1

POST WITHDRAWAL SCENARIO IN AFGHANISTAN AND ITS IMPACT

ON PAKISTAN'S SECURITY POLICY
SEMINAR PAPER




SUBMITTEDTO


SUBMITTED BY


Registration number .






School of Politics and International Relations
Quaid-e-AzamUniversity,Islamabad
November, 2013
2

TABLE OF CONTENT
Part-1 Introduction..3
Part-2 History of Afghanistan4
i. British Invasion4
ii. Russian Invasion..5
iii. U.S Invasion..6
Part-3 Post 9/11 Scenario in Afghanistan.7
i. Factors leading to U.S invasion of Afghanistan8
ii. What are Al-Qaeda and Taliban.9
iii. U.N Resolutions Regarding Afghanistan..9
Part-4Impact of Afghanistan on Pakistan's Security Policy..10
i. What is security policy
ii. Pakistan's Security policy
iii. Financial aid to Pakistan
Part-5 Regional Implications of U.S Withdrawal from Afghanistan12
Part-6 Conclusion.14
Bibliography.16





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PART-1
INTRODUCTION
After its invasion on the Afghan land, U.S has announced withdrawing its forces
by the end of the year 2014. After years of forced reforms and development
programs that have not led o much gain, American officials have finally decided a
withdrawal from Afghanistan, a land rightly known as the Graveyard of Empires.
This withdrawal is not as simple as it may sound, it can be traumatic on the
economy of Afghanistan on one hand and may impede larger insecurity risks to the
troops that stay back in Afghanistan for an interim time.
The aftermath of 9/11attacks on the U.S changed the politics not only within
America but the rest of the world face the same political changes in the coming
years. The American decision to strike the hideouts of the alleged A-Qaida and
Taliban in Afghanistan, brought Pakistan on a no-go rad with the only option in
hand being becoming American allies in their war against terror. Facing the
consequences in terms of increased pressure from within the country and its
neighbors on adopting a policy that was not Pakistan's own and increased
insecurity in the country and at the Western and Eastern borders are the
consequences Pakistan had to face, to name a few.
The following questions have been addressed in this paper:
1. What is the effect of withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, post
2014
2. What will be the role of regional powers like Iran and India and the way
forward for Pakistan to balance the influence?
3. How should the security policy of Pakistan be devised for the future?





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PART-2 HISTORY OF AFGHANISTAN
The history of urbanization in Afghanistan can be dated back to 330 B.C upon the arrival of
Alexander the Great and his Macedonian army. Many powerful kingdoms have ruled
Afghanistan since then including Greco-Bactrians, Mauryas, Kushans, Kabul Shahi,
Saffarids, Samanids, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, Timurids, Mughals, Hotakis, Durranis and others.
These Arab invasions infused Arab culture to the soils of Afghanistan and it emerged as a
culturally diverse and rich country producing the likes of Avicenna, Al-Biruni and Rumi.
British Invasion of Afghanistan
Afghanistan has been invaded twice by the British Empire, 1838-42 and 1878-81, the aim
being to deflect Russian invasion and to prevent it from gaining a strong standing in this
strategically significant region.
BRITSH INVASION OF 1842
The people of Afghanistan retaliated to these occupations but the governments were unable
to take the control back and soon surrendered. The British Empire occupied Ghazni,
Jalalabad and Kabul without much effort. to cede the British hegemony, the British Empire
appointed a puppet ruler Shah Shuja. In November, 1842 civilians rose against the
oppression and attacked the British garrison killing thousands of soldiers, the harsh winters
made it even difficult for the British to counterforce the civilian surge. Although the British
captured and killed many civilians but the retaliation was even greater. The British had to
finally withdraw from Afghanistan and go back to their garrisons in India
1
BRITISH INVASION OF 1878
In the start of 1879, the British again tried invading Afghanistan and did so easily as they
faced minimal resistance from the locals, the provinces of Qandahar and Jalalabad soon fell
to the British Empire. The residents of Afghanistan and especially these provinces suffered
the effects of the oppressive British rule and rose against them. The leaders of the provinces
of Herat and Qandahar retaliated with their armies against the British troops. They were not
as successful against the British as were their guerillas at the grass root level. So, both the
insurgences by Britain in Afghanistan had to face the same consequences.
2

1.
Ritscher, Adam, A Brief history of Afghanistan. http://www.afghangovernment.com/briefhistory.htm
2.
Bosin, Yury. Afghanistan, resistance to 19th century British invasion, 2009.

5

Russian Invasion of Afghanistan:
On December 24, 1979, four motorized tank and rifle divisions, made up mostly of Uzbek, Tajik,
and Turkmen soldiers, rolled down the Salang Highway into Kabul, Afghanistan. On December
27, Hafizullah Amin's three-month-old government was overthrown. Amin was executed, and
Babrak Karmal was installed as president. Within a week, Soviet military strength in
Afghanistan reached 100,000 soldiers, nearly balancing the 150,000 in the mujahedeen (freedom
fighters) opposition.
1
Afghanistan had been the first third world country to have received aid from Soviet Union, a
communist country, dating back these ties to 1950s.the relations of Soviets were of a political
nature under the rule of king Zahir Shah. During the interim period, before the arrival of Soviet
military in Afghanistan, the political leadership maintained friendly ties with the Soviets, the
Russian leaders also used to visit Afghanistan to enhance trade ties and keep a note of the
strategic turn overs that might arise. It was not until 1977, that the government under Hafuizulah
Amin's leadership implemented laws that ignited fury in the fundamentalist groups. These
reforms were suggested by Soviet Union and included banning of forced marriages, banning of
polygamy and dowry. Riots broke out throughout the country and when it became impossible for
the government to control these forces, Soviet Union invaded the Afghan soil.
Soviet Union increased and spread its insurgence to the provinces of Kabul, Qandahar and Herat,
bombarding villages and houses, deliberately destroying wheat an crop fields. The people had to
escape their homes and seek refuge in Iran and Pakistan.
Afghanistan had to pay a high price to the Soviet generosity that it had shown in 1950s and
1960s, thereby getting access to the oil and gas resources of the country, and that too at low

1. Afghanistan Invaded by Soviets, December 27, 1979 .
http://www.aasd.k12.wi.us/staff/hermansenjoel/sawar.pdf
2. Ibid


6

Not only did Afghanistan and its people suffered but Soviet Union paid the price in terms of
threatened diplomatic relations with the Western world. The United Nations intervened the
Soviet invasion and the later had to announce the withdrawal of its forces in April 1988. The
Soviet Union left Afghanistan in rambles of destructed houses and devastated internal
structure. The political scenario within the state was also much destabilized and it led to the
uprising of fundamentalist and extremist forces within the country.
Invasion of Afghanistan by U.S.A:
In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States launched
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in order to end the ability of the Taliban regime to
provide safe haven to al Qaeda and to put a stop to al Qaedas use of the territory of
Afghanistan as a base of operations for terrorist activities. In that first phase, a primarily
military effort, U.S. and other coalition forces, working closely with Afghan opposition
forces, quickly removed the Taliban regime.
1
The outcomes of the war in Afghanistan have not been clearly decisive and not much has
been gained from it other than developing a constitution and formation of parliamentary
bodies. The U.S has faced the same threats within Afghanistan as had been faced by past
invaders, the biggest being Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, then are the smaller groups
involved in drug trafficking and smuggling. Then there are tribes and clans that are involved
in disturbances at the smaller, local level. America has faced grave dangers to its security
while its stay in Afghanistan and has faced a downfall in its economy by allocating a big sum
of money to the on-going war in Afghanistan.
The American government has now announced a withdrawal of forced from Afghanistan by
transferring the powers to a promising stakeholder. This withdrawal will have its
consequences in the shorter and the longer term on Afghanistan and Paksitan as well.

1. War in Afghanistan (2001-present)






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PART-3
POST 9/11 SCENARIO IN AFGHANISTAN
Factors leading to Afghan Invasion by U.S
In the mid-1990s, the US government had supported the Taliban with the hope that its military
strength would enable it to unify the country and provide a stable government, which could
protect the pipeline. By the late 1990s, however, the Clinton administration had given up on the
Taliban. When the Bush administration came to power, it decided to give the Taliban one last
chance. During a four-day meeting in Berlin in July 2001, representatives of the Bush
administration insisted that the Taliban must create a government of national unity by sharing
power with factions friendly to the United States. The US representatives reportedly said: Either
you accept our offer of a carpet of gold, or we bury you under a carpet of bombs.
1
In September, 2001 nine armed men who claimed to be belonging to Al-Qaeda hijacked four
U.S planes and attacked twin towers in Washington and Pentagon. Almost 3000 civilians
belonging to every sex,caste and race were brought under the attack. The U.S alleged Taliban in
Afghanistan to have given refuge to Osama bin Laden and if he was not handed over to them,
they would invade Afghanistan. The Taliban asked for a proof and Laden denied responsibility
of the attacks. The U.S brought Afghanistan into attack and many civilians and settlements
suffered the attacks.



1. Quoted in Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasqui, Forbidden Truth: U.S.-Taliban
Secret Oil Diplomacy and the Failed Hunt for Bin Laden (New York: Thunders Mouth
Press/Nation Books, 2002),










8

What are Al-Qaeda and Taliban

Al-Qaeda and Taliban are two names that are not new to many people and even children all over
the world. It is these two groups or clans that have made drastic changes in world politics
especially in south Asia. The origin of al qaeda can be traced to the writings of Sayyid Qutb, an
Islamic thinker. The basic ideology of al qaeda is to establish an Islamic state, with focus on
Sharia. They want to get rid of socialism and nationalism, which they consider as non-Muslim
concepts. The Talibans extremist ideology is only an innovative form of Islam in combination
with Pashtun tribal codes with Deobandi interpretations.While the Taliban are restricted to a
particular region, the al-Qaeda has no boundaries.

U.N resolution on U.S Invasion of Afghanistan
The military campaign in Afghanistan was not specifically mandated by the UN - there was no
specific Security Council Resolution authorizing the invasion - but was widely (although not
universally) perceived to be a legitimate form of self-defense under the UN Charter.
Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the 'threat or use of force against the territorial integrity
or political independence of any state'. The accepted exceptions to this are where a competent
organ of the UN (almost always the Security Council) has authorized it, or where it is in self-
defence under article 51 of the Charter.
1
As required in article 51, the US and the UK reported to the UN on the reasons for invoking the
article to justify their military action. The Taliban Government of Afghanistan was considered an
accomplice to the events of 9/11 and, therefore, a justifiable target for action. United Nations
Security Council Resolutions had already been passed requiring the Taliban to stop giving
sanctuary to al-Qaeda.

1. Smith, Ben and Thorp Arabella ; The Legal Basis for The Invasion of Afghanistan, 26
th
Feb 2010.












9

Targets of U.S in Afghanistan:
While U.S.A attacked Afghanistan, it had the following targets, more to say results that it would
have liked to achieve:
1. Complete destruction of the hideouts of Al-Qaeda and Taliban, so as to increase the
security of America at large and rest of the world in general. For that matter, the U.S
made frequent air strikes before landing its troops inside Afghanistan.
2. Drug trafficking and smuggling have been one of the major issues that governments and
invaders had faced in the past. The U.S wanted to take control of this situation so as to
stop disturbances at the borders.
3. The biggest wealth of the present times in the natural resources of fuel that made many
countries in the past to invade Afghanistan as well. A pipe line project that the U.S
wanted to begin in Afghanistan in 1998 could not begin as there was no internationally
recognized government in Afghanistan. after 2002,,the work on the pipe line started
again.

Outcomes of U.S Attack on Afghanistan
The U.S attacked Afghanistan with a hope to meet some targets, but to this day, nothing
worthwhile has happened. Neither could they control the insurgencies by the militant
groups nor could the start any noticeable programs within the state to uplift the education
and economic standards of the country. The U.S and allies face threats by three types of
groups:
1. Taliban and other insurgent groups like Gulbadin Hikmat Yars group, the Al-Qaeda
faction and Haqqani network.
2. There are groups involved in drug trafficking and smuggling.
3. There are small tribes and clans that are involved in small scale disturbances at the
local level.
A rising drug trade, poor security forces, and pervasive corruption undermined the Karzai
government, while Americans abandoned a successful strategy, failed to provide the necessary
support, and allowed a growing sanctuary for insurgents in Pakistan to catalyze the Taliban
resurgence.
1

1. Jones, Seth : In the Graveyard of Empires, Americas War in Afghanistan WW Norton and Company
2009.





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PART-4
IMPACT OFAFGHANISTAN ON PAKISTAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY
POLICY

NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY:
The National Security Policy is a statement of principles that should guide national decision-
making and determine courses of action to be taken in order to attain the state or condition
wherein the national interests, the well-being of our people and institutions, and our sovereignty
and territorial integrity are protected and enhanced. The purpose of the National Security Policy
is to identify the strategic priorities to establish the correct balance in the guns or butter debate
for the allocation of scarce resources; and to establish the prioritization, among others, between
external and internal defense.
in the following discussion we will discuss the national security policy of Pakistan and how has
it been changing and modified over time.
SECURITY POLICY OF PAKISTAN:
From 1947 onwards
After gaining independence from Britain, Pakistans security policy was mainly focused on
maintaining a military balance with India. As India had an upper hand in terms of more and
technologically advanced weapons, Pakistan always designed security policies with the pertinent
threat of an arch rival next door in mind.
Cold War Era
There came a shift in the security policy of Pakistan during the cold War era after Pakistan
emerged as a U.S ally. To attain strategic depth at the Western border, Pakistan thought it a good
measure to train Mujahideen in Afghanistan. The borders were thus an open gateway for people
living on both sides to mingle and travel.
1
Security policy of Pakistan after Russian Withdrawal
This can also be called the post cold war era. U.S had emerged as the front runner in the politics
of not only this region but globally. Pakistan had become a nuclear power by 1998 and it had
gained military stability at the eastern border.

1. Krause, Joachim, and Charles K. Mallory. 2013. Afghanistan, Pakistan and strategic change: adjusting
western regional policy
11


Meanwhile, the Taliban had emerged as a force in Afghanistan and their extremist policies were
making Afghanis leave their homes and flee to Pakistan as the border was open for free travel.
This led to heavy influx of migrants on the Western border and Pakistan which was already
facing economic troubles and sanctions after becoming a nuclear power had to face the various
problems that came along with these migrants, the major ones being drug trade and increase in
internal security issues.
Post 9/11 Security Policy
After the 9/11 attacks on America, the security policy of Pakistan shifted to a new direction as
Pakistan became the front line ally of America. Pakistan had to pay a price for this alliance in the
form of internal security lapse. It was domino effect of accepting an ideology that was not
acceptable to groups within and outside the country.
Financial aid to Pakistan from 2001-2013
Being an ally of the U.S.A in its war against terror in Afghanistan, Pakistan was funded by the
U.S.A. the following table gives a detailed account of U.S Aid and military reimbursements to
Pakistan
1.
All figures are in millions of dollars.
Program FY2002-
2006
FY
2007
FY
2008
FY
2009
FY
2010
FY
2011
FY
2012
FY
2013
FY
2014(requested)
Security
aid total
1,295 396 517 989 1,236 1,277 849 Data not
complete
397

Economic
Aid total
2,152 576 506 1366 1,796 1186 1067 63 766

CSF fund 4947 731 1019 685 1499 1118 688 NO
DATA


Grand
Total
8394 1703 2043 3040 4504 3581 2604 63 1163
*CSF is counterinsurgency fund

1. : U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Agriculture; U.S. Agency for International
Development.
12

Continued U.S support after withdrawal
The U.S claims Pakistan to be one of its important allies in the war and wants a strong
democratic Pakistan that is able to play a crucial role in the geo-politics of the region even after
the troops withdraw from Afghan soil. The FY2014 budget request indicates the level of
importance the Obama Administration places on a stable, democratic, and prosperous Pakistan
because of its critical role in the region with respect to U.S. counterterrorism efforts, nuclear
nonproliferation, regional stability, the peace process in Afghanistan, and regional economic
integration and development.
1
PART-5
REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF WITHDRAWAL OF U.SFORCES

1. Role of Iran
Iran is one of the major countries in the region. The U.S must engage Iran constructively in an
effort to find out the level of mutual interest. This development of mutual understanding and
interest can be beneficial for the development of Afghanistan by having peace at one end of the
border.
2
While the future of U.S.-Iranian relations remains unclear, any improvement in the
relationship would facilitate the success of U.S.-supported initiatives in Afghanistan: the New
Silk Road strategy, which seeks to improve Afghanistans economic ties with Central and South
Asia, and the Heart of Asia confidence-building process, which fosters high-level dialogue on
security, political, and economic cooperation among Afghanistan and its neighbors. Both are
catchwords for Washingtons policy of trying to shift more responsibility for Afghanistans
reconstruction to the states of the region. But the international sanctions against Iran and the state
of U.S.-Iranian relations are making it difficult for policymakers in Washington to implement
this regional approach
.

I


1. A Guest Lecture Report on Post Withdrawal Scenario in Afghanistan; its impact on
FATA. FATA Research Center
2. Laipson, Ellen B. 2012. Engaging Iran on Afghanistan. Washington, DC: Henry L.
Stimson Center.
13

Role of India
India has a very significant role to play when it comes to the post withdrawal scenario in
Afghanistan. The U.S has considerable influence on both India and Pakistan. Peace between the
two countries is essential for creating peace in the entire region as well as Afghanistan.
1
A worrying thing is the recent visit of John Kerry to the region annoying Pakistan and giving
India an upper hand by saying that India could play Central Role in Afghanistan elections and
in settling the ongoing disputes to create peace.This statement of Senator Kerry hardly shows
that if Pakistan has had any central role to play in Afghanistan, post withdrawal of American
forces from the war torn region? Afghanistan is an important traditional security numerator for
India and Pakistan. India has always regarded political upheavals in Afghanistan as its internal
affair. A robust Indian role in Afghanistan should serve to advance other U.S. foreign policy
objectives as well. In its efforts to gain greater access to Central Asian energy markets, for
example, Delhi will need to develop an effective trade and transportation infrastructure in
Afghanistan to connect with the Central Asian Republics (CARs), particularly Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. This will, in turn, reduce Chinas influence in South and Central
Asia an objective that both Washington and Delhi share.India is not an immediate neighbour of
Afghanistan having no geographical, religious or ethnic linkages. Giving India a window of
opportunity in the post-2014 withdrawal will have serious implications for the region instead of
bringing peace. Pakistan needs to be cautious of Indias role in Afghanistan. So Pakistani
sensitivities regarding India should be kept in mind. If U.S keeps on muddling the situation like
this then bringing peace in the region seems to be even far from difficult. Despite treating
Pakistan like a banana republic. United States has to portray its policies in the region which
should be aiming to strike a balance between India and Pakistan, until and unless both Pakistan
and India resolves their major disputes. So there is a need for realization among the international
community that Pakistan has a greater role in the war-torn country and always tried to make a
positive contribution. Also it is believed that in South Asia, Pakistan is a linchpin in rooting out
terrorism from the region, and the US cannot succeed without Pakistan.






1
. Soherwordi,Syed Hussain Shaheed .Withdrawal of American forces from
Afghanistan (Endgame): Issues and challenges for Pakistan . Journal of Political
Studies, Vol. 19, Issue - 1, 2012, 129:141
14

CONCLUSION
Role of Pakistan
As the U.S and its allies withdraw from Afghanistan, the political and economic fall out can be
devastating. Especially its implications on Pakistan are fearsome. Pakistan might fall victim of
terrorist attacks and a further downfall in economy. The impact of withdrawal of forces from
Afghanistan is a complex issue when it comes to the after effects. The political parties in
Pakistan take the withdrawal decision appreciatively as this will be a step to creating peace in the
FATA and KPK regions.
1
Keeping in mind the deep rooted historic rivalry of India and Pakistan, Pakistan wants peace at
its border with Afghanistan. This would mean an end of the tireless war at the Afghan border.
Pakistan now needs to develop a security policy which is suitable to meet the challenges the
withdrawal of U.S troops from Afghanistan can bring. The biggest can be the rise of Taliban and
increase in insecurity.The security policy should be friendly but diplomatic and one that makes
government stick to the policy of non-intervention in other countries internal issues,
Islamabads Jinnah Institute in its briefing (July 25, 2011) spelled out Pakistans objectives in
relation to post-withdrawal Afghanistan. The most outstanding point made in the report pertained
to India: Pakistani foreign policy elite accept that India has a role to play in Afghanistans
economic reconstruction but Pakistani security establishment [thinks] a reluctance to address
Pakistani misgivings increases the likelihood of a growing Indian footprint, and in turn, New
Delhis greater ability to manipulate the endgame negotiations and the post-settlement
dispensation in Kabul.




1. Jones, Seth G.. After the Withdrawal: A Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT382



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STEPS TO BE TAKEN BY PAKISTAN
Pakistan expects Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network, Hekmatyars Hizb-i-Islami,
ragtag warlords of Fata and Malakand to battle an Afghan Army already inclined to
defection. But manpower will still be needed to even the scales and speed up defections.
The Taliban will be helped by the Punjabi Taliban, of which the Asian Tigers are already
aligned to the Haqqanis. The Defence of Pakistan Council headed by the powerful
Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) will oblige with more Punjabi manpower. The JuD leader Hafiz
Saeed allegedly says he alone can muster 100,000.
Pakistan is home to the armies that will enter Afghanistan but it hardly controls them.
Therefore, the blowback from Afghanistan this time will be transformational for
Pakistan. It may not survive the fundraising by its non-state actors through kidnappings
and bank robberies in its major cities. This trend among the state-supported jihadi outfits
has been in evidence.
The Taliban in Pakistan have been criminalised. In affected areas, criminals are in the
process of becoming Talibanised. Vendettas are carried out increasingly with suicide
bombers because Taliban are busy selling their surplus fedayeen. Karachi and Peshawar
are already paralysed by kidnappings for ransom. From the current trend in its Defence
Housing Authority, Lahore too, is expected to be targeted in a big away.Pakistan has
sought to appease terrorism by becoming anti-American and pro-Taliban. The policy of
appeasement will proceed to its logical end. The remaining attributes of the state will fall
off, with religious parties, plus madrassas with jihadi capacity, increasingly exercising
authority in its name.








16


BIBLIOGRAPHY
1.
1.
Ritscher, Adam, A Brief history of Afghanistan.
http://www.afghangovernment.com/briefhistory.htm
2.
2.
Bosin, Yury. Afghanistan, resistance to 19th century British invasion, 2009.
3. Afghanistan Invaded by Soviets, December 27, 1979 .
http://www.aasd.k12.wi.us/staff/hermansenjoel/sawar.pdf
4. Quoted in Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasqui, Forbidden Truth: U.S.-Taliban
Secret Oil Diplomacy and the Failed Hunt for Bin Laden (New York: Thunders Mouth
Press/Nation Books, 2002),

5. Jones, Seth : In the Graveyard of Empires, Americas War in Afghanistan WW Norton
and Company 2009.

6. Smith, Ben and Thorp Arabella ; The Legal Basis for The Invasion of Afghanistan, 26
th

Feb 2010.
7.
.
Soherwordi,Syed Hussain Shaheed .Withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan
(Endgame): Issues and challenges for Pakistan . Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 19,
Issue - 1, 2012, 129:141

\