Historical Supply of Ammonium Sulphate

Table 2.16. Historical supply of Ammonium Sulphate (From Foreign Trade Statistics of
the Philippines. (2004-2013)
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Net Weight (kg)

45098450
315270114
232401495
168079447
130639735
274710019
294406917
506504645
301409332
428932669

Graphical Representation
600000000
400000000
200000000
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Figure 2.5 Graphical representation of Ammonium Sulphate supply

*From Foreign Trade Statistics of the Philippines. (2002-2012)
The graph shows the supply of ammonium sulphate in the Philippines
that reached the highest supply in the year 2011. And there are years that the supply of
was decline. The supply decreases in year 2008 and 2012 but in the supply shows that
there is possibility that the supply continue increased in the year after the graph.
Methods of Projection
Arithmetic Straight Line Method
Formula:
Where:

Yc = initial value (1st year)

Yn = final value (last year)
N = number of years
Yi = value for the year pas

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Table 2.17. ASLM analysis for Ammonium Sulphate Supply

Net Weight
A
Yc
(Y-Yc)2
(kg)
45098450
42648246.56
0
0
315270114
42648246.56 87746696.56
5.17669E+16
232401495
42648246.56 357918360.6
1.57545E+16
168079447
42648246.56 275049741.6
1.14426E+16
130639735
42648246.56 210727693.6
6.41408E+15
274710019
42648246.56 173287981.6
1.02864E+16
294406917
42648246.56 317358265.6
5.26764E+14
506504645
42648246.56 337055163.6
2.87131E+16
301409332
42648246.56 549152891.6
6.13769E+16
428932669
42648246.56 344057578.6
7.20378E+15

1.93485E+17

Average Annual Increase

)
(

357,918,359.6

(
)

Evaluation for Standard Deviation

)
(

Projected Values
Table 2.18. Projected values for Ammonium Sulphate supply using ASLM
Year
A
Yc (A+Yi+1)
2014
42648246.56
2015
42648246.56
2016
42648246.56
2017
42648246.56
2018
42648246.56
2019
42648246.56
2020
42648246.56
2021
42648246.56
2022
42648246.56
2023
42648246.56
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method
Formula:

471580915.6
514229162.1
556877408.7
599525655.2
642173901.8
684822148.3
727470394.9
770118641.4
812766888
855415134.6

Where:
Yi + 1 = value for the year ahead
X = average rate of increases
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Table 2.19. AGCM analysis for Ammonium Sulphate supply

Net Weight
% increase
Yc
(Y-Yc)2
(kg)
45098450
0
2234047.333
1.83736E+15
315270114
599.0708417
4006747.824
9.68849E+16
232401495
-26.28495862 7186073.405
5.0722E+16
168079447
-27.67712316 12888170.97
2.40843E+16
130639735
-22.27500903 23114841.93
1.15616E+16
274710019
110.2806003
41456302.76
5.44073E+16
294406917
7.170069032
74351580.83
4.84244E+16
506504645
72.04237256
133349025.5
1.39245E+17
301409332
-40.4922867
239160518.1
3.87491E+15
428932669
42.30902081
0
0
714.1435269
4.31042E+17
average %

79.34928077
(

) (

Evaluation for Standard Deviation

)
(

Projected Values
Table 2.20 Projected values for Ammonium Sulphate Supply using AGCM
Year
Yi-1
Yc
2014
428,932,669
769287656.8
2015
769287656.8
1379711880
2016
1379711880
2474503333
2017
2474503333
4438003929
2018
4438003929
7959528128
2019
7959528128
14275356449
2020
14275356449
25602749119
2021
25602749119
45918346400
2022
45918346400
82354224008
2023
82354224008
1.47702E+11
Statistical Straight Line Method
Formula:
Where:

( )

Table 2.21. SSLM analysis for Ammonium Sulphate supply

Year
Net Weight (kg)
X
X2
XY
2004
45098450
1
1
45098450
2005
315270114
2
4
630540228
2006
232401495
3
9
697204485
2007
168079447
4
16
672317788
2008
130639735
5
25
653198675
2009
274710019
6
36
1648260114
2010
294406917
7
49
2060848419

2011
2012
2013

506504645
301409332
428932669
45098450

8
9
10
55

64
81
100
385

( )
) (
) ( )

2.56547E+17
2712683988
4289326690
2.56547E+17

)(

Table 2.22 Continuation for SSLM analysis

Yc
Y-Yc

-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15

-1.39935E+16

13,993,469,992,447,600

1.95817E+32

-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15

-1.08838E+16

10,883,810,214,376,000

1.18457E+32

-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15

-7.77415E+15
-4.66449E+15

7,774,150,083,264,220
4,664,489,970,698,970

6.04374E+31
2.17575E+31

-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15

-1.55483E+15

1,554,829,885,016,050

2.4175E+30

-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15

1.55483E+15

-1,554,830,019,156,870

2.4175E+30

-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15

4.66449E+15

-4,664,490,047,703,170

2.17575E+31

-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15

7.77415E+15

-7,774,149,883,848,650

6.04374E+31

-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15

1.08838E+16
1.39935E+16

-10,883,810,137,187,200
-13,993,470,057,907,000

1.18457E+32
1.95817E+32

(
Evaluation for Standard Deviation
)
(

Projected Values

(Y-Yc)2

)( )

7.97774E+32

Table 2.23 Projected values for Ammonium Sulphate supply using SSLM
Year
X
A
B
Yc (a+bX)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16

3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15

1.71031E+16
2.02128E+16
2.33225E+16
2.64321E+16
2.95418E+16
3.26514E+16
3.57611E+16
3.88708E+16
4.19804E+16
4.50901E+16

Statistical Parabolic Method

Formula:
Where:
( )( ) ( )(
)
( ) ( )

(
) ( )( )
( ) ( )
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Table 2.24 SPCM analysis for Ammonium Sulphate supply

Net Weight
X
X2
X4
XY
X2 Y
(kg)
45098450
-9
81
6561
-405886050
3652974450
315270114
-7
49
2401
-2206890798 15448235586
232401495
-5
25
625
-1162007475
5810037375
168079447
-3
9
81
-504238341
1512715023
130639735
-1
1
1
-130639735
130639735
274710019
1
1
1
274710019
274710019
294406917
3
9
81
883220751
2649662253
506504645
5
25
625
2532523225
12662616125
301409332
7
49
2401
2109865324
14769057268
428932669
9
81
6561 3860394021
34743546189

2,697,452,823

(
(

)(

330

19338

5251050941

)( ) ( )(
( ) ( )
) (
)(
) (
( )(
)

91654194023

)
)

(
(

)
(

)(
(

)(

( )( )
) ( )
) (
))(
) (
)

Table 2.25 Continuation for SPM analysis

C
Yc

259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9

15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58

312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527

141524863.8
163356040.5
187685560.8
214513424.7
243839632.2
275664183.4
309987078.2
346808316.6
386127898.6
427945824.2

(Y-Yc)2
9.29805E+15
2.30779E+16
1.99951E+15
2.15611E+15
1.28142E+16
9.1043E+11
2.42741E+14
2.55029E+16
7.17724E+15
9.73863E+11
8.22706E+16

Evaluation for Standard Deviation

)

(
28,682,852.02
Projected Values
Table 2.26 Projected values for the supply of Ammonium Sulphate using SPCM
Year
X
a
b
C
Yc (a+bX+cX2)

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29

259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9

15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58

312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527

472262093.5
519076706.4
568389662.9
620200963
674510606.8
731318594.1
790624925.1
852429599.7
916732618
983533979.8

Table 2.27 Summary of obtained results for standard deviation using each method
Arithmetic Straight Line Method
43,986,939.79
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method
65,653,776.69
Statistical Straight Line Method
2,824,488,974,949,820.00
Statistical Parabolic Curve Method
28,682,845.63
Choosing Projected Demand
Table 2.28 Summary of Ammonium Sulphate demand using each method
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Arithmetic
Straight Line
Method
87,746,696.56
357,918,360.56
275,049,741.56
210,727,693.56
173,287,981.56
317,358,265.56
337,055,163.56
549,152,891.56
344,057,578.56

Arithmetic
Geometric
Curve Method
2,234,047.33
4,006,747.82
7,186,073.40
12,888,170.97
23,114,841.93
41,456,302.76
74,351,580.83
133,349,025.45
239,160,518.05
-

Statistical Straight Line

Method

Statistical Parabolic
Curve Method

(13,993,469,947,349,100.00)
(10,883,809,899,105,900.00)
(7,774,149,850,862,730.00)
(4,664,489,802,619,520.00)
(1,554,829,754,376,320.00)
1,554,830,293,866,890.00
4,664,490,342,110,090.00
7,774,150,390,353,290.00
10,883,810,438,596,500.00
13,993,470,486,839,700.00

141,524,863.82
163,356,040.49
187,685,560.78
214,513,424.70
243,839,632.24
275,664,183.39
309,987,078.17
346,808,316.57
386,127,898.59
427,945,824.24

Historical Values

Mass

Historical Values
ASLM
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AGCM
SSLM
SPCM

Year

Figure 2.6. Graphical representation of Ammonium Sulphate of Historical supply using

the four methods
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

Table 2.29 Summary of projected supply of Ammonium Sulphate using each method
Arithmetic
Arithmetic
Statistical Straight Line
Statistical
Straight Line
Geometric Curve
Parabolic Curve
471,580,915.56
769,287,656.82
17,103,130,535,082,900.00 472,262,093.50
514,229,162.11 1,379,711,879.52 20,212,790,583,326,100.00 519,076,706.38
556,877,408.67 2,474,503,332.54 23,322,450,631,569,300.00 568,389,662.89
599,525,655.22 4,438,003,929.42 26,432,110,679,812,500.00 620,200,963.02
642,173,901.78 7,959,528,127.74 29,541,770,728,055,700.00 674,510,606.77
684,822,148.33 14,275,356,449.40 32,651,430,776,298,900.00 731,318,594.14
727,470,394.89 25,602,749,118.65 35,761,090,824,542,100.00 790,624,925.13
770,118,641.44 45,918,346,400.37 38,870,750,872,785,300.00 852,429,599.74
812,766,888.00 82,354,224,008.26 41,980,410,921,028,500.00 916,732,617.97
855,415,134.56 147,701,708,438.44 45,090,070,969,271,700.00 983,533,979.83

50,000,000,000,000,000.00
Mass

40,000,000,000,000,000.00
30,000,000,000,000,000.00
20,000,000,000,000,000.00
10,000,000,000,000,000.00

2023

ASLM
2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Year

ASLM

AGCM

SSLM

SPCM

Figure 2.7. Graphical Representation of projected supply of Ammonium Sulphate using

the four methods
Comparison of the Four Methods
Arithmetic Straight Line vs. Statistical Parabolic Curve
The two methods of projection arithmetic straight line and statistical parabolic
curve methods give graph that are both increasing. And the only different is the
representation of equation also the result of calculated standard deviation of the SPCM
gives the lesser value than to the ASLM.
Arithmetic Geometric Curve vs. Statistical Parabolic Curve
The projection of arithmetic geometric curve and statistical parabolic curve
method shows the graph are both increasing. But the arithmetic geometric curve method
in first seven years it has gradual increasing but suddenly it increased rapidly and this is
not realistic while statistical parabolic curve would still have the least deviation.
Statistical Straight Line vs. Statistical Parabolic Curve
The method of projection Statistical Straight Line and Statistical Parabolic
Curve method gives both constantly increasing in the graph but the value of standard
deviation of SSLM has huge amount so it is not realistic since the values show
favourable result of projection for the Statistical Parabolic Curve since the method has
the lowest deviation obtained.

Table 2.30 Projected Supply for the next ten (10) years using Statistical Parabolic Curve
Method
Year
SPCM
2014
472,262,093.50
2015
519,076,706.38
2016
568,389,662.89
2017
620,200,963.02
2018
674,510,606.77
2019
731,318,594.14
2020
790,624,925.13
2021
852,429,599.74
2022
916,732,617.97
2023
983,533,979.83

SPCM Projected Values

1E+09
500000000
0
201420152016
20172018

2019 2020

2021 2022
2023

Figure 2.8. Graphical representation on the projected supply of Ammonium Sulphate

Table 2.31. Difference of historical demand and supply of Ammonium Sulphate
Year
Demand, kg
Supply, kg
2004
12,442,700.00
14,378,163.64
2005
46,539,548.48
28,888,460.61
2006
87,202,162.12
42,707,757.58
2007
134,430,540.91
55,836,054.55
2008
188,224,684.85
68,273,351.52
2009
248,584,593.94
80,019,648.48
2010
315,510,268.18
91,074,945.45
2011
389,001,707.58
101,439,242.42
2012
469,058,912.12
111,112,539.39
2013
555,681,881.82
120,094,836.36

Historical Demand vs Supply

700,000,000.00
600,000,000.00

Mass

500,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
300,000,000.00

Demand

200,000,000.00

Supply

100,000,000.00
0.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Year

Figure 2.9 Graphical representation of difference of Historical Demand and Supply for
Ammonium Sulphate

Table 2.32. Difference of projected demand and supply of Ammonium Sulphate

Year
Demand, kg
Supply, kg
2014
729,589,727.53
472,262,093.50
2015
882,138,508.84
519,076,706.38
2016
1,049,342,304.00
568,389,662.89
2017
1,231,201,113.01
620,200,963.02
2018
1,427,714,935.86
674,510,606.77
2019
1,638,883,772.56
731,318,594.14
2020
1,864,707,623.12
790,624,925.13
2021
2,105,186,487.52
852,429,599.74
2022
2,360,320,365.76
916,732,617.97
2023
2,630,109,257.86
983,533,979.83

Demand vs Supply
3,000,000,000.00
2,500,000,000.00

Mass

2,000,000,000.00
1,500,000,000.00

Demand

1,000,000,000.00

Supply

500,000,000.00
0.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Year

Figure 2.10. Graphical Representation of Difference of Projected Demand and Supply

for Ammonium Sulphate
The graph shows the amount of unsatisfied demand for ammonium sulfate. It is
increasing rapidly, while the supply are little bit increased since the demand is higher
than the supply it means the project of building an ammonium sulfate manufacturing
plant has big opportunity to satisfied the demand of the other industry. And it has huge
benefit of the company.