Sie sind auf Seite 1von 45

ther Analytics

Weekly Technical Conspectus


publ i sh date : 8/8/2014
Author : Alex Bernal, CMT
alex@aetheranalytics.com
805.252.7161
DISCLAIMER

The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such
information is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake
to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or
otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment
decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are
denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment
is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice
and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other
participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.

No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees,
representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation,
trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.



Report Details
Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.
Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening
If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email
alex@aetheranalytics. Com
User Guide Download Link > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf


Table of Contents
Section 1 : Quick Glance Table Summary
Section 2 : Currencies Section 3 : Energy Complex Section 7 : Grains & Softs
No Longer Offered WTI CRUDE Corn
In Free Version Brent Crude Soybeans
Natural Gas Soybean Oil
Section 4 : Interest Rates Oats
10 Year Treasury Note Wheat
30 Year Treasury Bond Coffee
Ultra Bond Sugar
Section 5 : Indices Cotton
S&P 500 Cocoa
Nasdaq 100 Section 10 : Sample Portfolio Tracking
Russell 2000 Section 11 : Appendix
DJIA
VIX (VXX / VXZ)
Nikkei
Shanghai
Heng Seng
Jakarta
Section 6 : Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Time Frame Recommended Entry
Price
Current Stops Targets Quick Note
AUDCAD Daily Successful Bearish HarmonicWeekly Scale
AUDJPY Daily
AUDNZD Bullish Cypher
AUDUSD Daily Bearish Bat
CADJPY Low pattern Rank Bearish Butterfly / Crab. Confirmed Reversal
EURAUD Daily Buy Stop Entry 1.466 1.4260 & 1.4152 1.52 & 1.56 Bullish Reversal imminent
EURCAD Daily Entry Triggered 1.4538 & 1.4449 1.52 Trade Is Live 8/9/2014
EURGBP Daily Weekly Bullish Batsmall trade suggested
EURJPY Daily Entry Triggered 140.00 137.42 134 Trade is Live Triangle Breakout (covered 1/2 @ 137.60)
EURNZD Weekly Entry Triggered 1.58 1.5244 Trade is Live 8/1/2014
EURTRY Possible Bullish Bat @ 2.75. No trade suggestions currently
EURUSD Weekly Entry Triggered 1.367 1/2 @ 1.3671 @ 1.3932 1.24 Trade is Live
GBPAUD
GBPCAD Possible complex head and shoulders top pattern
GBPJPY Low Ranking Bearish Butterfly
GBPNZD Low Rank Bearish Gartely
HKDJPY Weekly Continuation Triangles
NZDJPY Weekly Entry Triggered 0.86 1/2 @ 90 1/2 @ 92.31 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave Entry triggered 5/29/2014
NZDUSD Daily Bearish Butterfly
USDCAD Daily Entry Triggered 1.07 1/2 @ 1.0819, 1/2 @ 1.077 1.11 Trade Is Live
Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Time Frame Recommended Entry
Price
Current Stop Targets Quick Note
USDJPY
USDMXN
USDSGD Daily Entry triggered 1.246 1.2452 & 1.2416 1.2750 Trade is live 8/1/2014
WTI CRUDE
BRENT CRUDE (stopped out 103.13) Aug 8
Nat Gas Extended Shark
RBOB Gasoline Daily Entry Triggered 2.99 2.8414 2.70, 2.30 Trade is Live (1/2 covred at 2.70)
Heating Oil No tradable patterns.
10 YEAR NOTE Daily Buy stop @ 127.00 Potential H&S Bottom
30 YEAR BOND Weekly Entry Triggered 135.16 1/2 @ 132.30, 1/2 @ 137.71 142.16 Trade is Live
SP500 Small Scale Wolfe Wave
NASDAQ 100 Daily Entry Triggered 3927 All @ 3927 3750 &3550 Trade is live 7/30/2014
RUSSELL 2000 Daily Buy stop @ 1135 1083.6 & 1069.9 1220 Bullish Cypher
DJIA Bullish SharkNo Trade Recommended
VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.
NIKKEI Potential bearish Bat-Crab
SHANG HAI INDEX Daily Potential Bearish crab
Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Time Frame Recommended Entry
Price
Current Stop Targets Quick Note
HENG SENG Daily Sell stop entry 24176 25245 23000 & 21000 Bearish Butterfly
JAKARTA Weekly Entry Triggered 4848 5200 4000 Trade is Live
BOMBAY SENSEX
US Dollar Index Daily Entry Triggered 80.55 81.16 & 80.827 82 & 84 Trade is Live
GOLD Weekly Buy stop entry 1400 1/2 @ 1196.3, 1/2 @ 1153 1650 Weekly Possible bullish reverse head and shoulders
SILVER Daily Trade is Live (1/2 stopped out at 20.75) (1/2 stopped at 20.375)
Platinum Daily Low rank bearish butterfly missed
Palladium Low rank bearish bat crab
Copper Daily Entry Triggered 3.16 3.30 & 3.26 2.93 Possible Bearish Gartley
Corn Weekly Shark Support
Soybeans Weekly Daily Entry Triggered 1440 1/2 @ 1134 1050 Trade is Live (7/11 1/2 profits taken at 1231.50)
Soybean Oil Near Wave 5 Symmetry Balance Point
Oats Gar Fly on Daily
Wheat
Coffee Low Pattern Rank Alt Bat
Sugar No tradable patterns.
Cotton No tradable patterns.
Cocoa Trade is Live Bearish Crab Pattern (1/2 stopped at 3085) 1/2 stopped at 3200)
Energy
WTI Crude Weekly we missed this trade
RBOB Gasoline Three Drive to a Top & Bearish Gartley. Sell stops @ 2.997 Targets are 2.70 & 2.65.
Natural Gas Extended Bullish Shark
Interest Rates
US 10 Year Treasury NotePotential Head and Shoulders Bottom
US 30 Year Treasury BondWeekly Trade is Live. Buy stop for a long entry was triggered on 5/1/2014. Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout.
US 30 Year Treasury BondDaily Trade is Live. Buy stop for a long entry was triggered on 5/1/2014. Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Stops are at
133.61& 130.83. Possible target measured move is 143.
Indices
Nasdaq Futures Trade is live. Entry Triggered 3927, stops @ 3979 & 3943. Targets 3750 & 3550
SP500 Futures
Russell 2000 Futures Bullish trade setup
Dow 30 Futures Low Rank Bearish Butterfly now potential shark support
NikkeiIn between bearish bat / crab no trade suggested
Shanghai A SharesIn between bearish bat / crab no trade suggested
Hong Kong HSI Bearish ButterflySell stop entry recommended 24176 if filled stops at 25245 with targets 23000 & 21000
Hong Kong HSI Bearish ButterflySell stop entry recommended 24176 if filled stops at 25245 with targets 23000 & 21000
Jakarta IndexUpdate : Trade is Live. High ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry inside the X and C legs. This indicates there is some well behaved
wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150 bigger position size than normal. Stops at 5300 & 5136. Target is 4000
Metals
DXY US Dollar Index Daily Trade is Live Bullish 5-0 Pattern tightened stops
Gold Weekly Possible bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern off of the Major harmonic support level zone. If neck line is breached at 1400 a small buy stop to
entry for long trade is recommended with stops at 1196 and 1153 respectively. Minimum measured move target would be 1650.
Gold Daily possible bullish 5-0
PalladiumWeekly
Copper Daily Bearish Gartley Weekly & Daily Short Filled 3.16 suggested, if filled stops @ 3.30 with targets of 2.95 at a minimum. Possibly switching to weekly
timeframe if trade comes to fruition with high velocity.
Grains & Softs
Soybeans Weekly/daily. Entry Triggered 1440 7/11/2014 1/2 profits taked at 1231.50 .Stops at 1152 for remaining position, Targets 1050 still in play.
Soybeans Oil
Corn Weekly
Cocoa Weekly
Portfolio Tracking
Sample Portfolio Tracking
In the effort to help our subscribers learn how to effectively manage a forex, futures & Stock portfolio we have build a sample portfolio tracking log that utilizes a
base $10,000,000.00 NAV starting balance and trades all pips, points and ticks gained or lost. In efforts to simplify this l og we will not include commissions or broker
fees since these will vary from subscriber to subscriber. This is in no way meant to be representative of actual capital being managed but solely for educational pur-
poses to show the subscriber how we are performing with our trade suggestions and risk management. We will strive to keep the most accurate trading perfor-
mance statistics possible and also keep our log simplified and transparent.
-
Forex : We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 10 Mini forex lots for all FX trades unless noted otherwise.
(10,000 units of quote currency)
Futures: We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 1 standard futures contract for all futures trades unless noted otherwise.

Equities : %200 NAV of portfolio will be the base multiplier for share size. (rounded up to nearest whole)

Subscribers are responsible for calculating there own optimal position sizes in accordance to there own individual risk tolerances.

The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such infor-
mation is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake to
advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or other-
wise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment de-
cisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are de-
nominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is
not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice
and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other
participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.

No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, repre-
sentatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading
losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.
Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L
EURNZD 4/11/2014 Long 1.605 1.58 1.570 5/6/2014 avg (1.575) - 0.03
NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Short 0.8635 0.88 0.89 5/6/2014 avg (0.876) -0.125
AUDJPY 4/15/2014 Short 95.00 95.72 5/14/2014 Avg (95.72) -0.72
AUDUSD 4/17/2014 Short 0.9325 0.910 0.88 5/3/2014 0.93875 -0.00625
EURAUD 4/23/2014 Long 1.488 1.45 5/6/2014 1.445 -0.043
GBPNZD 4/16/2014 Long 1.953 1.93 5/6, 5/15 Avg 1.936 -0.017
WTI Crude 4/22/2014 Short 102.58 102.58 104 5/1, 5/14 1/2 @ 99.00
1/2 @ 102.58
+3.58, +0.0
Shanghai 4/22/2014 Short 2185 2171 2146 5/29 1/2 @2144 +28.41
AUDCAD 4/29/2014 Short 1.01 1.015 1.0123 6/4/2014 Avg 1.0192 -0.0092
30 Year 5/1/2014 Long 135.16 132.30 137.71
EURJPY 5/9/2014 Short 140 137.42 7/30/2017 1/2 @ 137.60 +2.400
10 Year 5/9/2014 Long 125.05 125.58 125.37 6/4 1/2 @ 125.37 0.295 +
Palladium 5/7/2014 Short 800 844.28 832.54 5/21/2014 Avg 837.06 -30.13
Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page
* Shaded row denotes closed trade
Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L
Wheat 5/12/2014 Short 722.25 568 5/23/2014
6/13/2014
655.25 (1/2)
585.75 (1/4)
548.75 (1/4)
+67.00
+ 136.50
+ 173.50
Cocoa 5/9/2014 Short 2866 6/4
7/30
1/2 @ 3074
1/2 @ 3200
-208
-344
NZDJPY 5/29/2014 Short 0.86 90 92.31
Russell 2000 5/28/2014 Long 1140 1/2 @ 1185
1/2 @ 1700
+45
+30
Platinum 5/28/2014 Short 1466 6/4
6/24
1/2 @ 1423
1/2 @ 1473
+43
-7
Copper 5/30/2014 Short 3.13 6/20
6/23
1/2 @ 3.10
1/2 @ 3.1511
+.03
-.0211
EURUSD 5/15/2014 Short 1.3665 1.3671 1.3932
WTI Crude 6/12/2014 Long 105.23 103.95 104.32 7/2 1/2 @ 104.48
1/2 @ 103.30
-0.75
-1.93
Brent Crude 6/12/2014 Long 113.07 103.13 103.13 -10.06
Soybeans 6/12/2014 Short 1440 1134 1/2 @ 1231.50 +208.50
Soybean Oil 6/13/2014 Long 39.50 39.49 38.80 6/30 1/2 @ 39.48
1/2 @ 38.86
-0.02
-0.64
Jakarta 6/24 Short 4848 5200
USDCAD 7/11 Long 1.07 1.0819 1.077
Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page
Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L
RBOB 7/10/2014 Short 2.99 3.14 2.99 1/2 @ 1.270 1.72

Silver 6/19/2014 Long 20.00 20.75 7/15/2014 1/2 @ 20.33
1/2 @ 20.375
+0.33
+0.375
DXY 7/16/2014 Long 80.55 81.16 80.827
USDSGD 8/1/2014 Long 1.246 1.2452 1.2416
NQ 8/30/2014 Short 3927 3927
EURCAD 8/9/2014 Long 1.4688 1.4538 1.4449
Copper 8/8/2014 Short 3.16 3.30 3.26






Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page
Sample Portfolio Performance
Performance Table
* Portfolio Performance is calculated only from closed trades
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Jan
2014 0.0% - 6.20% 59.38% 3.132 54.18%
2015
Risk Return Profile

Starting NAV
10MM
Performance YTD
54.18%
Performance since inception
54.18%
Max Draw Down
21.70%
Monthly Annual Compound Return
12.73%
Sharpe since inception
0.4623
Profit Factor
2.500
Appendix
Methodology & Strategy
Harmonic any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.

The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number. - J.M. Hurst

Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to
find specific geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry
elliott waves in the tradition of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that
we have studied and thoroughly tested from each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry
and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We dont believe in the
subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5 and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In
essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures. Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then
investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or
forecasted.

Common Newsletter Nomenclature
Pattern RankOur proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment
(longer term waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.

PRZPotential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern

Pattern NamesBAT, BUTTERFLY, GARTLEY, GARFLY, CYPHER, SHARK, ALT BAT, CRAB, DEEP CRAB These labels refer to specific harmonic 5 point fractal structures
that appear in the markets. Please refer to the USER GUIDE here > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf or full specifics and details
for each pattern

Detrended OscillatorOne of the only 2 indicators we will refer to in our charts is the Detrended Oscillator this is a proprietary calculation and is very similar to
RVALUE indicator laid out by Mark W. Helweg & David C. Stendahl in there book Dynamic Trading Indicators. We have found this to be a great tool in analyzing the
over extending to the up and downside of a markets normal behavior. It is also very useful for finding divergence point between price and momentum.
Appendix
These standing wave patterns represent the lowest energy vibrational modes of the object or complex system. While there are countless way by which an object
can vibrate (each associated with a specific frequency), objects favor only a few specific modes or patterns of vibrating. The favored modes (patterns) of vibration
are those which result in the highest amplitude vibrations with the least input of energy. -AE
Trade Management
We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often util ize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR
14, 2.5) (ATR 21, 3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only
somewhat subject process in our trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point
or minimum targets need to be revised. We always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum
putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take 1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out.
Position Sizing

There are many different ways we suggest utilizing position sizing for your portfolio. For the purpose of this newsletter we will simply suggest our confidence rating in
the context of each trade. When we mention Normal position size this is size that you have determined to be most optimal position size for your specific risk
tolerance and trade management style. We will suggest 1/2 (50%) normal or 3/4 (75%) normal for trades we have slightly less confidence in & 6/4 (150%) or 8/4
(200%) for trades we have more confidence in. This is only a suggestion and should only be considered as opinion or commentary from us for each trade. We never
ever recommend betting the farm or going all in in any trade because it surely leads to ruin. One of our favorite Portfolio position sizing formulas that we
recommend is the following:

Percent Volatility Sizing -{ Position Size = (CE * %PE) / SV }- Where CE is the current account equity (NAV of portfolio, %PE is percentage of portfolio equity to
risk per trade (2%, 3% and 4% are recommended), SV is the stocks 14 day ATR






Author Bio

Alex Bernal, CMT
Alex Bernal is a Chartered Market Technician with many years of industry experience in the equity, commodity, currency, interest rate and derivatives markets. Alex
also holds a degree in Economics from the University of Southern California. Alex started his career at the Beverly Hills branch of Bear Stearns & Co. in the wealth
management division. Then in 2007 he moved over to M&N Trading, LLC. where he joined the prop trading desk where he specialized in statistical arbitrage in areas
such as global yield curve spreads and STIR futures. Here he was mentored by Veteran Trader, Anthony Lazzara, who was once the largest 5 year treasuries floor
trader at the Chicago Board of Trade and executed as much as $100 billion in interest rate futures contracts annually. Alex founded Aether Analytics in 2009 with
the intent on providing premier technical analysis research to his clients with a focus only on the methods that have been proven to produce quantifiable edge
through he scientific research process. Aether Analytics deploys an approach that emphasizes on the objective not the subjective and aims to reveal the
repeating market fractal patterns that traders or portfolio manager can utilized to manage risk or speculate for profit.

Alex has also been featured on many prominent news & financial blog networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOE TV, Fxstreet.com, Seeitmarket.com,
Benzinga.com, MTA.org, Yorba Media Radio & First Business News Network.


Contact
aetheranalytics.com
alex@aetheranalytics.com
+1.805.252.7161
Skype : alexbernal0