Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
=
t
M
n
n is the sample size
t is the Students t value for 90% confidence limit and corresponding degree of freedom
and is the standard deviation of the sample.
The sample size required at 90 percent confidence level has been determined. It was found from the
analysis that the size of the data obtained for each activity at this confidence level is far higher than the
required sample size. The minimum sample size required and the sizes of the data collected for each
activity are given in Table1.
The data collected is analyzed for fitting the probability distribution using Best Fit software from Pallisade
Inc. This software fits the data for each activity with sixteen standard probability distribution functions and
tests for Goodness of Fit (GOF) using Kolmogrov-Smirnov (K-S), Anderson Darling (A-D), Chi-square
(
2
) criteria. This software will fit the probability distribution function and arrives at the parameters for the
distribution obtained by Moment matching method.
The sixteen standard distribution functions then formulated for each of the activity under each GOF criteria
are ranked based on the root mean square error (RMSE) between the probability obtained from the fitted
distribution function and the actual probability value.
=
2
) (
1
. . .
i i
y fx
n
E S M R
Where f(x
i
) is the probability of x
i
from the probability function
y
i
is the probability of x
i
from the observed data
n is the number of samples
3. STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS
All the major activities involved in the highway construction project are analyzed using Best Fit by varying
the sample size. The sample size is varied randomly from thirty to the maximum available with increments
of ten samples taken uniformly throughout the population. The study was carried out for A-D test and K-S
The Ninth East Asia-Pacific Conference on Structural Engineering and Construction
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Construction Engineering and Management CEM - 166
test and the variation in the probability distribution function was studied. From this analysis it was found
that the samples showed variation in the distribution function when the sample size was less than forty in
the K-S test and all the activities except one followed log-log distribution when the sample size was more
than forty. When the same activities were analyzed, using A-D criteria five of them converged to Log
logistic distribution while two converged to Inverse Gauss two converged to Exponential and one followed
Extreme value distribution.
2
test is not taken into account due to the inherent disadvantage of this test that
the distribution function is likely to vary with the size and number of bins used in the analysis. Table 2
shows the variation and the convergence of the probability distribution function for various activities with
varying sample size employing both A-D and K-S tests.
It is observed from Table 2 that none of the activity durations is following the Beta distribution irrespective
4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
he stochastic analysis of the data collected from one hundred and twenty different highway construction
he probability distribution for most of the activities for the highway construction project is following the
he actual probability distribution for the activities can be incorporated in simulation model of project
. REFERENCES
hua D.K.H., Li G.M. (2002) RISim: Resource interacted simulation modeling in construction, ASCE
Der
a probability distribution function for
Jona d,
Lero abilistic cost and schedule
Pho ecission
Sim duration data, ASCE
of the sample size is varied. Two examples of the final distribution curves and the frequency histograms for
various activities obtained with A-D and K-S tests are given in Figures 1 and 2. It can be seen from these
figures that the probability distribution in all the cases is skewed towards the left, the skewness and kurtosis
of the final distribution for each activity is given in Table 3.
T
sites shows that the duration of most of the major activities associated with highway construction follows
Log-logistic distribution. Further this analysis shows that Beta distribution is not followed in any case even
when the sample size is increased five fold than the minimum required. This probability can be attributed to
the highly random nature of reasons for time and cost overruns in developing countries. Thus in such cases,
network analysis with Beta distribution of PERT is debatable. It is essential that network analysis should
follow the actual distribution function for activity duration.
T
log logistic distribution model. The skewness and kurtosis for this distribution is tending towards positive
infinity that clearly shows that the distributions are biased to the left. This implies that for the activity the
most likely duration is very close to the optimistic duration as compared to pessimistic duration.
T
network. This will result in more realistic estimate of the project duration and the associated confidence
level. This will also enable the project personnel to provide an intermediate schedule for the project
depending on the ambient and temporal site conditions and provide necessary changes in the whole project
schedule.
5
C
journal of Construction Engineering and Management (pp195-202)
k T Beeston (1983) Statistical methods for building price data
Javier Fente, Cliff Schexnayder, Kraig Knutson (2000) Defining
construction simulation, ASCE journal of Construction Engineering and Management (pp 234- 241)
than Jingsheng Shi (1999) Activity based construction (ABC) modelling and simulation metho
ASCE journal of Construction Engineering and Management (pp 354-360)
y. J Isidore, W.Edward Back (2002) Multiple simulation analysis for prob
integration, ASCE journal of Construction Engineering and Management (pp 211-219)
tios G Ioannou, Julio C Matinez (1998) Project scheduling using state based probabilistic d
network, Proceedings of the 1998 Winter simulation conference(pp 1287-1295)
aan M Aburizk, Daniel W Halpin(1992) Statistical properties of construction
journal of Construction Engineering and Management (pp 525-544)
The Ninth East Asia-Pacific Conference on Structural Engineering and Construction
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Construction Engineering and Management CEM - 167
Table 1 Sample size required and available
Activity
Sample size required
(90% confidence level)
Available
sample
size
Clearing 8 94
Subgrade 4 94
Capping layer 4 74
Sub base 12 80
Road base 12 94
Base Course 12 94
Wearing Course 40 94
C.D. Foundation 4 74
C.D.Substructure 4 74
C.D.Super structure 3 74
Drainage 4 90
Table 2 Convergence of Distribution Function for Activities
A.D.Test K.S.Test
Activity
< 40 40 50 > 50 < 40 40 50 > 50
Clearing Lognormal Lognormal Exponential Lognormal Loglog Exponential
Sub grade Lognormal Loglog Loglog Inv. gauss Loglog Loglog
Capping layer Inv. gauss Lognormal Lognormal Inv. gauss Lognormal Lognormal
Sub base course. Inv. gauss Inv. gauss Inv. Gauss Loglog Loglog Loglog
Road Base Exp. Loglog Loglog Exp. Loglog Loglog
Base course Pearson Loglog Loglog Pearson Loglog Loglog
Wearing Course Exp. Pearson Inv. Gauss Loglog Loglog Loglog
C.D. Foundation Loglog Loglog Loglog Exp. Loglog Loglog
C.D.Substructure Loglog Loglog Lognormal Inv. gauss Pearson Loglog
C.D.Super structure Ext. value Ext.value Ext.value Pearson Pearson Loglog
Drainage Exp. Loglog Loglog Exp. Loglog Loglog
Table 3. Probability distribution for activities with skewness and kurtosis
Activity Probabaility Distribution Skewness Kurtosis
Clearing y=Exp(8.7740) Shift= +0.90391 1.1395 5.4
Subgrade y= Loglog(-0.25766,14.356,1.7980) +Infinity +Infinity
Capping Layer y=Lognormal2(1.6585,11.46)shift=+0.73546 9.389 328.8852
Sub base y=loglog(3.878,7.3434,1.7212) +Infinity +Infinity
Road Base y=Loglog(0.037730,13.425,1.6813) +Infinity +Infinity
Base Course y=Loglog(1.1471,11.283,1.6399) +Infinity +Infinity
Wearing Course y=loglog(0.42242,10.653,1.5038) +Infinity +Infinity
C.D. Foundation y=Loglog(0.30439,11.616,1.8924) +Infinity +Infinity
C.D.Substructure y=Loglog(0.30439,11.616,1.8924) +Infinity +Infinity
C.D.Super structure y=loglog(-1.0579,12.290,2.6968) +Infinity +Infinity
Drainage y=Loglog(0.31680,10.658,2.0930) +Infinity +Infinity
The Ninth East Asia-Pacific Conference on Structural Engineering and Construction
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Figure 1. Probability Distribution for the Activity Clearing
Figure 2. Probability Distribution for the Activity Sub Grade
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Figure 3. Probability Distribution for the Activity Capping Layer
Figure 4. Probability Distribution for the Activity Sub Base Course
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Figure 5. Probability Distribution for the Activity Road Base
Figure 6. Probability Distribution for the Activity Base Course
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Figure 7. Probability Distribution for the Activity Wearing Course
Figure 8. Probability Distribution for the Activity -CD-Foundation
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Figure 9. Probability Distribution for the Activity CD-Substructure
Figure 10. Probability Distribution for the Activity CD-Superstructure
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Figure 11. Probability Distribution for the Activity Drainage
APPENDIX
Distributions Probability Distribution Function
Erlang
( )
x
e
x
m
m f
=
1
! 1
1
) , (
m>0 (integer shape parameter)
>0(continuous scale parameter)
Exp f(x)=
x
e
=mean
Ext. Value
f(x)=
) (
1
z
e z
e b
+
b
a x
z
=
a=Continuous location parameter
b=Continuous shape parameter
Gamma
x
e
x
f
=
1
) (
.
1
) , (
>0 (scale parameter)
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Construction Engineering and Management CEM - 174
>0 (shape parameter)
Inv. Gauss
=
x
x
e
x
x f
2
2
2
) (
3
2
) ( , >0
Loglog
2
) 1 (
1
) (
t
xt
x f
+
=
x
t
= Continuous shape parameter
= Continuous scale parameter
= Continuous location parameter
LogNormal
2
) ln(
2
1
2
1
) (
=
x
e
x
x f
, are continuous parameters
>0
Pearson
1
.
) (
.
1
) (
+
x
x
e
x
x f
>0 (continuous shape parameter)
>0 (continuous scale parameter)
Weibull
=
1
.
) , (
x
e
x
f
>0 (scale parameter)
>0 (shape parameter)