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Vanguard Markets features unbiased, in-depth coverage of corporate and market developments across a wide range of
business sectors.
Every week, Vanguard Markets delivers
essential business analysis and commentary on Nigerian companies, regional economies, and global markets.
Vanguard Markets is published by Vanguard Media Limited
in association with Customs Street Advisors Limited, a specialist communications consultancy.
Vanguard Markets features unbiased, in-depth coverage of corporate and market developments across a wide range of
business sectors.
Every week, Vanguard Markets delivers
essential business analysis and commentary on Nigerian companies, regional economies, and global markets.
Vanguard Markets is published by Vanguard Media Limited
in association with Customs Street Advisors Limited, a specialist communications consultancy.
Vanguard Markets features unbiased, in-depth coverage of corporate and market developments across a wide range of
business sectors.
Every week, Vanguard Markets delivers
essential business analysis and commentary on Nigerian companies, regional economies, and global markets.
Vanguard Markets is published by Vanguard Media Limited
in association with Customs Street Advisors Limited, a specialist communications consultancy.
frst data set of growth rates since the country rebased its gross domestic product (GDP) in April. It reviews downward the 2013 national growth rate by 1.9 per cent from 7.4 per cent to 5.5 per cent. A careful study of the data confrms the maxim that the higher up the national GDP goes, the cooler the growth rate becomes. Bis- marck Rewane, chief execu- tive of Financial Derivatives, a consulting frm, observed said that it is much easier to grow when you are small than when you are big. But the downward revision of the countrys growth is not the real story. That lies in the interesting trends revealed by the data. Demographics is King Yvonne Mhango, sub-Sa- haran Africa economist at Re- naissance Capital, in a report Nigerias GDP: Bigger but Slower points out that the data shows the nuggets in the Ni- gerian economy are not to be found in the oil and telecoms sectors as generally presumed. Instead, they are in manufac- turing, specifcally food, ce- ment, and textile, as well as real estate. These are poised to beneft from the countrys booming population, and growing mid- dle class. Despite the chal- lenges faced in the power sec- tor, manufacturing recorded solid growth of 22 per cent or a good one-third of total revised growth. This indicates the huge demand and market size for producers in these benefciary sectors. For example, the food, beverages, and tobacco subsec- tor grew to 12 per cent or al- most half of total manufactur- ing quota - in 2013 from 7 per cent in the preceding year. Real estate is another dy- namic sector. This should come as no surprise. Although it is generally agreed that valu- ations are excessive there is no debate that the rate of develop- ment in its cities is phenom- enal. Cement, which makes up 1 per cent of GDP, grew by 25 percent from 14 per cent in 2012 to 39 per cent in 2013. This is in line with growth rates of 14.2 per cent in the construction sector against 9.4 percent in 2012, and 12 per cent in the real estate sector versus 5.6 percent in the pre- vious year. The take-of of the Nigerian Mortgage Refnance Corporation (NMRC) and the passing of the Pension Law Reform will give added fllip to home ownership in coming years further boosting the sec- tor and its contribution to GDP growth. Not so fast Mhango is clear that tele- coms growth is in the past and the sector has matured. The issue the GSM compa- nies are facing is a structural one, not one of tightening in disposable income as many commentators have noted about the brewery sector. Ni- gerians is a phone-saturated country. Beyond the din and ambiance of indistinguish- able promos, most subscribers simply ignore the confusing menu of packages cast before them. In 2013, MTN, the mar- ket leader, added 9.3 million new subscribers but managed to grow revenues only by 5.7 per cent in the face of what the company describes as aggres- sive competition and a difcult operating environment. This may have an unin- tended consequence. If growth is indeed slowing in the sector it means that there are fewer places to invest the huge rev- enues being generated by these companies. Therefore, the demand by Arunma Oteh, director-general of the Securi- ties and Exchange Commis- sion, and Oscar Onyeama, her counterpart at the Nigerian Stock Exchange, that these companies be compelled to list makes a lot more sense. Slow- ing growth is evidence that companies in the sector are transitioning into the cash-cow phase, aka dividend distribu- tion era. This will be a good thing. Any cause for alarm? According to DaMina Ad- visors, a London-based risk research, and consulting frm, the decline is not good news coming on the heels of growing concern over the spread of the Boko Haram terrorist threat to the commercial capital of Lagos. DaMina analysts do not be- lieve that a 4.5 per cent growth rate is unthinkable. If the for- eign share of transactions on the NSE drop below the cur- rent 45 per cent suggesting capital fight, it will remove the cushion undergirding the high speculative forward price earn- ings multiples of many listed Nigerian companies. This could happen if a combination of prolonged anaemic econom- ic growth stagnation, falling oil exports, a fast depleted forex reserve stock and declining eq- uity market valuations, which may be more proximate than is currently apparent. For the countrys policy-makers, the gallows consolation is that foreign investors looking for sub-Saharan exposure have few alternative choices. With a 2013 growth rate of 1.9 per cent, South Africa holds little attraction, and the prosperity of a growing number of region- al economies are tightly corre- lated with Nigerias. Vanguard Markets | Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 INTERVIEW A cerebral approach to transactions at Olaniwun Ajayi LP ! Deal Engineer - page 3 C-SUITE Fixed Income & Forex Inside Your listing or your life A proposed bill to compel companies with either more than N40 billion in share- holders funds or over N80 billion in assets to list on the NSE raises serious questions. ! Page 2 Back on the throne Jim Ovia, founder of Zenith Bank, has resumed as chairman of Zenith Bank. This comes as no surprise to many who knew it was only a matter of time before he re- turned to what many call the Goldman Sachs of Nigeria. ! Page 2 Crossed ngers for Q2 earnings Companies are set to begin releasing second quarter results. What lies in store? ! Page 6 Manufacturing roars ahead 0B 10.0 10.0 04/07 07/07 07/07 14/07 15/07 15/07 17/07 18/07 18/07 09/07 10/07 10/07 100B 12.0 15.0 14.0 75B 11.5 13.0 50B 11.0 12.0 25B 10.5 11.0 FGNBonds &TBills NITTY NIBOR FGN Bonds Treasury Bills O/N 1M 3M 6M Wolemi Esan 161.5 07/07 15/07 18/07 10/07 163.0 162.7 162.4 162.1 161.8 FX ($/N) Source: FMDQ Bid Ask 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 12M African wax fabrics mill Source: shaddersafrica.com 3% 12 13 14f 15f 16f 7% 6% 5% 4% Annual GDP Growth Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria 4% 11 12 13 8% 7% 6% 5% Real GDP Growth Source: World Bank Source: National Bureau of Statistic, Central Bank of Nigeria Old GDP Series New GDP Series INSIGHT 2 JAYWALKER RESHUFFLE VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 Listing by Order Early this month, a bill in- troduced by Hon. Chris Az- ubogu, APGA - Nnewi North / South and Ekwusigo, to compel companies with assets worth more than N80 billion or shareholders funds that exceed N40 billion to list on the Nigerian Stock Exchange passed 2nd reading. In the past, similar calls for such ob- ligatory initial public oferings have come from voices as di- verse as labour unions, retail shareholder associations, and market regulators. In the view of Hon. Ek- wusigo the bill would assist the companies to raise cheap funds in contrast to bank loans and the concomitant high interest rates. Supported by Leo Ogor, PDP Isoko North/ Isoko South, the Dep- uty House Leader, he argued that if passed the bill would enable more Nigerians to par- ticipate in the upside of the national economy. Hon. Fort Dike, PDP Ihia- la, disagrees with this position. Known for speaking his mind, he stated that the proposed law is anti-business because it will be in confict with the general ideas of investment in the country and make the par- liament look like it lacks busi- ness knowledge. The decision to list should be at the sole discretion of boards, who owe allegiance to the best interests of their shareholders, employees, and customers. Perhaps, the de- bate should be inverted. In- stead of companies that fall within these arbitrary catego- ries being forced to list and pe- nalized for not doing so, they should be given incentives for doing so. Taking the arguments pre- sented by sponsors of the bill, each one can be disputed with sufcient points. There are material nuances to consider in the determina- tion of whether a company should raise capital through debt or equity. In the same vein, the arithmetic on which is cheaper is not so simple. Let us not forget that for many companies of this size, they can raise ofshore loans that are signifcantly cheaper than the exorbitantly priced funds available locally. Companies could also put up a credible argument that so long as they pay their taxes to government it is not their duty to provide gangways to vessels of eco- nomic participation. Moreo- ver, a lot of the talk on broad- ening economic participation often gives the impression that it is mainly about giving retail shareholders access to wider stock portfolio choices. This is a paradox in an age when deretailization is a secu- lar trend. Finally, while it is not proclaimed there is a risk that foreign companies might see themselves as the main target of the law. If this is true it sends the wrong signal at a sensitive time. Companies do rationale things. If it makes solid busi- ness sense for them to ap- proach the market, they will not hesitate to do so. Besides, if the so-called cheapness of equity is not undisputed, what are the other gains for companies that are not in dire need of capital when they list their shares? This is where the proponents need to do more homework in building their case. Then what if the market sen- timent is not right at the time a qualifying company crosses the threshold? Assuming that investors are cool toward the sector for any number of rea- sons, should executives and their investment bankers not retain the prerogative to de- cide the most opportune time to sell shares at at a good valu- ation? This is not to say that the idea wholly lacks merit. There are a good number of local and foreign companies in Nigeria whose presence on the bourse would enhance risk diversif- cation and boost income for investors. A few local success stories come readily to mind though they may not meet the 40:80 threshold (N40 billion in shareholders funds and N80 billion in total assets). The Sahara Group, South Atlantic Petroleum Limited (SAPETRO), Folawiyo Group, Arik Air, BUA Group, Tastee Fried Chicken, CHI Farms, Obasanjo Farms, CHISCO Transport, and the Lekki Con- cession Company to name a few. For the foreign compa- nies they are numerous poten- tial candidates. In the end, it should not be forgotten that in a bid to achieve a good end the welfare of Nigerians should be fore- most. With teams of lawyers, tax consultants, and consult- ants, big companies that are determined to bypass the law would fnd innovative ways to restructure their operations so that they will always stay a few inches below the imposed ceil- ing. This is the time for wider consultation and not populist sentiment. ; In January 2010, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, issued a directive that required all bank chief executives that had served for up to 10 years to leave their positions by the end of July that year. Those afected were Jim Ovia at Zenith Bank, Tony Elumelu at United Bank for Africa, and Akinsola Akinfemiwa at Skye Bank. They were barred from returning to the boards of the fnancial institutions for 3 years. Four years later, each of these men have reinvented themselves. Tony Elumelu sits atop HEIRS Holdings that has interests in agriculture, hospitality, power and real estate, Akinsola Akinfemiwa is the chairman of Heritage Bank, and Jim Ovia, has had a good run in every race he has deemed to enter since from philanthropy to telecoms, and real estate. In a testament to the suc- cession planning at Zenith Bank, the board announced his successor, Godwin Eme- fele, the current CBN gover- nor, less than a week after the directive was made public. Tolu Ogunlesi, a social com- mentator, describes him as having the knack for living beneath the radar, and es- chewing the barefaced capi- talist aggression of many of his billionaire colleagues, which ensures that he mostly stays out of controversy. This week it was announced that the CBN had approved his nomination as chairman of the bank he founded more than 20 years ago. As chairman, Ovia will not be part of the day-to- day running of the bank, whose motto is In your best interest. Rather, he will be charged with setting the tone of its strategic direction at a time of thinning margins and higher costs. Al- ways the biggest individual shareholder of the bank, Ovia would not be dismayed at the excellent job his protgs have done in his absence. The new chairman has a strong passion for informa- tion and communications technology. He serves as the president of the Nigerian In- ternet Group. He is also the proprietor of the University of Information and Commu- nication Technology, Agbor, Delta State, where he hails from. Born on November 4, 1951, Ovia began his professional career in 1980 at IMB, a merchant bank. Seven years later, he had risen to head the banks corporate fnance de- partment. In 1990, he set out to start Zenith Bank. He is also the chairman of Quantum Luxury Prop- erties Limited, and a sits on the board of the Africa Finance Corporation. He is a Member of the Order of Federal Republic (MFR), a national honour. He holds a B.Sc. degree in Business Administration from the Southern University, Loui- siana (1977), and a masters degree in Business Adminis- tration from the University of Louisiana (1979), both in the United States. He is an alumnus of Harvard Busi- ness Schools Owner/Presi- dent Management (OPM) program. ; Obiora Onyeaso obiora.onyeaso@customsstreet.com Should companies be forced to list their shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange based on arbitrary numbers such the size of shareholders funds and the value of assets? The matter is not so straightforward. FY 2013 (N Bn) Gross Earnings 335.27 Net interest income 189.26 Operating income 264.47 PBT 110.60 PAT 95.32 EPS 3.01 Zenith Bank 2013 Results Source: Nigerian Stock Exchange The Godfather Returns Aerial view of the Civic Centre and the Civic Centre Towers, two iconic prime properties in Jim Ovias real estate portfolio Source: skyscrapercity.com A.P. Mller Mrsk, the shipping line and terminals operator, could be obliged to list on the NSE of our lawyers as trusted advisors and enablers of transactions, not academics. We are known to take a commercial, business driven approach to law. If you look at the profles of our lawyers, you will fnd that a number of our lawyers have MBAs, and one of our partners is currently pursuing a DBA. We are constantly at work thinking up new ways of solving clients problems. What is OAs client solving approach? We believe our clients come to us for cutting-edge solutions to intricate legal problems. We also believe that each matter needs a mul- tifaceted approach to fnd the best solution. According- ly, whatever the nature of the instruction, we are insistent on a cross-functional, rigor- ous approach when explor- ing solutions for our clients. We discourage silo thinking here. For instance, if a bank- ing client has a pending case we will pool resources from our litigation, and banking practices to brainstorm on the matter. Throughout the process we maintain open communications with the cli- ent. This helps in developing our case management strat- egy, which is compiled in a single document for easy ref- erence when needed by new team members. In spite of the govern- ments eforts to draw in private sector partici- pation into power and infrastructure there is a strong residue of public distrust and resentment over the privatization of common assets. What is your view? One thing we can all agree on is that the govern- ment has no business being in business. That said, it is understandable that when people do not fully appreci- ate the constraints faced by the government in funding costly, large-scale socially benefcial projects like power and infrastructure all by it- self, and the attendant op- portunity cost, there is a ten- dency to leap to wholesale condemnation of privatiza- tion. Knowing the magnitude of competing demands faced by state and federal govern- ments, I will say that privati- zations, PPPs, and similar arrangements ultimately serve the public good when properly structured. That the government and sponsors do not always do a good job of communicating the ration- ale of these sales, cannot be an indictment of the ethos of these arrangements. Let us not forget that these same arrangements were the bat- tering rams used to disman- tle the inefcient monopolies enjoyed by state-sponsored companies in the past. The choices and convenience they have brought have been a great service. For example, we all remember the bu- reaucracy Nigerians sufered under NITEL until the GSM licenses were sold. When we take out sentiment, what we fnd is that, when properly executed, deregulation and indeed, privatisation, has the potential to deliver benefts at lower costs to taxpayers and customers. Sector-wise, does the work-mix at the frm evolve with trends in the economy? As a full service frm, we receive instructions in both contentious, that is, litigious, and non-contentious, that is, advisory, matters from our clients. Naturally, most of our advisory work, be- ing transaction-driven will refect the push-and-pull of economic forces. For exam- ple, during the banking con- solidation round of 2004-5, we worked with over 60% of the fnancial institutions. Again, in 2009, during the Central Banks banking sec- tor intervention we worked closely with the regulator to assure fnancial system sta- bility. As situations arise, we adapt and ft in, whilst retaining our core essence. It is the only way for a frm to remain relevant and indeed thrive. What recent global M&A transaction would you have liked to work on? That would have to be the aborted Pfzer-AstraZen- eca combination. The sheer scale of the two companies global operations, multiple regulatory jurisdictions, and the size of the ofer gave it all the tantalizing features of a transformational deal on so many levels. In the end, AstraZeneca shrugged of the suitors ofers, and Pfzer chose not to launch a hostile takeover for AstraZeneca. If it had gone on a full of- fensive, one would have liked to see the creative defensive structures that AstraZenecas lawyers would put in place. It would have been the stuf of case-study dreams for years to come. I would have liked to work on this deal advising the sell side. ; What is your role at the frm? Until recently, I was part of the Firms Specialized Trans- actions Practice. Essentially, the practice deals with the most innovative transactions in the market. Its respon- sibility is to craft bespoke solutions to situations that often have no precedent in market. For instance, on one occasion we had a client who needed fnancing to develop its upstream petroleum as- set. After we considered a number of options, we set- tled on a forward sale struc- ture, whereby we presold the crude reserves to raise the necessary funds needed to exploit its proven reserves. Putting together deals of this nature is what our Special- ized Transactions Practice is known for. Then about two years ago, I moved to the Power & In- frastructure Practice, and as the name suggests, the practice focuses on two key sectors of the economy, in which we are privileged to frequently attract the top mandates. Only last year, during the privatization of the Power Holding Com- pany of Nigeria, Olaniwun Ajayi LP advised on 9 out of the 15 privatized assets. We have also been advising on the Azura-Edo Independ- ent Power Project, which is widely regarded as the tem- plate for future IPP develop- ment projects in these parts. On the infrastructure side, we are also working with a client on the development of a deep seaport to serve Ni- gerias burgeoning maritime needs as well as a number of other major PPP deals. What qualities charac- terise Olaniwun Ajayi? I would say our bias for technical, intellectually demanding high-end work. Olaniwun Ajayis reputation is not built on the solicitation of vanilla-category briefs. We push the envelope of the law. We advised on the frst Liquefed Natural Gas project, the frst utility scale Independent Power Project, the frst bond issuance by International Finance Corporation and so on. We do not see ourselves in the narrow sense of passive dispensers of legal opinion. Instead, we like to think INTERVIEW 3 DEAL ENGINEER Wolemi Esan Partner, Power & Infrastructure Practice, Olaniwun Ajayi LP About the Firm D Founded: 1962 0 Number of Partners: 8 B Number of Associates: 65 Education University College, London (UCL) Master of Laws (LLM) Lagos State University Bachelor of Laws (LL.B.), Law Recent transactions Advised on the US$3.15 billion nancing of Dangote Industries Limited for the development of a 400,000bpd renery Advising on the US$1.5 billion nancing of the development of a deep seaport in Lagos, Nigeria Advised on the US$1.2 billion - nancing of the development of a fertilizer plant in Eleme, Rivers State Advising on the on-going devel- opment of the greeneld Azura- Edo IPP, a c. 459MW open cycle gas-red plant in Edo State Advised on the US$500 million nancing of an international ship- ping conglomerate for the expan- sion of its vessel portfolio Wolemi Esan is a partner in Olaniwun Ajayi LPs Power and Infrastructure Practice. He has done extensive work with private companies and public agencies in a variety of situations that cut across his core practice area, and other expert verticals. He has a strong background in financial matters, and is widely acknowledged as a leading authority in derivatives and securitization in the Nigerian securities market. VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 Olaniwun Ajayi law firm library Our bias for technical, intellectually demanding high-end work sets Olaniwun Ajayi apart. Our clients come to us for cutting- edge solutions to intricate legal problems. MARKET DATA 4 MARKET SNAPSHOT 3-MONTH PRICE TREND OF BELLWETHER STOCKS LEGEND ACCESS 9.80 11.31 7.22 PE 6.01 0.00 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F CADBURY 74.25 98.35 58.27 PE 24.50 0.00 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F DANGCEM 240.05 250.02 185.00 PE 20.26 0.95 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F DANGSUGAR 9.30 12.45 8.67 PE 10.33 0.20 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F FLOURMILL 77.87 91.85 63.91 PE 26.76 0.13 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F FO 238.00 259.94 27.06 PE 55.09 3.94 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F GLAXOSMITH 68.99 71.44 53.06 PE 22.62 0.01 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F GUARANTY 30.00 31.80 22.67 PE 9.34 0.03 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F NASCON 10.72 15.10 10.20 PE 10.51 0.68 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F NB 175.61 189.00 140.00 PE 30.38 1.18 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F NESTLE 1125.00 1250.00 916.00 PE 40.06 15.00 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F OANDO 25.00 36.89 9.32 PE 5.45 2.99 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F TOTAL 180.00 188.58 146.26 PE 11.46 8.95 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F TRANSCORP 5.91 5.95 1.17 PE 48.56 0.11 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F UACN 62.12 71.20 53.23 PE 21.32 0.53 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F UBA 8.06 9.58 6.65 PE 5.37 0.21 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F DIAMONDBNK 6.32 8.00 5.86 PE 3.20 0.08 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F FBNH 15.90 18.93 11.50 PE 7.71 0.33 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F FCMB 4.26 4.90 3.01 PE 5.16 0.11 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F FIDELITYBK 1.94 3.10 1.85 PE 7.28 0.06 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F GUINNESS 198.02 266.70 162.00 PE 24.96 6.98 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F INTBREW 29.50 31.00 18.00 PE 32.80 0.00 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F JBERGER 63.00 76.45 59.18 PE 10.31 5.05 May June M 14/07 T W T F 18/07 MANSARD 2.67 2.73 1.95 PE 14.05 0.15 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F PZ 38.50 47.06 30.08 PE 31.36 1.75 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F SKYEBANK 3.40 4.90 3.19 PE 2.81 0.13 May June M 18/07 T W T F 14/07 STANBIC 27.26 27.50 15.39 PE 14.66 0.21 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F STERLNBANK 2.38 2.92 2.09 PE 4.58 0.07 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F UBN 9.23 12.80 8.10 PE 20.45 0.42 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F UNILEVER 52.77 65.00 43.32 PE 41.55 1.27 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F WAPCO 119.01 136.73 87.50 PE 12.63 6.98 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F ZENITHBANK 25.22 27.40 19.23 PE 8.72 0.21 May June M 14/07 18/07 T W T F April May June M 16/06 20/06 T W T F TICKER 9.80 11.79 7.22 PE 6.24 0.05 1 3 4 9 10 5 6 8 11 7 2 1. 52-week low price 2. Year Low Price 3. Current price 4. Year High Price 5. 52-week high price 6. Current price 7. 5-Day Price Change 8. PE Ratio 9. Daily Prive Movement over 3 months. 10. 30-Day Moving Average 11. Daily Price Movement over Last Week MOBIL WEMABANK NPFMCRFBK WAPCO MANSARD FIDSON TOTAL PAINTCOM PZ WAPIC OANDO COSTAIN RTBRISCOE JBERGER NIGERINS NASCON CONOIL UPDCREIT DNMEYER TRIPPLEG MOST GAINED & DECLINED 20.16% 13.27% 12.24% 6.23% 5.95% 5.33% 5.23% 5.00% 4.76% 4.65% -10.68% -8.03% -7.89% -7.42% -7.41% -5.96% -5.00% -4.97% -4.76% -4.57% INDEX DAILY MOVEMENT Mo Fr 42.70 42.80 43.00 42.90 43.10 42,891.82 Tu We Th Fr NSEASI Mo Fr 0.437 0.439 0.443 0.441 0.445 438.71 Tu We Th Fr NSEBNK Mo Fr 10.45 10.49 10.57 10.53 10.61 1,059.78 Tu We Th Fr NSECNSMRGDS Mo Fr 0.465 0.470 0.480 0.475 0.485 469.09 Tu We Th Fr NSEOILGAS VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 MARKET SNAPSHOT MARKET DATA 5 CURRENCY CROSS RATES Currency codes/ names United Kingdom Pound Euro Japanese Yen Swiss Franc US Dollar CFA Franc BCEAO CFA Franc BEAC Chinese Yuan Renminbi Ghanaian New Cedi Hong Kong Dollar Nigerian Naira Saudi Riyal South African Rand US Dollar Utd. Arab Emir. Dirham GBP 1 0.7902 0.005756 0.6506 0.5841 0.001205 0.001205 0.09476 0.172 0.07537 0.00364 0.1558 0.05466 0.5841 0.1591 EUR 1.2657 1 0.007285 0.8234 0.7393 0.001524 0.001524 0.1199 0.2177 0.09539 0.004607 0.1971 0.06918 0.7393 0.2013 JPY 173.751 137.29 1 113.038 101.488 0.2093 0.2093 16.4637 29.8845 13.094 0.6325 27.0635 9.4965 101.488 27.6361 CHF 1.5373 1.2147 0.008848 1 0.8979 0.001852 0.001852 0.1457 0.2644 0.1159 0.005596 0.2395 0.08402 0.8979 0.2445 USD 1.7121 1.3528 0.009855 1.1139 1 0.002062 0.002062 0.1622 0.2945 0.129 0.006232 0.2667 0.09357 1 0.2723 XOF 830.196 655.957 4.7785 540.106 484.897 1 1 78.6616 142.785 62.5618 3.0219 129.306 45.3732 484.897 132.042 XAF 830.196 655.957 4.7785 540.106 484.897 1 1 78.6616 142.785 62.5618 3.0219 129.306 45.3732 484.897 132.042 CNY 10.5627 8.3461 0.0608 6.8718 6.1694 0.01272 0.01272 1 1.8167 0.796 0.03845 1.6452 0.5773 6.1694 1.68 GHS 5.8899 4.6539 0.0339 3.8319 3.4402 0.007095 0.007095 0.5581 1 0.4439 0.02144 0.9174 0.3219 3.4402 0.9368 HKD 13.2706 10.4866 0.07638 8.6336 7.751 0.01598 0.01598 1.2574 2.2824 1 0.0483 2.067 0.7253 7.751 2.1107 NGN 280.072 221.298 1.612 182.208 163.583 0.3374 0.3374 26.537 48.1694 21.1056 1 43.6223 15.3069 163.583 44.5453 SAR 6.4218 5.0742 0.03696 4.1779 3.7508 0.007735 0.007735 0.6085 1.1045 0.4839 0.02338 1 0.351 3.7508 1.0214 ZAR 18.3123 14.4713 0.1054 11.9136 10.6958 0.02206 0.02206 1.7351 3.1495 1.38 0.06666 2.8522 1 10.6958 2.9126 USD 1.7121 1.3528 0.009855 1.1139 1 0.002062 0.002062 0.1622 0.2945 0.129 0.006232 0.2667 0.09357 1 0.2723 AED 6.2899 4.97 0.0362 4.0921 3.6738 0.007576 0.007576 0.596 1.0818 0.474 0.0229 0.9797 0.3438 3.6738 1 INDEX PERFORMANCE Date Week Opening Week Close Change WtD MtD QtD YtD 1 All Shares Index 42,832.82 42,891.82 59 0.14 0.96 0.96 3.78 2 NSE 30 Index 1,945.69 1,948.74 3.05 0.16 0.88 0.88 2.18 3 NSE Banking Index 438.08 438.71 0.63 0.14 1.35 1.35 -2.04 4 NSE Insurance Index 148.19 150.41 2.22 1.5 2.44 2.44 -1.61 5 NSE Consumer Goods Index 1,053.69 1,059.78 6.09 0.58 0.15 0.15 -3.68 6 NSE Oil/Gas Index 477.63 469.09 -8.54 -1.79 0.18 0.18 38.02 7 NSE Lotus Islamic Index 2,836.03 2,853.38 17.35 0.61 -0.74 -0.74 -0.34 8 NSE Industrial Index 2,705.31 2,767.11 61.8 2.28 3.76 3.76 8.66 MARKET SNAPSHOT Date Deals Turnover Volume Turnover Value Traded Stocks Advanced Stocks Declined Stocks Unchanged Stocks All Shares Index Value 1 14.07.2014 5,502 468,559,126 6,200,244,950.37 125 \ 132 27 \ 23 29 \ 30 69 \ 79 42,930.60 2 15.07.2014 5,692 251,758,465 3,003,431,717.63 114 \ 117 33 \ 27 27 \ 32 54 \ 58 42,971.56 3 16.07.2014 5,098 317,158,558 3,060,821,383.87 120 \ 122 22 \ 29 26 \ 18 72 \ 75 43,030.27 4 17.07.2014 4,904 365,252,261 4,432,207,242.48 114 \ 124 27 \ 28 25 \ 20 62 \ 76 42,918.52 5 18.07.2014 4,778 374,304,901 3,207,141,742.24 117 \ 122 34 \ 24 21 \ 31 62 \ 67 42,891.82 DATA PARTNER DATA VIZUALIZATION TRADING BREAKDOWN BY SECTOR Sector % Financial Services 73 \ 72 Conglomerates 8 \ 13 Oil & Gas 8 \ 6 Others 11 \ 9 WEEK-TO-DATE RETURN -15% -10% -40% -20% -30% -10% 0% +10% +20% +30% +40% +50% +60% +70% +80% +100% +90% +120% +130% +140% +110% +150% -5% 0% +15% +10% +5% +25% +20% Y E A R - T O - D A T E
R E T U R N LAGGING SLIPPING LEADING IMPROVING 43 44 47 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 18 19 22 25 26 27 29 31 32 34 37 1 2 4 177 20 21 24 99 30 1 33 35 38 3 39 40 16 5 45 46 41 42 44 14 11111111 23 4 11 36 28 48 # TICKER WTD YTD 1 DANGCEM -3.60 10.05 2 NB 0.54 3.89 3 GUARANTY 1.25 10.92 4 NESTLE 1.84 -7.50 5 ZENITHBANK -0.36 -8.72 6 FBNH 2.72 -0.43 7 WAPCO 0.93 -2.58 8 GUINNESS 5.55 -13.14 9 ETI -0.58 6.30 10 STANBIC 1.20 26.70 11 UBA -0.63 -11.80 12 FO 16.98 139.40 13 OANDO -1.79 15.42 14 TRANSCORP 10.69 33.33 15 ACCESS 0.93 2.08 16 UNILEVER -6.36 -4.28 17 FLOURMILL 0.00 -10.34 18 UBN 0.52 0.21 19 PZ 0.55 2.84 20 CADBURY -0.34 -9.80 21 UACN -6.68 -8.08 22 DANGSUGAR -2.15 -22.22 23 INTBREW 0.34 2.79 24 DIAMONDBNK -2.50 -15.10 25 JBERGER -1.38 3.55 26 FCMB -4.82 12.47 27 ASHAKACEM 12.24 55.07 28 GLAXOSMITH 1.47 1.47 29 7UP 0.00 43.60 30 TOTAL -0.04 0.62 31 FIDELITYBK 0.00 -25.65 32 STERLNBANK 0.43 -7.60 33 MOBIL -0.04 13.83 34 CONOIL 0.31 -3.43 35 SKYEBANK -2.10 -25.68 36 PRESCO 2.87 -1.14 37 OKOMUOIL 0.00 -25.00 38 CAP 1.30 -19.50 39 NEIMETH -8.33 -3.97 40 MAYBAKER 5.99 -27.76 41 All Shares Index -0.46 3.64 42 NSE 30 Index 0.03 2.02 43 NSE Lotus Islamic Index -0.74 -0.95 44 NSE Industrial Index -0.69 6.23 45 NSE Consumer Goods Index 0.73 -4.23 46 NSE Banking Index 0.17 -2.18 47 NSE Oil/Gas Index 4.99 40.53 48 NSE Insurance Index -0.55 -3.06 The relative size of each individual stocks bubble chart is determined by its market capitalization. For indices, the relative size of each bubble chart is the total value of the capitalization modifed values of each constituent stock. Pink bubbles represent individual stocks, and grey bubbles represent indexes. The \ arrow signifes week-on-week change in value. This weeks value is shown on the left of the \ sign, and last weeks value on the right. 2820 2825 2830 2835 2840 14/07 18/07 16/06 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 FGNBond Index Market Value YTD Return www.afrinvest.com www.customsstreet.com VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 RESEARCH Earnings Weatherman Conglomerates Analyst Coverage International Coverage Rocket Launcher Sector Company Afrinvest 12-Month Target Price Rating Banking Access Bank 11.8 ACCUMULATE Diamond Bank 11.19 BUY ETI 19.4 ACCUMULATE FBN Holdings 22.17 BUY Skye Bank 5.95 BUY Sterling Bank 3.02 BUY UBA 10.41 BUY Zenith Bank 28.88 ACCUMULATE Consumer Goods Dangote Sugar 11.97 BUY Flour Mills of Nigeria 96.20 ACCUMULATE Insurance AIICO 1.70 BUY Mansard 3.29 BUY Continental Reinsurance 1.48 BUY Custodian and Allied Insurance PLC 4.37 ACCUMULATE Oil & Gas Total 267.69 BUY It is report card time. Any time now companies are due to start releasing their half-year re- sults. If the latest results from Unilever, the consumer goods company, are anything to go by, then investors should prepare themselves for a bloody earnings season. 30-Jun-14 30-Jun-13 Change N N Revenue 29,280,133,000 29,667,942,000 -1% Cost of Sales (18,280,715,000) (18,812,681,000) -3% Distribution/ Admin and Other Expenses (8,315,277,000) (6,514,759,000) 28% Other Income 6,189,000 1,322,000 368% Financial Charges (677,846,000) -496,625,000 36% Financial Income 64,851,000 117,676,000 -45% Proft Before Tax 2,077,335,000 3,962,875,000 -48% Taxation (612,762,000) (1,222,025,000) -50% Proft After Tax 1,464,573,000 2,740,850,000 -47% In reality, pleasant earnings surprises could turn out to be the exception. Most investors expect most companies to put up a least-evil performance. The question now is whether the dampened half year re- sults will signify an isolated blip on the screen or mark a tempering of business per- formance till after the 2015 elections. Two events, both outside the control of execu- tives, constitute fies in their ointment. Political concerns about the forthcoming elec- tions, and the growing threat of Boko Haram attacks in the southern part of the country. According to DaMina Advisors, the private sector is already reeling from high operating costs due to erratic electricity supplies, and the unbudgeted costs of new security infrastructure for major airlines, telecom com- panies, banks, gas stations, commercial buildings and other manufacturing indus- tries, will erode the proft- ability of the many stressed companies. UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC UBA Capital has published a helpful calendar of dates when companies released their results in 2013. It should serve as a guide for when they are likely to announce their results. Analysts at the frm also wrote that they expect some quite impressive results from some of our preferred stocks. Companies H1 2013 Results Publication Date Current UBA Capital Target Price Current UBA Capital Rating Access Bank Aug-21 12.3 BUY Dangote Cement Jul-16 255.0 BUY Diamond Bank Jul-31 9.5 BUY FBN Holdings Aug-27 16.6 BUY Fidelity Bank Jul-26 Forte Oil Jul-26 Guaranty Bank Aug-20 Mobil Nigeria Jul-30 MRS Aug-15 Oando Aug-16 Skye Bank Jul-24 4.6 BUY Stanbic Bank Jul-30 Sterling Bank Jul-18 UBA Jul-29 Union Bank Jul-31 WAPCO Jul-29 120.0 BUY Zenith Bank Aug-15 28.0 BUY Analysts at Afrinvest have a fair quantity of BUY recommendations too. It is not often that sea- soned analysts use gushing adjectives to describe com- panies. But that is just what the analysts at Cardinal- Stone Partners have done. They describe Transcorps investment case as very compelling as it presents an excellent opportunity into Nigerias emerging utilities sector. They rate the stock a BUY with a 2014 target price of N6.62. The National Associa- tion of Securities Deal- ers (NASD) announced this week that it will provide an Equity Analyst section on its website where research reports on Over the Counter (OTC) securities will be avail- able. This is a welcome step. It is expected that the NASD will be able to attract reputa- ble analysts, and not pump- and-dump artists, to cover its companies. The NSE has had a similar relationship with Thaddeus Investment Research & Advi- sors to provide coverage for less visible companies not covered by sell-side analysts at bulge bracket frms. At the start of the year, Bola Ajomale, chief execu- tive of NASD, disclosed that it was targeting over 230 companies to be traded on its platform. In its July recommenda- tion list, Imara African Secu- rities places BUY recommen- dations on all four securities included: Access Bank, Dangote Sugar Refnery, Lafarge Cement WAPCO, and UAC. Transcorp chairman, Tony Elemelu (second from left) rings the bell at the NSE, while Obinna Ufudo, CEO, (first from left) and NSE officials applaud Satchets of Omo, a Unilever product, sold in a street corner stall At Renaissance Capital, analysts are bullish on the banking sector. All nine fnancial insti- tutions under its coverage - Access Bank, Diamond Bank, Fidelity Bank, First City Monument Bank, First Bank, GT Bank, Skye Bank, Stanbic IBTC, and Zenith Bank have BUY recommen- dations. Skye Bank has the highest price upswing potential at more than 100%. COMMENTARIAT 6 VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 Rocket Internet plans an initial public ofering in Frank- furt in the third quarter. The company behind JUMIA, the online retail store, is expected to be valued at between 3bn and 5 billion. Founded by Oliver, Alexander and Marc Samwer, three German brothers, Rocket Internet aims to become the big- gest consumer internet group outside the US and China. CORPORATES New Listing Board Changes FCMBs Consumer Lending Muscle BDC Capital Raising Helios Bond Issuance United Kingdom, 71% Europe, 16% South Africa, 8% Asia, 4% Middle East & North Africa, 4% Helios BondIssue Final Allocation Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Notore Chemical In- dustries, a nitrogenous ferti- lizer producer, plans to list its shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. According to sourc- es, the company has already approached the NSE with a formal request. Notore is the only producer of urea fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa. In November 2007, Emerg- ing Capital Partners, a pri- vate equity frm, took a stake in the company. The listing may be an avenue for it to sell down its stake. Other companies in ECPs portfolio include Continental Reinsurance and Oando. During the week, Continental Reinsurance Plc informed the NSE of a possible divestment by ECP Africa Fund II PCC and its partners (the ECP Fund II Con- sortium) of their interests in the company. ECP invested in the company in February 2007. Sterling Bank has notifed the NSE of the resignation of three of its directors. They are Alhaji (Dr.) S.A. Adegun- wa, who until his retirement served as chairman, Alhaji Bashir Borodo, OON, and Mr. Yemi Idowu. Mr. Asue Ighodalo becomes the new chairman. He is the co-found- er of Banwo and Ighodalo, a respected City law frm that enjoys long standing relation- ships with some of Nigerias biggest companies. He sits on the boards of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Dangote Flour Mills Plc, Christopher Kolade Founda- tion, FATE Foundation, Main Street Technologies Limited (sponsor of MainOne Cable Company), Union Bank (UK) Plc and Nigeria Leadership Initiative (NLI). Ighodalo is a veteran deal adviser and it would be interesting to see him put his rich experience to work at the One Customer Bank. The appointment was made at the banks board meeting held on July 8, 2014. FCMB Group plans to raise up to $300 million of funding this year to boost consumer lending by about 20 per cent to N540 billion. Ladi Balogun, the chief ex- ecutive ofcer, expressed a strong bias for tapping the loan markets as opposed to bond markets due to more stable pricing. Asue Ighodalo, chairman, Sterling Bank Ladi Balogun, Group CEO, FCMB Group Two hundred bureau-de- change have successfully raised their capital to N35 million in compliance with the new guidelines issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria. This was disclosed by God- win Emefele, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, during at a hearing before the House of Representatives Committee on Banking and Finance. In recent weeks, BDC op- erators under the aegis of the Association of Bureau De Change of Nigeria have embarked on a public aware- ness campaign and legislative lobbying to persuade the apex bank to rescind its decision. BDCs have until July 31 to meet the new capital require- ment. The CBN governor decried abuses among BDC operators whose businesses had be- come characterised by rent- seeking, weak operational structure, fnancing of illicit transactions, gradual dol- larisation of the economy and multiple ownership of BDC licences. He explained that a regu- latory overhaul is overdue to stem these abuses. Professor Akpan Ekpo, director-general of the West African Institute for Finan- cial and Economic Manage- ment (WAIFEM) has advised the regulator to tread with caution because the N35 million fgure is high, and the time window too short. These could have unplanned consequences on the stable supply of forex to businesses and individuals that need to purchase currencies for legiti- mate uses. On July 8, Helios Tow- ers Nigeria (HTN) priced a US$250m 5NC3 RegS senior unsecured high yield bond. Bank of America Merrill Lynch acted as sole bookrun- ner, lead manager and rat- ings advisor. HTN is a lead- ing telecoms towers operator in Nigeria with approximate- ly 1,200 towers across 34 out of 36 Nigerian states The company plans to use proceeds for the ofering to refnance the existing, ex- pensive senior and subordi- nated indebtedness, as well as extend the companys debt maturity profle, optimize its capital structure and estab- lish a liquid benchmark for the companys future debt raisings. The bond sale is historic in a number of ways. It is the frst time that a non-commodity Sub-Saharan Africa corporate issuer and frst Sub-Saharan Africa telco outside South Af- rica will be selling bonds, and the lowest ever coupon for an inaugural Nigerian corporate issuance at 8.375%. The fnal allotment by re- gion shows the spread of ap- petite for Nigeria-exposed companies in attractive sec- tors. Uniform Mortgage Underwriting Standards Mortgage loans as % of GDP UK, 81% USA, 73% South Africa, 32% India, 5.8% Brazil, 5.5% Russia, 2.7% Nigeria, 0.55% Source: Dunn Loren Merrifeld Source: Central Bank of Nigeria The importance of uniform mortgage underwriting stan- dards across the diferent states jurisdictions has been emphasized by Sonnie Ayere, chief executive of the Nigerian Mortgage Ref- nance Com pany. He was speaking at a two-day workshop with the theme Uniform Underwriting Standards for Mortgage Loans. Four states, Kogi, Abia, Enugu, and Akwa Ibom, have expressed their interest to participate in the standardization of terms for access to mortgages. NMRC is a secondary mortgage fnancing institution. The company was launched by President Goodluck Jonathan in January 2014. Oando Wins the Medal Oando Energy Resources Inc. (OER), a Toronto-listed E&P company, has completed the acquisition of Medal Oil Company Limited. OER issued 3,491,082 units of one common share and one-half of one war- rant for each Medal Oil share. The total consideration was $5 million. Medal Oil holds a 5% interest in OML 131, a deep- water license covering 297,600 acres. ConocoPhillips owns the remaining interest in the block. Godwin Emefele, the Central Bank of Nigeria gov- ernor, is slowly learning the importance of Centralbank- ese, a unique language spoken by central bankers around the world. It is noted for its abil- ity to obfuscate listeners, be- ing non-committal, and never revealing what the speaker plans to do. Alan Greenspan once said that if I seem undu- ly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said. Emefele has got of on the wrong foot. Shortly after he resumed ofce, he called a big press conference to say exactly what he plans to do. Thankfully, he has kept mar- kets guessing about exactly how he plans to achieve those goals: lower interest rates, a stable exchange rate, and free capital fow. Next week, he chairs his frst monetary policy com- mittee meeting (MPC). Analysts do not expect that he will cut rates anytime soon. Alan Cameron, a London- based economist at CSL, who was polled by Reuters explained that we do not see any chance of rates being cut at Julys MPC, much less as infation continues to creep up ahead of elections. REGULATORY Waiting on Mr. Emeele 2014 April May June Inter-Bank Call Rate 10.50 10.63 10.63 Minimum Rediscount Rate (MRR) Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) 12.00 12.00 12.00 Treasury Bill Rate 11.26 10.13 9.98 Savings Deposit Rate 3.42 3.41 3.42 1 Month Deposit Rate 8.19 8.27 8.46 3 Months Deposit Rate 9.38 9.42 9.30 6 Months Deposit Rate 10.07 9.76 9.52 12 Months Deposit Rate 9.69 9.29 9.19 Prime Lending rate 16.70 16.50 16.50 Maximum Lending Rate 25.63 25.76 26.07 Money Market Indicators (In Percentage) COMMENTARIAT 7 VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 ConocoPhillips Acreage Facility OML 131 deepwater oil block HIGH TABLE ART AS AN ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT The Raw Deal Raw meat is not for every- one. Since the invention of fre by Paleolithic man, many fnd the consumption of unprepared meat unconscionable. Boiled, fried, grilled, steamed, and just about any other heat applica- tions is preferred to raw meat. But do we go too far in the preparation of meat draining out all its soul in the process? In Nigeria, our obsession to attain a parasite destruction guarantee by boiling beef and chicken to its second death is common. Meat is left too long in a boiling pot, which extricates all the nutrients, and favour in it. Not satis- fed, most cooks go further to certify the meat ofcially dead by incubating it in a brothy soup or stew. Then they rely almost completely on its stock to breathe new life into it. However through the course of history and spanning dif- ferent parts of the world, raw delicacies have emerged for numerous reasons; practical or otherwise. An example dates back to 1950 in Venice, where an ail- ing aristocratic lady went to dine at the famous Harrys Bar. When Giuseppe Cipriani, the owner, was informed that his guest was on strict medi- cal instructions to have only uncooked meat, he went ahead to shave thin slices of raw beef, which he served it with mus- tard sauce. He named it Car- paccio because the dish resem- bled the red hues and tones of the painter Vittore Carpaccio whose works were being exhib- ited in Venice at the time. Closer to home in Africa are the Ethiopians, swear by kitfo, an African steak tartare, served with local Ethiopian spices and cheeses, and tere sega, a ceremonial dished served at weddings. Anthropologists suggest that due to the numerous wars in the Abyssinian region, soldiers ate their meat raw as a protective measure. Had meat been cooked in war time the smoke and smell would alert their enemies. There are several examples of raw food consumption from around the world. Ceviche (seafood cooked in the citric acid of lime), crudo, an Ital- ian version of ceviche, steak tartare, and of course, sushi, perhaps the most famous of raw diets. Originally from Japan, the combination of rice and raw fsh (sushi) was borne out of necessity. The vinegary rice was initially used as a pickling agent for the fsh. Sushi as we know it today evolved as a freshwater delicacy during the Edo dynasty (1603 - 1868). In Nigeria, Bungalows Res- taurant, which has a mouth- watering 20-page menu, including sushi ofers an au- thentic izakaya (Japanese pub) experience. I ordered the Salmon nigiri, my sushi of choice in Lagos. The chef did not disappoint. I would also recommend the sushi at Fusion Restaurant and the Avenue Suites. Although it has been a while, the greyish tint of the last salmon nigiri I ordered once at Bonzai on Akin Adesola Street in Victoria Island leaves me scared to rec- ommend it. The slightest per- ception of contamination with raw food is enough to make an unsold diner run for the hills, especially in Naija! But my top pick for sushi would have to be Izanagi. Since it opened in June 2012, it has built a reputation for giving VIP service to its regulars. For the faint hearted diner, a salmon roll is probably a good entrance dish to the world of raw sushi. It is an easy entre es- pecially if you have had smoked salmon since the texture is simi- lar. A note of caution though. The taste is markedly diferent. The combination of the sweet vinegary rice with the silky deli- cious fsh is a taste once acquired can be highly addictive. So order up and welcome the advent of Japanese restau- rants in Lagos. The cleaner, healthier Lagosian palate is here to stay. ; Ify Oji is a lawyer, writer and food lover. She is the creator of the GidiTang.com (synonym: Lagos Flavour) blog on food and drink in Lagos. teamlogiclimited@gmail.com Avenue Suites 1390 Tiamiyu Savage Street, Victoria Island Bungalows Restaurant 1296 Akin Adesola Street, Victoria Island, Lagos Fusion Restaurant 1C, Ozumba Mbadiwe Street, Victoria Island, Lagos Izanagi Japanese Cuisine 19B Idejo Street, Victoria Island, Lagos EDITOR: MIDENO BAYAGBON GROUP BUSINESS EDITOR: OMOH GABRIEL CONTENT DIRECTION: OBIORA TABANSI ONYEASO DESIGN & ILLUSTRATION: PUBLICAN MEDIA Vanguard Markets features unbiased, in-depth coverage of corporate and market developments across a wide range of business sectors. Every week, Vanguard Markets delivers essential business analysis and commentary on Nigerian companies, regional economies, and global markets. Vanguard Markets is published by Vanguard Media Limited in associa- tion with Customs Street Advisors Limited, a specialist communications consultancy. Vanguard Media Limited, Vanguard Avenue, Kirikiri Canal, P.M.B.1007, Apapa. Website: www.vanguardngr.com ISSN 0794-652X Published by In Association With Last week, on Art as an Al- ternative Investment, we took a look at the top ten sales of Nigerian art. The 2014 edi- tion of Africa Now, organized by Bonhams, an international auction house, featured 120 lots from established names including Ben Enwonwu, Yu- suf Grillo, El Anatsui, and Bruce Onobrakpeya. The most valuable sale was a 1976 oil painting Princes of Mali by Ben Enwonwu at 92,500. As new records are set for Nigerian and African art on the international market, it is imperative to examine the in- dices that determine the value of an artwork; authentic- ity, quality, rarity, condition, provenance and value. These factors must be considered all at once in order to make an informed decision when pur- chasing a work, They may be broadly categorized into three. Economic The laws of supply and de- mand are generally applicable to the sales of art. Rarity tends to enhance value. Works by prolifc artists tend to be less valued than those of artists who produced less. Likewise, works by deceased artists are generally more sought after. The rarity of a given work is also determined by how many similar examples exist. For example, a painting is usually worth more than a print or a lithograph while a surplus of artworks by a particular art- ist tends to cause a reduction in market price. However, if collectors suddenly become active as a result of a change in perceptions or their mate- rial circumstances, the market price tends to rise. Therefore, the value of art fuctuates de- pending on how keen collec- tors are and how much they are willing to pay for a piece. Work The quality of a given work, its aesthetic merits, its signif- cance within a larger context of artistic history and within the specifc context of an art- ists oeuvre, contribute to its overall value. The period in which a work was created is another factor in determining its price. Ap- praisers generally value works completed early in an artists career higher than those com- pleted later, as early works tend to be more unpredict- able, daring and passionate, owing to the artists desire to establish a strong reputation. Works of art that typify an artists aesthetic are also ap- praised higher than those un- characteristic of his oeuvre. Enwonwus most expensive work sold to date, the Daily Mirror fgures are fne ex- amples of his aesthetic and are representative of his well- known elongated, lithe forms, as well as geometric shapes borrowed from classical Afri- can sculpture. Other factors include the size of a work and medium of execu- tion. Generally, larger works of art are valued higher because of the degree of difculty involved. Sculptures in wood, bronze, metal or stone are also consid- ered more valuable than paint- ings. Traditional paint media like oil is valued higher than acrylic and watercolor, which in turn are usually worth more than prints or lithographs. The condition and the provenance of an artwork impact a given works value. For example, a painting that is ripped, water-damaged, discoloured, or extensively repaired may be signifcantly reduced in value. Works of art formerly owned by famous people usually command high prices, while established provenance like certifcates of sale, exhibition and publication history help resolve questions of authenticity, art-historical importance and enhance value. Artist Artists who are well-known and enjoy a rich history of col- lection mostly command more value than artists who are un- known. Several reasons can be adduced; education, years of practice, recognition including prizes and awards, profession- al afliations, publications, and exhibitions in signifcant galleries and museums. In conclusion, collections formed with passion and intel- ligence stand the test of time, both aesthetically and mon- etarily. In building a collec- tion that has huge investment potential, one must keep in mind its high liquidity factor, or marketability the rela- tive ease to sell all or part of the collection quickly and thus convert its value into cash. ; A Short Guide to Collecting Art Ben Enwonwus Seven wooden sculptures commissioned by the Daily Mirror in 1960. Sold for 361,250 incl. premium ARENA 8 VM| Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002 Oliver Enwonwu is the director of leading Lagos gallery, Omenka and president of the Society of Nigerian Artists. oliver@omenkamagazine.com Salmon nigiri dish