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r
is the residual stress determined from the opening
that develops in a saw cut test. A value of 15.7
kPa/mm (14.3 ksi) is a good estimate from the
Queens University tests.
For example, using the above empirical equation, the
following combinations of conditions could cause sudden rail
fracture:
For a transverse defect covering 8% of the railhead:
a rail temperature of 56 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit)
below the neutral temperature and a dynamic wheel
load of 356 kN (80,000 lbs).
For a transverse defect covering 10% of the railhead:
a rail temperature of 56 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit)
below the neutral temperature and a dynamic wheel
load of 311 kN (70,000 lbs).
For a transverse defect covering 18% of the railhead:
a rail temperature of 39 Celsius (70 Fahrenheit)
below the neutral temperature and a dynamic wheel
load of 311 kN (70,000 lbs).
For a transverse defect covering 40% of the railhead:
a rail temperature of 56 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit)
below the neutral temperature without any wheel
loading.
See Part 3, Appendix A: Rail Defects (Canadian Pacific
Rail & Spoornet)
5.2.5 Rail Fatigue Projection
Most railways performing regular projection of rail life use the
Weibull methodology for projecting rail fatigue occurrence
rates. The Weibull methodology is useful in identifying
locations where trends are sustained vs. the case where defects
have remained constant. The situation where rail defect
occurrence rates are increasing is more critical, as this may
signal a mature fatigue process. These projections are used to
identify consistent trends in rail defect occurrences that could
be cause for a rail renewal program.
o 5-16 x
Attention to trends identified through regular use of
Weibull projections may guide selection of a strategy to correct
a defect trend by tamping up rail joints, building up rail ends by
welding, relieving the gauge corner, or attending to flat wheels.
Rail should be changed out when the annual cost of
repairing rail defects exceeds the value of deferring the renewal
for another year. At a repair cost of only $2500 per defect, and
an annual value of $18000 in interest savings if you leave the
rail in track, it requires a strong trend line to justify a rail
replacement for defect occurrences alone. But if a significant
number of these rails are failing in service, this introduces the
possibility that leaving the rail in track may incur the high cost
of line outages during emergency rail replacements and broken
rail derailments.
The key therefore is in maintaining effective rail testing.
As shown, service reliability requires both effective testing
systems and frequent rail testing. Attainment of long rail
service lives in a heavy haul environment similarly requires a
strategy to support rail economics with effective rail testing.
5.2.5.1 Use of Weibull Distribution to Predict Rail
Flaw Occurrence Rates
( )
1
]
1
1
]
1
T
e
T
T f
1
) ( (2)
The Weibull probability density function is given by:
(T) > 0, T > , > 0, > 0, - < <
Where:
= Shape parameter
= Location parameter
= Scale parameter
T = Time, Tonnage etc.
o 5-17 x
The Weibull reliability function is given by
,
_
T
e T R ) ( (3)
and the Weibull failure function
,
_
T
e
T R T F
1
) ( 1 ) (
(4)
The failure function is manipulated into the following form:
( ) ( )
n T n
T F
n n
T
T F
n
e
T F
e T F
T
T
l l l l
l
,
_
,
_
,
_
,
_
) ( 1
1
) ( 1
1
) ( 1
1
) ( 1
(5)
This linear relationship is used for constructing Weibull
probability paper. ( ) n l is constant for a given situation.
The Weibull failure rate, (T), is given by
( ) 1
) (
,
_
T
T (6)
In rail failure analyses one of two avenues for the calculation of
reliability or failure rates can be followed:
1. A maximum number of failures, defects or
occurrences, per distance of track, of a certain nature
can be decided upon beforehand. Once this level of
failures has been reached it is assumed that 100% of
occurrences had been experienced and some action
like replacing of the rail is taken.
o 5-18 x
2. No previous decision regarding the number of defects
that is allowable in the track has been taken. Here use
is made of the so called Median Rank to allocate a
value of F(T) to failures. The Median Rank will, in this
case, again be based on a unit length of track.
In order to obtain relevant results from a Weibull analysis
of rails the track must be divided up in homogeneous units.
Information required for analysis includes:
1. The type of defect (Classification of failure);
2. Tonnage to failure;
3. Time to failure;
4. History of repairs and maintenance;
5. Infrastructure data. Position in track etc.
Lengths of rail in a unit may vary upon conditions. In
general lengths from 5 km to 50 km may be used. The
considerations for lengths of rail to be identified, tested and
analysed will be discussed later.
The following example illustrates the typical use of the
Weibull function.
Failure data for heavy haul-line 20 to 40 km:
Failure type : Kidney shaped crack
Line length (km) : 20
Max. defects per km : 5 (Has to be decided on as policy)
Table 5.1 shows data from a spreadsheet program used for
the calculation of the Weibull parameters.
o 5-19 x
Table 5.1: Results from Weibull analysis
Tonnage
(mgt)
Years Failures
per period
Ave. Failures
per km
% Failed
100 2 5 0.25 5
200 4 8 0.65 13
300 6 4 0.85 17
400 8 8 1.25 25
500 10 4 1.45 29
600 12 6 1.75 35
700 14 5 2.00 40
800 16 9 2.45 49
900 18 8 2.85 57
The columns in Table 5.2 are:
F(mgt) % of failures of the Kidney shaped crack type.
Based on the max. defects allowable per km.
Tonnage (mgt) Actual gross load carried by rails.
) (
) ( 1
1
Tonnage n x
MGT F
n n Y
l
l l
,
_
,
_
,
_
R
e R
T
e T R
,
_
,
_
,
_
,
_
e
T
e
T F