1

1 Slide
Chapter 5
Discrete Probability Distribution
2 Slide
Learning objectives
1. Understand random variables and probability
distributions.
1.1. Distinguish discrete and continuous random
variables.
2. Able to compute Expected value and Variance of
discrete random variable.
3. Understand:
3.1. Discrete uniform distribution
3.2. Binomial distribution
3.3. Poisson distribution
2
3 Slide
A random variableis a numerical description of the
outcome of an experiment.
Random Variables
A discrete random variablemay assume either a
finite number of values or an infinite sequence of
values.
A continuous random variablemay assume any
numerical value in an interval or collection of
intervals.
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
4 Slide
Let x=number of TVs sold at the store in one day,
where xcan take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)
Example: JSL Appliances
n Discrete random variable with a finitenumber
of values
n Discrete random variable with an infinitesequence
of values
We can count the customers arriving, but there is nofinite
upper limit on the number that might arrive.
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
Let x=number of customers arriving in one day,
where xcan take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .
3
5 Slide
Random Variables
Question Random Variable x Type
Family
size
x=Number of dependents
reported on tax return
Discrete
Distance from
home to store
x=Distance in miles from
home to the store site
Continuous
Own dog
or cat
x=1 if own no pet;
=2 if own dog(s) only;
=3 if own cat(s) only;
=4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
Discrete
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
6 Slide
The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.
We can describe a discrete probability distribution
with a table, graph, or equation.
Discrete Probability Distributions
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
4
7 Slide
The probability distribution for discrete random
variableis defined by a probability function, denoted
by f(x), which providesthe probability for each value
of the random variable.
The required conditions for a discrete probability
function are:
Discrete Probability Distributions
f(x) >0
f(x) =1
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
8 Slide
n a tabular representation of the probability
distribution for TV sales was developed.
n Using past data on TV sales, !
Number
Units Sold of Days
0 80
1 50
2 40
3 10
4 20
200
x f(x)
0 .40
1 .25
2 .20
3 .05
4 .10
1.00
80/ 200
Discrete Probability Distributions
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
5
9 Slide
.10
.20
.30
.40
.50
0 1 2 3 4
Values of Random Variable x(TV sales)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Discrete Probability Distributions
n Graphical Representation of Probability Distribution
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
10 Slide
Expected Value and Variance
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.
The variancesummarizes the variability in the
values of a random variable.
The standard deviation, , is defined as the positive
square root of the variance.
Var(x) =
2
=(x- )
2
f(x)
E(x) = =xf(x)
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
6
11 Slide
n Expected Value
expected number of
TVs sold in a day
x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20
Expected Value and Variance
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
12 Slide
n Variance and Standard Deviation
0
1
2
3
4
-1.2
-0.2
0.8
1.8
2.8
1.44
0.04
0.64
3.24
7.84
.40
.25
.20
.05
.10
.576
.010
.128
.162
.784
x - (x - )
2
f(x) (x- )
2
f(x)
Variance of daily sales =
2
=1.660
x
TVs
squared
Standard deviation of daily sales =1.2884 TVs
Expected Value and Variance
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
7
13 Slide
In-class Exercise
n Random variables
#2 (page 188)
#5 (page 188)
n Expected value and variance
#16 (page 196)
#17 (page 197)
14 Slide
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
The discrete uniform probability distributionis the
simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.
The discrete uniform probability function is
f(x) =1/ n
where:
n=the number of values the random
variable may assume
the values of the
random variable
are equally likely
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discrete dist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
8
15 Slide
Binomial Distribution
n Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does
not change from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible
on each trial.
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.
stationarity
assumption
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
16 Slide
Binomial Distribution
Our interest is in the number of successes
occurring in the n trials.
We let x denote the number of successes
occurring in the n trials.
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
9
17 Slide
where:
f(x) =the probability of xsuccesses in ntrials
n=the number of trials
p=the probability of success on any one trial

=


=

( )
( )
( ) (1 )
!
(1 )
!( )!
n x x
n x x
n
f x p p
x
n
p p
x n x

=


=

( )
( )
( ) (1 )
!
(1 )
!( )!
n x x
n x x
n
f x p p
x
n
p p
x n x
Binomial Distribution
n Binomial Probability Function
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
18 Slide
( )
!
( ) (1 )
!( )!
x n x
n
f x p p
x n x

=

( )
!
( ) (1 )
!( )!
x n x
n
f x p p
x n x

=

Binomial Distribution
!
!( )!
n
x n x
!
!( )!
n
x n x
( )
(1 )
x n x
p p

( )
(1 )
x n x
p p

n Binomial Probability Function

Probability of a particular
sequence of trial outcomes
with x successes in ntrials
Number of experimental
outcomes providing exactly
xsuccesses in ntrials
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
10
19 Slide
Example: Evans Electronics
Evans is concerned about a low retention rate for
employees. In recent years, management has seen a
turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually.
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability of 0.1 that the
person will not be with the company next year.
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
20 Slide
n Using the Binomial Probability Function
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is
the probability that 1 of them will leave the company
this year?
f x
n
x n x
p p
x n x
( )
!
!( )!
( )
( )
=

1 f x
n
x n x
p p
x n x
( )
!
!( )!
( )
( )
=

1
1 2
3!
(1) (0.1) (0.9) 3(.1)(.81) .243
1!(3 1)!
f = = =

1 2
3!
(1) (0.1) (0.9) 3(.1)(.81) .243
1!(3 1)!
f = = =

Let: p=.10, n=3, x=1

L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
Example: Evans Electronics
11
21 Slide
n Tree Diagram
1
st
Worker 2
nd
Worker 3
rd
Worker x Prob.
Leaves
(.1)
Stays
(.9)
3
2
0
2
2
Leaves (.1)
Leaves (.1)
S (.9)
Stays (.9)
Stays (.9)
S (.9)
S (.9)
S (.9)
L (.1)
L (.1)
L (.1)
L (.1) .0010
.0090
.0090
.7290
.0090
1
1
.0810
.0810
.0810
1
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
Example: Evans Electronics
22 Slide
n Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
p
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
Example: Evans Electronics
12
23 Slide
Binomial Distribution
(1 ) np p = (1 ) np p =
E(x) = =np
Var(x) =
2
=np(1 p)
n Expected Value
n Variance
n Standard Deviation
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
24 Slide
3(.1)(.9) .52 employees = = 3(.1)(.9) .52 employees = =
E(x) = =3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3
Var(x) =
2
=3(.1)(.9) = .27
n Expected Value
n Variance
n Standard Deviation
Example: Evans Electronics
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
13
25 Slide
In-class Exercise
n #26 (page 207)
n #37 (page 208)
26 Slide
A Poisson distributed random variable is often
useful in estimating the number of occurrences
over a specified interval of time or space
It is a discrete random variable that may assume
an infinite sequence of values (x =0, 1, 2, . . . ).
Poisson Distribution
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
14
27 Slide
Examples of a Poisson distributed random variable:
the number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of
pine board
the number of vehicles arriving at a
toll booth in one hour
Poisson Distribution
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
28 Slide
Poisson Distribution
n Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment
2. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any
interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.
1. The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
15
29 Slide
n Poisson Probability Function
Poisson Distribution
f x
e
x
x
( )
!
=

f x
e
x
x
( )
!
=

where:
f(x) =probability of xoccurrences in an interval
=mean number of occurrences in an interval
e=2.71828
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
30 Slide
Example: Mercy Hospital
MERCY
Patients arrive at the
emergency room of Mercy
Hospital at the average
rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings.
What is the
probability of 4 arrivals in
30 minutes on a weekend evening?
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
16
31 Slide
n Using the Poisson Probability Function
4 3
3 (2.71828)
(4) .1680
4!
f

= =
4 3
3 (2.71828)
(4) .1680
4!
f

= =
MERCY
=6/ hour =3/ half-hour, x=4
Example: Mercy Hospital
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
32 Slide
n Using Poisson Probability Tables

x 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
0 .1225 .1108 .1003 .0907 .0821 .0743 .0672 .0608 .0550 .0498
1 .2572 .2438 .2306 .2177 .2052 .1931 .1815 .1703 .1596 .1494
2 .2700 .2681 .2652 .2613 .2565 .2510 .2450 .2384 .2314 .2240
3 .1890 .1966 .2033 .2090 .2138 .2176 .2205 .2225 .2237 .2240
4 .0992 .1082 .1169 .1254 .1336 .1414 .1488 .1557 .1622 .1680
5 .0417 .0476 .0538 .0602 ..0668 .0735 .0804 .0872 .0940 .1008
6 .0146 .0174 .0206 .0241 .0278 .0319 .0362 .0407 .0455 .0504
7 .0044 .0055 .0068 .0083 .0099 .0118 .0139 .0163 .0188 .0216
8 .0011 .0015 .0019 .0025 .0031 .0038 .0047 .0057 .0068 .0081
MERCY
Example: Mercy Hospital
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
17
33 Slide
n Poisson Distribution of Arrivals
MERCY
Poisson Probabilities
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
actually,
the sequence
continues:
11, 12, !
Example: Mercy Hospital
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
34 Slide
Poisson Distribution
A property of the Poisson distribution is that
the mean and variance are equal.
=
2
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
18
35 Slide
MERCY
n Variance for Number of Arrivals
During 30-Minute Periods
=
2
=3
L.O.
Random variables
EV and Variance
Uniform discretedist.
Binomial dist.
Poisson dist.
Example: Mercy Hospital
36 Slide
In-class Exercise
n #38 (page 211)
n #41 (page 212)
19
37 Slide
End of Chapter 5