Equity SIP Stock Ideas

Equity SIP
Stock Ideas for Equity SIP

Scrip Recommendation
Bajaj Auto Ltd. Buy
HDFC Bank Buy
ITC Buy
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. Buy
Larsen & Turbo Ltd. Buy
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Buy
Reliance Industries Ltd. Buy
State Bank of India Buy
Investment Rationale
Second largest player in domestic motorcycle industry with market share of ~25% (YTD FY13); leader in the
domestic premium motorcycle segment
Brand positioning as a powerful bike manufacturer enables premium pricing strategy
Gain market share on the back of successful launches
New launches of Discover 125ST and Pulsar 200-NS have received strong response
Strong in-house R&D capability has enabled Bajaj to introduce new models time and again
Tie-up with KTM to further strengthen technological capabilities
Market leader in domestic passenger 3W segment with market share of ~49% YTD FY13
Maintain momentumin exports- 36% of volume comes from exports of motorcycles and 3Ws
Diversified regional and product mix reduces business risks
Exports contribution to net sales has increased from 12% in FY06 to 35% in FY12
Key markets Africa, Asia and Latin America
3W exports (54% of total 3W sales) helps Bajaj tide over regulated domestic 3W market
Strong distribution network
Flexible cost structure enables highest EBITDA margin in the industry
Bajaj enjoys highest EBITDA Margin in the industry of close to 19%
Bajaj Auto Ltd
Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg
Price Performance
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
(Rs mn)
EBITDA
(Rs mn)
Adj. PAT
(Rs mn)
Adj. EPS
(Rs)
Change
(YoY)
P/E
(x)
RoE
(%)
RoCE
(%)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
2012 188,803 37,200 31,381 110 29.2 - 58 74 -
2013E 202,287 39,213 30,887 107 (2.6) 20.0 46 64 13.8
2014E 236,042 48,393 38,230 132 23.8 16.2 46 65 10.8
2015E 284,186 58,239 45,424 157 18.8 13.6 44 61 8.5
Financial Summary
Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg, Capitaline
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BSE_SENSEX Bajaj Auto
MARKET DATA
No. of Shares : 2893mn
Free Float : 50%
Market Cap : Rs602.46 bn
52-week High / Low : Rs 2,229 / Rs 1,423
Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 254162 shares
Bloomberg Code : BJAUT IN
Promoters Holding : 50%
FII / DII : 17% / 8%
BSE Code : 532977
NSE Code : BAJAJ-AUTO
CMP: 2,082
Consistent operational performance:
HDFC Bank has delivered a consistent operational performance over a period of 10 years.
The company commands premium valuation over its peers due to its (a) Strong Retail Franchisee, (b) Focus on
Working Capital Loans and (c) Large share of Secured Retail Loans.
Considerable pricing power and high CASA deposits has contributed to high net interest margin (Dec12: 4.2%)
which is one of the best in the industry .
HDFC Bank earns a significant portion of its non-interest income from fee based income.
Around 80% of HDFC Banks non-interest income comes from fee income.
The sources of fee income broad based which makes the bank less vulnerable to volatile swings in the fee
income revenue.
The bank also has considerable scope for generating fee income from its group companies i.e. HDFC
Standard Life, HDFC AMC and HDFC Securities
HDFC Bank boasts of one the best asset quality amongst the private sector banks. In fact, the Net NPAs of HDFC
Bank have remained well below the 1% mark over the past several years. As on Dec 2012, the Gross and the Net
NPAs of the bank have been 1% and 0.20%, respectively.
HDFC Bank on account of a better CASA, higher NIMs and a robust asset quality has one of the best ROAs in the
industry of 1.7% (FY12).
For qtr ending dec12, HDFC Bank has performed in line with our expectation and we hence recommend it for SIP
HDFC Bank
Price Performance
Source: Company, Axis Capital estimates
Y/E Mar
PAT (Rs mn) EPS (Rs)
EPS chg
(%)
PE (x)
Book value
(Rs)
Adj. BV
(Rs)
P/ABV
(x)
RoE
(%)
RoA
(%)
Net NPA
(%)
2012
51,671 22 31.2 24.4 127 126 4.3 18.7 1.7 0.2
2013E
67,245 29 30.1 23.1 150 149 4.5 20.6 1.8 0.2
2014E
83,437 36 24.1 18.7 179 177 3.7 21.6 1.9 0.2
2015E
102,746 44 23.1 15.1 216 214 3.1 22.2 1.9 0.2
Financial Summary
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BSE_SENSEX HDFC Bank
MARKET DATA
No. of Shares : 2,368mn
Free Float : 77%
Market Cap : Rs1,513bn
52-week High / Low : Rs705 / Rs468
Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 2.5 mn shares
Bloomberg Code : HDFCB IB Equity
FII / DII : 34% / 9%
BSE Code : 500180
NSE Code : HDFCBANK
CMP: 639
ITC- the leading cigarette manufacturer in India with an 84% share of the market by value & key brands
dominating the category with offerings at each price point.
ITC has now emerged as a diversified conglomerate with a leading presence in consumer products, paperboard,
the agribusiness and hotels.
ITC has consciously worked towards reducing its dependence from Tobacco segment (accounts for 58% to gross
revenues and 81% to EBIT) and use the strong cash flows from the tobacco business to fund its diversified business
Agri Business, Hotels, FMCG, Paper business etc. ITC has been able to pass on the price rise (due to duty hikes and
other reasons) by changing the product mix (recent launch of 64 mm stick (which attracts 56% of duty on 70 mm
stick) has received good response, will be contributing to volume growth going forward)
Being significant player in the premium value added paperboard segment with integrated pulping operations ITC
has a sustained market leadership, enjoys higher EBIT margins of about 23.9% (FY12) much above the industry
average. ITC is currently carrying out capacity expansion, backward integration, improving product mix and de-
bottlenecking processes which will also mirror the costs reduction and costs management processes.
ITC is pursuing an aggressive investment led growth strategy in its hotel business. ITC Gardenia, Bengaluru -
launched in the Q4FY10 has delivered profit in the first year of operations. The construction of a super luxury
property, ITC Grand Chola, at Chennai is now complete and slated to open in early 2012-13. ITC also has a
property in Kolkata which is expected to be operational by FY13E / FY14E. We believe that the rapid expansion of
the hotel properties will meaningfully contribute to profits in the forthcoming years.
ITC
Price Performance
Financial Summary
Source : Capitaline , Bloomberg , FY13E & FY14E figures are Bloomberg Consensus Estimates
Y/E
Mar
Sales
(Rs cr)
PAT
(Rs cr)
EPS
(Rs)
RONW
(%)
P/E
(x)
P/BV
(x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
2011 22,575 5,069 5.8 32.7 31.7 8.8 17.3
2012 26,552 6,322 7.4 35.1 31.7 9.46 18.01
2013E 30200 7319 9.2 34.9 30.0 10.3 19.5
2014E 34,914 8,615 10.9 37.0 25.5 9.35 16.66
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BSE_SENSEX ITC
MARKET DATA
No. of Shares : 787.82mn
Free Float : 100%
Market Cap : Rs 2,398.14 bn
52-week High / Low : Rs 202 / Rs 311
Bloomberg Code : ITC IN
FII / DII : 18.8% / 33.7%
BSE Code : 500875
NSE Code : ITC
CMP: 304
Integrated steel producer (3 mtpa) & largest coal based sp. iron manufacturer with capacity of 1.37 mtpa
Majorly present in long products, capable of producing longest rails (~120 mtrs).
Operational 1,000 MW running at optimum capacity; additional thermal power projects of ~4,380 MW are in
various stages of implementation
The power generation units use reject coal, make a PBT of Rs 1-1.5/unit @ Rs 4/unit of realization.
Vertically integrated (100% coal for steel and power generation and partial integration for iron ore).
Coal mines located close to the production base keeps cost of production low.
Pioneer in manufacturing large sized H- beams & columns for Infra & Construction Ind.s
Ph 1 of 1.6 mtpa is on track for completion by end FY13. Ph 2 expansion of 5.5 mtpa of steel capacity along with 6
mtpa pellet plant is proposed at an expense of Rs 160,000 cr.
Iron ore sourcing will be thro a) additional quasi captive mining of 7 mtpa for which approvals are in place & b)
tie ups with pvt. Miners.
Indonesian coal mines expected to start in FY13 with cash cost of $30/tn
Steel volumes are expected to increase in FY13 & FY14 led by ramp up of existing capacity & Angul project.
EBIDTA margins of existing power business of 1,000MW are amongst the highest in India due to captive coal &
merchant tariff.
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
Price Performance
Y/E Mar
Sales
(Rs bn)
PAT
(Rs bn)
Consensus
EPS* (Rs)
EPS
(Rs)
Change
(YoY %)
P/E
(x)
RoE
(%)
RoCE
(%)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
DPS
(Rs)
2011
131 38 - 40.2 - - 30.2 22.4 - -
2012
182 40 - 42.9 6.8 - 24.5 18 - -
2013E
184 41 42.1 43.7 1.9 8.7 20.1 15.7 6.7 239
2014E
194 43 47.5 45.8 4.7 8.4 17.5 13.8 6.2 283
Financial Summary
Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital estimates
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BSE_SENSEX Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
MARKET DATA
Free Float : 41%
Market Cap : Rs396.41bn
Bloomberg Code : JSP IB
FII / DII : 22.2% / 6.4%
BSE Code : 532286
NSE Code : JINDALSTEEL
CMP: 424
L&T is the most credible investment play in India and has adapted and evolved across economic cycles, leading
to strong 'delivery even during turbulent times.
Order inflow reviving after the lull in FY12; albeit at a gradual pace: Having delivered a strong 25% CAGR since
2000, L&Ts order inflow plummeted into the negative zone for the first time in FY12 (-12%). We expect its order
inflow growth to revive in FY 2013 (+14% YoY to Rs 799 bn). L&Ts total order backlog of Rs 1,623bn (2.75x FY12 sales)
as on 9M Fy2013; provides strong visibility over the next 2 years making it better placed to withstand a difficult
environment compared to its peers.
Value unlocking of unlisted subsidiaries: L&T is focusing on portfolio rationalization (hiving off businesses which
cannot achieve a critical size), value unlocking (target at least 4 listed Cos by 2020) & asset monetization / churn.
(For instance, recent stake sale talks of Dhamra Port and development of spare land parcel @ Powai).
Focus on increasing the share of international business: The current phase of slowdown in domestic business is a
wake-up call and the attempt going forward is not to depend on any single economy for growth. Hence the
process of internationalization will accelerate now and the target is to increase the share of international business
to 25% by 2016 from 15% currently.
Focusing on improving RoCE by lowering capex and equity commitments: Management targets ROCE of 20% by
2016 from 16% currently; by limiting capex, lowering investment in IDPL, no new BOT projects and maintaining its
EBITDA margin.
Larsen & Turbo Ltd
Price Performance
Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital. # Valuations adjusted for VOI of Rs 329/shr
Y/E
Mar
Sales (Rs
mn)
EBITDA (Rs
mn)
Adj PAT (Rs
mn)
Con. EPS*
(Rs.)
EPS (Rs.)
Change
YOY (%)
P/E (x) RoE (%)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
DPS
2012 525,451 66,922 45,230 - 73.9 33.8 15.5 19.2 10.8 14.5
2013E 601,636 70,604 46,919 78.4 76.6 3.7 14.9 17.3 10.7 15
2014E 700,533 79,340 53,345 87 87.1 13.7 13.1 17.1 9.2 17.1
2015E 811,814 91,056 61,704 99 100.8 15.7 11.4 17.3 10.7 19.8
Financial Summary
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BSE_SENSEX Larsen & Turbo Ltd
MARKET DATA
Free Float : 100%
Market Cap : Rs932 bn
Bloomberg Code : : LT IB Equity
FII / DII : 17% / 37%
BSE Code : 500510
NSE Code : LT
CMP: 1,515
Market leader in domestic passenger vehicle segment with MS of ~37% YTD FY13
New product launches (New Alto, Ertiga) met with huge success
Maruti to be a key beneficiary of increase in car penetration in India
Largest dealer network comprising of 1305 dealers and sales network panning 801 cities
Well placed to capitalize on rural demand
Recovery in volumes coupled with higher ASPs to augur well for Maruti
Strong sales momentum continues in higher ASP models like Swift, Dzire and Ertiga
Increase in diesel capacity to aid volume growth
Cut in interest rates to revive the small car market
Exports to register steady growth
Shifting focus to Africa from Europe
Margin set to improve driven by
Lower discount and higher diesel engine capacity
Operating leverage
Higher localization to reduce vulnerability to forex fluctuations
Huge investments lined-up over the next few years
Increase in diesel capacities by .3 mn to .6mn, entailing a capex of Rs 17 bn .15 mn to be completed by
H2FY13E and balance by FY14
To set up greenfield plant in Gujarat with capacity of .5 mn units with investment of Rs 40 bn commence
operations by FY14/15
Setting up R&D facility at Rohtak with investment of Rs 20 bn
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd
Price Performance
Y/E Mar
Sales
(Rs mn)
Adj. PAT
(Rs mn)
Con. EPS*
(Rs.)
EPS
(Rs)
Chg YoY
(%)
P/E
(x)
RoE
(%)
RoCE
(%)
EV/
EBITDA
(x)
2012 347,059 16,352 - 56.6 (28.6) 23.8 11.3 8.9 12.7
2013E 401,765 18,446 66.8 63.8 12.8 25.1 11.5 9.8 12.6
2014E 472,759 29,602 96.4 102.4 60.5 15.6 16.3 15.9 7.9
2015E 595,069 39,087 119.8 135.3 32 11.8 18.3 19.5 5.5
Financial Summary
Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg, Capitaline
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BSE_SENSEX Maruti Suzuki India Ltd
MARKET DATA
Free Float : 46%
Market Cap : Rs462bn
52-week High / Low : Rs1,608 / Rs1052
Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 826,868 shares
Bloomberg Code : MSIL IB Equity
FII / DII : 23% / 14%
BSE Code : 532500
NSE Code : MARUTI
CMP: 1,626
D6 production to stabilize from FY15; incremental production from FY16-17: RIL-BP JV would expedite exploration
drilling in the D6 block by adding one more rig by July 13. However, gas production from D1/D3 block would
continue to drop till FY14 due to sand ingress and high water cut. The JV would be able to arrest decline in the
field only from FY15. Also, incremental production from satellite/ R-series fields would come from FY16-17.
4-point plan for improving refining profitability: Management indicated it would be targeting improvement in
refining profitability through (a) using heavier crude basket, which would reduce raw material costs, (b) superior
energy efficiency, (c) better sourcing of heavier and cheaper crude, and (d) access to high value markets due
to geographic advantage.
Polyester margins firm up: Management expects polyester outlook to improve going forward as lower industry-
wide polyester inventories would support margins. record Chinese procurement has led to firm cotton prices;
thereby benefiting polyester margins. We expect polyester margins to remain strong aided by structural increase
in cotton prices and improvement in polyester demand.
Structural driver in place for improvement in polymer margins: Polymer margins will improve over next 3-4 years led
by firstly; Demand outstripping supply (Growth in demand (4.3% pa) would outstrip growth in capacity (3.8%) over
next 5 years, providing support to polymer margins) & secondly higher utilization (Ethylene cracker utilization rates
are likely to reach 87-88% over next 3-4 years (~85% currently), which would boost cracking margins).
Shale gas: 50% volume CAGR over FY12-15: Management is aiming to increase shale gas volumes by over 50%
over next 3 years. Most US explorers are incrementally targeting more rigs to oil due to better profitability, which
has led to ~50% surge in Henry Hub gas prices. This has resulted in a huge increase in futures prices as well. With
increased exports of natural gas from US, gas prices would remain high in the medium term, improving returns for
explorers like RIL.
Reliance Industries Ltd
Price Performance
Y/E Mar
Sales
(Rs mn)
Adj.PAT
(Rs mn)
Consensu
s
EPS* (Rs)
EPS
(Rs)
Change
YoY (%)
P/E
(x)
RoE
(%)
RoCE
(%)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
DPS
(Rs)
2012 3,585,010 200,330 - 61.3 (9.0) 12.2 12.4 11.6 7.2 6.3
2013E 3,274,631 200,512 - 62.2 1.6 13.8 11.4 11.4 8.2 7
2014E 2,779,043 213,542 67.9 66.1 6.2 13 11.1 11.8 7.4 7
2015E 2,824,042 239,453 72.9 74 11.8 11.6 11.3 13 6.3 7
Financial Summary
Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital estimates
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BSE_SENSEX Reliance Industries Ltd
MARKET DATA
Free Float : 47%
Bloomberg Code : RIL IB Equity
FII / DII : 18% / 11%
BSE Code :500325
NSE Code : RELIANCE
CMP: 875
Largest public sector bank in India with a 61.6% government stake:
SBI being a leading bank has a strong share of fee income owing to its strong business and corporate
relationships.
The bank also earns a sizeable amount of fee income from its group companies engaged in other businesses.
SBI also has interests in several other business through its group companies viz:
Life insurance (SBI Life Insurance Company Pvt. Ltd.)
General insurance (SBI General Insurance Company Ltd.)
Asset management (SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd.)
Government securities (SBI DFHI Ltd.)
Factoring (SBI Global Factors Ltd.) and
Investment banking (SBI Capital Markets Pvt. Ltd.)
SBI has a strong CASA franchisee with 46% of its deposits coming from current account and savings accounts.
Further, the banks focus on retail credit over the last few years has provided SBI with the necessary growth
momentum. In fact, SBI reported NIMs to the tune of 3.6% in Q1 against management guidance of 3.7% for
FY12.
SBI is also a potential candidate for value unlocking in the forthcoming years. Out of 6 associate banks - State
Bank of Travancore, State Bank of Mysore and State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur are already listed. The
management has expressed its intent to unlock value in the remaining associate banks (State Bank of Patiala,
State Bank of Indore and State Bank of Hyderabad). This would unlock value for SBI in the next 2-3 years in a
benign market environment.
State Bank of India
Price Performance
Source: Company, Axis Capital; *P/Adj. BV and P/E calculated after deducting value of investment from price and cost of investment from BV
Y/E Mar
PAT
(Rs mn)
EPS
(Rs)
EPS chg
(%)
PE
(x)
Book value
(Rs)
Adj. BV
(Rs)
P/ABV
(x)
RoE
(%)
RoA
(%)
Net NPA
(%)
2012 117,073 174 34 12 1,251 1,100 1.9 15.7 0.9 1.8
2013E 150,480 220 26.3 8.6 1,441 1,216 2 16.5 1 2.4
2014E 187,114 274 24.3 6.9 1,650 1,409 1.7 17.7 1.1 2.2
2015E 230,848 338 23.4 5.6 1,909 1,659 1.5 19 1.2 2
Financial Summary (standalone)
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BSE_SENSEX St Bk of India
MARKET DATA
Free Float : 38%
52-week High / Low : Rs2,550 / Rs1,749
Bloomberg Code : SBIN IB Equity
FII / DII : 10% / 17%
BSE Code : 500112
NSE Code : SBIN
CMP: 2,351
Disclaimers
This document has been prepared by AXIS Securities Ltd * Privileged Client Group. Affiliates of AXIS Securities Ltd * focused on Institutional Equities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach
different conclusion from the information presented in this report. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating and target price of the
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