Evaluation of Mode Estimation Accuracy for

Small-Signal Stability Analysis

Jim Follum, Student Member, IEEE, Ning Zhou, Senior Member, IEEE, John W. Pierre, Senior Member, IEEE
AbstractThis paper proposes a method for determining
electromechanical mode estimate accuracy by relating mode
estimate error to residual values. Mode frequency and damping
ratio were estimated using Prony analysis and residuals were
calculated for a 17-machine model with varying levels of load
noise. Mode estimate error and residuals were found to increase
proportionally to each other as noise values were increased,
revealing a distinctly linear relationship. The use of these results
to develop appropriate condence in models is discussed. With the
relationship established, a method of predicting mode estimate
error values based on residuals in the western North American
power system (wNAPS) was developed. The potential of this
method to evaluate the condence level of mode estimates is
examined.
Index TermsElectromechanical modes, Power system mea-
surement, Power system monitoring, Power system parameter
estimation, Prony analysis.
I. INTRODUCTION
T
O provide reliable electric power to consumers, a power
grid must be kept stable. Specically, the question of
small-signal stability is this: when a system disturbance results
in the oscillation of an inter-area electromechanical mode,
will the oscillation decay harmlessly, or grow in magnitude
until system breakup occurs? Answering this question with
condence is a fundamental step towards ensuring the stability
of a power system.
Inter-area oscillations refer to generators in one area swing-
ing against generators in another area. This phenomenon is
constantly occurring, but the oscillations are of great concern
when they are not well damped. If the damping torque is insuf-
cient, such a disturbance can cause the oscillations to grow
in amplitude, leading to system breakup into islands [1], [2],
[3]. System breakup may lead to a large-scale blackout, such
as the western interconnection power outage that occurred on
August 10, 1996 [1], [2], [4]. The lightly damped inter-area
oscillations are associated with transmitting large amounts of
power over long distances [3].
Accurate and timely mode frequency and damping infor-
mation is critical in maintaining system stability and applying
This paper was prepared as a result of work sponsored by the U. S.
Department of Energy through its Transmission Reliability Program. The
Pacic Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle for the U.S.
Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.
Jim Follum is with the University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
(e-mail: jfollum@uwyo.edu).
Ning Zhou is with the Pacic Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA
99352, USA (e-mail: ning.zhou@pnl.gov).
John Pierre is with the University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
(e-mail: pierre@uwyo.edu).
solutions. For example, when light damping is observed, tie-
line ow can be reduced through load shedding or generation
re-dispatch [2], [5], [6]. Modal analysis is important because
it provides the frequency and damping information needed to
guide such decisions.
Modal analysis can be performed with either a model-based
or a measurement-based method. In the model-based method,
the non-linear differential equations describing the dynamics
of the power system are linearized about an operating point.
Mode frequency and damping can then be calculated using
eigenvalue analysis [1], [7]. The accuracy of the calculated
mode is determined by the quality of the power system model.
With a measurement-based method, a linear model is estimated
from data collected from several phasor measurement units
(PMU) distributed throughout the system. By extracting mode
information from data, this method avoids reliance on the
accuracy of the power system model and thus can serve as
a good compliment in monitoring inter-area modes [8], [9],
[10], [11], [12].
One major question that a measurement-based method must
address is how accurate the estimated linear model and es-
timated modes are. Initial efforts were made by [13], [14]
to quantify the mode estimation errors from ambient data
analysis. To complement the study, this paper proposes a
Monte Carlo approach to validate an estimated model obtained
through ringdown analysis. To accomplish this, the method
seeks to relate mode estimation errors within the model to
residuals.
Residuals, also known as prediction errors, are the dif-
ferences between measurement and model prediction values.
They account for the portion of data that cannot be explained
by the model. A model that describes system features well pro-
duces very small residuals. As such, it was hypothesized that
residuals could provide an indication of how much condence
could be placed in a model and the mode estimations that
it produced. The results presented in this paper indicate that
residual values can provide an indication of the error present
in mode estimates.
The purpose of this paper is to explain the method for
quantifying the relationship between mode error and residual
values and discuss applications of the results. The paper
is organized as follows. Section II provides an overview
of the analysis techniques that were employed. Section III
describes development of the method, and Section IV presents
the results from this development. Section V discusses the
methods application to eld measurement data. Conclusions
and expectations for future work are provided in Section VI.
II. ANALYSIS TOOLS
To obtain mode estimates, Prony analysis [15] was used.
The error in these estimates was established using Monte Carlo
trials. Residual analysis was then applied to determine the
relationship between mode estimate error and residual values.
Following is an examination of each of these methods and the
model they were employed on (a 17-machine model).
A. Prony Analysis
Prony analysis is a method of estimating damped sinusoids
in noise [16]. In 1990, [15] showed that Prony analysis could
be successfully applied to ringdowns occurring on the power
grid to estimate modes. This paper also employed the exten-
sion of Prony analysis described in [17], which allows multiple
channels to be analyzed concurrently to improve accuracy.
In this study, mode frequency, damping ratio (DR), and the
reconstructed ringdown approximation were of interest, the
latter being used in residual analysis. The equations used to
calculate these values are

Freq
=
Imag

2
(1)

DR
= cos

tan
1

Imag

Real

100 (2)
y(k) =
P

i=1

B
i
z
k
i
(3)
where z
i
is the i
th
root of the characteristic polynomial and

i
is the i
th
complex eigenvalue (mode) estimate,

B
i
is the i
th
mode magnitude estimate, P is the model order, and k is the
sample number, which varies from 0 to K1. For a complete
description of how these values are obtained, please refer to
[15], [16].
B. Residual Analysis
Residuals, as described in [18], were calculated as the
difference between the ringdown being analyzed by Prony
analysis, y[k], and the ringdown constructed from the mode
approximations obtained during the analysis, y[k] of (3). A
slight adjustment in notation to an equation presented in [18]
describes this relationship:
[k] = y[k] y[k] (4)
After obtaining these residuals, two metrics were used for
evaluation. These were the maximum residual and the root
mean squared (RMS) residual:
S
MAX
= max|[k]| (5)
S
RMS
=

1
K
K1

k=0

2
[k] (6)
These metrics provided the necessary information to relate
mode estimate error to residuals.
C. Monte Carlo Simulation
It was shown in [19] that if the relationship between the
estimated parameters and measurements is linear and noise can
be modeled as Gaussian white noise, the standard deviations
of the estimated parameters is proportional to S
RMS
and can
be calculated using analytical approaches. For a nonlinear
relationship such as the ringdown and modes, a linearization
procedure can be applied, and the standard deviation of the
modes can be calculated based on the Jacobian matrix. Yet,
due to the nonlinear relationship between the modes and the
coefcients of the characteristic polynomial [20], the lineariza-
tion procedure may introduce signicant errors. Therefore, a
Monte Carlo method is used in this paper.
Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used method of deter-
mining statistical performance by repeating trials with random
components. Depending on the case, statistical measures such
as the mean, root mean squared error (RMSE), and standard
deviation are calculated after the simulation. All of the statis-
tics discussed hereafter were calculated after completing 500-
trial Monte Carlo simulations. The value of 500 was chosen
for its balance between computational burden and accuracy
improvement. For this study, the values of interest were the
maximum residual, RMS residual, frequency RMSE, and DR
RMSE.
D. 17-Machine Model
The 17-machine model was developed by Dr. Dan Trud-
nowski of Montana Tech and has been used extensively in
power system stability studies such as those presented in [8],
[9]. It is a modied version of a simple model representing
the western North American power system (wNAPS). A more
complete description of the model can be found in [21], and
a one-line diagram courtesy of [21] is presented in Fig. 1. For
this research, the model was used to generate ringdowns for
analysis. These ringdowns are produced with per unit (p.u.)
values of power ow. They were generated by simulating a
1400-MW brake insertion at bus 35 for 0.5 seconds, reecting
tests performed on the wNAPS [22].
III. METHOD DEVELOPMENT
A. Mode Estimate Error - Residual Relationship
To develop a relationship between mode estimate error and
residual values, the amount of load noise in the system was
varied. The 17-machine model provides a variable for this
purpose, and accepts values as the percentage of the load
to be random. This value was varied between 0.01% and
0.07% in 121 increments. The resulting noisy ringdowns were
analyzed using Pronys method for the most energetic mode
with frequency 0.4220 Hz and DR 3.63%. Table I presents all
of the modes used in the 17-machine model.
For each noise level, Prony analysis with model order 24
was performed to obtain modal frequency and DR estimates
for each trial of a Monte Carlo simulation. These estimates
were then compared to the actual values used by the model
to obtain root mean squared error (RMSE) values. Because
the true mode values were available during this portion of the
Fig. 1. One-line diagram of the 17-machine model courtesy of [21].
TABLE I
MODE FREQUENCY AND DAMPING RATIO VALUES OF THE 17-MACHINE
MODEL
Frequency (Hz) Damping Ratio (%)
0.3180 10.7439
0.4220 3.6276
0.6349 3.9354
0.6730 7.6336
0.8111 4.4558
0.9125 8.1418
development, it will be referred to as the known model case.
After each Prony analysis, the ringdown used for analysis was
reconstructed using (3). The reconstructed ringdown was used
to calculate residual values.
When the simulation for each noise level was complete,
mode estimate error and residual outliers beyond three stan-
dard deviations of the mean were removed in an iterative
process which was repeated four times. With outliers re-
moved, plots relating mode estimate error and residual metrics
were constructed and revealed a distinctly linear relationship.
Representative graphs exhibiting this linear relationship are
presented in Section IV.
Linear regressions were then applied to the data points used
to construct these plots such that

f,S
MAX
= m
f,S
MAX
S
MAX
(7)

f,S
RMS
= m
f,S
RMS
S
RMS
(8)

,S
MAX
= m
f,S
MAX
S
MAX
(9)

,S
RMS
= m
,S
RMS
S
RMS
(10)
where
(f,)
is the modal frequency RMSE in Hz,
(,)
is the
DR RMSE in percent, m
,
is the slope specic to the mode
estimate error and residual type denoted by its subscripts,
and S
MAX
and S
RMS
are as dened in (5) and (6). The
slopes produced by the regressions quantied the relationship
between each of the four combinations of mode error type
(frequency and damping ratio) and residual metric (maximum
and RMS) because all y-intercepts were quite close to zero.
These characteristic slopes were also used to develop a method
for predicting mode estimate error from residual values.
B. Mode Estimate Error Prediction
The end goal in mode estimate error prediction is to provide
a method for evaluating the reliability of mode frequency and
DR estimates produced while monitoring a power system. To
substantiate the viability of the method, it was developed for
the 17-machine model before being applied to measurement
data.
In developing the method for the 17-machine model, it was
required that the model be used in a way that reected the
constraints of analyzing a real-world system. As such, the 17-
machine model was used as an unknown system. True mode
values were not available to develop the characteristic slope.
This portion of the development will therefore be referred to
as the unknown model case.
Along with lack of access to true mode values, real-
world systems provide only one ringdown for analysis and
do not allow for adjustment of load noise. These factors
made it impossible to determine the characteristic slope in
the manner described in the previous section. As a substitute
for load noise, white Gaussian measurement noise was added
to the initial ringdown (from now on termed the reference
ringdown) in varying amounts to create a noisy ringdown.
This had the effect of increasing mode estimate error and
residual values, allowing estimation of the characteristic slope
that related these parameters.
Of course, mode estimate error cannot be calculated without
knowledge of the true modes. Instead, pseudo mode error
was calculated as the difference between the mode estimates
at a given measurement noise level and the reference mode
estimates obtained by applying Prony analysis to the reference
ringdown. The model order for the Prony analysis was again
24. Residuals were calculated in the same manner described
in the previous section and (4).
The reference ringdown was constructed with load noise
equal to 0.02% of the load power. From this point, pseudo
mode estimate errors and residuals were calculated for 50
measurement noise levels. Measurement noise levels were
chosen to correspond to signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) evenly
dispersed between 15 and 40 dB. Using such large amounts
of noise required an adjustment to the method.
When the method was applied to the ringdown in the known
model case, approximately 30 seconds or ringdown data was
analyzed. In the unknown model case, only the rst 15 seconds
was used. This ad hoc method was implemented to compensate
for the large amounts of measurement noise being added
to the ringdown. The large noise component had the effect
of skewing residual values in the low-amplitude section of
the ringdown. This procedure greatly improved results, but a
further investigation into its practice is needed.
For each noise level, a 500 trial Monte Carlo simulation was
performed to obtain mean values for pseudo mode estimate
error and residual metrics. The random component for each of
the trials was the measurement noise. Outliers were removed
and linear regressions were applied to the resulting data for
each of these trials. The results revealed a linear relationship
between pseudo mode estimate error and residual metrics.
However, the y-intercepts were now far from zero.
Mode estimate error and residuals should approach zero
together because mode estimates are used to reconstruct the
ringdown. Thus, the y-intercepts observed when true mode
values were available were near zero. As would be expected,
using mode estimates instead of true values for reference
introduced a vertical shift. Therefore, the ordered pairs of
pseudo mode error and residuals represented a segment of
the actual linear relationship with a useful slope and a y-
intercept that accounted for initial mode estimate errors. These
slopes were used to predict mode estimate RMSE through the
generalization of (7) through (10).
= m S (11)
where subscripts denoting mode estimate error type and resid-
ual type have been removed for simplicity.
To evaluate the ability of the method to predict frequency
and DR RMSE for a real-world system, the actual RMSE
values were compared with predictions from the known model
and unknown model cases. The encouraging results obtained
from this comparison are presented in Section IV.
IV. METHOD DEVELOPMENT RESULTS
In establishing the relationship between mode estimate error
and residuals, plots such as Figs. 2 and 3 were constructed.
These plots present the data points collected as the load noise
within the 17-machine model was varied. They also show
the trend line that was t to these data points to obtain a
characteristic slope. Similar results were obtained regardless
of which of the metrics for residuals described by (5) and (6)
was used.
The correlation coefcients describing the linearity of the
relationships between all four combinations of mode error
type (frequency and DR) and residual metric (maximum and
RMS) are presented in Table II. These values are all quite
close to unity and indicate that the relationship between mode
estimate error and residuals is linear. In comparing correlation
coefcients obtained using maximum and RMS residual, it is
clear that there is no advantage to using one over the other.
The difference between maximum and RMS residual plots is
simply scaling.
The data presented in Table III show that, as noted earlier,
y-intercepts for trend lines relating mode estimate error and
residuals were found to be close to zero. It was this nding that
led to their exclusion when estimating error in mode estimates.
Experiments on the 17-machine model that examined the
plausibility of estimating mode errors in a real-world scenario
resulted in Figs. 4 and 5. These gures compare actual
Fig. 2. Frequency error relationship for the 0.4220 Hz mode. Less than 1%
of residual values and less than 5% of mode error values were removed as
outliers before creating the plot and tting the trend line.
Fig. 3. DR error relationship for the 0.4220 Hz mode. Less than 1% of
residual values and less than 5% of mode error values were removed as outliers
before creating the plot and tting the trend line.
TABLE II
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR LINEAR REGRESSIONS APPLIED TO
ERROR RELATIONSHIPS FROM THE 17-MACHINE MODEL
Relationship Correlation Coefcient

Freq
S
MAX
0.996

Freq
S
RMS
0.996

Damp
S
MAX
0.994

Damp
S
RMS
0.994
TABLE III
Y-INTERCEPTS FROM LINEAR REGRESSIONS APPLIED TO ERROR
RELATIONSHIPS FROM THE 17-MACHINE MODEL
Relationship Y-Intercept

Freq
S
MAX
0.098 10
3
Hz

Freq
S
RMS
0.126 10
3
Hz

Damp
S
MAX
0.186 10
3
%

Damp
S
RMS
0.243 10
3
%
Fig. 4. Actual and estimated frequency RMSE values for a range of load
noise levels. Less than 1% of residual values and less than 5% of mode error
values were removed as outliers before creating the plot.
Fig. 5. Actual and estimated DR RMSE values for a range of load noise
levels. Less than 1% of residual values and less than 5% of mode error values
were removed as outliers before creating the plot.
mode error with estimates generated in the known model and
unknown model cases. Again, the unknown model case rep-
resents real-world limitations. Characteristic slope estimates
were rst obtained using the method described for each case.
These slopes were then used to estimate mode error for
several different levels of load noise. Figs. 4 and 5 reveal
that the estimates obtained under real-world circumstances
provide valuable approximations of the actual RMSE. Table
IV presents the slopes obtained for each case and allows for
direct comparison of the results. As can be seen, correspond-
ing slopes are comparable and consequently produce similar
RMSE estimates.
V. APPLICATION TO MEASUREMENT DATA
With the results indicating that mode error can be suc-
cessfully estimated using a characteristic slope developed
TABLE IV
ERROR RELATIONSHIP SLOPES FOR THE 17-MACHINE MODEL
Relationship
Known Model Unknown Model
per p.u.(MW) per p.u.(MW)

Freq
S
MAX
0.011 10
3
Hz 0.009 10
3
Hz

Freq
S
RMS
0.032 10
3
Hz 0.025 10
3
Hz

Damp
S
MAX
2.165 10
3
% 1.910 10
3
%

Damp
S
RMS
6.446 10
3
% 5.211 10
3
%
Fig. 6. Measurement data from the August 10, 1996 breakup of the wNAPS.
This dataset is courtesy of Bonneville Power Administration.
from an initially noisy ringdown, the method was applied
to measurement data from the wNAPS. One channel of MW
measurements from the breakup of the wNAPS on August 10,
1996, courtesy of Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), is
presented in Fig. 6. The average component has been removed
to protect the data. The unstable oscillation growth presented
in Fig. 6 has been used to identify that a mode around 0.25
Hz caused the system breakup [23].
Three channels of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data
were analyzed using Prony analysis with model order 24. The
time duration was 18.5 seconds, and the starting point was
786.7 seconds in the timescale presented in Fig. 6. Recall that
only the large-amplitude portion of the ringdown was used
to compensate for the large amounts of measurement noise
being added to the ringdown. This analysis produced a mode
estimate with a 0.220 Hz frequency and -5.106% damping.
These values were used for reference as measurement noise
was added to the data. Linear regressions with the correlation
coefcients presented in Table V were t to the resulting data
to establish the relationship between mode error and residuals.
The error in the initial estimates was then estimated using
the described method. The calculated slopes, residual metric
values, and resulting error estimates are presented in Table
VI. For example, the last row of Table VI indicates that when
using the RMS residual metric, the estimated RMSE in the
-5.106% damping estimate is 0.317%.
TABLE V
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR LINEAR REGRESSIONS APPLIED TO
ERROR RELATIONSHIPS FROM MEASUREMENT DATA
Relationship Correlation Coefcient

Freq
S
MAX
0.998

Freq
S
RMS
0.998

Damp
S
MAX
0.995

Damp
S
RMS
0.996
TABLE VI
ERROR RELATIONSHIP RESULTS FOR MEASUREMENT DATA
Relationship Slope
Residual RMSE
(MW) Estimate

Freq
S
MAX
0.02410
3 Hz
MW
28.173 0.66410
3
Hz

Freq
S
RMS
0.07210
3 Hz
MW
9.939 0.71110
3
Hz

Damp
S
MAX
0.011
%
MW
28.173 0.296%

Damp
S
RMS
0.032
%
MW
9.939 0.317%
VI. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK
In this paper, the linear relationship between mode estimate
error and residual values was established. Knowledge of this
relationship is valuable in model validation efforts because it
allows for an assumption about mode estimate error based on
residual values. Application of the method to eld measure-
ment data provides valuable information about mode estima-
tion accuracy. The ability to establish a distinct relationship
between mode error and residual values for each dominant
mode in a power system would help place appropriate levels
of condence in their estimates. In particular, damping ratio
RMSE estimates could be used to inform system operators
of how close a modes damping can approach zero before
conclusions about system stability become unreliable.
Future work will be focused on validating the methods
application to eld measurement data and extending analysis
beyond the highest energy mode. Much work exists before
the ndings presented in this paper could be applied to actual
system monitoring applications, but they do indicate that such
an application is plausible.
VII. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors gratefully acknowledge Mr. William Mittel-
stadt, Dr. John Hauer, and Dr. Dan Trudnowski for their helpful
discussions and support.
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Jim Follum (S10) received the B.S. degree in electrical engineering from the
University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY in 2011. He interned with the Pacic
Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA as a research assistant from
June to August 2010. After completing a second internship there from May
to August 2011, he will return to the University of Wyoming in pursuit of the
Ph.D. in electrical engineering. His research interests include power system
stability and signal processing.
Ning Zhou (S01- M05- SM08) received his B.S. and M.S. degrees in
automatic control from the Beijing Institute of Technology in 1992 and
1995, respectively. In 2005, he received his Ph.D. in EE with a minor in
statistics from the University of Wyoming. From 1995-2000 Ning worked
as an assistant professor in the Automatic Control Department at Beijing
Institute of Technology. He is currently with the Pacic Northwest National
Laboratory as a power system engineer. Ning is a senior member of the IEEE
Power Engineering Society (PES). His research interests include power system
dynamics and statistical signal processing.
John W. Pierre (S86-M86-S87-M91-SM99) received the B.S. degree
in electrical engineering with a minor in economics from Montana State
University, Bozeman, in 1986 and the M.S. degree in electrical engineering
with a minor in statistics and the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from
the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, in 1989 and 1991, respectively.
He worked as an Electrical Design Engineer at Tektronix before attending the
University of Minnesota. Since 1992, he has been a Professor at the University
of Wyoming (UW), Laramie, in the Electrical and Computer Engineering
Department. He served as Interim Department Head from 2003 to 2004. For
part of his 2007-2008 sabbatical, he worked at Pacic Northwest National
Laboratory, Richland, WA, and Montana Tech, Butte. His research interests
include statistical signal processing applied to power systems as well as DSP
education.
Dr. Pierre received UWs College of Engineering Graduate Teaching and
Research Award in 2005. He is a member of the IEEE Signal Processing,
Education, and Power Engineering Societies.