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Life-Cycle Cost Simulation, a subset of

MonteCarloSimulations TM

LCC*.XLS Version2g July9, 2004 Copyright 1996-2000byBarringer&Associates, Inc.

Software By:
If the error message H. Paul Barringer, P.E.
"Can't resolve circular Barringer & Associates, Inc.
errors" appears, press P.O. Box 3985
escape and then click on Humble, TX 77347-3985 USA
the button "Initalize Phone: 281-852-6810
Program…" which will FAX: 281-852-3749
resolve circular errors. E-MAIL: hpaul@barringer1.com
Web Page: http://www.barringer1.com

Demonstration Disk For MonteCarloSimulationSTM

(Read this information from the lawyers)
Read this narrative (double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower
edge of this block). Do not delete this sheet, you'll need this information at a later
date! This spreadsheet is a Monte Carlo simulation for life cycle cost.

This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 5.0 and above. The simulation
macros won't work in lower revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation.
MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.

Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of
errors and change of features. Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a
commitment to notify users of any changes.Lcc*.xlsThis software is furnished for
demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must
acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies
must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instructions.

Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo
simulations. No warranty of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or
throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all
engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software
tools for safe and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound
engineering and business judgments when Pagestudying
1 any simulation even using
probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL 5.0+
spreadsheets are available at a price of US$40.00 (including shipping & handling).
 Table Of Contents

Return To Banner Page About The Authors

LCC Directory For Monte Why Use Monte Carlo

Carlo Setup Simulations

Table Of Contents
(A quick summary of the models)

Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down, or pull down the lower
edge of this block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the border, hold down the
left mouse key, and drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.

Do not delete this sheet, you may need some of these details later.

#1--Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations provides background details about models.

#2--LCC Directory For Monte Carlo Setup allows rapid movement to each of the setup
sheets used for the model for calculating life cycle costs for pumps.

#3--About The Authors provides some background information

Page 2
 LCC Directory

Life Cycle Cost Directory For Setup & Data Entry

Click on Buttons For Navigation
Go To Spread Sheet Summary --Run
Setup Problem For Simulation
Simulation From This Sheet
Go To Inherent Component Life and Go To Net Present Value Spreadsheet
Effects Of Practices--Data Input --Limited Data Input
Go To Maintenance And Use Practices-- Go To Study Problems--Questions For
Data Input Classroom Simulation
Go To Survey Results--Data Supplied By
Go To Cost Components--Data Input
The Experts
Maintenance Replacement Practices--
Go To Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations
Data Input
Go To Simulation Sheet With Data--No Scratch Sheet --Not Connected To
Data Input & No Operation Buttons Simulation
Life Cycle Cost Simulation
(A little bit of simulation information for orientation)

Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Then slide this sheet
to one side, I.e., click on the border, hold down the left mouse key, and drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.

Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!

This model shows the primary elements in a pump. The items listed are in series. Failure of one item causes the entire system
to fail. The issue is to find failure rates, and costs by year for use in completing the life cycle cost model. This model allows
inclusion of a variety of practices and how they alter the inherent reliability of the pump. Suspensions are allowed for a variety of
maintenance replacement strategies. Production losses can be included in the overall cost. Cost of electricity is also included in
the iteration spreadsheet for Monte Carlo costs.

Each iteration draws a new random life for each component and the age to failure occurs as the life is consumed as the clock
winds down. Excel's RAND() feature produces a random number between 0 and 1 with a uniform chance for an occurrence.
The RAND() number is substituted for the Weibull CDF (which of course varies between 0 and 1). The age to failure time is
obtained by solving the Weibull equation for time: t = η *(ln(1/(1-RAND())))^(1/β )) where RAND() has been substitued for the
CDF.

Notice the reliability and availability calculation summary. High availability values gives you a chance to make money. Low
reliability (I.e., high unreliability) numbers gives you a chance to loose money for outages and repairs. It is not unusual for
industrial applications to show high availability and low reliability for a given mission interval (the situation is often described as a
maintenance problem). Reliability values are often determined by the class of equipment procured and the expected mission
time between "turnarounds" (I.e., renewal).

This model, version 2, is an improvement over version 1 which was built as a training exercise for a Life Cycle Cost Tutorial
presented by Barringer and Weber for the Fifth International Conference on Process Plant Reliability which is organized and
sponsored by Gulf Publishing Company and HYDROCARBON PROCESSING magazine. This conference occuredOctober 2-4,
Page 3
1996 in Houston, TX.

Now pull this information sheet to the side and run the simulation.
 100 hp 8" discharge x 10" suction x 14" case

ANSI Best Practices Installation & Use

Solo Pump Good Practice Replacements

This sheet is a simple report of what settings are used for iterations.
Go to the sheet "Inherent Component Life" and set the conditions.
<--Message for User Defined Details
 Inherent Component Life

100 hp 8" discharge x 10" suction x 14" case 3% loss= 404 hours
ANSI ANSI Enhanced API
Inherent Inherent Inherent
Component Component Component
Reliability Reliability Reliability
beta eta beta eta beta eta
shape factor shape factor location factor location
location shape factor (no
ANSI (no ANSI Enhanced (no API factor
dimensions)
factor (hrs) dimensions)
(hrs) dimensions)
(hrs)
Impeller 2.5 300,000 Impeller 2.5 300,000 Impeller 2.5 400,000
Housing 1.3 300,000 Housing 1.3 300,000 Housing 1.3 400,000
Pump Bearings 1.3 100,000 Pump Bearings 1.3 200,000 Pump Bearings 1.3 400,000
Seals 1.4 100,000 Seals 1.4 200,000 Seals 1.4 400,000
Shafts 1.2 300,000 Shafts 1.2 300,000 Shafts 1.2 400,000
Coupling 2 100,000 Coupling 2 100,000 Coupling 2 300,000
Motor Bearings 1.3 150,000 Motor Bearings 1.3 150,000 Motor Bearings 1.3 150,000
Motor Windings 1 150,000 Motor Windings 1 150,000 Motor Windings 1 150,000
Motor Rotor 1 300,000 Motor Rotor 1 300,000 Motor Rotor 1 300,000
Motor Starter 1.2 300,000 Motor Starter 1.2 300,000 Motor Starter 1.2 300,000

Page 5
 GMP

Hint: Press the F9 key to update spreadsheet

= input variables data
Installation/Use Data For Simulations
This column is L/D
used on Pump Rotational
Best Practices Suction Piping Rotational Foundation
Installation & Use
Inherent Curve % Shaft Grouting
Component Life Straight Alignment Balance Design
Off BEP Alignment
page Runs

Life Monolithic
Use These + 5% to ±0.001 5 Times
Multiplier * L/D = ±0.003 inch Smooth at And
Practices for -10% of inches/inch Equipment
eta From 10 to 12 error 0.0198 ips Adhesive
Simulation BEP error Mass
Practices Epoxy
Impeller 0.9726 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Housing 0.8547 86% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Pump Bearings 0.9712 98% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Seals 0.9677 98% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Shafts 0.9712 98% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Coupling 0.9801 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Bearings 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Windings 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Rotor 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Starter 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

L/D
Pump Rotational
Suction Piping Rotational Foundation
Curve % Shaft Grouting
Straight Alignment Balance Design
Off BEP Alignment
Runs
Monolithic
Resulting + 5% to ±0.001 5 Times
L/D = ±0.003 inch Smooth at And
Best Practices eta -10% of inches/inch Equipment
10 to 12 error 0.0198 ips Adhesive
Multiplier BEP error Mass
Epoxy
Impeller 0.9153 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Housing 0.6173 86% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Pump Bearings 0.6350 98% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Seals 0.8881 98% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Shafts 0.6350 98% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Coupling 0.9017 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Bearings 0.9365 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Windings 0.9900 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Rotor 0.9365 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Motor Starter 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

L/D
Pump Rotational
Suction Piping Rotational Foundation
Curve % Shaft Grouting
Straight Alignment Balance Design
Off BEP Alignment
Runs
Resulting + 10% to ±0.003 3.5 Times Slightly
Better L/D = 6 ±0.010 inch Good at
eta -20% of inches/inch Equipment Pourous But
Practices to 8 error 0.0448 ips
Multiplier BEP error Mass Adhesive
Impeller 0.5319 88% 95% 95% 94% 95% 95% 98%
Housing 0.3350 73% 95% 95% 92% 95% 95% 95%
Pump Bearings 0.2488 79% 90% 88% 88% 90% 90% 90%
Seals 0.2175 88% 90% 90% 84% 90% 90% 90%
Shafts 0.2488 79% 90% 88% 88% 90% 90% 90%
Coupling 0.4872 92% 95% 90% 94% 95% 90% 91%
Motor Bearings 0.4699 94% 93% 94% 97% 95% 90% 90%
Motor Windings 0.7872 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%
Motor Rotor 0.4699 94% 93% 94% 97% 95% 90% 90%
Motor Starter 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

L/D
Pump Rotational
Suction Piping Rotational Foundation
Curve % Shaft Grouting
Straight Alignment Balance Design
Off BEP Alignment
Runs
0.5 Times
Resulting +15% to ±0.009 Cementitous
Good L/D = ±0.125 Rough at Equipment
eta -30% of inches/inch & Low
Practices 1 to 3 inches error 0.248 ips Mass or Stilt-
Multiplier BEP error Adhesion
Mounted
Impeller 0.0573 68% 75% 90% 69% 81% 88% 88%
Housing 0.0509 70% 80% 83% 64% 79% 78% 80%
Pump Bearings 0.0026 65% 60% 58% 40% 61% 50% 55%
Seals 0.0007 51% 60% 40% 40% 64% 55% 55%
Shafts 0.0026 65% 60% 58% 40% 61% 50% 55%
Coupling 0.0436 76% 80% 65% 71% 78% 70% 75%
Motor Bearings 0.0405 78% 80% 55% 80% 75% 60% 60%
Motor Windings 0.3958 97% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 98%
Motor Rotor 0.0405 78% 80% 55% 80% 75% 60% 60%
Motor Starter 1.0000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

L/D
Pump Rotational
Suction Piping Rotational Foundation
Curve % Shaft Grouting
Straight Alignment Balance Design
Off BEP Alignment
Runs
Resulting
User Defined
eta ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Practices
Multiplier
Impeller 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Housing 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pump Bearings 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Seals 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Shafts 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Coupling 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Motor Bearings 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Motor Windings 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Motor Rotor 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Motor Starter 0.0000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Page 6
 Maint. Replacement Practices

Hint: Press the F9 key to update spreadsheet

= input variables data Table must be filled with 0's or 1's!!!
Use These Conditions For Maintenance Replacements During Simulations: 1=Replace, 0=Do Not Replace
Good Practice Pump Motor Motor Motor Motor
Replacements Impeller Housing Seals Shafts Coupling
Bearings Bearings Windings Rotor Starter
See Impeller 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N6:O14 Housing 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
For An Pump Bearings 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Example Seals 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Of How Shafts 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
The Table Coupling 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
Functions Motor Bearings 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Motor Windings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Motor Rotor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Motor Starter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Good Practices To Fix Each Component When Broken Strategy Plus Other Associated Components: 1=Replace, 0=Do Not Replace
Pump Motor Motor Motor Motor
Impeller Housing Seals Shafts Coupling
Bearings Bearings Windings Rotor Starter
Impeller 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Housing 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pump Bearings 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Seals 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Shafts 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Coupling 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
Motor Bearings 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Motor Windings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Motor Rotor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Motor Starter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Fix When Each Component When Broken Strategy: 1=Replace, 0=Do Not Replace
Pump Motor Motor Motor Motor
Impeller Housing Seals Shafts Coupling
Bearings Bearings Windings Rotor Starter
Impeller 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Housing 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pump Bearings 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Seals 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shafts 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Coupling 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Motor Bearings 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Motor Windings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Motor Rotor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Motor Starter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

User Defined Replacement Conditions: 1=Replace, 0=Do Not Replace

Pump Motor Motor Motor Motor
Impeller Housing Seals Shafts Coupling
Bearings Bearings Windings Rotor Starter
Impeller 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Housing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Pump Bearings 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Seals 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Shafts 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Coupling 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Motor Bearings 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Motor Windings 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Motor Rotor 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Motor Starter 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Page 7
 Cost Components

Component Replacement Costs-- User Defined Life Replacement Cost and

2 see section J27:AC37 for details
ANSI ANSI Enhanced API
Data Duration:
5 5 5 40 Impeller
The item that failed carries 8 8 8 30 Housing
the labor + expense charges 7 7 7 12 Pump Bearings
The unfailed item (suspension) 6 6 6 12 Seals
does not carry labor and 8 8 8 30 Shafts
expense chrges 2 2 2 10 Coupling
6 7 8 30 Motor Bearings
6 7 8 120 Motor Windings
6 7 8 40 Motor Rotor
4 4 4 1 Motor Starter
6 6 6 12 Motor Assy

Page 8
 Simulation Sheet With Data

B C D E
53 L+e+m m w/o(l+e)
54 Replacement Costs
Costs For Costs For
55 Downtime hours
Replacement Cost: Failure Suspensions
56 Impeller $4,100 $3,300 5
57 Housing $5,400 $4,000 8
58 Pump Bearings $1,175 $375 7
59 Seals $2,375 $1,575 6
60 Shafts $3,800 $2,800 8
61 Coupling $1,500 $700 2
62 Motor Bearings $1,175 $375 6
63 Motor Windings $2,500 $1,700 6
64 Motor Rotor $3,000 $2,200 6
65 Motor Starter $675 $575 4
66 Motor Assy $11,300 $10,500 6

67

Page 9
 Spread Sheet Summary

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
9 Results from current itertions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
10 Maximum Number Failure Cost $s #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11 Spreadsheet Of Power Cost $s #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
12 Validity (yrs) Iterations Grand Total Cost $s #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
13 Err:523 #VALUE! 1 Yr. Reliability #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
14 Err:523 0 1 Yr. Availability #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
15 Err:523 0 Mt'ce Down Hrs #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
16 $(192,613) <--NPV Quick Summary
17 Maximum Spreadsheet 7/9/2004 14:55 <--Iteration Start Time Summary Of Failure Costs Per Run
18 Validity (yrs) For #VALUE! <--~Time To Complete 5 Trials (h:mm:ss) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
19 100 Failures # Iterations
20 161.9 1000 Trial #1 Failure Costs $7,467 $7,858 $10,430 $10,095 $10,563 $11,456 $11,283 $10,969 $11,775 $11,711 $11,163 $11,920 $11,622 $11,525 $12,005 $12,556 $12,405 $11,765 $11,126 $11,937
21 155.8 1000 Trial #2 Failure Costs $6,939 $8,219 $10,131 $10,133 $10,229 $10,814 $10,958 $11,471 $11,146 $11,364 $10,949 $11,490 $11,732 $11,085 $10,919 $11,520 $12,461 $12,235 $11,525 $12,575
22 162.4 1000 Trial #3 Failure Costs $6,946 $8,260 $9,136 $10,677 $11,133 $10,212 $11,098 $11,808 $11,716 $12,657 $11,817 $11,432 $12,429 $10,762 $12,219 $12,015 $11,840 $11,457 $12,322 $12,580
23 166.1 1000 Trial #4 Failure Costs $6,755 $9,126 $9,478 $9,997 $11,174 $10,981 $11,400 $11,931 $11,198 $11,063 $11,648 $11,546 $12,722 $11,421 $12,471 $11,159 $12,256 $11,472 $11,423 $12,652
24 163.4 1000 Trial #5 Failure Costs $6,536 $8,781 $9,440 $10,737 $10,198 $10,930 $10,804 $10,806 $11,693 $11,608 $11,119 $11,313 $11,843 $11,905 $12,113 $11,663 $12,175 $11,866 $10,686 $12,067
25 Grand Average Failure Costs $11,022 Average Of Failure Costs $6,929 $8,449 $9,723 $10,328 $10,659 $10,879 $11,109 $11,397 $11,506 $11,681 $11,339 $11,540 $12,070 $11,340 $11,945 $11,783 $12,228 $11,759 $11,417 $12,362
26 155.8 1 Std. Deviation $344 $502 $536 $350 $473 $446 $240 $498 $307 $600 $373 $229 $480 $436 $599 $530 $245 $321 $602 $333
27 #VALUE!
28 1000 Summary Of Power Cost Per Run
29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
30
31 Trial #1 Power Costs $23,214 $23,219 $23,232 $23,208 $23,200 $23,198 $23,221 $23,221 $23,252 $23,210 $23,205 $23,187 $23,198 $23,249 $23,199 $23,162 $23,225 $23,192 $23,224 $23,212
32 Trial #2 Power Costs $23,209 $23,214 $23,208 $23,250 $23,231 $23,260 $23,193 $23,193 $23,222 $23,233 $23,183 $23,234 $23,156 $23,219 $23,180 $23,242 $23,244 $23,183 $23,213 $23,235
33 Trial #3 Power Costs $23,214 $23,210 $23,205 $23,229 $23,225 $23,231 $23,202 $23,202 $23,240 $23,255 $23,211 $23,223 $23,220 $23,217 $23,206 $23,197 $23,187 $23,214 $23,240 $23,246
34 Trial #4 Power Costs $23,224 $23,196 $23,242 $23,221 $23,192 $23,229 $23,214 $23,214 $23,216 $23,226 $23,205 $23,206 $23,182 $23,235 $23,207 $23,257 $23,174 $23,249 $23,234 $23,207
35 Trial #5 Power Costs $23,227 $23,215 $23,257 $23,233 $23,186 $23,246 $23,250 $23,250 $23,204 $23,234 $23,227 $23,229 $23,219 $23,191 $23,244 $23,225 $23,201 $23,244 $23,184 $23,179
36 Grand Average Power Costs $23,217 Average Of Power Costs $23,218 $23,211 $23,229 $23,228 $23,207 $23,233 $23,216 $23,216 $23,227 $23,232 $23,206 $23,216 $23,195 $23,222 $23,207 $23,217 $23,206 $23,216 $23,219 $23,216
37 1 Std. Deviation $8 $9 $22 $15 $20 $23 $22 $22 $19 $16 $16 $20 $27 $22 $23 $38 $28 $30 $22 $26
38
39 Summary Of Grand Total Costs
40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
41
42 Trial #1 Grand Total Costs $30,681 $31,077 $33,661 $33,303 $33,763 $34,654 $34,504 $34,190 $35,027 $34,921 $34,368 $35,107 $34,820 $34,774 $35,204 $35,718 $35,630 $34,957 $34,350 $35,149
43 Trial #2 Grand Total Costs $30,148 $31,434 $33,339 $33,383 $33,461 $34,074 $34,151 $34,665 $34,369 $34,598 $34,132 $34,724 $34,888 $34,304 $34,099 $34,762 $35,705 $35,418 $34,738 $35,810
44 Trial #3 Grand Total Costs $30,160 $31,470 $32,341 $33,905 $34,358 $33,443 $34,300 $35,010 $34,956 $35,912 $35,028 $34,655 $35,649 $33,979 $35,424 $35,212 $35,027 $34,671 $35,562 $35,827
45 Trial #4 Grand Total Costs $29,979 $32,323 $32,720 $33,218 $34,366 $34,210 $34,615 $35,146 $34,414 $34,290 $34,853 $34,752 $35,905 $34,657 $35,678 $34,416 $35,431 $34,721 $34,658 $35,859
46 Cells D47:AI47 used for NPV spreadsheet calculations Trial #5 Grand Total Costs $29,763 $31,996 $32,697 $33,970 $33,384 $34,176 $34,054 $34,056 $34,897 $34,841 $34,345 $34,543 $35,062 $35,096 $35,357 $34,888 $35,376 $35,111 $33,870 $35,247
47 Grand Average All Costs $34,239 Average Of Grand Total Costs $30,146 $31,660 $32,952 $33,556 $33,866 $34,111 $34,325 $34,613 $34,733 $34,912 $34,545 $34,756 $35,265 $34,562 $35,153 $34,999 $35,434 $34,975 $34,636 $35,578
48 1 Std. Deviation $339 $495 $535 $354 $474 $435 $235 $483 $315 $611 $377 $212 $484 $432 $613 $492 $265 $305 $620 $349
49
50 Estimated Reliability For A One Year Mission Time
51 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
52
53 Trial #1 1 Yr Reliability 80.57% 78.35% 71.18% 71.68% 69.49% 69.00% 67.84% 69.77% 67.23% 66.90% 67.17% 67.23% 66.37% 64.79% 65.31% 63.64% 63.32% 65.57% 67.23% 64.60%
54 Trial #2 1 Yr Reliability 79.93% 78.11% 71.68% 70.96% 70.26% 69.63% 69.84% 67.10% 67.23% 67.17% 67.37% 65.70% 64.60% 67.10% 67.03% 67.77% 64.34% 65.12% 66.70% 66.17%
55 Trial #3 1 Yr Reliability 81.22% 76.87% 75.20% 71.18% 69.35% 69.14% 68.52% 66.97% 67.23% 63.13% 66.03% 67.10% 66.50% 68.45% 65.44% 65.70% 66.03% 66.90% 64.27% 63.44%
56 Trial #4 1 Yr Reliability 80.82% 75.35% 72.69% 72.33% 68.45% 68.18% 67.98% 66.30% 65.31% 68.94% 64.73% 67.30% 63.83% 66.83% 64.60% 67.03% 64.27% 65.44% 66.63% 63.64%
57 Trial #5 1 Yr Reliability 80.49% 74.83% 73.64% 71.25% 71.53% 67.50% 68.32% 69.42% 66.56% 65.64% 67.17% 67.30% 64.73% 65.25% 65.12% 65.31% 63.57% 65.44% 68.05% 64.92%
58 Grand Average 1 Yr Reliability 68.36% Average Of 1 Yr Reliability 80.61% 76.70% 72.88% 71.48% 69.82% 68.69% 68.50% 67.91% 66.72% 66.35% 66.49% 66.93% 65.20% 66.48% 65.50% 65.89% 64.31% 65.69% 66.58% 64.55%
59 1 Std. Deviation 0.47% 1.59% 1.61% 0.54% 1.15% 0.84% 0.80% 1.57% 0.84% 2.15% 1.12% 0.69% 1.17% 1.48% 0.91% 1.60% 1.06% 0.69% 1.41% 1.10%
60
61 Estimated Availability For One Year Period
62 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
63
64 Trial #1 1 Yr Availability 99.99% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97%
65 Trial #2 1 Yr Availability 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97%
66 Trial #3 1 Yr Availability 99.99% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97%
67 Trial #4 1 Yr Availability 99.99% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97%
68 Trial #5 1 Yr Availability 99.99% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97%
69 Grand Average 1 Yr Availability 99.98% Average Of 1 Yr Availability 99.99% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97%
70 1 Std. Deviation 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
71
72 Estimated Maintenance Downtime Hours During The Year
73 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
74
75 Trail #1 Mntce Down Hours 1.31 1.46 1.99 1.88 2.03 2.12 2.17 1.93 2.15 2.21 2.18 2.12 2.28 2.33 2.36 2.52 2.52 2.28 2.14 2.38
76 Trail #2 Mntce Down Hours 1.34 1.47 1.92 1.92 1.94 2.04 2.01 2.18 2.12 2.21 2.16 2.17 2.42 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.44 2.34 2.24 2.24
77 Trail #3 Mntce Down Hours 1.24 1.55 1.65 1.91 2.11 2.04 2.10 2.21 2.17 2.49 2.33 2.27 2.26 2.01 2.26 2.25 2.30 2.20 2.42 2.50
78 Trail #4 Mntce Down Hours 1.28 1.63 1.85 1.85 2.16 2.13 2.10 2.35 2.33 2.02 2.37 2.22 2.41 2.21 2.35 2.20 2.40 2.34 2.23 2.51
79 Trail #5 Mntce Down Hours 1.31 1.69 1.71 1.97 1.90 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.29 2.31 2.19 2.17 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.32 2.45 2.33 2.06 2.39
80 Grand Average Mntce Down Hrs 2.12 Average Of Mntce Down Hours 1.30 1.56 1.82 1.90 2.03 2.10 2.09 2.14 2.21 2.25 2.25 2.19 2.35 2.22 2.30 2.29 2.42 2.30 2.22 2.40
81 1 Std. Deviation 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.05 0.11 0.05 0.05 0.16 0.09 0.17 0.10 0.06 0.07 0.14 0.09 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.14 0.11

Page 10
 NPV

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y
1
2
3
4
5 Hint: Press the F9 key to update spreadsheet
6 See NPV results in cell "D44" = input variables data
7 Input Information For NPV
8 The worksheet for NPV calculation below Year
9 Cost Elements Year--> 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
10 Acquisition Costs:
11 Program Management
12 Engineering Design
13 Engineering Data
14 Spare Parts & Logistics Scratch Sheet
15 Facilities & Construction For NPV
16 Initial Training Calculations,
17 Technical Data --See D44--
18 Capital Equipment For Summary $43,645
19 Documentation Costs
20 Sustaining Costs:
21 Costs From Model (see Spread Sheet Summary D47:AI47) $30,146 $31,660 $32,952 $33,556 $33,866 $34,111 $34,325 $34,613 $34,733 $34,912 $34,545 $34,756 $35,265 $34,562 $35,153 $34,999 $35,434 $34,975 $34,636 $35,578
22 Ongoing Training Costs
23 Close Out Costs:
24 Disposal
25 Total Costs (Less Capital) $- $30,146 $31,660 $32,952 $33,556 $33,866 $34,111 $34,325 $34,613 $34,733 $34,912 $34,545 $34,756 $35,265 $34,562 $35,153 $34,999 $35,434 $34,975 $34,636 $35,578
26 Tax Provision % Used With Profit before Tax 38% <--Press F9 key to update after change
27 Discount Rate Use For NPV 12% <--Press F9 key to update after change
28 Project Life (yrs) 20 <--Press F9 key to update after change

Best Practices
Good Practice
29 ANSI Solo Pump Installation & <--Conditions For This Study
Replacements
Use

30 Net Present Value Calculations:

31 Year
32 NPV Elements Year--> 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
33 Capital $43,645
34 Costs $- $30,146 $31,660 $32,952 $33,556 $33,866 $34,111 $34,325 $34,613 $34,733 $34,912 $34,545 $34,756 $35,265 $34,562 $35,153 $34,999 $35,434 $34,975 $34,636 $35,578
35 Savings (enter as a positive number)
36 Depreciation (straight line) $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182
37 Profit b/4 Taxes $(32,328) $(33,842) $(35,134) $(35,738) $(36,049) $(36,294) $(36,507) $(36,795) $(36,915) $(37,095) $(36,727) $(36,938) $(37,447) $(36,744) $(37,335) $(37,182) $(37,616) $(37,158) $(36,818) $(37,761)
38 Tax Provision @ 38% of Pb/4 Tax $12,285 $12,860 $13,351 $13,580 $13,698 $13,792 $13,873 $13,982 $14,028 $14,096 $13,956 $14,037 $14,230 $13,963 $14,187 $14,129 $14,294 $14,120 $13,991 $14,349
39 Net Income-Profit or (loss) NPV $(20,044) $(20,982) $(21,783) $(22,158) $(22,350) $(22,502) $(22,634) $(22,813) $(22,887) $(22,999) $(22,771) $(22,902) $(23,217) $(22,781) $(23,148) $(23,053) $(23,322) $(23,038) $(22,827) $(23,412)
40 Add Back Depreciation Calculations $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182 $2,182
41 Cash Flow $(43,645) $(17,861) $(18,800) $(19,601) $(19,975) $(20,168) $(20,320) $(20,452) $(20,631) $(20,705) $(20,816) $(20,589) $(20,720) $(21,035) $(20,599) $(20,965) $(20,870) $(21,140) $(20,855) $(20,645) $(21,229)
42 Discount Factors @ Rate Above--net values 1.00 0.89 0.80 0.71 0.64 0.57 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10
43 Present Value $(43,645) $(15,948) $(14,987) $(13,951) $(12,695) $(11,444) $(10,295) $(9,252) $(8,332) $(7,466) $(6,702) $(5,919) $(5,318) $(4,821) $(4,215) $(3,830) $(3,404) $(3,079) $(2,712) $(2,397) $(2,201)
44 Net Present Value--> $(192,613) N/A <--Internal Rate Of Return (requires at least one positive number and one negative number in row 43 to make a calculation--may also require a quess at the value)
45 @ Discount Rate = 12% $(15,948) $(14,987) $(13,951) $(12,695) $(11,444) $(10,295) $(9,252) $(8,332) $(7,466) $(6,702) $(5,919) $(5,318) $(4,821) $(4,215) $(3,830) $(3,404) $(3,079) $(2,712) $(2,397) $(2,201)
46 Summary of simulted indicators Year--> 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Average Of
Grand Average
47 $34,239 Grand Total $30,146 $31,660 $32,952 $33,556 $33,866 $34,111 $34,325 $34,613 $34,733 $34,912 $34,545 $34,756 $35,265 $34,562 $35,153 $34,999 $35,434 $34,975 $34,636 $35,578
All Costs
Costs

Grand Average 1 Average Of 1

48 68.36% 80.61% 76.70% 72.88% 71.48% 69.82% 68.69% 68.50% 67.91% 66.72% 66.35% 66.49% 66.93% 65.20% 66.48% 65.50% 65.89% 64.31% 65.69% 66.58% 64.55%
Yr Reliability Yr Reliability

Average Of 1
Grand Average 1
49 99.98% Yr 99.99% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.98% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97% 99.97%
Yr Availability
Availability

Average Of
Grand Average
50 2.12 Mntce Down 1.30 1.56 1.82 1.90 2.03 2.10 2.09 2.14 2.21 2.25 2.25 2.19 2.35 2.22 2.30 2.29 2.42 2.30 2.22 2.40
Mntce Down Hrs
Hours

51 Effectiveness 68.35% Effectiveness ~= Reliability * Availability

52 $(192,613) NPV
53 1,000 # Iterations for this study * 5 trials
54

Page 11
 Study Problems

Best NPV? Best Trade-off?

Run 500 iterations (~5 minutes @ 200MHz Pentium) (if time permits--do 1,000 iterations)--do five times and average the results to answer this question:
Problem #1
Setup For Problem 1: Dual Pump + Good Maintenance Replacement Practices

For ANSI Pump-- Average of values for

a) Best Installation & Use Reliability Availability
NPV =
b) Better Installation & Use
NPV =
c) Good Installation & Use
NPV =

For ANSI Enhanced Pump-- Average of values for

d) Best Installation & Use Reliability Availability

NPV =
e) Better Installation & Use

NPV =
f) Good Installation & Use

NPV =

For API Pump-- Average of values for

g) Best Installation & Use Reliability Availability
NPV =
h) Better Installation & Use + Good Maintenance Replacement Practices
NPV =
i) Good Installation & Use + Good Maintenance Replacement Practices
NPV =

Problem #2
Setup For Problem 2: Dual Pump + Fix When Broken Replacement Practices

For ANSI Pump-- Average of values for

j) Best Installation & Use Reliability Availability

NPV =
k) Better Installation & Use

NPV =

l) Good Installation & Use

NPV =

For ANSI Enhanced Pump-- Average of values for

m) Best Installation & Use Reliability Availability

NPV =
n) Better Installation & Use

NPV =
o) Good Installation & Use

NPV =

For API Pump-- Average of values for

p) Best Installation & Use Reliability Availability

NPV =
q) Better Installation & Use

NPV =

r) Good Installation & Use

NPV =

Problem #3
Setup For Problem 3: Solo Pump + Good Maintenance Replacement Practices

For ANSI Pump-- Average of values for

Page 12
 A B C D E F G H I
97 Summary of Practices for reporting purposes by component & multiplication model
98 Suction Pipe Rotational Align Pipe Alignment Balance Foundation Grout

Monolithic
Best Practices Best Practices =
Best Practices Component Best Practices Best Practices Best Practices Best Practices Epoxy Grout-No
99 = -10% to 10 to 12
Summary multiplier ±0.001" ±0.003" = 0.0198 ips = 5*mass voids, proper
+5% Of BEP L/D
pour & cure

100 Cost as % base 225.00% 120.00% 130.00% 130.00% 120.00% 250.00% 200.00%
101 Impeller life 0.9153 96.25% 99.25% 99.50% 99.50% 98.50% 99.00% 99.25%
102 Housing life 0.6173 66.08% 99.25% 99.50% 99.50% 98.00% 98.50% 98.50%
103 Pump Brg life 0.6350 70.07% 99.00% 99.00% 99.00% 98.00% 98.00% 97.25%
104 Pump Seal life 0.8881 97.50% 99.00% 99.00% 99.00% 98.00% 98.00% 97.75%
105 Coupling life 0.9017 98.00% 99.50% 98.75% 100.00% 98.00% 98.00% 97.50%
106 Motor Brg life 0.9365 100.00% 100.00% 99.50% 100.00% 98.00% 98.00% 98.00%
107 Mtr. Winding life 0.9900 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.00%
108 Mtr. Starter life 1.0000 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
109

Better Practices Better Practices Better Better Slightly-pourous

Better Practices Component Better Practices Better Practices
110 = -20% to = 6 to 8 Practices = Practices = adhering epoxy
Summary multiplier ±0.003" ±0.010"
+10% Of BEP L/D 0.0448 ips 3.5*mass grout

111 Cost as % base 133.00% 110.00% 120.00% 115.00% 110.00% 150.00% 135.00%
112 Impeller life 0.5319 85.00% 91.25% 95.00% 91.75% 90.00% 94.50% 92.50%
113 Housing life 0.3350 57.14% 92.00% 95.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.50% 91.50%
114 Pump Brg life 0.2488 61.79% 87.00% 85.00% 85.00% 85.00% 90.00% 83.75%
115 Pump Seal life 0.2175 77.50% 84.50% 70.00% 81.00% 82.50% 88.75% 80.00%
116 Coupling life 0.4872 87.50% 92.50% 90.00% 91.75% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00%
117 Motor Brg life 0.4699 91.25% 90.00% 89.50% 95.00% 90.00% 88.75% 84.25%
118 Mtr. Winding life 0.7872 99.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 95.00% 90.00% 93.00%
119 Mtr. Starter life 1.0000 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
120

Good Practices Good Practices Good Cementitious,

Good Practices Component Good Practices Good Practices Good Practices
121 = -30% to = 1 to 3 Practices = Low Adhesion
Summary multiplier ±0.009" ±0.125" = 0.2480 ips
+15% Of BEP L/D 0.5*mass Grout

122 Cost as % base 73.33% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
123 Impeller life 0.0573 35.00% 67.50% 86.25% 55.00% 77.50% 80.00% 82.50%
124 Housing life 0.0509 50.00% 77.50% 81.25% 55.00% 71.25% 60.00% 68.75%
125 Pump Brg life 0.0026 45.00% 50.00% 40.00% 40.00% 48.75% 37.50% 40.00%
126 Pump Seal life 0.0007 28.75% 42.00% 25.00% 37.50% 52.50% 32.50% 37.50%
127 Coupling life 0.0436 62.50% 80.00% 58.75% 63.75% 67.50% 58.75% 58.75%
128 Motor Brg life 0.0405 70.00% 74.00% 51.25% 80.00% 67.50% 52.50% 53.75%
129 Mtr. Winding life 0.3958 80.00% 100.00% 97.50% 99.50% 85.00% 75.00% 80.00%
130 Mtr. Starter life 1.0000 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
 Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

(A little bit of Monte Carlo simulation information for orientation--see readling list at the end of this information)

Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Then slide this sheet to
one side, I.e., click on the border, hold down the left mouse key, and drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.

Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!

1. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations use random numbers and math/statistical models to simulate (imitate) reality. We make
assumptions about how a model behaves (based on samples of data or engineering assumptions) to gain an understanding about
how the corresponding real life system behaves.

2. Most real-world systems are too complex for analytical evaluations. Models must be studied with many simulations to estimate
real-life conditions. MC models are computer intensive and require many iterations to get a central tendency and many more
iterations to get confidence limit bounds.

3. MC models help solve complicated deterministic problems (I.e., no random components) and probabilistic (stochastic) problems
(I.e., contains random components). Deterministic systems usually have one answer and perform the same way each time.
Probabilistic systems have a range of answers with some central tendency. MC models using probabilistic numbers never give the
same exact results. When you re-run simulations you'll never get the same exact answers because random numbers are used for
the simulation. Look for the central tendency of the numbers, search for an understanding of the scatter in the data, and study the
significant numbers in the results.

4. Each MC run produces only estimates of real world results--better models give better results and garbage inputs give garbage
outputs. If the model is not a "valid" description of reality, then no amount of numbers will give the "right" answer! MC models must
have credibility checks for reality--don't substitue computer generated numbers for good sense. If the model is not valid, no amount
of simulations will improve conclusions. The results must make sense and represent reality and MC scatter should resemble the real
system variation.

5. MC models allow simulations to get answers at low cost (during our own life time) without building the system and then incurring
the expense to operate the system. MC estimates of "ball park" numbers are obtained in a short period of time. This is far better
than the perfect answer obtained 100 years into the future!! You'll never get a risk free answer to your problems. More data, more
simulations, and more sophisticated models reduce your overall risks---if you have enough time and money.

6. MC models in this file will (for the most part) use the Weibull equation (and the special condition case where b=1 for the
exponential distribution. The RAND() operator from EXCEL will be used to draw a random number between 0 and 1.

7. The Weibull equation used for simulations has been solved for time where t=h*((ln(1/(1-F(t))))^(1/b)). To make use of random
numbers, the cummulative distribution function (CDF) is represented by F(t). The F(t) is simulated by use of the RAND() operator
since it also varies between 0 and 1 as does the F(t).

8. Many statistical distributions are available for MC models, choose: Add-Ins from Tools menu, select Analysis ToolPak box from
Add-ins box and click OK. From Tools menu, choose Data Analysis and select Random Number Generation and click OK. EXCEL's
random number generator allows these distributions: Uniform, Normal, Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Patterned, and Discrete.
Remember we'll generally use the Weibull Equation for our MC's and RAND() function in lieu of the CDF.

9. To run MC models in EXCEL 5.0+, make sure you are set-up as follows: from the Tools menu, choose Options, from the "file"
cards, choose Calculations--then click x's for Manual, Iterations, and set iterations to 1. During the initialization (when the Initiliaze
and Go To The Table Of Contents key is pressed) the spreadsheet will do this for you automatically.

10. A mistake often make by beginning modelers is to include an excessive amount of model details. Start simple. Build to
complexity after everyone understands what's happening and agrees the model is in reasonable agreement with reality.

11. Reading list for simulations:

Abernethy, Dr. Robert B., 1994, The New Weibull Handbook, Dr. Robert B. Abernethy author and publisher,
phone 407-842-4082, refer to section 4.5 and 4.6 for Monte Carlo simulations, North Palm Beach, FL.
Hamming, R.W., 1973, Numerical Methods for Scientist and Engineers, 2nd Edition, Dover Publications, New York.
Henley, Ernest J. and Hiromitsu Kumanmoto, 1991, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, IEEE Press, New York.
Law, Averill M. and W. David Kelton, 1991, Simulation Modeling & Analysis, 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Mann, Nancy R., Ray E. Schafer, and Nozer D. Singpurwalla, 1974, Methods for Statistical Analysis of Reliability
and Life Data, John Wiley & Sons, New York. <---This is a difficult text book!!!!
Newendorp, Paul D., 1975, Decision Analysis For Petroleum Exploration, PennWell Books, Tulsa, OK.
Ragsdale, Cliff T., 1995, Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis--A Practical Introduction to
Management Science, Course Technology, Inc., Cambridge, MA, ISBN 1-56527-277-3 <---Lots of how to do
examples.

Page 14
 About The Author

BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION-

H. Paul Barringer
Manufacturing, engineering, and reliability consultant and author of the basic reliability training
course Reliability Engineering Principles. More than thirty-five years of engineering and
manufacturing experience in design, production, quality, maintenance, and reliability of technical
products. Contributor to The New Weibull Handbook, a reliability engineering text published by Dr.
Robert B. Abernethy. Named as inventor in six U.S.A. Patents. Registered Professional Engineer in
Texas. Education includes a MS and BS in Mechanical Engineering from North Carolina State
University, and participated in Harvard University's three week Manufacturing Strategy conference.
Visit the world wide web site at http://www.barringer1.com for other background details or send e-
mail to hpaul@barringer1.com concerning LCC or reliability issues.

6/9/98

Page 15
 n - (__
1
)
ηsystem = (Σ i=1
1
__
ηi
β ) β

Weibull Closure Property

An API pump has two sets of ball bearings.
Each bearing is designed for a B-10 life of 20,000 hours with a typical Weibull shape factor of β = 1.3.
What is the system result so the bearings are reduced to a single element?

The Weibull CDF equation is: F(t) = 1-e^(-(t/η)^β)

Given B-10 = CDF = 10% at 20,000 hrs with β = 1.3, then solve for η:
Rearrange the equation to get e^(-(t/η)^β) = 1-F(t)
Taking natural logs of both sides of the equation to get (t/η)^β =ln(1/( 1-F(t)))
Thus t = η∗(ln(1/( 1-F(t))))^(1/β) or η = t/(ln(1/(1-F(t))))^(1/β)
Then: η = t/(ln(1/(1-F(t))))^(1/β) = 20,000/(ln(1/(1 - 0.1)))^(1/1.3) = 112,932 hours for a single bearing
Find the system characteristic value:
ηsystem = ((1/112932^1.3) + (1/112932^1.3) )^(-1/1.3)
ηsystem = 66,261 hours for two bearings in a set