What is the exact scoreline going to be for the next match?

This is the intriguing question pondered

over every day by tens of thousands of bettors and traders, swarming all over the Correct Score
markets offered by internet bookmakers and betting exchanges, all trying to find a winning system
!nfortunately, it"s also one of the most difficult answers to get completely right #n the
betting$trading world, there are many people who are able to assess a game and determine, with
some degree of accuracy, who will win a particular match %or fail to win& ' but the ability to
correctly guess the final score of a match has proven a much trickier proposition, even when a sea
of algorithms and mathematics are applied to it
The real beauty of this market, however, is that you don"t always need to be exactly right (ou can
be )roughly* right and still make a profit+ you can use )ranges* or you can even try to avoid the
correct score and still make money , trader can also turn around a losing position within the
Correct Score market as it offers such a wealth of permutations ,nd it"s this ama-ing flexibility
that makes the Correct Score market possibly the single most popular one for generating ideas and
strategies #t"s a market with the most effort, most tactics and most convoluted methods applied to it
in an attempt to come up with a winning and profitable system ,fterall, with ./ scorelines to back
and ./ to lay0, the possibilities of con1uring up a fiendish and cunningly2devised system are
endless, aren3t they?
Today #"ll look at some of these common and popular strategies for playing this market, and try to
ob1ectively assess the merits, or otherwise, of each strategy 4efore # do that, it3s probably a good
idea to be aware of how the odds move within each scoreline throughout a match 5ow obviously
this can vary considerably depending on the particular merits of each team playing, but #"ll look at a
couple to give you an idea of movement6
Odds Movements:
Very Strong Home Favourite:
#f we have a game involving a strong favourite at home %say ,rsenal at home the other night, who
were on offer at .77&, then generally while no goals are scored, 828, 82., .28 and 928 will all begin
to move in from kick2off The 728 scoreline may also move in a little, depending on the amount of
action within the game The .2., 92. and .29 scorelines should remain relatively static, whilst all the
others will steadily go out 2 some quicker than others
#f there are still no goals by :8 minutes, then 928 will start to move out, although .2. should still
hold relatively stable The 828, .28 and 82. scores will continue to come in 4y ;8 minutes, the .2.
will start to move out, and ten minutes later, the .28 and 82. will also reverse their trends and start
back out The 828 scoreline of course continues to come in
#f the strong home side score in the first .; minutes of the match, then .28 will go out slightly %as
further goals are expected&, 928 and 728 and ,! will shorten, 92. will stay static, while .29 will fly
out #f the away side score first inside .; minutes, then 82. shortens dramatically, as does 829, 92.
and .2. The 72. scoreline also shortens somewhat, whilst ,! doesn3t move a great deal
Evenly-matched sides:
<et3s look at the same scenarios for evenly2matched teams The 828, .28 and 82. scorelines will
move in, as usual The .2. score will remain largely static, as will 928 and 829 %maybe some slight
shifts either way&, but the 92. and .29 scorelines will head out ,round the 7827; minute mark, 928
and 829 will begin moving out .2. will also start moving away, but at a slower pace #f the home
side score inside .; minutes, then .28 will shorten, as will .2., 928, 92. and 929 .29 will lengthen
slightly ,! will shorten #f the away side score first, the reversible scorelines shorten %829, .29&
=kay, so knowing generally how the odds move, let3s now look at some of the most popular
strategies !nfortunately, despite their multitude, there are no methods or strategies %that # know of&
that can guarantee a profit each and every time Some are high risk, and some provide a hedged
level of safety, but all can win and all can lose, depending on the situation
Strategies:
Laying 0-0:
# suppose we had better get this one out of the way first #t"s not much of a strategy, but this
infamous bet has attracted the same kind of attention and notoriety as its >atch =dds brother, <ay
The ?raw #t3s certainly the most well2known, and probably the most commonly2struck bet of any
kind in the Correct Score market #t also seems to be heralded and derided in equal measure, often
dividing opinion amongst the betting community
The reason it3s so popular is that it3s quick, easy and 2 enticingly 2 feels like it could be the road to
easy riches ,s we all know, football matches are all about goals, so guessing$betting that at least
one goal will be scored is surely a good idea? Well, perhaps The most obvious problem of course
is what happens when no goals are forthcoming6 the bettor then faces a total wipe2out of their stake,
leveraged to ensure an extremely hefty loss
@urthermore, it should be borne in mind that the given odds for any particular match will generally
be an accurate reflection of that scoreline being achieved 4etfair markets are notoriously efficient,
so it"s probably not a good idea 1ust to say to yourself, )=oh, # can lay this at As #"ll have some of
that*, because you"ve made no evaluation of whether this constitutes value or not
<ay the 828 scoreline in the @rench second division %<ique 9& and the odds can be as low as / or B
<ay the same scoreline in a match involving 4arcelona at home, and you can often be looking at lay
odds of 9; to 78 Which one is value? Crobably neither The question then is, would you be willing
to risk D9,;88 or more 1ust to win D.88? # certainly wouldn3t, but the answer of course is that some
people are
So, blind laying of the 828 will almost certainly lead to the poor2house, but could there be any
situations where this can actually be a EgoodE bet? Well, the answer is yes, of course there are @or
example, let"s suppose you have a match where the starting odds quickly decay after kick2off 4ut
then the home team start playing magnificently, hammering the away side into submission, hitting
the woodwork and getting involved in a rush of goalmouth melees Well you may feel that laying 82
8 under those circumstances is a decent option ,nd # might tend to agree with you #n the past #
have personally layed 828 when this kind of scenario is playing out, and #3m sure # will do so again
in the future 4ut either way ' and be under no illusions here 2 this is straight betting and 5=T
trading, and the risk already outlined above will always be there
The Assessed Lay o 0-0:
Cerhaps not much better than the blind version of this bet, but by analysing the stats to see who
starts games slowly, who scores for fun in the second2half of games and who concedes easily as
their fitness begins to falter 2 all these kind of things can only help to improve your hit2rate when
laying 828 (ou could also use Coisson to calculate the percentage chances of each scoreline being
achieved #f you do utilise pure Coisson, you should ensure that you increase the probability of 828
and .2., and reduce the probability of a .28 home win and a 82. away win This is because the
Coisson model is known to under forecast 828 and .2. draws and over forecast .28 and 82. There
are also other well2known algorithms that you could use to calculate the goal expectation and,
again, these would all help you to make a more reasoned selection for you to lay 828
The Time-limited Lay o 0-0:
Some people believe that, whilst there may be no real value in a straight lay of the 828 scoreline,
there might 1ust be some value for a limited duration ?ifferent periods of a match have different
likelihoods of goals being scored, so directing a lay towards those periods could prove profitable
The idea here is to set a maximum liability for all bets of this type, and then to place a lay of 828
someway through the match, starting at the optimal time for goals to be scored This lay stays in
place until the defined liability is reached, at which point the bet is reddened2up #f a goal is scored
whilst the lay is in place then obviously the bet is won
This bet is favoured by some due to its targeted nature and for its defined liability, managing risk a
little more wisely than a straight lay of 828
Other Time-related !ets:
Clacing bets within the Correct Score for a defined period of time is not only restricted to the 828
scoreline @or closely2matched sides or when the goal expectation is low, another common approach
is to back the 828, .28 and 82. scorelines When in2play, the odds for all these scorelines will
shorten, providing a trader with an opportunity to green2up after fifteen or twenty minutes Some
traders even wait until half2time before greening2up ,n early goal will of course blow two parts of
this bet out of the water, leaving the trader with a red position, but this will be dramatically less than
any lay of 828
"ac#ing 0-0:
#f you back 828 %perhaps using the scalping techniques detailed below& and lay off the same amount
a few ticks later, this can provide you with a free bet on this scoreline @rom this advantageous
position, you then have a few options (ou can either leave it there and hope for the game to finish
828, you can watch the odds drop further, allowing you to green2up a reasonable figure across all
scorelines, or you could wait for the odds on 828 to drop further and then lay that scoreline using
only the green you have on 828 as your risk ,dditionally, this could be used as insurance in an in2
play trade of other scorelines
This technique can also be used pre2match for a considerably lower risk #f it is felt the 828 scoreline
odds are too large, then this can be backed with the hope that it will steam before the start of the
match #ndeed this is a very popular strategy not 1ust for the 828 scoreline but for several scorelines
Sometimes a goal fest is forecast and the high scorelines can get overpriced, but as the match draws
closer, a more reasoned view is taken which can cause all these larger scorelines to shorten ,gain,
the trader can either green2up across all scorelines or use the green they have on a particular score to
use in2play
$utching:
This is backing all scorelines that are most likely to happen for an even profit #f, for example, the
market is expecting a home win in a game with two goals or less, then a ?utch of 828, .28, 82., 928
and 92. may be struck, ensuring the same profit whichever one of these scorelines the game finishes
on The advantage of this bet is that you cover a lot of ground, but the disadvantage is that the more
ground you cover %the larger the percentage of the book&, then the greater the risk2to2reward ratio
becomes (ou should also be careful about backing too many scorelines, as an =vers or !nders bet
could prove to be better value
?utching can be used in a thousand ways, using any selection of scorelines that you want Trial2
and2error is the best way forward using the information on odds movements that #3ve already
provided , home win with a high goal expectation? Then you could ?utch 928, 92., 728, 72. and
,! <ooking for a trade at a later date? 4ack 828 %as an insurance bet only&, along with .2., 92. and
.29 When the market moves out further, also back 929 These are basic examples, but come up with
your own if you can
@or some, dutching is a staple Correct Score bet #t also has the advantage that you can trade2out of
it after a defined period of time or the bet can be left to run
"oo#ma#ing:
The opposite of the above strategy, here we effectively ?utch lay those scorelines we feel least
likely to occur Taking the same match profile as 1ust mentioned, we would bookmake the 829, 827,
.27, 929, 927, 729, 727 and ,ny !nquoted scorelines #f the match finishes with any scoreline other
than these, then the bet is won This has the same advantages and disadvantages as mentioned in the
dutching strategy <ike the dutching strategy, the bet can also be traded2out early if required
The Trac#er:
5o, this is nothing to do with mortgages, but more to do with tracking the current score and the two
next possible scores along With the average number of goals scored around 9;, this strategy is
often utilised after two goals are scored ,t that point the current score and the next two possible
scores along are backed Freening2up or selecting additional scorelines is then a matter of reacting
to events within the match 2 which of course means the match should be watched whilst trading
The Home %in &redictor:
With ten or fifteen minutes remaining in the match, the match is drawn or the home team has a goal
advantage The away team has it"s back to the wall as the home team continually surge forward,
seeking another goal (ou can see that either the away team will hold2out or the home team will
pinch a late goal =kay, so dutch the current score and the next home win scoreline ' but weight the
current scoreline so that you have a scratched position should there be no further goals
The obvious risk here is when, against the run of play %and how many times have we heard that
phrase?&, the away team run up the other end and score a surprise goal !nder those circumstances
you would have a full loss of stake
The '-' Trade:
What if the strong favourite playing at home go a goal behind early in the game? What should we
do? What happens to the odds when this happens? ,fter the !nsuspend, the current scoreline will
settle where the 828 was before the goal, and gradually begin decaying in the same manner <aying
this is essentially the same as laying 828 at that point 4ut what about .2.? What happens to that?
Well, the market strongly fancies an equaliser, so .2. will begin decreasing nicely in price This
provides an opportunity to trade with less risk than the lay of 828 4acking .2. ' especially if the
home side are attacking ' causes a decent drop in price, allowing you to lay it off later #f the home
side do equalise and you have an open position in the market, then this will lead to even greater
profits The risk here is a second goal from the underdog, but you can either live with this risk or
else place a small covering bet on the away team3s next score
The (-0 Scal):
, popular strategy With a home favourite, this is a reasonably safe%ish& way to scalp the Correct
Score market @rom kick2off, this price will start to come in, so backing first and laying off a few
ticks later should yield decent profits whilst also offering a greater possibility of having an open
position when$if the home team score This will then lead to greater profits The risk is the same as
many of these strategies6 namely if the away team should score first #f you have an open position
during such an event then you3ll suffer a full loss Scalping however is about getting into the market
at the right time %ie when the away team do not have the ball&
The *urrent Score Scal):
4ank Gealth WarningH Scalping in this way tracks the current score, with the idea being to take a
few ticks here and there The importance of this type of trading is to have an open position in the
match for as short a time as possible %or for as long a time as possible when there is no risk but the
odds are still falling& The no risk periods are shots ballooned over the bar, substitutions and
in1uries The difficulty arises when you open a position and find yourself unable to close it properly
due to sudden action ,s 1ust mentioned, this is high2risk trading and should be confronted with a
large measure of caution
"oo# *om)letion:
,nother common strategy 4etfair Correct Score markets are generally 9I above %for backs& or 9I
below %for lays& a .88I book This is the overround, which is much greater on the high street
bookermakers To complete a profitable book you either need to back all the selections under .88I
or lay them all over .88I Some people back those scorelines that will inevitably steam once the
match gets underway, and then back the remaining ones that should drift at higher odds than are
currently available #n other words, they put an offer in for those driftable scores and wait for their
scores to get matched This should be done without using the Ekeep betsE option because, if a goal is
scored before being matched on all scorelines, then it would not advisable to leave money in place
for scorelines that cannot ever occur #f all selections are eventually matched, however, then you
will have completed your book at less than .88I for a guaranteed profit
The Alternative:
, selection of correct scores can also be satisfactorily used to replace another market entirely that
you were originally intending to back or lay, only with %hopefully& greater value <et"s say that you
have assessed a match as a low2scoring home win and you want to back !nder 9; goals+ well this
could perhaps be replaced by backing %dutching& 828, .2., .28 and 928 instead 4y leaving the out
the 82. and 829 scorelines from the equation, you are of course increasing your risk but you are also
potentially increasing your profit using a 1udgement on the shape the game may take
&ic#-+,-Mi-:
The Correct Score market can also be used in con1unction with other markets 4acking or laying a
correct score %or several correct scores& also effectively negates the possibility of some other event
occurring in other markets, which could be used to your advantage !sing this pick2Jn2mix
approach, it"s possible to work2out a comfortably hedged position So what do # mean by this?
Well, if you back the .28 scoreline on the @ull2time Correct Score market, then you are also
effectively saying that %as an example& a Galf2time Correct Score of 829 will not occur The two are
mutually exclusive (ou may not actually be thinking this precise thing when making your bet, but
if your bet wins then the Galf2time 829 has to fail ,s it happens %in this particular instance& the
reverse is also true
#f you back the @ull2time Correct Score of 92., then backing Gome Win24oth2Galves absolutely
cannot succeed %as any Win24oth2Galves bet can only succeed if the winning margin is two goals or
greater& =r if you back the @ull2time Correct Score of .2. then you have, in essence, also bet
against %but not actually bet against& a Galf2time$@ull2time back of Gome$Gome
!sing this logic, we can then think of a Correct Score bet as a kind of )soft backing or laying* of
selections in another market 2 and these may be useful to you @or example, the three most common
results in the Galf2time$@ull2time market are Gome$Gome, ?raw$Gome and ,way$,way #f you are
interested in dutching these three by all means do so, but you could also consider backing the first
two along with 82., 829 and .29 instead Could this lead to greater profits? (ou3ll have to work that
out for yourself, but either way you can see how certain scorelines can EreplaceE or cover selections
in other markets
These pick2Jn2mixing of different markets to build2up a position can be extremely powerful if given
a bit of thought >any of your ideas here will ultimately be negated by the powerful accuracy and
efficiency of the markets, and by the countless bots out there scouring the markets to close2up
profitable positionsK 4ut if you"re creative and able to look at these cross2market opportunities
using an abstract perspective, then there may yet still be opportunities waiting to be taken advantage
of #t"s 1ust up to you to find them
Summary:
Well, # suppose that3s about it # could go on with countless other strategies, but #3m getting bored
now %as #"m sure you are& and you get the point anyway The main issue here is that the Correct
Score market has huge potential, and for every strategy that you can come up with for a single
scoreline, there are a do-en others waiting to be considered So the message must be to take some
time and carefully consider all the options available to you #t3s a fabulous market to get involved
with and can provide a good degree of satisfaction if you can master it, or con1ure up a winning
strategy
Food luck to all of you
0There is of course usually a )Correct Score 9* market also
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!pdate6
?ave from http6$$soccercompoundingblogspotcom$ has kindly provided these additional ideas for
the Correct Score market These both look like good ideas to me Thanks ?ave6
.& =n high liquidity matches 828 usually stays 1ust about static for .8 or maybe even .; minutes
This gives two opportunities firstly for a relatively cost free lay of that score to catch the early goal
that makes a mess of so many carefully crafted CS trades Secondly, if you can get the timing right,
1ump on 828 as the last of the early layers are exiting and ride the market down as the price falls off
the metaphorical cliff Wealth warning with that one, of courseH
9& <ay .2. 1ust before half time if match is scoreless 2 as you say it starts drifting at about ;8 mins 2
so a time limited trade on that market is quite profitable and where a goal doesn3t necessarily bring
disasterH