Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
go to sheet:
Simple 1 Historical financials as a starting point
Simple 2 Simple financial projections for the following 3 years
Simple 3 Introduce average formulas requiring iterations
Simple 4 Derive cash flow data for company valuation
Enhanced 1 Advanced version including modelling of cash flows statement
includes various examples of derived financial analysis & sensitivity analysis
Simple Dividend Discount Example of a simple dividend discount model
Share Price History Share Price History Contact Energy
Kurt Hess, University of Waikato, WMS *** Modelling Exercise Only *** p. 1 of 89 11/02/2021 19:15:54
Contact Energy Financial Projections Simple 1
projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) 1996 1997
year ending 30 September 1998 1999 2000 2001
INCOME STATEMENT / STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Total operating revenue 353.3 471.1 489.4
Total operating expenses (excl. depreciation) 220.2 273.9 278.0
Depreciation and amortisation 39.4 57.1 57.9
Net finance expense 20.6 39.1 38.8
Operating surplus before tax 73.1 101.1 114.7
Tax on operating surplus 16.7 23.7 32.9
Other special items (88.9) 0.0 (1.6)
Net surplus (deficit) for period (32.6) 77.4 80.3
Dividends 150.0 47.0 48.0
Total operating expenses (excl. depreciation) 220.2 273.9 278.0 446.3 491.0 540.1 determined by projected operating cost/revenue
Depreciation and amortisation 39.4 57.1 57.9 63.1 75.1 75.8 set as % of previous year non-current assets
Net finance expense 20.6 39.1 38.8 37.9 56.6 51.0 =Interest cost * (Previous Year Debt - Cash)
Operating surplus before tax 73.1 101.1 114.7 235.7 238.6 280.6
Tax on operating surplus 16.7 23.7 32.9 66.0 66.8 78.6 tax rate * pre-tax income
Other special items (88.9) 0.0 (1.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net surplus (deficit) for period (32.6) 77.4 80.3 169.7 171.8 202.0
Dividends 150.0 47.0 48.0 118.8 137.4 161.6 net surplus * assumed dividend payout ratio
Retained earnings (182.6) 30.4 32.3 50.9 34.4 40.4
Model assumptions
Income statement parameters
Sales revenue growth 33.37% 3.87% 60.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Operating expenses (excl. depr.) as % of revenue 62.3% 58.1% 56.8% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0%
Depreciation /non-curr. assets previous year 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
Financing cost / (debt - deposits) previous year 8.6% 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Tax rate 22.9% 23.4% 28.6% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0%
Dividend payout rate -460.5% 60.7% 59.8% 70.0% 80.0% 80.0%
Payables & accruals / operating expense 44.4% 39.4% 42.4% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Net interest bearing-debt (debt net of deposits) 456.1 407.2 473.5 708.1 637.6 594.8
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Simple 3
projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) 1996 1997
year ending 30 September 1998 1999 2000 2001
INCOME STATEMENT / STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Total operating revenue (sales) 353.3 471.1 489.4 783.0 861.3 947.5
Total operating expenses (excl. depreciation) 220.2 273.9 278.0 446.3 491.0 540.1
Depreciation and amortisation 39.4 57.1 57.9 69.0 75.2 75.8
Net finance expense 20.6 39.1 38.8 47.2 53.8 49.2
Operating surplus before tax 73.1 101.1 114.7 220.5 241.4 282.4
Tax on operating surplus 16.7 23.7 32.9 61.7 67.6 79.1
Other special items (88.9) 0.0 (1.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net surplus (deficit) for period (32.6) 77.4 80.3 158.8 173.8 203.3
Dividends 150.0 47.0 48.0 111.1 139.0 162.7
Retained earnings (182.6) 30.4 32.3 47.6 34.8 40.7
Model assumptions
Income statement parameters
Sales revenue growth 33.37% 3.87% 60.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Operating expenses (excl. depr.) as % of revenue 62.3% 58.1% 56.8% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0%
Depreciation /non-curr. assets previous year 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
Financing cost / (debt - deposits) previous year 8.6% 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Tax rate 22.9% 23.4% 28.6% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0%
Dividend payout rate -460.5% 60.7% 59.8% 70.0% 80.0% 80.0%
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Simple 3
Debt is plug
Kurt Hess, University of Waikato, WMS *** Modelling Exercise Only *** p. 5 of 89 11/02/2021 19:15:54
Contact Energy Financial Projections Simple 4
projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) 1996 1997
year ending 30 September 1998 1999 2000 2001 Model explanatory remarks
INCOME STATEMENT / STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Total operating revenue (sales) 353.3 471.1 489.4 783.0 861.3 947.5 determined by sales growth parameter below
Total operating expenses (excl. depreciation) 220.2 273.9 278.0 446.3 491.0 540.1 determined by projected operating cost/revenue
Depreciation and amortisation 39.4 57.1 57.9 69.0 75.2 75.8 set as % of AVERAGE non-current assets
Net finance expense 20.6 39.1 38.8 49.0 57.9 53.9 =Interest cost * (AVERAGE Debt - Cash)
Operating surplus before tax 73.1 101.1 114.7 218.7 237.3 277.7
Tax on operating surplus 16.7 23.7 32.9 65.6 71.2 83.3 tax rate * pre-tax income
Other special items (88.9) 0.0 (1.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net surplus (deficit) for period (32.6) 77.4 80.3 153.1 166.1 194.4
Dividends 150.0 47.0 48.0 107.2 132.9 155.5 net surplus * assumed dividend payout ratio
Retained earnings (182.6) 30.4 32.3 45.9 33.2 38.9
Model assumptions
Income statement parameters
Sales revenue growth 33.37% 3.87% 60.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Operating expenses (excl. depr.) as % of revenue 62.3% 58.1% 56.8% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0%
Depreciation /non-curr. assets previous year 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
Financing cost / (debt - deposits) previous year 8.6% 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Tax rate 22.9% 23.4% 28.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Dividend payout rate -460.5% 60.7% 59.8% 70.0% 80.0% 80.0%
Payables & accruals / operating expense 44.4% 39.4% 42.4% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Net interest bearing-debt (debt net of deposits) 456.1 407.2 473.5 751.8 694.6 653.5
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Simple 4
Free Cash Flow = Op. CF + Inv. CF 54.4 (38.6) (155.2) 150.6 179.4
note: free cash flow reported 60.4 (16.6) compare with figures actually reported
Discounted cash flows (assumes valuation 30/9/1998, and cash flows timed mid year, i.e. 30/3/xx)
Number of years to cash flow: 0.5 1.5 2.5 usually more years projected
Discounted cash flows 1999 - 2001 (114.2) 161.2 163.6
Terminal value 2002 and later, perpetuity growing @ 5.0% 2,453.7 formula for growing perpetuity
Total discounted cash flows (114.2) 161.2 2,617.3
Kurt Hess, University of Waikato, WMS *** Modelling Exercise Only *** p. 7 of 89 11/02/2021 19:15:54
Contact Energy Financial Projections Simple 4
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Price Sensitivity to Cost of Equity DCF Price Sensitivity to Cost of Equity
$35 $12
$30 $10
$5 $2
$0 $0
4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26%
Cost of Equity (%) Cost of Equity (%)
Data Tables
Cost of Price Cost of Price
Equity (DCF) Equity (DDM)
$3.63 $4.52
5.0% 32.26 12.0% $ 11.21
6.0% 19.73 13.0% $ 7.49
7.0% 14.03 14.0% $ 5.63
8.0% 10.78 15.0% $ 4.52
9.0% 8.67 16.0% $ 3.78
10.0% 7.20 17.0% $ 3.24
11.0% 6.11 18.0% $ 2.85
12.0% 5.28 19.0% $ 2.54
13.0% 4.61 20.0% $ 2.29
14.0% 4.07 21.0% $ 2.09
15.0% 3.63 22.0% $ 1.92
16.0% 3.25 23.0% $ 1.77
17.0% 2.93 24.0% $ 1.65
Kurt Hess, University of Waikato, WMS *** Modelling Exercise Only *** p. 8 of 89 11/02/2021 19:15:54
Contact Energy Financial Projections Enhanced 1
1996 2005
Ended Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September/June 30 Sept 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
INCOME STATEMENT / STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Total operating revenue (sales) 353.3 471.1 489.4 854.8 868.0 1,097.4 1,052.6 1,209.1 1,277.0 999.6 1,369.9 1,422.4 1,478.2 1,537.6 1,600.6
Total cash operating expenses 220.2 273.9 278.0 587.7 635.5 741.6 753.6 832.5 832.9 636.1 904.1 938.8 975.6 1,014.8 1,056.4
EBITDA (1) 133.1 197.3 211.4 267.1 232.5 355.8 299.0 376.6 444.1 363.5 465.8 483.6 502.6 522.8 544.2
Depreciation and amortisation 39.4 57.1 57.9 72.9 74.2 82.8 79.0 111.6 126.4 103.4 137.5 135.6 134.4 133.9 134.1
Other special non-cash item cost/(income) (60.4) (14.0) 14.3 5.5 17.8 (8.8) (5.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net finance expense 20.6 39.1 38.8 45.8 56.9 64.6 51.8 73.5 86.0 59.5 80.5 75.3 71.0 68.1 66.2
Operating surplus before tax 73.1 101.1 114.7 208.9 115.4 194.0 162.6 173.7 240.5 205.6 247.7 272.8 297.2 320.9 344.0
Tax on operating surplus 16.7 23.7 32.9 53.0 19.3 63.1 55.4 55.5 96.4 67.5 81.7 90.0 98.1 105.9 113.5
Other special items (88.9) 0.0 (1.6) (0.5) 0.9 (0.3) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net surplus (deficit) for period (32.6) 77.4 80.3 155.4 97.0 130.7 107.0 118.3 144.0 138.2 166.0 182.8 199.1 215.0 230.5
Dividends provided (150.0) (47.0) (48.0) (95.3) (102.5) (31.3) (109.6) (120.5) (198.9) (102.1) (144.2) (155.7) (167.2) (178.8) (184.5)
Dividend per share (cents) 7.78 7.95 15.79 17.52 5.43 19.00 20.90 34.50 23.61 25.00 27.00 29.00 31.00 32.00
Increase (decrease) retained earnings (182.6) 30.4 32.3 60.1 (5.5) 99.4 (2.6) (2.3) (54.9) 36.1 21.8 27.1 31.9 36.2 45.9
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Enhanced 1
1996 2005
Ended Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September/June 30 Sept 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
BALANCE SHEET / STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
Assets
Short-term deposit (="Net Cash") 32.6 15.0 8.7 3.5 147.8 137.5 44.6 50.4 82.5 44.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Receivables & prepayments 46.2 47.7 74.3 126.7 175.7 148.8 166.8 263.6 159.3 214.6 223.8 231.4 241.7 250.4 261.8
Prepaid gas 6.5 14.2
Taxation receivables 1.9 4.7 9.1 2.5 7.7 7.2 10.5 5.1 - 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Inventories 26.8 21.7 15.3 15.1 18.6 12.9 13.4 32.2 31.9 30.4 32.0 33.3 34.6 36.0 37.4
Investment in partnership 52.5
Total current assets (net of overdraft) 107.5 89.2 107.4 206.8 364.1 306.5 235.3 351.4 273.7 294.4 285.8 294.6 306.2 316.3 329.3
Fixed assets, investments, goodwill 1,322.8 1,359.8 1,468.5 2,303.1 2,337.0 2,284.6 3,117.3 3,603.3 4,105.5 4,079.9 4,022.4 3,986.8 3,972.4 3,978.6 4,004.5
Prepaid gas 53.9 30.0
Total assets 1,430.3 1,449.0 1,575.9 2,563.8 2,731.1 2,591.1 3,352.6 3,954.7 4,379.3 4,374.3 4,308.2 4,281.4 4,278.7 4,294.9 4,333.8
Interest-bearing non-current liab. 477.6 221.5 482.2 727.5 943.0 789.5 723.3 1,116.8 1,063.6 1,060.7 1,002.1 939.6 895.6 865.8 848.2
Estimated & other non-current liabilities 23.0 31.3 56.0 30.4 19.0 15.1 20.3 44.8 35.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
Non-current liabilities 500.6 252.8 538.2 757.9 962.0 804.6 743.5 1,161.6 1,099.0 1,082.7 1,024.1 961.6 917.6 887.8 870.2
Total liabilities 609.3 597.5 692.1 946.5 1,145.6 929.7 854.4 1,459.2 1,390.7 1,339.4 1,251.5 1,197.7 1,163.0 1,143.0 1,135.9
Shareholders' equity 821.1 851.4 883.8 1,617.3 1,585.5 1,661.5 2,498.2 2,495.5 2,988.5 3,034.9 3,056.7 3,083.8 3,115.7 3,151.9 3,197.8
Total liabilities & equity 1,430.4 1,449.0 1,575.8 2,563.8 2,731.1 2,591.1 3,352.6 3,954.7 4,379.3 4,374.3 4,308.2 4,281.4 4,278.7 4,294.9 4,333.8
Gross interest-bearing debt ("borrowings") 488.7 422.2 482.2 727.5 943.0 789.5 723.3 1,191.1 1,118.1 1,085.9 1,002.1 939.6 895.6 865.8 848.2
Net interest bearing-debt (debt net of deposits) 456.1 407.2 473.5 724.0 795.1 652.0 678.6 1,140.6 1,035.5 1,041.5 972.1 909.6 865.6 835.8 818.2
prepared by Kurt Hess, University of Waikato, WMS Modeling Exercise Page 10 of 89 25891291.xls Enhanced 1 11/02/2021 19:15:54
Contact Energy Financial Projections Enhanced 1
1996 2005
Ended Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September 30 Sept 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
Cash from operating activities (calculated from surplus, see reconciliation)
Net surplus (deficit) for period (32.6) 77.4 80.3 155.4 97.0 130.7 107.0 118.3 144.0 138.2 166.0 182.8 199.1 215.0 230.5
Add back non-cash items from income statement:
Depreciation and amortisation 39.4 57.1 57.9 72.9 74.2 82.8 79.0 111.6 126.4 103.4 137.5 135.6 134.4 133.9 134.1
Other adjustments 87.0 2.4 (0.8) (6.6) (51.7) (2.7) 5.1 28.8 (10.1) (49.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjust for changes in working capital:
(Increase) decrease in receivables (46.2) (1.5) (26.5) (44.8) (14.5) (5.2) (29.8) (27.2) 91.9 (58.8) (9.2) (7.6) (10.3) (8.7) (11.5)
(Increase) decrease in prepaid gas (60.4) 16.2 44.2
(Increase) decr. in tax receivables (1.9) (2.8) (4.4) 6.6 (5.2) 0.5 (3.3) 11.3 43.7 (33.7) 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(Increase) decr. in inventories 0.8 5.1 6.4 0.2 0.5 3.3 (0.5) (9.4) 0.3 0.5 (1.6) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5)
Increase (decr.) in payables & accruals 78.2 2.0 17.2 (2.3) (15.6) 2.3 0.9 47.1 (16.6) 74.6 (4.1) 8.7 9.3 9.9 10.5
Net cash from operating activities 124.7 139.7 130.1 120.9 100.9 255.9 158.4 280.5 379.7 174.9 293.5 318.2 331.2 348.6 362.1
Cash at beginning of period 0.0 32.6 15.0 8.7 3.5 147.8 137.5 0.4 50.4 82.5 44.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Net increase (decrease) cash 32.6 (17.6) (6.3) (5.3) 144.4 (10.3) (137.1) 49.5 32.1 (47.6) (14.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash at end of period 32.6 15.0 8.7 3.5 147.8 137.5 0.4 49.9 82.5 34.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Enhanced 1
1996 2005
Ended Ended projected projected projected projected projected
30 Sept 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Operating revenue (sales) modelling
Electricity
Electricity generated (GWh) 4,436 8,343 9,225 8,296 8,450 8,660 8,523 10,049 10,143 7,970.0 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500
Average sales price per year (NZ$/MWh) 54.77 43.95 42.45 62.52 63.81 87.77 89.41 96.26 107.72 108.83 114.27 119.99 125.99 132.28 138.90
growth rate (decrease) (%) (19.8%) (3.4%) 47.3% 2.1% 37.6% 1.9% 7.7% 11.9% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Total electricity sales (NZ$ million) 243.0 366.7 391.6 518.7 539.2 760.1 762.1 967.3 1,092.6 867.4 1,199.9 1,259.9 1,322.8 1,389.0 1,458.4
Gas
External sales of gas (NZ$ million) 108.3 102.7 94.6 248.2 240.6 295.2 271.4 217.6 155.5 116.7 150.0 142.5 135.4 128.6 122.2
growth rate (decrease) (%) (5.1%) (7.9%) 162.4% (3.1%) 22.7% (8.1%) (19.8%) (28.5%) (24.9%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%)
Other
Other operating revenue (NZ$ million) 2.0 1.8 3.2 87.9 88.2 42.1 19.2 24.2 28.9 15.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Total operating revenue in NZ$ million 353.3 471.1 489.4 854.8 868.0 1,097.4 1,052.6 1,209.1 1,277.0 999.6 1,369.9 1,422.4 1,478.2 1,537.6 1,600.6
2005
8 mos. Ended projected projected projected projected projected
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Margins, expense ratios, balance sheet equations
EBITDA margin (%) 37.7% 41.9% 43.2% 31.2% 26.8% 32.4% 28.4% 31.1% 34.8% 36.4% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%
Depreciation /average non-curr. assets & investm. 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Net financing cost / net borrowings 9.1% 8.8% 7.6% 7.5% 8.9% 7.8% 8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Tax rate 22.9% 23.4% 28.6% 25.4% 16.7% 32.5% 34.1% 31.9% 40.1% 32.8% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0%
Number of shares issued (in million) 604.0 604.0 604.0 584.9 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6 576.6
Earnings per share (cents) 12.82 13.30 25.73 16.58 22.67 18.55 20.51 24.98 31.95 28.78 31.69 34.54 37.28 39.97
Dividend per share (cents) 7.78 7.95 15.79 17.52 5.43 19.00 20.90 34.50 23.61 25.00 27.00 29.00 31.00 32.00
Dividend payout rate -460.5% 60.7% 59.8% 61.4% 105.7% n.m. 102.4% 101.9% 138.1% 73.9% 86.9% 85.2% 84.0% 83.2% 80.1%
Receivables & prepayments / sales 8.7% 10.0% 12.5% 11.8% 17.4% 14.8% 15.0% 17.8% 16.6% 14.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Inventory / sales 5.1% 5.2% 3.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Payables & accruals / operating expense 29.6% 37.5% 40.6% 20.4% 18.4% 15.9% 15.7% 16.7% 21.7% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2%
Dividend payables as % of dividends decl. 0.0% 76.6% 75.0% 69.7% 70.5% 0.0%
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Enhanced 1
Company valuation based on discounted cash flows (DCF)
2005
Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September/June 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cash flow from firm (excl. any finance expenses)
Net cash from operating activities 100.9 255.9 158.4 280.5 379.7 174.9 293.5 318.2 331.2 348.6 362.1
Net cash flow from (used in) investing (25.9) 14.3 (119.7) (528.9) (74.5) (67.1) (80.0) (100.0) (120.0) (140.0) (160.0)
Adjustments:
Net financing costs 56.9 64.6 51.8 73.5 86.0 59.5 80.5 75.3 71.0 68.1 66.2
Tax shield of financing costs (9.5) (21.0) (17.7) (23.5) (34.5) (19.5) (26.6) (24.8) (23.4) (22.5) (21.8)
Cash flow from firm's operating assets (unlevered firm) 122.4 313.8 72.9 (198.3) 356.7 147.7 267.5 268.6 258.8 254.2 246.4
Growth rate 156.4% (76.8%) (372.2%) 279.9% (44.8%) 47.7% 0.4% (3.7%) (1.8%) (3.1%)
Discounted cash flows (assumes valuation 30/6/2006, and cash flows timed mid year, i.e. 31/12/xxxx)
Number of years to cash flow 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
Discounted cash flows 2007-2010 253.8 218.3 191.5 165.7
Terminal value 2010 and later, perpetuity growing @: 7.0% (Growth) 3,546.5
Total discounted cash flows 253.8 218.3 191.5 3,712.2
Value of unlevered firm (=Sum of disc. cash flows) 4,375.8
deduct (market) value of Contact's net debt (30/9/05): (972.1)
Value of equity (NZ$ million) 3,403.8
Number of shares outstanding (in million per 31/3/05) 576.63
Value per share (NZ$) 5.90
2005
Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September/June 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dividends to shareholders (NZ$ million) 95.3 102.5 31.3 109.6 120.5 198.9 102.1 144.2 155.7 167.2 178.8 184.5
Dividend in NZ$ per share (576.63 million shares) 0.165 0.178 0.054 0.190 0.209 0.345 0.177 0.250 0.270 0.290 0.310 0.320
Growth rate 7.5% (69.4%) 249.7% 10.0% 65.1% (31.6%) 7.8% 8.0% 7.4% 6.9% 3.2%
Discounted dividends per share (assumes valuation 30/9/05 and full dividend paid mid year, i.e. 30/3/xx)
Number of years to cash flow 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
PV cash flows to end of valuation horizon 0.252 0.235 0.219 0.196
Terminal value 2010 and later, perpetuity growing @: 10.0% (DGrowth) 4.316
Total discounted cash flows 0.252 0.235 0.219 4.513
Fair value of share (= Sum of disc. cash flows) 5.22
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Contact Energy Financial Projections Enhanced 1
Credit analysis
2005
8 mos. Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Selected credit ratios
Operating cash flow / total debt 38% 33% 27% 17% 11% 32% 22% 24% 34% 21% 29% 34% 37% 40% 43%
Free operating cash flow / total debt -465% 14% -3% -25% 8% 34% 5% -21% 27% 13% 21% 23% 24% 24% 24%
EBITDA interest coverage 6.5x 5.0x 5.5x 5.8x 4.1x 5.5x 5.8x 5.1x 5.2x 6.1x 5.8x 6.4x 7.1x 7.7x 8.2x
One element in credit analysis is the comparison with average credit ratios per rating category:
Adjusted (*) key industrial financial ratios, Source S&P's Credit Week, January 6, 1999
Three-year (1993-1995) medians AAA AA A BBB BB B
FFO / total debt 116.4% 72.3% 47.5% 34.7% 18.4% 10.9%
Free operating cash flow / total debt 76.8% 30.5% 18.8% 8.4% 2.4% 1.2%
EBITDA interest coverage 20.3x 14.9x 8.5x 6.0x 3.6x 2.3x
(*) Adjustments were made for unusual items (e.g. non-recurring gains) and by capitalizing operating leases (which increases debt)
EBITDA: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amorization
FFO: funds from operations = cash flow from operatingactivities
Free operating cash flow: cash flow from operating activities minus net cash used in investing activities
BBB+ to BBB
43%
22/12/02
38% S&P rating actions 37% 40%
33% 32% 34% 34%
40% 27% 29%
22% 24% 21% AA
17%
A- to BBB+
A
0% Average
projected 2007
projected 2008
projected 2009
projected 2010
projected 2006
8 mos.
1998
1999
2001
2003
1997
2002
2004
1996
Contact
Energy
BBB
Average
BB
Average
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EVA Model
2005
8 mos. Ended projected projected projected projected projected
(in NZ$ million) year ending 30 September 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Operating revenue (sales) 353.3 471.1 489.4 854.8 868.0 1,097.4 1,052.6 1,209.1 1,277.0 999.6 1,369.9 1,422.4 1,478.2 1,537.6 1,600.6
less:
Operating expenses (excl. depreciation) (220.2) (273.9) (278.0) (587.7) (635.5) (741.6) (753.6) (832.5) (832.9) (636.1) (904.1) (938.8) (975.6) (1014.8) (1056.4)
Depreciation and amortisation (39.4) (57.1) (57.9) (72.9) (74.2) (82.8) (79.0) (111.6) (126.4) (103.4) (137.5) (135.6) (134.4) (133.9) (134.1)
Tax expense (16.7) (23.7) (32.9) (53.0) (19.3) (63.1) (55.4) (55.5) (96.4) (67.5) (81.7) (90.0) (98.1) (105.9) (113.5)
adjustments:
Tax shield finance exp. (4.7) (9.1) (11.1) (13.7) (9.5) (21.0) (17.7) (23.5) (34.5) (19.5) (26.6) (24.8) (23.4) (22.5) (21.8)
Non-operational, non-recurring items (14.8)
NOPAT 72.2 107.3 109.5 112.7 129.5 188.9 146.9 186.1 186.8 173.1 219.9 233.2 246.7 260.6 274.8
Growth rate 48.6% 2.0% 2.9% 14.9% 45.8% (22.2%) 26.7% 0.4% 23.6% (6.3%) 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5%
Gross interest-bearing debt (D) 488.7 422.2 482.2 727.5 943.0 789.5 723.3 1,191.1 1,118.1 1,085.9 1,002.1 939.6 895.6 865.8 848.2
Shareholders' equity (E) 821.1 851.4 883.8 1,617.3 1,585.5 1,661.5 2,498.2 2,495.5 2,988.5 3,034.9 3,056.7 3,083.8 3,115.7 3,151.9 3,197.8
Book equity adjustment:
back out revaluation of generation assets: (673.3) (673.3) (673.3) (1516.3) (1516.3) (2066.3) (2066.3) (2066.3) (2066.3) (2066.3) (2066.3) (2066.3)
Capital 1,309.7 1,273.7 1,366.0 1,671.4 1,855.1 1,777.6 1,705.1 2,170.2 2,040.2 2,054.4 1,992.4 1,957.0 1,944.9 1,951.3 1,979.7
CCR (see WACC calculation above): 12.20% 12.51% 12.35% 11.74% 11.19% 11.67% 11.82% 10.88% 10.89% 11.04% 11.23% 11.40% 11.55% 11.67% 11.79%
EVA for rE @ 15% (51.4) (52.0) (59.2) (83.5) (78.0) (18.5) (54.6) (50.1) (35.4) (53.6) (3.8) 10.1 22.1 32.8 41.4
EVA for rE @ 10% (46.5) (9.5) (15.0) (36.3) (32.4) 30.9 (5.5) (1.2) 10.7 (5.2) 45.7 61.0 74.6 87.1 98.0
Break-even rE that generates EVA = 0 4.3% 8.9% 8.3% 6.2% 6.4% 13.1% 9.4% 9.9% 11.2% 9.5% 14.6% 16.0% 17.1% 18.0% 18.7%
200 2,000
100 1,000
0 0
(100) (1000)
1997
1998
1999
2002
2003
2004
projected 2006
projected 2010
8 mos.
2000
2001
projected 2007
projected 2008
projected 2009
1996
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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) Sensitivity Analysis
8 6.00% 4.830
7.00% 5.903
8.00% 7.512
6 $5.90 9.00% 10.195
10.00% 15.559
4 11.00% 31.654
12.00% #DIV/0!
13.00% - 32.724
2 14.00% - 16.629
15.00% - 11.264
- 16.00% - 8.582
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Growth rate (%)
15.0
Cost of equity fixed @ %
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t
Formula for growing perpetuity discounted back:
((1+Growth)*CF/(WACC-Growth))/(1+WACC)^t
t
Formula for growing perpetuity discounted back:
((1+DGrowth)*DPS/(COE-DGrowth))/(1+COE)^t
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AA
Average
A
Average
Contact
Energy
BBB
Average
BB
Average
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3,000
2,000
1,000
Capital (in NZ$ million)
(1000)
projected 2010
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Simple Dividend Discount Model
DPS
PV =
r E −g
Present value of dividends (PV) 2.63 in NZ$ (growing perpetuity)
Sensitivity Analysis
The fair value estimate is extremely sensitive to the difference rE - g. As this difference approaches zero,
the estimated share price will go towards infinite values.
growth
20 rate (%)
9.00%
18
9.20%
Fair value share (NZ$)
16 9.40%
14 9.60%
12 9.80%
10.00%
10
10.20%
8 10.40%
6 10.60%
4 Issue Price $3.10 10.80%
2 11.00%
11.20%
-
11.40%
10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 11.60%
Growth rate (g) in % with rE fixed at 15% 11.80%
12.00%
12.20%
12.40%
12.60%
12.80%
13.00%
13.20%
13.40%
13.60%
13.80%
14.00%
Present
value
1.32
1.36
1.41
1.46
1.52
1.58
1.65
1.72
1.80
1.88
1.98
2.08
2.19
2.32
2.47
2.63
2.82
3.04
3.29
3.59
3.95
4.39
4.94
5.64
6.58
7.90
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
Daily Chart
03 ay 31 ay
-S -9 -A -9
Weekly Chart
24 ep 9 21 ug 9
-D -99 -D -99
14 ec- 11 ec-
-A 9 -A 9
04 pr 9 01 pr 9
-A -0 -A -0
24 ug 0 21 ug 0
-N -0 -N -0
16 ov 0 13 ov 0
-M -00 -M -00
06 ar-0 03 ar-0
- 1 - 1
26 Jul- 23 Jul-
-O 01 -O 01
15 ct 12 ct
-F -01 -F -01
07 eb- 04 eb-
-J 0 -J 0
27 un 2 24 un 2
-S -02 -S -02
17 ep- 14 ep-
- 0 - 0
09 Jan 2 06 Jan 2
-M -0 -M -0
29 ay 3 26 ay 3
Share price
-A -0 -A -0
Share price
19 ug 3 16 ug 3
-D -03 -D -03
page 27 of 89
09 ec- 06 ec-
Trading Volume
-A 03 -A 03
Contact Energy Share Price and Volumes
Trading Volume
30 pr-0 27 pr-0
- -
19 Jul 4 16 Jul 4
-N -04 -N -04
11 ov 08 ov
-M -04 -M -04
01 ar-0 28 ar-
- 5 -J 05
21 Jul- 18 un-
-O 05 -O 05
10 ct 07 ct
-F -05 - -0
02 eb- 30 Feb 5
-J 06 -M -0
un ay 6
-0 -0
6 6
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
10
20
30
40
50
60
11/02/2021 19:15:54
Share price history
Share price history
5/11/1999
7/11/2006
D
CONTACT EN CONTACT ENERGY - TURNOVER BY VOLUME
Z:CENZ(P) Z:CENZ(VO)
3.34 61927 61.927
3.35 22333.8 22.3338
3.46 19749.6 19.7496
3.5 6854.5 6.8545
3.43 3110.5 3.1105
3.39 4620.7 4.6207
3.43 3121.5 3.1215
3.5 4699.3 4.6993
3.55 4270.2 4.2702
3.52 2598.4 2.5984
3.39 2830.7 2.8307
3.34 3335.1 3.3351
3.34 3250.2 3.2502
3.41 6129.6 6.1296
3.35 13661.7 13.6617
3.32 4815.3 4.8153
3.36 7064.8 7.0648
3.3 1099.8 1.0998
3.28 2798.8 2.7988
3.28 #NA #VALUE!
3.21 1726 1.726
3.19 2480.7 2.4807
3.25 2703.1 2.7031
3.23 1297.3 1.2973
3.2 616.8 0.6168
3.16 2541.2 2.5412
3.15 804 0.804
3.09 2207.1 2.2071
3.05 3597.4 3.5974
3.01 1636.8 1.6368
3.04 895.2 0.8952
3.06 2417.8 2.4178
3.07 2089.7 2.0897
3.07 1591.9 1.5919
3.04 854.3 0.8543
3.03 554.4 0.5544
3.06 1757.9 1.7579
3.08 2091.3 2.0913
3.09 1168.5 1.1685
3.1 445.4 0.4454
3.13 1390.4 1.3904
3.14 753.3 0.7533
3.12 443.4 0.4434
3.08 1553.7 1.5537
3.09 452.8 0.4528
3.08 675.4 0.6754
3.06 711.1 0.7111
3.07 238.8 0.2388
3.05 429.2 0.4292
3.05 1661.8 1.6618
3.08 4571.5 4.5715
3.06 610.1 0.6101
3.05 266.3 0.2663
3.05 1176.1 1.1761