SpaceWorks NanoMicrosat Market Feb2013

1
Copyright 2013, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment
February 2013
Public Release | February 2013 | Revision C
Mr. Dominic DePasquale
Director of Washington D.C. Operations
dominic.depasquale@sei.aero | 1+202.503.1753

Dr. John Bradford
President, SpaceWorks Engineering
john.bradford@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8007

2
Overview
! SpaceWorks presents the February 2013 update to its nano/microsatellite market analysis and launch
projections
! The data source for this study is the SpaceWorks Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB)
The LDDB is a database of all known historical and future satellite projects, including all known nano/microsatellites
Currently 377 known future nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) in the LDDB
Currently 47 known future picosatellites in the LDDB(not included in this study)
! This study focuses on nano/microsatellites with masses between 1 kg and 50 kg
Pico satellites with masses below 1 kg are not within the scope of this study
! SpaceWorks has projected global launch demand in the nano/microsatellite market according to a Gompertz
logistic curve from 2013 to the year 2020
Note this is not a forecast in that SpaceWorks places no value judgment on whether developers will successfully meet
their announced launch date or not
! Two projections were developed from Announced and Optimistic data sets
Announced data set contains all publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs
Optimistic data set consists of the announced plus quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected
sustainment of current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative, DARPA SeeMe)
! Projections indicate strong growth in nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range of 121 to 188
nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) that will need launches globally in 2020 (versus 33 in 2012)
3
Nano/Microsatellite Definitions
! Generally accepted definitions of satellite mass classes under 500 kg
Small (100-500kg), Micro (10-100 kg), Nano (1-10 kg), and Pico (<1 kg)
! Many nanosatellites are based on the CubeSat standard
Developed in by California Polytechnic State University and Stanford University in 1999
Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10 cm units
Each unit, or U, usually has mass close to 1 kg and not to exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass between 3
and 4 kg)
Standard allows for ease of design and integration
! This study limits the upper end of microsatellite mass to 50 kg given the relative large amount of satellite
development activity in the 1-50 kg range by comparison to the 50-100 kg range.
University of Tokyos XI-IV CubeSat
Picosatellite (<1 kg)
Nanosatellite (1-10 kg)
Microsatellite (10-100 kg)
Small Satellite (100-500 kg)
Visual Display of Small to Pico Satellite Scale
Focus of this Study (1-50 kg)
4
Nano/Micro Satellite Applications and Associated Examples
Communications
HAMSAT
Mass: 46 kg

Remote Sensing
WNISAT
Mass: 10 kg

Scientific Research
UNISAT
Mass: 1.5 kg

Biological Experiments
O/OREOS
Mass: 5.5 kg

Technology Demonstration
FalconSat 1
Mass: 50 kg

Military Application
SMDC-One
Mass: 4 kg

Academic Training
AAUSAT 2
Mass: 1 kg

5
Nano/Microsatellite Future Program Summary (1-50 kg)
Name of
Program
Time Organization Country
Mass
(kg)
No.
Launched
Total
Number
NSF Geospace
& Atmospheric
CubeSat
2010-2015 NSF USA 1-3 4 12
NASA EDSN 2013-2014
NASA Ames
Research
Center
USA 3 0 20
NASA CubeSat
Launch
Initiative
2011-2014 NASA USA 1-8 13 71
F6 2015 DARPA USA 45 0 4
SeeMe and
ALASA
payloads
2014 -2015 DARPA USA 45 0 36
NRO
Colony I & II
2010-2016 NRO USA 3-5 4 62
QB50 2015
Von Karman
Institute /
Various
Various 2 0 50
HUMSAT 2013 - 2014
University of
Vigo / Various
Various 1 0 10
Notes: Refer to end notes 1, 2, and 3.
L
a
r
g
e

P
r
o
g
r
a
m
s

6
5
%

O
t
h
e
r

3
5
%

Announced Future Launches 2013-2015
NSF
Large Program Breakdown for Announced Future Launches
EDSN
NASA CSLI
F6
SeeMe
NRO Colony
QB50
Other (U.S.)
Other
(Non-U.S.)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
NSF
EDSN
CubeSat Launch Initiative
F6
ALASA (SeeMe+TBD)
NRO Colony
QB50
HUMSAT
Other (USA)
Other (Foreign)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
NSF
EDSN
CubeSat Launch Initiative
F6
ALASA (SeeMe+TBD)
NRO Colony
QB50
HUMSAT
Other (USA)
Other (Foreign)
HUMSAT
6
148
163
176
188
100
107
114
121
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2
0
0
0

2
0
0
1

2
0
0
2

2
0
0
3

2
0
0
4

2
0
0
5

2
0
0
6

2
0
0
7

2
0
0
8

2
0
0
9

2
0
1
0

2
0
1
1

2
0
1
2

2
0
1
3

2
0
1
4

2
0
1
5

2
0
1
6

2
0
1
7

2
0
1
8

2
0
1
9

2
0
2
0

N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

S
a
t
e
l
l
i
t
e
s

(
1
-
5
0

k
g
)

Calendar Year
Optimistic Dataset
Announced Dataset
Known Past Launches
Optimistic Best Fit
Announced Best Fit
Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Projections
Notes: Refer to end notes 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6.
Projections based on the announced plans of nano/microsatellite developers and
programs indicate a range of 121 to 188 nano/microsatellites requiring launch by 2020
7
! Identified reasons for delay in anticipated launch date of nano/
microsatellites include the following:
Launch: A slip in schedule of the launch vehicle, delay in schedule
of the primary payload, delay in development of the launch vehicle,
inability of the satellite developer to identify or contract with a
suitable launch provider
Development: Satellite development technical or management
challenges, delays in funding, delays due to suppliers, testing and
qualification challenges, delays in government approvals (e.g. ITAR)
Combination: Both launch and satellite development delays
occurred
Unknown: The reason for delay cannot be readily determined
! None of the nano/microsatellite projects from the announced
dataset anticipating launch in 2012 were cancelled or ended
Nano/Microsatellite Launch Delays: 2012 Case Study
! Fewer satellites are expected to actually launch than the number projected in future years
Projections are based on the announced plans of nano/microsatellite developers, but delays often occur
! SpaceWorks previously released nano/microsatellite projections in November of 2011
Number of satellites (1-50 kg) planning launch in 2012 according to November 2011 Announced Dataset: 58
Number of satellites (1-50 kg) actually launched in 2012: 35
Development 32%
Unknown 2%
Combination 11%
Launch 55%
Reasons for Delay in Anticipated 2012 Launch
Date of November 2011 Announced Dataset
Launch delays/challenges were the leading cause for delay of launches in 2012
8
21
27
41
24
108
192
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000-2012 2013-2015
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

S
a
t
e
l
l
i
t
e
s

Civil
Government
Commercial
Defense/Intelligence
Defense/Intelligence 8%
Commercial 11%
Government 22%
(internal non-defense
govt efforts)
Past (2000-2012) Small Satellites
(1-50 kg) by Industrial Sector
Announced Future (2013-2015) Small Satellites
(1-50 kg) by Industrial Sector
Notes: Refer to end notes 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, and 10.
Civil 59%
(university,
FFRDC, etc.)
Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector
Evidence of increased defense/intelligence sector interest in nano/microsatellites
Civil 56%
Defense/Intelligence 30%
Commercial 7%
Government 7%
9
32
30
29
107 11
17
9
13
3
26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000-2012 2013-2015
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

S
a
t
e
l
l
i
t
e
s

Reconnaisance Earth Observation
Remote Sensing Scientific
Communications Technology
Evidence of adoption of small satellites for applications beyond technology demonstration
Past (2000-2012) Small Satellites
(1-50 kg) by Purpose
Announced Future (2013-2015) Small Satellites
(1-50 kg) by Purpose
Communications
16%
Remote Sensing 6%
Scientific 14%
Technology
60%
Reconnaissance 1%
Earth Observation 3%
Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose

Communications
10%
Remote Sensing
6%
Scientific 35%
Technology 36%
Reconnaisance 9%
Earth Observation 4%
10
123
76
80
15
5
5
3
6
0
9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Number of Satellites (2013-2015)
M
a
s
s

B
i
n

(
k
g
)
66
20
13
11
10
10
3
3
1
9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Number of Satellites (2000-2012)
M
a
s
s

B
i
n

(
k
g
)
Nanosatellite Size Trends
Past (2000-2012) Nanosatellites (1-10 kg)
Announced future nanosatellites suggest sustainment of the historically popular
1U (1 kg) CubeSat as well as the emerging 2U and 3U nanosatellites
Future growth of 6U (8 kg) class is speculated based on current dispenser development
efforts and anecdotal evidence
Announced Future (2013-2015) Nanosatellites (1-10 kg)
11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2019
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

S
a
t
e
l
l
i
t
e
s

Time Period
Clyde Space 2010
(CubeSats Only)
Announced Dataset 2013
(1-3kg Nanosatellites)
Optimistic Dataset 2013
(1-3kg Nanosatellites)
Projections for Small Nanosatellites (1-3 kg)
Notes: Refer to end notes 1, 2, and 12.
SpaceWorks Nanosatellite Projections (1-3 kg)
Compared with Clyde Space 2010 Forecast
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

S
a
t
e
l
l
i
t
e
s

Calendar Year
101-200 kg 51-100 kg 11-50 kg 0-10 kg
Notes: Refer to end notes 1 and 2.
Number of Attempted Small Satellite Deliveries: 2000-2012 for 0-200 kg Satellite Class
(Includes Picosatellites < 1 kg)
Historical Global Small Satellites Launched: 2000-2012
Signs of an emerging and sustained launch market
13
Launch Vehicles: 2000-2012 for
1-10 kg Satellite Class
(As a Percentage of Global Satellites Launched)
Launch Vehicles: 2000-2012 for
11-50 kg Satellite Class
(As a Percentage of Global Satellites Launched)
Notes: Refer to end notes 1, 2, 8, and 9.
Historical Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Launch Vehicle (2000-2012)
Low cost piggy-back opportunities have historically attracted small satellite payloads to
international launch vehicles
Atlas V
1%
Falcon 1
1%
Delta II
1%
Pegasus
4%
Minotaur I
12%
Minotaur IV
3%
STS
7%
Soyuz
5%
Kosmos-3M
1%
Rokot-KM
3%
Dnepr-1
29%
Ariane
1%
Vega
1%
PSLV
7%
H-2
9%
Long March
5%
Other
8%
Atlas V
9%
Falcon 1
1%
Falcon 9
6%
Delta II
6%
Taurus
2%
Minotaur I
5%
Minotaur IV
2%
STS
6%
Soyuz
3%
Kosmos-3M
3% Rokot-KM
2%
Dnepr-1
22%
Ariane
1%
Vega
6%
PSLV
12%
M-V
1%
H-2
8%
Long March
3%
Other
2%
14
Conclusions
! The nano/microsatellite market has grown considerably with the adoption of the CubeSat standard,
microelectronics and other technology development, entrance of new developers, new government programs,
and furthering of applications
! Projections based on announced plans of developers indicate 121-188 nano/microsatellites requiring
launch in the year 2020
! Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):
Historical average growth of 8.6% per year over the last 12 years (2000-2012)
Announced Dataset average growth of 16.8% per year over the next 7 years (2013-2020)
Optimistic Dataset average growth of 23.4% per year over the next 7 years (2012-2020)
! Historical and announced future data set suggests that the average number of nano/microsatellites
launched per year triples with every five year period (2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015)
! Nano/microsatellite (1-50 kg) development continues to be led by the civil sector, but the defense/intelligence
community is showing increased interest and involvement
! Applications for nano/microsatellites are diversifying, with increased use in the future for science, Earth
observation, and reconnaissance missions

Custom analysis and more detailed assessment are available from SpaceWorks for
nano/microsatellites and larger satellite classes
15
Satellite Launch Demand Database
SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) maintains an internal database of past and future orbital
satellites with emphasis on small satellite launch demand. The database is compiled from
public sources and serves as the basis for SEI's annual Nano and Micro-satellite Market
Assessment summary. The database contains all satellites launched since 2000 and over 900
announced future spacecraft development efforts. Data fields within the database include
satellite mass, orbital destination, expected launch date, preferred launch vehicle (if available),
intended use category, development organization, and country of origin.
Customers desiring 24/7 access to the most current database and the ability to manipulate the
data for their own purposes may purchase annual access subscriptions in one of the following
three tiers:
Access to the full SpaceWorks dataset (0
kg to 10,000+ kg) via our iDashboards
interface. Permission to re-publish the
resultant search results and graphs with
proper acknowledgment to SpaceWorks.
Up to 100 labor hours annually of technical
support, proprietary market analysis
assistance, and proprietary drill-down
market research from SpaceWorks' staff.
Access to a broader range of spacecraft
launch demand data in the 0 kg to 1,000 kg
mass range via our iDashboards interface.
Permission to re-publish the resultant
search results and demand graphs with
proper acknowledgment to SpaceWorks
(for proposals, technical papers, website
use, etc.). In addition, SpaceWorks will
provide up to 10 labor hours annually for
technical support and limited market
analysis.
Access to a subset of the data in the
standard 1 kg to 50 kg mass range via our
iDashboards interface. Permission to use
the resultant search results and demand
graphs internal to the customer's
organization only.
For additional information on our standard subscription tiers, or to request a quote for our custom support
packages and market forecasting services, please contact:

Dr. John Bradford | President, Engineering Division | SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. | 1+770.379.8007 | john.bradford@sei.aero
16
End Notes
1. The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite co-
manifested on a particular launch vehicle). Data includes failed launch attempts.
2. All data for nano/microsatellite projects and programs is from publically sourced information. This may not represent all global nano/microsatellite
activities.
3. All NSF satellites thus far have launched through the NASA CSLI. In the table, these historical NSF satellites are included in both the count of
number launched for NSF and the count for CSLI (double counted in this sense). The bar graph of future launches shows only those NSF satellites
that expected, but currently not manifested (thus they are appropriately single counted for future launches).
4. The Announced data set includes some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date has not been announced. The
satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the announced program objectives
5. Future projections from 2016-2020 are determined by Gompertz logistic curve best fit regression with market saturation point (asymptote for
number of satellites) set at 170 nano/micro satellites in a year for Announced Dataset and 250 for Optimistic Dataset.
6. The Optimistic data set contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of an
inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to NASA Ames EDSN,
CubeSat Launch Initiative, DARPA SeeMe).
7. These graphs are based on the Announced data set only, and do not include additional satellites contained in the Optimistic data set.
8. The sum number of future nano/microsatellites shown in this chart may not equal the sum shown on other charts. Nano/microsatellites for which the
subject data of interest is unknown have been excluded from this chart.
9. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
10. By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we
break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. Government refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that occur
within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g. universities,
federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency.
11. Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included.
12. 70 percent of future satellites in the Announced Dataset are under 3kg. This percentage is applied to the projections for 2012-2019 to arrive at the
estimated number of satellites under 3 kg for each data point in the projection.
17
SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | info@sei.aero
ATLANTA: 1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000
WASHINGTON: 1701 K Street, N.W., Suite 750 | Washington, DC 20006 USA | +1.202.503.1750

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