Forecasting Reservoir Y Performance After Breaktrough in

Vertical Well by Kou Desbrisay Method

By:
Keiza Cindy Callista
0801026
STT Migas Balikpapan

Abstract
Coning is the movement of fluids (water, gas) into perforation. Water coning is the
upward movement into perforation. Water coning factors are perforation is close to WOC
and the low well pressure. Water coning impact corotion, oil productivity and recovery
efficency reduce, and also added cost. There are three method to forecasting water coning.
They are critical rate, breaktrough time, and after breaktrough (post breaktrough).
In reservoir Y in the X field has bototm water drive. This well prospect to has water
coning. With some datas, forecasting oil productivity rate and time for adding production
after passed the time to breaktrough when productivity rate is higher than critical rate.

Introduction
To produce oil from reservoir, oil
from reservoir will flow into the
perforation and flow to the surface. And
according to the time when oil is flowing
the other fluids move into the perforation.
The movement called coning. There are
two kinds of coning, gas coning and water
coning. Gas coning is the down movement
of gas into the perforation. And water
coning is the upward movement of water
into the perforation.

Figure 1
Water Coning
Water Coning Factors
When oil is produce there is a
displacement from water that fill the empty
pore. The displacement makes the water
move upward into the perforation. Beside
that there are some factors that makes
water coning, such as :
The well pressure (Pwf) is reduce and
impact drawdown pressure is higher
The perforation is close to water oil
contact (WOC)

Water coning should be controlled because
it impacts some draw backs, such as :
Added cost to handle the water
Oil productivity reduce because of the
relative permeability
Water causing the corotion
Recovery effiency reduce because of
the water cut critical point
Well could be abandon early

Water Coning Control
Based on history there are three
method to control water coning. There are
critical rate, breaktrough time and post
breaktrough.
1. Critical Rate
Critical rate is the first period to
contol water coning. It calculate the
critical rate to prevent water coning.
there are some method to calculate
critical rate, for example Meyer and
Garder Method and Chaney et al
Method.
Basicly all method has the same
principal formula.

Where :
q
c
= oil critical rate, STB/day
k
o
= effective oil permeability,
md
h = oil thicness, ft
D = interval perforation thicness,
ft

o
= oil viscosity, cp
Bo = formation factor volum,
bbl/STB

q
DC
= dimensionless critical rate
=
w

o, water oil system
=
o
-
g
oil-gas system
The differences each critical rate
method is formuloa to calculate
dimensionless critical rate.
a. Meyer and Garder Method

Figure 2
Water Coning Vertical Well

Meyer and Garder defined the
dimensionless critical rate.


Combine oil critical rate formula
and dimensionless critical rate
formula.


b. Chaney and et al Method
Chaney et al. (1956)
developed a set of working curves
for determining oil critical flow
rate. The authors proposed a set
of working graphs that were
generated by using a
potentiometric analyzer study and
applying the water coning
mathematical theory as developed
by Muskat-Wyckoff (1935).
Curve 1
Critical Production Rate



2. Breaktrough Time
Critical rate show low rates and for
economic reasons, cannot be imposed
on production well. If well produce
above the critical rate, the cone
whould be breaktrough after the time
given. The time is called breaktrough
time. There are several method to
calculate breaktrhough time such as
Sobocinski and Cornelius Method and
Bournazel and Jeanson Method.
a. Sobocinski and Cornelius Method
Sobocinski and Cornelius
defined the dimensionless cone
height and dimensionless time by
simulated into a model.

Figure 3
Water coning model



Where :
Z = Dimensionless cone height
t
d
= Dimensionless time

w
= water density, g/cc

o
= oil density, g/cc
k
h
= horizontal permeability, md
h = oil thicness, ft
h
c
= water cone thicness, ft

o
= oil viscosity, cp
= porosity
= konstanta
M < 1, = 0.5
M 1, = 0.6
M = mobility ratio






Curve 2
Z and t
d
Relation

To calculate breaktrough time,
breaktrough curve is used.
Depature and build up curve is
used to know water coning
performance.


b. Bournazel and Jeanson Method
Bournazel and Jeanson calculate
the breaktrough and always lower
than Sobocinski and Cornelius.
And they modify Sobocinski and
Cornelius formula by changing :
Form t
d
as Z function to
change Sobocinski and
Corneliuss Z and t
d
curve.
Reasess =0.7 for M, in
interval 0.14 7.3
In order to that Bournazel and
Jeanson change Sobinski and
Cornelius formula to determine
time to breaktrough.




3. Post Breaktrough
Once the water breakthrough occurs, it is
important to predict water production as
function to the time. In order that water
cut is predicted. Water cut is a condition
when there is no oil produce, completely
water production. In this contion water
cone has reach the perforation. Kuo and
Desbrisay method is a method is used to
use to determine post breaktrough.
Kuo and Desbray calculate time
to breaktrough first. They determine
time breaktrough a half from
Bournazel and Jeanson time to
braktrough. There are two parameters
to determine water cut performance.



Where :
t
d
= dimensionless time
t = time, day
t
BT
=time to breakthrough
(Bournazel and
Jeanson), day
(WC)
d
= dimensionless water
cut
WC = water cut


Where :
H
o
= original oil zone thickness
(between WOC to the top oil
zone), ft
H
w
= original water zone thickness,
ft
h
o
= oil zone thicness, ft
h
w
= water zone thicness, ft
S
wc
= water connate saturation
S
or
= oil residual saturation
N
p
= cumulative oil production,
STB
N = initial oil in place, STB
Relation between dimensionless water cut
and time.
(WC)
d
= 0, for t
d
< 0.5
(WC)
d
= 0.94 log t
d
+ 0.29
for 0.5 t
d
5.7
(WC)
d
= 1.0, for t
d
> 5.7

Analysis After breaktrough
In X field, reservoir Y has bottom
water drive. And have data :
H
o
= 42 ft
H
w
= 60 ft
q
t
= 100 STB/day
k
h
= 90 md
F
k
= k
h
/k
v
= 10
M =
w
/
o
= 3.27
N = 4.2 x 10
6
STB
S
wc
= 0.288
S
or
= 0.331
Time to breaktrough is the 104.5 day.
Forecasting = 61 after breaktrough
well poducing (N
p
)
1
= 5000 STB water
(q
o
= 60.6 STB/day). If the next water
production is (N
p
)
2
= 5000 STB by
assuming ,

= 92,
determine that

= 92 square
with

= , = 0.05

Figure 4
Reservoir scematic

= 104.5100 = .
By increasing production (N
p
)
1
= 5000
STB with production rate q
o
= 60.6
STB/day in 61 days.

= 10.450 + 5000 = .

=
15.450
4.210
6
= 3.6810
3


Forecasting production increasing 5000
STB in 92 days.

+1
=

+1
= 15.450 + 5000 = .

+1
=

+1

=
20.450
4.210
6
= .

+1

= 60 +42 4.8710
3

1 0.288
1 0.288 0.331
=

1
+1

= 421 4.8710
3

1 0.288
1 0.288 0.331
= .

=
3.27(60.39)
3.27(60.39) + 31.61
= .

+1
= (1

+1
)

+1
= 1 0.5435100 = .

Oil productivity until time to break

1
=

= /
Oil productivity after breaktrough

= /
Oil productivity average rate

+1
+

=
45.65 + 60.6
2
= . /

Time to added productivity 5000 STB by
productivity rate 53.1 STB/day
=

=
5000
53.1
= .
Comparing assuming time and calculating
time
92 94.16
92
= .
The accuracy is < 0.05

Conclusions
1. Water coning is the upward
movement of water into
perforation.
2. Water coning factors are
perforation close to water oil
contact and the low well pressure.
3. Water coning impacts are corotion,
well abandon earlier, added cost,
oil productivity reduce and
recovery efficiency reduce.
4. Water coning forecasting are
critical rate, breaktrough time, after
breaktrough.

References
1. Ahmed, Tarek. Reservoir
Engineering Handbook, Second
Edition,1946.
2. Kurnia Permadi, Asep. Diktat
Teknik Reservoir II, Edisi pertama,
2004.