Almost every war that America has fought since the beginning of the twentieth century was a war America had determined to avoid. We were neutral in World War I...until unlimited submarine warfare against our trans-Atlantic shipping became intolerable. We resisted entering World War II until Pearl Harbor. We defined the Korean peninsula as lying outside our defense perimeter, as our secretary of state declared in 1950, a few months before North Korea attacked South Korea and we leapt into the fray. A few years later, we rebuffed French appeals for support in Vietnam in order to avoid involving ourselves in that distant country which was soon to become the venue of our longest war and greatest defeat. In 1990, our ambassador to Iraq explained to Saddam Hussein that Washington had no opinion on...your border disagreement with Kuwait, which he took as encouragement to swallow his small neighbor, forcing a half million Americans to travel around the world to force him to disgorge it. A year after that, our secretary of state quipped about the violent disintegration of Yugoslavia that we have no dog in that fight, a sentiment echoed by his successor, of the opposite party, who, demonstrating his virtuosity at geography, observed that that country was a long way from home in a place where we lacked vital interestsall this not long before we sent our air force to bomb Serbia into ceasing its attacks on Bosnia and then bombed it again a few years later until it coughed up Kosovo. Yes, there is a pattern here. When international conflicts devolve into serious violence, they often land on Americas doorstep regardless of our wishes because ours is a big, influential, powerful country with far-flung interests. Ours is also arguably historys most successful country, so it is natural that those who have the good fortune to be Americans would rather go about their lives than entangle themselves overseas. But time and again we have seen that the choice is not up to us. Switzerland can remain neutral as wars come and go. America, not so easily. On my list of wars above, several might have been averted or at least fought on more favorable terms had we been more ready to fight. By the same token, our most brilliant foreign policy success, namely, averting a hot World War III and bringing the Cold War to a conclusion on our own terms, was the fruit of the most energetically internationalist policy that the US had ever adopted, indeed that any non-imperial power had ever pursued. This experience, as well as our dismal record at staying out of wars, should teach us some strong lessons about the deepest and most important question in US foreign policy, which is not about tactics and places but about how intensely engaged we should be. The shorthand for this debate is internationalism versus isolationism. The latter term may be unfair since no one preaches true isolation, but I use it to characterize the impulse toward a modest or restrained approach. Related Essay The R2P Doctrine Joshua Muravchik | ESSAY Joshua Muravchik reviews the history and flaws of the latest school of American interventionism. The case for this isolationism is weak, but not nonexistent. If we have sometimes erred in the direction of being too reluctant to engage, there may also have been instances when we were too hasty. We plunged into a second Iraq War that many Americans came to believe was too costly, too difficult to win, and of uncertain necessity. But even if this judgment is right, the Iraq War was a part of President George W. Bushs Global War on Terror, and possibly that war might have been averted had we fought terrorism more energetically before September 11, 2001. This includes opportunities to take Osama bin Laden out of action that we failed to seize. Had we been bolder, too, in 1991 and forced the ouster of Saddam Hussein at the end of the first Gulf War, we might have found no reason to go back into Iraq twelve years later. My point is not that America should resort to force lightly, heedless of the risk of embarking on a war that is either unnecessary or unwinnable, but rather that rarely is it realistic to imagine that we can mind our own business and let other countries get along as best they can, however much Americans may wish to do just that. American power is the ballast that keeps the world relatively stable. Because it is both very powerful and devoid of imperial ambition, there is no other state, consortium, or international institution that can replace it. This is what President Bill Clinton meant when he called America the indispensable nation. The locution sounded embarrassingly self-glorifying but in fact merely reflected his wonderment at discovering that he could not successfully offload Americas burdens onto the UN, as he attempted during his first term in office, when he sought to focus like a laser on the domestic economy. Despite Clintons epiphany, President Obama has sharply downsized Americas global role. It is said that the president is merely reflecting the national mood, but it is scarcely surprising that popular opinion is trending isolationist in the absence of a presidential summons to international action. Since the end of the Cold War, isolationism has been fed by two contradictory ideas: on the one hand, that America should not sully itself in a messy world; on the other, that America, itself, with its capitalism and its hyper power, is a bane to others. President Obama, whose intellectual origins were on the Left and who came to office criticizing his predecessors for insensitivity and arrogance, seems to embody the second of these two ideas, while his policy of disengagement draws support from a public more apt to believe the first of them. Of course, the important question, as always, is not an absolute choice between internationalism and isolationism but whether America can be active enough to forestall another cataclysmic event like 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. And if it is to serve our security in this respect, activism cannot be a goal in itself nor can it be random. It must be guided by an assessment of potential threats.
Today, one stands out, and that is radical Islam, or political Islam. This is a movement whose core goal is to mobilize the umma, the universe of believers, against the West. It also entails a call (often backed by harsh coercion) to stricter observance of the faith. But this in turn is motivated less by the fancy of saving souls, as in eras of Christian brutality, than by the conviction that the derogation from piety is the cause of the Muslims weakness vis--vis the infidel, and this weakness, conversely, is said to be the ultimate evidence of Allahs displeasure with the umma. Al-Qaedas attacks on America on 9/11 constituted the expression of this ideology most devastating to Americans. But the problem is much larger and potentially even more threatening. Political Islam aims to dominate the Muslim world. Whether it can succeed in this goal remains an open question. We might consider its progress to date in comparison to the history of the last movement that challenged Western civilization, Marxism. Born in the middle of the nineteenth century, this powerful ideology accumulated millions of adherents but really took off only after seventy years, when a Marxist movement seized Russia and harnessed the power of a great state to its revolutionary goals. For another thirty years, despite gathering momentum worldwide, it failed to gain sway beyond the borders of the USSR (and Mongolia) before finally exploding outward after World War II to gain power over one-third of humanity, nearly bringing the West to ruin. Political Islam is in an earlier stage of its trajectory. It was born with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in the 1920s (and also had separate roots in India), giving rise to a worldwide movement that took over its first important country, Iran, fifty years later. This gave a sense of momentum to political Islam everywhere, notwithstanding the divide between Shia and Sunnis. Only about one-fifth of the worlds Muslim-majority countries are electoral democracies, and the proportion is much smaller in the Middle East, but such elections as have been held in recent decades have consistently registered great strength for parties espousing political Islam, and opinion polling in countries without elections reveals similar public sentiment. True, support for the most violent and extreme versions of this philosophy is expressed by only a minority, but not a negligible one. Something like fifteen or twenty percent in many Muslim countries say they approve of al-Qaeda, or did of Osama Bin Laden when he was alive, which is often a larger share than express positive views of the US or its president. On the whole, political Islam commands more adherents globally than did Communism when it seized Russia or during the years that it constituted such a menace to civilization. And although it may represent only a minority, the dynamism of political Islam gives it an ability to dominate events at the expense of the silent majority, as exemplified by the conflict in Syria. There, a secular regime is heavily dependent on (Shiite) Islamist fighters from Lebanon and Iran, while an opposition movement, which is or was also predominantly secular, has been largely swallowed up by (Sunni) Islamist militants. The strength of political Islam has been all too evident since the Arab uprisings of 2011. The Muslim Brotherhood came to power briefly in Egypt, arguably the most important Sunni state if not quite the largest, and in Tunisia. It has suffered setbacks in both countries, but whether it can recoup and achieve similar gains in the surrounding countries remains an open question. Also, Turkey has gone Islamist. This is worrying not only because of its strategic weight but also because the secularizing legacy of Kemal Ataturk that Turkey appears to be shrugging off was the closest analog in Islam to the Enlightenment in the world of Christendom. Of course Ataturks greatness lay elsewhere than Voltaires, but the cardinal contribution of each was a radical assault on clerical authority.
Do we really have anything to fear from Turkeys ruling Justice and Development Party or Egypts Muslim Brotherhood or Tunisias Ennahda? Arent they moderates and isnt their moderation even, as some have suggested, the best antidote to immoderate Islamists like al- Qaeda? However moderate they may be, the essence of their ideology is a sense of grievance toward the West or at least of competition. Even if merely the latter, it is not to be satisfied by peaceful achievements any more than the Prophet Muhammad sought to demonstrate the superiority of his revelation by leading his disciples in outperforming the infidels in industry and learning. If political Islam comes to rule over a large part of the Muslim world, it will lead to wars, perhaps some among the believers as in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon today, and also between them and the non-Muslims. The terrorist wing of political Islam may not predominate, but it will flourish, battened on new resources. Al-Qaeda will grow, or there will be one, two, many al-Qaedas, to borrow a phrase from the Communists, and there will be more state-directed terrorism of the sort Iran has pioneered. All of this will be infinitely more terrible if political Islam comes to be armed with nuclear weapons, as President Obama seems ready to allow rather than break faith with his ideological conviction that Americas problems are overwhelmingly of its own making. An Iranian nuclear bomb need not be detonated to give a tremendous shot in the arm to militant Islam. The Middle Eastern cauldron, already hot, will boil more intensely, and in the end there will be another war, or wars, that we will look back on and see could have been averted, had we only acted earlier, with more wisdom, courage, and energy. Joshua Muravchik is a fellow at Johns Hopkins Universitys School of Advanced International Studies.
Protection Racket: Responsibility to Protect Becomes a Doctrine Joshua Muravchik NATOs deployment of air power against Muammar el-Qaddafis forces in Libya has been calledby some with hope, by others with alarmthe first exercise of the Responsibility to Protect. This new principle, which calls for international military action against genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, was endorsed at the 2005 high- level plenary meeting of the UN General Assembly. It is so contemporary that it has been given a textable, Tweetable acronymR2P. In truth, while it sounds cutting-edge, R2P has a pedigree that is old, some even say ancient. An acquaintance with this history is essential to assessing whether R2P is likely to prove a boon or a bane to the human condition and to American interestsor whether it is likely to make much difference at all. The more traditional name for this principle is humanitarian intervention. I first encountered it as a graduate assistant in the late 1970s. The professor for whom I worked, Georgetown Universitys much beloved William V. OBrien, was an expert on war, international law, and the relation between the two. The importance of the concept was that it legitimated the use of force under certain circumstances. International law is quite restrictive of the right of states to go to war, all the more so since the adoption of the UN Charter, which allows states to take military action only at the behest of the UN Security Council or in the exercise of individual or collective self-defense. Related Essay 1989 and 2011: Compare and Contrast Michael Zantovsky | ESSAY A comparison of the two great revolutions of our era illuminates the promise and sobering challenges ahead for the Arab Spring. But traditionally, authorities on international law had recognized another grounds for lawful war- making, humanitarian intervention. Scholars have identified expressions of this idea in texts as old as Hugo Grotiuss 1625 De Jure Belli ac Pacis , generally taken as the starting point of international law, and even in the writings of classical philosophers and theologians on whom Grotius and his co-thinkers drew. The concept was not hard to grasp. Although sovereignty has been a powerful principle of international law at least since the birth of the state system, moral intuition suggested that it could not be absolute. When a governments depredations against its own subjects far exceeded the level of brutality that is all too common, then it in effect forfeited its sovereignty and others might rightfully send combatants to protect the victims. No one ever succeeded in defining the threshold, but no one doubted that it existed. Who would have objected to forceful action to stop Hitlers Holocaust of the Jews or Pol Pots auto-genocide of the Khmer on the grounds that foreign intervention was illegal? But of course no one did intervene to save the Jews or the Khmer. This was not only tragic; it also created a legal question. Those who asserted that such a provision existedand they included L.F.L. Oppenheim, Hersch Lauterpacht, and other of the most luminary names in the field of international lawheld it to be part of customary law. (Custom, which is roughly analogous to common law within the British legal tradition, is a major source of international law.) My Georgetown mentor William OBrien, however, writing on the laws of war, was not convinced. He pointed out that custom self-evidently derives from what states actually donot from what many think they ought to have done but failed to do. To test his skepticism against the opinions of those who propounded the tenet, he tasked me with searching for concrete examples of humanitarian intervention. The contemporary literature on the subject mostly pointed to one latter-day instance. During the Congo crisis of the early 1960s, a joint American-Belgian task force was airlifted in to rescue Westerners who were being held hostage. This was not very satisfying. The extrication of white people from African mayhem did not make a uniquely morally compelling tale. And the number of lives at stakejust shy of a thousandwas not on the order of the Holocaust or Pol Pots rampage. The same number of blacks might vanish in an episode of African fratricide any week of the year without outsiders taking much notice. OBrien and I thought we had at last hit upon a more solid example in another African event, the 1979 overthrow of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin Dada by the army of neighboring Tanzania. Even by the standards of a day when all of Africa groaned under the dictatorial rule of so-called big men, Amins bloody reign stood out. He is estimated to have executed one hundred thousand of his countrymen; and reportedly tortured to death Ugandas Anglican archbishop with his own handseven, by some accounts, feasting on the remains. However, when I interviewed officials of Tanzanias embassy in Washington, they were adamant that their forces had ousted Amin because of the invasion of Tanzanian territory by his soldiers, which had in fact occurred. They insisted that their government had not acted against Amin due to his cruelties against his own people and that it would not have done so since it was faithful to the central principle of the Organization of African Unity (later succeeded by the African Union) of absolute non-interference in one anothers internal affairs, a policy in which each of these autocracies had an obvious self-interest. Our quest having proved fruitless, OBrien treated the matter with scholarly skepticism in the book he was writing. The need for humanitarian intervention to save a people from its own government has not coincided with the availability of a power or group of powers capable and willing to intervene, he said, which made the whole concept problematic.
The situation changed, however, over the next two decades, in ways that led to the emergence of R2P as a principle of US foreign policy. In 1986, the US Senate gave its consent to ratification of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which had come into force among other nations some decades earlier. It bound signatories to undertake to prevent and to punish genocide. This meant that at least in some instances, humanitarian intervention might be based on something stronger than customary law, namely, treaty obligation. It gave the whole matter more weight. A second, more momentous changethe ending of the Cold War in 1989made humanitarian interventions more feasible. During the Cold War, any movement of military forces into a new territory by one superpower, whatever the reason or pretext, was seen by the other as the ominous advance of a pawn on the global chessboard. At a minimum, it heightened tensions, and often it provoked a counter-response. Now there was greater freedom of action, and for the United States the demands of national security felt less urgent. No longer burdened by the exigencies of parrying an existential threat from the Soviets, America could give greater rein to its moral sensibilities. Crises that engaged Americas values or principles more than its security took center stage in international politics for a stretch of years in the 1990s when Yugoslavia disintegrated, famine overtook Somalia, and inter-tribal bloodletting reached epic proportions in Rwanda. The latter two posed only humanitarian concerns, while the Yugoslav case entwined these with more practical ones. Serbias attacks on Slovenia, Croatia, and especially Bosnia-Herzegovina challenged a basic rule against cross-border aggression in which America (and others) had a security stake, the same rule that had been invoked against Iraqs invasion of Kuwait, while the mass murder and rape of civilians added moral issues. President Bill Clinton, eager to focus like a laser on the domestic economy during his first term, deferred to the UN to handle these crises. In the end, both the world body and Washington covered themselves in shame by their ineptitude and lack of urgency in the face of wholesale atrocities, preparing the ground from which R2P sprung. The Somalia events had sprung from the decision of Clintons predecessor, George H. W. Bush, in his last days in office, to send Marines to stem a famine in that country that had been caused less by natural events than by the disappearance of law and order and the commandeering of food by armed gangs. The Americans set up well-protected feeding stations and saved perhaps a million lives. But this left the question of how they could extricate themselves without tragedy returning. The UN decided on an ambitious nation-building project and persuaded Clinton to leave several thousand US soldiers in the country as the backbone of a UN force to shield it. When, in October 1993, eighteen US Army Rangers were killed in a shootout in Mogadishu, the president, at a loss to explain to the public why US forces were in combat in Somalia, ordered a hasty withdrawal. Six months later, ethnic strife in Rwanda exploded into the first unambiguous episode of genocide since the Holocaust. Rather than reinforce UN peacekeepers stationed in the country due to earlier outbreaks of violence, UN officials encouraged them to flee. When some Security Council members sought action to stanch the bloodshed, the US took the lead in blocking it. Once he had left office, Clinton offered the lamest of apologies to Rwanda. The international community...must bear its share of responsibility for this tragedy, he said, without acknowledging that in this case the international community was first and foremost himself. He had even gone so far as to order members of his administration to avoid using the word genocide while the Rwanda killings were under way, lest this invoke Americas obligation under the genocide convention to attempt to prevent it. As a result, administration representatives would only reluctantly concede that acts of genocide may have occurred. When war had broken out in Bosnia-Herzegovina in April 1992, President Bush had called it a hiccup and sat on his hands. As a candidate, Clinton criticized this policy, but as president he continued it. The UN role actually made things worse. The Muslim victims of ethnic cleansing at Serb hands were invited to take refuge in six safe areas under UN protection, provided they turned over their weapons. One of these was Srebrenica, which was overrun by Serb forces in July 1995. As the Serbs moved in, UN forces refused to protect the Muslims or to return their guns so they could try to protect themselves. Some seven or eight thousand males of or near military age were rounded up and slaughtered en masse, the only such massacre in Europe since World War II. This prompted Clinton finally to order air strikes, which ended the war quickly and easily. Embarrassed by the long delay in taking action in Bosnia, during which 100,000 to 250,000 people, mostly civilians, had perished, and alarmed by the strains the situation had caused within NATO, Washington and its European allies responded with alacrity when Kosovo heated up in 1998. A bombing campaign forced the withdrawal of Serb forces. NATOs action may have been morally justifiable, but it had no plausible basis in international law. The use of force had not been approved by the Security Council because Moscow, which holds a veto, stood with Belgrade. Absent a Security Council vote, military action can sometimes be legitimated under the rubric of collective self-defense, but unlike Bosnia-Herzegovina, which was an independent country, Kosovo was indisputably a province of Serbia, so no issue of cross- border aggression arose. A few NATO governments, but not most, justified their offensive as an exercise in humanitarian intervention, but this stretched the concept beyond all meaning. There is no doubt that Serbs persecuted the Albanian population of Kosovo, but persecution occurs in many places. The number of Albanians killed by Serbs by the time the bombing began probably did not exceed double digits. Tragic though it was, this did not nearly rise to the extraordinary level of violence that had always been seen as the threshold for humanitarian intervention. Without any legal right, NATO acted above all out of the regret that it had failed to act in the earlier crises in Bosnia-Herzegovina and in Rwanda. Unease over what was done in Kosovoand done or not done in Bosnia, Rwanda, and Somalia prompted the government of Canada, with backing from UN officials and funding from major foundations, to create an International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty. Its deliberations fructified in a report issued in December 2001 that coined the term Responsibility to Protect. This in turn was incorporated in the recommendations released in 2004 of the so- called High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, appointed by then Secretary General Kofi Annan to spearhead UN reform. This was then codified the following year at a special meeting of the General Assembly, the world summit.
For some American liberals, and no doubt for like-minded Europeans, the embrace of humanitarian intervention, now rechristened as Responsibility to Protect, appeared to entail some paradoxical reasoning. During the humanitarian crises of the early 1990s, three schools of thought could be discerned. One, composed mostly of neoconservatives, advocated armed intervention. Another, composed mostly of more traditional conservatives, opposed involvement on the grounds that our sentiments might be touched but our interests were not. A third group, mostly liberals, wanted to do something to stop the bloodshed but were chary of the use of force. In the years following the crises, this last group exhibited second thoughts, as exemplified by Clintons Rwanda apology. Without abandoning wholesale their distrust of military action, some of these liberals seemed now to feel more comfortable with war for humanitarian ends than for national self-interest which, as they see it, can too easily slide into self-aggrandizement (a distrust of American purposes that still lingers from Vietnam). It was these voices, exemplified by Samantha Power, author of a widely acclaimed book about genocide who now serves on the staff of the National Security Council, who were seen to have triumphed over the realists in the Obama administration in persuading the president to undertake the Libya mission. However, the self-doubt that seems to inhere in liberal hawkishness was expressed in Obamas decision to end US participation in the Libya bombing campaign, in favor of NATO, almost before it had begun. Moreover, the embrace of humanitarian intervention still left the newly fledged liberal hawksor if not them, then their foreign counterpartsuneasy on one score. The only country with the capacity to use force decisively in most violent crises was the United States. Was Washington now to be given a free hand in the name of humanitarianism? Might not Americas war hawks exploit such a loophole for their own purposes? Ironically, even as the end of the Cold War had allowed greater focus on humanitarian crises, it had also stoked dismay over American power. Throughout the Cold War, Western Europe and many countries elsewhere had sheltered under that power against the depredations of the Soviet Union and its surrogates. When the sudden Soviet collapse created a unipolar world, America was no longer needed as a protector, and Americas singular status began to seem ominous, even to allies. Hubert Vdrine, French foreign minister, coined the term hyper-puissance to liken the muscularity of the US to a malady of international politics. The Americans, in the absence of limits put to them by anybody or anything, act as if they own a kind of blank check in their McWorld, wrote Germanys leading magazine, Der Spiegel . These anxieties gave rise to insistent demands from statesmen and commentators for obedience to the principle that the use of force always required the approval of the Security Council. In Kosovo in 1998, this issue was ignored by some of these selfsame luminaries. But it was asserted afresh in 2002 in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq by America and its allies, an invasion that was branded illegal by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan because it had proceeded in the absence of such approval. Thus, in enshrining the principle of R2P, the UN world summit affirmed that any such action must be taken through the Security Council, thereby safeguarding the world against any self- appointed policing on the part of the United States. There is, however, a deep problem with the UN Charters conferral on the Security Council of a monopoly of the rightful use of force. The Charter creates a kind of social compact among nations, analogous to the compact among individuals in Lockean political philosophy. Under article 2.4, which outlaws the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, members forgo the autonomy of action they enjoyed under customary law in exchange for the protection they will receive from the Security Council. That protection, as spelled out in chapter 7 of the Charter, will be furnished by a massive international military apparatus the Security Council will deploy against any miscreant state that threatens or attacks another. But this entire apparatus is a mirage. The only two occasions in the UNs sixty-six-year history on which it performed the function envisioned as its main purpose, that is, to thwart an aggressor, were in Korea in 1950 and in Kuwait in 1991. On both occasions, the Security Council, having no forces of its own, invited members to form a posse under the leadership of the United States. In effect, it acted under article 51, which acknowledges the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense. This article was designed for occasions when the Security Council fails to act. Yet it turned out to be the only article under which it could act. What clearer confession could there be that the compact at the heart of the Charter is broken? Thus, to repose all authority for the use of force in the Security Council is absurd and dangerous. This applies to humanitarian disasters as well as breaches of the peace. The UN was deeply involved in Somalia, Rwanda, and Yugoslavia, and its actions mostly made things worse. This prompted Kofi Annan, who headed the bodys peacekeeping department during these crises before rising to become secretary general, to declaim: Peacekeepers must never again be deployed into an environment in which there is no cease-fire or peace agreement. In other words, UN forces might play a post-conflict role in restoring normalcy but are generally helpless where one party or another wants to continue killing.
Does the UN Security Councils authorization of NATOs air campaign over Libya give grounds for revising this assessment? Does it establish a precedent that is likely to be followed by other life-saving interventions under UN aegis? The answer is no. The cardinal feature of the Libyan episode is that Qaddafi is a nut job who has alienated almost all governments except a few in Africa that he has bribed but that wield little clout. The clearest measure of Qaddafis extraordinary isolation was the unprecedented resolution of the Arab League endorsing intervention in Libya, which paved the way for the Security Councils vote. But when Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, no less a tyrant than Qaddafi, sent tanks and snipers into cities to mow down hundreds of peaceful demonstrators, the Arab League endorsed his action and the Security Council refused to pass so much as a resolution offering mere verbal condemnation. It is hard to think of regimes as friendless as Qaddafis. Perhaps that of North Korea, but since it has nuclear bombs and an ally in Beijing, no action is contemplated even though the Kims have far exceeded Qaddafi in abusing their own subjects. The military junta that rules Burma has been widely criticized, but its fellow members of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, generally coddle it, and military intervention was never considered when it slaughtered Buddhist monks marching peacefully in 2007. In short, the Libyan case will prove no more of a precedent than the Security Councils authorization of the use of force against North Korea in 1950, thanks to an ill-conceived boycott by the Soviet delegate who thus was unable to cast a veto. The UN cover was handy, but the United States would have fought to defend South Korea regardless, probably joined by the same collection of allies. R2P at best will be a flawed principle of moral action because it cannot be applied even-handedly. No matter what the regime in Beijing, for example, does to its own citizens, the use of outside military force to protect them is unimaginable. Who will invade China? Nonetheless, for this principle to deserve to be taken seriously, it should be applied as uniformly as possible. The situation in Syria is not the same as in Libya: for one thing, the Syrian people have not called for outside armed help. But if Assad goes on a mass killing spree (as his father did in the city of Hamma in 1982) and the Syrian dissidents do call for outside help, then what? It is likely that the Obama administration would shed its perverse solicitude for that regime. But it is inconceivable that the UNi.e., Moscow and Beijingwould. The world has mostly enjoyed peace since 1945, but that owes nothing to the UN and everything to American power, exercised mostly in the form of guarantees to Japan, NATO, and other allies, rather than in shooting wars. In this era when violence within states is far more common than between them, cases of extreme abuse will sometimes cry out for outside intervention. But the traditional doctrine of humanitarian intervention, invoked by the United States and other democracies at their own discretion, is likely to offer a more usable basis for such action than the shiny new version called R2P, which places all authority in the paralytic hands of the United Nations Security Council.
Joshua Muravchik is a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. His upcoming book, How the World Turned Against Israel Americas Purpose and Role in a Changed World Michael Zantovsky
It is not a new observation that, just as the twentieth century started late, with the shots in Sarajevo, so did the twenty-first century, with the September 11th attacks. Compared to the conflagration that followed the first event, whose centennial this year is a welcome opportunity for some belated soul-searching, the bloodshed that started with the second event has been limited, but its consequences may have been just as profound. The two American administrations that inherited the postSeptember 11th world have since struggled, along with the rest of the world, with the consequences. One chose to confront the evil head-on, in order to eradicate its sources and deter its repetition, with mixed results. The other largely opted for seeing and hearing little evil, with results that the jury is still out considering. Any rational analysis or critique of the foreign policy of the current US administration must thus of necessity start with its predecessor. Crusades, and there is little doubt that this was how President George W. Bush viewed his mission in history, invariably fail, and always for the same reasons. There is no clean way of dealing with evil. The more brutal it is, the more brutal the means that need to be used to vanquish it. Second, people, being people, cannot help but introduce their own motives, interests, and biases into what had originally been a struggle of values and principles, thus undermining their claim to moral high ground. Third, genuine regime change can only come from within. A change engineered or imposed from the outside almost always backfires. One of the possible reactions to such perceived difficulties in fighting evil and terror is the denial of their existence. If what had been considered as evil is instead seen as an expression of an alternative view of the world, co-equal with ours, or at worst a narrow criminal conspiracy, then much of its threat and the urgency to fight disappears. Related Essay
The Uncertainty of Freedom Michael Zantovsky | ESSAY Questions about law and freedom have haunted societies for centuries, and as past thinkers have concluded, self- limitation seems to be essential to living in a world that prizes both. Over the last ten years, Americans have had an opportunity to examine the costs and benefits of the war on terror and the outlay of funds and energy on a global scale, and many have concluded that they are not worth the effort and sacrifices. Battle fatigue has set in and moral doubts obscured the clarity of purpose. It almost feels as if the trajectory of the war on terror followed that of the war on drugs. The doubters are right in that terror, like drugs, cannot be eradicated by military means. But the conclusion that many of them have drawn, namely that the lack of convincing success in fighting terror points to a deeper moral flaw in Americas treatment of the rest of the world, does not necessarily follow. The choice is not simply between imposing American will on the rest of the world, by force if need be, and withdrawing from the world. Americas economic, political, and military strength, still preeminent in a number of areas, provides it with a whole range of options, a number of which may coincide with both American interests and those of the rest of the world. It is exactly such commonality of interest and the ensuing commonality of action that seems to be lacking as an explicit factor in the design and conduct of the American foreign policy. The attacks of September 11th were clearly aimed not just against two buildings in the commercial and cultural capital of the United States, and at least one other in its political capital, or even against the United States itself, but against a way of life, a culture and a civilization, that together comprise the West. The shock of the onslaught drove the message home with the kind of crystal clarity that is usually in short supply in the deliberations of politicians and diplomats. It only took a day for the NATO alliance to declare, on September 12, 2001: If it is determined that this attack was directed from abroad against the United States, it shall be regarded as an action covered by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, i.e., as an attack against the West as a whole. Unlike on other occasions in NATO history, this was not a statement requested or solicited by the United States, but a spontaneous expression of solidarity on the part of the allies. The reaction of the United States was an underwhelming Dont call us, well call you. Instead of reinforcing the unity of the alliance in the face of an outrageous attack against one of its members, the American reluctance, understandable as it may have been, to wage the war on terror by committee, which had been the less than efficient but ultimately effective way to end the war in Yugoslavia and to dislodge Slobodan Milosevic from Kosovo, led to the gradual dissipation of NATO s unity, ending in the bitter aftertaste of Iraq. The trauma of the September 11th atrocity may partly explain the tendency to go it alone, as if the wounded warrior felt the need to counter the blow unassisted in some kind of ritual exorcism. The false certainty provided by the unipolar momentan inherently unstable notion, for it tends to vanish the moment it is formulated and paraded aroundmay have been another reason. It is more difficult to understand why the current administration, which identified and criticized this fatal flaw in dealing with the rest of the world, did little to address and correct it. Instead of aiming, rightly, for a NATO-wide concept of missile defense in lieu of the unpopular and divisive Bush administration plan, it came up with the equally unilateral and not visibly more popular Phased Adaptive Approach. Instead of trying to devise a new collective policy of the Atlantic Alliance toward Russia, one that would reflect both the cooperative and competitive aspects of this crucially important relationship, even more so for Europe than the United States, it opted for a reset in the hope that the areas of friction and disagreement would go away. Instead they multiplied. As the events in Ukraine unfold in what may yet become the most serious crisis of the postCold War era, there is no sign of a unified Western posture suited to its various contingencies. For some reason, the American foreign policy establishment had chosen to disregard the lessons of the 1980s and 1990s, the period of some of its major achievements. This is especially puzzling given the strong personal links between the foreign policy principals in the years that followed, as the son of a president became commander in chief, and then the wife of a president became secretary of state.
The lessons of the last ten years are quite simple. Even a major superpower has to base its policies on a broader alliance. While this may only marginally contribute to its military strengths, it provides a formidable political and moral base, shielding the leading power from accusations of pursuing its own selfish interests at the expense of everyone elses. At the same time, it provides a check of sorts on its instinct to use the power at its disposal in an unrestrained way. Given the diverse and complementary historical records of the allies, it also gives it access to a body of knowledge about foreign lands, cultures, and psychologies, something that has not always been its strongest suit. The pivot to Asia may stem from worthy and timely considerations. The balance of power, economic in particular, is undeniably shifting, and a responsible power must reflect it in its policy. It is, however, worth keeping in mind what fruits the United States can hope to reap from this endeavor and what may remain beyond its reach. While it may find new markets, new clients, new partners and along with them unavoidably encounter new risks and threats, it may find it not all that easy to discover new allies. Working together with others will be crucial in coping with the new risks and threats on the horizon. The cyber risk has been around for a few years, but so far its impact has been limited. It has apparently been deployed by both state and non-state agents to infiltrate or disrupt communications, and economic, financial, or industrial infrastructure. There is, however, little doubt that a further weaponization of cyber tools to attack people and their lives is entirely possible. It is clear that no country can successfully prevent such attacks on its own. Broad international cooperation is needed, but it is only genuinely possible between countries with compatible standards of security, rule of law, and civilian oversight over military and intelligence operations. In the absence of trust based on these principles, the dividing line between cooperation and infiltration becomes blurred and intelligence sharing risky. Risks of a non-military nature cannot and should not be countered by military means. That does not necessarily mean they are less serious. To preserve an open society living in freedom and security is without question a fundamental national interest of the United States. Nevertheless, a large part of the world does not seem to share the same ideas of openness and would gladly do without some of the liberties enjoyed by citizens of the West. Withdrawing into a Fortress America to safeguard these liberties would by definition deprive the United States of an important dimension of the very openness it aims to protect. Once again, an international alliance of like-minded nations sharing the same values and interests seems to be a necessity. The big question underneath the uncertainty regarding the current US posture in the world is whether the self-identification of the United States as a part of the West still has some validity. The same consideration naturally holds for the rest of the West, and for the concept of the West as such. It cannot be too often repeated that what used to hold the West together was not just a common threat it faced but the views of social, economic, and political organization it shared. In the end, alliances, like states, survive by the ideas they were founded upon. From the outside observers point of view, the purpose of America is neither to go abroad in search of monsters to destroy nor to rest content with her heart, her benedictions, and her prayers. It is to work with others to provide a model and a source of effective support for places where the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled and in doing so to make sure that Americas own standard will continue to fly high. , wll come out next year. Learning Curve: American Culture and the Muslim World Peter Skerry As Americans struggle to confront economic and fiscal dilemmas at home, we are also reexamining our role as the lone global superpower. As we do so, one of our most elusive challenges is coming to terms with the cultural dimension of our engagement with the Muslim world. This is in part because cultural forces are downplayed or ignored by our intellectual and foreign policy elites. This neglect is regrettable, for while there are aspects of American culture that Muslims find problematic, or even repellant, there are others that they findor might find, if made awareappealing, even admirable.
Both Sides of the Coin . Even as high unemployment, slow growth, and skyrocketing public debt demand our attention, we must recognize that we are dealing not merely with an economic system but with the beliefs and values on which it is based, which constitute a way of life. Many Americans, along with our friends and enemies overseas, routinely attribute our continuing economic predicament to our acquisitiveness. Indeed, many believe that the true source of Americas quest for global dominance, however chastened it may be at the moment, is our inordinate appetite for material possessions and pleasures. But even if this were true, would it be, as we so often hear, simply a matter of greed? First, it must be acknowledged that Americans enormous consumer wants and our willingness to go into household debt to satisfy them distinguish us from most other advanced industrial democracies. But if we stop to examine the origins of the present economic crisis, it arises in part from otherwise laudable efforts to satisfy the aspirations of economically marginal African Americans and Hispanic immigrants to become homeowners. Indeed, the specific goal of increasing minority home ownership was a critical component of the rationale for the policies and institutional arrangements that got us into the present mess. Put differently, the greed of investors was gratified in part by an effort to promote what was viewed by Republicans and Democrats alike as a laudable social policy goal, even as social justice. Many would prefer to forget this today, but during the 1990s and well into the first decade of the new century, those who cautioned against increasing reliance on the sub-prime mortgages that were being marketed to economically marginal home-buyers risked being accused of indifference toward those struggling to achieve the American Dream. In some instances, such skeptics were even accused of racism. Related Essay Continental Divide: Immigration and the New European Right John Rosenthal | ESSAY Right-wing politics in Europe aren't as reactionary as they've been made out to be. Once the financial system sustained by those practices and institutions came crashing down, it has been these same economically marginal families who have been suffering the most. It would of course be naive to deny that the aspirations of such individuals were at times tainted by poor judgment and excess. Nevertheless, pointing out that immigrant and minority aspirations contributed to the debacle should in no way be interpreted as blaming those who have lost their homes. Without a doubt, primary responsibility for our current situation lies with the investors who exploited those aspirations and with the government officials whose lax oversight allowed them to take huge financial risks with borrowed assets. The point is subtle but critical. Our present predicament illustrates how the extraordinary dynamism and openness of American society are sustained by our peoples appetite for material advancement. Opportunities for the rich to grow richer both encourage and permit the non-rich to move upand perhaps grow rich themselves. In no small way, American ideals of equal opportunity and social equality depend on our acquisitiveness, even on our greed. This of course is no original insight; it was the preoccupation of eighteenth-century moral philosophy. But as is often the case, the insights of philosophers are overlooked just when they can be most helpful. Yet if we are guilty of greed, it is not simply greed for things. We are also a restless people who crave openness and new experiences. We are greedy for what have come to be called lifestyle optionswhether in terms of alcohol and drugs, sexual partners and practices, pregnancy decisions, familial and child-rearing arrangements, and so on. Some libertarians understand how our economic freedoms and cultural liberties are linked, and defend both as two sides of the same coin. Yet most Americans have difficulty seeing this, and todays polarization of our politics further distorts their view. Liberals and leftists denounce the market for undermining community bonds. Conservatives denounce the lefts cultural agenda for its self-indulgence and hedonistic individualism. The left regards dependence on oil as a sign of profligacy; the right sees easy access to abortion as an indicator of decadence, even depravity.
The Waters Edge . We Americans may not appreciate how such fundamental disagreements, which have rent our culture and politics for decades, can be seen as different facets of a coherent whole. But this is precisely how many Muslimsfriendly and unfriendly, here and abroad perceive Americas internal cultural conflicts. In their eyes, Americans may disagree about particulars, but we are united in our preoccupation with unfettered, acquisitive individualism. It is, of course, hardly surprising that Americans fail to grasp this broader view of our culture wars. These are our culture wars, after all, and we have been fighting them in a characteristically self-absorbed way. Yet this is not the whole story. Since 9/11, Americans have taken some tentative steps toward muting our disagreements and presenting a united front when we turn our attention overseas, especially toward an enemy who defines himself in fundamentalist religious terms. To be sure, controversies over abortion and gay marriage continue, but less intensely than before. This may in part be attributable to economic conditions. In any event, just as Muslims have come together to defend themselves from criticism and attack from non-Muslims, so too have Americans closed ranks vis--vis Muslims. Partisan bickering might not stop at the waters edge any more, but the culture wars do, for the most part. Conservatives who launched broadsides against the excesses of American culture in the 1990s now mount the barricades to defend its virtuesagainst the practices and criticisms of Muslims, who all along have been troubled by those same excesses. The ironies here are too numerous to count. The most glaring is that conservatives who just a few years ago roundly criticized the feminist movement and routinely dismissed womens rights as the leading edge of a troubling liberationist agenda now loudly and insistently criticize Islams failure to advance gender equality. Yet in our preoccupation with how Muslim societies treat women, we turn a blind eye to how our own liberal values have fostered a commercialized culture that condones and even glorifies sexual promiscuity and pornography that denigrate womenand men. These powerful forces that we have helped unleash on the world are one reason why many Muslim women seek refuge in Islamic modesty, including the head scarf. Of course, promiscuity and pornography offend and alarm many Americans. Yet when we turn our attention overseas, we uncritically close ranks and defend our way of lifemuch as Muslim societies have.
Taking Culture Off the Table . That Americans should have achieved some unity in an era of polarization by focusing on an external foe should come as no surprise. Yet it is surprising, and especially worthy of note, that we have for a variety of reasons persuaded ourselves that our differences with Islam are not cultural in any important sense. With regard to gender equality, for example, we consider it not so much a cultural value to be encouraged as a human right to be secured. This perspective is epitomized in a 2007 study from the RAND Corporation. Building Moderate Muslim Networks specifically equates gender equality with freedom of worship and designates both as internationally recognized human rights. Here as elsewhere in contemporary discourse, human rightswhose infringement on account of societal, cultural, or political conditions is presumptively impermissibleare asserted without any elaboration or justification. This is a complicated and controversial topic that cannot be fully explored here. My point is simply to highlight this resort to the language of rights as a salient example of how Americans sidestep the cultural dimension when we turn our attention to the Muslim world. Another such example is the tendency, particularly on the part of neoconservatives, to interpret the American encounter with radical Islamists through the lens of the Cold War, and insist that we are now engaged in a war with Islamo-Fascism. Muslims hate this term, but there is some merit to it. As in the Cold War, todays struggle is being pursued incrementally, over a protracted period of time, without the sustained engagement of huge armed forces. And as Francis Fukuyama, among others, has pointed out, extremist Islamists are driven less by religion than by a modern ideology that has clear affinities with communism and fascism. Yet despite such similarities, the most critical distinction between the Cold War and todays struggle is that the latter has a substantial cultural component. Indeed, Americas contests against fascism and communism were waged against adversaries who shared our Enlightenment heritage, albeit in perverted forms. Today, we confront enemies who emerge from a distinctive civilization that is not Western and that in fact has a long history of rivalry, contention, and conflict with the West. The implications of such a cultural perspective are varied and vital. To begin, cultural conflicts are arguably more wrenchingpersonally and societallythan ideological ones. Consider, for example, the difference between the apostasy of a Communist such as Whittaker Chambers and that of a Muslim such as Ayaan Hirsi Ali. While the former clearly pursued a painful and bitter path, sundering ideological ties with, and then exposing, old comrades, the pain and complexity of that experience must pale in comparison with the latters renunciation and condemnation of the foundational beliefs and practices of her family going as far back as memory itself. Such treacherous shoals are undoubtedly one reason why our leaders insist that we are not engaged in any such cultural conflict with Islam. Yet such an assertion hardly seems credible. Recall that Americas fiscal and economic crises are rooted in our valuessome admirable, others not. Taken together, they constitute our way of life. This is certainly how Islamist extremists see it. But so do many ordinary, law-abiding Muslims who are mindful, though perhaps themselves not always observant, of Islamic principles of thrift and self-restraint. America is not at war with Islam. Nor is there any unified, global Muslim community that confronts usno matter how often Muslims invoke precisely that notion when they refer to the ummah . Nevertheless, our sometimes violent struggle with extremist Muslims is being fought on cultural terrainand being watched by a vast audience of non-extremist but culturally conservative Muslims who are keeping close track not only of who is winning but also of how Americans are waging the battle. Those who cavil at such a cultural interpretation of the present struggle should stop to consider why gender equality in Muslim societies (albeit under the rubric of human rights) gets raised by non-Muslims so quickly and so often. Or why many Muslims are so averse to our popular music and figurative art. Or why the Muslim world is so profoundly hostile to any hint of open homosexuality. Such issues clearly loom large for many non-Muslims, as well as for most Muslims. Why then do Americas political and intellectual elites habitually relegate culture to the background of contemporary discussions? One answer is that the mere mention of culture raises the specter of Samuel Huntingtons clash of civilizations thesis. Indeed, most academics and analysts reject Huntingtons emphasis on the importance of culture in global politicsa backlash that he himself helped to provoke when, in support of his thesis, he bluntly asserted that it is human to hate. Huntingtons point, of course, is that cultural conflicts are nasty and intractable, especially in this postCold War era. Yet he did not welcome such conflicts, nor did he regard them as inevitable. Indeed, Huntington opposed the US invasion of Iraq, a fact overlooked by critics who incorrectly associate him with that wars neoconservative proponents. Another response is that long before Huntington advanced his controversial thesis, social scientists were vigorously rejecting cultural explanations of human affairs, particularly those having to do with religion, as a valid basis of action or of analysis. Academics and intellectuals have identified this perspective as essentialist, by which they mean the imputation of inherent or unchanging traits to groups, especially disadvantaged or marginal groups. The concern is that such groups will come to be seen as unresponsive to meliorative public policies, thereby fueling negative stereotypes and aiding conservative or reactionary political forces. In contrast, environmental or social structural perspectives have been seen as progressive, on the dubious assumption that such factors are more susceptible to governmental interventions.
Our Cultural Blindspots . The consequences of disregarding the cultural dimensions of Americas contemporary encounter with Islam are considerable. One such is a failure to reckon with the global impact of our own cultural footprint, which is arguably just as significant as those left by our economy and military. Yet apart from advocates of so-called soft power, few of us seem to appreciate this. A disturbing example emerged from the shocking behavior of American military personnel in Iraq at Abu Ghraib prison. While most Americans regarded this as a nationally embarrassing episode of abuse and torture, John Agresto, an American educator who served in Iraq under Ambassador Paul Bremer as senior adviser to the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, offers a strikingly different interpretation. In his book, Mugged by Reality: The Liberation of Iraq and the Failure of Good Intentions , Agresto draws on his conversations and experiences in post-invasion Iraq to show that Iraqis were hardly surprised by the egregious behavior at Abu Ghraib. He quotes his Iraqi translator: We are a cruel people. Its in our DNA. But then Agresto makes a point lost on many Americans: It wasnt the revelations of torture, as such, that so troubled Iraqis...it was the character and sexual nature of these abuses. He elaborates: Abu Ghraib displayed not only Americans abandonment to perverse sexuality, up to and including homoerotic sadism, but also the willingness of American females to be photographed sexually abusing naked men, and the joy that they all seemed to display at not only degrading Iraqis but at degrading their own natures as well. Agresto goes on to characterize the Iraqi perspective: Abu Ghraib looked less like severe treatment of detainees in order to wrest important information from them as much as it seemed depraved fun and sexual games . . . To a people told by our enemies that modernity stands for indulgence and the loosening of our moral rules, that America is a perverse and hedonistic culture, that liberty is libertinism and anarchy, and that our secularism is really nothing but irreligion and an affront to God, Abu Ghraib was a gift to our enemies and an utter disaster for America and its friends. In the understandably outraged commentary on Abu Ghraib here in the United States, the emphasis was just the reverse. That is, Americans were much more focused on this episode as an example of abuse and torture, while relegating the specifically sexual nature of many of the misdeeds to the background. Ironically, the US military seems to have figured out the crucial importance of culture sooner than many of our other institutions. Confronting failure in Iraq and Afghanistan, our military leaders have determined that victory is not simply a matter of applying overwhelming force against the enemy, but also of winning hearts and minds among civilians. To do this, soldiers need to understand the values and culture of those populations. Thats why the military has reformulated counterinsurgency doctrine and made efforts to employ social scientists, especially anthropologists. As we saw with the Awakening initiative in Iraqs Anbar Province, this approach means working with erstwhile enemies in order to enlist them in the fight against more implacable foes. Most recently, the Obama administration has been implementing elements of this same strategy on the very different physical and cultural terrain of Afghanistan. But ignoring the cultural basis of Americas encounter with Islam has had another unfortunate result. We have obscured from our own view critical differences between the United States and Europe. Ironically, these underscore how much better suited we are than our friends and allies across the Atlantic to address the cultural concerns of Muslims around the world. Not only are we more tolerant and open to newcomers than just about any European nation, we lack the strident, full-throated secularism that in Europe has successfully contained religions role in public life and consequently marginalized and alienated many Muslims. Muslims here in the United States appreciate this difference, but Muslims elsewhere are barely aware of it. Yet such vital topics do not get the attention they merit, because it has been determined that we are not engaged in a cultural contest with Islam. One final consequence of side-stepping cultural factors is to obscure commonalities across the three Abrahamic faiths. To be sure, such similarities get highlighted in myriad interfaith dialogues, but in the wider, less cloistered public square, the tone is quite different. Listening to commentators there, one would never know that within living memory, Jewish women were confined to the balconies of synagogues (and in some Hassidic sects today still are rigidly segregated); Catholics abstained from meat on Fridays and routinely fasted during Lent; mainstream Protestants denounced gambling and drinking; and Americans accepted, by and large, a constitutional amendment prohibiting the manufacture, sale, and distribution of alcoholic beverages. More generally, one would never suspect that there was a time when Protestants, Catholics, and Jews all taught the virtues of self-restraint in the social, economic, and cultural spheres of life in a way not dissimilar from contemporary Islam. To be sure, there are critical differences of culture, history, and theology across Islam, Christianity, and Judaism. But there are also some affinities that invite Americans to put ourselves in the place of contemporary Muslimsnot out of misguided guilt, but out of curiosity and a sense of urgency. Curiosity about how many Muslims see contemporary American life as wasteful, exhibitionist, and self-indulgent, given that it was not so long ago that Americans valued thrift, reserve, and restraint. And urgency because only through such honest and fulsome exploration will we build genuine bridges of understanding and trust between Muslims and non- Muslims. I am not suggesting the kind of interfaith dialogue that fatuously asserts common values while lacking the hard-headedness necessary to address fundamental differences. Nor am I suggesting that we focus on building friendships in the Muslim world. It is always desirable to have friends, but friendship can hardly be our primary goal. Right now, we Americans need to identify commonalities with Muslimsnot just of history and background but ofinterest . In this vein, Americans must abandon, whether at home or abroad, the fruitless and demeaning search for so-called moderate Muslims. Such Muslims do not really existnot because all Muslims are extremists or terrorists, but because their cultural premises diverge so sharply from our own. A far more promising approach has been suggested by sociologist Amitai Etzioni, who argues that we be less preoccupied with Muslims who agree with us than with those who are pragmatically willing to engage with us. Again, the aim is not to find friends but to locate interlocutors who may not be kindly disposed toward Americans or our values, but who are willing to explore areas of potentially mutual interest. In the meantime, if the American Dream is to be kept alive, it will be through continued economic growth. And if we intend to nurture such growth, we will have to continue to countenance greed. Now, as we are just beginning to re-learn, there is unrestrained and restrained greed, just as there are unregulated and regulated markets. In both instances, we will doubtless be seeing more of the latter. But the basic acquisitiveness of our market-based capitalist society will not soon be changing. Nor is our global cultural impact uniformly negative or positive. American appetites and aspirations are of a piece. Just as our extraordinary cultural fare simultaneously repels and attracts many Americans, so too does it repel and attract peoples around the globe. Certainly much of our popular culture appeals to the basest instincts, especially the stuff aimed at adolescent males here and abroad. Yet on occasion, our cultural output also speaks to the better angels of human nature. And as evidenced by the cries for democracy now being sounded throughout the Arab world, our fundamental political values are appreciated in places where our policies are not. If we are to take the next step in this engagement with the Muslim world, then we must overcome our reluctance to face up to its complex cultural dimensions.
Peter Skerry is a professor of political science at Boston College and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. An earlier version of this article appeared in the Institute for American Values online journal IjtihadReason.org
Americas Purpose and Role in a Changed World David Rieff
Let me begin by putting my own moral and ideological cards on the table, since I assume that I have been asked to participate in this symposium because of, and not in spite of, the fact that I reject the idea that Americas global hegemony is not just good for the United States but assures global peace and stability as well, and thus is good for the world. In his recent book-length article for a special issue of the New Left Review titled American Foreign Policy and Its Thinkers, a brilliant, implacable anatomization of the American Empire, Perry Anderson approvingly quotes Christopher Laynes observation that in international relations, benevolent hegemons are like unicornsthere is no such animal. That is certainly my view. And I would add that a democratic empire (for other than its own citizens, at least) is quite simply a contradiction in terms. Like every empire that has preceded it, the American Empire has some unique characteristics, the most salient being that it is an informal imperium. Whether this makes all that much difference to the essential character and the global agenda of the United States seems to me highly questionable. To cite a recent example, can anyone with any historical knowledge who has listened to the recordings of Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nulands conversation with the US ambassador to Kyiv, about who should and who should not be allowed to replace Ukraines legally elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, honestly not hear the echo of empires past? Many will say that the recent anti-government protests in Ukraine that culminated with Yanukovychs ouster demonstrate I am completely wrong about this, and that an empire can indeed be benevolent. As Robert Kagan put it in Not Fade Away: The Myth of American Decline, an essay for which President Obama has expressed great admiration, The present world ordercharacterized by an unprecedented number of democratic nations; a greater global prosperity, even with the current crisis, than the world has ever known; and a long peace among great powersreflects American principles and preferences, and was built and preserved by American power in all its political, economic, and military dimensions. Related Essay
Fermez la Porte: The Over-simplification of Europe David Rieff | ESSAY Christopher Caldwell has a pretty simple read of Europe's woes. David Rieff thinks it's too simple. In contrast to Kagans relatively sanguine view of the durability of US hegemony, the inspiration for this symposium seems to be based on the editors perceptions that in a United States wearied and demoralized by the terrible cost (in every sense of the word) and the dismaying consequences (putting it euphemistically) of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is becoming increasingly difficult to rally reluctant citizenry to the cause of Americas international engagement. I wish this were the case, but as has so often been my experience over the past twenty years, even though I could not disagree more with Kagan politically, I could not agree more with him analytically. To paraphrase Mark Twain, a great anti-imperialist as well as a great writer, reports of the death of the American Empire are greatly exaggerated. To ask the obvious question: why are so many, including, or so I presume, the editors of this journal and most of the contributors to this symposium, so worried? Surely, from their point of view, things are not going all that badly, although the historical assumptions that serve as their point of departure seem to me highly debatable. Is it in fact true that the United States reigned confident and supreme in 2000? If Americans were confident, surely not just 9/11, but the rise of Chinese economic and military power, which was already very much in train in the 1990s, demonstrated such confidence had been unwarranted to begin with, and was, if anything, a penumbral effect, not to say a narcissistic delusion, resulting from a unique event: the collapse of the Soviet empire. As Kagan rightly insisted in his essay, To compare American influence today with a mythical past of overwhelming dominance can only mislead us. In my view, the editors anxieties over the risks and dangers that confront the United States are as misleading in their level of alarm as their portrait of the geostrategic environment in 2000 is rose-colored. Are the jihadis a real adversary? Absolutely. Are they an adversary as formidable as the Soviet Union? Absolutely not. Are poverty and illiteracy huge problems? Yes, but in fact poverty and illiteracy have been declining steadily in most of the developing world since 2000. And it is hardly unreasonable to take at least as sanguine a view of the other threats, challenges, and vulnerabilities that the editors enumerate. To insist on this point is not to say that any of the challenges that the American Empire faces are easy. But this, I think, is where the editors use of the year 2000 as a point of comparison is highly misleading, since the 1990s were the only decade in the three-quarters of a century since the United States became the worlds preeminent power when it had no adversary. In other words, it was the world of 2000, an era in which all wars were wars of choice and global hegemony seemed to come unchallenged and virtually cost-free, that was the anomaly. In contrast, it was the world of the Cold War and now, after the hiatus of the 1990s, the world we have been living in through the first decade and a half of the twenty-first century that actually reflect the long-term historical norm.
This is not to say that all that is going on is reversion to mean. But what has changed is not that the United States faces more powerful adversaries than it ever did in the past, or that the United States is weaker than it had been previously. As Kagan points out, the period when the declinists had the strongest case was not now but rather the 1970s. Instead, what has changed, as both Kagan and Perry Anderson, for all that otherwise divides them, have emphasized, is the extent to which the US foreign policy establishment now must pay attention to American public opinion. As Anderson puts it, Since the Second World War, the external order of American power has been largely insulated from the internal political system. But now, in Kagans worried formulation, many Americans have convinced themselves that the United States can take a time- out from its global responsibilities while it gets its own house in order. To put it bluntly, thats what two wars that seem increasingly pointless and a financial crisis will do, not to mention the wide perception in the United States that among the greatest losers in globalization are lower-middle-class and working-class Americans. If, like the editors, I were seeking for ways that, as they put it, American leaders can rally a reluctant citizenry to the cause of what I would call the maintenance of the American Empire, and what I assume they would call the United States indispensable leadership of the world, I would accept that the era of the autonomy of foreign policy from economic concerns at home has ended, and try to address Americans absolutely justified fears about not continuing to steadily lose ground economically. Whether this is possible in the context of a neo-liberal economic order that the US foreign policy and business establishment is also strongly committed to is another question entirely. But if the United States continues to pursue wars that are always advertised as great acts of conscience, and expressions of the countrys values, as well as being matters of crucial national interest that, as the editors put it, oblige US involvement, and then end very, very badly, even when, as was the case with the intervention in Libya, these military forays are presented as being effectively cost-free, then the growing public skepticism that this symposium clearly views with alarm is only likely to grow stronger. The editors may (awfully euphemistically, it seems to me) refer to an American public being understandably unnerved that neither [Iraq nor Afghanistan] has a particularly friendly or stable government in place as US forces withdraw (emphasis added), but in fact widespread popular frustration and dismay are far stronger than that. The Republican Party, even if it takes back the Senate in November, is already splintering over social issues such as same-sex marriage, which religious conservatives now realize is at least as strongly supported by the business establishment as it is by the hated liberals. And those whom Walter Russell Mead once defined as Jacksonian Americans, who traditionally supported the wide global use of US military power, are increasingly uncomfortable with it, as the unexpected rise of Rand Paul has shown clearly. It is anything but clear that the bipartisan foreign policy establishment, many of whose leading lights are even now still pressing President Obama to reverse himself and undertake military action in Syria, has the faintest idea of how to cope with the first popular pushback since before the beginning of the Cold War, which, crucially, is coming from the right every bit as much (if not more) as from the left. Its worth remembering that from the War of 1812, through the forcible, sanguinary annexation of a huge part of Mexico, to the brutal suppression of the nationalist uprising against American colonialism in the Philippines in the aftermath of the Spanish-American War, there was an enormous amount of opposition in the United States to the imperial project. It is at least possible that in the twenty-first century the political conditions that shape and constrain US foreign policy will more resemble those that obtained in the nineteenth century than in the twentieth. This does not mean the American Empire will retrench to any significant degree. But it will make its smooth administration much harder. That said, if President Obama can enthuse over Robert Kagans essay, which argued that preserving the present world order requires constant American leadership and constant American commitment, imagine what the far more hawkish Hillary Clinton would do should she become president. I wish I could conclude that the anxieties underpinning this symposium were warranted, and that the end of the American Empire was in the cards in any foreseeable future. But I see no reason to expect any such eventuality. The editors can stand down. mericas Purpose and Role in a Changed World Michael V. Hayden
Ihad never been a big fan of American exceptionalism. It was too self-referential, self- identifying, self-focused for my personal comfort. Then one bitterly cold day in February 1994, I was wandering through the open-air market in Sarajevo. The market had been hit by a single mortar round the previous weekend and sixty-eight people had been killed. Holes made by fragments from the 120-mm shell were still visible in the asphalt. As I stared at the gouged surface in my battle dress and parka, Sarajevans began to come up to me, point to the small American flag on my upper sleeve, give a hesitant thumbs-up gesture, and whisper, almost prayerfully, USA, USA. Related Essay
Beyond Snowden Michael V. Hayden | ESSAY Edward Snowdens leaks have fixated the media and the public on privacy and espionage, but the larger and more complex debate on protecting American security in the 21st century has been wanting. At that point it became clear to me that it mattered less whether I thought America was exceptional. What mattered was that many people around the world thought that we were, and expected us to act accordingly. In many ways this is less something we have earned or even want, and more the product of historical circumstance. But a burden has clearly been ours, and when it is no longer ours the best judgment we can hope for is something along the lines of As global hegemons go, these guys werent bad. Now, under President Obama, the United States is involved in a redefinition or at least a recalibration of that exceptional role. And the president is not alone. Some Republicans agree with him. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has been staking out foreign affairs and security turf for himself, criticizing American policy as too belligerent and calling for a reduction of commitments abroad and a renewed emphasis on housekeeping duties here at home. Those inclined to support the presidents approach applaud him for conducting a reappraisal of Americas role, for working to more accurately align the definition of Americas interest with the realities of Americas power. Those who are more critical characterize the policies as a withdrawal, an abrogation of American responsibility, motivated by a broad disinterest in foreign affairs and a desire to remake American society at home without global distractions. Whatever your judgment on the merits of the course, the trajectory seems clear. And in military terms, this retrenchment would be described as a retreat, the most difficult of all military maneuvers since, when badly managed, retrograde can become rout and movement in the face of the enemy can quickly devolve into chaos. Take terrorism, for example. Last fall the Economist reported that al-Qaeda now controls more territory and has more adherents than at any other time in its history. So much for the hope (and the campaign rhetoric) that al-Qaeda was on the run, near strategic defeat, and that the tide of war was receding. There remain real dangerseven as al-Qaeda prime in South Asia is reelingthat the organization will secure a safe haven in western Iraq and the eastern Syrian desert (unlike Afghanistan, not in the middle of nowhere, but in the middle of the Middle East); that swaths of Yemen will resume their status as al-Qaeda bases; that Iraq will be de facto partitioned; and that al-Qaeda wannabes in Libya, the Sinai, northern Mali, and Nigeria will grow in strength. The failure to sustain an American presence in Iraq has already moved that country toward the Iranian orbit and enabled a level of violence that rivals that of 2008. Some have blamed that on Iraqi obstructionism over a Status of Forces Agreement but, when he announced the total American withdrawal, President Obama himself labeled it as a promise kept and later (in a debate with Governor Mitt Romney) denied that he wanted to keep a residual force there. Americas decision to lead from behind in Libya (and de facto disengagement after Muammar Qaddafis death) contributed to chaos there, the death of four Americans, a flood of arms throughout the Middle East, and a resurgence of al-Qaeda in the Sahel. What now will become of Syria and the Levant since our policy there has never deviated from its one constant:Minimize American involvement? Absent some dramatic turn in policy, possible futures are limited to: (1) a continuation of the status quo, which the US director of national intelligence has labeled an apocalyptic disaster; (2) the Syrian state effectively dissolving, with one successor fragment a radicalized Islamic caliphate; or (3) perhaps Irans ally Bashar Assad wins. All these outcomes take place at a historic crossroads of civilization with the US nowhere in view. In the Persian Gulf, Americas Sunni allies are feverishly trying to divine the administrations intentions after the president recently told the New Yorker, You could see an equilibrium developing between Sunni, or predominantly Sunni, Gulf states and Iran in which theres competition, perhaps suspicion, but not an active or proxy war. Admittedly, the president prefaced that with a requirement that Iran change its ways, but the comment comes on top of a broader fear of abandonment and a general sense of unease about American reliability in the wake of last summers red-line debacle in Syria. In Europe, the eastward expansion of freedom and free enterprise seems to have stopped at Kyiv as Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to baldly re-assert Moscows economic leverage and political power in the post-Soviet space. The early American response had been so minimal, with so little apparent willingness to impose costs on Moscow, that the release of an assistant secretary of states profane phone call actually provided a bit of rare good news in that it showed that America at least cared. In Asia, what are we to make of Chinas self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone, which encompasses broad reaches of the East China Sea, including the airspace over and around islands disputed with Japan? A rare Chinese diplomatic misstep, perhaps, or maybe overreach fueled by a Chinese judgment that the American pivot to Asia looks more like a head fake than a policysomething that should be tested?
To be fair, none of these issues have obvious answers, and many offer alternatives ranging from bad to very bad. There is also a general fatigue throughout the land. A recent joint poll by Pew Research and the Council on Foreign Relations found that a record fifty-two percent of respondents said that the United States should mind its own business internationally and eighty percent believed the US should address domestic problems over international ones. But the costs of American inaction (in places like Syria, Libya, and Iraq) are now becoming obvious, and the toll seems to be mounting. Action in Syria, for example, is much more difficult and less likely to succeed now than one, two, or three years ago. And Americans are not quite trending totally isolationist. That same Pew/CFR poll showed that more than half of Americans did not want the United States to go its own way in the world. International involvement demands sacrifice, and sacrifice requires leadership. How many in that eighty percent above were influenced (or felt vindicated) by a president constantly reminding them that it was time to do some nation building at home? Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, has accurately characterized Afghanistan as President Obamas war of choice. Yet even here, the president has committed little of his personal or political capital, rarely speaks about it, and has created timelines for withdrawal independent of conditions on the ground. Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gatess recent memoir summarized the approach: the President...doesnt believe in his own strategy and doesnt consider the war to be his. For him, its all about getting out. The account is from an early 2010 meeting in the situation room, four months after the president announced his Afghan surge. Recalibration. Retreat. Adjustment. Withdrawal. All tough tasks no matter how you describe them. Even tougher if they suggest to your adversaries (and your friends) that you lack the stomach for the fight. Our greatest security danger in coming years? It might well be us. mericas Purpose and Role in a Changed World Tom Gjelten
The presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama suggest what doesnt work in efforts to promote US influence in the world. By ordering an ill-conceived invasion of Iraq, Bush alienated US allies. His policies of secretly imprisoning Islamist militants and then subjecting them to enhanced interrogation and indefinite detention at Guantnamo struck Muslims everywhere as evidence of a war on Islam. Barack Obama, elected as the most explicitly anti-war president since Woodrow Wilson, came into office determined to undo the international damage done by his predecessor. The walls between old allies on either side of the Atlantic cannot stand, Obama said in Berlin in 2008, and a year later, speaking in Cairo, he promised a new beginning with the Muslim world, with relations based upon mutual interest and mutual respect. As promised, he withdrew US combat troops from Iraq. By 2013, however, Obama had fared little better than Bush in his global outreach. According to the Pew Research Center, support for the United States in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Pakistan was actually lower than it had been in the last year of the Bush administration. In Europe, the US favorability rating was higher than it was under Bush, but it had fallen steadily in the years since Obama took office, and it remained far below where it stood in 2000. One possible lesson from these years is that presidential personalities, speeches on foreign stages, and the changing international opinions of US policies matter less than we might think. Perhaps the most reliable measure of Americas standing in the world is how appealing the country is to all those who are considering migration. Since 2007, Gallup surveys in more than one hundred and fifty countries have shown that the United States is far and away the number one favored destination. The most recent survey projected that one hundred and thirty-eight million people worldwide would like to move permanently to the United States, more than three times the number who would choose the United Kingdom, the second most favored destination. Those numbers show the United States still represents opportunity and promise to people around the world, and it is clearly in the US global interest to maintain that reputation.
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US Cyber Warriors Seize the Offensive Tom Gjelten | ESSAY The US has abandoned its previous dependence on defensive cyber strategies and has shifted into high gear with the aim of developing superior first-strike capacities. Consider how many Muslims have chosen to reside in the United States. Though the US Census Bureau does not tally newcomers by religion, other surveys suggest Muslims constitute one of the fastest-growing immigrant groups in the country. Data from the US Religion Census indicate that the number of Muslims in the United States more than doubled in the decade after the 9/11 attacks, precisely the period when US foreign policies were angering the Muslim world. Some of this growth was due to natural population growth or conversion, but of the 2010 US Muslim population, one in four had immigrated to the United States in the previous ten years. And they appear to be happy. A 2011 Pew survey found eighty-two percent of US Muslims expressing satisfaction with their American lives, and in comparison with the general US population, more than twice as many Muslims approved of the way things are going in the country. To the extent Muslim immigrants communicate those sentiments to relatives and friends back home, the reports would have a positive impact. The implication here is that, to the world at large, the American example may mean more than American words or even actions. As long as the United States is seen as a country where people of varied backgrounds have an unequalled opportunity to make a fresh start and prosper, its global standing will be on a strong foundation. Sustaining this position requires that attention be paid to making sure that America lives up to its promise at home. Keeping America strong, productive, and welcoming is likely to do as much for the US image in the world as the overt promotion of democracy abroad or the exercise of public diplomacy in a propagandistic celebration of American values. The risk that such an inward focus will reinforce an isolationist perspective is offset by the likelihood that Americas identity as a nation of immigrants will ensure that it retains an internationalist outlook. The newcomers among us will make sure of that. The foreign-born segment of the US population in 2010 was at its highest level since 1920, and never has it been so diverse. The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 ended the pro-European bias of US immigration policy by eliminating the use of national origin quotas in the allocation of resident visas. As a result, immigrants to the United States now come from across the world and bring with them a perspective shaped by their experience. This reality need not suggest a tilt in one policy direction or another, but it inevitably will serve to internationalize Americans awareness of world affairs and force the peoples representatives in government, even in state legislatures, to make decisions and choices on issues they might not otherwise need to consider. Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe learned this lesson shortly after his 2013 election. During his campaign, the large and politically active Korean American community in Northern Virginia pressed him to promise that any new textbooks used in Virginia schools note that the Sea of Japan, which separates Japan and the Korean peninsula, is also known as the East Sea. For Koreans, still pained by Japans brutal occupation of their country from 1910 to 1945, any reminder of Japanese rule is hurtful, and Korean immigrants in the United States share that sentiment. Eager to have Korean American support, McAuliffe made the pledge. But shortly after taking office, he learned that keeping his promise to the Korean community would anger Japan, one of the states largest trading partners. Republicans saw an opportunity to put the Democratic governor in a tight spot and supported bills that would mandate the textbook change. Legislators heard an impassioned appeal by Delegate Mark Keam, who related how his mother had been humiliated in her classroom and forced to speak Japanese as a young girl in Seoul during the war years. It was not the kind of issue that representatives of rural Virginia counties were accustomed to considering, but in an increasingly immigrant society, legislators and policymakers at all levels of government need to keep abreast of international issues. Jewish immigrants fleeing from persecution in central and eastern Europe had earlier forced their representatives to support Israel, Cuban exiles had made US policy toward Cuba an election issue in Florida, and Muslim immigrants have kept a spotlight on US counterterrorism policy, to be sure it does not unfairly target Americans on the basis of their religion or Middle Eastern ancestry. Ideally, such pressures from immigrant communities will serve to make Americans more aware of the rest of the world and more inclined to appreciate the complexity of global issues. The American foreign policy thinker who most eloquently advocated modesty was George Kennan, the Cold War diplomat and Soviet specialist. Kennan is famous as the architect of containment, but that doctrine did not mean he was resigned to American weakness. Rather, Kennan recommended patience and expressed faith that America would be most influential in the world if it kept true to its own values. Writing in 1951, at a time when US policymakers were focused on the rise of Soviet power, Kennan argued that the most important influence that the United States can bring to bear upon internal developments in Russia will continue to be the influence of example: the influence of what it is, and not only what it is to others but what it is to itself....Any message we may try to bring to others will be effective only if it is in accord with what we are to ourselves. As for more proactive foreign policies, Kennan was skeptical. The ways by which peoples advance toward dignity and enlightenment in government are things that constitute the deepest and most intimate processes of national life. There is nothing less understandable to foreigners, nothing in which foreign interference can do less good. Kennan wanted the United States to impress the world and inspire confidence, but argued it should not be necessary to convince other peoples that America is deserving of their respect. In the lives of nations, the really worthwhile things cannot and will not be hidden, Kennan said. With instantaneous international communication and a population now connected to every corner of the globe, US success has never been more obvious nor the American example more compelling. Tom Gjelten, an NPR correspondent, is working on a book about the impact on America of the 1965 Immigration Act. MAY/JUNE 2014 Americas Purpose and Role in a Changed World Sarah Grebowski
Ill never forget my brief and ill-received show of American patriotism as a young expatriate in Beirut. It was the summer of 2010, and the city was teeming with convoys of Lebanese youth honking and waving flags to celebrate their favorite teams victories in the World Cup. After an exciting win by the US, I joined a group of Americans in a street celebration. But cruising down the main thoroughfare of West Beirut, our procession of stars and stripes was met with disapproving looks. The image that remains with me to this day is that of an older man standing silently with his shoe in his hand. The tattered sole was pointed directly at us, an expression of disrespect in Muslim culture. We recognized the gestures meaning only because a similar shoe had been thrown at the American presidents head a year earlier. Todays generation of young Americans, known as the millennials, has come of age at a time when America has been humbled on the world stage. Many of them have traveled extensively at a young age and experienced this diminished reputation firsthand. Their parents and grandparents believe that America has been a remarkable force for good in the world and that the country should not lose sight of its responsibility to shape events globally because of mistakes made in the last decade. But millennials seem more fixed on the limits of American power and disenchanted with ideas of American exceptionalism. Because of these reservations, the millennial generation is often described as declinist or isolationist. I disagree. Young Americans care more than any other age group about what happens beyond our borders. Millennials tend toward multilateralism and the cautious use of force, and perhaps would be more selective in committing US resources overseas. But far from an abdication of global leadership, this prudence may prove to be the silver lining to millennials crisis of confidence in Americas role as, in President Obamas words, not just a place on a map, but the light to the world.
Other generations have been disillusioned by the tarnishing of Americas image abroad. This was particularly true during the war in Vietnam. A Foreign Affairs article published in 1970 titled The New Generation of Isolationists contains remarkable parallels between the attitudes of young baby boomers at the time and millennials now. The 1970s youth generation saw deep flaws in American democracy, felt outrage over Americas wars and covert action, and vowed that they would not repeat the foreign policy mistakes being made by their elders. Much as the 1972 Democratic Party convention and its presidential candidate harnessed the political voice of this frustrated generation, the 2008 presidential election, which saw the second- highest youth turnout in history, focused national attention on the attitudes and opinions of the eighteen-to-thirty-two-year-old slice of the American population known as the millennials. Amid the clamor over what it means to be a millennial, this much is clear: the current generation embraces a distinctly different worldview than that of older generations. In a 2011 Pew Research poll, The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election, millennials were the least likely age group to say that the US is the greatest country in the world; in fact, only thirty-two percent of them held the view. The reasons for young peoples skepticism toward claims of American greatness that resonate so strongly with their elders are complex. For starters, millennials unprecedented level of interaction with foreign cultures makes them reluctant to think of their country as fundamentally superior to others. More than simply gaining familiarity with other countries and feeling an affinity for the global community, millennials have developed bonds with foreign countries through their experiences living, working, and studying abroad. Especially throughout Americas economic recession, when many college graduates faced a discouraging lack of job opportunity at home, many have called Beirut, Beijing, Kyiv, and other places home. Recent polling data from Zogby Analytics confirms that millennials are much less likely to agree that foreign cultures are inferior to American culture than other generations have been. Historical context is also part of the equation. Millennials have come of age during a decade when Americas image has plummeted as a result of unpopular wars, shaping their perception of the country. More importantly, they have never seen the world order come under a threat from a malign force such as fascism or communism. Millennials have read about the exceptional things America has done to benefit the rest of the world, but were never shaped by the visceral experiences of stocking a fallout shelter during the Cold War or being conscripted to fight for Americas way of life. The attacks of 9/11 might have been a seminal event for the millennials, but the resulting war against al-Qaeda has not affected as many younger people as profoundly as these previous conflicts did. Finally, millennials perceive an awkward mismatch between ideas of American exceptionalism and the pronounced crisis of institutions the country faces. Millennials today witness partisan gridlock, economic stagnation, and growing socioeconomic inequality at home and wonder whether the US has the capability or the moral right to provide global leadership when it has such interminable difficulty putting its own house in order.
If millennials arent thinking like leaders of the free world once did, what then do they see as the way forward for the US? Isolationism is not the mainstream view among them, despite the Brookings Institutions 2011 finding that fifty-eight percent of the emerging foreign policy leaders identified among the younger generation think America is too involved in global affairs and should do more at home. Millennials on the extreme end of foreign policy opinionwho, for example, favor slashing the foreign aid budget, which hovers at one percent of federal spending, for the sake of nation building at homeoften overestimate the degree to which scaling back our presence globally will fix domestic problems. But the Brookings profile of millennials may be an outlier. A greater number of studies indicate that millennials are ready to embrace a robust foreign policy with more, not less, engagement beyond our borders. A 2005 poll conducted by GQR Research, for example, showed that more young Americans believed that the September 11th attacks underscored a need for America to be more connected with the world (fifty-five percent) than a need simply to assert greater control over its borders (thirty-nine percent). Millennial foreign policy views are also not necessarily defeatist or declinist. Most young Americans believe that the nations best days are ahead of us and show more optimism about the future than older generations. 1
The central question, then, is not whether but how the millennial generation of policymakers will preserve Americas position in the world and promote global stability and prosperity. If trends continue, the rising generation will likely be cautious in the use of force to achieve foreign policy goals and prefer diplomacy instead. (In the 2011 Pew poll, sixty-six percent of millennials thought that relying too much on military force to defeat terrorism actually leads to more hatred and terrorism.) Multilateralism is also central to the millennial vision. Younger Americans are the most likely to believe that Americas security depends on building strong ties with other nations, and think that the US should take the interests of its allies into account even if it means making compromises. 2
This is no abdication of global leadership, but rather a realistic reaction to the lessons of recent history. What would be the wisdom after the Iraq War in using military force over diplomacy to advance democratic change? Where are the financial and political resources for the US to secure its interests unilaterally? Millennials see leadership as more than a binary choice between isolationism and interventionism, and weigh the many forms of agency when it comes to how the US can shape events around the world. Though shirking a global leadership role is not an option, scaling back our commitments abroad, especially militarily, does seem to be an important priority among this young generation. Aware of Americas fallibility and the constraints upon its global behavior, millennials believe they can craft a more sustainable level of American engagement beyond its borders by recalibrating its use of hard and soft power to shape events. Sarah Grebowski is a graduate student in the Master of Science in Foreign Service program at Georgetown University and a member of the 201314 Future Leaders Program at the Foreign Policy Initiative.
1. In the 2011 Generation Gap poll by Pew, fifty-five percent of those aged eighteen to thirty thought that Americas best days lay ahead, compared to fifty-five percent of those aged thirty- one to forty-six, forty-eight percent of those aged forty-seven to sixty-five, and forty-seven percent of those aged sixty-six to eighty-three. 2. A 2009 study conducted by the Center for American Progress cites the following findings: In a 2004 Pew poll, sixty-two percent of those aged eighteen to twenty-five said the United States should take into account the interests of its allies even if it means making compromises with them, compared to fifty-two percent of their elders; in a 2004 Democracy Corps poll, fifty-seven percent of those aged eighteen to twenty-nine said that Americas security depended on building strong ties with other nations; and a 2009 Progressive Study Program youth poll found that sixty-three percent of young Americans thought Americas security is best promoted by working through diplomacy, alliances, and international institutions, compared to eleven percent who dissented.