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Traffic forecasts

Ankara
November 2011
Questions
How do we estimate how much traffic will move by
rail?

What are the main factors that will affect the
amount of traffic carried

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Traffic Forecasts
The basic approach for passenger and freight
forecasts is the same
The total market is established from official sources,
industry information and other research
The market is segmented based on its characteristics
Future traffic growth is estimated looking at past trends
and expected developments
The rail share is estimated by considering the relative
attractiveness of the rail mode in each market segment

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Freight forecasts




... the best way to understand their needs is through
interviews with shippers and customers









Railways cater for a few big freight customers
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Opportunities for Freight
Existing traffic

Potential for Containers

Potential for Minerals

Other traffic
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Existing rail traffic
Railway operators normally keep comprehensive
station to station data
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Traffic on competitors
Import-export freight movements can be obtained
from customs data
Actual origin-destination may not show
Often by value rather than tonnage
Road freight is notoriously difficult to obtain
Sometimes there are national transport studies
Surveys may be able to be used
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Opportunities for Freight
Existing traffic

Potential for Containers

Potential for Minerals

Other traffic

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Container Traffic


Import export and intermodal containers provide
one of the best opportunities for rail to compete in
the high-value goods market




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Container Economics
Hypothetical rail and feeder ship operations ex Salalah
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Opportunities for Freight
Existing trade within CGG

Potential for Containers

Potential for Minerals

Other traffic
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Minerals
Minerals are normally a potential market for rail

Most minerals are low value per tonne
transport costs are a large proportion of the delivered cost

Two markets
Local consumption (gypsum, limestone, iron ore)
Minerals for export





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Mineral Economics
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Opportunities for Freight
Existing traffic

Potential for Containers

Potential for Minerals

Other traffic
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Other traffic
Other bulk traffic
Aluminum and steel products
Bitumen
Cement
Fuel
General traffic
Generally proportional to population
Road has advantages even on long hauls but rail can
compete in some markets
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Scenarios
To cope with uncertainty, traffic can be classified in
several ways:
Existing (on rail)
Existing (on truck or ship)
Depends on new developments (eg minerals)
Depends on economic conditions

Ideally forecasts should be prepared to enable
different combinations of assumptions to be tested

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Growth Rate
Freight traffic is closely related to economic activity
Elasticity of freight traffic to GDP normally close to 1.0

Import export freight usually grows faster if the
economy is developing
Can be up to double the national growth rate
Higher growth cannot be assumed to last for ever!

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Passenger forecasts
Future rail traffic will come from :
Evolution of existing rail traffic

Diverted traffic from other modes

Generated traffic (people who were not travelling before)
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Existing traffic - rail
Railway operators usually have good data on station
to station travel
May not reflect true origins and destinations

If the proposed service is significantly different (eg
high speed) other country experience can be a guide
to how the market will change
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Existing traffic - air
Airline data may be commercially sensitive but
airports normally publish arrivals and departures

In the Gulf we estimated air travel by building a
gravity model from published statistics and validated
it against airline frequencies

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Existing traffic - road
Road data is generally the most difficult to obtain
Customs data can help with international travel
Roadside interview surveys are suitable for car travel
but can be difficult for buses
Bus timetables give some indication
Others may have undertaken national transport
studies

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Committed and expected developments
Economic growth
Passenger traffic generally increases slightly faster than the
growth in GDP/person.
Population growth
Passenger traffic generally increases in proportion to
population growth
New development s
In the Gulf study a new city of 100,000 people was expected
in Duqm, midway between Muscat and Salalah





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Rail share - traffic drivers
Traffic is dependent on:
Travel time
Time to access rail station
Service frequency
Fare : lower rail fares increase rail traffic but decrease
revenues
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Market Share and Travel Distances
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Travel Distance (km)
M
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S
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Car
Bus
Air
Rail
Forecasting model
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The model


Socio-economics database :
-GDP growth
-Value of Time
Existing Traffic database :
-OD Matrix for each mode
-Travel Times and Costs
Passenger Traffic Forecast
-Evolution from base to reference situation
-Modal Choice Structure and Parameters
-Assignment Procedure on the rail missions
-Evolution after project completion
Outputs for other models :
-Rail OD Matrix, trains-h, trains-km, rolling stock, revenues
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