantitative analysis
Results :
Confidence level for time and cost
Duration sensitivity
Criticality index
Cruciality (Sensitivity x Criticality)
Manage
1- P(an Risk .anagement
Note: Quantitative analysis is reserved
To complex and large projects
Intro"u#tion 2Risk mana%ement !ro#esses
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Div. - Rfrence document
7
.lan Risk
Mana%ement

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3o$t$ pr$"ee) ?
Who sh$() +e in%$(%e) in 8Risk team! risk $'ners9 :
When risk management a"ti%ities sh$() +e perf$rme) :
3o$ frequently the* sh$() +e:
;h* a risk management p(an: T$ )e"i)e
.lan Risk Mana%ement2 to fi4 the #onte4t
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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
<
S#he"ule
.erforman#e
,ost
.a* the pr$-e"t ha%e
$ther $+-e"ti%es :
.lan Risk Mana%ement2 .ro'e#t o&'e#tives

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
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Pr$-e"t
!he contractors
objectives
!he o#ners
objectives
To kee! the #ost of the
investment
To transfer effi#iently to the
o!erator
To meet the !erforman#e
Et#1
To maintain #ontra#tor(s !rofit
To maintain the relations $ith
the #lient
S5#urity
Et#&
.lan Risk Mana%ement2 .ro'e#t o&'e#tives
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AREAS .hases 6&'e#tives Risk ty!es
Pr$-e"t .anagement Basi" Engineering ="he)(e >rganisati$n
Pr$-e"t "$ntr$( 4a(( f$r Ten)ers 4$st Res$r"es
Pipe(ine ?etai(e) Engineering Perf$rman"e Te"hn$($g*! te"hni"a(
P(atf$rm Pr$"rement Re%ene! @PA ="he)(e
B$gisti"s 4$nstr"ti$n =afet* 8,=E9 4$st
>perati$n 4$mmissi$ning B$"a( 4$ntent Pr$"rement
Transp$rt Inn$%ati$n B$gisti"s! transp$rt
Insta((ati$n Testing
,$$k-p C 4$mmissi$ning Interfa"es
=tart-p >perati$ns 7a(it*
>perati$ns! pr$)"ti$n
En%ir$nmentD ph*si"a(! p$(iti"a(!
(ega(! e"$n$mi"! ($"a( "$ntent
A nm+er $f frame'$rks sh$() +e se) t$ e2amine a(( areas $f
the pr$-e"t fr$m )ifferent perspe"ti%esE
.lan Risk Mana%ement + Risk #ate%ories

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The pr$+a+i(it* $f
$""rren"e
?efine (e%e(s an) "riteria
E2amp(e E / (e%e(s 8as re"$mmen)e) +* T$ta( stan)ar)s9
@$teE A risk 'ith a pr$+a+i(it* higher than 80F is n$ m$re a risk! +t a fa"t!
An) sh$() +e han)(e) in the pr$-e"t e2e"ti$n p(an&
/evel ,riteria 0a#tor
7ery *nlikely G3 F 1 ,as $""rre) rare(* $n simi(ar pr$-e"ts
*nlikely 3 F t$ 30 F 2 ,as $""rre) $n simi(ar pr$-e"ts
.ossi&le 30 F t$ 60 F / ,as $""rre) se%era( times $n simi(ar pr$-e"ts
.ro&a&le H 60F 8 ,as $""rre) %er* $ften $n simi(ar pr$-e"ts
.lan Risk Mana%ement 2 0i4 the ran%e of !ro&a&ility
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The impa"ts
?efine the "riteriaJs 8pr$-e"t $+-e"ti%es9
E2amp(e E
Finish )ate 4$st
?efine the (e%e(s f$r ea"h "riteria
E2amp(e E
Other possible criterias :
Keep the "(ient
Ensre safet*
#arant* pr$fit
et"&
/evel ,riteria Time 0a#tor
/o$ G 1 'eek 1
Me"ium 1' t$ 1 m$nth 3
3i%h 1 m$nth t$ 3
m$nths
3
7ery hi%h H 3 m$nths I
/evel ,riteria #ost 0a#tor
/o$ G 300 kL=M 1
Me"ium 0!3 t$ 1!3 .L=M 3
3i%h 1!3 t$ I .L=M 3
7ery hi%h H I .L=M I
.lan Risk Mana%ement 2 0i4 the ran%e of im!a#t

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The risk score
Probablity factor x Highest impact factor
Alternatively, the
mean impact factor
could be used instead
of the highest
Risk tit(e Pr$+a+i(it* Impa"ts Risk s"$re
Time 4$st ,=E
A 2 3 1 3 10
B 2 3 I 1/
4 / 3 1 I 28
? 1 I 3 I
E 8 I 3 36
.lan Risk Mana%ement 2 The Risk s#ore
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Define the limits of
three score families
Example :
Apply the categories in
the register
Score family 1: Score >24 highly critical risks
Score family 2: 24 >= Score > 6 moderate risks
Score familiy 3: Score <= 6 low criticality risks
Probability Weight factor 1 3 5 7
Probable >60% 8 8 24 40 56
Possible 30 to 60 % 4 4 12 20 28
Unlikely 5 to 30 % 2 2 6 10 14
Very Unlikely < 5% 1 1 3 5 7
Risk tit(e Pr$+a+i(it* Impa"ts Risk s"$re
Time 4$st ,=E
A 2 3 1 3 10
B 2 3 I 1/
4 / 3 1 I 28
? 1 3 3 3
E 8 I 3 36
.lan Risk Mana%ement 2 Define s#ore #ate%ories

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High score : Action plan needed
Medium score : Action plan suggested
Low score : Evolution to be monitored
Rea#tion
Mana%ement
Anti#i!ation
.
r
o
&
a
&
i
l
i
t
y
o
f

o
#
u
r
e
n
#
e
/evel of im!a#t
B$' ,igh
B
$
'
T$ pre%ent an) "$rre"t
A)%an"e a"ti$n
An) "$rre"ti$n
T$ pre%ent
A)%an"e a"ti$n
re1ire)
T$ "$rre"t
A"ti$n a""$r)ing
(e%e( $f impa"t
.$nit$ring
.lan Risk Mana%ement 2 Define strate%ies
Strate%ies may &e Re"u#e 8Miti%ate9: Transfer 8Insuran#e:
su&#ontra#tin%9: Avoi": A##e!t
<

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Div. - Rfrence document
17
I"entify Risks

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I)entif* an) re"$r) a lon% list of threats an" o!!ortunities f$r
the pr$-e"t an) +* '$rk pa"kage&
.ake sre a(( risks are in the #ause+risk+effe#t format
Ln)erstan) the risks
4aptre $ther inf$rmati$n t$ +e se) (aterE
.otential risk o$ner
Tri%%ers
.otential risk res!onse strate%ies
The $+-e"ti%es $f the I)entif* Risks pr$"ess areE
I"entify risks 2 6&'e#tives
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Risk
identification
Bess$ns (earne)
fr$m simi(ar pr$-e"ts
="$pe +ase(ine
A"ti%it* "$st an)
)rati$n estimates
Pr$-e"t ="he)(e
Pr$-e"t $+-e"ti%es
4$ntra"t$r risk register
I"entify risks 2 In!uts

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2
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3
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I
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Risks register
Pr$mpt (ist
Risk n$tes
Brainst$rming
E2pert inter%ie's
4ase an) effe"t
)iagrams
I"entify risks 2 Tools
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WP
Activity
Risk type
Source (Name/Dept)
Cause Risk Title Effect
Phase
Objective
Trigger Potential Risk Owner
I)entif* at (east 3 risks! ea"h $f *$! sing the risk n$tes&
;PE ;$rk pa"kage $r pr$-e"t area
TriggerE Ear(* 'arning that the risk 'i(( $""r
I"entify risks 2 Tools Risk notes

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
22
.rom!t lists
1. Technology & Engineering
2. Project Execution
3. Construction
4. Project Schedule
5. Costs
6. Contractual
REF. YES NO TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING
1.01 Is the technology well proven
1.02 Has the COMPANY built a plant using this technology
1.03 Are there any novel features in the plant design
1.04 Are we sure all process systems/units are covered by the
PFDs/PIDs
1.05
Are we sure all utility/offsite units are covered by the PFDs/PIDs
1.06 Have we identified all effluent streams
1.07 Have we confirmed all effluents streams are treated/ disposed of
satisfactorilly
I"entify risks2 Tools
12

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
23
1. Technology & Engineering
2. Project Execution
3. Construction
4. Project Schedule
5. Costs
6. Contractual
REF. YES NO PROJECT EXECUTION
2.01 Is the workscope within the contract clear
2.02 Is there a clear order of precedence of project
scope/specification documents
2.03 Are interfaces between OWNER and CONTRACTOR
workscopes clear
2.04 Are interfaces with other intervening parties clear
2.05 Have OWNER and CONTRACTOR successfull past
experience
2.06 Is the CONTRACTOR familiar with the OWNER procedures
2.07 Are the OWNER procedures onerous for a LSTK contract
I"entify risks2 Tools
.rom!t lists

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
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I"entify risks2 Tools
Some hints
I"entify the #ause an" #onsequen#e for ea#h risk
This 'i(( he(p 'hen fin)ing a"ti$n p(ans
I"entify an o$ner for ea#h risk
,e 'i(( +e in "harge $f p)ating the stats an) "$$r)inating the a"ti$n p(ans
Make sure the level of "etail is #oherent throu%h out the risk re%ister1
Make sure every i"entifie" risk is an event
Wor"in% must &e a##urate an" vali"ate" &y the o$ner
Re#or" every risks in one re%ister to%ether $ith su!!ort information
13

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
23
?ifferent RegisterNs t$$( ma* +e se)E
4st$m ma)e t$$(sE $pread sheet, %ata base
?e)i"ate) app(i"ati$nsE Oracle &is' Anal(sis, Active &is' Manager fro) $trategic
!hought, Predict fro) &is' %ecisions
I"entify risks2 Tools
Risk
ID Status Type RBS Area Title Description Cause Consequence
073 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.HS
E
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
human incident during contruction (handling
incident, diving incident, ...)
human incident during construction (
diving incident, ...)
High current in sea at site
Low visibility in sea at site
Exposition to sea state
LTI, Fatalities
086 Proposed Threat
Contra
ctual
Contra
cting
commercial offers exceeding pre project
estimation
commercial offers exceeding pre project
estimation
Project difficulties
Re bidding
Project cancellation
017 Proposed Threat
Extern
al.Wea
ther
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
Standby due to weather condiitons worse
than estimated
Standby due to weather condiitons
worse than estimated
weather condiitons worse than estimated
Delay
Cost of standby
071 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.Inst
allation
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
shore approach not technically feasible or not
feasible as per CPY requirements
shore approach not technically feasible
or not feasible as per CPY requirements
Combination of :
Soil
Meteocean
Available means
Relax CPY requirements or change
pipeline routes
079 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.Inst
allation
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
Failure of trenching contractor to bury pipe
Failure of trenching contractor to bury
pipe
Poor performance of trenching contractor
Pipeline potentially unstable and
exposed to stone blasting (4" pipe
particularly)
032 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.HS
E
HSE
Fire on board on installation barge or spread
vessel
Fire on board on installation barge or
spread vessel
Extinguishing system failure
Personnel not trained
Fire detection failure
Injuries and vessel damage
Dealy (Mob of new vessels)
Repairs to be done
038 Proposed Threat
Extern
al.Loca
l
content
Govern
ment
affairs
New Request of local content New Request of local content New government regulation Delay on project

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Div. - Rfrence document
26
.erform qualitative
analysis
1/

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Su&'e#tively evaluate the !ro&a&ility an" im!a#t of ea#h risk
,reate a shorter list of risks &y "eterminin% the to! or #riti#al
risks
3el! makin% a %o)no+%o "e#ision 80inal Investment De#ision9
The $+-e"ti%es $f the 7a(itati%e ana(*sis pr$"ess areE
.erform qualitative analysis2 6&'e#tives

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Assum!tions testin%
O;e spp$se the 'eather 'i(( +e fineP
Data quality assessment
Am$nt an) re(ia+i(it* $f )ata a%ai(a+(e a+$t the risk
.ro&a&ility an" im!a#t s#ales
Pr$%i)e) +* the risk management p(an
?etermining Risk rankin% 'ithin the pr$-e"t +* "a("(ating the
risk s#ore
The a"ti%ities $f the 7a(itati%e ana(*sis pr$"ess areE
.erform qualitative analysis2 A#tivities
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Date :
Rev. :
Risk Owner : Jack
AREA :
INSTALLATION 6
Risk ID : R001 Statut : Proposed
28
Title :
Description :
Causes :
Consequences :
Impacts : PRODUCTION : 3 COST : Probability :
DELIVERY HSE : Planning :
Probability : 2 Criticality : 6 Cost :
Mitigation action Responsible Status Planned Date Actual Date
1 - Ted Proposed
2 - Patrick Proposed
3 - Proposed
4 - Proposed
Impacts : PRODUCTION : COST : Probability :
DELIVERY: REVENUE : Planning :
Probability : Criticality : 3 Cost :
Notes :
Action 2
Risk 1
Pre-Mitigation
qualitative quantitative
Action
Action 1
Risk Sheet
RBS :
BORGAS INC
BORGAS 2011 PROJECT
.erform qualitative analysis2 Risk sheet

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The risk score is the product of the probability by its impact. If there are
several impacts (cost, schedule, performance), we choose the
maximum impact.
Risk tit(e Pr$+a+i(it* Risk s"$re
Time 4$st ,=E
A 2 3 1 3 10
B 2 3 I 1/
4 / 3 1 I 28
? 1 3 3 3
E 8 I 3 36
Impa"ts
.erform qualitative analysis2 ,al#ulate risk s#ore
16

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Risk
ID Status Type RBS Area Title Proba
bility
Sched
ule
Cost Hygie
n/Safe
ty
Envir
onm
ent
Imag
e
score Risk Owner
073 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.HS
E
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
human incident during contruction (handling
incident, diving incident, ...)
H L VL VH L H 28 HSE Manager
086 Proposed Threat
Contra
ctual
Contra
cting
commercial offers exceeding pre project
estimation
H H VH N N VH 28
Project
Control
Manager
017 Proposed Threat
Extern
al.Wea
ther
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
Standby due to weather condiitons worse
than estimated
H L H H N N 20 Pipe WPM
071 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.Inst
allation
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
shore approach not technically feasible or not
feasible as per CPY requirements
H H H N N N 20 Pipe WPM
079 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.Inst
allation
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
Failure of trenching contractor to bury pipe H L L H L N 20 Pipe WPM
032 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.HS
E
HSE
Fire on board on installation barge or spread
vessel
L L VL VH L L 14 HSE Manager
038 Proposed Threat
Extern
al.Loca
l
content
Govern
ment
affairs
New Request of local content L VH L N N N 14
Project
Manager
Pre-Mitigated index
F$r ea"h risk! a Risk o$ner is app$inte)
The )ifferent risks are ranke" a""$r)ing t$ their risk s"$re
.erform qualitative analysis2 Risk o$ner

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Div. - Rfrence document
32
.lan Risk Res!onses
1I

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?etermine 'hat "an +e )$ne t$ re"u#e the overall risk of the
!ro'e#t +* )e"reasing the pr$+a+i(it* an) impa"t $f threats
an) in#reasin% the !ro&a&ility an" im!a#t of o!!ortunities&
The a"ti%ities 'ith the highest risk s"$re
The m$st "$mm$n "ases if risk
The $+-e"ti%es $f the Risk Resp$nse ana(*sis pr$"ess areE
It 'i(( "$n"ernE
It 'i(( +e )$ne a""$r)ing t$ the risk resp$nse strateg* )efine)
in the Risk .anagement P(an
.lan risk res!onses 2 6&'e#tives

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A%$i) Transfer
Re)"e
Re)"e
pr$+a+i(it*
Re)"e
impa"t
Facing a risk
Transferring a risk
is often partial
Delete cause
and consequence
Risk accepted
by the project
Action plan
1 person responsible
1 target date
1 follow up indicator
1 evaluation of potential incidence on the
risk
1 Action =
A""ept
Included in
project perimeter
Allocate
provisions
.lan Risk Res!onses 2 Strate%ies for risks
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E2p($it =hare
Enhan"e
In"rease
pr$+a+i(it*
In"rease
impa"t
Facing an
opportunity
Retain part of
opportunities
Increase the
opportunity by
making the cause
more probable
Increase the value of
the opportunity
Action plan
1 person responsible
1 target date
1 follow up indicator
1 evaluation of potential incidence on the
opportunity
1 Action =
A""ept
Include in project
perimeter
Allocate
provisions
.lan Risk Res!onses 2 Strate%ies for o!!ortunities

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
36
.ro#ess Summary 8Miti%ation strate%y9
I)entif* Risks Risk ="$ring Risk =$rting
4reate
a"ti$n p(ans @e' s"$ring
.lan Risk Res!onses 2 Tar%et Risk S#ore
Risk
ID Status Type RBS Area Title Proba
bility
Sched
ule
Cost Hygie
n/Safe
ty
Envir
onm
ent
Imag
e
score Proba
bility
Sched
ule
Cost Hygie
n/Safe
ty
Enviro
nment
Imag
e
score Risk Owner
073 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.HS
E
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
human incident during contruction (handling
incident, diving incident, ...)
H L VL VH L H 28 L L L VH L L 14 HSE Manager
086 Proposed Threat
Contra
ctual
Contra
cting
commercial offers exceeding pre project
estimation
H H VH N N VH 28 H H VH N N VH 28
Project
Control
Manager
017 Proposed Threat
Extern
al.Wea
ther
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
Standby due to weather condiitons worse
than estimated
H L H H N N 20 L L L VL N N 6 Pipe WPM
071 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.Inst
allation
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
shore approach not technically feasible or not
feasible as per CPY requirements
H H H N N N 20 L L L N N N 6 Pipe WPM
079 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.Inst
allation
WP2
Pipe
Installa
tion
Failure of trenching contractor to bury pipe H L L H L N 20 H L H H L N 20 Pipe WPM
032 Proposed Threat
Techni
cal.HS
E
HSE
Fire on board on installation barge or spread
vessel
L L VL VH L L 14 VL L VL H L L 5 HSE Manager
038 Proposed Threat
Extern
al.Loca
l
content
Govern
ment
affairs
New Request of local content L VH L N N N 14 L H L N N N 10
Project
Manager
Pre-Mitigated index Post-Mitigated index
1<

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
3I
Mitigation plans Status
/ Owner / Date
1 - 01/10/2008
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7-
8 -
Probability target: VL Impact: Cost M
M
First oil Schedule M
Criticality Target: 4 Ramp up Schedule M
Notes:
Action
Perf$rm a)it $n "rit"a( e(ements re1iring a(ternati%e s$r"e $f spp(*
.lan Risk Res!onses 2 Risk Sheet

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,ontin%en#y !lanE a p(an )e%e($pe) in anti"ipati$n $f the
$""rren"e $f a risk! t$ +e e2e"te) $n(* if spe"ifi"!
pre)etermine) trigger "$n)iti$ns arise&
The ear(* 'arning $f the risk $""rren"e is "a((e) the tri%%er
0all&a#k !lanE a rea"ti$n t$ a risk that has $""rre) an) the
primar* resp$nse 8"$ntingen"* p(an9 pr$%es t$ +e ina)e1ate&
.lan Risk Res!onses 2 ,ontin%en#y an" fall&a#k .lans
20

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Div. - Rfrence document
39
Monitor an" ,ontrol
Risks

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Imp(ement the risk resp$nse p(ans
.anage the "$ntingen"* an) management reser%es
4$ntr$( the pr$-e"t risk
Perf$rm a))iti$na( risk i)entifi"ati$n
Re-estimate the pr$-e"t
4reate OBess$ns (earne)P
The objectives of the Monitor and Control Risks
process are
Monitor an" ,ontrol Risks 2 6&'e#tives
21

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
/1
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4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Oct 06 Dec 06 Feb 06 Apr 07 June 07 Aug 07 Oct 07 Dec 07 Feb 08 Apr 08 Jun 08 Aug 08
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

c
r
i
t
i
c
i
t
y
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
R
i
s
k
s

O
p
e
n
e
d

/

M
i
t
i
g
a
t
i
n
g

a
c
t
i
o
n
s
Quantity of Risks Opened in the register Number of mitigating actions
Project average criticality Project residual criticality (target)
In)i"at$rsE @m+er $f $pene) Risks! $f mitigating a"ti$ns! pr$-e"t
"riti"a(it*
Monitor an" ,ontrol Risks 2 In"i#ators

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
/2
Risks distribution
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Package
1
Package
2
Package
3
Package
4
Package
5
Package
6
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y

o
f

r
i
s
k
s
High crit icalit y - Immediat e
act ions required
Mediumcrit icalit y - Act ions
required
Low crit icalit y - To be monit ored
In)i"at$rsE Risk repartiti$n +* "riti"a(it*
;ualitative analysis
22


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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
/3
.erform ;uantitative Analysis


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.ake m$re inf$rme) )e"isi$ns a+$t the amount of risk
;at"h the effe"t $f the #om&ination $f a(( risks t$gether
?etermine the !ro&a&ility of a#hievin% "$st an) s"he)(e
$+-e"ti%es $n the pr$-e"t&
#i%e an e%a(ati$n $f the !otential %a! &et$een o&'e#tives
an) m$st pr$+a+(e figres 8P809
The $+-e"ti%es $f the 7antitati%e Ana(*sis pr$"ess areE
Perform Quantitative analysis Objectives
23


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E2pe"te) .$netar* Aa(e is the pr$+a+i(it* 'eighte) a%erage $f a((
p$ssi+(e $t"$mes an) is "a("(ate) as
E.A Q P 2 I
Perform Quantitative analysis Expected Monetary Value
;uantitative Risk Analysis 0orm
Risk A#tivity .ro&a&ility ,ost
Im!a#t
EM7 of the
,ost
Risk move" into .lan
Risk Res!onse
<= - >?@ AB?1??? A<C1??? Des
<> , E?@ A=?1??? AF?1??? Des
F< - FE@ A<?1??? AF1E?? No
B E <E@ 8A>?1???9 8A=1E??9 Des
<E A <E@ 8AG?1???9 8A<>1E??9 Des
Total E4!e#te" Monetary 7alue AFF1E??


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A reser%e is an am$nt $f time an)R$r "$st a))e) t$ the
pr$-e"t t$ a""$nt f$r risks&
,ontin%en#y reserve t$ )ea( 'ith kn$'n nkn$'ns! i&e&! the
i)entifie) resi)a( risks that remain after risk resp$nse
p(anning& 8Pr$%isi$n p$r Ris1es9
Mana%ement reserve t$ )ea( 'ith nkn$'n nkn$'ns! i&e&!
risks that ha%e n$t +een i)entifie)&
A meth$) t$ "a("(ate the reser%e is t$ se the "a("(ate) E.A
$f the pr$-e"t! then t$ a)) a per"entage $f the pr$-e"t "$st as
a management reser%e& 8Pr$%isi$n p$r A(Sas9
Perform Quantitative analysis Reserves
There are different kinds of reserve: Contingency
reserves and management reserve
2/


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Perform quantitative analysis Schedule analysis - Principle
The pr$-e"t s"he)(e is use" as a mo"el t$ f$re"ast pr$-e"t
$t"$mes&
Mo"el out!uts may &e
>tpt .i(est$nes )ates 8Pr$-e"t $r ;P finish )ate9
Pr$-e"t )rati$n
Pr$-e"t $r '$rk pa"kage "$st
Mo"el in!uts may &e
Task )rati$n
Inpt mi(est$nes )ates
Res$r"es "$st

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
/8
S#he"ule quantitative analysis 2 ,reate a mo"el
The a##ura#y of the mo"el makes the !ertinen#e of the result
Goo" level of "etail 8Detail only for the risky !arts9
/inks on every tasks 8No o!en+en"e" tasks: no #onstraints9
.ertinent links &et$een tasks 8No ne%ative la%s9
Risks an" un#ertainties !ro!erly simulate"
23

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
/<
Ea"h task )rati$n ma*
ha%e a 3-p$int estimate&
The )e(a* risk impa"t 'i((
+e a))e) t$ the task
)rati$n! gi%ing the risk
impa"te) task )rati$n&
S#he"ule ;uantitative analysis 2 ,reate a mo"el
Pr$-e"t ?etai(
Pr$+a+i(it*
F
P2I
@+ $f
risks
.in
.$st
(ike(*
.a2
Pipe ?etai(e) Eng
R1
R2
Pipe Pr$"rement
Pipe Transp$rtati$n
R3
@earsh$re pipe insta((ati$n
R/
R3
R6
RI
Barge .$+i(i0ati$n
R8
R<
=taff C T$$(s m$+i(i0ati$n
>ffsh$re pipe insta((ati$n
=tee( pr$"rement
P(atf$rm ?etai(e) Eng
P(atf$rm "$nstr"ti$n
P(atf$rm insta((ati$n
P(atf$rm "$mmissi$n$ing
T$ta( - 0
Risk 4$st Impa"t 8kL=M9

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
30
E2amp(e sing >ra"(e Risk Ana(*sis s$ft'are
.in )rati$n
.ean )rati$n
.a2 )rati$n&
?istri+ti$n
F $f $""ren"e
;uantitative analysis 2 ,reate a mo"el
26

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
31
Determine the sha!e of un#ertainty s!rea"in%
TT"he - U
Trian%ular E .inimm an) ma2imm
)rati$ns are n$t (ike(* t$ +e met& The
interme)iate )rati$n is the m$st
pr$+a+(e
*niformE E%er* )rati$n are e1a((*
(ike(* t$ happen
-eta E The minimm an) ma2imm
)rati$ns ha%e a "ertain pr$+a+i(it* t$
happen
The shape is se(e"te) a""$r)ing t$ the "hara"teristi" $f the n"ertaint*
;uantitative analysis 2 ,reate a mo"el

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
32
33
/3
2I
/2
38
20
1 3 I 13 21 28 3/ 3< /3 /6
2 / 8 1/ 22
12
3
6
< 13
10 16
2< 33
30 36
/0 //
/1
3I 2/ 31
23
23 11 1I
/I
/8
32
26 18
1<
10 -$rs
< -$rs
1/ -$rs
1I -$rs
10 -$rs
.in Pr$+a+(e .a2
Et"&
?ring ea"h iterati$n! f$r ea"h task! a )rati$n is ran)$m(*
se(e"te) 'ithin the shape $f the )rati$n pr$fi(e
;uantitative analysis 2 The Monte ,arlo metho"
2I

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
33
;uantitative analysis 2 The Monte ,arlo metho"
The num&er of iteration is in the ran%e of a thousan"
0or ea#h iteration #orres!on"s a s!e#ifi# set of "urations
3en#e
A range $f en) )ates
A series $f )ifferent "riti"a( paths

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
3/
/evel of #onfi"en#eE
A ran%e of en" "ate $ith their relevant !ro&a&ility of o##urren#e
;uantitative analysis 2 The Monte ,arlo metho"
26/12/2013 05/04/2014 14/07/2014
Distribution (start of interval)
0
100
200
300
400
H
i
t
s
0% 05/10/2013
5% 15/10/2013
10% 19/10/2013
15% 24/10/2013
20% 29/10/2013
25% 01/11/2013
30% 06/11/2013
35% 10/11/2013
40% 15/11/2013
45% 20/11/2013
50% 25/11/2013
55% 01/12/2013
60% 06/12/2013
65% 12/12/2013
70% 18/12/2013
75% 27/12/2013
80% 05/01/2014
85% 18/01/2014
90% 04/02/2014
95% 25/02/2014
100% 11/07/2014
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
(Pre-mitigated)
000092 - Ready for drilling : Finish Date
The )eterministi" )ate
f$r VRea)* f$r ?ri((ingN
8'ith$t risks9 is
3R10R2013&
The 80F pr$+a+(e Finish
)ate is 3R01R201/&
;h* the )eterministi"
)ate is s$ (itt(e pr$+a+(e:
28

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
33
The level of sensi&ilityE
/evel of #ontri&ution of a task to the overall "uration
;uantitative analysis 2 The Monte ,arlo metho"
0%
6%
6%
15%
17%
19%
20%
21%
35%
53% 000098 - Offshore Pipeline installation (24" & 4"MEG) + c
000090 - Installation: jacket + deck
000096 - Barge mobilization
0340 - Construction: deck (hyp: x t) 2
000095 - Sealine Detailed engineering
0350 - Platform Detailed engineering 3
000091 - Hook-up and commissioning
0320 - Platform Detailed engineering 2
000086 - Platform Detailed engineering 1
0390 - Pipeline procurement
(Pre-mitigated)
Schedule Sensitivity Index: " 000092 - Ready for drilling" - All tasks

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
36
The level of #riti#ityE
The !ro!ortion of iterations $hen the task is on the #riti#al !ath
;uantitative analysis 2 The Monte ,arlo metho"
91%
91%
91%
91%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100% 000092 - Ready for drilling
000101 - Drilling for 1st oil
000102 - Drilling for ramp-up
000103 - Drilling remaining
000105 - RFSU
0300 - Drilling done
000099 - Overall Pressure Testing
000106 - Onshore Basic Engineering
000116 - Onshore Detailed Engineering
000126 - Onshore Construction
(Pre-mitigated)
Criticality Index
2<

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0%
2%
2%
12%
12%
12%
12%
15%
36%
37% 000098 - Offshore Pipeline installation (24" & 4"MEG) + c
000090 - Installation: jacket + deck
000091 - Hook-up and commissioning
000095 - Sealine Detailed engineering
0350 - Platform Detailed engineering 3
0340 - Construction: deck (hyp: x t) 2
000096 - Barge mobilization
000086 - Platform Detailed engineering 1
0320 - Platform Detailed engineering 2
0410 - Pipeline concrete coating
(Pre-mitigated)
Duration Cruciality: " 000092 - Ready for drilling" - All tasks
EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
3I
The level of #rutialityE
,om&ination of sensi&ility $ith #riti#ity
It is on the hi%h #rutiality task
that it is more effi#ient to a#t
;uantitative analysis 2 The Monte ,arlo metho"

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
38
=imi(ar appr$a"h "an +e
app(ie) t$ "$st risks 'ith
the "$st items rep(a"ing
the tasks&
;uantitative analysis + ,ost
Pr$-e"t ?etai(
Pr$+a+i(it*
F
P2I
@+ $f
risks
.in
.$st
(ike(*
.a2
Pipe ?etai(e) Eng
R1
R2
Pipe Pr$"rement
Pipe Transp$rtati$n
R3
@earsh$re pipe insta((ati$n
R/
R3
R6
RI
Barge .$+i(i0ati$n
R8
R<
=taff C T$$(s m$+i(i0ati$n
>ffsh$re pipe insta((ati$n
=tee( pr$"rement
P(atf$rm ?etai(e) Eng
P(atf$rm "$nstr"ti$n
P(atf$rm insta((ati$n
P(atf$rm "$mmissi$n$ing
T$ta( - 0
Risk 4$st Impa"t 8kL=M9
30

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
3<
;uantitative analysis + ,ost
Similarly to the s#he"ule analysis: ea#h iteration $ill #om&ine a
"ifferent set of #ost for ea#h &u"%et line
3en#e
The $%era(( "$st "an )iffer as a res(tE W

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
60
The level of #onfi"en#eE
An evaluation of the #ontin%en#ies nee"e" to #over the !otential #ost overrun
;uantitative analysis + ,ost
31

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
61
The level of sensi&ilityE
/evel of #ontri&ution of ea#h
#ost item to the overall #ost
;uantitative analysis + ,ost

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
62
6r%aniHe an" mana%e the Risk analysis
Im!lement a metho"olo%y as state" in the Risk Mana%ement .lan
@ame a resp$nsi+(e 8Risk manager9
>pen a +)get f$r the ana(*sis
?efine the timing $f the risk meetings
?efine strategies t$ +e app(ie)
=e(e"t a t$$( f$r 7a(itati%e an)R$r 7antitati%e Risk Ana(*sis
Insure follo$u! of a#tion !lans
*!"ate the re%ister $ith relevant risks i"entifie" &y the
#ontra#tor1
*!"ate re%ularly the ;uantitative Risk Analysis an" the
asso#iate" reserves1
32

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EP 21388_a_A_ppt_01 - Risk management
63
6r%aniHe an" mana%e the analysis
The main sour#es of !ro'e#t stakehol"ers resistan#e to the risk
mana%ement !ro#ess are
Relu#tan#es on 'ustifyin% an" "etailin% the res!onsi&ilities
S!irit of fatality for future "iffi#ulties
0eelin% of loss of !o$er
0eelin% of a"mittin% the $eakness
Relu#tan#es on "e#i"in% on #orre#tive a#tions

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