PROFITABILITY ENHANCEMENT STRATEGY THROUGH CAPACITY EXPANSION

AND MARKET EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION

(CASE STUDY: ACQUISITION OF THANG LONG CEMENT COMPANY VIETNAM
BY PT SEMEN INDONESIA TBK)

Anandita Ade Putri
Schoold of Business and Management
Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
ade.putri@sbm-itb.ac.id
Abstract - Cement industry is expected to be grow respectively high due to demand for house building and
infrastructure needs. Indonesia and Vietnam, as part of Southeast Asia region, are facing different kind of
market condition. PT Semen Indonesia Tbk is Indonesias top leader in cement industry, who had invested
major investment by acquiring major shares ownership of Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam, back in late
2012. This acquisition strategy was intended to enhance profitability and reach Southeasr Asia market. One
year after the acquisition happened, this strategy needs to be analyzed whether it already goes perfectly as
what expected or needed some improvement regarding companys profitability growth. By doing Discounted
Cash Flow valuation with three different scenarios; first is, when each companies stand alone independently
(before acquisition), second scenario is PT Semen Indonesia Tbk acquired Thang Long Cement Company
(current condition) and third scenario is post-acquisition analysis after acquisition with proposed strategy on
capacity expansion and market export diversification. This final project suggested Thang Long Cement
Companies to expand capacity from 2,3 mt/year to 4 mt/year, to improve sales and also open more exporting
market. Vietnams cement industry is having excess supply, thats why exporting cement products to another
country is important. Indonesia can also fulfill its massive demand of cement from Vietnamese cement
product, which it related to PT Semen Indonesia revenue and inventory availability. Thang Long Cement
Companies was acquired undervalued with price of US$157million, but it doesnt mean the company suffered
loss from the transactions. PT Semen Indonesia Tbk did major improvement on management structure,
business process and debt refinancing for Thang Long Cement Companies. Due diligence was also done before
choosing Thang Long Cement Companies as the targetted company, based on its financial ratio analysis which
also calculated in this final project. Generally, this acquisition between PT Semen Indonesia and Thang Long
Cement Company is a right decision and still possible to reach optimality in profitability enhancement through
proposed strategy in expansion and market export diversification. Both companies also proved having
synergistic relationship on this acquisition.
Keywords: Semen Indonesia, Thang Long Cement Vietnam, acquisition, profitability, expansion, market
export, financial analysis

1. Introduction
Indonesia's cement sector has shown promising increase in domestic cement production and
consumption. This trend is estimated to continue for number of reasons, such as Indonesias current
low per capita cement consumption and expanding middle class people that gives rise to new
housing and real-estate development. The outlook for the Indonesian cement industry is positive,
combined with strong economic prospects as well as low current consumption per capita. Total
cement exports have declined significantly over the last few years due to a surge in domestic
demand.
PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero), Tbk. is the leader in terms of sales, designed capacity and production.
In 2012, the company had a 41% domestic market share based on sales volume. It was followed by
Indocement and Holcim with a share of 32% and 15%, respectively. The competitiveness between
the other cement company is relatively tight, and thats why PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero), Tbk.
wanted to expand their business outside domestic area. Southeast Asia is considered to be the
targetted region because Indonesia is still part of the area. Vietnam is chosen to be its first
partnership destination region, and targetted Thang Long Cement Company, Vietnam.

Figure 1. PT Semen Indonesias Milestone
Thang Long Cement Company (TLCC) is among leading cement manufacturers in Vietnam with total
investment budget of over 6,000 billion VND (Vietnam Dollars), including one main plant in Quang
Ninh province and one grinding station in Hiep Phuoc Industrial Park, Nha Be district, Ho Chi Minh
City. Thang Long Cement is proud to be founded by leading Vietnamese shareholders, of which the
majority one is Hanoi General Import and Export Joint Stock Company (Geleximco) who is one of the
first private multi-lines industrial conglomerates in Vietnam with key strengths in: industrial
production, banking, securities finance, real estate, telecommunication, insurance and many more.
Officially launched in Vietnamese market on December 18, 2008, Thang Long Cement has quickly
become one of the most popular cement companies to the consumers.
2. Business Issue Exploration
High competitiveness between domestic leading cement companies and also the concern of being
the biggest cement company in Southeast Asian, encourage PT Semen Indonesia to acquiring Thang
Long Cement Company Vietnam. In compliance with the national eonomic growth, the domestic
demand of cement for several years ahead has predicted to be increase by 8% or above the
economic growth rate. As well as PT. Semen Indonesia that keeps adding more its production
capacity to anticipate the future increase in cement demand. Recently, the condition of Indonesias
cement supply is still facing shortage and PT. Semen Indonesia sees the opportunity to gain more
supply from Southeast Asian countries which had excess in cement supply, such as Vietnam.
This is the first acquisition of the company and this final project will discuss yet analyze how could
the acquisition gain positive mutual benefit for both companies. The valuation gave outcome that
the acquisition is favorable for PT Semen Indonesia, but undervalued for Thang Long Cement
Vietnam due to several factors. Vietnam cement market had faced major economic challenges such
as slowdown in property market, a rise in input costs, high interest rates and exhange rate
fluctuations. Furthermore, company would ensure that the acquisition will give improvement for
their performance in national and also regional area. Not only for PT Semen Indonesia, but also for
Thang Long Cement Company.
The acquisition happened in 2012 and it already has been more than a year. The revenue growth
contribution from Thang Long Cement Company is still unsignificant and little. This final project will
comes up with strategy to generate the profit and enhance maximum performance of PT Semen
Indonesia and Thang Long Cement Company.
Indonesias economy in 2013 grew at the slowest speed in recent four years as seen in undermined
exports and higher interest rates which effect consumption. (data from Indonesia statistic bureau).
Indonesias gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5,78% in 2013, lower than 2012 that was 6,23%. The
number of GDP growth in 2013 is the slowest growth since 2009. Indonesias annual growth is more
than 6% in recent years, strengthened by spending from its growing middle class.

Figure 2. Indonesia GDP Annual Growth
The economic condition in Indonesia is impresively rising up, seen from the number of foreign
investors that come to take the opportunities. Competition is also heating up, for regional sectors or
even global business competition. After passing the economic crisis in 1997/1998, Indonesias
economic condition is showing stable recovery and heading to its greatness. The economic growth in
Indonesia by year 2009 until 2013 reached approximately 5,9 % per year, which was the highest
economic growth achievement of Indonesia after the crisis happened 15 years ago. Compare to
another Southeast Asians country, Indonesia could be categorized as a country with stable economic
growth.

Figure 3. Comparison of Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries
On the other side, Vietnam needs to have several challenges in order to sustain its rapid growth and
development potential. Reforms to the financial system and to state owned enterprise (SOEs), it also
needed to be broadened and transformed. The bad loans from commercial banking sector have to be
improved through governance regulatory. Also ownership diversification of SOEs must be broadened
and improved to compete as market-based enterprises.

Country Year 2011 Year 2012
Cambodia 7,1% 7,3%
Indonesia 6.5% 6,2%
Vietnam 6,0% 5,0%
Malaysia 5,6% 5,1%
Singapore 5,2% 1,3%
Phillipine 3,6% 6,8%
Brunei Darussalam 2,2% 2,2%
Thailand 0,1% 6,5%

The macro economic condition in Vietnam is unstable because of inflation rates and asset prices has
declined sharply. According to Vietnams accession to membership in the World Trade Organization
in 2007, foreign capital inflows helped the domestic credit growth, from 25% in 2006 to 54% in 2007.
In the end of 2010, Vietnam faced severe macro economic instability with high inflation, high interest
rates, large trade deficit and public debt. The government reacted in beginning 2011 by tightening
monetary and fiscal policy. By 2012, sign of relief in the bank liquidity shortage began to emerge.


Figure 4. GDP Growth, Inflation Rates and Credit Growth in Vietnam

Cement industry expansion is clearly a big project investment and needs time to conclude for the
final agreement. In this business issue of acquisition between PT Semen Indonesia and Thang Long
Cement Company Vietnam, plenty of external factors are matters due to the different region
(Indonesia and Vietnam). It is necessary to analyze from the external environment.
Fives Forces Porter Analysis used in this final project. Barriers to entry for cement industry is high,
due to the The cost to build one leading cement company is not cheap and needs big area to build
the factory. Furthermore, brand identity of cement companies in Indonesia is quite strong, such as PT
Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia. That makes them even harder
to compete in the market. Industry rivalry is also competitive and quite high. PT Semen Indonesia is
facing competitors such as PT Holcim Indonesia (Semen Cibinong), PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa
(Heidelberger), PT Semen Baturaja, PT Semen Andalas, PT Semen Kupang and PT Semen Bosowa
Maros.
Bargaining power of buyers is low, because they could not set the price, but still they could choose
the cheapest price from several cement products. Bargaining power of suppliers in cement industry is
quite low. If the company could get raw material supply from several suppliers, so the company
position is relatively stronger compared to the supplier. Means that supplier is not threatening the
company. But if the company only rely to one supplier, the company would be threatened by the
supplier. Threat of substitutes is relatively high. Another strong competitors are also produced
similar cement products, with comparable quality and also competitive price. Siam Cement from
Thailand now is the most dangerous threat because they will be build a plant in Indonesia.
When the company decides to expand their business to Vietnam by acquiring Thang Long Cement
Vietnam, it had been through some reasonable discussion and considerstion. Except the excess
supply condition in Vietnam, there are also several other reasons why Semen Indonesia chose TLCC.

Figure 5. SWOT Analysis of Vietnam Cement Industry
Internal analysis comes from the strategy perspective, which aimed to make PT. Semen Indonesia
(Persero), Tbk as a leading national cement manufacturer. To achieve that, earlier before acquisition
they already implemented strategies that is used for:
Increase Production Capacity and Expand Market Share in Indonesia
The cement demand in Indonesia is growing, so the company decided to increase production
capacity.
Improve Efficiency
Efficiency could be improve through optimization of production systems. Also refer to
distributin and transportation cost
Explore Core Business
PT Semen Indonesia (Persero), Tbk also strenghten its core business by removing some of its
businesses, such as cement bags manufacturing, raw materials mining and other activities to
its subsidiaries. This action provides an opportunity to be more focus on its primary activity
which is cement producer.
PT Semen Indonesia is focus on revenue growth to gain sustain profitability. They use cost leadership
strategy in cement production and distribution. The strategy is trusted to bring success for PT Semen
Indonesia in years after. Another competitors were rapidly grew and PT Semen Indonesia needs to
undertaken massive strategy that has not been done by its competitors.

Figure 6. Market Position of Domestic Cement Industry
To measure the companys ability to perform and understand the reasons why they chose
acquisition, this final project using financial ratio analysis for both companies. PT Semen Indonesia
profitability growth based on Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) which are relatively
increased over the years. Both measure companies ability to generate earnings from its investments.

Figure 7. Profitability Ratio of PT Semen Indonesia
Calculation on ROA and ROE also applied to analyze the financial performance of Thang Long Cement
Vietnam, over the past years. The trend is often declining. ROA of Thang Long Cement Company
defines that the company is not profitable enough relates to its total assets. It gives the idea that the
management is not properly used its assets to generate earnings. ROE of Thang Long Cement
Company is showing instability of companys profitability by the amount of money shareholders have
invested.

Figure 8. Profitability Ratio of Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam
The declining trend on ROE and ROA of Thang Long Cement Company is a result of competition
between rivals, market instability and also the inability to pay overdue debts. This condition becomes
an opportunity for PT Semen Indonesia as an foreign investors to acquired the company.
Asset turnover ratio measures the companys ability to use its assets to efficiently generate sales. Ths
ratio considers all assets (current and fixed), such as plant and equipment as well as inventory,
account receivables, as well as any other current assets.


Figure 9. Asset Management Ratio of PT Semen Indonesia
In order to account assets and property, the term used is fixed asset. In 2010 until 2012, the graph is
declining because major purchases on plant, property and machines. Asset turnover defines the
amount of sales generated, which measures companys efficiency at using its assets generating in
sales or revenue. The higher the number, the better condition is. Inventory turnover shows how
many times a companys inventory is sold and replaced over a year. Low turnover indicates poor
sales and excess inventory (surplus supply). Thang Long Cement Company Vietnams performance on
its assets and inventory turnover is shown in Figure 11 below:

Figure 10. Asset and Inventory Turnover of Thang Long Cement Company
Debt ratio measure debt amount of the company stated in balance sheets compared to its equity or
assets. In early 2000, crisis happened in Indonesia and it means that the company had high debt
period. Eventually, the years after that the capital structure used lower leverage. Low debt to equity
ratio defined lower risk, because debt holders had les claims on companys assets

Figure 11. Debt Ratio of PT Semen Indonesia
In Vietnam, cement companies especially state-owned ones, have been aggresively finance their
business with debt. Thang Long Cement Company is a private company, and held a big amount of
debts, as noted in its financial statement (US$ 140 million) that sourced from several lenders and
were granted before PT Semen Indonesia took over the company. Below in Figure 12 will shown the
financial strength of Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam through quick ratio, current ratio and
debt to equity ratio:

Figure 12. Debt to Equity Ratio of Thang Long Cement Company
As we know that Thang Long Cement Company has excess inventory and it made its financial
weakens. Meanwhile, total debt to equity of Thang Long Cement Company shows very high
proportion which indicates that debts were using more to finance its assets.
PT Semen Indonesia is concern about cost management, which is why the company maintain to
reduce its operating cost over period. Since 2005, cost was declining but one year after the operating
expense increased. Revenue and profit of the company continuously increase in recent years. But
during 2000 until 2002, the company faced declining profit and revenue. Cost inefficiency was one of
the reason. In 2003, margin began to increase and EBITDA margin increased continuously in 2007.
This situation was relevant due to effort in controlling production cost. All indicators are divided with
the net sales.

Figure 13. EBITDA Growth of PT Semen Indonesia
The smaller the ratio, the greater the company's ability to generate profit if the revenues were
decreased. Gross Profit Margin shows small number which mean the operation of Thang Long
Company wasnt efficient enough. The cost of goods sold, also known as COGS, includes the expense
required to manufacture a product or provide a service. This measure would include expenses such
as raw materials, labor, and production overheads.
3. Business Solution
There will be scenario alternatives valuation about the financial condition of PT Semen Indonesia and
Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam, related to their enterprise value and synergy value, in three
scenarios; before both companies had done the acquisition project which means they stand
independently as a cement company, after the acquisition project is done with current condition,
post-acquisition analysis with strategy of capacity expansion and adding market export diversification
to get profitability enhancement. The method used is discounted cash flow (DCF), by doing projection
of free cash flow (FCF) in the future while considering the discount rate for each year. In the firm
valuation of PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero), Tbk we use free cash flow projection from 2009 until
2017, because it assume that in the time length, there will be impact for PT. Semen Indonesia
(Persero), Tbk for long term period. The same methods are used for Thang Long Cement Company
Vietnam. Calculation methods for analysis are depend on the data availability from each companies.
Synergy value from the acquisition will be analyzed and described to know how can the acquisition
benefits for the buyer company.
Discounted Cash Flow method will calculate the value of a share of common stock is equal to the
present value of all future cash flow expectation. Several steps in DCF method are:
Estimating Discount Rates
The use of discount rate is to reflect the risk of cash flow. The calculation is combination
from cost of debt and cost of equity (cost of capital).
Free Cash Flow Measurement
In this step, there will be a forecasted earnings, forecasted CAPEX (capital expenditures) and
forecasted net working capital.
Cash Flow Forecasting
To calculate the cash flow for projection time period, it requires terminal value at the end of
the estimation phase.
Equity Valuation
The final step, firm valuation will be estimated and then converted to equity valuation
method to get the value of share price.
Table 1. Framework For DCF Calculation
The important elements in Free Cash Flow projection is also the projection of sales, EBITDA and EBIT.
To determine the growth sales for the next 5 years, we use Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
from the last five years, which is from year 2009 until 2013. CAGR for PT Semen Indonesia (Persero)
Tbk is 3,87% and for Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam is -2,27%. Due to the financial condition
of Thang Long Cement Vietnam and also the economic condition in Vietnam, the CAGR resulted is in
minus amount, means still far from expectation. The number is used for growth sales in scenario 1
for both companies.
The growth rate or CAGR for PT Semen Indonesia for another scenarios (2 & 3) is using assumptions.
For scenario 2, it is the most-likely condition means PT Semen Indonesias current condition,
acquiring Thang Long Cement Company. So then, the sales growth is 7%. This assumption is based on
average sales growth rate in cement industry. And for the scenario 3, it is the condition after
acquisition with proposed strategy of capacity expansion and market export diversification in
Vietnam. So, the sales growth assumption is 13,6%.
For Thang Long Cement Company, the growth rate for another scenarios (2&3) is also using
assumptions. For scenario 2, it uses the most-likely condition, when the companys current condition
(acquired by PT Semen Indonesia). So, the sales growth is assumed to be 3%. And for the scenario 3,
it is the expected condition based on improvement from capacity expansion and exporting activities.
Therefore, the sales growth assumption of Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam is 6%.
In this final project, cost of debt calculation will be measured by bond rating and interest coverage
ratio. To calculate cost of debt, there are three steps included; first is using financial ratio. Interest
coverage ratio could be determined from EBIT divided with interest expense. Second step is, each
company will be assigned a rating according to its ratio result.

Model Measure Discount Factor Assessment
Discounted Cash
Flow
Free Cash Flow Weighted average cost
of capital (WACC)
Works best for projects, business
units and companies that manage
their capital structure to a target
level

Risk Free Rate 7,001
Rating A
Tax Rate 25%
Cost of debt before tax 8,55%
After tax cost of debt 6,41%
Table 2. Cost of Debt PT Semen Indonesia
The cost of debt Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam is 17,92%. Cost of equity defines expected
rate of return by investor since there is an uncertainty in profit earning. CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing
Model) is used on the calculation. The cost of equity of PT Semen Indonesia is 22,64%. And, cost of
equity of Thang Long Cement Company is 12,21%.
The method used for calculate terminal value is using Perpetuity Growth methods, by multiplying
free cash flow with (1+perpetuity growth rate), and then divided by WACC minus perpetuity growth
rate. The perpetuity growth used in this calculation is 6% (PT Semen Indonesia) and 12,3% (Thang
Long Cement Vietnam).

Table 3. Terminal Value of PT Semen Indonesia

Table 4. Terminal Value of Thang Long Cement Company
Present value (PV) of free cash flow is calculated by multiples the free cash flow each year with the
discount factor. This relates to calculate the enterprise value.

Table 5. Enterprise Value of Thang Long Cement

Table 5. Enterprise Value of PT Semen Indonesia
The acquisition price then compared to the enterprise value of Thang Long Cement Company. The
value shown in Table 6 is based on scenario 1, that is the value of Thang long Cement Company as an
individual company before acquired by PT Semen Indonesia. The result of undervalued price in the
acquisition process between PT Semen Indonesia and Thang Long Cement Company is not a bad
thing, because of several things as explained below:
The economic condition in Vietnam for recent years which lead investors to keen on buy
ownership shares in lower prices
Thang Long Cement Company needed to have major restructuring to survive. Being acquired
by one of leading cement companies is likely a benefit to continue its business.
Acquisition Price $ 157.000.000,00
Enterprise Value
$ 186.000.000,00 (Thang Long
Cement)


Table 6. Acquisition Price and Fair Price of Thang Long Cement Company
By having the three different scenarios analysis, the author suggested the company to choose
strategy 3 to be implemented. One year after the acquisition, Thang Long Cement must keep up the
good work to optimize their sales which will generate its revenue. The company should increase the
production capacity as soon as possible, in order to gain the positive revenue growth.

Figure 14. Potential Revenue From Thang Long Cement Company Capacity Expansion
Another strategy is to market export diversification. The growth in exports capacity is driven by
existing plant expansion and also new cement players who build its business in Indonesia. The export
destinations are Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, South Africa, and some countries in Middle East. By assuming
the positive growth on expansion capacity, the growth on cement exports also predicted to be rising
up through years. Indonesia can compete more in Southeast Asia region while the market will
become more excessively tight between another strong competitors from another countries such as
Thailand, Malaysia, Phillipines.
Thang Long Cement Company Vietnam will be expanding its production capacity and the product can
be exported to another country that has potential cement market requirements. Last year, the
countrys total cement output was 70 million tons. Majority amount of the product was sold for
domestic supply and international markets, with an increase of 14% from last year. Vietnam should
also try to diversified its market export as a result of tough competition in domestic market.

Figure 15. Vietnam Cement Exports
4. Implementation Plan
Thang Long Cements existing plant is in north of Vietnam, and the new plant can be build on the
south of Vietnam. The capacity of the new plant assumed to be around 1,5 million tons per year. So,
the overall capacity of two plants can be reached 4 million tons per year. The investment for the new
plant is estimated to be around $250 to $300 million, most of which will be sourced from bank loans.
To establish a new factory under the supervision of TLCC, however, Semen Indonesia will take the
demographics of Vietnam into account, considering that the market in Vietnam is divided between
North and South Vietnam, which the market in South Vietnam is better than the North, but the
supply is dominated by North Vietnam.


Figure16. Schedule of Expansion Implementation Plan
When the company already expands capacity, there will be also several risk that may occur. Besides
the economic and market growth condition that only can be predicted, but still we cannot get the
real overview. The proposed strategy in this final project has different risk that should be described
so the companies can prepare early mitigation when its coming.

Figure18. Possible Risk and Mitigation Strategy
No. Strategy Actions To Be Taken
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
1 Capacity Expansion Funding Preparation (Investment)
Preparing For Construction
Building The New Plant
Finishing and Installment
2 Market Export Find the potential markets
Preparation before shipping time
Shipping products
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
No. Strategy Possible Risk Mitigation
Competitive pressures Regular audit
1
Capacity
Expansion
Legislative and regulatory
developments Compliance audit

Global, macroeconomic and politic
trends Risk assesment

Fluctuatios in currency exchange rates
and financial market condition Risk assesment
Technical developments Clear procedures
Natural disasters
Potential impact
assesment
2

Payment failure
Pre-shipping payment /
Letter of Credit

Market
Export Shipping Delay Time estimation
Global economic downturn Risk assesment

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