US Prepoll N States

* 26 The Guardian | Tuesday 6 November 2012 * The Guardian | Tuesday 6 November 2012 27
US election: the complete guide

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Real time results Watch our amazing
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with the vote for each candidate broken down
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Pictures and video Key images from
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Indiana
Kentucky
Florida
Georgia
N Hampshire
S Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
N Carolina
Ohio
WVirginia
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist Columbia
Illinois
Kansas
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
New Jersey
N Dakota
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Texas
Arkansas
Colorado
Louisiana
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
SouthDakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Arizona
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah
California
Hawaii
Idaho
Oregon
Washington
Virginia
No state better represents the old v the
new south. The northern part of the
state, surrounding Washington DC, is
lled with highly educated Democrat
supporters, while most of the rest of
the states white population is Repub-
lican. Obama also benets froma large
African-American population in the
south-east. Virginia had not voted for
a Democrat for president since 1964,
until it sided with Obama in 2008. The
polls show the state to be dead even.
Expect this race to take hours for the
networks to call as northern Virginia is
usually the last to report.
Ohio
No Republican has ever won the presi-
dency without winning Ohio. This year
is not likely to be an exception. Obama
is buered by a large African-American
population around Cleveland as well as
old, conservative Democrats along the
states eastern border. Romney benets
fromevangelical support in the more
rural western and southern sections.
Romneys strength with white working-
class voters has been diminished in
Ohio because of Obamas support of the
auto bailout and the president holds a
small lead in the polls. Dont expect the
state to be called by the networks for at
least four hours after closing.
Florida
George Bush won the state by 537 votes
and with it the White House in 2000.
Much of the northern two-thirds of
the state is lled with residents whose
families have lived in Florida for gen-
erations. These folks are Romneys
strength, along with Cubans in Miami.
Obama will do very well with a growing
non-Cuban Hispanic population around
Orlando, black people, and Jewish re-
tirees in the south-east. Look at the I-4
(Interstate 4) corridor in the central part
of the state fromOrlando to Tampa.
Whoever wins the I-4 will likely win the
state. Polls give Romney a slight edge,
although it is too close to call.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire was the only state to
vote for George Bush in 2000 and John
Kerry in 2004. It supported Obama in
2008, but did a U-turn and voted three
Republicans to the federal govern-
ment in the 2010 midterms. The state
is nearly all white, yet has a unique mix
of old-time libertarians, tax escapees
fromMassachusetts (theres no income
or sales tax in New Hampshire), and so-
cial liberals on the states western edge.
New Hampshire only has four electoral
votes; however, they could play a big
role in a number of electoral scenarios.
The race here is too close to call, with
perhaps a slight edge to Obama.
Colorado
Latinos, along with a growing highly
educated white suburban population
around Denver, have shifted this once
Republican stronghold into a state
where either party can win. Republi-
cans still run strong in the exurbs
(commuter towns) of Weld and the
strongly religious El Paso county, home
to the Christian conservative group
Focus of the Family. Jeerson county,
which is the basis for the comedy South
Park, is likely to mirror the states vote.
Polling in the state indicates that the
race is a true toss-up.
Wisconsin
No state is more partisan than Wiscon-
sin where a recall drive against the con-
troversial Republican governor failed
in June. Each candidate is locked in
with 47%of the vote, no matter what.
Obama can count on Milwaukee with its
black population, socially liberal whites
around the University of Wisconsin,
and old-time Democrats in the west.
Romney must crush in the Milwaukee
suburbs, which are among the most
conservative in the nation. The area
around Green Bay in the north-east
matches the word swing perfectly. If
Romney doesnt win Ohio, he must win
here. Polls give Obama a small lead.
Iowa
This is where the primary season be-
gins and it likes to keep Americans
guessing. Its a mix of old heartland
liberals in the east and conservative
evangelicals in the west. This was one
of only two states that voted for Al Gore
in 2000 and George Bush in 2004. No
state has better mirrored the national
vote since 1992 than Iowa. Early voting
suggests a tight race, while polling gives
Obama a small advantage. Obama won
his rst victory outside of Illinois here
and would like to win where his na-
tional candidacy began. Iowa has histor-
ically not been decided until very late
in the evening.
Nevada
There may be no better example of
the gathering Latino inuence than in
the American south-west. Combined
with Jewish retirees, black people, and
white casino workers, Latinos formthe
Democratic base in and around Las Ve-
gas. Democrats led by Senate majority
leader Harry Reid have been register-
ing voters at an incredible pace. Mitt
Romney is relying on a base in the rural
areas, including a large Mormon popu-
lation. Washoe county in the north-west
usually votes with the winner. Early
voting suggests that Obama will carry
the state and polling mostly predicts an
Obama win by a small margin.
Follow the race Work out who is winning The battleground states
Analyst Harry J Enten on eight states you need to watch
Alaska
3
New Mexico
5
Colorado
9
Arizona
11
California
55
Nevada
6
Idaho
4
Montana
3
North Dakota
3
South Dakota
3
Nebraska
4
Nebraska CD2*
1
Kansas
6
Oklahoma
7
Missouri
10
Iowa
6
Wisconsin
10
Michigan
16
Ohio
18
West
Virginia
5
Illinois
20
Maine
3
Maine CD2*
1
Arkansas
6
Alabama
9
Georgia
16
Kentucky
8
Virginia
13
North Carolina
15
Pennsylvania
20
Indiana
11
Tennessee 11
Minnesota
10
Wyoming
3
Oregon
7
Washington
12
Utah
6
Texas
38
South Carolina 9
Mississippi 6
Delaware 3
Washington DC 3
Massachusetts 11
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
Maryland 10
New Jersey 14
Vermont 3
New Hampshire 4
New York 29
Florida 29
Louisiana 8
Hawaii
4
Undecided 1 Number of electoral college votes per state Mitt Romney & Republicans Barack Obama & Democrats
155
Undecided
201 Barack Obama and Democrats Mitt Romney and Republicans 182
18leaning towards the Democrat 29likely to vote Democrat 154 solid Democrat 11 leaning towards the Republicans 44likely to vote Republican 127 solid Republican
49.4
Obama
46.5
Romney
Ohio
50.4
Obama
46.2
Romney
Wisconsin
50.2
Obama
47.4
Romney
Nevada
49.2
Obama
45.4
Romney
Michigan
46.2
Obama
49.2
Romney
North Carolina
47.7
Obama
49.5
Romney
Florida
45
Obama
42
Romney
South Carolina
48.0
Obama
47.7
Romney
Virginia
49.3
Obama
45.4
Romney
Pennsylvania
49.7
Obama
47.7
Romney
New Hampshire
48.8
Obama
45.8
Romney
Iowa
48.2
Obama
47.6
Romney
Colorado
270 electoral college
votes needed to win
*Maine and Nebraska
are the two only states
that allocates its
electoral college votes
by congressional
district. Source: real
clear politics, updated
at 15:00, 05/11/12
C
a
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isc
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1
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a
6
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a
6
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M
ic
h
ig
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n
1
6
(+
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H
a
m
p
sh
ire
4
(+
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h
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1
8
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1
3
(+
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M
o
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ta
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a
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(+
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a
1
1
(+
7
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in
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ta
1
0
(+
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n
7
(+
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th
D
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k
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ta
3
(+
6
)
S
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C
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a
9
(+
3
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M
isso
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ri 1
0
(+
1
1
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)
In
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n
a
1
1
(+
9
.5
)
A
la
sk
a
3
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D
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3
(+
0
.9
)
W
y
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g
3
Id
a
h
o
4
(+
3
6
)
N
e
b
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sk
a
4
(+
1
3
)
W
e
st V
irg
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ia
5
(+
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1
)
A
rk
a
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sa
s 6
(+
2
7
)
K
a
n
sa
s 6
(+
9
)
M
ississip
p
i 6
(+
1
8
)
U
ta
h
6
(+
4
5
)
O
k
la
h
o
m
a
7
(+
2
6
)
K
e
n
tu
c
k
y
8
(+
1
4
)
L
o
u
isia
n
a
8
(+
2
3
)
A
la
b
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m
a
9T
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n
n
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1
1
(+
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5
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e
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a
s 3
8
(+
1
6
.7
)
G
e
o
rg
ia
1
6
(+
9
.3
)
Alaska
Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole |
Bush | Bush | Obama
Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton |
Bush | Bush | McCain
Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Clinton |
Bush | Bush | Obama
Bush | Bush | Obama
Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton |
Gore | Kerry | Obama
Bush Sr |Clinton | Clinton |
Bush | Bush | Obama
Bush Sr | Clinton | Dole |
Bush | Bush | Obama
Gore | Bush | Obama
Gore | Bush | Obama
Bush Sr |Clinton | Clinton |
Bush | Kerry | Obama
Bush | Bush | Obama
Bush | Bush | Obama
Poll closes
(GMT)
State How they voted
1988-2008
Ohio and Florida are pivotal. If Romney fails to win
either, the race is eectively over
Romney needs to pick up 79 college votes from swing states to win, so if hes still
in the game Colorado and Wisconsin could give him a bit boost
If the race is still open by the time Iowa and Nevada declare then
the election has gone down to the wire
Electoral college
Votes Tally
11
8
29
15
9
3
4
10
8
4
3
6
7
3
16
18
7
20
16
7
5
6
4
10
14
10
11
4
5
3
6
6
9
20
29
3
4
10
6
12
3
11
3
5
11
55
38
6
9
3
13

Big news, small screen
Live election results and commentary
m.guardian.co.uk
*Maine and Nebraska are the
only two states that allocate
their electoral college votes
by congressional district.
Source: Real Clear Politics,
updated at 15:00, 05/11/12

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* 26 The Guardian | Tuesday 6 November 2012 * The Guardian | Tuesday 6 November 2012 27

US election: the complete guide

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