Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Whatistheproposedlengthof
theproject?
designandimplementationamong
theproject?
theimplementationofadaptations?
adaptedfromotherstudiesto
whatcost?
adapting?
USAIDPROECT/PROGRAM
PARAMETERS
V&ACONTENT CONTEXTFORADAPTATIONS
Isthereexperiencewith
adaptationsinthecountry/region?
Istheresupportforadaptation
decision-makersandstakeholders?
Whatistheproposedbudgetof Havepreliminaryadaptation
policiesandstrategiesalreadybeen
identified?
Arethereknownlegal,political,
institutional,orfinancialbarriersto
Canmodels,toolsorpracticesbe
supportthevulnerabilityand
adaptationassessments?Andat
Aretherelocalresourcesavailable
tosustainadaptationbeyondthe
lifeoftheUSAIDproject?
Istherelikelytobeacosttonot
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 13
COMPILE ADAPTATIONS Preparatoryactivities:
Indevelopingalistofadaptationoptions,anumber
Reviewandextractinformationonclimate
ofapproachesandinformationsourcesmightbe
impactsandprojectvulnerabilitiesdevelopedin
considered,dependingonresourcesandavailabilityof
Step1;
GCCexpertsforconsultation.Asuggestedprocess
forcompilingalistofadaptationsisdividedinto Reviewpreviousandcurrentprogramsand
preparatoryandparticipatoryactivities.
projectsconductedbyUSAIDandotherdonors
todetermineifadaptationswereidentified,
assessed,orimplemented;
EXHIBIT 8 - PARTICIPATORY PROCESS BEST PRACTICES
PARTICIPANTS
Determinethetypesofstakeholderswhoshouldbecomeinvolvedintheanalysis,reviewanddecision-makingprocess.
Forexample,foranagriculturalproject,stakeholdersmightincludelocalfarmers,otherparticipantsinthevaluechain,
governmentministriesandextensionservices.Forawaterproject,stakeholdersmightincludemunicipalgovernment
officialsandcustomers. Thelocalstakeholderschosenshouldhaveakeeninterestintheprojectunderconsideration
andhowitwillimpacttheirlivelihoods.
Determinethetypesofnationalandinternationalexpertswhohavevaluableexpertiseintheprojectareaandin
assessingclimateimpactsandadaptations. Thesecouldincludepeoplefromlocaluniversitiesandagriculturalcolleges,
localandfederalgovernmentalagencies,internationalresearchorganizationsanduniversities,etc.
DetermineiftheV&Aworkwillbecoordinatedwithotherdonors thiscouldprovideanopportunitytoleverage
resourcesandincreasethepotentialimpactoftheproject.
DIALOGUE
Organizestakeholderdiscussionsonimpactsandadaptations willthesebefacilitatedbyUSAIDsimplementing
partner;byalocaleducationalorresearchinstitutionorNGO;orbythegovernment?
Understandthepreferredmethodsformakingdecisionsonadaptationinthepartnercountry eachcountrywillhave
establishedproceduresformakingdecisions,inpartdependingonthetype(s)ofadaptationtobeconsidered.
Proceduresforintroducingadaptationpoliciesatthenationallevelcanbeexpectedtodifferfromlocaladaptations.
COMMUNICATIONS
Establishcommunicationprotocolswithimplementingpartnersandcounterpartscoveringthedisseminationof
informationincludingmechanisms(Websites,pressreleasestothemedia,reports,publicmeetings,workshops,etc.)and
assignmentofroles.
EXHIBIT 9 - IDENTIFYING ADAPTATIONS: V&A PILOT STUDY APPROACHES
La Ceiba, Honduras
Municipal authorities asked the project team to
identify, analyze, and recommend adaptation
options in the areas of coastal development,
urban drainage, and upstream land management.
The climate impact analysis and the assessment of
adaptation options were combined.
Lower Songkram River Basin,Thailand
The project team developed climate scenarios
and conducted inundation impact analysis in
advance of stakeholder meetings. Local
stakeholders elaborated and assessed adaptations
at three implementation levels: farmer/fisher,
community, and government. Local
representatives of National Ministries also
selected adaptations.
Zignasso, Mali
Adaptations were identified by participants in the
first Stakeholder Workshop. Stakeholders
identified adaptations involving earlier planting,
planting with early maturing varieties, training in
soil management, and infrastructure to improve
irrigation.
Polokwane, South Africa
Adaptations were identified by participants in the
first Stakeholder Workshop. They recommended
adaptations in these categories: 1) Six in demand
management; 2) Five in technical water resources
management; and 3) Seven in policy.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 14
Solicitadvicefromand/orreviewrecentreports
anddocumentspreparedbyexpertsinclimate
change,climateadaptationandenvironmental
scienceandpolicythatwillhaveanintimate
knowledgeofthescientificunderpinningsofthe
problemandwilllikelyprovidecredible
suggestionsbasedonsoundscience;
Reviewcountrystrategiesandpoliciesthatpertain
toadaptations.
Participatoryactivities:
Holdmeetingswithdecision-makersand
stakeholderstodiscussclimateimpactsand
adaptationoptions.Thesemayinvolveworkshops,
smallerfocusgroupinterviewsorfieldinterviews.
USAIDanditsimplementingpartnersshouldbe
preparedtoprovideinformationabouttheproject
orprogramandsharecurrentanalysisonthe
potentialimpactsofclimatechangeandvariability.
Consultwithnationalandinternationalexpertson
climatechangeadaptations.Thelistofadaptations
developedfromstakeholdermeetingsshouldbe
compiledandsharedwithexpertstoobtaintheir
helpinreviewingstakeholderadaptationsandto
identifygapsinthelist.Expertsmayalsobeable
toshareinformationonadaptationassessments
conductedinothercountriesorregionsthatcould
begermanetoStep3.
HOLD STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS TO
DISCUSS AND FINALIZE THE
ADAPTATIONS LIST
Oncethelistofadaptationoptionshasbeencompiled
andsubjectedtosomepreliminaryanalysisand
screening,asecondsetofmeetingsisrecommendedto
facilitatediscussionsamongstakeholderstofinalizethe
listofadaptationoptions.Itislikelythattheinitiallist
ofoptionswillbeexcessivelylongandpossibly
difficulttoanalyzeinStep3.Meetingswith
stakeholdersanddecision-makerscanbeusefulin
establishingaprocessforassessingthecurrentlistof
optionsandreducingthenumberofoptions.Ineffect,
theprocessofshorteningthelistfunctionsasapre-
assessmentoftheadaptationoptionsandwillhelpto
identifycandidatecriteriathatcanbeappliedinthe
Step3analysis.Theprocessforfinalizingthe
adaptationlistmightinclude:
Presentthefullslateofadaptationoptionsto
stakeholders.
Establishaprocessandcriteriaforscreening
adaptationoptions.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Assiststakeholdersindevelopinginformationon
optionstoconductthescreeningexercise.
Groupoptionsbyactivitytypeandcharacterize
themassubstitutes(either/or),complementsto
otheradaptationoptions,orbundleinto
adaptationstrategies(seeboxbelow).
Eliminateoptionsthatarenottechnicallyor
technologicallyfeasibletoimplementinthe
projectorprogramatthepresenttime.
Facilitateaselectionprocesstoallowdecision-
makersandstakeholderstofinalizetheadaptations
list.
Exhibit10onthenextpagesummarizestherangeof
adaptationoptionsthatwereidentifiedinthefour
V&Apilotstudies.
STEP 3: CONDUCT ANALYSIS
ThepurposeofthisstepisforUSAID,its
implementingpartners,stakeholdersandexpertsto
evaluateeachoftheadaptationoptionsincludedon
thefinallistinStep2.Optionsshouldbeevaluated
fortheireffectivenessatbuildingresiliencetoclimatic
changesidentifiedinStep1.Thisanalysisalsomust
giveconsiderationtotheprojectstimeframeand
budgetaswellastotheanalyticalrequirementsfor
implementingdifferentadaptationoptions.
DEFINE BASELINE OF PERFORMANCE
Theonlyreasontomodifyprojectplansistoimprove
projectperformance.Therefore,itisusefultoassess
howtheoriginalprojectisexpectedtoperformunder
currentandprojectedconditions,andcomparethat
performancewiththeoptionsidentifiedinStep2.
Forexample,inourprojectinPolokwane,South
Africa,thewaterutilitywasconsideringconstructinga
damandreservoirtoaugmentwatersupplies.
However,someoftheclimatechangeprojections
suggestedthatrainfallwilldeclineinthefuture,
limitingtheusefulnessofadam. Stakeholders
suggestedconsideringotheroptions,suchasdemand
sidemanagement,untilthereisbetterevidencethat
futurerainfallwillbeadequatetofillareservoir.
Considerationsindevelopingthisperformance
baselineinclude:
Howwouldtheoriginalprojectperformunder
currentorexpectedconditions?Isitwell-suited,
givenstakeholderexperiencewiththelocal
climate?
15
Howwouldthemodified(climate-adapted) theclimateprojectionsdevelopedinStep1to
projectoptionsperformundercurrentorexpected identifyfutureconditions.)
conditions. Isitatleastaswell-suitedtolocal
conditions?
Howwouldthemodifiedoptionsperformunder
expectedfutureconditions?
Howwouldtheoriginalprojectperformunder
expectedfutureconditions?(Again,drawfrom
EXHIBIT 10 - ADAPTATION OPTIONS IDENTIFIED FOR THE V&A PILOT STUDIES
HONDURAS MALI SOUTHAFRICA THAILAND
Constructionofgroins, Constructionofwater Recycling urban Waterresource
Infrastructure
seawalls,breakwaters,
dams,drainagesystems
Sandpumping,river
dredging,liningofriver
channel
Improveddesignand
gate
Developmentoffood
storagefacilities
Installrocklinesto
capturerunoff
Reuse mining
Builddam
Expandwellfields
development
Constructionofweirs
higherlevees
Installationof
collectors,stormgates
andpumps
Improveenvironmental
education
Buildstaffcapacityand
infrastructureto
implementflood
warningsystem
Buildknowledgeand
capacitytounderstand
agriculturalproduction
stressors
Buildcapacityin
weatherforecasting
Drought/risk
management
Hydro-climatic
network/monitoring
Buildknowledgeand
capacityinadaptation
Encourage
conservation
Strengthencommodity
valuechainsandfind
CapacityBuilding
Designandimplement
zoningregulationsand
buildingcodes
Limitdeforestation
Adoptionoflocal
policyandordinance
initiatives
Facilitateaccessto
credit
Intersectoral
reallocation
Reallocationof
reservoiryield
Waterconservation
anddemand
management(including
meteringandprice
structure)
newmarkets
Compensationfor
flooddamages
Regulationstocontrol
unsustainablefishery
practice
Developresource
managementplansat
thecommunitylevel
Policy
Constructionofhouses Incorporationofcrop
Conjunctiveuse
Rainwaterharvesting Shifttoflood-tolerant
onstilts residuesintosoiland cropsandcrop
Incorporationofrisk
ridgetillage varieties
assessmentand Useofshort-rotation Planteucalyptusand
mitigationinformation andheattolerantrice pararubbertrees
NewPractices
intomicro-watershed
managementplans
andmaize
Intercroppingandcrop
rotation(toaddress
pests)
Developaquaculture
industry
Increaselivestock
rearinginupperlands
Seedpriming(e.g.,
soaking)priorto
planting
Plantingofagroforestry
species
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 16
CREATE ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT EXHIBIT 11 - CRITERIA FOR ANALYZING
MATRIX
ADAPTATIONS
Avarietyoffactorsorcriteriacanbeusedinthe
analysis.Anillustrativelistoffactorsisprovidedbelow
innoparticularorderofimportance.Consultations
withdecision-makersandstakeholderswillbeuseful
inselectingthefinalsetoffactorsandassigning
weightorlevelofimportancetoeachofthem:
Costcosttoimplementadaptationoptions;cost
ofnotmodifyingtheproject
Effectivenesseffectivenessofadaptationoptions
asasolutiontoproblemsarisingfromclimate
variabilityandclimatechange(benefits,damages
mitigated,costsavoided,andlivessavedas
differentspecificationsofeffectiveness)
PILOT
STUDY
E
f
f
e
c
t
v
e
n
e
s
s
C
o
s
t
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e
a
s
b
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c
a
/
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t
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r
a
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e
a
s
b
t
y
A
s
s
s
t
a
n
c
e
R
e
q
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r
e
m
e
n
t
s
A
d
e
q
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a
c
y
f
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r
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r
r
e
n
t
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m
a
t
e
S
p
e
e
d
o
f
I
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p
e
m
e
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o
n
C
o
n
s
s
t
e
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c
y
w
t
h
S
t
a
t
e
P
o
c
y
La Ceiba,
Honduras
Zignasso,
Mali
Polokwane,
South Africa
Songkram
River,
Thailand
Inconductingtheassessmentofadaptations,the
Easeofimplementationincludesissuessuchas
followingissuesshouldbegivenconsideration:
barrierstoimplementationandtheneedtoadjust
otherpoliciestoaccommodatetheadaptation Foreachproposedadaptationtobeassessed,each
option factorshouldbeevaluatedonapre-determined
scalethatisappropriateforthefactor.For
AcceptabilitytolocalstakeholdersinStep2all
example,factorssuchascost,stakeholdersupport,
adaptationswouldhavebeenidentifiedasfeasible
andexpertsendorsementcanberatedfortheir
butnotallwillbeequallyattractivetoall
favorabilityaslow(1),medium(2),high(3)or
stakeholdersforpolitical,economic,social,or
veryhigh(4).Forfactorssuchaseffectiveness,a
culturalreasons
moredetailedassessmentscalemayberequired.
AcceptabilitytoUSAIDanyoptionsthat
USAIDisunwillingtosupportshouldbe
identifiedsoitiscleartostakeholdersthatthose
optionswillnotbepursuedinthiscontext
Thesystemforratingfactorsshouldbeagreed
uponinadvancewithdecision-makersand
stakeholders.
Evenifapartnerrequirestheassessmenttobe
Endorsementbyexpertsinsomecountries,
organizedinaparticularformatpursuantto
decision-makerswillpartlybasetheirselectionon
agencyproceduresorregulations,itmightbe
consistencyofproposedadaptationoptionswith
beneficialalsotoorganizetheresultsofthe
internationalbestpractices
adaptationanalysisinmatrixformtofacilitate
comparisonandselectionofadaptations.This
Timeframeforimplementingtheadaptation approachisbeneficialinthatitiseffectivewithout
beingoverlycomplexorcostly.
Institutionalcapacityhowmuchadditional
capacitybuildingandknowledgetransferis GHGemissionimplicationsofthepotential
requiredfortheadaptationoptiontobe adaptationsshouldbeconsidered.Inmanycases,
implemented thiswillnotbeanissue,butcareshouldbetaken
toensurethatemissionsarenotincreasedbythe
Adequacyforcurrentclimatearetherenegative
adaptationsothatclimatechangeisnot
consequencesoftheadaptationoptioninthe
exacerbatedbytheactivity.(Forexample,
currentclimate?Someadaptationsmaybe
buildingareservoircouldincreasecarbon
targetedatthefutureclimatebutmayhavecosts
emissionsasfloodedtreesdecayandrelease
andconsequencesunderthecurrentclimate
carbon. However,USAIDislessandlessinvolved
Sizeofbeneficiariesgroupadaptationsthat
inthistypeofinfrastructureproject.)
providesmallbenefitstolargenumbersofpeople
TheoutputofStep3wouldbeacompletedmatrix
willoftenbefavoredoverthosethatprovidelarger
and/orassessmentresultsinaformspecifiedby
benefits,buttofewerpeople
Exhibit11summarizesthemaincriteriathatwere
usedinthefourV&Apilotstudiestoevaluate
adaptations.
decision-makers.Anillustrationofanassessment
matrixfromthePolokwane,SouthAfricapilotstudy
isprovidedinExhibit12onthenextpage.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 17
EXHIBIT 12 - MATRIX FOR EVALUATING ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN
POLOKWANE, SOUTH AFRICA
IBI
IBI
management existing
High High High High
High High Medium
Recycling urban Medium High High Medium High
Reuse mining High High High Medium
Reallocation of dam yield Medium High High Medium High
High High Medium
High High High
High High High Medium
High High High
ADAPTIONOPTION EFFECTIVENESS COST
TECHNICAL
FEAS LITY
SOCIALAND
CULTURAL
FEAS LITY
SPEED
Water conservation and demand Low
Level of service/future Low Low
Low
Conjunctive use Low Low
Expand well fields Low Low
Build new dam Low
Rainwater harvest Low Low
STEP 4: SELECT COURSE OF
ACTION
ThepurposeofthisstepistousetheresultsfromStep
3toselectoneormoreadaptationstobe
implementedwithassistancefromtheprojector
program.Thisstepisveryimportantintermsof
determiningtheultimatesuccessoftheV&Aelements
intheprojectorprogram.Itisalsothestepinthe
approachwherelocalownershipofboththeprocess
anddecisionisessentialandclosecoordination
betweenUSAID,itsimplementingpartners,and
decision-makerswillbeneeded.Thiscouldinvolve
organizingvenuesfordiscussion,facilitatingthose
discussions,andgatheringinformationtoaddressgaps
intheanalysisidentifiedinthedeliberationon
adaptationoptions.ConsistentwithUSAIDs
commitmenttotransparencyandaccountability,the
implementingpartnershouldmakeanefforttoensure
thereisbuy-intothedecision-makingprocessin
governmentandthatallimportantparties,including
keystakeholders,arerepresentedinthedecision-
makingprocess.Decision-makersshouldbe
encouragedtoranktherelativeimportanceof
selectionfactorstopromotetransparencyinthefinal
selection. Itisimportanttorecognizethattheranking
offactorsmustbeinthecontextofthecountrys
economic,environmental,andsocialgoalsnotin
termsofthesuccessoftheprojectorprogram.Partly
thisreflectsthefactthatprojectshavelimited
timeframesandresourcesthatmightonlyallow
supportforasubsetofadaptationsunder
consideration.
Theprocessofselectingacourseofactionis
summarizedforthreeofthefourV&Apilotstudiesin
Exhibit13onthenextpage.ForLaCeiba,Honduras,
Steps4and5aredescribedindetailinExhibit14.
STEP 5: IMPLEMENT
ADAPTATIONS
Onceadaptationoptionsareselected,thenextstepis
implementation.Iftheoptionswereselectedto
modifyaprojectthatwasalreadybeingplanned,
implementationoftheoptionswillbecomeapartof
theimplementationofthatparentproject.The
implementationplanwilltypicallyincludethe
followingcomponents:betterdefinitionofthespecific
tasks,schedule,androlesofimplementingpartners,
decision-makers,andstakeholders;and,resource
requirements.Ifyouhavebeenworkingwithan
implementer(i.e.,undercontractorcooperative
agreement),theyshouldbeinvolvedinrevisingthe
implementationplan. Inaddition,theimplementers
workplanmayhavetoberevisedtoreflectneedsto
buildcapacity,financeimplementationinterventions,
orcarryoutotheractivitiesmutuallyagreedby
assistancepartnersandUSAID.
Theimplementationplantypicallywillincludethe
followingcomponents:
Strategythatdescribesactionsandatimelinefor
formalizingtheadaptationoptions,initiating
activities,designinginvestments,andcoordinating
activitieswithotherprojectsandprogramsof
USAID,otherdonorsandthegovernment;
Capacitybuildingneedsassessmentandtraining
plan;
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 18
EXHIBIT 13 - SELECTING A COURSE OF ACTION
PILOTSTUDY COURSEOFACTION
MALI
2ndStakeholderWorkshopconvenedtopresentanalysisofadaptationsandprioritizeadaptations
Farmersprioritiesforadaptationsfocusedonirrigationinfrastructure,betterequipmentandstorage
capacityandcredittoallowcroptobestoreduntilpricesaremorefavorable
Representativesoftheregionalagriculturaltechnicalservicesfavoredcropdiversification,germplasm
improvements,andbettersoilandfertilizermanagement
2ndStakeholderWorkshopconvenedtopresentanalysisofadaptations.
SOUTHAFRICA
ParticipantsappliedtheevaluationcriteriafromStep3tocompletetheanalysisofoptions
Stakeholdersfavoredwaterdemandandconservationadaptationsovernewinfrastructure consistent
withcurrentprioritiesofSouthAfricaandUSAIDmission(waterdemandonly)
Adaptationspresentedtoparticipantsin2ndNationalWorkshopbutnotselectedforaction
ResultsprovidedtoThaiGovernmentforconsiderationinthedevelopmentoftheNationalStrategic
PlanonClimateChangethatwillincludeadaptationstrategiesinfivevulnerablesectorsandan
adaptationcapacitybuildingstrategy
THAILAND
Financial/businessplancoveringexpenditure
needsandrevenuegeneration,opportunitiesfor
co-financing;
Outreach/communicationsplan;
Exit/sustainabilityplan;and
Planformonitoringperformanceofthe
adaptations.
Theimplementationofadaptationoptionsreliesvery
heavilyontheengagementofthehostcountryas
USAIDprojectsandprogramswilllikelybelimitedin
durationandresources.Thelocalgovernmentwillbe
calledontoparticipateandlatercontinue
performancemonitoringandevaluation,andorganize
financingandtechnicalsupportforthoseadaptations
notincludedintheUSAIDprojectorprogram.The
exit/sustainabilityplanwillbeakeydocumentto
ensurecontinuityofimplementationactivitiesand
capacitybuildingaswellasmonitoringand
evaluation.Exhibit14onthenextpageillustrateshow
adaptationsinLaCeibaarebeingcoordinated
betweenthelocalofficeoftheUSAID-fundedMIRA
IntegratedWatershedManagementProjectandthe
UniversityofColoradoonbehalfoftheLaCeiba
Municipality.
STEP 6: EVALUATE THE
ADAPTATIONS
Afteradaptationoptionshavebeenimplemented,the
finalstepistoevaluatethem.Thepurposeofthe
evaluationistodeterminewhethertheprojector
activity1)deliverstheintendedbenefitsand/or2)
causesadverseoutcomes.Evaluatingaprojector
activityseffectivenessinreducingrisksfromclimate
variabilityandchangecanpresentimmediate
problemsfortworeasons:
1.Theprojectmaybedesignedtoreduce
vulnerabilitytoinfrequentextremeevents.Ifan
extremeeventoccurs,thentheprojectoractivity
canbeevaluated.Ifsuchaneventhasnot
occurred,itmaybedifficulttodetermineifthe
projectoractivitywasproperlyimplemented.
Notethateveniftheeventdoesnothappen
followingimplementation,thisdoesnotmeanthe
investmentwasunjustified.
2.Theprojectmayhavebeenmodifiedto
incorporatelong-termrisksfromclimatechange.
Thiscanbeevenmoredifficulttoevaluate.Long-
termchangesinclimatemaynotbeevidentwhen
itcomestimetoevaluatetheproject.Thislackof
animmediatepayoffshouldnotbeafactorinthe
decisionanalysis.
Incasessuchasthis,thereareotherwaystoevaluatea
projectoractivity.
Easeofimplementation.Howeasyordifficult
wasittoimplementtheproject?Howdoesthis
comparetowhatwasexpectedinthe
implementationplan?
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 19
EXHIBIT14 - IMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTATIONS IN LA CEIBA, HONDURAS
theri
l
l
i ;(5)
i
i
theregion.
protectionactionswithintheplans.
l
4. i
STEP4:SELECTCOURSEOFACTION
InLaCeiba,theProjectTeamconvenedthesecondoftwoStakeholderWorkshopsandpresentedthelistandanalysisof18
proposedadaptations.DuringtheWorkshop,stakeholdersrejectedtwooftheadaptations(constructionofaseawallandliningof
verchannel)becausetheywerenotdeemedtobefeasible,andaddedthreenewadaptations. Theadaptationsonthefinallist
includedthefollowing(newoptionsidentifiedthroughstakeholderobservationsareinitalics):
Riskmanagement (1)Decidewhatlevelofriskisappropriate;(2)Zoning;(3)Environmentaleducation
Coasta zone(developedareas) (1)Buildinggroinstoprotectagainsterosion;(2)Sandpumping;(3)Buildingbreakwaters
Coasta Zone(lessdevelopedareas) (1)Set-backs;(2)Zoningandbuildingcodes;(3)Constructionofhousesonstilts
RioCangrejalflooding (1)Improveddesignandhigherleveesinmostvulnerablelocations;(2)Limit deforestation and promote
reforestation; (3)Constructafloodcontroldam;(4)Dredgingofr ver Flood warning system
Urbandra nage (1)Accommodate/adapttoflooding;(2)Installdrainagesystems
STEP5:IMPLEMENTADAPTATIONS
TheProjectTeam,inconsultationswithstakeholdersandtheMIRAprojectstaffinLaCeiba,recommendedasetofadaptationsfor
USAIDtoconsideraddingtotheMIRAprojectandanothersetofinfrastructure-relatedadaptationsthatcouldbefinancedby
multi-lateraldevelopmentbanksordonors.Effortstoimplementrecommendedadaptationsareunderway.
TheMIRAProjectiscarryingoutthreefollow-upactivities:
1.Micro-watershedmanagementplann ngandimplementation. MIRAhasincorporatedthefloodinganalysis,improvedland-use
andwatershedmanagementrecommendationsinthedevelopmentandimplementationofmicro-watershedmanagementplansin
Informationfromthestudyhasbeenusedinlocalstakeholderworkshopstohelpdefinespecificland-use,forestryand
2.Disasterpreparednessandresponse. Identificationandmitigationofvulnerabilitytonaturaldisastersisakeycomponentofthe
micro-watershedplansdevelopedbytheproject.RiskassessmentandriskmitigationinformationfromtheStratusstudyhasbeen
incorporatedintothevulnerabilityassessmentsandmitigationrecommendationsintothewatershedplans,aswellascommunity
leveldisasterpreparednessandresponseplansandtrainingevents.
3.Loca governanceandenvironmentalpolicy. Riskmanagementprinciplesandimprovedland-useandlanddevelopmentpractices
wereincludedinlocalpolicyandordinanceinitiatives,especiallythoserelatedtotourismdevelopment.
Urbanfloodpla nmodelinganddesign.CivilEngineeringclassesattheUniversityofColoradoareusingLaCeibaasateaching
toolunderthedirectionofProfessorKenStrzepek(whowasamemberoftheProjectTeam).Studentshavemodeled50-year
floodsandthe50-yearfloodplainanddevelopedthepre-designfortheurban drainage system foroneofthepoorandvulnerable
neighborhoodsofLaCeiba.Subsequentclasseswillproducedesignsandcostestimatesforurbanstormwatersystemsforall
downtownareasofLaCeiba.
Costs.Werecostsofimplementationas
anticipated?
Theevaluationshouldexamine:
Adverseimpacts.Hastheprojectoractivity
causedadverseimpacts,e.g.,environmental
impacts?Weretheseanticipated?Howcantheybe
ameliorated?Ifunanticipated,dotheseadverse
impactsoutweightherealizedorpotentialbenefits
oftheproject?Thesecanbedifficultand
challengingquestionstoaddress.
Creationofbenefits.Hastheprojectproduced
immediatebenefits?Howdothesecompareto
whatwasanticipatedintheimplementationplan?
Iftheevaluationhasrevealedthattheadaptation(s)
havenotbeensuccessfulinconfrontingclimate
variabilityandclimatechangethenitwouldbe
necessarytoreturntoStep3andreassesspossible
adaptationsandselectnewadaptationsormodifythe
currentsetofadaptations.Thesuccessofadaptations
willbebothincomparisontothebaselineand
throughadirectconsiderationofthesocioeconomic
situationoftheaffectedlocalpopulation.
CONCLUSION AND
NEXT STEPS
Thereisanadditionalroleevaluationcanplay,thatis,
toevaluatethisprocessitself.Usersshouldevaluate
howwellthesestepsworked,therolestakeholders
played,theusefulnessofanalysisininforming
decision-making,howconsensusonselectionof
optionswasreached,andsoon.Suchinformationcan
beusefulinupdatingandimprovingthisprocessfor
futureprojectplanninganddesign.
TheGlobalClimateChangeTeamviewsthisManual
asadocumentthatwillgrowandchangeasneeded.
Ifyouhaveanyquestionsorcomments,pleasecontact
JohnFurlow(jfurlow@usaid.gov).
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 20
ANNEX 1
PILOT STUDY CONTRIBUTORS
LaCeiba,HondurasPilotStudy
JoelB.Smith(Coordinator)StratusConsulting
KennethStrzepek(climatescience)UniversityofColorado
JulieRichards(coastalanalysis)UniversityofSouthampton
JulioCardini(coastalanalysis)-consultant
MarioCastanedaandCarlosQuiroz(floodinganalysis)-consultants
PepeHerrero,ChristianeAriasandJuanMoyaMIRAProject,IRG
Zignasso,MaliPilotStudy
Dr.KrisEbiandJoelSmith(Co-Coordinators)
MamadouDoumbiaandAlphaKergna(analysisofadaptationoptions)
TanveerButtandBruceMcCarl(analysisofclimatechangeimpactsonagriculture)TexasA&MUniversity
SiakaBagayoko(organizationofstakeholdermeetings)
Polokwane,SouthAfricaPilotStudy
JoelB.Smith(Coordinator)StratusConsulting
KennethStrzepek(climatescience)UniversityofColorado
MarkTadrossandBruceHewitson(climatechangescenarios)-ClimateSystemsAnalysisGroup,Universityof
CapeTown
JamesCullisandAndreGorgens(runoffandwatermanagementanalysis)-NinhamShandConsultingService
BurgertGildenhuys(baselinewaterdemandprojections)-BCGildenhuysandAssociates
PetrusMatji(organizationofstakeholdermeetings)MatjiandAssociates
BeyersHavenga(partner)SouthAfricanDepartmentofWaterAffairs
SongkramRiver,ThailandPilotStudy
PradeepTharakanandGlenAnderson(Coordinators)IRG
SuppakornChinnavanoandAnondSnidvongs(climatescenarios)START-SEA(GlobalChangeSystemfor
Analysis,ResearchandTraining-SouthEastAsiaCenter)
RichardFriend,DavidBlake,SuparerkJanprasart,TawatachaiRattanasornandRattaphonPitaktapsombut
(stakeholdermeetingsandadaptationoptions)MekongWetlandBiodiversityProgram,IUCN
JuhaSarkkulaandMattiKummu(inundationmodeling)WUP-Fin(WaterUsersProgram,Finnish
EnvironmentalInstitute)
AreeWattanaTummakird,OfficeofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalPolicyandPlanning(ONEP),
MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 21
ANNEX 2 V&A RESOURCES AND LINKS
SUBJECT ORIGINAL SOURCE YEAR LINK
USAID
e/index.html
2007
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2001
Impacts
2005
2002
2004
UNEP
2000
I
Gross Domestic Product per capita in 1999 USD
2001
Maps/SKAR-64GDHA?OpenDocument
2001
Maps/SKAR-64GBEW?OpenDocument
2005
Maps/LDOK-697TZF?OpenDocument
Global Climate Change General
USAID Global Climate Change Team program and
documents (World)
Website
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climat
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (World)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/wg2outlines.pdf
Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability - Summary for Policy Makers of the
Working Group II (World)
http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc tar/wg2/index.htm
Global Climate Change
Climate impacts of El Nio (Latin America)
United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
(citing: IPCC 2001, FAO 2002, UNEP 2003)
http://www.vitalgraphics.net/lac.cfm?pageID=24
Africa aridity zones (Africa)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), UNEP,
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the
Third Assessment Report of the IPCC
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/aridity zones
Impacts of climate change on Africa (Africa) Anna Ballance, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_vul
nerability in africa1
Sea Level Rise Rate (World) US Environmental and Protection Agency
http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/con
tent/ClimateTrendsSeaLevel.html
Potential impact of sea level rise (Nile Delta) http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/34a.htm
Potential impact of sea level rise (Bangladesh)
UNEP/GRID Geneva: University of Dacca; JRO
Munich; The World Bank; World Resources Institute,
Washington D.C.
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential impact of
_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh
Socioeconomic Data and ndicators
(World)
United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900Large
World Human Development Index 2001 (World)
United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900Large
Population density (South Asia)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO)
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900Large
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
22
SUBJECT ORIGINAL SOURCE YEAR LINK
2005
2005
data id=26428&theme=
CIESIN 2002
CIESIN 2025 population projections SRESB2
CIESIN 2002
Health I I
UNEP 2006
UNEP 2006
ld
2006
UNEP 2005
A-6HAJUR?OpenDocument
UNEP
UNEP
2000
2002
2002
2001
2002
Poverty by GDP (Africa) World Resources Institute
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/fullMaps Af.nsf/luFullMap
/A82EDDCCA545615A852570FA0065CFAB/$File/
wri_EDU_afr310805.pdf?OpenElement
Projected population density (World) CIESIN, FAO and CIAT
http://www.povertymap.net/mapsgraphics/index.cfm?
CIESIN 2025 GDP projections SRESB2 (World)
www.ciesin.org/datasets/downscaled/htmls/Guidance
_Paper.pdf
(World)
http://ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/downscaled/
mpacts and ndicators
Malaria: baseline climate vs. climate change scenario
(World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/41.htm
Spread of major tropical vector-borne diseases
(Tropics)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/39.htm
Malaria grip in Africa (Africa)
A. Plarr McGinn, Malaria, Mosquitoes, and DDT, Wor
Watch, Vol. 15. No.3, May-June 2002
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/18.htm
Lack of access to safe water as of 2001 (World)
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/AHA
Natural Resources and Water
Fresh water stresses: water withdrawal as
percentage of total available (World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
Level of water stress for the global population in
1990 and 2025; Population living in countries with
water stress under different emissions scenarios in
the 2080's (World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/38.htm
Global Freshwater Withdrawal: Country Profiles
Based on Agricultural, Industrial and Domestic Use
(World)
Based on data from Table FW1 in 'World Resources
2000-2001, People and Ecosystems: the Fraying Web of
Life', World Resources Institute (WRI), Washington DC,
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global freshwater wi
thdrawal_country_profiles_based_on_agricultural_in
dustrial_and_domestic_use
World's Freshwater Supplies: Annual Renewable
Supplies per Capita per River Basin (World)
Revenga et al., 2000, from 'Pilot Analysis of Global
Ecosystems: Freshwater Systems'
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world s freshwater
supplies annual renewable supplies per capita per
_river_basin
Black sea water indicators (Black Sea Region) WRI, Washington DC
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/black sea water indi
cators giwa
Water availability and scarcity 1990 vs. 2025 (Africa
broken down by country)
UNECA, Addis Ababa; Global Environment Outlook
2000 (GEO), UNEP, Earthscan, London, 1999
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/15.htm
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
23
SUBJECT ORIGINAL SOURCE YEAR LINK
2002
1997
data id=10153&theme=
1997
data_id=23360&theme=
UNEP
Uganda (Uganda)
UNEP
1989
2006 p/3C91EAD07F9BD3678525711B0055739C/$File/w
(CRED)
2001
aps/SKAR-64GE97?OpenDocument
UNEP 2002
I I
1996
2004-2006
se2.asp
Fresh water stress and scarcity in Africa by 2025
(Africa)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
(UNECA), Addis Ababa; Global Environment Outlook
(GEO) 2000, UNEO, Earthscan, London, 1999,
Population Action International
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater stress an
d scarcity in africa by 2025
Global cultivation intensity (World) Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)
http://www.povertymap.net/mapsgraphics/index.cfm?
Soil degradation (World)
Atlas of desertification in the world, Second edition,
Arnold Publishers, London, 1997
http://www.povertymap.net/mapsgraphics/index.cfm?
Changes in cereal production under three different
GCM equilibrium scenarios (World/developed vs.
developing countries)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/35.htm
Impact of temperature rise on robusta coffee in
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/36.htm
Impact of temperature rise on tea in Kenya (Kenya)
Otto Simonett, Potential impacts of global warming,
GRID-Geneva, case studies on climate change. Geneva, http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/22.htm
Natural Disasters
Natural hazards (World) UN World Food Programme
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/fullMaps Wd.nsf/luFullMa
fp_ND_wrl200206.pdf?OpenElement
Distribution of People Affected by Natural Disasters
1975-2000 (World)
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900LargeM
People affected by natural disasters 1971-2000
(Africa)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/08.htm
Agriculture mpacts and ndicators
Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production,
(World)
FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5183E/W5183E00.htm
Screening Tools
Community-based Risk Screening Tool-Adaptation &
Livelihoods (CRiSTAL)
The International Institute for Sustainable Development
http://www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_pha
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
24
l i
i
l
U.S. Agency for International Development
1300Pennsy van aAvenue,NW
Wash ngton,DC20523
Te :(202)712-0000
Fax:(202)216-3230
www.usaid.gov