Energy Demand and Security of Power Supply 2013

Energy Demand and security of
power supply

Birgitte Bak-Jensen
Institute of Energy Technology
Aalborg University
www.et.aau.dk
E-mail: bbj@et.aau.dk

2
Topics
Energy demand worldwide
Introduction to energy systems
Energy demand
In the world
US
Germany
Estonia
Denmark
Measures to provide balance in the future
Integration and Control of Wind Farms
in the Danish Electricity System
3
Introduction to overall energy system
Need for different kind of power
Electrical
Thermal
Hydraulic
Mechanical
Different ways to produce the power
Power plants (fossil fuels, hydro, gas, waste etc)
Wind turbines
Use of alternative energy resources
Different ways to transmit the power

4
HEAT
LOADS
POWER STATION
SOLAR CELLS
WIND TURBINE
MOTOR
PUMP
ROBOTICS
REFRIGERATOR
TELEVISION
LIGHT
TRANSFORMER
INDUSTRY
=
POWER SUPPLY
ac dc
TRANSFORMER
COMPEN -
SATOR
FUEL
CELLS
FUEL
[
COMMUNICATION
COMBUSTION
ENGINE
SOLAR
ENERGY
TRANSPORT
3 3 3 1 - 3
3
DC
AC
~
POWER STATION
SOLAR CELLS
WIND TURBINE
MOTOR
PUMP
ROBOTICS
REFRIGERATOR
TELEVISION
LIGHT
TRANSFORMER
INDUSTRY
=
POWER SUPPLY
ac dc
TRANSFORMER
COMPEN -
SATOR
FUEL
CELLS
FUEL
[
COMMUNICATION
COMBUSTION
ENGINE
SOLAR
ENERGY
TRANSPORT
3 3 34 1 - 3
3
DC
AC
~
DC
AC
DC
AC
PRIMARY
FUEL
CHP
Energy
Storages
Energy
Storages
FACTS/CUPS
Keywords: Energy production Energy distribution Energy consumption Energy control
Energy demand

5
http://www.glassmanwealth.com/is-an-energy-crisis-next-on-the-
horizon-2/
Energy demand

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-
30/markets/31004698_1_oecd-demand-growth-energy-demand
Energy demand

7
http://energyanswered.org/questions/how-important-is-oil-sands-
to-americas-energy-future
Energy demand

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=98&contentId=7069626
9
Energy demand
Ref:www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook_p...
Electricity demand

10
http://www.marketsize.com/blog/index.php/2011/03/
March 2011
Electricity demand

The installed capacity has to
increase by over 80%
New power sources becomes
interesting
More efficient use of the
existing sources
From production to end
user
Power balance extremely
important
New energy storage devices
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2011
/key_world_energy_stats.pdf
Electricity generation by region

12
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2011
/key_world_energy_stats.pdf
13
Energy demand
Ref:http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/final-electricity-consumption-by-sector/final-
electricity-consumption-by-sector-2
Electricity consumption per capita (in kWh/cap) in 2008
Development in Energy Technology

14
Future Power System
Less central power plants and more
DPGS
Current Power System
15
Energy demand US
Ref: http://www.sankey-
diagrams.com/tag/us/

over half of the energy
produced for our domestic
market goes to waste. Fully two
thirds of the energy produced
by electrical generation and
distribution goes to waste.

16
Energy demand US
Ref: http://www.energyliteracy.com/?p=126

2/3 of US electricity is wasted!
Energy demand US
In 2010, renewable energy increased to 8% of the total primary energy consumed in the U.S
http://endofcrudeoil.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html
17
Energy demand D
Primary energy mix in Germany in 2010 (in % )

http://blog.american.com/2011/08/the-costs-of-german-fear-energy-fact-of-the-week/
18
19
Energy demand D
Balance of Electricity supply in Germany 2007
Ref: www.fair-pr.com/background/facts.php

20
Energy demand D
Development of electricity generated in Germany from renewable energy sources until
2015
Ref: http://www.wwindea.org/technology/ch04/en/4_1_2_1.html
Ref: http://www.bmu.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/hintergrund_zahlen2006_eng.pdf
Energy demand D
Structure of renewable energy technologies for electricity supply in Germany
22
Energy demand EST
Ref: http://www.enercee.net//estonia/energy-demand.html
23
Energy demand EST
Ref: http://www.enercee.net/fileadmin/enercee/test/Est-fin-
cons-energy2010.GIF
24
Energy demand EST
http://www.enercee.net/estonia/energy
-supply.html
Electric capacity in Nordic countries
Ref: Danish Electricity Supply 2009, Statistical Survey, Dansk Energi
26
Overview of
DPGS
Wind energy highest development
Solar energy next highest development
Wave energy largely unexplored
Tidal energy largely unexplored
Small hydro (<10MW), 47GW used, 180 GW untapped (70% in
developing countries). Oldest technology (not covered)
Biomass 18GW used (2000), largely unexplored. Used in CHP.
Advantages of DPGS:
Load management (peak shaving)
Power quality (required by standards!)
Enhanced voltage stabiliity
Reduced transmission losses
Potential for improving grid reliability/stability
Disadvantage - high cost!
Development in Energy Technology
27
Production capacity in Denmark
28
East
MW
West
MW
Central power plants 3.755 3.402
Decentralized power
plants
628 1.741
Wind power on-shore 578 2.232
Wind power off-shore 166 160
Consumption (max
load 10 year winter)
3.031 4.060
Ref: http://www.energinet.dk/NR/rdonlyres/F53D95F7-36FF-477A-
AD71-35C64DEDAFA4/0/Analyseforudstninger20072016.pdf
29
Decentralized power plants categorized after size.

East Denmark West Denmark Denmark
Power
MW
Number Power
MW
Number Power
MW
Number
0-5MW
181 222 547 483 728 705
5-10MW
120 18 295 44 415 62
10-50MW
192 11 476 25 668 36
50-100 MW
136 2 423 6 559 8
Total
628 253 1741 558 2370 811
Ref: http://www.energinet.dk/NR/rdonlyres/F53D95F7-36FF-477A-AD71-35C64DEDAFA4/0/Analyseforudstninger20072016.pdf
Wind turbines categorized after size

East Denmark West Denmark Denmark
Power
MW
Number Power
MW
Number Power
MW
Number
0-149kW
4 101 14 286 18 397
150-450kW
96 392 270 1288 366 1680
451-900kW
355 546 1393 2033 1748 2579
901-1300kW
42 40 255 232 297 272
1301-2000kW
72 37 377 205 449 242
>2000kW
175 75 82 32 257 107
Total
744 1191 2392 4076 3136 5267
31
32
The surroundings of the Western Danish Power System:
- connecting the transmission systems of Nordel
(Scandinavia) and UCTE (Continental Europe).
DK West is a regular transit area
with large interconnections to
the neighbouring areas:

Norway (HVDC Skagerrak):
Capacity: 1,000 MW

Sweden (HVDC KontiSkan):
Capacity 720 MW

Germany (AC):
Capacity, import: 900 MW
Capacity, export: 1,500 MW
33
Import and export from Denmark in GWh
34
Installed wind capacity share in the electricity supply in Denmark by year
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Installed wind capacity (MW) 2,489 2,892 3,117 3,125 3,129 3,136 3,125
Wind power share in the electricity supply (%) 12.1 13.8 15.8 18.5 18.5 16.8 19.7
Ref:http://www.danskenergi.dk/~/media/Energi_i_tal/Statistik_07_UK_net%20pdf.ashx
Ref: http://www.power-
technology.com/projects/
hornsreefwind/hornsreef
wind1.html
35
Wind production in % of consumption
Wind Production in % of consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1
-
0
1
-
2
0
0
7
3
1
-
0
1
-
2
0
0
7
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-
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3
-
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7
0
1
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-
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7
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1
-
0
5
-
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1
-
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5
-
2
0
0
7
3
0
-
0
6
-
2
0
0
7
3
0
-
0
7
-
2
0
0
7
2
9
-
0
8
-
2
0
0
7
2
8
-
0
9
-
2
0
0
7
2
8
-
1
0
-
2
0
0
7
2
7
-
1
1
-
2
0
0
7
2
7
-
1
2
-
2
0
0
7
Date
%
% of consumption Denmark
36
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1
-
0
1
-
2
0
0
7
3
1
-
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-
0
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-
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1
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4
-
2
0
0
7
0
1
-
0
5
-
2
0
0
7
3
1
-
0
5
-
2
0
0
7
3
0
-
0
6
-
2
0
0
7
3
0
-
0
7
-
2
0
0
7
2
9
-
0
8
-
2
0
0
7
2
8
-
0
9
-
2
0
0
7
2
8
-
1
0
-
2
0
0
7
2
7
-
1
1
-
2
0
0
7
2
7
-
1
2
-
2
0
0
7
Date
%
% of consumption ENDK-E
37
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1
-
0
1
-
2
0
0
7
3
1
-
0
1
-
2
0
0
7
0
2
-
0
3
-
2
0
0
7
0
1
-
0
4
-
2
0
0
7
0
1
-
0
5
-
2
0
0
7
3
1
-
0
5
-
2
0
0
7
3
0
-
0
6
-
2
0
0
7
3
0
-
0
7
-
2
0
0
7
2
9
-
0
8
-
2
0
0
7
2
8
-
0
9
-
2
0
0
7
2
8
-
1
0
-
2
0
0
7
2
7
-
1
1
-
2
0
0
7
2
7
-
1
2
-
2
0
0
7
Date
%
% of consumption ENDK-W
38
Development in decentralized power plants in
the West Denmark area
39
Decentralized production development during the last 12 months in the
West Denmark area
40
Energy demand DK


41
Energy demand DK

Primary energy supply in DK by two different prognosis methods
Export SE-
elec.
Solar
heat
Biomass Natural
gas
Oil Coal
42
Energy demand DK
43
Energy demand DK
44
Introduction to the existing Danish power system

Danish energy demand
Ref:http://www.danskenergi.dk/~/media/Energi_i_tal/Statistik_07_UK_net%20pdf.ashx

45

Danish Electricity Supply 2009, Statistical Survey, Dansk Energi
49
Future demands in DK
Future demands to the energy systems
from the government strategy plan 2025.
Energy saving initiatives must grow 1,25% annually
Share of Renewable energy should be increased to at
least 30% of energy consumption I 2025
Biofuels in the transport sector should be increased
to at least 10% by 2020.
More efficient energy technologies should be made,
the finansial support from government is doubled up
to 2010.
New infra structure with regard to the electrical
transmission system and the gas system.

50
Point from the government energy strategy
Points with relevance to electrical power and combined
heat and power production.
3000 MW extra wind power ~ 50% wind power for the
electrical demand in DK
100.000 oil-fired boilers to be replaced with heat pumps
50 new large biogas power plants
Increased flexibility in the choice of fuels
Production of 2nd generation bio-fuel for transport
Improved exploitation of energy from waste in combined
heat and power production plants
An energy saving market, and flexible electricity
consumption
District cooling
Development of hydrogen and fuel cell systems. Especially
intended for micro combined heat and power systems

51
Consequences for the electrical system
Increased need for balancing control power
Several occasions a year with surplus power and with a larger amount
Need for both and energy as well as a power balance
New price-elastic power consumption
Renewable energy which can replace fossil fuels
Today (first 8 weeks of 2007)
Today + 3000MW
Wind power Minimum regulating power Load
52
What should ensure the balance in the future
DK have to use internal balance control possibilities as well as using the connection to
our neighbour countries if the stability and security of supply shall be maintained and
the usage of the wind power production are to be optimized also with regard to the
market and environment.
The below profile demands a huge and expensive amount of balancing power
Surplus power
53
Balance control through new measures
Power production by use of fossil fuels or bio-fuels are controlled
up/down at fluctuations in the wind-power
Increase the role of the district heating in the total energy system
The power plants gets the possibility to shift among the production
of electricity, heat and bio-fuels
Use electrical power where it replaces fossil fuels i.e. for boilers,
heat-pumps, electric heating elements etc.
Improve the electrical infra-structure also the connections to our
neighbouring countries
Use price-elastic electric energy consumption
Control the power production from the wind-turbines
Conversion/storage of electrical energy to other energies i.e.
hydrogen, electrical cars, compressed air storages, fuel-cells etc.

54
System demands/ rules of Energinet.dk

Primary control:
Maintain the balance between generation and demand in the
network using turbine speed governors
Automatic control to regulate the frequency within seconds
Secondary control:
Secure import/export balancing with neighbouring areas with
reserve generating capacities. Control within minutes
In case of a major frequency deviation in the control area to
restore the frequency and to free capacity for the primary control
Can be manual or automatic
Tertiary control:
Is automatic or manual change in the working points of generators
in order to restore adequate secondary control reserve at the right
time

55
West Denmark power system
Power system key figures (WDK) MW
Centralized power plant units 3400
Decentralized CHP units 1750
Wind turbines 2400
Offshore Wind - Horns Rev A 160
Maximum demand 3767
Minimum demand 2669
Transmission capacity from Germany to
W. Denmark
950
Transmission capacity from W.
Denmark to Germany
1500
Transmission capacity with Norway 1040
Transmission capacity with Sweden 740
Regulation
reserves
Primary Automatic Manual
Capacity (MW) +/- 24 +/- 90 +290/-310
Activation time 0 - 30sec 30sec - 15min 15min
Activation mode Automatic Load frequency control Manual
56
System demands/ rules of Energinet.dk
NORDEL

Decoupling of power plants
Emergency power by HVDC
connections
Lowering
generation
Frequency control/primary control
Emergency power by
HVDC connections
Load shedding,
diconnection of connection
lines
Disconnection of
large combined
power plants
The reserve is activated
57
Example of agreement concerning system demands:
Table 1. Agreement concerning systems demands between E2 and Elkraft System. /2/

Type
Demand Maximum activation time
Frequency control reserve 25MW at 0.1 Hz 2-3 minutes
Reserve up regulation 150 MW Minimum 2.5 MW per minute as
an average over 10 minutes
Reserve deregulation 150 MW Minimum 2.5 MW per minute as
an average over 10 minutes
Momentary regulating power 50 MW at 49.5 Hz 5/30 second
Fast reserve 300 MW
60 MW
240 MW
15 minutes
1 hour
1 hour 30 minutes
Reactive reserve/voltage control Minimum 3 systems with each 50
to 100 MVAr control
synchronized to the 132kV/400 kV
network grid
Few seconds
Start after a blackout According to appendix
58
System demands
Industry and decentralized power plants have
now to participate in the market demands:
The TSO have made deals with different industry
concerning regulating power from their emergency
power system and by lowering their power.
Reserved should be available within 10 minutes.
From 2007 all plants above 5 MW are included in
an agreement about power payment, so ensure
that the plants are available for the market
demands.
59
Possibilities for reserve
Power balance
in Nordel
2009/10
60
Possibilities for reserve
Rolling reserve:
By changing the demands for reserve from the
decentralised power plants
By using reserves from the wind turbines
Use emergency power units in the industry
By load shedding according to different rules
By use of on-line pricing systems to control some of
the loads.
Energy storage:
Use of energy storages to somehow average the
power from the wind turbines
61
Integration and Control of Wind Farms
in the Danish Electricity System
Ph.D. Candidate: Akarin Suwannarat

Supervisors: Birgitte Bak-Jensen, Zhe Chen
PhD Defense on January 14, 2008 at Aalborg University
November 2004 November 2007
PSO 4102 Project
62
Related problems with Renewable Energy Power
Problems with wind power fluctuations:
Power Balancing Control
63

On large interconnected networks, the issue seems to be
load following and power balancing

Need more regulating power with the increased wind
power penetration
Objectives

Need for dedicated system
modelling tools for analysing high
penetration of wind power
generations

Control strategies for power
balancing control

Technical issues which might limit
the wind power penetration in
Danish power system
Implementation and Development of Models

64

AGC system

Wind Farm Power Control
Gradient control, Delta Control, Balance Control

Centralised thermal power plant
Secondary control

Decentralized CHP unit
Fast Secondary control

Great Belt Link HVDC connection
Regulating power control

The connections with UCTE and Nordel systems
Time-series for the connections with Norway and Sweden
Slack-bus for the connection with Germany
Two Bus-Bars Danish Power System
65
No transmission network
Generating units and system interconnections is included

66
Danish power system in 2025 with the great belt link connection
No Wind Farms
Installed
Capacities
(MW)
Total Capacities
(MW)
1 Djursland 2*200 400
2 Horns Rev 5*200 1000
3 Jammebugt 4*200 800
4 Ringkbing 5*200 1000
5 Store Meddelgrund 200 200
6 Kriegers Flak 4*200 800

Large scale wind power penetration which
corresponding to 50% of electricity
consumption

Largest part will be placed in the western
area
Integration and Control of Wind Farms in the Danish Electricity System
Control Strategies for Power Balancing Control
67
Different control strategies are demonstrated:

a) Secondary control of the centralized power plants

b) Regulating power control from DCHP units

c) Delta control from wind farms

Deviations from the planned power exchange (PDEV) between the
measured power (PMEAS) and the planned power (PPLAN) with the UCTE
system shall be minimized by the power balancing control (PCTRL)

Balance
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl
P P P P
Thermal
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl
P P P P
Thermal DCHP
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl Ctrl
P P P P P
Thermal DCHP HRA
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl Ctrl Delta
P P P P P P
Case study wind
68
Forecast Wind Power with measured wind power and Power
deviation of HRA
Simulation Studies:
HRA wind farm

Measured power from HRA is rescaled
to 160 MW to give a kind of worst
case scenario

To keep the power exchange between
the western Danish system and the
UCTE system at the planned power
exchange
Simulation results
69
Thermal
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl
P P P P
Power Plants Active Power (MW) pf
Plant 1 1684 0.25
Plant 2 700 0.25
Plant 3 392 0.25
Plant 4 625 0.25
Plant 1 1684 0.25
Plant 2 700 0.25
Plant 3 392 0.25
Plant 4 625 0.20
DCHP 400 0.05
Thermal DCHP
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl Ctrl
P P P P P
Control strategy: 1)
Simulation results
70
Plant 1 1684 0.25
Plant 2 700 0.25
Plant 3 392 0.25
Plant 4 625 0.20
DCHP 400 0.05
HRA wind farm - 0.05
Thermal DCHP WF
DEV MEAS PLAN Ctrl Ctrl delta
P P P P P P
71
71
Demand side management and Load Characteristics
As electricity markets are liberalized, if a
time-of-use electricity price could be
available for consumers, they may decide
to modify the profile of their demand to
reduce their electricity costs as much as
possible.

The customer driven load control against
real time prices may generate
unexpected load profiles.
72
72
Electricity Price and Load Characteristics
The spot price of west Demark in the year
2007
73
73
The consumers may get the electricity
price one day before the actual delivery
day.

If the consumers have not made a fixed
price contract in the future, the
consumers may change their load
depend on the electricity price to
minimize their energy cost.
74
74
The spot price of west Denmark in a winter
weekday and 3 typical different kinds of loads in
a winter weekday

75
75

76
76

77
77
78
78
The SCP of different loads at January, 2007
79
79
The original load duration curve (dot line) and
the optimal load duration curve (solid line) of
residential load in year 2007.

80
80
The optimal load response to a time-of-use electricity price for
demand side management generates different load profiles and
provides an opportunity to achieve power loss minimization in
distribution systems with high wind power penetrations.
81
81
Distribution system configuration under investigation

The studied distribution system is with high wind power penetrations, where 47.3% of the
loads are supplied by wind power in the high wind speed time.

1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15 16
17 18
5
P
11
P
13
P
14
P
1 wt
P
2 wt
P
3 wt
P
WT1
WT2 WT3
82
82
Electricity price

Industrial load at bus 5 Residential load at bus 14
83
83
Electricity price

Commercial load at bus 11 Commercial load at bus 13
84
84
The total power loss under the fixed electricity price (asterisk) and the
total power loss under the new electricity price (diamond) in the
distribution system

The total daily power loss in the distribution system decreases from 1568.0 kW (under the
original fixed electricity price) to 1351.8 kW (under the new optimal electricity price)
85
The energy demand and supply of power
Conclusion
The structure of the Danish energy system has been detailed shown
It shows a lot of decentralized production by
Wind turbines
Central combined heat and power plants
Small decentralized combined heat and power plants
Related problems with Renewable Energy Power
There are fluctuations in the delivered power from
Wind turbines
Decentralized combined heat and power plants
The load fluctuates as well
The production from the central power plants are dependent on the needed
heat production
Lead to Electricity surplus
The situation get worse in the future at a higher wind penetration
Regarding system demands and power balance it is shown, that the
Nordic countries still can keep the power balance themselves

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