NATO sees 'high probability' of Russian

invasion as Ukraine troops close on Donetsk

1 OF 4. A Ukrainian military convoy moves along a road near Donetsk August 9 !"#$%
BY ADRIAN CROFT AND SERGEI KARPUKHIN&
BRUSSELS/DONETSK Mon Aug 11, 2014
'Reuters( & NATO said on )onday there *as a +high probability+ that Russia could
launch an invasion of Ukraine *here the government said its troops have been closing
in on Donetsk the main city held by pro&Russian rebels%
,iev said it *as in the +final stages+ of recapturing Donetsk by far the biggest city
under the control of the pro&Russian rebels% The battle for the city could be a decisive
turning point in a conflict *hich has caused the biggest confrontation
bet*eenRussia and the -est since the .old -ar%
An industrial metropolis *ith a pre&*ar population of nearly # million the main rebel&
held redoubt rocked to the crash of shells and gunfire over the *eekend and heavy
guns boomed through the night into )onday from the outskirts of the city%
Ukraine appears to be pressing ahead *ith its offensive undeterred by the presence of
*hat NATO says are some !"""" Russian troops massed on the nearby border for a
potential ground invasion%
,iev has said in recent days that it succeeded in using diplomacy to prevent Russia
from launching a ground invasion to protect the rebels under the guise of a
humanitarian mission% )osco* announced on /riday it *as ending *ar games in the
area%
0ut NATO 1ecretary&2eneral Anders /ogh Rasmussen said there *as still no sign
Russia had *ithdra*n the troops it had massed at the frontier *hich prompted
*arnings from the -est last *eek that 3resident 4ladimir 3utin could be planning to
invade%
Asked in a Reuters intervie* ho* high he rated the chances of Russian military
intervention Rasmussen said5 +There is a high probability%+
+-e see the Russians developing the narrative and the prete6t for such an operation
under the guise of a humanitarian operation and *e see a military buildup that could
be used to conduct such illegal military operations in Ukraine+ he said%
NATO believes any Russian humanitarian mission *ould be used as a prete6t to save
the rebels *ho are fighting for control of t*o provinces under the banner of +Ne*
Russia+ a term 3utin has used for southern and eastern Ukraine *here Russian is
spoken%
Despite the presence of the Russian troops at the frontier ,iev has pressed on *ith its
advance apparently calculating that -estern pressure can deter 3utin from invading%
On )onday the ,remlin ruled out a unilateral humanitarian operation% 3utin's
spokesman Dmitry 3eskov said )osco* *ould only send humanitarian aid as part of
an agreed international mission *ords that could be read as an attempt to reassure
the -est and ,iev that )osco* is not planning an assault%
.7T781 +.UT O//+
Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy 9ysenko told Reuters government forces had
finally succeeded in cutting off the road bet*een Donetsk and 9uhansk the other main
rebel&held city *hich is closer to the Russian border% ,iev and its -estern allies say
the route has been the principal means of supplying the rebels in Donetsk *ith
*eapons%
+The forces of the anti&terrorist operation are preparing for the final stage of liberating
Donetsk+ 9ysenko told Reuters% +Our forces have completely cut Donetsk off from
9uhansk% -e are *orking to liberate both cities but it's better to liberate Donetsk first &
it is more important%+
The leader of the rebels in Donetsk Ale6ander :akharchenko a local man *ho took
over the leadership from a Russian citi;en last *eek said the fighters *ere considering
mounting a counter attack against government forces in the ne6t !&< days%
9ysenko said clashes took place in several parts of eastern Ukraine over the past !$
hours *ith si6 Ukrainian service members killed and big losses to the rebel side% Rebel
losses could not be independently confirmed%
)unicipal authorities in Donetsk said artillery shelling knocked out po*er stations in
the city and hit a high&security prison killing one inmate and allo*ing more than a #""
criminals to escape%
U%N% agencies say more than ##"" people have been killed including government
forces rebels and civilians in the four months since rebels sei;ed territory in the east
and the government launched its crackdo*n% ,iev says =>? of its troops have been
killed in combat%
2overnment forces have been advancing since @une pushing rebels into Donetsk and
9uhansk capitals of t*o provinces that the fighters have declared independent
+people's republics+%
/ighting in recent *eeks has focused on the route linking the cities near *here
)alaysia Airlines flight )A#B crashed in @uly killing all !9? people on board%
-ashington says the plane *as almost certainly shot do*n accidentally by rebels using
an advanced Russian missile% )osco* denies this%
/ighting near the site forced the Netherlands to put off a mission to recover human
remains and investigate the crash%
The rebels in eastern Ukraine have been led mostly by Russian citi;ens and field heavy
*eaponry ,iev and its allies say can only have come from Russia% )osco* denies
aiding them%
+T72AT8N7N2 TA8 R7N2+
The past *eek sa* increasingly urgent *arnings from ,iev and -estern countries that
3utin appeared to planning an invasion%
-estern countries said 3utin & *ho has *hipped up the passions of Russians *ith a
relentless nationalist campaign in state&controlled media since anne6ing Ukraine's
.rimea peninsula in )arch & could invade to head off a humiliating rebel defeat%
0ut there have been signs in recent days that )osco* may be searching for another
*ay to get out of the conflict *ithout being dra*n into a ground invasion%
-hen the Russian citi;en leading the rebellion in Donetsk abruptly stepped do*n in
favour of local man :akharchenko last *eek many read that as a sign of potential de&
escalation5 ,iev has said it could contemplate negotiations *ith locals but *ould never
talk to foreigners it calls international terrorists%
Donetsk is facing an increasing shortage of food *ater and fuel% /e* people are on the
streets apart from groups of armed separatist fighters% There is relatively little traffic
*ith petrol in short supply% Those *ho have not left for the countryside are staying
indoors% 0anks are closed and pensions and social allo*ances are not being paid%
1helling on )onday from the direction of the international airport and the suburb of
Casynuvata to the north knocked out a string of po*er stations the municipal
authority said%
9ysenko speaking to Dournalists denied government forces had targeted the high&
security prison for especially dangerous prisoners on the city's *estern outskirts
*here the city authorities said one inmate *as killed by shelling and more than #""
dangerous criminals escaped in an ensuing riot%
Though the ,iev government says it is tightening a cordon around the separatists in
Donetsk s*athes of the east are still under rebel control including 9uhansk and the
to*ns of Aorlivka to the north of Donetsk and )akiyivka to its east% The key rail and
road hub of ,rasny 9uch bet*een Donetsk and 9uhansk is still outside government
control military sources in ,iev said%
9ysenko painted a picture of disarray in the rebels' ranks% +A mood of panic is gripping
the Russian mercenaries% 1ome are deserting others are disoriented disillusioned and
don't have a uniform strategy for conducting further combat+ he said%
-estern countries have imposed sanctions on )osco* *hich though initially mild
*ere tightened substantially after the do*ning of the )alaysian airliner%
)osco* replied last *eek *ith a ban on imports of all meat poultry dairy fruit and
vegetables from the United 1tates 8uropean Union .anada Australia and non&8U
member Nor*ay%
'Additional reporting by Richard 0almforth 3avel 3olityuk and Natalia :inets in ,iev
Ale6ei Anishchuk and 9ina ,ushch in Donetsk -riting by Richard 0almforth
and 3eter 2raff editing by 3eter )illership(
3osted by Thavam