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The document discusses the scientific method and common mistakes made in its application. It describes the scientific method as involving observation, hypothesis formulation, prediction, and experimental testing. It notes that a hypothesis can be ruled out if its predictions are incompatible with observations. Common mistakes include having a preference for a particular outcome, attempting to explain phenomena without experimental testing, and ignoring data that do not support the original hypothesis. The document emphasizes that scientists should be open-minded and not attached to hypotheses.
Originalbeschreibung:
Short Review of the scientific method and its place in modern science.
The document discusses the scientific method and common mistakes made in its application. It describes the scientific method as involving observation, hypothesis formulation, prediction, and experimental testing. It notes that a hypothesis can be ruled out if its predictions are incompatible with observations. Common mistakes include having a preference for a particular outcome, attempting to explain phenomena without experimental testing, and ignoring data that do not support the original hypothesis. The document emphasizes that scientists should be open-minded and not attached to hypotheses.
The document discusses the scientific method and common mistakes made in its application. It describes the scientific method as involving observation, hypothesis formulation, prediction, and experimental testing. It notes that a hypothesis can be ruled out if its predictions are incompatible with observations. Common mistakes include having a preference for a particular outcome, attempting to explain phenomena without experimental testing, and ignoring data that do not support the original hypothesis. The document emphasizes that scientists should be open-minded and not attached to hypotheses.
The concepts of data being consistent with a hypothesis
CHARLIE KENZIE
22 nd May 2014
1. Introduction: The Scientific Method The use of empirical data as a requirement to test hypotheses is an essential part of any scientific investigation. One must always consider the most satisfactory approach to a scientific problem. Generally the scientific method involves the following steps: 1) The observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2) The formulation of a hypothesis to explain these phenomena. 3) Using the hypothesis to predict other phenomena or quantitatively predict the results of new phenomena. 4) Perform experimental tests, or observe the natural phenomena, and evaluate the predictions made by the hypothesis. To this end, you can reject or, to an extent, accept the hypothesis.
2. Testing a Hypothesis Part 4 of the method can lead to the confirmation or ruling out of a hypothesis. General scientific logic reasons that a hypothesis can be ruled out if the predictions are clearly and repeatedly incompatible with experimental or natural observations. No matter the elegance of a theory, its predictions must agree with natural observations if we are to believe that it is a valid description of the environment. For example, this condition has to be treated with a healthy caution when utilizing numerical models. When combined with natural observations, numerical modeling can provide an important insight into the limitations of an environmental system, and highlight possible hypotheses within mathematical plausibility. However, without comparison to real observations, the predictions of a numerical model can by no means be validated. Further care has to be taken when considering that natural systems are never fully closed, such that model results are always non- unique. Thus, complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena, and since models can only be evaluated in relative terms, their use as a predictive method is always open to question. The primary value of numerical models is therefore only heuristic. The use of models to confirm hypotheses is a common mistake in the application of scientific methods.
3. Common Mistakes in Applying the Scientific Method The scientific approach aims to reduce, ideally to eradicate, the influence of a scientists bias on the experimental or observational outcome. One common mistake is that a scientist may have a preference for one outcome or another. As highlighted above, another common mistake is to attempt to explain a phenomenon, perhaps by numerical modeling, without performing experimental tests. A further mistake is to rule out, or to ignore, data that do not support the original hypothesis. Ideally a scientist should be open to the possibility that a hypothesis is correct or incorrect. These arguments are grounded in the roots of scientific philosophy, and in this sense, perhaps science reflects certain aspects of human frailty. For example, once a status quo has been reached regarding a scientific theory, or indeed in any aspect of society, it is difficult to change opinion regardless of evidence that suggests otherwise. These conditions can be seen among many scientific debates in the modern day.