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Home > Policy + Politics > With Latest Victory, Assad Has Won the War in Syria
With Latest Victory, Assad Has Won the War in Syria
REUTERS
David Francis
The Fiscal Times
March 5, 2014
As the eyes of the world and the media turn to Ukraine, Syrian President Bashar al Assad has quietly been making momentous gains in his
three-year civil war with rebels that all but assure he will leave office on his own terms.
Yabroud, the last major town held by Sunni Muslim rebels and located near the Lebanese border, is under siege by Assad's army. On
Tuesday, with support from Hezbollah fighters and local paramilitary groups, Assads forces bombarded the town until the rebels retreated.
Related: Assad Thumbs His Nose at Deal to Remove Chemical Weapons
Taking Yabroud is an important victory for Assad, who has been fighting for months to control the surrounding region.. He has now
effectively cut off rebel supply lines from Lebanon.
The victory also comes as Syria continues to delay plans to destroy its chemical weapons. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons says Syria has now submitted one-third of its chemical weapons for destruction, far behind the schedule set in negotiations with
the United States and its allies last fall. Under that agreement, Syria was supposed to have handed over all of its deadliest agents by Jan. 1,
with the rest of the weapons gone by Feb. 6.
Syria blamed the delay on the ongoing civil war, an argument that western officials have dismissed.
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Every indication we have is that there is no legitimate reason why that (removal) is not happening now," Secretary of State John Kerry said
when the delays were announced. "We want the Syrian regime to live up to its obligations and it is critical that very rapidly all those chemical
weapons are moved from their 12 or so sites to the one site in the port (of Latakia) to be prepared for shipment out of Syria.
Related: Syria's 'Surrender' Ends Bizarre White House Scheme
Assad has now submitted a new plan, with all weapons set to be out of the country by the end of April.
Given delays since the lapse of the two target dates for removal, it will be important to maintain this newly created momentum," Ahmed
Uzumcu, OPCW's general director, said Thursday. "For its part, the Syrian government has reaffirmed its commitment to implement the
removal operations in a timely manner."
Meanwhile, negotiations to end the war are close to collapsing. They ended in mid-February with little progress made. Kerry dismissed
critics of the pace of the talks as ignorant of diplomatic history.
These people who say that it has failed or it is a waste of time, where is their sense of history, where is any knowledge of past peace
processes? Kerry said. How many years did the Vietnam talks take? How many years did Bosnia [take]? These things dont happen in one
month. It is just asinine, frankly, to be making an argument that after three weeks the talks failed. Its a process.
Related: The Coming Bloodbath in Syria
Taken together, Assads victory, his continued slaughter of those who oppose him, his repeated human rights violations, his failure to live up
to the terms of the deal, and his undermining of the peace talks amount to a stunning defeat of American diplomacy. Nearly 50,000 people
have died since the United States confirmed the use of chemical weapons last summer, bringing the total number of casualties to more than
140,000.
Taken together, this also represents a clear victory for Bashar al Assad. He has accomplished every goal he had when the United States
and its partners ignored the so-called red line and allowed the war to continue without intervention.
He has defeated the rebels, splitting them into warring factions. He still has the majority of his chemical weapons. He is still in power, and
with negotiations stalled, its unlikely hell be removed.
In short, hes won.
Former U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said as much at a March 1 speech at Tufts University.
You have one Al Qaeda faction fighting another Al Qaeda faction. Thats how fractured this is. One sharp sliver fighting another sharp sliver.
I bring no good news to you tonight about Syria. The Syrian opposition itself has done a miserable job distinguishing itself from the Al Qaeda
elements. There are some really bad people in Syria right now, on the opposition side. Can the opposition show that it is willing to reach out
and figure out a way security-wise and politics-wise to reunify across that sectarian divide?"
Ford said that Assad is likely to leave office on his own terms in June, when Syrians elect a new president. If he doesnt, the war would
continue.
I cant in any way imagine circumstances where most of the rebels who are now fighting against the regime or the countries that are backing
them are going to stand down if Assad remains.
Update: An earlier version of this story posted on March 5th said that Yabroud had fallen to Assad's forces. Although that may inevitably be
the outcome, there are conflicting reports from Syria at this time regarding the status of Yabroud.
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David Francis
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An editor-at-large for The Fiscal Times, David Francis has reported from all over the world on issues that range from defense to border
security to transatlantic relations.

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