Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
RGEN BO
HNER
BOREAS
Bo hner, J. 2006 (May): General climatic controls and topoclimatic variations in Central and High Asia. Boreas,
Vol. 35, pp. 279/295. Oslo. ISSN 0300-9483.
Basic features of current spatial and seasonal climate variations in Central and High Asia are presented. Large-
scale circulation modes were inferred from NCAR/CDAS General Circulation Model (GCM) data and
interpreted with particular emphasis on the Asian Monsoon circulation. Using spatial high-resolution estimates
of radiation, temperature and precipitation covering Central and High Asia in a regular grid network with a grid-
cell spacing of 1 km
2
, topoclimatic variations are investigated and discussed with respect to their major barometric
and topographic controls. In general, weather patterns of Central and High Asia are determined by tropical
monsoon as well as extratropical circulation modes. Associated synoptic conditions and processes, in particular
the alternation of tropical and polar air masses, lead to distinct large-scale variations valid for all climatic
parameters in all seasons. The regional analysis and discussion of climatic gradients and environmental lapse rates
stress the significant role of Asias marked orography and its influence on advective processes, flow currents and
topoclimatic settings. Preliminary estimations of the annual water balance, however, are still afflicted with major
uncertainties owing to methodical limits in the spatial estimation of precipitation rates and widely lacking
evapotranspiration records, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent high mountain systems. Given the
importance of the mountainous water resources for the affected economies, further regional investigations on the
water cycle and its components are vital future tasks for climate research.
Ju rgen Bo hner (e-mail: jboehne1@gwdg.de), Department of Geography, Georg-August-University Go ttingen,
D-37077 Go ttingen, Germany; .
Climate impact studies, whether they deal with the
reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental changes or the
prediction of possible future impacts of changing
climates, have very diverse needs on climate input
data. Most climate impact studies require local
information on present and future climates with
temporal high resolution and accuracy. Reliable spatial
extended baseline climatologies are a crucial but
essential data resource for palaeoclimatologists and
climatologists who are concerned with the study
of palaeoenvironmental changes. In complex high-
mountain environments, moreover, spatially high-reso-
lution information on the topoclimatic settings is
frequently required; these settings are seldom suffi-
ciently represented by the available meteorological
station network. This is particularly valid for Central
and High Mountain Asia, where sparsely distributed
meteorological stations are mostly situated in lower
altitudes within valleys or oases belts, not representa-
tive of the actual high mountain climates. Although
the extension of meteorological networks and the
implementation of automated screens lead to a better
overall picture on climates and climatic processes
from this climato-sensitive region, the interior areas
of the Tibetan Plateau and its bordering high moun-
tain ranges are less represented to date (Miehe et al.
2001).
Owing to this general lack and hardly representa-
tive distribution of climatic observations from Central
and High Mountain Asia, a statistical downscaling
approach for the spatial estimation of different
climate variables was developed in the context of
research projects on late-Quaternary environmental
changes in Central and High Asia. Using General
Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, Digital Terrain
Model (DTM) data and available climate records
from meteorological networks, extensive gridded cli-
mate datasets were generated to: (1) detect present
climatic controls of the natural and semi-natural
environments (e.g. glacial and periglacial environ-
ments), (2) infer climate transfer functions from proxy
records, necessary for palaeoclimatic reconstructions
and for the validation of palaeoclimate model simula-
tions, and (3) predict and assess possible future
climatic impacts on the natural and semi-natural
environments. These three application modes within
an overall framework for environmental change
modelling and model-based climate impact assess-
ments were discussed by Bo hner (2004a), Bo hner &
Lehmkuhl (2005) and Klinge et al. (2003). Given the
general lack of climate information in the high-
mountain environments of Asia, in this article a
compilation of selected climate layers are discussed
in order to provide a first summarizing survey on
the current spatial and seasonal climatic variations
DOI 10.1080/03009480500456073 # 2006 Taylor & Francis
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of Central and High Asia. After a brief description of
methods and material, the seasonal variations of
general atmospheric circulation patterns and synoptic
processes are discussed. Then the zonal and hypso-
metric differentiation of radiation, temperature and
precipitation is sketched with special attention given
to large-scale atmospheric and local-scale topographic
controls. Since the seasonal subdivision of the climatic
regions of Central and High Asia is highly challen-
ging, it is impossible to define seasons that would be
equally valid for all regions and climatic parameters.
In this article, I therefore discuss the spatial climate
variations on the example of selected months (Jan-
uary, April, July, October), months that are taken to
be representative of the annual climatic variability.
Study area
The study area (Fig. 1) extends from 21836?N to
53801?N at 908E and from 19854?N to 50827?N at its
eastern and western margin. The longitudinal exten-
sion varies with latitude and is from 62811?E to
117849?E at the northern margin and from 71806?E to
108854?E at the southern margin. With a total of
14 000 000 km
2
, the study area covers most of the
Central Asian mountain systems and adjacent basins
and thus spans a wide range of different climates. These
comprise the extreme dry autochthonous climates of
the basins and deserts of Central Asia as well as the
hyper-humid monsoon climates of the northern and
north-easternmost parts of the Indian subcontinent.
Figure 1 shows a schematic representation of Central
and High Asias physiography and identifies the
most important topographic regions and locations
mentioned in the text.
Materials and methods
To date, a wide range of methods has been proposed
for the derivation of spatial climate data. Starting with
geostatistical (kriging) interpolation of point source
(weather station) data, they also comprise multiple
regression models as well as various physically based
modelling approaches, and thus vary widely in com-
plexity and sophistication. For a review of methodical
alternatives, refer to Chapman & Thornes (2003) and
Bo hner (2004b, 2005). The seasonal and annual
distribution patterns of radiation, temperature, preci-
pitation and evapotranspiration discussed in this
article were approximated using statistical downscaling
of GCM outputs and terrain parameterization meth-
ods. The climate model based approach was selected in
order to support environmental change modelling
applications with climate input data in a physically
consistent manner (Bohner & Lehmkuhl 2005). In the
following, the methods and considered databases are
only briefly sketched. A comprehensive description of
the entire downscaling scheme and involved methods is
presented in more detail in Bohner (2004b, 2005).
The empirical database at the core of method
development comprised temperature and precipitation
records from more than 400 meteorological stations,
available as monthly time series or long-term means
with a highest data density in the period 1961/1990.
Evapotranspiration series were only available from 64
sites of the Peoples Republic of China. These were
computed according to the Penman equation
(Schro dter 1985) and provided by A. Thomas (pers.
comm. 2004). Time series were checked and homo-
genized according to the measures described in Bo hner
(1996). A critical assessment of data sources and data
quality is given in Miehe et al. (2001). Figure 2 is an
overview of the spatial distribution of observation sites
and reveals the sparse cover and data availability in the
interior areas of the Tibetan Plateau.
The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) was obtained
from GTOPO-30 sources (edcaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/
gtopo30.html). The GTOPO-30 global elevation model
has a resolution of 30 arc seconds, corresponding to a
longitudinal resolution of about 926 m. The latitudinal
resolution varies with longitude between roughly 900 m
(at 208N) and 550 m (at 538N). The GTOPO-30 was
transformed into a standard cartesian DTM with a
grid cell spacing of 1 km
2
, defined for an Alberts Equal
Area Projection via ordinary kriging (Matheron 1963,
1973). GCM predictor variables were inferred from
NCAR/CDAS reanalysis series (Kalnay et al. 1996)
performed by the US National Center for Environ-
mental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The retroactively
modelled records contain free atmosphere variables
(e.g. geopotential height, temperature, moisture) for 13
discrete atmosphere layers in a regular grid network
with a horizontal resolution of 2.58 by 2.58 (Lat/Lon.)
as well as climate variables (e.g. cloud cover, precipita-
tion) defined on a Gaussian grid with a resolution of
approximately 1.98 by 1.98 (Lat./Lon.). The parameters
for characterization of the large-scale circulation
modes (e.g. u-wind and v-wind component, precitable
water, cf. Malberg 1994) were explored on the
multiple grid point level using continuous vertical
and horizontal approximation schemes in order to
enable a methodically consistent assimilation of
alternative GCM outputs with differing discretisations
(e.g. ECHAM-GCM palaeo-simulations; cf. Bo hner &
Lehmkuhl 2005).
Temperature and precipitation layers were estimated
by statistical downscaling (Bo hner 2004a,b, 2005). In
general, statistical (empirical) downscaling procedures
explore the relationship between large-scale circulation
modes (represented by GCM predictor variables) and
corresponding local variations of single weather vari-
ables (predictant variables, observed at one or a set of
meteorological stations), using multivariate statistical
280 Jurgen Bohner BOREAS 35 (2006)
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analyses. Because a once obtained empirical down-
scaling function enables a simulation of regional
weather variations on the base of the physically
consistent output of a GCM, statistical downscaling
is most frequently used in case studies and climate
change impact assessments (Von Storch 1995; Gyalis-
tras & Fischlin 1996; Gyalistras et al. 1998). Assuming
spatio-temporal variations of predictant variables to be
predominantly controlled by large-scale tropospheric
processes and regional to local-scale terrain determined
(or at least terrain affected) processes and topographic
settings, in this study, terrain attributes such as relative
altitudes above drainage network, horizon screening
and complex process parameterizations (e.g. cold air
flow, pressure drag parameterization, cf. Emeis 1994)
were integrated in the downscaling scheme. Using
multivariate statistical analyses to compute spatial
prediction functions, the entire procedure yields rea-
sonable estimations of temperature distributions with
coefficients of determination of /93% for monthly
records. Instead, precipitation estimates were distinctly
less accurate, attaining an explanation in the order of
only 70%. We assume this is mainly due to the insuf-
ficient GCM resolution, which, particularly in con-
vective dominated precipitation regimes, lies beyond
the characteristic precipitation representativeness of
about 100/150 km (Bo hner 1996). Modelled precipita-
tion and temperature estimates were subsequently
corrected by a separately interpolated residue layer,
computed via ordinary kriging (Matheron 1963, 1973).
Owing to lacking homogenous radiation records
from the study area, solar radiation was consistently
estimated using a semi-empirical modelling approach.
Based on GCM pressure and specific humidity data,
clear sky tropospheric attenuation was first approxi-
mated by an atmosphere-mass parameterization
Fig. 1. Study area (Bo hner & Lehmkuhl).
BOREAS 35 (2006) Climatic variations in Asia 281
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according to Malberg (1994). Subsequently, the cloud-
induced reduction was estimated using GCM cloud
cover data. The common A