27

The event E can materialize in the following mutually exclusive

ways:
(i) Person A is selected and democratization is introduced
ie A
1
I E happens
(ii) Person B is selected and democratization is introduced
ieA
2
I E happens
(iii) Person C is selected and democratization is introduced
ie A
3
I E happens
Thus E = (A
1
I E) U (A
2
I E) U(A
3
I E) , where these sets are
disjoint
Hence by addition rule of probability we have
P(E) = P(A
1
I E) + P(A
2
I E) + P(A
3
I E)
= P(A
1
) P(E/A
1
) + P(A
2
) P(E/A
2
) + P(A
3
) P(E/A
3
)
=
9
4
0.3 +
9
2
0.5 +
9
3
0.8
=
90
46
=
45
23
Example 20:
In a bolt factory machines A
1,
A
2
, A
3
manufacture
respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total output. Of these 5, 4,
and 2 percent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from
the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability
that it was manufactured by machine A
2
?
Solution:
P(A
1
) = P( that the machine A
1
manufacture the bolts) = 25%
= 0.25
Similarly P(A
2
) = 35% = 0.35 and
P(A
3
) = 40% = 0.40
Let B be the event that the drawn bolt is defective.
P(B/ A
1
) = P (that the defective bolt from the machine A
1
)
= 5 % = 0.05
Similarly, P(B/ A
2
) = 4% = 0.04
And P(B/ A
3
) = 2% = 0.02
28
We have to find P(A
2
/ B).
Hence by Bayes theorem, we get
P(A
2
/ B).=
) A / B ( P ) A ( P ) A / B ( P ) A ( P ) A / B ( P ) A ( P
) A / B ( P ) A ( P
3 3 2 2 1 1
2 2
+ +
=
) 02 . 0 )( 4 . 0 ( ) 04 . 0 )( 35 . 0 ( ) 05 . 0 )( 25 . 0 (
) 04 . 0 )( 35 . 0 (
+ +
=
28
69
= 0.4058
Example 21:
A company has two plants to manufacture motorbikes.
Plant I manufactures 80 percent of motor bikes, and plant II
manufactures 20 percent. At Plant I 85 out of 100 motorbikes are
rated standard quality or better.
At plant II only 65 out of 100 motorbikes are rated standard quality
or better.
(i) What is the probability that the motorbike, selected at
random came from plant I. if it is known that the motorbike is
of standard quality?
(ii) What is the probability that the motorbike came from plant II
if it is known that the motor bike is of standard quality?
Solution:
Let A
1
be the event of drawing a motorbike produced by plant I.
A
2
be the event of drawing a motorbike produced by plant II.
B be the event of drawing a standard quality motorbike produced
by plant I or plant II.
Then from the first information, P(A
1
) = 0.80, P(A
2
) = 0.20
From the additional information
P(B/A
1
) = 0.85
P(B/A
2
) = 0.65
The required values are computed in the following table.
The final answer is shown in last column of the table.