The Energy War Between U.S.A.

and Russia and the Threat for Israels Survival

Iakovos Alhadeff
Published by Iakovos Alhadeff at Smashwords
Copyright 2014 Iakovos Alhadeff
TA!" #$ C#%T"%TS
The Co&fli't i& (krai&e
The %ord Stream a&d South Stream Pipeli&es
()S)A) * "urope
Turkey * Ira&
Israel
The Conflict in Uraine
The 'o&fli't i& (krai&e is o&ly a part of the e&ergy war betwee& +ussia a&d (&ited States)
"urope is very poor i& terms of e&ergy resour'es, but very ri'h i& all other aspe'ts) oth ()S)A)
a&d +ussia wa&t to domi&ate the "uropea& e&ergy market, si&'e this does &ot o&ly i&volve
e'o&omi' gai&s, but aslo i&'reased diplomati' power) "&ergy is very importa&t for all developed
e'o&omies, a&d e&ergy providers &ormally have politi'al power over e&ergy re'ipie&ts)
+ussia is the ri'hest 'ou&try i& &atural gas reserves a&d the &umber o&e oil produ'er) It is &ot
however the ri'hest 'ou&try i& oil reserves) Please &ote that the ri'hest 'ou&tries i& e&ergy
reserves are &ot &e'essarily the largest e&ergy produ'ers too) At the followi&g -ikipedia li&k you
'a& see .a/prom0s "uropea& market shares) .a/prom is the +ussia& state ow&ed &atural gas
gia&t, a&d o& average it holds 102 of the "uropea& &atural gas market)
http344e&)wikipedia)org4wiki4+ussia5i&5the5"uropea&5e&ergy5se'tor
6oreover +ussia supplies a large part of the oil 'o&sumed by "uropea& 'ou&tries) This e&ergy
domi&a&'e is a big pai& for (&ited States, si&'e it gives +ussia politi'al power over %AT#
members) Therefore the Ameri'a&s wish to provide "urope with alter&ative sour'es of e&ergy,
a&d more spe'ifi'ally with alter&ative sour'es of &atural gas, si&'e &atural gas is most of the time
delivered through pipeli&es, a&d it 'reates a greater depe&de&'y o& the part of the e&ergy
re'ipie&t tha& oil, whi'h is &ormally tra&sferred with ships)
The !ord Strea" and
the South Strea" #i$elines
6ost of .a/prom0s &atural gas, appro7imately 802 of it, is distributed to "urope through
(krai&e) At the followi&g li&k you 'a& read about the disputes betwee& +ussia a&d (krai&e over
&atural gas distributio&)
http344e&)wikipedia)org4wiki4+ussia2"2280291(krai&e5gas5disputes
That0s the reaso& the Ameri'a&s are so kee& to help a&ti:+ussia& a&d %AT# frie&dly (krai&ia&s)
The +ussia&s o& the other ha&d do &ot like this depe&de&'y o& (krai&e, a&d have developed the
%ord Stream pipeli&e whi'h delivers .a/prom0s &atural gas dire'tly to .erma&y, through the
alti' Sea, thus bypassi&g (krai&e) ;ou 'a& see at the followi&g C map the %ord Stream
pipeli&e with .ree& 'olor)
6ap 1
Sour'e C <http344www)bb')'o)uk4&ews4world:europe:148010=>?
+ussia wa&ts to also develop a&other pipeli&e, the South Stream, whi'h you 'a& see with the blue
'olor o& the map, whi'h will agai& bypass (krai&e a&d will deliver .a/prom0s &atural gas to
Souther& "urope) -he& both these pipeli&es will be ready, the +ussia&s will &ot depe&d a&ymore
o& (krai&e to supply the whole "urope with +ussia& &atural gas) As you 'a& see the South
Stream will 'ross the la'k Sea, a&d from ulgaria will distribute &atural gas to Souther&
"urope)
To develop the South Stream pipeli&e, +ussia &eeds the help of ulgaria, a&d also the help of
Turkey, si&'e the "7'lusive "'o&omi' @o&es of both ulgaria a&d Turkey are i&volved) #&e but
&ot the o&ly reaso& there was so mu'h &oise about Crimea was be'ause of Crimea0s effe't o& the
(krai&e a&d +ussia& "7'lusive "'o&omi' @o&es) Crimea is the pie'e of la&d u&der (krai&e o&
map 2
6ap 2
As you 'a& see, if (krai&e 'o&trols Crimea, (krai&e would have a sayi&g o& the South Stream
'rossi&g the la'k Sea, si&'e it would fall i&side (krai&e0s e7'lusive e'o&omi' /o&e) ut if
Crimea belo&gs to +ussia, (krai&e does &ot have a sayi&g o& the 'o&stru'tio& of the pipeli&e)
A&d +ussia a&&e7ed Crimea as we all k&ow) A&d as you 'a& see o& map 1, from
whowhatwhy)'om, whi'h is a''urate, the +ussia&s desig&ed the pipeli&e &earer Turkey to totally
avoid (krai&e)
6ap 1
The "uropea&s are divided o& the issue of the South Stream) As you 'a& see at the followi&g
+euters0 li&k,
http344www)reuters)'om4arti'le4201440441A4us:ukrai&e:'risis:gas:southstream:a&alys:
id(S+"A1.1BP2014041A
some 'ou&tries per'eive it as a positive developme&t i)e) .erma&y, Italy, ulgaria) The importa&t
poi&t to &ote is that o&'e the South Stream is ready, together with the %ord Stream, will allow
.a/prom to supply with &atural gas the whole "uropea& Co&ti&e&t without relyi&g o& the
(krai&ia& pipeli&e &etwork) 6oreover, as you 'a& see o& the followi&g -ikipedia li&k, (krai&e
is the 2=th ri'hest 'ou&try i& the world i& terms of &atural gas reserves, whi'h further e&ha&'es
its geostrategi' importa&'e)
http344e&)wikipedia)org4wiki4%atural5gas5i&5(krai&e
U.S.A. and Euro$e
As I already said, the Ameri'a&s a&d the "uropea&s wa&t to have ma&y sour'es of &atural gas, i&
order to limit the e'o&omi' but mai&ly the diplomati' i&flue&'e that +ussia e&Coys over %AT#
members, a&d whi'h arises by the 102 of .a/prom0s share i& the "uropea& market) It also has to
do with 'ompetitio& issues) The more e&ergy optio&s a 'ou&try has the 'heaper it buys its e&ergy)
The Ameri'a&s a&d the "uropea&s wa&t to bri&g &atural gas from the e&ergy ri'h Caspia& Sea to
"urope) The %abu''o Pipeli&e a&d the Pa&s Adriati' Pipeli&e are two of the possible routes) The
%abu''o pipeli&e whi'h you 'a& see with red 'olor o& map 1 will bri&g Caspia& &atural gas to
"urope through Turkey) The other possible pipeli&e, the Tra&s Adriati' Pipeli&e TAP, whi'h you
'a& see o& map 4 below, will agai& bri&g &atural gas from Caspia& Sea to "urope through
Turkey)
6ap 4
Turey and Iran
It is 'lear how importa&t Turkey is for the Ameri'a&s a&d "uropea&s, si&'e both the %abu''o a&d
the TAP pipeli&es will have to pass through its territories to deliver Caspia& &atural gas to
"uropea& markets) A&d I am &ot talki&g for the obvious e'o&omi' be&efits) I am talki&g about
Turkey0s i&'reased geopoliti'al power) It is very importa&t for the Ameri'a&s a&d "uropea&s to
have Turkey o& their side, so if they de'ide to take sa&'tio&s agai&st +ussia a&d there is a
disturba&'e i& &atural gas supply, Turkey will &ot 'ut off supplies from the Caspia& Sea too to
support +ussia) Curre&tly it is very pai&ful for the Ameri'a&s a&d the "uropea&s to take
sa&'tio&s agai&st +ussia, si&'e .a/prom provides a large share of the &atural gas 'o&sumed i&
the "uropea& markets) As you 'a& see o& map > below
6ap >
Ira&0s is also very importa&t for the Ameri'a&s a&d the "uropea&s) Ira& is situated o& the Caspia&
Sea a&d it will be very diffi'ult for the Ameri'a&s to e&sure stable &atural gas supply to "urope if
they fa'e a hostile Ira&) 6oreover Ira& is a very e&ergy ri'h 'ou&try, o&e of the ri'hest o&es i&
fa't, a&d its &atural gas 'ould be tra&sferred to "urope too) The %abu''o a&d TAP pipeli&es are
supposed to tra&sfer &atural gas from %AT# frie&dly A/erbaiCa&, but other 'ou&tries 'a& be
'o&&e'ted o& the pipeli&e &etwork too) Therefore both Ira& a&d Turkey are e7tremely importa&t
for the Ameri'a& a&d "uropea& efforts to provide "urope with abu&da&t &o& +ussia& &atural gas)
Israel
The i&'rease i& Turkey0s a&d Ira&0s geopoliti'al power poses a lethal threat to Israel) ;ou have to
keep i& mi&d that Turkey a&d Ira& are two of Israel0s lethal e&emies) Ira&0s goal is to elimi&ate
Israel, a&d Turkey, a& e7 Israel ally, does &ot seem to be further away from this view, u&der the
leadership of +e'ep "rdoga&) A'tually everybody k&ows that it is mai&ly Ira&, Turkey a&d Datar
that support a&d provide fu&di&g to Eamas, whi'h is re'og&i/ed by ()S)A), the ")"), Fapa& a&d
other 'ou&tries as a terrorist orga&i/atio&) Eamas ru&s the .a/a Strip, a&d 'ame to power with
ele'tio&s i& .a/a) It is Eamas that fires all these ro'kets that you hear about from .a/a to Israel)
At the followi&g arti'le you 'a& read about the fu&di&g of Eamas)
http344www)globalse'urity)org4military4world4para4hamas:fu&ds)htm
I& this 'ha&gi&g geopoliti'al map, Israel does &ot seem to be able to 'ou&t o& (&ited States for
its survival, as it has for so ma&y years do&e) This has already 'aused a deterioratio& i& the
Ameri'a&:Israeli relatio&s, a&d a& improveme&t i& the +ussia&:Israeli relatio&s) ;ou have to
keep i& mi&d that ri'h &atural gas fields were also fou&d i& the 6editerra&ea& See, i& the regio&
betwee& .ree'e, Cyprus,Turkey a&d Israel) This 'ould be also a& e&ergy alter&ative for "urope
as you 'a& see o& map =
6ap =
The problem is that it is very diffi'ult a&d very 'ostly to build a pipeli&e &etwork through the
6editerra&ea& See if Turkey is i&volved i& the proCe't) ut with the 'urre&t politi'al situatio&
betwee& Turkey a&d Israel this does &ot seem to be feasible, at least &ot for Israel0s part of
e&ergy)
The &atural gas fou&d i& the Israeli sea, might be the o&ly 'hip for survival that Israel has i& this
e&ergy hu&gry world) It seems that Israel is givi&g +ussia a role i& its e&ergy wealth) At the
followi&g loomberg li&k you 'a& see the 'ooperatio& betwee& .a/prom a&d the Israelis)
http344www)bloomberg)'om4&ews42011:02:2=4ga/prom:holds:talks:to:e7port:all:l&g:from:
israeli:tamar:proCe't)html
It seems that i& a world where Israelis 'a&&ot 'ou&t o& the prote'tio& of the Ameri'a&s, they are
movi&g towards +ussia) They are &ot 'o&&e'ted to +ussia i& the same way they were 'o&&e'ted
to the ()S)A), but it seems they are somewhere betwee& these two 'ou&tries) At the followi&g
$i&a&'ial Times li&k, you 'a& see that Israel did &ot vote agai&st +ussia i& the ()%) resolutio&
about (krai&e) It rather preferred to abstai&)
http344www)ft)'om4'ms4s404a>1>09b2:'==>:11e1:ba0e:00144feabd'0)htmlGa7//19DhkBtrF
The $T e7ami&es the 'auses for this behavior a&d at the e&d of the arti'le say3
Hut the stro&gest motivatio& for Israel to stay out of the (krai&e fra'as lies i& the prese&t day
a&d 'loser to home3 +ussia is a stro&g a&d growi&g power i& the 6iddle "ast)
Israel &eeds to e&gage 6os'ow o& several vital issues3 Ira&0s &u'lear programme a&d the
disma&tleme&t of Syria0s 'hemi'al weapo&s sto'kpile) 6os'ow is the biggest foreig& patro& of
ashar al:Assad0s Syria a&d a maCor supplier of arms to the 6iddle "ast i& ge&eral)
ehi&d 'losed doors, Israel has prevailed o& +ussia to refrai& from supplyi&g game:'ha&gi&g
weapo&s to Syria that 'ould la&d i& the ha&ds of Ei/bollah, its best:armed regio&al e&emy)I
6oreover as you 'a& see at the followi&g -ikipedia li&k, Avigdor !ieberma&, the Israeli $oreig&
Affairs 6i&ister, is a +ussia& Few) Ee was bor& i& +ussia, served i& the +ussia& Army, a&d later
immigrated to Israel with his family) It is Hstra&geI that the Israelis 'hose a +ussia& soldier as
their 6i&ister of $oreig& Affairs)
http344e&)wikipedia)org4wiki4Avigdor5!ieberma&
Some people are 'o&fused be'ause the ()S) is still givi&g Israel some fi&a&'ial aid) $or e7ample
they re'e&tly offered Israel 200 millio& dollars i& terms of fi&a&'ial aid) ut Israel was re'eivi&g
appro7imately 1 billio& dollars a year i& Ameri'a& aid some years ago) This 200 millio& dollars,
is some of the last mo&ey Israel is re'eivi&g from (&ited States as you 'a& read at the followi&g
arti'le
http344www)huffi&gto&post)'om4steve&:strauss4us:aid:israel5b542>1A42)html
$or Israel there is a&other big problem, &amely the pipeli&es that will tra&sfer &atural gas from
the Persia& .ulf to "uropea& markets, a&d more spe'ifi'ally the pipeli&es that will tra&sfer
&atural gas from the Persia& .ulf0s South Pars4%orth Jome field) South Pars4%orth Jome is the
ri'hest &atural gas filed i& the world a&d it lies betwee& Datar a&d Ira&) It is Coi&tly ow&ed by
Datar a&d Ira&) ;ou 'a& see it o& map A)
6ap A
These pipeli&es are the real 'ause of the 'urre&t war i& IraK a&d Syria) 6uslims are divided i&
Su&is a&d Shias) A&d the Shias wa&t to tra&sfer the &atural gas through the route Ira&:IraK:Syria:
!eba&o&:6editerra&ea& Sea: "urope a&d the Su&is through the route Datar:Saudi Arabia:Forda&:
Syria:Turkey:"urope) ;ou 'a& see both the Su&i <purple 'olor? a&d Shia <red 'olor? pipeli&es at
the followi&g map
6ap 8
Su&is a&d Shias are 'urre&tly fighti&g i& Syria a&d IraK) As you 'a& see o& map 9, if Su&is wi&
Syria a&d IraK, Shias 'a&&ot go ahead with their pipeli&e) The o&ly other route to rea'h "urope
would be through Turkey) ut Turkey is o& the Su&i side) The problem for Israel is that
Ameri'a&s are supporti&g the Su&is i& this 'o&fli't) Ameri'a&s are very good frie&ds with Datar,
o&e of the ow&ers of South Pars4 %orth Jome) The +ussia&s support the Shia pipeli&e i)e) Ira&)
It is k&ow& that Datar is o&e of the 'ou&tries that heavily fu&d Eamas, whi'h is the terrorist
orga&i/atio& that throws ro'kets from .a/a to Israel, a&d it is offi'ially re'og&i/ed by ()S)A) a&d
"urope as a terrorist orga&i/atio&) Therefore Israel 'a&&ot 'ou&t o& the Ameri'a&s at least for as
lo&g as they ba'k their lethal e&emies) #& the other ha&d, Ira& is with +ussia o& this fight, a&d
together they support Assad i& Syria) ut Ira& is also fu&di&g Eamas) ut it is i& dire't
'ompetitio& with Datar o& this pipeli&e fight)
ut it is Ira&0s &u'lear program that is the lethal threat to Israelis) A&d it is the +ussia&s that
'o&trol the &u'lear program of the Ira&ia&s) A&d the Ameri'a&s do &ot seem very i&terested i&
preve&ti&g Ira& from developi&g its &u'lear arse&al) As you 'a& see o& the fourth paragraph of
the followi&g -ikipedia li&k, it is the +ussia&s that developed the first &u'lear fa'tory i& Ira&)
http344e&)wikipedia)org4wiki4%u'lear5program5of5Ira&
A&d as you 'a& see o& the followi&g +euters li&k, the +ussia&s will develop a&other 8 &u'lear
rea'tors i& Ira&)
http344uk)reuters)'om4arti'le4201440>4224ira&:&u'lear:russia:id(B!=%0#81BL20140>22
A&d it is the +ussia&s that provide weapo&s to Syria&s o&e of Israel0s oldest foe) If you also take
i&to a''ou&t that #bama is a preside&t who seems to have stro&g ties with the 6uslim world but
also with the 6uslim rotherhood, it should &ot be a big surprise that the Israelis have a +ussia&
soldier as their 6i&ister of $oreig& Affairs) ;ou should also have a look at this video about how
()S)A) i&dire'tly helps Eamas)
https344www)youtube)'om4wat'hMvN-%5i0(B1@(*i&de7N4*listNP!2b#pAh44/v=>ap:
PbglPEBS!SdEAACD6
;ou should also do some resear'h o& the relatio&s of the ()S)A) a&d Datar, a&d o& the relatio& of
Datar, Ira& a&d Turkey with Eamas) It will help you u&dersta&d the 'urre&t geopoliti'al situatio&)
6ap 9
It seems that the 21st 'e&tury will be a very diffi'ult o&e for Israel)