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CRISIL CRBCustomised Research Bulletin

February 2013
Sector Focus: Real Estate
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Foreword

In this issue, we have looked at unfolding trends in the real estate sector,
as well as some of the other related sectors such as hotels, retail and
hospitals.

The year 2012 was a relatively tough one for the real estate sector in
India. The macro-economic environment of high interest rates and
sluggish growth coupled with continued high prices across most cities led
to slowing of demand for real estate. As potential buyers remained in
wait-and-watch mode, developers reacted by going slow on new project
launches across segments (residential, commercial office space, and
retail).

The residential real estate market saw a decline in transactions (new
apartment sales) across most of the 10 major cities, with NCR and Kochi
the worst hit; in terms of average capital values, these 10 cities only grew
by a marginal 3-5 per cent y-o-y. The relatively better performers among
them were Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, and Pune. Demand for commercial
office space, which has remained subdued ever since the economic
slowdown of 2009, continued to be muted with corporate houses going
slow on expansions. Lease rentals in both commercial and retail real
estate space remained flat in 2012 vis--vis 2011.

The hotel sector too had a similarly subdued year. The prevailing macro-
economic climate took a toll on room demand, as both domestic and
foreign tourist arrivals declined across both business and leisure
destinations. Average occupancy rates (ORs) of premium segment hotels
fell by over 400 basis points as the impact of this demand slowdown
coincided with huge supply additions. Due to this demand-supply
mismatch, the industrys revenue per available room (RevPAR) this year
is estimated to be at an 8-year low.

In retail, despite the central governments decision to open up the multi-
brand retail segment to foreign direct investment, there is unlikely to be
an immediate flurry of activity from foreign players. CRISIL Research
expects FDI flows of only US $ 2.5 billion - 3 billion over the next 5 years
in the organised retail sector. Even when top foreign retailers eventually
foray into India, they will find that retailing here comes with its own unique
set of challenges. The food and grocery (F&G) vertical, for instance,
accounts for nearly two thirds of all organised retail in the country, yet it



2


CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin


















































Foreword
remains one of the most challenging due to low gross margins on
products sold, and logistical challenges, particularly in the supply chain. It
is, thus, an opportune time to understand the challenges confronting the
F&G retail segment, and the steps that players can take to improve both
gross margins and IRRs. In this issue, we have done precisely that.

This edition also throws light on the daunting challenges ahead of Indias
hospital segment over the next few years. Although the healthcare
delivery industry size is currently an estimated Rs 3 trillion, India is far
short of several global benchmarks for healthcare delivery. Our estimates
suggest that investments of nearly Rs 7 trillion will be needed over the
next five years just to reach the global median of 24 beds per 10,000
persons.

We are confident that you will find this edition informative and useful.


Prasad Koparkar
Senior Director
Industry & Customised Research






































































































Opinion
Segment-wise review of the Indian real estate market 01

Interview
Binaifer Jehani, Director CRISIL Research 04

Economic Overview February 2013 06

Industry Overview
Hospitals 07
Hotels 09
Organised Retail 11
Educational services 13

Independent Equity Research Report
Ashiana Housing Ltd. 15

Customised Research Services
Real Estate 16

Media Coverage 17

Contents

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin


1

1. Residential Real Estate
Macro-economic factors dampened transactions
in 2012
The year 2012 saw macro-economic factors weighing
down the growth of residential capital values across the
10 major cities in India (namely Mumbai, NCR,
Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune,
Ahmedabad, Chandigarh and Kochi). High interest
rates coupled with sticky inflation continued to exert
pressure on demand as potential buyers chose to
remain in a wait-and-watch mode. As a result, the
number of transactions across these cities either
remained stable or declined from the 2011 levels.
Average capital values in the 10 cities grew at a
marginal rate of 3-5 per cent in 2012 on a y-o-y basis.
The growth, however, was seen primarily in the latter
half of the year.

Capital value index (for 10 major cities)

Note: Indexed to 2005
Source: CRISIL Research

Mumbai and NCR to account for over half of the
total estimated supply during 2013-2015
As far as residential supply in the 10 major cities is
concerned, nearly 2.1 billion sq ft is planned of which
CRISIL Research expects nearly 67 per cent or around

1.4 billion sq ft. to come up by 2015. Mumbai and NCR
alone are expected to account for nearly 55 per cent of
the estimated supply.

Planned v/s CRISIL Research's estimated supply
(2013-15)

Source: CRISIL Research

2. Commercial Office Space
Rentals in 90 per cent of the micro-markets
across 10 major cities remain lower than their
2008 peaks
During the economic slowdown of 2008-09, demand for
commercial office space especially from the IT/ITeS
and BFSI sectors plummeted leading to a sharp
correction in lease rentals. Between the first half of
2008 and the second half of 2009, average lease
rentals corrected by almost 25-30 per cent. The
subsequent period has seen a rather sideward
movement in average lease rentals in the 10 major
cities barring a few micro-markets which have
witnessed either an uptrend or a downtrend. During this
period, demand gained momentum briefly in the first
half of 2011, but the existing vacancy levels prevented
any major appreciation in lease rentals. A lean demand
scenario has also adversely impacted the execution of
many projects. Currently, lease rentals in almost 90 per
100
120
140
160
180
200
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
H
1

2
0
0
8
H
2

2
0
0
8
H
1

2
0
0
9
H
2

2
0
0
9
H
1

2
0
1
0
H
2

2
0
1
0
H
1

2
0
1
1
H
2

2
0
1
1
H
1

2
0
1
2
H
2

2
0
1
2
Capital Value Index
20
40
62
73
91
104
91
132
167
605
27
69
99
101
133
152
155
179
269
877
Kochi
Chandigarh Tricity
Kolkata
Ahmedabad
Chennai
Hyderabad
Bengaluru
Pune
Mumbai - MMR
NCR
Planned Supply (mn sq ft.)
CRISIL Research's Estimated Supply (2013-15) (mn sq ft.)
Opinion
Segment-wise review of the Indian real
estate market



2

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin
cent of the micromarkets in the 10 major cities are
nearly 25-30 per cent below their peak levels seen in
the first half of 2008.

Lease rental index (for commercial office spaces in
10 major cities)

*Excludes Ahmedabad since transactions happen on outri ght
basis
Note: Indexed to 2005
Source: CRISIL Research

Only 37 per cent of the total planned supply to
materialise by 2015; oversupply to persist
Of the total supply of 445 million sq ft planned across
10 major cities (Mumbai, NCR, Bengaluru, Kolkata,
Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh
and Kochi), CRISIL Research expects around 167
million sq ft of office space to come up during 2013-
2015. Of the likely supply additions, NCR, Bengaluru
and Pune will together account for nearly 53 per cent. In
relation to supply, demand is expected to be at about
66 million sq ft during the 2013-2015 period.








Planned v/s CRISIL Research's estimated supply
(2013-15)

Source: CRISIL Research

3. Organised Retail
Vacancy levels continue to impact growth in
rentals
In the post 2008-09 era, the organised retail real estate
segment has struggled to gain traction due to the
prevailing oversupply. In the period since the first half of
2010, lease rentals have remained flat in most micro-
markets across the 10 major cities in India due to high
vacancy levels. Rentals have not breached the peak
levels seen during the first half of 2008 in any of the
micro-markets across the 10 major cities.

Lease rental index (for retail spaces in 10 major
cities)

Note: Indexed to 2005
Source: CRISIL Research
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
H
1

2
0
0
8
H
2

2
0
0
8

H
1

2
0
0
9
H
2

2
0
0
9
H
1

2
0
1
0
H
2

2
0
1
0
H
1

2
0
1
1
H
2

2
0
1
1
H
1

2
0
1
2
H
2

2
0
1
2
Lease Rental Index
2
2
8
12
12
20
24
23
26
38
7
15
16
28
29
55
61
67
75
93
Chandigarh Tricity
Kochi
Ahmedabad
Chennai
Kolkata
Mumbai - MMR
Hyderabad
Pune
Bengaluru
NCR
Planned supply (mn sq ft.)
CRISIL Research expected supply (2013-15) (mn sq ft.)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8

H
1
2
0
0
8

H
2
H
1

2
0
0
9
H
2

2
0
0
9
H
1

2
0
1
0
H
2

2
0
1
0
H
1

2
0
1
1
H
2

2
0
1
1
H
1

2
0
1
2
H
2

2
0
1
2
Lease Rental Index


3

NCR to see maximum additions in mall space
during 2013 to 2015
The total planned supply of retail space across the 10
major cities is estimated at about 67 million sq ft, of
which CRISIL Research expects abound 38 million sq ft
to come up during the 2013-2015 period. In number
terms, CRISIL Research expects about 80 malls out of
the total planned 141 malls to come up by 2015, of
which 15 malls are expected to come up in NCR.

Planned v/s CRISIL Research's estimated supply
(2013-15)

Source: CRISIL Research


4
4
5
2
6
8
12
10
14
15
5
6
7
8
8
15
15
18
27
32
Kolkata
Chennai
Mumbai - MMR
Kochi
Chandigarh Tri-city
Pune
Ahmedabad
Bengaluru
Hyderabad
NCR
Planned malls
CRISIL Research's estimated supply of malls (2013-2015)
(No. of units)



4

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin

Binaifer Jehani, Director, CRISIL Research, leads the
research function on the real estate sector at CRISIL
Research. She is responsible for overseeing a large
team of analysts, offering comprehensive research
coverage on real estate, spanning residential,
commercial and retail space. Her areas of expertise
also comprise healthcare delivery, hospitality and
housing finance.

In addition, Binaifer manages customised assignments,
which involve gauging the feasibility, underlying market
potential, etc of prospective business models for
developers, private equity firms, investment bankers
and banks. Research findings of such bespoke
assignments empower these players to make informed
and effective investment decisions.

Binaifer joined CRISIL in 2004. During the course of her
eight-year stint, she has successfully handled several
projects, involving estimation of market and financial
feasibility. These projects have driven critical business
activities in areas of expansion, capacity building, etc.
She has been an active participant at real estate
forums, where she proffered valuable insights and
opinions on vital sectoral issues.

In 2008, Binaifer pioneered the product called City
Reality, which determined underlying potential in the
top ten cities of India. Further, in 2011, she was
instrumental in conceptualising the Reality Next report,
covering the newly emerging cities, by going beyond
the conventional top ten Indian cities.

Binaifer is a Qualified Chartered Accountant and holds
a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Administration
with specialisation in finance from Symbiosis Institute of
Business Management in Pune.












What is your outlook on prices in the
residential and commercial office space
segments of the Indian real estate market over
the next 2 years?
With the macro-economic environment keeping
potential buyers in a wait-and-watch mode, the year
2012 saw the residential real estate market in India
struggle. Factors such as high interest rates and sticky
inflation continued to impact buyer sentiments and led
to a fall in transactions across the 10 major cities of
India (Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Chandigarh,
Hyderabad, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, NCR and Pune).
However, with a reduction in interest rates and an
expected improvement in macro-economic conditions,
CRISIL Research expects demand conditions to
improve in 2013 and 2014, enabling a 5-7 per cent y-o-
y growth in average capital values in 2013 and another
6-8 per cent in 2014.

The economic uncertainty of 2012 also affected
demand in the commercial office space segments in the
10 cities. However, with the overall economy expected
to fare better in 2013 and with certain IT majors reviving
hiring, CRISIL Research expects office space rentals to
appreciate by 2-4 per cent in 2013 and by 3-5 per cent
in 2014, after ending relatively flat in 2012. With a
decline in the launch of commercial office space,
vacancy levels are also expected to fall. A further
Interview
Binaifer Jehani
Director, CRISIL Research



5
decline in lease rentals from the current levels is
unlikely as we believe that the lease rentals have
already bottomed out.

Taking off from the previous question, in the
next couple of years which of the 10 major
cities is expected to outperform others in the
residential segment?
As far as the residential segment is concerned, Pune,
Hyderabad and NCR are expected to see the maximum
growth in capital values in 2013 and 2014. Of these,
Pune will be one city to watch out for over the next
couple of years. CRISIL Research expects average
residential capital values in Pune to grow at a CAGR of
10 per cent till 2014, vis--vis the 2012 levels. Growth
will be driven by factors such as Punes proximity to
Mumbai and the relatively affordable rates, upcoming
infrastructure such as the metro rail and an international
airport at Rajgurunagar. Another important aspect that
is expected to work in Punes favour is its status as a
preferred IT/ITeS hub. With the majors in this industry
moving into a hiring mode, we expect demand for
residential units to increase. These factors, therefore,
will work in tandem to maintain a steady demand for
houses over the next two years.

What are your views on the retail industry in
India and on the retail real estate space?
The year 2011-12 was difficult for organised retailers.
Revenue growth of most players dipped sharply on
account of weak consumer sentiments. Apparel prices
also rose sharply with the increase in cotton prices and
the levy of excise duty on branded apparel led to flat-to-
negative volume growth for apparels. This added to the
woes of organised retailers (as apparel accounts for
one-third of organised retail). Growth slowed down in
same store sales. Overall, growth in organised retail
was lower at 16 per cent in 2011-12 as compared with a
strong 23 per cent growth in 2010-11. In 2012-13, we
expect organised retail growth to remain subdued at 8-
10 per cent. However, over the longer run, CRISIL
Research expects the organised retail growth to remain
robust, growing at an annual average rate of 20 per
cent to Rs 4.0 trillion in 2016-17 from Rs 1.6 trillion in
2011-12. The factors that will drive the growth of Indias
organized retail industry are favorable demographic
change, rising disposable incomes, urbanization,
nuclearisation, etc.

Lease rentals for retail real estate space, which
remained flat in 2012, are expected to go up in 2013
and 2014. Limited supply additions (of malls) coupled
with an improvement in demand will enable this
increase.

How is the Indian premium segment hospitality
sector expected to perform over the next 2
years?
Uncertainty in the macro-economic environment will
continue to impact both business and leisure travel in
the current year and the next (2012-13 and 2013-14).
Slowdown in travel in turn would affect room demand
growth for premium segment hotels. During 2012-13
and 2013-14, room supply is expected to grow at 12 per
cent CAGR, while room demand is forecast to grow
only at 6 per cent CAGR. This demand-supply
imbalance will lead to a fall in both occupancy rates
(ORs) and average room rates (ARRs). By 2013-14,
the fall in aggregate ORs is expected to be the steepest
in the decade at 58 per cent as 11,750 premium
segment hotel rooms get added to the existing
inventory of 46,200 rooms across 12 key destinations of
India (Agra, Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Goa,
Hyderabad, Jaipur, Kolkata, Kerala, Mumbai, NCR and
Pune) These destinations together account for 80 per
cent of the premium segment hotel revenues.

Intense competition will cause ARRs to decline at 5 per
cent CAGR to Rs 7,000 in 2013-14 from Rs 7,750 in
2011-12. Consequently, the revenues per available
room (RevPAR) will decline by about 10 per cent CAGR
to Rs 4,050 in 2013-14 over 2011-12.



6

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin

Indian Economy
Economic Overview February 2013



Macroeconomic Indicators - Forecasts



Inflation Industrial production growth Currency
Sectoral inflation Trade Growth
Interest rates
Foreign inflow (US$ bn) Credit growth
High Threat Medium Threat
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12
Mfg
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
Avg Rs per US$
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
Exports Imports
7
8
9
J
a
n
-
1
2
M
a
r
-
1
2
M
a
y
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
S
e
p
-
1
2
N
o
v
-
1
2
J
a
n
-
1
3
1 Yr 10 Yr
0
10
20
30
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
Non-food credit growth
0
10
20
J
a
n
-
1
2
A
p
r
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
O
c
t
-
1
2
J
a
n
-
1
3
Primay
Fuel
Manufacturing
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
WPI CPI-IW
-2
2
6
10
J
a
n
-
1
2
M
a
r
-
1
2
M
a
y
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
S
e
p
-
1
2
N
o
v
-
1
2
J
a
n
-
1
3
FDI+(ECBs/FCCBs)
Net FII flows
2012-13 2013-14 Rationale
y-o-y Growth Agriculture 1.8* 3.5
(%) Industry 3.1* 5.1
Services 6.6* 7.7
Total 5.0* 6.4
Inf lation (%) WPI - Average 7.4 6.5
Lower global crude oil prices, higher agricultural output, and a stronger rupee are
expected to lower inf lation. Forecast f or 2013-14 has been revised downwards as
demand-side pressure on inf lation will be weaker-than-anticipated earlier due to the
lagged impact of slower GDP growth in 2012-13.
Fiscal def icit as a % of GDP 5.4 5.0
Fiscal def icit has been revised downwards as we expect the governments recent
commitment towards f iscal consolidation to continue. Higher GDP growth will lif t the
governments revenue growth while lower crude oil prices and continued pass-
through of these prices will keep the subsidy burden under 2.0 per cent of GDP.
Interest rate
(%)
10- year G-Sec
(year end)
8 7.7-7.8
Expected 50-75 bps cut in repo rate until March-end 2014 to lower the f loor f or 10-
year G-sec yields. High government borrowings and an expected pick-up in credit
growth will limit the downside to 10-year G-sec yields.
Exchange
rate
Re/US $
(year end)
53 51-52
Robust capital inf lows driven by an improved global outlook and domestic policy
ref orms to cover high current account def icit and result in an appreciation of the rupee
to 51-52 by March-end 2014.
Note *CSO Advance Estimates
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, CRISIL Research
A boost in agricultural output (premised on a normal monsoon) and lower interest rates
will revive private consumption. Aided by higher consumption growth and a mild
recovery in exports, industrial and services growth are projected to pick-up in 2013-
14. Forecast has been revised down f rom 6.7 per cent earlier due to weaker-than-
anticipated momentum in industry and services. Fiscal push to growth is also expected
to be lower now due to the governments commitment to f iscal consolidation.


7
Industry Overview

Hospitals

India lags global norms in terms of healthcare
delivery services
India lags several global benchmarks for healthcare
delivery. In terms of both healthcare infrastructure and
manpower, the country faces severe shortage, which is
reflected in the fact that India ranks below several
developing countries including China, Thailand, Sri
Lanka and Vietnam in terms of both beds to population
and physicians to population ratios.

Physicians per 10,000 population

Note: The global median for physicians per 10,000
individuals is 12

Hospital beds per 10,000 population

Note: The global median for hospital beds per 10,000
individuals is 24
Source: WHO statistics, CRISIL Research


Healthcare delivery industry size estimated at
Rs 3 trillion in 2012-13
Based on the health indicators for India released by the
World Health Organisation's (WHO) World Health
Statistics survey, CRISIL Research estimates the size
of the Indian healthcare delivery industry at 4 billion
treatments in 2012-13 in volume terms, and at Rs 3
trillion in value terms. While the in-patient department
(IPD) accounted for 72 per cent of the healthcare
delivery industry, the out-patient department (OPD)
accounted for the balance. CRISIL Research defines
outpatients as patients who are not required to stay at
the hospital overnight. It includes consultancy, day
surgeries and diagnostics and excludes
pharmaceuticals purchased from standalone outlets.

CRISIL Research believes that apart from a change in
age demographics and rising incomes, improvement in
health awareness, a change in the disease profile
(towards lifestyle-related ailments), rising penetration of
health insurance and increasing opportunities from
medical tourism will propel the future demand for
healthcare facilities in India.

(This analysis confines itself to secondary care and
tertiary care hospitals, and all references to the
healthcare delivery industry refer to these segments.
Primary care hospitals and nursing homes are out of
the purview of this analysis.)


Thailand
India
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Global
China
UK
USA
Germany
3
6
6
6
12
14
21
27
35
Physicians per 10,000 population
India
Thailand
Global
Vietnam
China
Sri Lanka
USA
UK
Germany
9
22
24
28
30
31
31
39
83
Hospital Beds per 10,000 population



8

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin
Overall healthcare delivery market: Rs 3,000 billion
(2012-13)

Source: CRISIL Research

Investments of Rs 7 trillion required to reach
the global median of 24 beds per 10,000
persons
During the 2007-08 to 2012-13 period, the total number
of beds increased at a CAGR of 2 per cent to reach 1.2
million. In order to meet the benchmark of 24 beds per
10,000 persons set by the World Health Organisation
for healthcare infrastructure, India would require an
investment of over Rs 7 trillion over the next 5 years.


































































OPD
28%
IPD
72%


9
Industry Overview

Hotels

The average occupancy rates (ORs) of hotels in the
premium segment in India will dip to 61 per cent in
2012-13 from 64 per cent in 2011-12 -- the net impact
of a demand slowdown coinciding with huge supply
additions. While incremental supply in 2012-13 is
expected to be around 4,750 rooms, incremental
demand will be limited to 1,200 rooms. This mismatch
will precipitate a fall in the industrys revenue per
available room (RevPAR). Both large and small
business destinations including NCR, Bengaluru,
Chennai, Kolkata and Ahmedabad will see a sharp dip
in RevPARs. Among leisure destinations, Jaipur and
Kerala will see the fall in RevPARs.

Growth in room demand to be subdued at 4 per
cent in 2012-13
After a year of high growth (21 per cent) in 2010-11,
hotel room demand growth slumped to 7 per cent in
2011-12. In 2012-13, growth in room demand is
estimated to remain subdued at 4 per cent (CAGR)
primarily due to the continuing global economic
downturn, which will impact both business and leisure
travel.
Demand growth is expected to be subdued

E: Estimated;
Source: CRISIL Research



.as domestic passenger traffic and FTAs are
expected to weaken
The shrinking corporate budget for travel expenses,
affected by the sluggish macro-economic climate, and a
drop in domestic leisure travel are expected to hurt
domestic passenger traffic in 2012-13.

Foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India nearly 50-60
per cent of which is from USA and Europe is also
expected to slow down in 2012-13 following
deterioration in the global economic health. During
January-December 2012, y-o-y growth in arrivals was
lower at 6 per cent as compared to the 10 per cent
growth seen in January-December 2011.

Slowdown in demand growth will coincide with
a 10 per cent annual increase in room
inventories

Supply growth will outpace demand growth

E: Estimated;
Source: CRISIL Research

On the other hand, supply will augment at 10 per cent in
2012-13. This will aggravate the prevailing demand-
supply mis-match further. By 2012-13 end, CRISIL
Research expects 4,750 new rooms to be added to the
existing 46,200 rooms across 12 Indian destinations.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2
0
0
7
-
0
8
2
0
0
8
-
0
9
2
0
0
9
-
1
0
2
0
1
0
-
1
1

2
0
1
1
-
1
2

2
0
1
2
-
1
3
E
2
9
,
7
5
0

3
0
,
9
5
0

4
6
,
2
0
0

5
0
,
9
5
0

2011-12 2012-13E
Demand (nos.) Supply (nos.)



10

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin
These destinations collectively account for 80 per cent
of the countrys premium hotel rooms.

that will widen the demand-supply gap
further, causing ORs to dip
Pan-India: Supply will far exceed demand

E: Estimated;
Source: CRISIL Research

Occupancy in both business and leisure
destinations will dip (%)

E: Estimated;
Note: ORs are calculated on total demand and supplies
Source: CRISIL Research

The incremental supply in 2012-13 will be around 4,750
rooms, whereas incremental demand is expected to be
only for around 1,200 rooms. The skew in supplies will
cause the occupancy rates to fall from 64 per cent in
2011-12 to 61 per cent in 2012-13 the lowest since
2004-05.

and ARRs to slide, with RevPAR likely to hit
an 8-year low
As increased room inventory intensifies competition,
average room rentals (ARRs) will dip by about 5 per
cent in 2012-13. The revenue per available room
(RevPAR), which takes into account both ARR and
ORs, will dip by around 11 per cent. At Rs 4,450,
RevPAR in 2012-13 will be the lowest since 2005-06.

Pan India ARR and RevPAR (%)

E: Estimated;
Source: CRISIL Research


















74%
72%
75%
73%
66%
63%
66%
65%
61%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2
0
0
4
-
0
5
2
0
0
5
-
0
6
2
0
0
6
-
0
7
2
0
0
7
-
0
8
2
0
0
8
-
0
9
2
0
0
9
-
1
0
2
0
1
0
-
1
1

2
0
1
1
-
1
2

2
0
1
2
-
1
3
E
Demand (nos.) Supply (nos.)
Occupancy rate (OR)
(Nos.)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2
0
0
4
-
0
5
2
0
0
5
-
0
6
2
0
0
6
-
0
7
2
0
0
7
-
0
8
2
0
0
8
-
0
9
2
0
0
9
-
1
0
2
0
1
0
-
1
1
2
0
1
1
-
1
2

2
0
1
2
-
1
3
E
Business destinations Leisure destinations
3000
6000
9000
12000
2
0
0
4
-
0
5
2
0
0
6
-
0
7
2
0
0
7
-
0
8
2
0
0
8
-
0
9
2
0
0
9
-
1
0
2
0
1
0
-
1
1
2
0
1
1
-
1
2

2
0
1
2
-
1
3
E
Average room rate (ARR) (Rs per day)
RevPAR (Rs per day)


11
Industry Overview

Organised Retail
While food and grocery (F&G) accounts for two-thirds of
overall retail, the share of organised retail is the lowest
among all retail verticals, signifying underlying
opportunity. However, this vertical is also the most
challenging of all retail sector verticals. And building
efficiencies in back-end infrastructure can help retailers
improve margins in this vertical.

Considerable opportunity in domestic food and
grocery retail
The food and grocery (F&G) vertical, Rs 18 trillion
industry in 2012-13, constitutes more than two-thirds of
the overall Indian retail sector. However, the organised
retail market in F&G is only Rs 450 billion, and the
organised retail penetration (ORP) of this vertical is the
lowest among all retail sector verticals at 2.4 per cent.
Taking into account the market size and the ORP,
CRISIL Research believes there is considerable
opportunity for organised retail players in F&G to grow.
In the unorganised space, kirana stores (mom and pop
stores), cart vendors and wet markets dominate.
Organised retailers are present in this vertical through
supermarket and hypermarket formats.

Organised F&G retailing formats




























Huge challenges in F&G retailing in India
Although F&G offers considerable opportunities to
organised retailers on account of low ORP, it is also
one of the most challenging verticals due to the low
gross margins earned on products sold.

Indicative gross margins across categories in India

Perishable nature of products A big concern
Fresh products (fruits and vegetables) drive footfalls for
supermarkets and hypermarkets, and hence are an
essential part of the product mix despite the lower gross
margins earned. On account of their perishable nature,
fruits and vegetables require proper handling and
storage. Further certain FMCG products such as ice
cream, butter, etc also require refrigeration facilities.

Supply chain challenges
Challenges in FMCG supply chain
For FMCGs, the supply chain consists of
manufacturers/suppliers either delivering products to
the store or to the regional distribution centre of the
retailer. A supermarket has 3,000-4,000 stock-keeping
units (SKUs) while hypermarkets have 20,000-25,000
vis-a-vis 700-800 SKUs in the case of kiranas; SKU is
each unique product available for sale at the store.
Also, in India, as tastes and preferences differ between
regions; 15-20 per cent of the products stocked are
Category Gross margin* Category Gross margin*
Fresh 8-10% Apparel 30-35%
Staples 10-12% Footwear 30-35%
FMCG-Food 10-12% Electronics 12-14%
FMCG-Others 10-12% General
merchandise
12-14%
Furnishings 35-40%
* Indicative gross margins of branded products
Note: Gross margins can improve with increasing share of
private labels. Gross margins f or f resh categories and
staples are net of wastages.
Source: CRISIL Research
Food & grocery Other categories
Format
Store
area
( sq ft)
Fresh 5-10% Fresh 3-5%
FMCG- f ood 20-30% FMCG-f ood 15-20%
FMCG-others 20-30% FMCG-others 15-20%
Staples 20-30% Staples 10-15%
General
merchandise
5-10% Apparel 10-15%
Others 20-40%
Note: Fresh - Perishables like f ruits, vegetables, etc; FMCG f ood
- Processed f ood like waf ers, juices, etc; FMCG staples - Grains
like rice, pulses, etc; FMCG others - Home and personal care
products like soaps, detergents, etc; General merchandise -
Plastic items, etc.
Source: CRISIL Research
Hypermarket Supermarket
2,000-10,000 50,000-150,000
Typical
product
mix



12

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin
local in nature. As a result, F&G retailers have to deal
with a large number of FMCG product suppliers. This
makes managing inventory and supply chain more
difficult than other verticals. As most retailers in India do
not have a fully integrated back-end infrastructure,
receiving goods is also a challenge with retailers having
to manage multiple deliveries at the store from both
large and small suppliers. Indian retailers also have
lower fill rates of 60-67 per cent for FMCG products as
compared to 90-95 per cent in the US and Europe on
account of delays in shipments; fill rate is the availability
of inventory at the store to meet customer demand.
While small local suppliers are essential for adding local
products, dealing with them is challenging as they may
not have IT systems integrated with the retailer.

Challenges in fruits and vegetables supply chain
Managing the fruits and vegetables (F&V) supply chain
is demanding on account of inadequate storage and
transportation facilities in India. Direct sourcing from
farms is done only by a few large retailers, and even
they source only 30-40 per cent of their F&V
requirements directly. The rest is procured from
wholesale APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing
Committee) markets. Further, retailers are required to
route the sourced F&V through APMC yards and pay all
taxes and commissions, thereby increasing the time
taken for transportation. Poor road conditions in India
result in increased transportation time, which leads to
higher wastage for perishables Lack of cold chains
(cold storages and refrigerated transportation) is
another problem plaguing the Indian market. While 180
million metric tonnes of F&V (excluding potato) was
produced in India in 2011-12, cold storage facility was
available for less than 3 per cent of this production.

Back-end efficiencies can improve gross
margins
As compared to other verticals, the back-end
infrastructure for F&G retail in India is relatively
underdeveloped. For F&G, the back-end constitutes
logistics (transportation), handling, cold-chain for
storage, contract farming, and F&V sorting, grading and
collection centres, as well as processing and packaging
centres. Investments in back-end infrastructure can
bring about efficiencies that can help reduce wastage
and improve gross margins.

Investments in back-end infrastructure to
result in better gross margins
According to CRISIL Research, a retailer can improve
the overall gross margins for the F&G category by
around 300 bps by making additional investments in
back-end infrastructure. These investments would have
to be made in cold chains, automation of warehouses
and other technologies. The average gross margins of
Indian F&G supermarkets (at the store level) are around
13 per cent. The fresh category can benefit the most
with a superior supply chain. In this category, CRISIL
Research expects gross margin improvements of 600
bps from lower wastage and better quality of products.
Also, a superior supply chain will help retailers offer a
wider range of F&V, including exotic varieties, which will
command higher gross margins. Similarly, gross margin
improvements in other categories like staples and
FMCG can be achieved by premiumisation of the
product mix, introducing private labels and value-added
products. Some of these product improvements are
already being explored by Indian retailers.

Back-end infrastructure investments can
improve IRRs by 250-300 bps
The typical internal rate of return (IRR) earned by an
F&G retailer in India at the company level is 10-11 per
cent currently. CRISIL Research believes that IRRs for
an F&G retailer can improve by 250-300 bps to 14-15
per cent with higher investments in backend
infrastructure. Also, investing in back-end infrastructure
will enable retailers to expand faster in the front-end
and thereby further improve IRRs.


13
Industry Overview

Educational services

Structure of K-12 education in India
The K-12 education structure in India can be classified
both on the basis of management and by the various
stages of education. On the basis of their management,
institutes imparting K-12 education can be grouped into
3 categories: those that are managed either by the
government, or the private sector with or without
financial aid from the government. Based on the stage
of education, the education structure is classified into
Primary (class I-V), Upper primary (VI-VIII) and
Secondary (IX-XII).

K-12 education is imparted through institutions offering
schooling from kindergarten to class XII. These schools
form the largest chunk of the educational services
industry in India. Schools in this sector can be
categorised as follows:

Classification of K-12 schools in India

Source: CRISIL Research



In India, the education sector is included under the
Concurrent List. Hence, legislative powers governing
the sector are distributed between the centre and the
state. Educational institutions in India have to be run as
not-for-profit entities - they are run either as trusts,
societies, or companies under Section 25 of the Indian
Companies Act. As a result, the surplus funds
generated by the educational institutions cannot be
withdrawn; instead, they have to be utilised for the
development of the institution(s). However, in recent
years, such trusts have been permitted to transfer the
surplus funds generated by one institution to a sister
concern under the umbrella of the same trust.

Overview of K-12 education in India
While demographic data suggests that there should be
352 million children enrolled in schools, government
data indicates enrollment of only 243 million children in
2009-10. Despite having the world's largest K-12
population, India has a low enrollment rate at the school
level. At present there are only 1.45 million schools
offering K-12 education in India, of which 1.27 million
schools offer elementary education (up to standard
VIII). Of the 1.27 million elementary schools,
government schools account for nearly 82 per cent.

Number and share of public institutions (2009-10)

Source: CRISIL Research
Government
Private Aided
(Government
funded but privately
managed)
Private Unaided
K-12
Education
Primary
(Class I-V)
Upper Primary
(Class VI-VIII)
Secondary (Class
IX-XII)
By
Management
By Level of
Education
0.07 million
1.05 million
Secondary and
higher secondary
(37%)
(Elementary)
(82%)



14

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin
Rise in enrollment of K-12 students in private
institutions
The share of private K-12 institutions in total
educational institutions has remained largely stable in
2011-12 over 2007-08. However, the share of private
institutions in total enrollments has grown faster
between 2007-08 and 2011-12. CRISIL Research
expects that the importance of private sector in K-12
segment would increase with their share in total
enrollments augmenting to 48 per cent in 2016-17 from
42 per cent in 2011-12.

Importance of private sector in K-12 education on
the rise

Source: CRISIL Research

Growing preference for private institutions
Rising urbanisation, increasing ability and willingness to
spend on quality education have resulted in a shift in
preference from government schools to private ones.
Also, slow-paced capacity creation in government
schools has led to higher enrollments in private
institutions. The charts below establish the trend in
rising preference for private schools not only in urban
areas but also rural pockets.




Rapid growth in private institutions (2008-09
2010- 11)

Source: DISE, CRISIL Research

School profitability could be impacted by RTE
implementation
The Right to Education (RTE) Act makes education a
fundamental right of every child between the ages 6
and 14. It requires all private - aided and unaided -
schools to reserve 25 per cent of the available seats for
children from the 'Economically Weaker Sections'
(EWS) of the society. The other key features of the act
are listed below:
No capitation fees to be charged for admission
No denial of admission
The school would be entitled for reimbursement of
the expenditure it incurs to the extent of
expenditure incurred per child in other
government-run schools, or the actual amount
charged from the child , whichever is lower.

The Right to Education Act would not apply to unaided
minority schools.


75%
25%
63%
37%
75%
25%
58%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Public Private Public Private
Institutions Enrollment
2008 2012
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Rural
government
Urban
government
Rural private Urban
private
Growth in enrolments per school
Growth in number of schools
Growth in enrolments


15













Ashiana Housing Ltd (Ashiana) continues to be a prominent real estate player.
Focus on quality projects at a reasonable price and rack record of timely
completion of projects have strengthened its brand equity. It has a strong
pipeline of projects (9.6 mn sq ft) but most of these projects are awaiting land
conversion approvals. As a result, bookings and construction are delayed.
More-than-anticipated delay in approvals could affect Ashianas future
prospects. However, with the new launches expected by FY13-end, we expect
bookings to revive in FY14. We maintain our fundamental grade of 4/5.
Positive on long-term prospects
Limited land bank, focus on residential projects and presence in tier II/III cities
have resulted in efficient capital management and a strong balance sheet. We
remain positive on Ashianas long-term prospects given its emphasis on
quality offerings at a reasonable price and track record of timely completion of
products. Owing to this, Ashiana enjoys strong brand equity, reflected in
premium pricing of 5-10% compared to competition.
Strong pipeline but approvals are a hurdle; shift in capital allocation
strategy a positive
Ashiana has a pipeline of 9.6 mn sq ft of projects but most of them are
awaiting land conversion approvals. Nearly 7.8 mn sq ft of projects are in
Rajasthan, where the land conversion process has been at a standstill for the
past one year. Due to approval hurdles, it has devised a new capital allocation
strategy where payments for the land are subject to receipt of approvals.
Hence, it will have limited liability in case of further delays in approvals.
Bookings and construction to remain under pressure in FY13, to pick
up in FY14
Given the approval hurdles, there is limited visibility on new project launches in
H2FY13. As a result, bookings and construction are likely to remain under
pressure. We expect bookings of 0.8 mn sq ft in H2FY13, marginally above
H1FY13 levels, and construction of 1.1 mn sq ft in FY13 compared to 1.5 mn
sq ft in FY12. With the likely approval of building plans for 1.1 mn sq ft project
in Jaipur (Gulmohar Gardens), 0.42 mn sq ft in Jamshedpur (Anantara) and
0.4 mn sq ft in Neemrana in H2FY13, we expect bookings to pick up in FY14.
Gearing up for the next level of growth
Construction picked up from 0.5 mn sq ft in FY07 to 1.5 mn sq ft in FY12.
Bookings also jumped to 1.8 mn sq ft from 0.4 mn sq ft during the same
period. We believe Ashianas business model is scalable and the management
is taking the steps in the right direction. With a cash balance of 1,050 mn, it is
comfortably placed to acquire another 50-60 acres of land; the company plans
to expand in southern and western India. It is also ramping up the second line
of management to prepare for the next level of growth.
Shift in accounting methodology to impact P&L; cash flows remain
strong
Due to a change in the accounting methodology to possession based from
percentage completion, revenues and PAT are expected to decline over the
next two years but will pickup in FY15. Operating cash flows are expected at
0.7 bn p.a. in the next three years.
Valuations current market price has upside
We continue to use the net asset value method to value Ashiana. We have
rolled forward our projections to FY15. Factoring in cash flows from three new
projects Gulmohar Gardens (Jaipur), Anantara (Jamshedpur) and Neemrana
- we raise our fair value to 256 per share from 205. At the current market
price, the valuation grade is 4/5.

KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED)
( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Operating income 1,396 2,417 1,399 1,478 3,153
EBITDA 441 826 542 558 1,190
Adj Net income 429 696 432 478 989
Adj EPS- 23.1 37.4 23.2 25.7 53.2
EPS growth (%) 15.0 62.0 (37.8) 10.6 106.8
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.5
RoCE (%) 26.9 36.7 18.6 17.2 31.6
RoE (%) 28.2 33.5 16.7 15.9 26.9
PE (x) 9.3 5.7 9.2 8.3 4.0
P/BV (x) 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 4.1 5.0 3.6 1.1
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
CFV matrix



Shareholding pattern


Performance vis--vis market


1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
Valuation Grade
F
u
n
d
a
m
e
n
t
a
l

G
r
a
d
e
Poor
Fundamentals
Excellent
Fundamentals
S
t
r
o
n
g
D
o
w
n
s
i
d
e
S
t
r
o
n
g
U
p
s
i
d
e
KEY STOCK STATISTICS
NIFTY/SENSEX 5880/19317
NSE/BSE ticker ASHIANA/ASHIHOU
ace value ( per share) 10
hares outstanding (mn) 18.6
Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 3,987/73
nterprise value ( mn) 2,972/57
2-week range () (H/L) 3,107/128
eta 1.4
ree float (%) 33.10%
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 10,139
Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 1.9
66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.9%
0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
0.6%
33.7% 33.5% 33.3% 32.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
Promoter FII Others
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
Ashiana 29% 30% 25% 53%
NIFTY 4% 5% 16% 23%
Returns
Independent Equity Research Report
Ashiana Housing Ltd
December 17, 2012



16

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin














































Customised Research Services Real Estate
Coverage

Note: Real(i)Next was a one ti me report published in June 2011.


Key Offerings

Real estate: Residential, Commercial, Malls & Multiplexes, IT/SEZs etc
Feasibility study/ Land development mix
Market potential of a city and Area-wise analysis
Valuation

Education: Play schools, K-12, Coaching Institutes, Engineering Institutes, Management Institutes, etc
Market analysis, Industry sizing and Feasibility Study
Competitive analysis
Franchisee evaluation
Valuation

Healthcare: Speciality, Super-speciality, Multi-speciality, and allied segments like diagnostic centres,
standalone clinics, etc.
Market analysis, Industry sizing and Feasibility Study
Competitor analysis/Benchmarking
Valuation
Studies on allied services like health insurance, medical colleges, pharmacies and diagnostic centres

Hospitality: Premium, budget hotels, Service apartments, Quick-service restaurants, coffee shops, etc.
Market analysis and Feasibility study
Valuations
Management company/Franchisee evaluation
Ahmedabad Bhopal
Bengaluru Bhubaneswar
Chandigarh Coimbatore
Chennai Indore
Hyderabad Jaipur
Kochi Lucknow
Kolkata Nagpur
Mumbai Surat
NCR Vadodara
Pune Visakhapatnam
Organised retail
Educational Services
Hospitals
Hotels
City Real(i)ty Real(i)ty Next
Cities covered: Cities covered:


17















































Media Coverage





18

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin






























NOTES


19















NOTES
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W-101, Sunrise Chambers
22, Ulsoor Road
Bengaluru - 560 042, India
Phone: +91 80 2558 0899
+91 80 2559 4802
Fax: +91 80 2559 4801
Chennai
Thapar House,
43/44, Montieth Road, Egmore
Chennai - 600 008, India
Phone: +91 44 2854 6205/06
+91 44 2854 6093
91 44 2854 7531 Fax: +
Hyderabad
rd
3 Floor, Uma Chambers
Plot No. 9&10, Nagarjuna Hills
(Near Punjagutta Cross Road)
Hyderabad - 500 482, India
Phone: +91 40 2335 8103/05
Fax: +91 40 2335 7507
Kolkata
th
Horizon, Block 'B', 4 Floor
57 Chowringhee Road
Kolkata - 700 071, India
Phone: +91 33 2289 1949/50
Fax: +91 33 2283 0597
New Delhi
The Mira, G-1
st
1 Floor, Plot No. 1 & 2
Ishwar Nagar, Mathura Road
New Delhi - 110 065, India
Phone: +91 11 4250 5100
+91 11 2693 0117/121
Fax: +91 11 2684 2212
Pune
1187/17, Ghole Road
Shivaji Nagar
Pune - 411 005, India
Phone: +91 20 2553 9064/67
Fax: +91 20 4018 1930
Contact us
Siddharth Arora
Phone: +91 22 3342 4133 | Mobile: +91 993 08 85274
E-mail: siddharth.arora@crisil.com
Binaifer Jehani
Phone: +91 22 3342 4091 | Mobile: +91 8879125243
E-mail: binaifer.jehani@crisil.com
CRISIL Limited
CRISIL House, Central Avenue
Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai - 400 076. India
Phone: +91 22 3342 3000 | Fax: +91 22 3342 8088
www.crisil.com