12.

Because no probability is given for the switch, we will assume its probability of operating when needed is 100
percent.The expected cost of failure (i.e., without the bacup! is "20,000 # (1 $ .%&! ' "(00
)ith the bacup, the probability of not failing would be*
.%& + .02(.%&! ' .%%%,
-ence, the probability of failure would be 1 $ .%%%, ' .000(. The expected cost of failure with the bacup
would be the added cost of the bacup component plus the failure cost*
"100 + "20,000(.000(! ' "10&
Because this is less than the cost without the bacup, it appears that adding the bacup is definitely cost
.ustifiable.
13.
/TB0 ' 10 years
1ompute the ratio T2/TB0 for T ' 3, 12, 20, and 40, and obtain the values of e

T
/MTBF
from Table 4S.1. The
solutions are summari5ed in the following table*
Question:
The mean life of a certain ball bearing can be modeled using a normal distribution with a
mean of six years and a standard deviation of one year. Determine each of the following.
a. The probability that a ball bearing will wear out before seven years of service.
b. B. The probability that a ball bearing will wear out after seven years of service
(i.e., find its probability
c. The service life that will provide a wear out probability of 1! percent.
Solution:
"ear#out life men $ % years
"ear#out standard deviation $ 1 year
"ear#out life is normally distributed
a. The probability that a ball bearing will wear#out before seven years of service.
&irst of all you arte supposed to 'eep in mind the formula of probability i.e.
( $ x#)
*
+ere
, $ -robability
) $ .ean
x $ variable which is T in our case.
To solve the problem (a we start with given data.
) $ %
* $ 1
T is before seven years
T / 0 11111 (i
&ormula
( $ T#)
*
-utting the values
, $ 0#%
1
, $ 1.!!
2oo' the value of probability (( e3ual to 1.!! in the table (area under standardi(ed
normal curve which is .4513.
(Table is given in tour boo' -roduction 6perations .anage5ment by "illiam 7.
8tevenson
8ee the diagram in boo'.
b The probability that a ball bearing will wear out after seven years of service (i.e.,
find its probability
9ow after 0 years we :ust found before seven years. Total probability in each case is
e3ual to 1 or 1!!;.
<f we subtract the value of before 0 years from total we would get the remaining of
after 0 years.
=eliability$ Total # probability before 0 years
$ 1 #.4513
$ .1>40
8ee the diagram on boo'.
c The service life that will provide a wear out probability of 1! percent.
<n this problem formula is undoubtedly the same.
( $ T#)
*
This case is slightly different because we are given the values in ;age. "e have to
find out two variables i.e. T and (.
&irst move towards (.
2oo' at diagram in boo'.
,!.5 $ ?
@ou have to loo' in the table that what is the probability against !.5 thatAs why loo'
in values where a nearer to .5 li'e .3BB0 is given and values of ( against that is 1.C on
vertical line and !.!4 on hori(ontal line of probability.
Then methodically you write 1.C4 that is value of (.
-ut in formula
#1.C4 $ T # %
1
T $ % D 1.C4
$ 5.0C
8ee the diagram in boo'.
The negative sign indicates that value on diagram is on left side or less than mean
value which is %.