CONCENTRATION IN EXPORTS MAY CAUSE INSTABILITY:

CRITICAL ANALYSIS:
Export diversification can lead to higher growth. Developing countries should diversify their exports
since this can for example: help them to overcome export instability or the negative impact of terms of
trade in primary products. We also provide robust empirical evidence of a positive effect of export
diversification on per capita income growth. This effect is potentially nonlinear with developing
countries benefiting from diversifying their exports in contrast to the most advanced countries that
perform better with export specialization.
If we concentrate our economy in few countries our economy could face severe shock if any major
country, like UAE on which our greater extent of export depends face disturbance or recession or any
other law and order crises like war. So its better to diverge our exports in terms of market so the risk
factor could be minimize. Here the information is given in percentage shares which is a good manner
and easy to understand. So I did not find any criticism factor.
The original table is given below:
Table 8.4: Major Exports Markets
(Percentage Share)
Country
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
Jul-Mar
11-12 12-13*
USA 19.5 18.9 17.4 16.0 14.9 14.8 15.1
UK 5.4 4.9 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4
Germany 4.3 4.2 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.1
Honk Kong 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6
U.A.E. 10.9 8.2 8.9 7.3 9.7 9.1 10.1
Sub-Total 42.8 38.3 37.9 35.3 35.8 35.4 36.3
Other
Countries
57.2 61.7 62.1 64.7 64.2 64.6 63.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0





AFTER TRANSFORMING DATA NEW TABLE:
This table shows the 5 countries share where Pakistan export concentration takes place and the share of
these countries and rest of the world in Pakistan exports with the help of graphs:
year USA UK Germany HongKong U.A.E Sub Total otherworl d
2007-08 19.5 5.4 4.3 2.7 10.9 42.8 57.2
2008-09 18.9 4.9 4.2 2.1 8.2 38.3 61.7
2009-10 17.4 5.3 4.1 2.2 8.9 37.9 62.1
2010-11 16 4.9 5.1 2 7.3 35.3 64.7
2011-12 14.9 5 4.5 1.7 9.7 35.8 64.2
averages 17.34 5.1 4.44 2.25 9 38.02 61.98
%share
2011-12 14.8 5.1 4.8 1.6 9.1 35.4 64.6
2012-13 15.1 5.4 4.1 1.6 10.1 36.3 63.7
averages 14.95 5.25 4.45 1.6 9.6 35.85 64.15

In above table we have taken averages through which we can easily analyses the share of 5 countries
and rest of the world since 2007 till 2011 that is 38.02 and 61.98 respectively and then took the
averages of same categories for 2012 and 2013 and their averages are 35.85 and 64.15 respectively.
Here we can see the decrease in concentration and increase in diversification of exports through
averages and it would be further elaborate through graphs:
The below graph shows the country to whom Pakistan is exporting largely is USA among 5 countries:

0
5
10
15
20
25
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
%

s
h
a
r
e

o
f

5

b
i
g

e
x
p
o
r
t


m
a
r
k
e
t
s

years
USA
UK
Germany
Hong Kong
U.A.E


This table shows that how after the 2009 STPF policy the concentration in exports of Pakistan decrease
and diversification increase:




SUMMARY OF ABOVE GRAPHS:
In above graphs it is clearly seen that USA is a country where our exports are highly concentrated from
19.5 to 14.9 between 2007 - 2013 and the concentration of exports among 5 countries decreased from
48.2 to 36.3 between 2007- 2013 and the world export diversification has increased from 57.2 to 63.7
between 2007-2013 .



0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-2012
5 countries
other world